Entry is Key...Exit is Everything! TM

 

Option Plays - AAPL

The trades below are for educational purposes only.

They are not recommendations to purchase any particular stock or options contract.

Note: they are suggested entry and exit points! disclaimer

 

Stock Information

Updated  7/29/18

Company Name: Apple Inc.

Stock ticker symbol: AAPL

 

Current Price: $207.39

Change:  +5.89 (+2.292%

 

52-week High: $208.38  (Pre-Split: $1,458.66)

52-week Low: $142.28

 

Weekly IV: 25.12%

  MMM  +/- 2.26  

 

Stats since last update: 

Institutional  61.80 -  SAME

Float - 4.67B -   SAME

Short Interest - 45.27 -  HIGHER

Market Cap - 1 TRILLION!   HIGHER

 

NEXT 7/31/18 AFTER

 

Trade Bias:

  Long Term Bullish

Trade Type:

Long Calls

Bull Call Spreads

Naked Puts

   

 

 

Open AAPL Trade Ideas -

 

Secondary Trade Strategies

Stock

Monthly

Collecting

Rent

Swing

Trades

Bull/Bear

180's

$GB

Shorts

DoubleUP!

Compounder

 Trades

 

Type

Symbol

Month

Week

Expiration

Strike

Type

Date

Posted

Strategy

Commentary

Signal

price

Entry

Range

High/Low

Filled Price

Exit

High

Max

P/L

Max

ROI%

Days

New Plays
                         
Open Plays

AAPL

AugWk2

8/10/18

205

Call

7/29/18

Earnings

Surprise

0.43

 Filled

7/30/18

0.42

Stop

set at $3.00

-

-

-

AAPL

AugWk3

8/17/18

205

Call

7/29/18

Earnings

Beat

0.58

 Filled

7/30/18

0.58

Stop

set at $3.50

     

AAPL

AugWk4

8/24/18

- 205

+ 200

Bull

Put

Credit

Spread

7/29/18

Earnings

Beat

4.05

Credit

 Filled

7/30/18

$4.30

Credit

-

     

AAPL

AugWk1

8/3/18

- 205

+ 200

Bull

Put

Credit

Spread

7/29/18

Earnings

Beat

4.05

Credit

 Filled

7/31/18

4.55

Credit

-

     

AAPL

AugWk1

8/3/18

175

Put

7/29/18

Earnings

MISS

0.35

 Filled

7/30/18

0.50

- -

-

-

AAPL

AugWk1

8/03/18

205

Call

7/29/18

Earnings

Surprise

0.26

 Filled

7/30/18

0.23

High

$3.50

 +3.27

+1,422%

14x

2
Long Term Plays

AAPL

Stock

Stock

Long

Stock

10/31/16

Accumulation

Holding

93.88

Filled

11/04/16

122.00

Long

Term

HOLD

-

-

-

AAPL

Stock

Stock

Long

Stock

10/16/16

Accumulation

Holding

118.00

Filled

11/04/16

118.00

Long

Term

HOLD

-

-

-

AAPL

Stock

Stock

Long

Stock

5/16/16

Accumulation

Holding

93.88

Filled

5/17/16

93.50

Long

Term

HOLD

-

-

-

AAPL

Stock

Stock

Long

Stock

1/3/16

Accumulation

Holding

106.03

Filled

$97.50

Long

Term

HOLD

-

-

-

AAPL

Stock

Stock

Long

Stock

6/9/15

Accumulation

Holding

127.42

Filled

124.00

Long

Term

HOLD

-

-

-

AAPL

Stock

Stock

Long

Stock

3/7/15

Accumulation

Holding

126.60

Filled

$122.00

Long

Term

HOLD

-

-

-

 

 

Commentary:

 

 

 

8/4/18 -  Another solid Lotto Trade WINNER on AAPL and we still have the swing trade on for even MORE to come!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8/2/18 -  And we have the WINNER!! AAPL hits a Trillion bucks and OptionRadio Subscribers hit another LOTTO TRADE!!!! Congrats if you were in it to win it!

 

Now that the hottest tech company on planet earth has made stock market history, the question is, can they hold the Trillion line and how long will it take them to get to 2 Trillion? It is an amazing thing to see happen and now we will find out what kind of agenda they will have in the future. Will they go on a buying spree for other vertical markets? I have been saying for some time now that they may just buy out NFLX and DIS, but now that NFLX has grown so quickly, it seems that just does not make sense anymore; however, I am still buying my wildcard Lotto Trades each week up to 20% OTM when I can get in for $0.10 or lower.

 

Here is a visual to help you size up how much a Trillion Dollars is:

 

 

 

 

As we continue the journey to the land of profitability, we want to remember to keep those fishing orders in play each week; and you will have the opportunity to have one of these Million Dollar stacks of your own!

 

 

 

 

 

I closed half my positions today and hope to see more when trading begins, but if AAPL does not head higher after the first 5 minutes, I will close out this weeks Lotto Trades and let next weeks ride.

 

 

Profits UP!

 

 

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7/31/18 -  AAPL posts a nice beat and grows it's iPhone business with "higher" priced phones. Stock jumps to new all-time-highs in after hoarse and looks like $200 will be taken out this week! The company reported growth gains in China for the pricier iPhone X which is a nice shift from 2016 numbers. Also, they are growing business in their services divisions (Music, ApplePay, iCloud) and that is where they can expand growth a lot more as the iPhone hits saturation levels.  The CEO said in the conference call, “we feel great about Services momentum” and reiterates the target they can double annual Services revenue to $50B by 2020. The company also grew Apple Music by 50% Y/Y and their wearable's revenue hit $10B in the last four quarters. Needles to say, they are just printing money and now has $243.7B in cash plus marketable securities kicking in another $129.1B.

 

This good news will put a strong catalyst for higher prices the rest of this year as we head into their biggest selling season so selling credit spreads is a solid bet—I am hoping to see the stock blow through $200 tomorrow so we can cash in on another Lotto Trade!

 

 

 

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7/29/18 -  This week we get the quarterly earnings report from AAPl and it should provide a good catalyst to move this stock to new all time highs and attack the $200 price level. With AMZN surprising, it started to tack on some decent gains, but succumbed to profit taking into the Friday close; however, after this blowout earnings report, the stock tacked on a huge SGB Friday, so until that is taken out, AAPL is still the leader of the race to trillions.—a couple of months ago, there was a bullish bet touted by a popular analyst saying Amazon's stock price will reach $2,100 a share in the next 12 months which would put their market cap over $1.02 Trillion if it happens, so the question now is will AAPL be beat to the trillion dollar millennial-stone by AMZN?

 

Well, if AAPL misses, that may impeded their trek to trillions because we are heading into the biggest buying season of the year in a few months and AMZN sells a lot more stuff than AAPL, in fact, about three-fifths of AAPL revenue is from the iPhone segment, so any lost momentum there could give Amazon the boost they need to be "king-of-the-market-cap-world!"

 

Another thing to consider, even if AAPL miss estimates, is they also have the holiday shopping season and upgrade cycle coming, so I do not think the stock will get whacked like FB was; especially since Warren Buffet is a heavy investor and AAPL has a multi-billion dollar buy back in place. Of course, anything can and does happen, so you have to just work the Lotto Trade formula and place your orders; and you will assuredly get rewarded over a years time.

 

 

 

 

 

Bias is still very Bullish on this stock:

 

 

No big directional bets on Friday but we need to keep an eye on this tomorrow and Tuesday for clues.

 


 

 

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6/19/18 -  With trade wars looming, many investors are fearful that China could put a huge tariff on Apple products and that could kill profits for the massive tech giant. Could it kill the hopes of them becoming the first "trilion dollar" company? Hmmm, maybe AMZN will beat  em there since AAPL sold off and AMZN made new all time highs today in the face of a market sell off over China trade wars. Allegedly, it appears that President Trump may have assured AAPL that his current moves to curb China's exploits of the USA on trade imbalances will NOT include AAPL—the White House denies this of course.

 

Hmmm, you've got to think that there is a chess game going on here; and with AAPL manufacturer Foxconn opening up a North American headquarters in Milwaukee, that could be some insight this whole trade war saber rattling is overblown—or AAPL knew this was coming and needed to get out of China to avoid production delays etc. ; and also have more control over their manufacturing process here in the USA. Bottom line here is they know a heck of a lot more about what is going on in that world than we will ever know, so you and I just have to keep trading what we see; and fishing for those sweet spots to hook a Moby Dick Lotto Trade!

 

With Warren Buffet heavily invested, and AAPL buying back millions of shares, any drop will always be met with more buyers than sellers. One way to look at this is the company currently pays out a $0.73 cent dividend quarterly, so any institutional investors are more than willing to absorb a drop of the full value of a years dividends ($2.92 per share) and/or look to buy in incrementally at each interval the stock may drop by that much. We know things can get ugly on the downside and AAPL is not immune so we need to be diligent in watching for SGB's and around earnings with our PUT fishing so we can be in it to win it when Moby Dick shows up in the future.

 

If the stock continues to slide lower, I am fishing for Lotto Calls at T2 and T3. I expect any selling will be met with buyers especially at the 89MA on the daily chart. The TTM squeeze indicator has not fired but it is showing momentum is about to break to the downside; therefore, if we see any red dots appear, and there is another SGB, then I am looking for more long plays.

 

 

 

 

 

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5/13/18 -  Another successful Lotto Trade on AAPL earnings!! The stock exploded higher off good earnings and then a couple days later news that Warren Buffet took a 75 MILLION share position in the company and they announced a 100B buyback ignited a huge continuation move in the tech giant...chaCHING! Now the stock has some massive momentum and should just keep right on climbing from here. Selling Bull Put Spreads and Naked Puts is a solid bet and then keep fishing on CALLS for DoubleUP! and swing trades as this stock is well on its way to $200 and beyond—all eyes a on the TRILLION dollar Market Cap which should put the stock around $205.00 per share, so we should expect some solid moves, barring no market wide corrections, and I will aggressively buy Lotto Calls on any dips of 3% - 5%.

 

Below is the results from the Lotto Trade that were very impressive indeed:

 

 

 

 

 

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4/30/18 -  Get ready for some shaking of the AAPL money tree and lets see what we can catch. I was filled on the puts but the call strike is expensive so I am going further OTM for the wildcard trade and a week more of time.

 

The weekly chart is in a triggered TTM SHORT squeeze and the stock attempted to move over the 200MA only to be smacked back down closing below it. If they miss, the expected MMM is +/- 6.85 and

 

 

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4/29/18 -  Time for earnings on the mighty AAPL this week and with the stock currently trading under the 200MA, things could get interesting if they report a miss—the drop could be well over 10% so I am fishing tomorrow and if not filled buying before close of trading on 5/1/18 15% OTM puts. On the CALL side I am fishing strikes at 10% OTM strikes and will decide on 5/1 if not filled tomorrow.

 

The MMM is around +/- $5.15 to $6.90, and with all the institutional investments in AAPL, it is most likely going to stick around that number; however, when a stock is trading at the 200MA, we can get some big time action on a surprise or upset.

 

With all the "privacy" issues at FB, the sentiment could spill over to AAPL, but they have always been a more reliant custodian of your data and information; however, they too are an intrusive bunch collecting, storing and using our data. The question is, how long will we as a society keep relinquishing our lives, history, habits and secrets into the hands of third parties who have monetary motivation to exploit us? That will take a ground shattering events multiple times before sentiment changes, so for now, it's full steam ahead for these tech companies.

 

Price is driven by profits, and if the iPhone 8 and X have slipped in growth, the drop in sales on the higher priced phones may not hold the line with revenue, and that would be the catalyst for a HUGE drop! What will be the next innovation for the company to continue growth? Maybe they start to morph into more of a media/entertainment and equipment company, by maybe, buying out NFLX or?? All I know is they are still the top dog in their world, but there is always pups coming up to take a place in the space and that gives us Lotto and White Whale opportunities, so keep laying those nets and we will catch the falling apples from the money tree.

 

Last quarter, the company only met expectation and sold off below the 200MA for a couple days; then some good news hit and a nice multi-day run from $150 - $170 kicked in. I am a bull on the company, and I love the products, but I did not upgrade to the new models yet because I am not a fan of the "face recognition" tech to date. What we have not heard is specifics on how the company plans to repatriate the billions of dollars back into the US; and now that we are 5 months into 2018, they could make some announcements this quarterly release that will start momentum back up—the anticipation is always high with AAPL and the IV is low so that makes for an opportunity!

 

For 2018, the stock is underperforming at a 4% loss, so if the stock moves below 10%, then fund managers start to take note and shift sentiment; however, if the move down is larger, the bargain shoppers are waiting so long as the forward statements reflect continued innovation and growth; otherwise, they would cancel their bids and the drop could be sub $143.00...maybe even drop all the way back to $120!

 

If the stock moves back over the 200MA on a good report, I am going to get a lot more aggressive on long plays so stay tuned.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11/1/17 -  The time has arrived and now we get to the most anticipated tech earnings release of 2017. Will AAPL have the usual news expected or the "wow" news that invigorates the big fund managers to hit the gas vs. the brakes. It all hinges on the future of X sales, so we may have the proverbial buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news event tomorrow if they just can't blow it out of the water. When CEO Tim Cook announced last Friday they have already sold out of the first round of X's (that is pre-order sold out like TSLA cars, but not delivered yet) the stock took off to new all time highs. Question is, will AAPL be able to deliver all of them; and will the new high-tech do all it's promised to do? For me, I am not all to enthused to have facial recognition, but I am a bit of an oldie and the naive millennial crowd just eats that life intrusion stuff up. The bias remains bullish even if they pull back post earnings—there are just too many whales invested in this sucker to let it drop too much.

 

With IV pumped up, it will be hard to get a huge return on Lotto Calls, so I am going with longer time to get things working. Initially, I will go with smaller size tomorrow; and see how the stock reacts to earnings; then I will step on the gas in the direction of momentum.

 

 

Some bigger bets placed on the puts side today?

 

 

 

 

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10/31/17 -  What a rise we have seen in AAPL since my last comments. The iPhone X is looking like it may be a massive success but that won't really be known until the first units roll off the shelves and we see how the new tech will interact with users. If they love it, then AAPL is on track for a massive cycle upgrade and a $200 price target, but if it turns out to be a bust, well, the drop is going to be a HUGE ONE but that will not be known until next quarter. The bet right now is up and that is also when you want to be fishing for puts because the upside is pretty much priced in so it is much harder to get a big Lotto trade to kick in. With the stock now at new all time high's, we are in for a potential parabolic move but remember, they split 7:1 so it takes a massive amount of volume to move this stock much greater than even 3-5% in a single day—but it can easily fall more than that.

 

The current MMM is +/- 7.88 which is about 4.5% and the open interest at that move is vey loaded so I do not anticipate a move much higher; therefore, I am looking at doing a ICU spread at $177.50 x 5 with a few wild card lotto calls and puts.

 

 

Extreme bullish bias on calls to puts...everyone wants in for the long haul.

 

 

HUGE spread trades into December most likely Institutional investing for the end of year portfolio balancing. There was one large 190 call trade and we will see if there are more tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8/2/17 -  Surprise quarter, new highs and nice Lotto Trade! Now the expectations are higher as the upcoming iPhone 8 release date approaches and we see the new gadgets and gizmos the phone maker can bring.

 

 

 

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7/30/17 -  AAPL earnings are Tuesday after the bell and the anxiety appears to be high with investors. On Thursday the stock was whacked for a second time but not as bad as it was back on 6/9/17. What was interesting is the wicks were almost identical but the second day of trading was stronger this time; however, we now have a DOJI sandwich setup which indicates another drop as big as the preceding one is plausible.  If they disappoint, the charts are showing a big drop is expected but a surprise and we get a multi-day rally. The short interest has dropped indicating bullish sentiment and the calls outpace the puts but not by much of a margin. The 10th anniversary was a dud so there has been building sentiment the tech-giant is losing its grip on innovation. This stock has repeatedly sandbagged earnings reports and given very profitable surprises so anything can and does happen when trading APPL. Friday the stock dead stopped at the SGB zone so my bias is down side for earnings weekly puts with wild card swing calls.

 

This stock is a good one for White Whale fishing and when you are looking for Lotto Trades, be sure to fish for lower entry prices.

 

 

 

 

 

No big bets placed so far.

 

 

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7/15/17 -  The move I was looking for came but at a snails pace. As we approach earnings season, AAPL appears to doing the usual grind higher as investors anticipate they will have a good quarter. News came out that they are delaying the next iPhone release due to some technical issues but that did not phase the stock at all this week. If you were following the SGB zones I noted below, then you are well on your way to nice profits and I am anticipating a retracement of that huge drop last month, so my initial target price this week is 151.21; and then the SGB zone at $152.55 - $154.21.

 

 

 

 

Notice the HUGE drop was preceded by a squeeze indicator and since the stock started to emerge out of the SGB zone the squeeze indicator has kicked in again. It is looking hopeful this week will start a breakout; however, the momentum is well underway and you can expect option IV to get pumped up so I am selling naked puts / bull put spreads and fishing with weekly Lotto calls up to 3% and Swing to 5% OTM in anticipation of a potential parabolic move.

 

 

 

 

Watching the time and sales for some BIG options action in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

I have been working on a tweak to my Lotto strategy; and when I have some hard data to share,

I will release the full details on the new www.LottoTrades.com website.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7/4/17 -  No big announcements last week for the 10th anniversary of the iPhone so out lotto trades did not work out. Now that the holiday is over, I am hopeful there will be some good movement to kick off the earnings season starting in a couple of weeks. The volatility should be picking up and with the close on Friday we have a bearish engulfing candle and a SGB so get read to trade off that zone! Until AAPL can take out the previous SGB zone at $147.55 all longs are suspect so I will keep fishing up to 5% OTM on the call side and short under SGB zones.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6/25/17 -  Below is comments from my new Chart Watch section to help my subscribers find good setups to trade from. This week is the 10th anniversary of the iPhone and we can expect some definite movement in AAPL. If they make a surprise announcement, we should get a multi-day move off the 89MA and possibly a spike 10% move taking the stock over $160! The 152.50 calls are dirt cheap right now with IV very low so that is my Lotto trade and I will be doing some closer strikes for Double UP! plays. A break of the 89MA is bearish; however, AAPL is a very loved stock with a huge dividend and share buy back so drops can be very controlled, but when the news is positive, the rise is long and profits are sweet as a Honey-crisp! 

 

 

 

 

 

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5/2/17 -  They miss estimates but no implosion of the share price because they increased the dividend to $0.63 as well as increasing the buy back another $50-Billion so we may not get a huge drop tomorrow, but we have until Friday for the Lotto puts to work. So, for me, the day trade bias is a short under $150 and a buy if it can get down to $123-125. With the dividend increase, there will be demand for the stock from fund managers 

 

Here are the highlights:

  • Q2 EPS $2.10, beatings estimates by $0.08; Sales came in at $52.9 billion, missing estimates by $70 million
  • Adds $50 billion to its buyback plans
  • Sees Q3 Sales of $43.5-$45.5 billion
  • Shipped 50.8M iPhones in Q2
  • Quarterly dividend was raised from $0.57 to $0.63/share
  • iPhone Units were down 1% YoY
  • iPad Units down 13% YoY
  • Mac Units were up 4%YoY

 

 

I will be looking for some Lotto and WW trades Thur/Fri

 

 

 

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5/1/17 -  Got a gap open that held ground all day as we head into the earnings announcement for tomorrow.

 

Call open interest is double from the weekend so a lot of bets are being placed they beat or do better. Now if they disappoint, the drop is going to potentially be HUGE.  I was filled on the puts and will have to buy into the front week calls tomorrow at the open. If the stock surprises, then I will sell naked puts post earnings.

 

 

Some huge put volume today out in Jul probably looking for some cheap premium collecting only $0.04—sell the tennies drive the Lamborghini

 

 

 

 

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4/30/17 -  Can the Big AAPL keep the momentum going this earnings season? Since my last comments the stock has been on a massive rally and now it looks to be losing steam as we approach a critical earnings quarter. If the company misses estimates, I see a lot of room for profit taking by the big fund and the stop could easily be 10% or higher. A surprise will kick off another large move with a target at $155.00. With IV pumped up, and earnings on Tuesday, I am going to go with some MayWk2 Lotto calls and front week for the puts. The company has saturated the US smart phone so I am sure all eyes are the growth prospects in China and India so a global miss will cause an avalanche of sorts; however, the company has billions to still spend on the share buybacks which can give the stock more of a controlled descent.

 

The lynchpin in AAPL's share price is the repatriation promise from the Trump administration; and whey the policy is finally proposed; AAPL stand to benefit immensely bringing back a Fort Knox of capital—this could mean larger dividend payments that will bring in more institutional money and move the stock much higher.

 

Apple Inc. AAPL, -0.10% has the most cash overseas of any U.S. company estimated around $230 billion, according to Moody’s Investors Service. In fact, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook has said he would be willing to bring that money home if it were not subject to the current U.S. corporate tax rate of about 35%—the company has repeatedly borrowed in the capital markets to fund multibillion-dollar returns to shareholders. With interest rates at historically low levels, the company has leveraged that cheap money to add low-cost debt to its balance sheet rather than incur a large tax bill tapping into their stockpile of overseas cash.

 

The future is definitely a mixed bag of sorts as many analyst have said for some time now that the company has lost its innovation euphoria, but with a boat load of cash coming back, they can easily buy all the innovation they need. As for the anchor product they are known for (iPhones), there are leaks out on the upcoming iPhone 7S showing a re-design removing the home key, adding wireless charging and a change in the camera orientation—will they jump models and go as iPhone 10 for the 10th anniversary of the amazing device?

 

The other rumors are saying the new iPhone may actually be delayed due to supply chain issues and manufacturing delays. Well, if they announce this amazing new phone; and then cannot deliver the goods for the demand; we will definitely see a nice drawdown in the stock (initially); and that is what we are hoping for as Lotto Trade fishers.

 

Ok, so what are the charts telling us about the future movements we can anticipate with AAPL? First off, we always take notice when SGB's show up and Thursday we had a DOJI SGB so we can anticipate a definite move coming. Also, the stock has been trading sideways inside the last largest move back in late March on declining volume. The short interest has grown larger since my last update but not really enough to cause a massive squeeze should they meet or beat; however, if they surprise, well, that could make a nice move over the course of a couple weeks so that is why I am going with swing calls this cycle.

 

If we do get the move higher, then I will be selling Naked Puts aggressively and if they miss, then I will be doing Naked & Covered Calls at the current SGB zone around $145.00. Long-term I am always looking for MORE shares to buy on any solid dips as I build my stockpile to collect the dividends and build a solid asset holding.

 

 

 

 

Big options buys on Friday

 

 

Crowd bias is bullish

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2/12/17 -  AAPL has made solid moves higher post earnings and shows not signs of giving any of it back. As we progress down the Trump Gold Brick Road, AAPL is the lead benefactor of repatriation and the big fund managers know it and are buying in. Selling Naked Puts or Spreads are pretty much a lock for making some bucks so that is what I plan to do on any pull backs. The momentum is building in the stock and and we may not even see a pull back so I am going to keep riding the wave and looking for opportunities to get some DoubleUP! plays on and Thur/Fri Lotto Trades.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1/31/17 -  Finally AAPL breaks the quarterly losing streak and beats estimates; however, margins are getting tighter and competition is still chipping away at their growth. Will it be enough to propel the stock to new heights tomorrow? I think it should give us a continuation of the post market move and with upside targets around $130.00. I am selling half my 125 calls at the open and will see where the rest may get to.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1/29/17 -  Can AAPL pull a innovation rabbit out of the hat this earnings season? The past three quarterly reports have missed revenue projections and it is expected they will beat this time with the new iPhone 7. Well, if that does not happen, we could see a very large drop in the stock; however, the multi-billion buy back is still there as well as a hefty dividend so any dips will most likely be bought. If they make a new product announcement that could spark a huge rally but it is anybody's guess and with the Trump administration getting under way, there will definitely be some interesting things coming down the road. If the company cannot innovate (as many believe) then they will have to incubate by buying other companies, technologies and creative talent. I plan on doing a few Lotto Calls however, I am going to wait until post earnings before I commit larger capital to some trades. The charts gave us a nice SGB breakout from my last comments and Friday it put in another one so if they disappoint, you can bet the stock will fall quickly to the 89MA and with out a major announcement and big beat, I am not seeing much upside nor are the Market Makers as the IV is very low at 35% so buying more time on Calls is pretty cheap and with the expected MMM at +/-3.81, it is not looking too exciting at the moment; however, that is when things can get explosive on unexpected news.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1/22/17 -  PERFECT PROOF Markets/Stocks can be MANIPULATED on opening and closing price! Why? because it is next to impossible that any stock would close exactly at the same price a couple days apart just like AAPL did today with another closing print at $120.00—which also happens to be a SGB!

 

Ok, enough conspiracy PROOF (lol), so lets get back to figuring out to exploit crazy circumstances like these, because I believe them to be  "code messages", and I want to always be ready to take on aggressive positions in the direction of the SGB's breakouts or breakdowns when I see anomaly price prints. AAPL is going to be a massive beneficiary of the coming Trump tax policies and big funds are definitely going to pile in because if they bring back the BILLIONS off shore, they are going to most likely to pay special dividends, invest in new technologies and buy things, so the growth story of stagnation will reverse and explode into a firestorm of enthusiasm.

 

 

 

 

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1/17/17 -  We have a SGB breakout setup pushing AAPL to a close today at the $120 whole number. When I see stocks close exactly on whole numbers, that is "code" to me they are about to make a move in that stock. So, we have a perfect pivot point with the SGB zone and currently the bias is long strategies over $119 and short strategies under $117.55.

 

 

 

 

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1/8/17 -  AAPL is dead stopped at the top of the double SGB zone and looks ready to start it's earnings run on positive markets this week. I plan on selling some Naked Puts and using that premium to buy some swing trade calls as I have no problem getting more shares put to me. If this current SGB zone proves to be another sell event like last time, then I will be selling Covered Calls on my current shares and buying puts under $116.

 

 

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1/3/17 -  Rough start for the first day of 2017 trading. The current SGB zone triggered a short so I took it but not so confident at the moment it will not hold and stop me out. Until AAPL takes out this SGB zone over $118.34, then I will stick with my short and if stopped out, I will wait and see how the stock trades over the next couple of day. If we do get a continuation to the downside, then I will be taking profits at or slightly above the 89MA and then looking for some Swing Calls. A move over 118.34 and I will start more aggressive bullish plays. With the inauguration coming and earnings season kicking off soon, expect some good volatility in the markets.

 

 

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12/29/16 -  For the final day of 2016 trading AAPL will finish inside a big SGB zone. This is a perfect pivot point to put on a straddle because I fully expect this stock to be a leader in either direction when we start 2017 trading next week. The upcoming earnings report will be critical to the direction of AAPL for the first half of 2017 and if we get a positive number, solid Trump administration transition along with much anticipated repatriation legislation, then AAPL is poised to be a major play again for all of 2017.  I bought a iPhone 7Plus and I have to say it is the BEST iPhone I have owned to date and I am expecting the numbers will be very strong. Once AAPL clears the current SGB zone, I am getting aggressively long and selling naked puts. If this stock fails the current SGB zone, then I will sell covered calls against my shares and buy puts, but for the most part of January trading,  I will be looking for call entry points into dips until earnings.

 

 

 

 

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12/26/16 - The multi-SGB zone was holding a lid over AAPL last week and heading into this final week of trading I am looking for AAPL to make a move one way or the other. My bias is still bullish so I want to see it break out over $117.55 and then I will get long shares with a hard stop at the last SGB around $116.00. If we get a downward move tomorrow, then I will be fishing for calls at the $117 strike or lower.

 

 

 

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12/18/16 - Another week up for AAPL ending Friday with a SGB at a big SGB zone. This completes 8 days and now we have a SGB Bear 180 setup so if the stock opens lower Monday it is a short with a stop at $116.89. The downside target is T3 $112.55.

 

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12/11/16 - Some decent upward movement in AAPL as we approach the end of 2016 trading. Investors are hopeful the tech giant can still prove it is the product must have in the mobile phone space, but if they do not get some other innovative things going into 2017, we could see this stock stagnate and trend lower for a very long time. I am confident the new Trump administration will be making huge changes in corporate circles, taxes and infrastructure so we will most likely see AAPL making some moves on other companies in the coming months and NFLX is a highly anticipated purchase. With the indexes at all-time-highs, we do not see AAPL doing it and Friday it actually closed back into the recent SGB zone. There is also that huge one at the $118 price level so the stock has more reason to go down than up the rest of this year; therefore, any longs should be cautious ones taking profits often.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11/24/16 - That DSW setup worked out as AAPL advanced almost the entire move of the previous session. Typically the DSW move happens the next day but this one took an extra day the turned into a SGB DOJI. Since this is a short trading week with the Thanksgiving holiday, I do not expect any really big moves tomorrow, but I am still going to do some WW fishing and pick up a couple puts and calls for next week. With a double SGB zone overhead, it will take some big news to move AAPL much higher but if the Black Friday sales news is positive, then I am expecting a gap up on AAPL or a big gap and drop down back to the 200MA. We are in the big sales season for AAPL and with no real competition now, the expectations on the stock will be high come the next earnings report. As we get news on the Trump administrations stance with corporate profit repatriation, this will no doubt but a big fire into AAPL investors and create plenty of volatility for us to benefit from!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11/17/16 - Nice rally yesterday setting up into a DSW today so if we get a positive open tomorrow, we could see AAPL make another strong continuation move equal to yesterday. This is a good WW setup so fishing in the open for the 112 calls is what I plan on doing as well as going long some shares.

 

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11/13/16 - Now that the elections are over, it's time to focus on the future of stocks like AAPL because the Trump administration will become pro business; and that means repatriation tax deals for companies like AAPL who has multi-billions off shore. If they bring that money back, I am certain the Trump deal will be based on using that money for expansion, jobs and maybe even acquisitions—like buying maybe NFLX?

 

The post election upset opened a can of whop-ass on Nasdaq stocks last Thursday, but investors jumped in on Friday and triggered a Level 1 Bull 180. If the stock moves over T2 Monday and holds for at least 15 minutes, then it becomes a Level 2 Bull 180 and then I am expecting the stock to reach T3 and beyond. If we get continued selling, then I will be looking for long plays at the 200MA which is intersecting with a previous SGB zone.

 

 

 

 

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11/06/16 - Shorting since my last comments has been a very profitable trade bias and now AAPL is testing the 89MA on the daily chart with a full 55%  retracement of that large bull elephant weekly candle. If we get the post election rally I expect the bargain hunters to be stepping on the gas so I am buying calls tomorrow. If AAPL falls under $104 I will be looking for Puts and selling some covered calls on shares I am holding for the long term.

 

 

 

 

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10/30/16 - No love for AAPL post earnings week as the stock slips lower into the next SGB zone. Until the stock can get back over $118 it is a Short Bias.

 

 

 

 

 

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10/25/16 - A beat, but not as much as anticipated so stock drifted lower in post down (3.25) at $115.00. This is looking like a sell the news event and lower prices with a confirmed SGB zone. So, now it has to get back over today's high to keep bulls interested for the rest of this year; however, any news they are going to go into more subscriber type vertical markets would greatly boost revenue and that would drive the stock higher as they wean off being ONLY a hardware product based company. The MMM was set at +/- $4.80 and its looking like AAPL will definitely not make it anywhere near that to the upside so far, so if we do not see a move back over today's high the selling Call premium is a good bet for this week and next. I plan to so some WW fishing the rest of this week and see if I can get a move like we had in NFLX last Friday.

 

 

 

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10/24/16 - Tomorrow is the day for AAPL to convince institutional investors they are more than relevant and consumers want the iPhone7. This is a BIG quarter to prove they can deliver, and if they do, this stock is on the way to new highs in the coming months. Of course the Samsung debacle is giving AAPL strong tail winds to boost market share and with movement in the media space (T buying TWX) there definitely can and will be some moves made by AAPL in the coming months...especially if we get a Trump presidency and he does what he says about repatriating off shore cash hoards. Will NFLX be snapped up by AAPL? Maybe GOOGL is the buyer or who knows, but for sure AAPL is a juggernaut in the space and the next steps towards new innovation better be spectacular. Since my last comments, the stock has has some dramatic drops that were immediately bought indicating a lot of institutional interest is still there but all of lat weeks treading resulted in DOWN candles each day which creates some anxiety with putting large capital in play ahead of this earnings announcement.

 

As for BIG BETS today, there were 9,218 Dec 16 120 calls bought for 2.73 or someone placed a $2.5 million bet this stock trades well above $120 per share by December expiration. In addiction to that there was another buyers of the Jan 17 125 calls at 4,020 for 2.05 so it appears some whale money is being thrown to the long side on this stock. Calls out pace Puts at 287K to 147K respectively. I think the Samsung phone disaster is already priced into AAPL but if they surprise with much better than expected iPhone 7 sales as well as increased Watch sales, then it's on and we go a lot higher.

 

The MMM is +/- $4.49 indicating AAPL could top out around $122 but I think this stock will easily eclipse the up or down this week so I am placing my trades accordingly. If we get a dissapoint result, the drop should be subsatial since AAPL is inside a huge SGB zone with multiple SGB's in the past 10 trading days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

v

 

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10/16/16 - Will NFLX have an impact on AAPL this week after their earnings are announced tomorrow? I think only if there was a buyout offer from DIS; otherwise, the long term trend on AAPL is still bullish and the weekly chart definitely shows that to be the case. What we have to be aware of is the double SGB's last week inside a previous SGB zone so if AAPL does not clear out past $119.70 then committing large capital to long plays should be done so with caution and only added to after it happens. If I see a drop back under $116.10 then I will not be much into shorting; however, I want to fish for long plays with a $118-120 strike.

 

 

 

 

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10/13/16 - Nice breakout on Samsung news giving AAPL a solid move and making the calls plays some BIG ROI this week! Interesting to note that move also produced another SGB inside the last topping SGB zone, so now have a very strong pivot point to trade from going forward. Over $118.50 is an aggressive long with strict stop at $116; and below $115.50 is a short with stop at $118.00. This creates a $3 wide range so it is not good for short term options and you should only trade shares or buy longer term options.

 

Earnings are still a 12 days out so I would expect some volatility as we kick off next week with NFLX on Monday. It has been speculated that AAPL may be a buyer of NFLX, so if there is no announcement, then we may see some selling especially if these SGB's turn the tables on the recent rally. Now if DIS buys them instead who know how that will impact the stock but I would not bet heavy against AAPL now that Samsung has announced they are discontinuing the Galaxy 7 phone making iPhone the King-of-the-Hill! Upside price targets are greater than $130's, so I am more inclined to sell put premium and fish for swing trades on the call side so long as AAPL holds above $112.50 on any pull backs. A move over $118.50 and I am anticipating a solid pre-earnings run, so I want to pick up some Swing Calls tomorrow or Monday after I see how NFLX earnings go; however, with all these SGB's I will have a couple puts in play too.

 

 

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10/9/16 - We are now starting earnings season and that will typically put some buying pressure on many stocks and AAPL usually finds buyers at this time so we can anticipate there will be some bullish bias coming; however, there is now a double SGB with a DOJI in between which gives us the perfect pivot to trade from. If AAPL opens over $114.50 I am long with a stop at $113.00 and if it falls under $113.00 then I will get short shares for day trades with stops at $114.50. As for my longer time lines, I am a continued bull, so I will be on the hunt for Lotto plays and selling premium on dips. We still have a big SGB zone to clear out up to $120 so based on current charts I am hoping for a pull back to $111.00 area so I can get some cheaper calls.

 

 

 

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9/25/16 - As I expected, the SGB zone did prove to be the end of the line for the recent rally and now we are in a consolidation phase as investors digest the new iPhone 7 release. On Friday, there was a leaked news story that allegedly Apple sales in foreign countries are lower than projections and that caused a nose dive in the afternoon session. It appears this story was bogus but we will see in the coming week how it is interpreted. There have been many bullish comments all week by analysts but one in particular (Dan Niles) chimed in that AAPL is his leading stock to invest in. There have been multiple price target estimates as high as $135 so that could put some support under the stock on any pull backs. Of course, any confirmed news sales are dropping off or the company cannot make enough for the demand will definitely bring some volatility into the stock—exactly what we traders are hoping for! Anyway, this stock is always on somebody's hit list so be prepared to trade what you get and just work trades and fish for lower prices when taking positions because the Market Makers have no problem picking your pockets. As for future moves, I plan to keep adding to my shares and selling Naked Puts on dips. Of course I will continue to fish for Thur/Fri Lotto trades and when earnings come around, I hope to land the Moby Dick WW Trades!

 

 

 

 

 

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9/15/16 - WOW what an explosion in price we have had in AAPL this week climbing over 10%!! If you were in any calls this week then you are very happy right now. The big news was pre-orders were very strong and AAPL has now run out of iPhone 7's for the first round. The other kicker was the woes of Samsung's phone having potential fire problems so that just added fuel to AAPL's fire and it was off to the races all week. The big question now is will there be a lot of profit taking tomorrow or even more upside? The "talking heads" were out in droves all week touting higher prices and targets into the 125's so we can still see a lot more price improvement going forward. I have been day trading shares, selling premium and spreads. I plan to keep doing the same in the coming weeks but now I want to see a pull back—and so do millions of other investors who were too afraid to jump in back at the SGB break out—oh, wait a minute, they have NO CLUE how to trade the SGB's, only YOU do if you are a subscriber to my site. Today, AAPL dead stopped at 115.51 for hours and it appeared to me the stock was under accumulation as I saw multi-thousand block trades going through. In the final 15 minutes of trading the stock managed to peak at 115.73 and is now trading at 115.40 in after hours. The way I am looking at it is I want to see AAPL hold VWAP in pre-market and the first 15 minutes of the open tomorrow. If it cannot hold over 115.51 then I will look to lock in this weeks profit and fish for more longs into next week.

 

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9/11/16 - The new iPhone 7 is out and as expected, AAPL removed the headphone jack to accommodate a slimmer size. Of course, we know they also are looking to obsolescence so they can convert new customers and old one into spending more money on new accessories—this is modus operandi when it comes to AAPL. Question is will this phone be the beginning of a huge upgrade cycle or will the bulk of their customer base wait until the 8 is released? I for one will NOT be upgrading my 6Plus and I think tens of thousands will not either; however, with the stumble on the Samsung phones, this will pave the way for AAPL to gain more market share. There is no clear bias on this stock for short term, but you can bet fund managers will still be bullish long term. Friday the stock was hammered all day stopping at the bottom of the last earnings SGB so we have the perfect pivot point for long/short plays. over $104.40 is a long and under $102.70 is a short.

 

 

 

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9/6/16 - Tomorrow is the big release day for the new model 7 and there has been quite a bit of commotion around AAPL dropping the headphone jack. Will it be a deal killer for upgrade junkies or will they embrace it and want the other new features like the camera and new touch screen plus other stuff not announced until tomorrow. There should be some great volatility in the stock this week so I am fishing for Lotto trades into next week on puts and calls and then I will be selling premium in the direction of momentum as well as some day trade scalping. Earnings are over a month away, so this release will be included; however, the real impact won't be until Jan earnings are released and the company goes through the Holiday Christmas season. Never the less, AAPL is a great stock to trade so be on the alert for solid setup up patterns and SGB's. After the last earnings surprise, the stock has had a nice steady climb and if the product release is perceived a disappointment, then we can easily see this tock plu8mmetn under $100 so I am carrying some puts down there for sure.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8/21/16 - Since their surprise earnings beat, AAPL has seen a very nice rally recovering ALL of the previous earnings drop from 4/26/16. Now the test of the Bulls begins here as we approach the release of the iPhone 7. It will be widely expected the stock will pull back soon, so shorts are likely to step up and build their positions. The weekly chart has a completed "W" pattern and if we do get a pullback, then we want to see AAPL hold the 8MA on the weekly chart and that should confirm an aggressive long. As for now, I am still long bias and will continue to trade in the direction of momentum. There are sure to be new products or innovations coming from AAPL in the longer term future and it is expected the iPhone 7 will not be a big upgrade cycle for AAPL so I am looking for a SGB to show up before I change my long bias. If the stock starts out this week with a RED bar, then we have a Bear 180 setup Level 1. Any pull back to T3 and I will look for more aggressive long strategies.

 

 

 

 

 

Bias still bullish, but contract load has been reduced quite a bit since my last update.

 

 

Big bets are spreads indicating no interest in gabling higher prices are coming.

 

 

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8/7/16 - AAPL earnings were a big surprise and the stock has had a very nice run higher since. This week the company will pay a $0.57 dividend on 8/11/16 which will drop the stock price by that amount the next day. I am expecting the stock to move higher in the coming months, but I am looking for a short term pull back to the 200MA on the daily chart. If we get a positive open tomorrow, then I plan to start selling some $103 - 105 26 Aug Naked Puts 103 - 105. Sentiment is very bullish on the stock with calls over 2:1 to puts. The daily chart has a nice SGB zone for us to work from so as long as AAPL holds above $104.40 my bias remains long and under $102.75 I will become more neutral. The iPhone 7 is set to start selling on September 9th so I am anticipating AAPL will continue to grind higher in the month of August unless some unforeseen negative news erupts. Since the stock is in full bull mode, I want to fish for some Lotto Puts  week-to-week because if the stock reverses, I fully expect it to blow right through the SGB zone from 7/27/16.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7/26/16 - AAPL earnings are today after the bell and the anticipation with investors is low on the anxiety scale with IV only at 48% event he Market Makers are not expecting any surprises. If the company does not have any rabbits in the hat, then you can expect a barrage of downgrades tomorrow if they only meet or slightly miss estimates. The stock has pulled back from the recent $100 price level and touched down yesterday EXACTLY on my SGB zone low. If the stock takes the downside direction, then all those bets will be placed at or under the 200MA on the weekly chart which puts the stock right about where the expected MMM is at +- 3.57 or about $93.00. Yesterday, there was some pretty HUGE Call buys out in Jan 2017 on the 130 calls for 6,801 contracts and some July and Aug too.  Some were straight buys and other spreads so big bets are definitely being placed the stock will surprise.

 

This quarterly report is not the one analysts will be really interested in, but they will definitely be looking to next quarter because the release if the iPhone 7 starts in September and that will set the tone for a while. The company has a multi-billion buy back in place, and they may announce another increase tomorrow, so that will bolster the stock on any down tick. What investors will be waiting to hear is where the tech giant is heading and what innovations they may have coming this year. I think they will not have anything big to announce until the elections are done and if we get a Trump presidency, I expect a big change in corporate tax laws which means AAPL will bring back billions of dollars and use that money to do a lot of acquisitions and investments. If we get the other outcome, you can forget about seeing that money coming to the US shores anytime soon and is there is NO big upset in the iPhone change, then this stock will most likely trend lower in the longer term.

 

So, for this week, I want to go with some short term calls and longer term puts.

 

 

 

Sentiment is still to the Bullish side

 

Above the SGB zone is strong buy and under cautious shorts.

 

 

 

 

 

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7/19/16 - AAPL has been on a steady climb higher since my last comments which is typical for pre-earnings with stocks. Today the stock tested $100 but did not manage an actual close over the century mark so if we get a move higher tomorrow, we must see a close over $101.00-$102 which is where the sellers were last time on the weekly chart. The rise has been the typical pre-earnings run up and this quarter has a lot of anticipation with investors. The next iPhone release is coming in September so the analysts world is probably not as interested in the quarter as they will be the next quarter. With the stock touching back on $100 a share, and I suspect it will attempt a gap fill at $103 possibly this week.

 

Recent news has been positive and some of that news shows the company is making big investments into the Medical Technology and today news came out that Apple Inc. has filed a new patent for Augmented Reality (AR) displays. Hmmm, a couple of comments back, I was saying that maybe AAPL will come out with a technology that will turn the iPhone into a Hologram device. Here is a video I found on YouTube where you can actually make a 3D Hologram with your iPhone https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YWTtCsvgvg so if AR is about to be released it is in its infancy stage and the "wow" factor will cause EVERY iPhone user to dump their old one for the new one. Also, the company is developing it's own self-driving car and I am sure a lot more interesting projects are coming from the tech giant—Oh, and maybe even a buyout of NFLX in the future.

 

So, if earnings next week are a non-event, we may see the stock test the 200MA on the weekly chart until the next quarter and see how the iPhone 7 release does for the stock. I do not expect AAPL to get whacked, especially with a large dividend and multi-billion buyback in play, but if the big fund managers think it's over (for now) the stock can certainly fall over 10%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7/10/16 - As earnings season kicks off this week, a lot of investors will be speculating on AAPL. The stock has lost a lot of momentum and favor with investors looking for the next "big thing" from the tech giant. With the upcoming release of the iPhone 7 it is expected to be, well, less than impressive and just a rehash of what everyone already has. So, it will most likely be a huge upset if there is actually a rabbit pulled out of the hat but probably this time it will fail to impress analysts and the stock drops under the 200MA for a long time. I plan to speculate long over the 200MA on the weekly chart and buy some wild card lotto puts with longer time at earnings. For now, most stocks rise to the occasion and drop on the news so I am going to see if we get that pre-earnings IV pump going and will start to buy some slightly OTM calls for now.

 

If you want to try some weekly lotto calls, be sure to FISH for a price 50% lower and sell half for a DoubleUP. Who knows what the company may do in the coming months, but I sure hope they just buy out NFLX for a $200 a share. Heck maybe they buy TSLA too. All I know  is they better buy something or come out with a phone that maybe "wows" the millennial crowd, like say, a phone that projects Holograms?

 

As for market sentiment, there is a massive 300k calls to 161k puts so the crowd is definitely bullish on AAPL and miss is going to be a big blow.

 

 

 

Big contract loads Friday but all of them as spreads or covered calls.

 

 

 

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6/27/16 - What a week the markets had over the Brexit surprise. All stocks were crushed on the unexpected news the Brits voted to LEAVE or EXIT the EU so now we have a lot of instability abroad which is where AAPL has BILLIONS of dollars in reserves and who knows what investments since they do not have to disclose them on their US 10K reports.

 

The stock took a nosedive down to the 200MA on Friday and today it close under it but volume was half of Friday's so we could be seeing some support grow a rally if the stock can hold $90 this week. With earnings season starting up after July 4th, there should be some anticipation to keep the stock from cratering. If the iPhone 7 is not a huge success, then what will the company do to make up for that? Probably not much they can do this year other than some buyouts of other companies, so I am still looking for a resurgence of enthusiasm before I commit big bucks to the stock. For now, I will just take on some lotto Friday trades and continue to accumulate some shares selling Naked Puts.

 

 

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6/15/16 - There is a worm eating up inside the Big Apple and it's name is tunnle-vision. The WWDC conference brought us NOTHING new and exciting to get investors to take a new or bigger bite into AAPL ; and now we only have the future iPhone 7 upgrade cycle to entice higher prices. If the projections are correct that the mobile phone growth cycle has peaked, then this stock is going to be sliding a lot lower in the future if the next upgrade cycle is a bust.

 

At the WWDC it appears all Apple is doing is upgrading current software and technology with some convenience improvements but nothing ground breaking; however, I am not counting on the company to fail, but I am looking for some some new technologies and direct investments into other vertical growth venues once the elections are over and we see what 2017 and beyond brings us. If we get a Trump presidency, I am sure there will be a ton of corporate tax incentives and AAPL has BILLIONS of cash stockpiles overseas to re-partite here in the US and start up all kinds of opportunities. Now on there other hand, if we get more of what we have had in the political arena, then you can FORGET about billions in corporate coffers coming back to the US anytime soon.  So, what does it do for us as traders?

 

Well, since there was no upside surprise this week from the conference, then I am going to shift more into selling premium spreads, butterfly spreads, condors, covered calls and long term buy and hold of the shares in the company. I will continue to day trade shares to finance my Lotto Trades up to 10% OTM and fish for some Friday Lotto action too.

 

 

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6/12/16 - This week is the WWDC conference where investors will get a chance to hear about the upcoming technologies and possible future projections from Apple CEO Tim Cook. Will they announce a new AppleTV technology? Maybe they will buy out NFLX? There is a lot of anticipation they will announce something big since the CEO was recently visiting China and India and if he offers nothing new or exciting, then we will see this stock take a pretty good dip. I am optimistic this convergence will be a great boon for Apple and we see the begiinings of a huge pre-earnings rally and iPhone 7 upgrade explosion.

 

The charts still have AAPL inside a large SGB zone and last week there was a very large pop-n-drop leaving a huge topping tail that turned into a SGB the next day. So, if they do not surprise then I see AAPL dropping well under the 200MA on the weekly chart and with this being June and Triple witching expiration, I expect some good volatility in AAPL all week.

 

I am going with some weekly Lotto calls and swing puts.

 

 

There was some massive BuyWrite trade4s on Friday so we know big funds are positioning for definite movement in AAPL.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6/5/16 - We did get that slight pull back in AAPL and the 97 puts actually did better than a  DoubleUP so if you were on your game, then you got what I was looking for.

 

Tomorrow is some more FOMC Chair news from Yellen and it should put a spin or drain on the markets heading into June trading as investors decide on how they think she will react to the employment upset and future rate raising for either June or July. She has to do something soon because the election conventions are coming and how the markets move can and will effect the outcome in November. Will it affect stocks like AAPL? Yes it certainly can, but what really has to be determined is if the upcoming release of the iPhone 7 will be in huge demand or just another passive upgrade with a nominal change in features and technology.

 

The charts are suggesting to me that AAPL will slip lower if it cannot close above $102.00 this week; however, any dips to the 200MA on the weekly around $93.00 and I am sure even AAPL will be there buying shares so that is where I will also be selling premium and testing some long side plays etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5/30/16 - Ever since the Buffet news, AAPL has made an impressive move and is looking like it wants to just keep on gong higher too; however, Friday started a Bear 180 setup as it approaches weekly Bull 180 at T3. I will try a small short because I think this Bear 180 is only a Level 1 so I am going to fish for a few puts at the open if the stock fails to hold over Friday's high in the morning session. I am only looking for a DoubleUP because I think any pull backs will be aggressively bought and that is what I will be doing if we do get a pull back this week—fishing for a 17 June Swing trade on the $100 strike with an upside target at the 200MA on the daily chart around $106.00 as my exit point.

 

If the stock makes the move higher tomorrow and holds over the SGB zone, then I will be looking at selling some BPS and Naked Puts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5/16/16 - BIG NEWS today the Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway took a $1 BILLION dollar stake in AAPL. This news put a massive short covering rally in effect today which should be the bottom now that AAPL has traded back over the 200MA on the weekly chart. We will know in the next couple of days if this news plays out, but you have to remember, Buffet is a LONG TERM value investor so today's action could be just a typical overreaction in the near term. I was happy to see it and I jumped in some long plays today. I will be watching close how the stock reacts to the SGB zone starting at $96.00 and will start to get more aggressive with longer term Bull Put Spreads if ti can get over $97.50.

 

In addition to the Buffet news, CEO Tim Cook was also making the rounds in China meeting with the top brass of DiDi which Apple invested a Billion dollars into.  In addition to Mr. Cook's trip to China, it is reported that he will also be visiting India where he plans to announce the opening of three Apple stores and a startup incubator for  entrepreneurs to introduce ideas for iOS applications. The company is definitely on the move into other vertical markets as the iPhone (Smart Phone) era is getting long in the tooth in the eyes of many. What Apple needs is a new and impressive technology or catalyst to keep big funds invested and sales growing. Some speculate that maybe AAPL just buys out TSLA since they have said they want to develop electric autonomous vehicles. Also, since they may be on a heavy buying spree in the near future, maybe they also  buy out NFLX too since they have not developed AppleTV to its full potential yet. With multi-billions of cash in the wings, it is certainly a possibility to consider.

 

While many talking heads and pundits on CN-Blah-C were trashing AAPL as a failing business model, no new technology or innovation, tired and worn out, weak and weary, and on-and-on. Well, the "Oracle of Omaha" thinks otherwise; and if he is in the stock in a BIG way; everyone who left in the past month or two will no doubt have to pile back on or look silly if Buffet turns out to be right (as usual)—kind of fells like an old Karl Icahn type squeeze play like he did with NFLX and HLF in the past. Funny thing is, Icahn announced he exited 100% of his position in AAPL...lol...how the table can turn in the Billionaire Buyers Club...lol.

 

So for me, I plan to just keep selling both naked and premium spreads as the stock maintains a hold over the 200MA on the weekly charts.

 

 

 

 

 

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4/26/16 - Bad news for AAPL and they kick the stock in the nutz in after hours. Why? because the unthinkable happened. The company posted its first sales fall since 2003 when it reported $50.6BILLION and earnings of $1.90 per shares. Of course, the analysts were looking for $52 Billion and $1.99, respectively. This was a BIG MISS on revenue projections so the selling was strong and continued to trickle down even after the conference call to a low trade of $95.51.

 

The initial shockwave may give us another drop tomorrow (I hope so all the way past $90)  but if the FOMC and Japan news is strong, then a rising tide on the DOW will life all ships; which means AAPL may just stop sinking. There is also their multi-billion buy back ($10B of the now $175Billion has been invested so far) in place and they upped the dividend again by 9.6% to $0.57 per quarter, or $2.28 annualized. The new dividend will be payable on May 12,2016 to shareholders of record on May 9,2016 so that should definitely slow the bleeding and start the healing—I am hoping for a continued drop and pop, so I am fishing for a WW trade tomorrow on the call side.

 

Tomorrow I will be looking for the stock to hit T3 around $90 and will take profits. I will also be fishing for some WW Calls too.

 

 

 

 

Here were the big trades today:

 

 

 

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4/25/16 - Jockeying for positions as the stock slips down to the 50MA on the daily chart and dead stopped on my T2 line on the weekly chart.

 

Big bets continue to be placed on call side, but the fills are at the Bid indicating they are more likely to be covered calls against huge positions.

 

 

Short interest is very low

 

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4/24/16 - A big week of earnings ahead and AAPL is going to be heavily watched and traded. The speculators are in force and it is anybody's game so playing this one as more of a long term bet with spreads and lotto trades is what I plan to do. Bullish sentiment is still strong with 377k calls to 240k puts. Large option buys Friday were more on the spread size and directional trades were puts. I am looking to see what happens tomorrow and will adjust my trade ideas if I see something good or very unusual.

 

The chart is looking pretty bearish with an active Bear 180 in play but this stock is very popular, heavily owned by institutions and their is a multi-billion buy back still in place so I do not expect a major drop unless the news is very negative.

 

The stock is currently converging on the 50/89MA which is right at the base of the large SGB from last year's mini-crash, so if they disappoint, I do not see any support until the 200MA down around $93.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1/27/16 - AAPL took a pounding today but not enough yet to make the 95 and 90 puts pay off. FB earnings were a blowout and the stock exploded higher so this could cause a rally in AAPL tomorrow. I certainly do not expect it to rally anywhere close to making the calls even a break even so if we get more downside pressure I will sell my 95 puts and hold onto the 90's. If the stock moves back into the SGB zone at 96.76 then I will start to do some long strategies. Hopefully FB will continue its parabolic rise and that will more than make up for AAPL.

 

Adding it all up, we need to make up $3.79 which is easy to do selling some premium so I will be looking for trades to do just that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1/26/16 - AAPL posted a quarterly miss on revenue and iPhone sales. The stock initially dropped then jammed up to 103.50 but could not hold the line as the news was disseminated. In the conference call, the stock continued to slide the resting at 97.42. Even though the company had impressive numbers, it was the fact that the iPhone sales growth was the slowest ever reported by the company. This was the first time in 13 years they declined and could be a signal to institutional investors an end in their hyper growth is upon us. The saving grace here is it was actually "expected" news and possibly priced into the stock so we have to see how it trades in the morning. Since the stock is in a very strong SGB zone we have to bias to the short side under $97.55 and long side above $100.89. As of this afternoons close, it's not looking like we will have any chance of a profit on the calls but you never know and we have three day s to go.

 

Tomorrow is the next FOMC announcement and that could fuel a nice rally so AAPL may just rise with the tide. So, my plan now is to look for some spots to sell premium and get back the money invested in the calls and puts.

 

This company still has a massive market cap and hedge and mutual funds WILL be invested for the long haul and the dividend; plus there is always new technology, upgrades and new products coming to entice investors to buy in and hang on. According the the CEO, they are sitting on 210 BILLION dollars in cash reserves; however, that is mostly tied up and the actual "cash pile" is around $16.7 billion. One thing noted in the conference call was they were going to use debt vs. spending of their cash to raise even more capital for expansion and acquisitions. Here in the US the company has around $53.2 billion in long-term debt and another $32.2 billion in "non-current liabilities. There is also the paying off bond sales ($17 billion which was the largest in US corporate history) and then buying back billions in shares.

 

The company brass is definitely making financial maneuvers that all depend on continued dominance in technology hardware sales and they are starting to shift gears and expand into new frontiers. That being said, "new" is not necessarily investible when it comes to a stock, so big funds may just sit it out the rest of this year and the stock trades sideways—that would be GREAT for us because we can collect a ton of Iron Condor Premium!—I will get all the money back over time and so can you!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1/25/16 - Tomorrow is the big day for AAPL and should set the tone for the stock for a couple of quarters. IV is relatively low for a tech company. There are more bullish plays in place than bearish so a disappointment should give us a good move lower; however, I think it will take more time to play out since the company has a multi-billion buyback in place. I do expect an easy move below the 200MA and if they beat a solid move over the SGB zone at $111.00. Some big bets today on call spreads and a pretty good one on this weeks 90 puts. Since I already have some shares and longer term calls I will do some short term puts for tomorrow.

 

I am also going to speculate on a wild card Lotto play since the options are very cheap.

 

 

 

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1/24/16 - Big week of earnings and AAPL is poised for a huge move. Last week AAPL tested the 200MA on the weekly chart and then rallied Friday back through the 3x SGB zone on the daily chart. We also have a triggered Bull 180 on the weekly chart so the upside could be very good if they beat earnings estimates and guidance is better than expected. Of course, if the stock misses, then I expect it to easily take out the 200MA so I am straddling this one with longer term puts.

 

 

Here are the T-Levels for the Bull 180

 

 

Some big bets placed on PUT side Friday so we will see what bets are placed today and tomorrow.

 

 

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1/14/16 - Yesterday's rally was heavily sold but did NOT take out the SGB zones so today we get the gap down and retracement when the futures put in a perfect Bull 180; however, AAPL still struggles to get back over $100 and with tomorrow being Jan expiration it is looking like we will have a very volatile day. If the stock moves over $101 I get long shares and back under $97 I cover and reverse to a short.

 

If AAPL moves over the SGB zones and then falls back to them, I will sell covered calls against my long term shares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1/12/16 - A rough start for Jan trading for AAPL and the markets with the worst January opening week drop in the stock markets history. This week has produce THREE (3) SGB's and so we have the PERFECT long or short pivot to trade from going forward. A move over 100.89 and I am long and under the first SGB low at 97.34 (notice 34 is a Fibonacci #)  and I am short.

Today the stock was upgraded by Bank of America from Neutral to Buy with a $130 price objective, but what does that really mean? NOTHING because we trade PRICE ACTION not dumbass analysts touts of grandeur. Remember (more often than not) upgrades and downgrades are a sucker-fishing barrel for big firms looking to either sell out to you or scare you out for them to buy. This stock is no longer a HUGE mover day-to-day but it can be nice momentum play and with a FAT dividend payout, it will always have some buy pressure in place when dips come. I love to day trade this stock with B180's setups on 15-min charts. As for options plays, I am moving into longer plays with Swing and Spread plays and then doing my usual Lotto and WW fishing on Wed - Fri.

 

If we get a market wide rally going tomorrow, then I expect AAPL to make up to a 5% move so I am going to pick up some 104 calls and if the stock falls back to the SGB's from Monday, I will get short shares and buy some ATM puts for next week.

 

 

Some big LEAP contract buys today

 

 

 

 

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1/3/16 - New year and new opportunities with AAPL for us to make a lot of profits in 2016! Currently the stock is inside the huge SGB zone and has been selling off all of December so investors are going to be anxious to see how the company did with the Christmas season sales. I am sure institutional investors are looking for the next "big" innovation that AAPL can bring to the world which would translate into more growth so things are no doubt going to get volatile. This stock pays a nice dividend so the selling pressure is always going to be met with buyers and the lower the prices gets under $100 the more there will be so I am looking to do a lot of fishing for better entry points and day trading shares for movement. Currently the China markets took a huge hit today and that will most likely spill over to us tomorrow. Since AAPL needs to get a lot more penetration into the China market, that could cause us a short-term dip this week if it's perceived that China markets will continue to slide lower.

 

If you remember when we had the mini-crash back in August 24th, AAPL was slammed down to $92.00 before the massive buying kicked in and drove the stock back up over $111.00 in two short trading days. Now with the stock testing the bottom of that huge SGB, you have to watch close because the current range is where the big institutions will be making their decisions for this first quarter of trading.

 

 

 

 

The yearly chart has the stock in a triggered BEAR 180 so we need to keep a close watch on it for the long term trades.

 

 

 

 

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10/26/15 - Get ready to make some money on AAPL earnings tomorrow. Today, it appears investors decided to  beat down the stock in anticipation they will not make their numbers or maybe guide lower. Some upgrades came out today and then some CNBlahC talking heads were questioning the upgrades. Always two sides to every love story and investors apparently lost some of their love today. The company has amazing products, they have massive earnings, a huge dividend, billions of dollars of cash reserves and amazing products in the pipeline. Whether they beat, miss or report flat, from a investing perspective you just have to own shares of AAPL and hold them forever! As for trading around the events, we just have to pick our spots and manage the profits or mitigate the losses because there will be plenty of movement to fix things later if need be.

 

Here are the option stats for today:

 

There was a HUGE LOTTO put buy today so we definitely want to follow on this one...maybe the word is getting out about my Lotto Plays...lol

 

 

I plan to buy some more time on this round of earnings because we are heading into the primetime selling season for AAPL and if they do beat, I expect a multi-day move; and if they miss I expect a sudden drop and pop so I will go short term on puts. I am also selling some Naked Puts to get paid to buy more shares of AAPL should it fall down to the SGB zone.

 

The selling today put AAPL back in to a SGB zone and the next one a very large one from $111.00 down to $103.50 so a big disappointment could initially crush the stock and that is where my Wilde Card Lotto Trade will be.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10/11/15 -  Nice moves in AAPL since my last comments and the OctWk2 110 calls had a nice drop then pop by expiation so if you were fishing at $1.00 or better, then you got a pretty decent trade by the end of the week. I bought in once the doubled down and made a nice trade by the close on Friday.

 

 

Here is the trade posted to OptionRadio members on 10/4/15

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10/4/15 -  Employment report came in worse than expected and initially markets sold off but that was short lived as shorts were forced to cover and we ended up with a classic V-Bottom reversal for the trading day. All stocks including AAPL were lifted and now we have the stock back to the top of the current SGB zone. If it can hold the line here, then I want to get into long strategies as earnings season kicks off. I fully expect AAPL to be a leader out of the pack as anticipation of excellent sales of the new product line start to emerge. I dropped by the Apple Store today and it was PACKED with people. I am not looking to short but will buy on drops back into the SGB zone.

 

 

 

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9/29/15 -  Markets are slipping lower this week and AAPL is part of the gang being sold off and is now in the middle of that huge SGB. If things continue to slide lower this week, AAPL is definitely going to test the lows of that SGB so I am lowering my fishing order on the 110 calls in anticipation of this and hope to get a nice Friday rally.

 

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9/27/15 -  We should see some movement in AAPL this week once the initial weekend sales numbers are released. If they are good then we need to see AAPL clear the SGB zone over $118 but if they are average to down, then AAPL should be a good short down to the big SGB zone. I am looking at a straddle this week.

 

 

 

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9/20/15 -  iPhone release and iPad upgrade produced a lack luster rally that became a SGB and down AAPL goes. Hope you shorted some shares and collected a nice move down. Now we are at the very big SGB zone and I fully expect AAPL to hold the line in there somewhere so I am looking for long plays and not interested in aggressive shorting in this stock. I know you have hear me say it over and over again, but remember, there is still a multi-billion buy back and they pay a huge dividend. The company sits on BILLIONS of free cash and has the HOTTEST tech products on the planet so shorting is very risky business and only for professional experienced day traders. Just fish for calls on dips and sell Bull Put Spreads (BPS) if AAPL falls back down to around $108.00.

 

 

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9/14/15 -  Now that the iPhone event is over, Investors initially took AAPL up today but sold it back down most of the day; however, it still closed higher on an overall down day in the markets. What we need to take notice is the final candle for the day is an SGB which happens to be exactly at a previous one back on 11/24/14 and again on 1/15/15. The first one resulted in a steep sell off and the latter one a rally. Depending on how the markets react to the FOMC we have a clear long or short pivot point to trade off of.

 

 

 

 

 

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9/6/15 -  AAPL is now trading inside that huge SGB so any move over it I get long and since I am still very bullish on this stock, I will see if we get a move under it to get long there too. I do not recommend trading AAPL to the short side other than some day trading since there is so much future compelling news and the upcoming new iPhone event. Historically, the stock has been up as much at 10+% but this time the stock is currently down over (-6%) and that gives cause for concern...a little bit. In fact, if you look at how the stock has behaved post events, it has been 5 out 8 times back to the beginning of the first iPhone release. I believe the current decline is more market related than company or product related so any good news, market support and well received products from the public and I believe AAPL will easily reverse current conditions and soar higher. I am still going to keep a couple OTM puts in place, but my bias is to remain long for now. (Here is a link to the historic price movements)

 

 

 

 

 

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8/30/15 -  What a huge move we have had in the markets and AAPL since my last commentary...WOW. Now that the stock is back almost exactly where I last commented, it's time to pick a spot and trade the move. The daily chart has a huge SGB so we now where to draw the stop line on longs and where to buy the dip should the markets decide to fall again and test those recent lows. Technically the markets have entered into a correction phase and that can either last weeks or multi-months so AAPL is definitely one of the stocks funds will gravitate to with that huge dividend they pay out. Earnings are way off in the future so the only thing to move this stock higher is positive news in China and an expected move by the Federal Reserve with respect to hiking up the interest rates. I

 

 

 

 

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8/4/15 -  Investors had a nice post earnings rally, but that has been beaten down and in the past couple of days, AAPL has lost quite a bit of technical ground. Today, all the talking heads were coming out in droves to defend the stock, tout valuation models, upgrade reiterations, but it appears their golden castle walls have been breached by competition as news came out they are losing ground in China. The stock is paying out a dividend on Thursday and typically that holds the stock up, but after today's action, it appears big money is dumping after the x-dividend date in anticipation of more downside to come. Once the stock pays that dividend, it will adjust the price lower by $0.52; however, the selling can pick up momentum not that the stock has broken through he 200MA. I am still a long term bull in the stock and will look for any pull back s as just another opportunity to buy more shares to average out my cost basis. If this is a correction in the stock, then I will be looking for a rebound attempt to test the 200MA and if that fails, I will will get in some aggressive puts.

 

Technically, the stock filled all the gaps back to January, so I expect some bargain shoppers to step in; oh, and remember, there is still a multi-billion dollar buy back so I do not think AAPL will get wiped out per say, but you have to be prepared for more selling and the next gaps to be filled are at $100.00.

 

Once the dividend is paid out on Thursday, I am looking for a potential relief rally on Friday so I want to do some WW fishing then.

 

 

 

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7/20/15 -  AAPL beats estimates but disappoints on Q4 sales outlook and gets whacked in after hours trading dragging tech with it. We are currently ITM on the puts plays and hopefully the selling intensifies tomorrow and we get a lot more. Any move higher tomorrow that does not take out $128.00 and I get short again looking for a potential White Whale trade.

 

Sales are up 35% the company makes billions of dollars, has huge dividend and multi-billion buy back in place. After tonight beating, things could get very over sold quickly and the squeeze kicks in in the later morning. Tough call either way, so I am taking profits on my 125's and looking to see how the stock trades after 10am PST.

 

 

 

 

Multiple SGB zones and in after hours AAPL dead stopped at the 200MA on the daily chart. If it fails here, we could see a drop to $115 or lower! A rally back to the top of the weekly SGB at $128 fails I start to do some day trading shorts.

 

 

 

 

 

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7/20/15 -  Tomorrow is the big day for AAPL and with all the recent momentum we could see the classic pump-n-dump; however, this stock is just too strong, rich and powerful so shorting is going to be interesting.

 

I am long term bull on the stock and I look for any and all dips to keep accumulating shares and with them at $132 that is CHEAP.

 

I do not anticipate this stock will ever move like GOOGL or NFLX with all those outstanding shares, but it can be a consistent winner as you have seen over the past couple of weeks. Because it take so much momentum to move this stock higher, the path of lease resistance is down so I plan to do longer term BPS and short term Lotto Puts.

 

The stock dang near gapped right over the SGB zone that was the beginning of a 10 point drop so that indicates to me if they blow out the quarter, then we are definitely heading much higher over time. Now if the iWatch does not impress analyst—and so far the talking heads have been negative on CNBlahC of late—this could be the capitulation run up and we see the stock get whacked in the near term—my upside target is $139.55-142.00 and you can expect a test of the 200MA around $121.50 if things get ugly.

 

 

I have been watching the institutional ownership and it is on the rise which indicates the big money is getting very interested in longer term growth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7/18/15 - What a week we had for earnings kickoff with NFLX, GOOGL. All the excitement has started a firestorm under every stock and the momentum is looking ready to spill over into AAPL and then FB. If you were watching AAPL as it moved up into the SGB then you should have been pulling the long trigger and are not sitting on some FAT profits. Looking over the recent activity, we have AAPL putting in a HUGE Bull Elephant Bar on the weekly chart but the volume was average, so that may not have the follow through we hope to get unless they kill earnings estimates.

 

In the minds of the average investor, shares of AAPL are dirt cheap compared to what they remember them to be; and they do NOT remember a split as much as they remember this stock was trading close to $700 a share earlier this year. In fact, when you adjust the current price pre-split, this stock now trades at $907.00, so the likely target now is to hit the $1,000 mark (pre split) or $142.85.

 

The charts show us that we still have one more SGB zone to take out; which put a dead stop in the recent rally on Friday and I think that will easily happen if they beat and/or surprise.

As you know, I am a major BULL in AAPL and l really LOVE my new iPhone 6+, so I am sure millions of others do or want one too. There will be another version of the iPhone coming so the upgrade cycle will just perpetuate and so will the stocks price, but remember, it is still a "stock" and that can be subjected to emotional trading habits of others; therefore, volatility is always around the corner and we want to do our best to be on the right side of it!

 

There was some BIG action on Friday options. Someone bought a whopping 5,210 JulWk5 135 calls for .85 cents..hmm...are they subscribe to my site and doing a LOTTO TRADE...lol...that is the strike price I am looking at buying.

 

On the other side of the trade there was someone who bought 6,500 of the Aug15 Puts. There is no indication these were part of a spread trade so they are most likely straight buys and the puts could be a Naked sell.

 

 

 

 

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7/12/15 - That 89MA proved to be a cliff that AAPL fell off of. Those double SGB's were proof positive AAPL was a solid short. Of course, it is always easy to see what was obvious AFTER the fact, it take years of experience to anticipate it and then actually pull the trigger with your money in order to get in front of a move like this. Now that AAPL has been sold off quote a bit even testing the 200MA; however, I am not convinced yet the stock is going to recover because Friday was a market wide rally and AAPL was only getting short covered. It is going to take a strong retail sales report, solid earnings starting this week and some positive Greece news to get things going again in this stock. Of course they have a multi-billion buy back, a huge dividend and awesome products that have been a massive success, so any continued dips in price are buying opportunities for me—

I want to see the stock move back over the weekly SGB before I get aggressively long.

 

 

 

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6/13/15 - AAPL bounced nicely off the 89MA and was immediately sold back down from that SGB zone so now we KNOW where to get long again. I am fishing for more calls this week as the stock pulls back some more but as I get filled, I will be taking profits on most my contracts when I get at least 20% until this stock is back over $131.60.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6/9/15 - That Bear Elephant Bar I pointed was confirmed with two SGB's and DOWN came the big AAPL which is now testing the 89MA and the previous SGB zone. I am buying some more shares around here and looking for some aggressive calls at T2.

 

 

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5/30/15 - Some volatility this week has resulted in a bearish engulfing candle pattern. This should result in lower prices for AAPL but that is only a BUY opportunity for me so I am looking for a test of the SGB zone and/or the 89MA where I will get on some more bullish positions. If you are doing any short positions in AAPL you will have to be ready to take profits because any snap back and the MM will wipe out all your profits immediately. Remember, this stock is the BIGGEST company in the world and pays a huge dividend now so any positive news will be a catalyst to move higher; therefore I am looking to fish for lotto calls.

 

 

 

 

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5/26/15 - Market pulling back today and taking AAPL with it. Dips are buy opportunities for me so I am looking for entry points especially if AAPL pulls back to the 89MA.

 

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5/23/15 - News coming out they are ahead of projections on iPhone sales and the iWatch is popular and selling well too. Earlier in the week Carl Icahn was saying he believe the stock will hit $250 so you know that will keep people buying in on EVERY DIP.

 

 

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5/10/15 - Back in the SGB zone and if AAPL slips under $126.55 I will try a couple shorts for a short term swing play.

 

 

 

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5/5/15 - Looking like suckers stepped back in as the stock reverses course and looks to be ready to head lower. We have the SGB zone as our pivot point so if you are a seller in AAPL then you know where your stops are. I am a long term investor in AAPL so I will just look for dips to buy more shares.

 

 

 

 

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5/3/15 - Buyers stepping in or is AAPL just buying back shares? The stock has a nice reversal rally Friday, and in order to have conviction, it must stay above the SGB zone or $126.00. This stock is CHEAP based on the current share price, but it trades a very high multiple; however, they are now the BIGGEST company in the world by market cap which means mutual fund manages MUST own it. Friday's pop is most likely due to the fact the company is paying out a dividend on the 7th so once that happens, it could easily resume some downside pressure. The company currently pays a lower dividend 1.7% than the average S&P 500 yield at 1.9% so we could get an announcement they will be increasing their dividend soon. Back in April 2014 the company announced it was increasing it's capital returns from $100 billion to an astonishing $130 billion. If they up the dividend, they could easily double it since they are more than printing money at an estimated free cash flow gain of $66.5 Billion in 2015. Since they have a massive multi-billion dollar buy back in place, maybe this time they up the dividend yield. If that happens, you will see this stock shoot up higher so I am sticking to my long bias for now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4/29/15 - News hit the iWatch is having defects and not working correctly on the heart monitoring with certain situations. This started an avalanche of selling that continued today and now looks to be the death of the recent rallies. Remember, there is a multi-billion buy back in place so the stock will be bought up at certain price points that will slow down any massive selling. The company is huge, the dividend is large and they make profits and products that will keep buyers coming for a very long time to come. This stock is a buy and hold investment so if you cannot day trade it with some size, then just sell premium spreads and fish for lotto trades on Thursdays for now.

 

 

 

 

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4/26/15 - A nice earnings beat and solid quarter for AAPL but the buyers did not step in after hours and take the stock higher. The after hours high was $136.00 even on my TOS platform and then the stock pulled back holding above the $134 (fib) which is what I wanted to see. Now if we get a pop up in the morning, I am taking profits on half of my 135 weekly calls and will see how the stock trades the rest of the week.

 

 

 

 

4/26/15 - Tomorrow is the big day for AAPL earnings and the first quarterly report for 2015. There is really nothing left for the company to surprise with other than projections and initial sales of the iWatch. This launch is a much anticipated game changer for the company. If they are selling like hotcakes, then the perception in the minds of investors is the company is on the verge of a innovation shift and the expectations of more to come will keep them invested. If sales are lackluster, we will definitely see some profit taking in this stock.

 

I went to the Apple store on the 24th in the "rich" part of town here in Las Vegas (Summerlin)  and there was no waiting lines and not that many people there looking at the watches. In fact, there were more people there looking at iPhones. I asked the representative how the sales of the watches were going and he said unenthusiastically there were doing good. I have to say that looking at the watches in the case did intrigue me to the point I wanted to buy one.

 

IV rank is low at 55% indicating the Market Makers are not bullish in this stock, but the investing public sure is at a ratio of 2:1 on calls vs. puts. This is a setup for a big drop if they disappoint tomorrow.  I am going to have long positions as usual, but I am going to speculate on the Put side a little more.

 

 

 

 

 

The weekly chart has a cup-n-handle pattern which is typically bullish so if they make the grade, higher prices is the likely outcome.

 

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4/19/15 - The big day is about to happen for AAPL and so far the stock has found solid resistance at the SGB zone. This stock is hard to short with the pending news, so if you do, you are in for a ride of sorts. I am waiting until earnings for my next plays.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4/12/15 - It's almost time to look at your Apple iWatch and already some are being sold on EBay at high prices. The stock has pulled up, tested and is again sitting in a solid double day SGB zone. We have the perfect pivot point to play off of and there is sure to be some volatility as investors jockey for position. Will it be a massive success or a total bust? In the short-term, there will be no way to know but in the long-term, this stock is a good investment so there will always be buyers waiting on any strong dips. The trading range for me is $115 - $130 so that is where I am planning my trades. My bias is to the long side on AAPL so I will look for dips to buy calls, sell premium and accumulate shares.

 

 

 

There was a huge 5k contract spread placed on the June 140 strike Friday so they expect the stock to make a big enough move either way to cover it. The strike is interesting to me in that they bought a deep OTM call and deep ITM put, so they must think the stock has a lot more potential to go down since the cost the straddle means the stock would actually have to trade over $157.06 just to break even. Now if the stock get's crushed, then the would make money faster since they are only paying $1.78 for the calls plus the IV on the intrinsic value of the put which is $2.63—TOS says the stock has to trade 122.94 / 157.06 just to break even. Of course the profit is infinite but the time to get there is limited.

 

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4/5/15 - As we get closer to the release of the iWatch, I expect volatility to increase as investors jockey for position on what the future hold for AAPL. Will it be a ticking time bomb for the iWatch or a stop watch on the past and a brave new world of products and innovation for the future? Of course only time will tell that tale; but we know and love AAPL products, so jump in as an investor on some shares and trade what the market gives us as we speculate future moves. Last week the stock test the bottom of the confirmed SGB zone and now I am looking for it to make a move above that zone. I was in an AAPL store over the weekend, and it was not as packed out with buyers as I have seen in the past, but that is not to say it will not be when the iWatch is released. One thing I would like to point out is the sales rep I spoke with about the watch told me they are being trained to sell the watch as a "luxury" item vs. consumer so that could be a challenge in the longer term if sales are not robust and the product is well received. I know the SGB zone is my pivot for long and or short plays so lets get the clock running and the countdown ticking. Oh, and don't forget we have earnings coming again at the end of the month so that will definitely put some anxiety into investor minds too.

 

 

 

 

 

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3/22/15 - Traded under the SGB zone so the short signal is on with a stop at $129.00  With the iWatch release coming up on 4/24/15 there should be some continued buying pressure so trading short term put options may not be a very profitable venture so I am looking to fish for some calls.

 

 

 

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3/19/15 - A nice move back to the SGB and today it reversed closing in the zone. This is the make or break spot for AAPL and with all the news, accolades, Apple TV, iWatch etc. the stock is definitely a long term buy/hold but for short term trading, we may have a very nice opportunity here.

 

 

 

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3/16/15 - Just hanging around, always hanging around my T-levels...lol.  Well, my call plays are not working out so I am just waiting for AAPL to attack the SGB zone before I make another move.

 

 

 

 

 

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3/10/15 - Profit taking now that the iWatch news is out. Now we have two SGB's, so today the stock stats to sell off sliding lower all day. There was another upgrade with profit targets at $160 but that is just a suckers announcement to help the smart money get out of dodge for now. There will be some bargain hunters down at $115 and should the stock head lower, I expect it to test the trading range from Dec to Jan. If things turn for the better, then I will look initially at Bull Put Spreads above the SGB's.

 

 

 

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3/7/15 - Apple has been sliding lower all week but maintained a bounce off the 21ma. Friday we get a perfect SGB with a close EXACTLY on the 21ma. Monday is the iWatch news conference and possibly a BIGGER announcement of things to come. If they disappoint, we know the SGB is a solid short signal and this stock will easily drop back down to the last one. If they surprise then its ON for the long term investors and AAPL should be bought and held onto.

 

On Friday it was announced that AAPL will be replacing T on the Dow 30 starting 3/18/15. Typically, when stocks get added to this index, they initially move higher then trend lower over the short term. Eventually, when the dust settles, the stocks with strong earnings and large dividends trend higher over time. I am sure AAPL will be bought on any dips, so trade the downside with an all-or-nothing mentality, but prepare to accumulate shares at the major moving average or my T-Levels. 

 

While AAPL trades on the NASDAQ, it enjoys the top spot for market cap weighted stocks, in fact, it ranks as the biggest company in the U.S. with a massive $736 Billion dollar market cap; however, when it moves over the the DOW30 it will rank around 6th (for now) which means it gets a little less fund investing, but it also can create some lasting momentum. The top spots on the Dow 30 go to V, GS, IBM, MMM and BA so the race is on for AAPL to climb the mountain of success again.

 

The biggest bummer is the volatility in the stock will decrease substantially as time moves forward, so this stock will have less opportunities to make massive Lotto gains on. Don't get me wrong, there will always be trades here, we just have to be more selective and trade around earnings events.

 

If you recall from my comments below, there were a few well known hedge funds that were dumping AAPL. Hmm, you think they already knew this change in indexes was going to happen? If the stock lights a fire on Monday, they will be forced to jump back in or eat crow with their investors and that can put some massive momentum into the upside.

 

If the iWatch become a massive success, then we will definitely see this stock moving a lot higher this year, so buying some longer term calls or just shares is a good bet, but do so at my T-Levels for best entry points.

 

We have, what appears to be, the perfect trading storm in this stock and the perfect signal demarcation to trade off of so let's get our plays on and Profits Up!

 

No big bets placed on the Mar2 calls other than a combo trade:

 

There are definitely more call buyers than put buyers so a disappointment will bring down on AAPL.

 

I am going to fish for the vertical spreads to see if I can get filled under some big volatility next week.

 

 

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3/3/15 - Holding ground as we get closer to the news conference event and the release of the iWatch. There has been plenty of naysayers on TV telling us the stock has topped out, sold out, selling out of ideas and shrinking on margins, but it's still a good long term buy. With the recent very strong run this stock has been on, you would think it's time for some profit taking right? Well, you like everyone else can never really know, but what you can do is anticipate where price movement can go and then lay some orders looking for a good entry point.

 

 

 

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2/19/15 - Tomorrow is Feb expiration and there is always some volatility going on with AAPL and with the stock making all time highs every day this week,  we could see a bust out move, so I am looking for it to hold $127.50, but if the stock takes off in the morning, I will jump into some Mar 130 calls. There is the SGB to take note of and so long as the stock stays above it I am long and below I am short. The weekly chart has a potential Bear180 setup if the stock turns south, but with market momentum and the NASDAQ about to take out 5,000 we are at a pivotal historic moment and AAPL is the fuel for that fire on the NASDAQ. Remember, this stock split 7:1 so it's actually trading at $899.15 and that means $1,000 is the magnet price or $142.86. It takes a tremendous amount of volume to move the stock so you have to invest in more time AND fish for lower entry prices.

 

A very large Buy/Write was traded today on the Oct 15 150 calls indication a huge hedge fund or AAPL possibly betting on the upside or protecting for some downside. Tough to know, but over time we will be able to figure that out.

 

 

With major fund managers reducing and/or selling out, there could be a major correction coming so we have to be ready to play the direction the markets give us and for now it appears to be higher. The charts do have some good indicators to guide us so stick with the training I have given, and you will be able to make solid trading decisions to profit no matter how the stock moves.

 

 

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2/13/15 - AAPL has been on a very nice run post earnings, and as you can see, it does take more time so buying longer term options is the only way to go or selling premium spreads. This week we has some strong news that took the stock to new all time highs and now we have to consider this is a tipping point and time for profits to be taken. After hours, there was a news report that AAPL is working on an electric car? Huh??

 

Apple has several hundred employees working secretly toward creating an Apple-branded electric vehicle, according to people familiar with the matter. They said the project, code-named "Titan," has an initial design of a vehicle that resembles a minivan, one of these people said.

 

Maybe they should borrow a snippet off the Donna Summers song Bad Girls for their future car jingle...toot toot, yeah beep beep...lol

 

This news signals to me they are OUT OF INNOVATIVE IDEAS for "tech" type growth; however, since they have billions of dollars in cash reserves, they must be thinking it is time to branch out and take over the world...lol...and since there was no Apple TV rival to NFLX announced in the past several months, I guess they have bigger aspirations with developing planes, trains, and automobiles—a very strange course direction to take don't you think.

 

With the watch coming out and Apple Pay is gaining popularity, I guess the company is on the move to become a major conglomerate in all kinds of new vertical markets.

 

I believe this weeks action is going to prove to be the TOP and the stock is headed back down. David Tepper's hedge fund Appaloosa Management has now dumped all their shares in the company and Billionaire David Einhorn also reduced by 566,500 shares in the 4th quarter. It's looking like we may very well start to see a lot of that type of news coming out very soon, but until the iWatch is released, there is could be some more upside coming.

 

Today the stock put in a very large SGB on the 15 minute chart and I shorted it in the morning session picking up some profits and since it never took it out even with the afternoon rally, I think the after hours news is the signal a TOP is in. So, I will be using today's SGB range as my pivot point got long/short entry points.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1/27/15 - A resounding beat, revenue surprise and release of the iWatch in April and AAPL responds with a pathetic 9% move :-(

 

This is not a day trading stock anymore, it sure is a buy and hold investment! I am not confident any of my OTM plays will result in a profit so I will have to move to vertical spreads to collect premium as the stock moves on. It was being talked up at Fast Money but only with targets around $120 and then to short it. There are some reiterated price targets up to $150 and I am sure the stock can get there but over a lot longer time period so we will have to just manage the moves and go for base hits.

 

We will have to see how the stock is trading in the pre-market session tomorrow, and if it cannot get over $117.00 then we could get a decent gap and crap White Whale trade.

 

 

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1/26/15 - Earnings are tomorrow and AAPL has already had quite a nice pre-earnings run up that resulted in a SGB today! Although it is a strong short signal, we may very well get another upside surprise like we had this with NFLX; however, NFLX was sold off into SGB's, and when they beat, the shorts were squeezed and a massive multi-day rally ensued.

 

Ok, so what can we anticipate on AAPL this round? Well, it's basically trading at all time highs; and if they do not beat by a wide margin; then I think the SGB's will be true to history and this stock goes down. Of course, if they do beat, then the stock is on its way beyond $120, but can it hold that valuation with the institutional investors is the big question—we need their involvement to move the stock beyond $120.

 

My plan on this one is to get short term puts and long term calls plus some Bull/Bear Put Spreads to help finance; because a miss and the drop will be substantial; however, a beat and the moves higher will most likely come over a longer time line.

 

There was BIG action on the Mar 15 130 calls with 7,291 contracts traded and also the Feb15 105 puts with 3,116 trades.

 

 

The expected MMM is +/- 6.16 and the IV on weekly options is only 71% unlike NFLX that was over 150%.

 

 

The overall bias is heavily weighted to the calls at 447k vs 183k puts, with the biggest volume today was on the 120 Call strike price with 36,762 traded.

 

so the crowd is definitely betting AAPL goes higher which typically means a lot of overhead resistance that can minimize big moves higher.

 

This time I am going to do multiple orders on various strike price so I have a higher odds chance of making some profits should the stock just fizzle out this week. I will post a few for my subscribers and show all the rest of the trades I am doing. If you do not have large capital to absorb draw down should the stock fall flat, then just go with the 120 calls and 100 puts then do the vertical spreads to help finance them. I was a bit ticked off I did not load up a lot more on NFLX DOTM calls because the stock blew right on through the MMM so with AAPL we may get the same result so I am going to pick up some 125 Calls and 100 Puts which are 2x the expected MMM.

 

 

The charts show a massive pre-earnings rally ending in a decided SGB today and also the weekly chart is starting out as a SGB, so we should be in for a roller coaster ride similar to NFLX but most likely not as big.

 

 

 

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1/12/15 - As predicted by the SGB, AAPL was a good short today and that is what I did. I was profit stopped out on my day trading shares, but I still have long shares I am keeping. I was not filled yet on my fishing orders so I will see how the stock responds tomorrow.

 

 

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1/10/15 - Friday AAPL resulted in a good sized SGB which indicates a strong short signal. With earnings coming up later this month, I do not expect the stock to get whacked, but it certainly can get pushed around as investors decide if they want to hold on or get out. I expect news releases to start mounting this week going forward, so volatility is definitely going to pick up. Currently the IV for the Jan5 options is 41% and a +/- move of 8.56 is priced in. ATM calls are a whopping $4.10  and the puts are $4.05. This is stock is not a big mover any more and will most likely never be again in our trading lifetimes, but it is a decent mover if you time your entry points correctly. The best thing you can do with AAPL is trade for profits and start to accumulate shares to collect that fat dividend. Any stock can go up substantially and down to ZERO. AAPL is not immune to this phenomenon, but it's a pretty safe bet to buy into this stock for the foreseeable long term future. So, the best way to get in is selling premium so you get paid to trade this stock.

 

As for Lotto Trades, we need to fish multiple strikes and prices so let's get started and see what we can hook! I am looking for an initial SGB pull back so I am fishing for some calls this week and into the last week of Jan at a much lower entry point. When we get close to earnings, I will adjust positions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1/7/15 - The start of the new year and the markets are getting whacked taking AAPL down with them. With earnings coming up this month, this will be a critical time in AAPL history. With the very popular iPhone 6 and other products, investors are definitely looking for the company to more than exceed analysts estimates. There has been a lot of speculation as to where the company will increase growth. Will the iWatch be a hit or miss? Can they become the number one virtual currency with Apple Pay? We can only speculate based on opinions and hopes, but we are traders at the core and we eat what we kill so making sound investing decision and trading what the stock gives us is how we will navigate our way to success this year trading the big AAPL! As I start looking for trades, I plan to also keep on accumulating shares in this company for a long term investment because they pay a very fat dividend and I want to collect on it—you should too.

 

This year I plan to stick a lot closer to my Lotto Trade strategies and the SGB's for my short signals. As for day trading AAPL and other stocks, I will be primarily trading the Bull/Bear 180 pattern as it was extremely effective all last year!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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12/28/14 - AAPL put on a nice rally and was one of the top performers Friday for the last day of the holiday trading week. Options rose upwards of 1000% ROI if you were doing some lotto trade fishing in the opening session. (see charts below)

 

I am gong to make some changes to my Lotto trade strategies in 2015 because I have had some great success this year, but dang, I have missed out way too many because I have been to involved in day trading everything that appears to be moving vs. fishing for those big Lotto Trades—I feel like a dog chasing his tail or digging for a cache of bones and only digging up rocks most of the time...lol.

 

The game plan going forward is to just start laying fishing orders on option strikes under at 5% move in multiple stocks. Then I will sell monthly Iron Condor credit spreads to help finance the fishing trips until I/we catch some big Lotto trades and the occasional White Whale during earnings season.

 

Depending on your account size and experience, I would stick to no more than 4 stocks, but if you have a small account, then just pick ONE stock each month and layers your orders each day. I plan to start to follow 4 strike prices, and as the stock makes moves up  or down, I will adjust my strikes and orders accordingly. That way, I have the best odds of picking up trades inside the sudden movements which will in turn allow me catch a wild ride from week-to-week! There is not a week that goes by where I do not see several opportunities to cash in; however, when I try to "pick my spots" it seems the Stock and options I am attempting to get filled on allude me and I only see them after-the-fact. In my past successes, I noticed the biggest winners were the ones I just had floating orders way OTM and happened to get filled when the stock made a sudden unexpected move—I have come to the realization that you need to "let" it happen vs. trying to "make" it happen.

 

I am looking for that "Santa Clause Rally" this week, and if it happens, then I fully expect AAPL to power on up into the T1 or the SGB zone on the daily charts for this final week of trading in 2014. Here are my initial "new" orders for this week:

 

 

Since my bias is to the long side, I am going to pick up some Jan 14 Puts as a hedge just in case there is a new story that kills any momentum.

 

 

 

 

Here is a screen shot of Friday's options and as you can see, if you were fishing in any of these strikes, you had the potential to make some BIG BUCKS for a Friday Expiration.

 

 

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12/22/14 - So far, the reversal last week has been a bit of a drag as we approach the final trading days of 2014, but there is still hope that AAPL will reach up and touch T1. I have Jan 15's in play but we need a really good rally to kick in tomorrow if AAPL is going to make it beyond $115 by weeks end. I will be adding some more Jan Wk1 calls if AAPL happens to pull back under $111 this week.

 

 

 

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12/17/14 - Big reversal day after the Fed meeting and it may be just the kick starter we need to get old St. Nick coming down the chimney with bags full of cash!

With AAPL now putting in a Level 2 Bull 180 setup, we need to see it hold the line on the chart and time to stay long with a retracement target back to the SGB. I was filled on my DecWk4 115 calls and will hold them looking for a good profit by years end.

 

 

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12/13/14 - Tough times in the markets as oil dropped to new lows so did everything else. AAPL has has some nervous Nelly news to scare the children but rest assured, this stock is just going to move along and all the pull backs are nothing more than buy opportunities. The pain is if you are trading short term weekly options and happen to be on the wrong side of the action. This is why selling spreads can be a better opportunity in uncertain times because you have a fixed risk/reward to help you navigate until a solid direction and/or momentum is in place. Once the stock pulled back to my T2 line, it jumped right up in a very strong Bull Elephant bar, but with the overall markets getting whacked, investors just took profits. We are in the windup for 2014 and I suspect last weeks selling is about to end and that age old "Santa Clause Rally" is about to start. Of course that is a widely disseminated concept in the markets and it certainly does not mean it is a lock; however, speculating makes for interesting opportunities.  Day trading AAPL has been fun and this week is a pivot point of no return(s) for this stock as we wrap up 2014. A move lower on Monday should result in a blowout of short term longs and I will be looking for an initial spike lower with big volume—a capitulation day if you will. Now if we get an immediate rally at the open then I am assuming the Bull Elephant bar from last week is going to hold and we are off to the races so I will get aggressively long shares and some weekly calls.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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12/4/14 - Losing momentum or just taking a needed break? On Monday there was a big 60 million share block trade which seems to have spooked investors. The stock tested the last SGB zone today and pulled back into the close, so now we have a clear long signal and if AAPL trades back over it get long. If the selling continues, I think buyers are just hoping for a pull back to $110.00 so I plan to start buying in some shares and other long positions into Jan 2015.

 

 

 

 

 

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11/30/14 - Next stop $120 and maybe beyond? With AAPL reaching new all time highs last week, we can expect even more as Christmas shopping season kicks off and the iPhone 6 is extremely popular and in huge world wide demand. As long as AAPL trades above the SGB I am in long positions and if it pulls back under the SGB, I expect it to be bought aggressively by investors who are just pissed off they listened to the talking heads on CN-BLAH-C and sat out of this massive run! If we do get a pull back, shorting is a very risky play so put only ALL OR NOTHING money into puts if you short.

 

 

 

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11/26/14 - AAPL just keeps on climbing every day and looking like a lot more to come so keep getting long and buy dips!! I have been trading AAPL daily and what a nice ride we have had! I did buy a few puts for Friday but it is not looking like they will pan out so I did not post the trades. Any positive news of a deal with BABA and the stock will move a lot higher in my estimation. I am chomping at the bit for a pull back so I can really load up on some Lotto calls but we are just not getting anything for the time being.

 

Never got the pull back so I jumped in on the calls Monday and so far a nice ride! Still fishing for a Bull Put Spread but need AAPL to pull back.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11/22/14 - Friday produced a classic gap and crap across the board on AAPL because that is what the overall DJ-30 did.  This event produced a SGB on the daily chart for AAPL, but with the current momentum in the stock, any pull backs will be bought. I am adjusting my T-Levels now that I have two clearly marked setups to guide me.

 

If you review the chart below, we can see this impressive rally started with a gap up SGB and now it could be reversed (initially) with this SGB. If you notice the very large wick that was produced last Monday, then its important to see the stock did NOT take out that gravestone doji wick by Friday's close. This is typically interpreted as a bearish reversal candle, but with AAPL, it can certainly be ignored, so any dips to T2 and T3 are buy points for me.

 

The weekly chart has been in a parabolic bullish move now for 5 weeks and if we do get a red bar started this week, that would be a Level 1 Bear 180; however, I would only be looking for a pull back to T2 or T3 to get aggressively LONG. I do plan on shorting the stock for some day trading action if we get a lower start, but caution should be used and quick profits taken.

 

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11/20/14 - NICE RALLY!! Price target upgrades to $200 and it's looking like AAPL is going to just keep moving higher. I am hoping for a little pull back and I will get in very aggressively!! If you followed the $100 calls...congrats!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11/16/14 - Momentum has built up so much in AAPL investors are piling in like lemmings in fear of missing an opportunity. This move all week has been impressive to be sure, but the volume has been less impressive. Of course, it appears that way on charts, but you have to realize this stock trades 7x more shares so actually the volume is very impressive indeed.

 

What is the reason for this impressive move? It's the mention by Alibaba CEO they are open to a "deal" with Apple and that could very well be announced at any time so the stock will continue to move higher and any dips will be heavily bought until that news is out. Of course, the long it takes for that to happen, the slower the continuation rally will get.

 

I am estimating that AAPL can move all the way up to $120 on future compelling news such as this so that would be the farthest OTM call strikes I would buy.

 

 

 

 

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11/9/14 - Nice moves to new all time highs since my last post, but even though it's been in rally mode, the ROI on calls has been a lot less than I am accustomed to when trading AAPL. The stock traded sideways all week and it currently inside a SGB zone so we have a sold pivot point to make trade decisions. I am still a strong BULL so any dips back to the 21MA is a strong buy for me.

 

 

 

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11/2/14 - The big AAPL is back, or so it seems. I am still a strong bull on this stock, so I am looking for some more opportunities to continue to get long positions on.

 

 

 

 

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10/29/14 - Finally this stocks make a very good move and advances to all time highs!! Will this continue is the big question you have to ask. I am strong Bull on this stock so the answer for me is a resounding yes and any dips will be buy opportunities. I would not directly short AAPL but I will sell Bear Call Spreads if another SGB shows up.

 

 

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10/21/14 - AAPL beats earnings and guides a lot higher, but the stock trades relatively flat. What a bummer we cannot get the HUGE moves anymore. The 7:1 split just killed all the volatility so this stock is just not going to be the Lotto Play or White Whale trade it once was very long time. I plan to just accumulate some shares and sell premium spreads in the future.

 

 

Most likely, this stock will trail off now that all the products and news are out. All investors have going forward is the dividend payout. Future sales growth will most likley be very strong but not a game changer until they come out with the, "next big thing." Become a seller of premium is the best way to play AAPL going forward and with the IV so low, you have to fish for a better price and take profits at 25% of the premium value.

 

Today the stock gapped up, but turned into a SGB short signal. If the stock moves back under $102, then short it and sell Naked or Bear Call Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

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10/19/14 - Tomorrow is earnings after the bell and we definitely need a very big beat or this stock is a "sell the news" event; however, the stock is a long term buy and hold if you are looking for a solid investment—it is just not a short-term Lotto type option play any longer.

 

Looking over the options volume for clues shows us no BIG bets were being taken on Friday except some protection protection positions:

 

A BuyWrite is a strategy used to protect long shares—you buy stock then sell a covered call.

 

As for the general open interest, there is more action on the call side indicating the stock is going DOWN post earnings because the crowd is usually wrong, but we are dealing with AAPL and the sentiment is that it WILL GO DOWN so a surprise will cause shorts to cover so you have to play both sides on this one.

 

The MMM is currently at: and weekly IV is Low:

 

So, is there a play here? All the sings say NO, but that is when we can get the most explosive move if there is a big upset. My plan is to speculate at 2x the MMM on Puts and buy calls at the MMM. The only challenge is its a Monday and the options will be packed with IV; however, we do have an entire week for the play to potentially work out, but I am not expecting anything like we got on NFLX.

 

DO NOT BET BIG ON THIS ONE, there will be plenty of better trades coming: CMG, FB, TSLA, PCLN etc.

 

Ok, so how low can AAPL go? The monthly chart has the stock in a Bear 180 setup, so the first likely target is T3 on a big disappointment; however, this a monthly chart so moves can take a while. You may recall, AAPL has a multi-billion dollar buy back in place and when earnings are released, we will see how much of that has been completed. I have said below, that AAPL needs to close the gap on the outstanding shares before it can increase the volatility moves so we have a long wait before that happens.

 

 

 

 

 

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10/16/14 - AAPL announced the new iPad air2 and iMac, but it was not anything innovative, just a tweak on the same-old so the stock yet again fails to rally. With earnings on Monday, they are going to have to beat by a very wide margin and guide much higher which is going to be difficult. Still, the stock is a good buy for long term investing, but it is just not a good trading stock for short term options so I am not adding anything new and after earnings I will be dropping it from my hot list if they do not get a move on.

 

As I pointed out, the SGB's were 100% accurate as a SHORT signal so if you did short then congrats. In the past two days, the stock is testing my T4 line and that wicks on the candles are indicating BIG MONEY IS GETTING OUT. If they miss, the only institution that will buying this stock is AAPL...lol. Now if they beat, we could see a very good move higher as the naysayers and doubters will be clamoring to get back in. It's not a new long until the stock takes out all of the SGB's and any big dips I will still be a buyer.

 

 

 

 

 

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10/12/14 - Multiple SGB's indicating this stock is getting reduced by institutional investors and with the massive float, it will not be a big mover for a very long time. With such low volatility, it's just not a good candidate any more for short term options trades and sadly, I will be backing off trading AAPL until I see things change substantially.

 

Earnings are 10/20/14 and this one will be pivotal for the the stock into 2015 so I will look to trade it at the end of the week since I already have a lot of trades going on and they expire on Friday.

 

 

 

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10/4/14 - Is AAPL just at the end of its growth road? I do not think so, but for short term volatility, it has increasingly become a DUD to trade. Until more of the float is sucked up by investors, this stock will just not make moves on a large scale. This does give us opportunities to sell strangles and Iron Condos because the movements are more predictable, but you have to time your entries after earnings cycles. I am still looking for the stock to get over $103, but that is most likely going to take a very strong earnings report before the stock can find those long term investors to load up. As much as I love this, stock, I am going to back off on short term trading and only focus on trading the stock around earnings cycles for the future.

 

 

 

 

 

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9/28/14 - Negative news keeps  hitting this stock and investors sell for really no good reason so the stock snaps right back every time. There is still talking heads saying its headed back to the 80's but that will no doubt still be met with even more buyers. Apple is headed into it's prime season and with all the negative news, it's now poised to finally make that move over $103. Once that happens, I think we will see a much larger move than we have since the split. What I am looking for is a move and close over the SGB from last week to convince me this stock is finally on its way—a failure of this SGB and I will start to buy some puts.

 

 

 

 

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9/23/14 - We are about to take out the all time high's, but it will be tough with the 3-way SGB zone. I am still a super bull on this stock, so a move over this zone, and I get more longs on. A failure and I will wait to see if AAPL gets back down to T3. Notice how it bounced exactly at my T1 three times?—technical genius I am...lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9/21/14 - It is official! AAPL iPhone 6 has been released with a massive BANG! iPhone devotees were lined up for blocks to get their hands on the new gadgets. It was the biggest and most successful launch to date for the company; however, it was muted by the BABA IPO which sucked out all the upside that should have happened for AAPL. In the past, the stock has exploded higher on positive product releases, but now with 5.99 BILLION shares outstanding, it will take YEARS for this stock to make substantial moves. The current stats are:

 

You want to keep an eye on the % Held by institutions. Once that number rises, then we will start to see bigger moves in the stock, but it's going to take a very long time; so for now, the stock will move in controlled patterns with low volatility. The best strategy to take advantage is selling Iron Condors. The biggest challenge is the stocks price is so low right now, the premiums are very low if you stay 2 standard deviations away from the current price action. The other way to trade this is with my "No Risk Day Trading" strategy because you can safely sell Naked Puts then buy cheaper puts for protection and start day trading shares. What you want to do is to start accumulation shares of AAPL with profits you make, that way you can start to benefit from the strong dividend payouts and watch your money grow over the next decade and beyond.

 

As for the trading action on Friday, well, it was a disappointment and investors dumped the stock with accelerated selling into the close.  It's most likely going to continue next week, so I plan to buy into a dip down to my T2 and T3 levels as I stated below. Most of the talking heads on CN-BLAH-C are saying to short the stock and look for a bottom around the mid 80's, but what do they know? Sure, sometimes they get it right, but I have to say, that in my 17 years of watching them (yawn), if you do the OPPOSITE of everything the talk about, you will come out better in the long run—that being said, AAPL is now a long term investment trade until we see the stock's float reduce by a substantial amount.

 

Note: AAPL is now under the SGB zone and that means we look to bearish strategies until it gets back over $103.00

 

 

 

 

 

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9/13/14 - Today the company announced that sales / profits are in record territory as the upcoming iPhone 6 get released. There was also some news they have to delay distribution due to the overwhelming demand and that barely stopped investors from jumping on board. Now that the stock has retraced over 55% of the recent dump from the Samsung news, it's a good bet the will be a full test of the all time highs. Many "guru" and talking heads on TV keep pitching the stock has priced in the iPhone and since the watch is viewed as kind of a gimmick (for now), it will not have significant impact for over a year since it's not even going to be release for at least 6 months. The real story is the Apple Pay angle. This has the potential to catapult the company into a new era of cashless euphoria for Trendie's and Millennials.

 

On Friday, there were rumors that Ebay may be bought out by GOOGL and that launched the stock up almost 3%. This is the the type of news you want to see, because that validates AAPL's move into the space as a true threat to competition (PayPal). It may be a fact the iPhone 6 is "priced" in, but the Apple Pay biz model is future revenue generation and it's being used to "sell" the idea of cashless transactions to the public. This has been tried before in the past via banks, but consumers were not buying into the idea, but now that AAPL is doing it, well, it's just COOL right? 

 

I am not a fan of a 100% "cashless society" for my transactions, but I have to admit, I no longer use checks and pay for just about everything with either Cash or Debit cards. Once the Apple Pay starts, I will no doubt use that too, so for me, AAPL is a long-term investment right now; and I plan to day trade and convert profits to shares to hold onto.

 

There are several blogs now espousing that Apple Pay will not have a significant impact to their bottom line, but do you really want to best against AAPL? Right or wrong, it will take time to figure that out, and for now, investors are in love with the idea; and that means my bias is to the upside and will trade accordingly. I plan to keep buying into any dips because I know for a fact, AAPL certainly is buying into any dips of their stock.

 

I have several plays on and I am hopeful AAPL can take out the SGB zone this week, but if the stock falls back under my T1 line, then I will look to buy dips at T2 and aggressively at T3—AAPL is a long term play now, so we just manage trades and start to accumulate shares with profits we make on option trades.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9/9/14 - What should have been, may still happen but over a longer time period. Today the company delivered what was expected: New iPhone(s), mobile payments and the iWatch. All these things could not get the big money to step on the buy gas because there was nothing "new" or unexpected, so instead, the stock was beat (no pun intended) down all  day with a final close lower!!! In addition to that, they decided not to do the sapphire screen (most likely because the cost would have been too high for the consumer) I was so excited in the morning session as my profits were up nearly $50k and by the end of the day I am at a loss....frustrating to say the least. I still have plenty of time on several positions so anything can happen, but for now it appears the stock will continue to slide in the short term. I suspect a lot of stocks will most likely get dumped to raise cash for the upcoming Alibaba IPO.  In addition tot hat, AMZN dropped the price of the Fire Phone down to $0.99 cents which may dampen sales for the iPhone in the short term. It's going to take a full quarter before we see how the new products effect the stock. It has been said that AAPL is a stock you need to own vs. trade and after today, I have agree with that.

 

All I know is I definitely will be buying the iPhone 6 Plus—I may even buy the iWatch too.

 

Short term trading in AAPL with weekly options can make you money; however, you have to fish for entry points and be ready to take profits. For example, here is what happened today at the 100 Strike price:

 

PUTS

 

CALLS

 

There is no doubt in my mind that my weekly 105 and higher calls will most likely expire worthless, so if AAPL happens to trade back over $100 tomorrow, then I will just take anything I can get and look for new opportunities. Heck, I do not even expect the stock to drop low enough either, so these short term trades are pretty much a bust and I will just have to work on damage control and recoup the losses over time. In the long run, I am still very bullish on the stock so I plan to accumulate shares, sell premium and write covered calls etc.

 

On CN-BLAH-C there was a report from Dr. J just before the event that someone bought up 10,000 contracts of the SepWk2 107's and, well, that is looking like a very bad bet so far. I certainly hope the stock could rally, but I certainly do not expect it to.

 

 

 

 

 

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9/6/14 - What a week of volatility and upset for AAPL. Their big competition with Samsung has turned into a knock down brawl as Samsung announced last week they have a new smart watch (Gear S) that does not need to link to a phone. They also released the Gear VR which uses the the FB Oculus technology. This caused an immediate dump of AAPL shares by investors; and the stock did not recover the rest of the week—now it's going to take a substantial game changer product to get  big money buying up AAPL shares going forward.

 

As you can see in the chart below, the stock was well on it's way to $105 this last week, but now it has closed under $100 again, so getting that explosive move over $115 is now a very unlikely scenario. Sure, anything can happen, but all the wind was taken out of the sails and it appears the stock has run aground. I am buying into the 110 Calls for next week's lotto play and I sold some Bull Put Spreads into October; I have my puts in place in the event the stock gets crushed, but how low can it really go? I estimate the maximum drop would be around 10% or the $85.00 range because the company has a multi-billion dollar buy back in play; and I am sure they have orders ready to buy up millions of shares.

 

This event is going to be nothing less than a game changer for the stock, and if they do not have the "best" of the bunch in new products, consumers are going to spend money on all the other competitors products killing the bottom line with AAPL and this all the big money funds look at in order to justify paying more than a stock is actually worth.

 

The past couple of days, all the talking heads are saying to NOT buy into the event and wait for the news. Well, if you do that, then you miss out on any explosive moves and since we are day traders and speculator, we buy ahead and manage what we get!

 

I hope the company comes through and we get a massive squeeze higher this week!

 

 

 

Looking over the volume in options on Friday, there was a 20k contract spread traded and that is most likley the better strategy since you have defined risk and reward.

 

 

There was some strong put buying at $86-98 strikes as investors jockey for position with next weeks options but a lot more calls were bought.

 

 

For the Sep. expiration we have heavy resistance at $100 and $105.00

 

 

The  game plan for me is adding to all my positions with some Sep Wk2 $110 calls and some Oct Puts.

 

Below is a list of all my positions in AAP.

 

NOTE: I do not post all my trades on the site; just the ones I feel are the best opportunities for my subscribers.

 

 

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8/30/14 - We are getting ever so closer to the "BIG" event on 9/9/14 and the unveiling of the new iPhone and other exciting products! I know this stock has the potential to move higher, but with 7x the outstanding shares, it will take a long time before those shares are bought up so the big moves of the past are not going to happen for a while. As you can see from the daily and weekly charts, the stock has made some impressive moves, but mathematically, those moves are are only a $9.00 move over a three week time period compared to the old days when the stock would move $7.00-20.00 in a single day. Of course that is because it was trading at $650 per share, so the percentage move was magnified. If you multiply the recent move by a factor of 7, AAPL has gained $62.30; which, in the old days, made you thousands of dollars trading options. Now we get smaller gains, but they can be consistent which makes premium selling a better bet.

 

 

Here is a chart of the Sep 100 calls to show you how the split has impacted profit gains vs. the old days. My Sep 100 calls are only up 128% vs. the old days when I would be up 500% or more by now. Still, it's a good profit, but as you can see, the split makes gains on your option plays much tougher. Now you have to buy a lot more contract to make the big profits, and that take a lot more capital and guts.

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8/26/14 - It had to do it, they had to set up an SGB! Well, that means we are in for some potential selling and if AAPL takes out that SGB, its ON FOR HIGHER PRICES. I am still confident the stock will hold over $100 so any dips down to the $98 area will be bought by bargain hunters for sure. We also have a Level 2 Bear 180 starting, but I am looking for entry points for long plays—I will have more puts in place before the 9/9/14 product announcements.

 

 

 

 

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8/24/14 - Continued new highs for AAPL! Momentum has shifted to positive and the excitement of new products are going to continue to drive the stock higher until 9/9/14. Of course there could be some dips, but I am sure they will be heavily bought and if the markets support higher ground, I do not expect AAPL to stay under $100.

 

I plan on getting some ore October Calls and will move out to some November if I see that AAPL will hold $100 this week.

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8/21/14 - ALL TIME HIGH for AAPL! Today, the stock closed as a perfect DOJI and now it's decision time for investors. Will they kill it on new products or get killed is the big question. All eyes and ears on on AAPL in the coming weeks as they get ever closer to announcing the much anticipated product releases. With so much pressure on the stock, I just cannot imagine management is going to disappoint so get ready for some BIG BIG moves higher. Of course, we know it certainly can go the other way, so my plan is to overweight longs and carry enough puts to get a break even if things go sour apples.

 

 

 

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8/18/14 - AAPL is about to take out $100 and once that happens, the skies the limit, so we really need a game changing product event and it's LOTTO TICKET profits!!

 

At least that is what I am hoping for since I have loaded up on the 115 Sep calls; however, I am not so sure the stock can move enough without more time. Since the split, the stock has never moved much more than 5% over a weeks time; and we currently need better than 20% to make a huge profit. As much as I want to believe the stock will do it, I am not confident it can move like the Good Ol' Days. If the stock does not get moving over $100 this week, then I will have to add some Oct positions to make sure I have enough time once the product release hits.

 

Speaking of that, AAPL has an event coming on 9/9/14 which is most likely the big day, so there should be continued buying interest into the event. That being the case, if the stock moves over $100 on a closing basis, then I will sell some OTM Bull Put Spreads. Once we get close to the event, I will buy PUTS just in case the product release is a total bust.

 

 

 

First day of trading for the Sep options cycle and another HUGE contract buy as a spread was bought today; however, when it's traded as "red" that means it was SOLD so is this someone getting out or getting net long?

 

 

 

I was looking back to previous posts to see how that investor who bought those 20k Oct 675 Calls has been doing and it appears they are still in there holding on.

 

 

 

So far they are up a whopping $34 MILLION DOLLARS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8/17/14 - The much anticipated product release in imminent and if they blow away everyone this stock is poised to make a HUGE move. On the other side of the coin, if they disappoint, the breakdown to T3 is a sure bet in my estimation. I am a forever Bull on AAPL but it's getting tough to keep an optimistic bias on as we move down the road that is becoming competing rocky. I am still speculating heavily on the long side, but I will have puts in play too and as the stock moves up, I will add higher strike prices on the puts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8/10/14 - AAPL has been selling off for 8 days now Friday was the bounce so  I am looking for buyers and speculators to start driving this stock higher in anticipation of the up coming product releases. Most likely there will be no announcement until later this month, but you never know so start building some positions and hope for the explosion to the upside! One of the "guru" talking heads on Fast Money announced he is "short" this stock figuring the new products are priced in and not going to be a blow out surprise. He is certainly a minority of opinion out there, but we know if they do not knock it out of the park the stock will definitely find lower prices. I do not expect it to crash and with a multi-billion buy back in place, the stock will have plenty of buy support. Question is, will this stock become a $500 plus player again in the future?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8/4/14 - Time to start nibbling on long positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7/30/14 - Just waiting for the new products and we are exploding over $100 if they are a success. I am a buyer on any dips back to T4

 

 

 

 

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7/28/14 - Almost there and once it does break over $100 it's ON!

 

 

 

 

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7/27/14 - Time for AAPL to take out $100 and move on up to the new heights we have been waiting for since the split.

 

 

 

 

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7/23/14 - Ok so today we get the move, but it's barely enough to move make ITM money options profitable and we are still OTM on the 98's, so if AAPL does not get a move on tomorrow, we may have a bust on this round of Lotto trades.

 

I am hoping investors keep pushing this stock to $100 this week, but until they release the new product line, anything beyond that is going to be more of the same, small controlled moves higher. If you are a premium seller, that is exactly what you want so you can get time decay and make small consistent profits.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7/22/14 - What a dud reaction this earnings report turned out to be. They reported a small than expected 6 percent rise in revenue due to a slip in iPad sales even though the company experienced strong growth in China. Initial reaction in after hours was a sell but investors figured that was a bargain opportunity and pushed the stock back up to a nearly flat close. Talking heads were out touting the news is out and behind us, now we focus on the upcoming product releases and year end sales which is the best time of the year for AAPL. There is still hope the stock will move higher the rest of the week, but its painfully clear that short term options are not long the play with this stock going forward.

 

The company announced:

Apple's board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $.47 per share of the Company's common stock. The dividend is payable on August 14, 2014, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 11, 2014.

This should keep the stock at current levels and hopefully get it moving higher going forward, but we will need to buy a lot more time on options and/or just sell premium spreads and let time decay money into your account.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7/21/14 - AAPL is being stealthy ahead of tomorrow earnings release. Another HUGE trade today on the Aug 110 Straddle

 

 

This trader spent some BIG BIG bucks for only a month of time. Would you be willing to do it? You would think they have some INSIDE intel or they think they have more money than God to gamble with...lol

 

 

The 93 puts were filled so I am lowering my strike price for tomorrow and will buy the 90's at the open.

 

 

 

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7/20/14 - Big time contracts still being bought on AAPL as investors place bets for the upcoming earnings announcement on Tuesday after the bell.

 

 

There is a lot of anticipation on this stock to surprise the world with game changing products and if that do not happen, it's going to be a slaughter. The daily chart shows the stock was heavily SOLD most of the week with a relief rally Friday that closed under my T1 and SGB from the last big sell off.  The anticipation is for AAPL to move over $100 a share and that allegedly will explode the stock higher, but that is what everyone wants. I know I want that too, but many times more than not, the crowd is wrong. I like the prospects of higher prices so I am definitely in for bullish plays, but I know if this stock disappoints the drop can be significant so I plan on speculating with DOTM puts in Aug just in case that disappointment comes.

 

 

 

 

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7/13/14 - AAPL is just not a day trading stock any more since the split, but it should still has some umph to it once the products get released, that is, if they are a success. There is still a lot of option activiity and Friday someone placed another HUGE bet onOct 95 calls so BIG money is betting the APPL tree will rise again.

 

 

Earnings are set to be released next Tuesday the 22nd and that should kick off the the race over $100 if they are a blow out again, but since this stock is stuck in the mud, you have to buy MORE time to assure you have a high probability chance of making profits.

 

The cautious part of trading call options is that AAPL is putting in SGB's, but even if the stock pulls back, it will not be crash with a multi-billion buy back in play and other institutional type investors because they pay a huge dividend now and will keep big money hanging around. Plus, with a price under $100, that will keep millions of small interested. Also, this company make money, has awesome in demand products and bazillions is cash reserves so this stock is a valuation keeper for a long time even if they miss a beat here and there. Speaking of beats, they may have made a great move buying up Beats Music too. With smart phone sales slowing down around the world, it will take other verticals to keep this company on the grow or can they do it gain and change the game with the iPhone 6—as option traders we all certainly hope so, because this stock was a HUGE money maker and I hope it can become one again in the future.

 

When a strong stock becomes an albatross, we have less opportunities to profit with short term options and there are definitely fewer multi-hundreds percent ROI trades except for earnings cycles. The way to play these stocks is with Iron Condor spreads so you can begin to capture premium decay (Theta) with contract size. Since the split, AAPL has a weekly ATR of $2.00-$3.00, so you can sell spreads just outside that move and target your profits at 25% of the premium sold—just wait until earnings are done.

 

The daily chart shows us a bullish cup-n-handle pattern and with the SGB's it will get volatile if they prove to be their usual short signal setups; however, I am still bullish on this stock. I still have my longer term calls in place and I plan to speculate with some weekly calls under the $100 strike price.

 

If you want to trade long plays, then continue to fish for lower entry points on options with a delta of .70 or higher if you want the best chance to profit on weekly options. If you plan on speculating the stock will move higher and you want to buy OTM, then go no further than $3 OTM and buy more size to get leverage working for you—be sure to take profits quicker.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7/9/14 - Moves and grooves is what AAPL does. Until they make a significant announcement, this stock will inch its way higher. This is a stock you just need to be in and hope it blasts off when the product news is released...keep fishing for better entry points and stay UNDER $100 strike prices.

 

 

 

 

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7/7/14 - AAPL is on the move today and looking ready for a push to $100 over the next week or two! The options are moving but not the multi-hundred to thousand percent ROI we like to get so you have to pick your spots and hold on for the ride.

 

Because AAPL is trading under $100 a share, you cannot get big moves so you need to counter this by buying options with higher DELTA. So target your entry points with a delta factor of .55 or higher. As you can see below, the higher delta options had the biggest ROI and the OTM options had the lowest. Of course, the OTM options allow you to buy more contracts for a leverage play, but that will ALWAYS carry extremely high risk of 100% loss unless the stock climbs higher EVERY DAY. Any pull backs, and your profits will get crushed in minutes so take profits and reload if you do OTM.

 

 

 

 

 

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6/27/14 - Just a little more is what I kept saying all day as AAPL had an impressive rise—the biggest one day move since the split. If you are looking at the weekly chart, you can see AAPL bounced right off my T2 line and so now we are off to the races for the SGB zone. Until that is taken out, AAPL is vulnerable to stalled rallies and reversal of direction but I am a SUPER BULL on this stock heading into earnings. We have the upcoming product announcements and that will give rise to the stock. When AAPL clears $93.00, technical investors will begin to jump in, but there will need to be a catalyst to really get the stock moving. Remember, they now have 7x the number of outstanding shares, so that takes a lot more volume to move the stock significantly higher which makes it more difficult to trade with weekly options and get the White Whale type ROI.

 

 

 

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6/24/14 - Just slipping down a little bit each day as AAPL looks for support with investors. The daily MA's are rolling over and that is when things start to get volatile so we need to start picking up a couple positions because when a move happens, it happens faster than you can react to it. I fully expect a battle to be fought at the 8ma on the weekly chart in the next couple of days so I am looking to fish for a lower entry price on the JunWk4 89.64's.

 

 

 

 

Risk Reward Trade:

 

Let's assume AAPL is going to be a DOA stock when the announce the new products. So, I will buy 200 contracts of the Jul 84 puts as a hedge / lotto ticket since they are SO CHEAP right now I can control 20,000 shares for practically nothing and if there is a market / stock disaster, I have the potential to make a ton of profits.

 

 

 

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6/21/14 - I am disappointed AAPL was kept under wraps since the split but I knew it was coming so that is the way things go when you speculate OTM. We win some and we lose some but we certainly WON A TON before the split! Ok, so now we just start to build positions because I am confident this company is about to release another revolutionizing product(s) and that will translate into a strong move well over $100 a share. Of course, I am overly optimistic, but hey, if you had the chance to buy AAPL under $100 a share years ago, would you have done it?

 

This company is NEVER going out of business so keep buying, fishing and speculating on the long side on every dip this stock takes. Remember, they have massive institutional investors, the company has multi-billions in buy back programs, so this stock will NOT drop significantly until they make a big disappointment at earnings. If you disagree with my upside enthusiasm, then consider buying (the day before the next earnings release) monthly puts above the 200 MA on the weekly chart as your insurance policy just in case the stock does get crushed.

 

Until the strikes get sorted out, it will be a little confusing to pick strike prices, and now that the stock is under $100, it will not have the HUGE price swings we used to get, so you have to play closer to the money (except for earnings time) and the best way to enter trades is FISH for lower prices. I would buy 1 contract at the price posted and fish for more at least 13%-34% lower becaue I am sure the market makers will always be on the hunt for enthusiastic suckers every morning with inflated IV....lol.

 

 

 

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6/19/14 - A little bit of news today about the iWatch started to lift the stock but hardly enough to make any options move. My Jun 14 trades are most likely to expire worthless tomorrow...BUMMER...but no worries, since I banked HUGE during the split run et al.

 

I have begun adding some positions in AAPL for next week and will start selling some spreads to collect premium. I do not expect a really big move in the stock until they actually make the new iPhone 6 announcement but I fully anticipate the stock to get over $100.

 

I do not expect AAPL to move up that much tomorrow since open interest is massive between 91.43 - 93.57 and I am sure the market makes want to expire all the premium as close to ZERO as possible, but I know that is when you can catch the biggest White Whale's, so fishing is definitely a choice tomorrow.

 

 

Here is my next risk/reward Bull Put Spread or Bull Call Spread depending on your risk tolerance.

 

Deep ITM credit Spread (assignment risk / extra comission)

 

 

Deep OTM Debit Spread ( max lloss but money spent)

 

 

 

 

 

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6/16/14 - No news, No rally :-(  With the upcoming AMZN phone announcement and reveal, I do not see AAPL making any moves until later in the week and I do not expect it to get anywhere near $100 by Friday expiration. That means I have to roll out to longer time frames and this split Lotto play is going to fail to achieve the profits I hoped for. Until AAPL can clear the current SGB, it's just not going to find any momentum buyers. I do not think it will make a big decline and technical analysts are pricing in a $100 target as fair value for the stock so that should keep some buy interest. I really do not think anybody who owns shares at $90 or higher have any intention of selling no matter what happens in the short term, so any continued dips to the 21MA on the daily or 8MA on the weekly chart should be bought.

 

 

 

 

 

============================================================================================================

6/13/14 - Well the week turned into a total dud for the post split rally. That SGB on Tuesday proved yet again to just SHORT every time you see one and you will come out ahead in the long run. We still have a week to go on the Jun options, but it's just not looking good, so if you want to keep your name in the game, then you need to roll out to Aug/Oct $100 calls. You can sell some $90 Bull Put Spreads too. Remember, there is still that $40+ million bet on those October calls and you have to assume that person, fund, or just AAPL must know something so we need to follow that elephant to the water hole.

 

If you have been with me on AAPL over the past month, then you are more than satisfied with your profits and this weeks disappointment is just business as usual and we just need to keep fishing for the next big Lotto or White Whale!

 

 

====================================================================================================================

 

6/12/14 - DANG SGB's!!  Sometimes you just do not want those SGB short signals to work out but 80% of the time they are the perfect short signals. Well, I am still a major bull on AAPL so I will just keep adding long positions on dips. What pains me not is the Weekly Chart is finishing the week as a SGB. Since AAPL did not make any news announcements and it was not added to the DJ30 yet, profit takers stepped in and it is not looking like it's over for tomorrow.

 

 

=======================================================================================================

6/10/14 - Time to get the show on the road!  AAPL is now trading just under $660 (split un-adjusted) and we need that news event to happen to really heat things up but today has turned into a SGB...gag...I can only hope will be IGNORED and we are off to the $100+ races.

 

 

==========================================================================================================

6/8/14 - The split is complete and now we wait for the BIG pay off!! Or so we hope there is going to be one. At least we have two weeks for a rally to begin. I was bummed out that AAPL did not hit my high target of $655 but that was due to the AMZN news. Now if AAPL does make product announcements early, then we are in line for a potentially HUGE rally now that everyone can afford to get several pieces of AAPL pie!

 

 

 

 

 

==================================================================================================================

 

6/5/14 - Tomorrow is the BIG DAY and last chance to get in on the split. If you are not already in profitable positions, then jumping in tomorrow may not be that great of an idea if the stock is not moving higher out the gate. Today was supposed to be a nice move over $650 and close around $655 which I am still anticipating, but news on AMZN killed the rally in APPL today.

10:27 AM EDT, 06/05/2014 (MT Newswires) -- Amazon (AMZN) is planning to unveil a smartphone with 3D technology at its Seattle headquarters on June 18, various press outlets reported citing an invitation sent out by the e-commerce giant on Wednesday.

I was so pissed off that I did not find out about it until 8am PST, and by then, AMZN was already up $13.00. Needless to say, had I known when the news story broke, I would have been all over this one with 100 contracts. The JunWk1 320 calls opened at $0.08 cents and reach $9.00!!!!!! OMG!!!!!

 

That's it!! From now on I will be placing OTM orders on multiple stocks every Wed night and Thur night. I suggest you fish no higher than $0.20 cent entry points so you can get filled and many times you will get price improvement too. Start with 1 contract per order and only add additional contracts when you start to make profits. Be sure to keep checking the White Whale page for current trade ideas.

 

Ok, back to AAPL.

 

News like the AMZN alleged phone would normally have crushed AAPL to a negative close, but I am thinking that maybe AAPL is already going to come out with a 3D display and AMZN is trying to get ahead of the curve by pre-announcing. No matter how things play out, AAPL is still poised to make BIG moves tomorrow and post split. Ideally, we need to see this stock move over $650 and then rise at least 10% or more in the next two weeks to make the Lotto Plays really kick in with huge profits!!

 

Tomorrow is a key Non-Farm payroll release, and that will no doubt move the markets so if we get positive news, I fully expect a solid move higher but if we get bad news and markets sell off, I will still take a shot on an initial pull back and get long some more Jun 14 and July 14 calls.

 

NOTE: I will buy a couple of ATM JUNE Wk2 PUTS by the end of trading if AAPL moves higher.

 

 

 

 

 

========================================================================================================

6/4/14 - I cannot believe I was stopped out of my calls today !@!@#$ at the open. I really do NOT like using stop loss order...the freaking computers HUNT for them!!

 

When I saw that, I closed out my 690's and then bought some lower strike Jun14's which I am holding into the split.

 

There was a massive 20,000 call purchase of the OCT 14 675 CALLS today for $21.70. Wow, somebody is laying a $43 Million dollar bet AAPL will be trading well over $96.00 per share before October expiration.

 

 I am going to buy some of these tomorrow too but doing it as a 670/675 Bull Call Spread

 

 

 

I will have 7x more after the split with a high probability of making the max profit.

 

 

There is also a large 1700 contract straddle on the July 14 630 Puts

 

I am going to Sell a couple of Naked Puts tomorrow too:

 

 

 

 

We are in for some volatility over the next two days as investors jockey for position on a very exciting split event.

 

I plan to do some WW fishing tomorrow on the JunWk1 $550's and hope to get a little pull back tomorrow and then a huge rally all day Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

=======================================================================================================

6/3/14 - I took profits off the table today on my spreads that expire on Friday. I loaded up on some Lotto 625 calls and will take profits if AAPL is not moving higher in the morning, but if it does move higher, then I will hold on into the trading day and sell 75% of them by the end of trading depending on how the stock is moving.

 

On Friday I will buy a few ATM puts to hold into the split.

 

 

 

 

A massive option trade today on the Jul 680 calls:

 

 

 

 

 

=================================================================================================

5/30/14 - Last day of May trading and investors took some profits off the table when AAPL failed to take out $645 three times on the 15min chart. Once that started, the stock took a sharp tumble nearly $16 bucks before settling at the interesting close of $633.  As you should know, I believe there is significance when stocks get pegged to a whole number, especially when its either a Fibonacci number and/or 33. The hard part is how do we determine what that significance is going to be? The only way I know is looking at options activity. After all, I may be a bit clairvoyant, but I do NOT have inside information. So, I did some investigation into option volumes and here is what I came up with.

 

Someone or a large institution or maybe AAPL did a very large future BuyWrite

 

 

The term buy-write is used to describe an investment strategy in which the investor buys stocks and writes call options against the stock position. The writing of the call option provides extra income for an investor who is willing to forgo some upside potential.

 

Calculating it out, somebody spent $316,500,000.00 to potentially make $3,175,000.00 by next Jan 2015 expiration. Now that hardly seems worth it to lay $316 million bucks for a paltry 1% return over the course of 6 months so I am thinking this is most likely AAPL since they have a multi-billion dollar stock buy back in play and was just picking up some pocket change.

 

 

 

Other than that, there was quite a bit of call volume into June at the $650 strike price which is where I think AAPL will split; HOWEVER, Monday is the start of the AAPL WWDC2014 Conference (6/2/2014 - 6/6/2014) and there may be some BIG news released. I still think they will not say anything about the iPhone 6 until after the split; and we NEED them to do it the week of the 9th to give us the best possible odds of turning the Post Split Lotto trade into a massive winner!

 

So far the Calls outpace the puts about 2:1 and IV rankings are pumped up to the extremes, so that makes for big opportunities if you are premium seller. If the conference produces any negative sentiment, there is a whole lot of that pumped up premium that will collapse in minutes, so you may want to put on a couple Bear Call Spreads Monday just in case; however, if the stock pulls back to the 8MA I am a buyer and the 21MA I am an aggressive call buyer.

 

There should be some caution going into next week because Goldman Sachs (GS) UPGRADED AAPL today with a price target of $720?

On Friday morning, analysts at Goldman Sachs led by Bill Shope reiterated their "buy" rating on the stock but upped their price target.
"We are raising our 12-month target price to $720 from $635, " he wrote in a research note

Hmmm, a week before the split?? I my experience, whenever GS chimes in with an upgrade, the stock is about to get whacked!

 

However, there are just millions of investors chomping at the bit to buy AAPL on any a dip, so be ready as the bias is still LONG—I will be buying a few July PUTS next Friday.

 

 

 

 

============================================================================================================

5/29/14 - At the current momentum in AAPL this stock is going to take out $650 before the split so long as no negative news events kill the deal!! I had to pay more for my latest Lotto Trades but they are both already building profits so I will be holding them through the split as an All-or-Nothing play so stick with the plan and lets see what gold mine we potential get post split. If you did not get in yet, just lower your initial contract size and buy a couple, then hope we do get some pull back next week but I really do not think that is going to be the case on this one.

 

 

Congratulations if you have been sticking with my trade ideas over the past 5 weeks as you have profited immensely!!

 

Tomorrow will be another push higher because of all the positive momentum and the "I can't miss out on this one" mentality of investors. I am sure those that did not buy are really pissed off just hoping for a pull back, so expect any pull back do the 8MA to be heavily bought.

 

 

 

 

The monthly chart gives us a clear pictures of where AAPL should top out at my T4 by next Friday before the split on Monday 6/914; and then if we are fortunate and they get added to the DJ30 and announce the iPhone 6 product line, we could have a massively profitable Lotto Trade!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

===============================================================================================================

5/28/14 - The countdown to the split is about to begin. Today AAPL announced the deal with Beats is done and now investors are anticipating the next big announcement, the iPhone 6. I am thinking they will wait until the split is over to make the announcement to really get the stock moving. I am speculating the stock will split under $675.00 so it will be UNDER $100 a share post split. Once that happens, it will almost certainly be inducted into the DJ30 and I expect the big product announcement at or around the same time. Now if that should happen, the stock has a very high probability of rising well over $100 per share and so we stand to make a fantastic profit for a very small risk!!!

 

Here is the LOTTO Trade Idea I am going with tomorrow:

 

Depending on your account size and risk tolerance, you should buy at the minimum 10 contracts of the 690's for June14 and some July14 700's (but fish for a lower price on these). Once the stock splits, you will multiply your contract size by 7 and have a very large position in place. If I am correct in my speculation (depending if they announce the new iPhone) these contracts could easily be $10 or more in the money thereby making profits upwards of $70,000 - $100,000 for $1-2k risk!!

 

Many times a stock will rally into a split and then sell off after, so next Friday I will buy up to 10 puts no further than 5% OTM depending on the pricing just in case things turn for the worse, that way I have a very high probability of getting my money back and/or making a nice profit on the downside.

 

 

 

=============================================================================================================

5/27/14 - To the MOON ALICE! AAPL is working out to be quite the gold mine!$$! I took off half my 635/630's and will let the rest ride.

 

 

 

There is practically ZERO risk of AAPL falling back to $600 per share so you can sell Bull Put Spreads on the JunWk1 600 - 610's and have a VERY HIGH probability of making a good profit!

 

If you want to gamble that AAPL really takes off the rest of this week and into next, then here is a nice Risk/Reward trade:

 

NOTE: this is 100% SPECULATION so you MUST accept a 100% LOSS therefore, ONLY buy what you are willing to loose!

 

 

 

 

=============================================================================================================================

 

5/26/14 - AAPL made a nice pop rally in the final hour of trading Friday making my spreads a good profit!  I was doing some fishing in the morning on 610 calls and made a very nice profit by the end of trading. You/we need to keep fishing every Thur/Fri from now on no further than 5% OTM as there will be continued high volatility going into the upcoming 7:1 split!!

 

 

 

My plan is to take50% of the profits on my 630/635 Bull Call Spread this week. I am anticipating AAPL gaps open tomorrow if there is no negative news, so if the gap does not hold, then I will take the profits and if the stock continues higher I will wait until the end of the day, but I plan on taking 50% off.

 

 

 

 

====================================================================================================================

5/19/14 - Nice rally starting in AAPL. I was filled at better prices on my new trades and my overall gains with all my spreads are doing very well today. I closed out some of the trades locking in profits and will continue to manage the rest from here.

 

 

 

 

AAPL

May Wk4

620

Call

5/19/14

Split

Run

$0.54

$0.42

$0.88

+0.46

+209%

DT

 

==========================================================================================================

5/17/14 - AAPL dips and buyers step in on expiration day driving the stock to a nice higher close. All of my spreads kicked in and the profits are building as AAPL gets ready for the 7:1 split coming in three weeks.

 

 

Looking over my trades after the markets closed, I realized I missed out on some HUGE Lotto trade opportunities. Take a look at these 4 strikes below and you can begin to see what I mean about LOTTO trades. I have seen these types of trades over and over. In fact, I have predicted, posted and many of my subscribers have profited by them on this website over the years. The secret to finding them and making the big bucks is why you subscribe, and I plan on focusing 90% of my trading efforts in finding a lot more of these trades going forward.

 

I know I have many strategies going on, and that is the point, I have TOO MANY, so I am missing out on trades like these below—and these trades are happing every single week! I will devote a lot more time to finding these trades in the future; and I think this will eventually take over all my trading strategies...the profit potential is just too staggering to pass up!

 

 

 

With Friday's nice rebound rally, it's looking like investors have shrugged off this weeks selling and they are looking for the stock with the catalyst to make move, and we know the biggest excitement going is the upcoming 7:1 split! We already have a number of Bull Call Spreads in place and now I plan on focusing on Lotto Trades. What we need is AAPL to make the iPhone 6 release before the split to really get things exploding higher!! I am not so sure it will happen, but I plan on having trades in place if it does. Once AAPL climbs back over $600 on Monday, any shorts will definitely cover and all those hoping for a pull back will also jump on since it never really happened. THERE IS NO REASON FOR AAPL TO GO DOWN.

 

 

 

With AAPL in a full Bull 180, we need to see it take out $600 with good volume this week.

 

 

I am going to do a Bull Call Spread Lotto Play for this week in anticipation AAPL will make the big announcement about the iPhone 6 etc.

 

This is a total lotto speculation play that AAPL can (and has in the past) make a 10+% move in a week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

====================================================================================================================

 

5/12/14 - A nice start today as AAPL moved over $590 and held strong all day. I traded a lot of May 580 calls today and banked some big profits so now I am lowering my BCS for June and will load up on 200 contracts. It's a very high speculation trade because it will take nothing short of a product announcement to get AAPL over  $635 in my opinion but I am still going to gamble on this one. I have my other bullish plays in place so I am on the right track for now.

===========================================================================================================

5/10/14- Well, what happened to the continuation rally? Hmm, investors decided to take their profits when AAPL closed over $600 that took over 18 months to get back there, but I am still very bullish and looking for this stock to really take off, and it can get back over $600, the bulls will be stepping on the gas. There will be a split run coming and I am going to be there to catch some BIG PROFITS!

 

Ok, so the strategy is to speculate the stock will get over $600 but more importantly, what target price can we estimate AAPL will hit before the split? If there is no more news coming out before the split, then one can expect around a 5% move, bit it they announce the new iPhone and other products, and those products a perceived a game changer again, then you will see this stock move over 10% very quickly if not the day of the release. Now that the dividend has been paid, I am looking for AAPL to make moves higher next week with a positive market. Earnings season is pretty much over so the big money will need a catalyst to invest into and top of the list is the upcoming 7:1 stock split. My plan is to do some more OTM Bull Call Spreads now that I have a nice $20k profit from the 595/600 locked in, I can add some more contracts to the next one.

 

I will add some more to the 615/610 and speculate with 200 contracts of the JunWk1 640/645 which means I will spend (debit) $4,400 for a shot at making up to $95,000. Now if the stock makes some big moves early in the next couple of weeks, I will be able to capture at least 25% of this potential and that is what I am aiming for initially.  I know that 645 is going to be a big stretch for AAPL but if we get the product announcement I have been on the hunt for the past 6 weeks, then I stand to make some really nice profits again! If you tolerance to risk is not as high as mine, stick with the 615/610's as that is a very likely target for AAPL to trade over by the split date.

 

NOTE: If AAPL trades lower on Monday, then I will adjust my strike down because I do not want to be further than 10% OTM.

 

 

 

 

 

================================================================================================================

5/5/14- Here we gooooooooooo....AAPL closed over $600 today and the momentum is picking up. The big question is will it hold ground higher ground from here, maybe even make it to $640 or higher? We will see, but I am sure liking the current picks so far!! As long as AAPL holds above $600 I will continue to remain long and look for opportunities to add some more positions on any dips.

 

 

 

 

 

 

======================================================================================================

 

5/4/14- Looking for AAPL to continue on to higher prices and any dips down to $580 or higher should be bought.

 

 

===========================================================================================================================

4/30/14- Closed out my Jun 14 600/595 BCS for a 50% $20k profit!!!!!!! I am looking for AAPL to make a run over $600 but most likely not going to happen this week as I am sure the MM's do not want to pay off all those 600 calls, Butterflies and spreads pegging $600.00. I still have my other trades on and will ads some more contracts if AAPL pulls back some more.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

===============================================================================================================

4/27/14- What we are looking for is the Golden Apple Trades, and markets willing, we are going to get a lot of them over the next two months!! With a 7:1 stock split on deck effective 6/9/14, and an 8% rise in their dividend, we should definitely see some continued buying pressure on this stock; however, the upside will most likely be controlled unless they make the much anticipated new iPhone 6 debut. What we need to see is APPL make a nice move over my SGB zone this week and we are off to the races for T4 by the split. Once the news hit, everyone of the "guru's" on CN-BLAH-C were doing their usual rubber chicken neck dance and clamoring to be first in line to claim victory...lol...but we know most of them are complete IDIOTS and just have no clue unless the teleprompter tells them what to say. Of course, you know the donFranko is always way ahead of the curve most of the time, so just keep on following, learning and making PROFITS with me!!

 

The way I am going to play this stock into the split is with deep ITM credit/debit spreads where you have defined risk and big rewards as this stock rises. Or course we need to also have a couple of puts in play because the world is a crazy place these days, and even though AAPL has massive upside potential, it can and always will be subject to emotional swings of investors.

 

What the billion dollar hedge funds will be looking for is what ideas can Tim Cook bring to the table for the future direction and growth of AAPL. Will he have the same innovation and imagination of the former CEO Steve Jobs?  So far, what the talking heads are now touting is that AAPL is about to become a dinosaur NON growth stock with this split. They are saying that AAPL will most likely be inducted into the Dow Jones 30 once it trades under $100 based on market cap. When this happens, AAPL will trade like their previous predecessors and become a dividend collecting ATM machine for them with predictable moves and sustained profits due to their massive size and market cap.

 

Because their patriarch (Steve Jobs) is no longer on the planet; it's perceived the new CEO and management lack the insight and intuitive imagination to bring society changing products to the world and it's widely disseminated that it's going to be a very hard act to follow Steve Job's. But remember, Steve could have very well (and most likely did) archived a lot of product plans and ideas that will carry this company for many decades to come. Just because he is no longer living does not mean he is dead...his brilliance and innovation can continue to live on and the products he must of had written down can be "cooked up" (pun intended) when he passed the baton onto the current CEO.

 

Do not count this company out, just be ready to make continued profits for years to come; and when they do become a dinosaur stock in the DJ30; we will always be able make money selling premium spreads, iron condor's and collect dividends if you own shares!

 

 

So far my Jun 14 600/595 Debit spread has a nice credit of $1.27 for a profit so far of $9,950. My plan is to sell that tomorrow if AAPL is not on the rise and then use those profits to buy more JuneWk1 debit spreads.

 

 

 

Ok, so here is a trade idea you can do to make some nice gains with defined risk. Depending on your account size and option trading level approval, you can either do these trades as a debit or credit spread. Most of you will have to do the debit but, that is actually a better way to go if you are doing large contract size because the max loss is lower even though the odds of getting assigned are VERY low at this time.

My max upside target is T4 at $650, but I would not buy/sell a spread any higher than $630 because you want the best possible odds that AAPL will trade ABOVE your spread to assure you take in the full credit value.

If AAPL rises steadily, it will be hard to make profits on calls because the IV will be too pumped up so here is a trade idea to consider with a fixed amount of loss:

A DEEP OUT-OF-THE-MONEY (DOTM) BULL CALL DEBIT SPREAD

This is where you buy a deep out-of-the-money call spread and spend a defined amount of money for a fixed amount of profit. I am showing you 100 contracts because the risk/reward to do this many is well worth it to me. If you do not have the ability to do that many, just do what you can afford to lose because there are NO guarantees AAPL will continue to climb higher, and in order for this to work, it MUST close above your spread to make max profits.

Now if AAPL does make larger moves higher in a short period of time, the implied volatility will increase the value of the spread and create profits sooner, but if you want to just go for the max profit, then buy/sell the spread and hold on for the ride.

DEBIT Bull Call Spread

The goal here is for AAPL to close at or above $630 by expiration. Since the split date is 6/9/14, we want to do the JunWk1 because that is the best possible expiration date that investors will have to be in the stock to get the 7:1 split.

You can also do lower strike prices and collect less premium too, that way you increase your odds of making a profit if the stock does not rise enough to make this DOTM spread pay off.

Here are examples of lower strikes with approximately the same max loss:

Going forward, investors will definitely be looking for bargains, and any dips less than 5% will most likely be heavily bought, so I will be trading weekly options on any dips to help me make money to finance my spreads. There will be no doubt implied volatility will be pumped so I highly recommend you fish for lower entry prices at least 34 - 55% below the current BID of the options you want to buy and let the stock come to you.

If you have the account size and option level approval, you can sell some Naked Puts to also finance this. It is going to be pretty hard for AAPL to go down over the next 8 weeks, but it can happen, so be sure you want to own the shares at any strike you sell.

NAKED PUT

Continued Profits UP!

 

===========================================================================================================

4/25/14- Plant some AAPL seeds and grow an orchard of money trees! The batch of AAPL trades made us a ton of profits this week, and if things continue to rise, we will just keep right on plucking more and more golden apples off the money tree!!!

 

Here were the winning trades, congratulations if you were able to take advantage of some or all of them!!

 

 

Symbol

Month

Strike

Type

Date

Strategy

Qty

Entry

Exit

P/L

ROI%

Day

Held

AAPL

APR Wk4

505

Put

4/11/14

Earnings

Miss

Speculation

5

$4.50

0

-4.50

(100%)

13

AAPL

APR Wk4

555

Call

4/22/14

Earnings

Beat

50

$1.21

$16.50

+15.29

+1363

3

AAPL

APR Wk4

555

Call

4/22/14

Earnings

Beat

50

$1.80

$16.50

+14.70

+916%

3

AAPL

APR Wk4

540

535

Bull

Put

Spread

4/11/14

iPhone 6

Speculation

10

$3.32

Credit

0

+3.32

100%

4

AAPL

APR Wk4

550

545

Bull

Call

Spread

4/15/14

iPhone 6

Speculation

10

$1.00

Debit

5.00

+4.00

100%

4

AAPL

APR Wk4

567.5

570

Bull

Call

Spread

4/15/14

iPhone 6

Speculation

50

$0.10

Debit

+2.70

Credit

+2.60

100%

4

AAPL

Apr 14

560

Call

4/4/14

iPhone 6

Speculation

15

.52

12.00

+11.48

2307%

10

AAPL

Apr Wk 4

570

Call

4/11/14

iPhone 6

Speculation

20

$0.85

2.50

+1.65

294%

13

AAPL

APR Wk4

550

545

Bull

Call

Spread

4/14/14

iPhone 6

Speculation

10

$1.00

Debit

0

+5.00

100%

10

================================================================================================================

 

4/23/14- BAM what we have been looking for!  The big beat and 7:1 split WOW stock launched $40 higher in after hours and looking like it will go even higher...hope so!!

 

Ok, so the game plan is to take profits off the table and let some ride into Friday. If we end up getting a profit taking dip, look for $555 to be the bottom and buy, buy, buy!! Sell credit spreads and HOLD ON!!

 

My after hours charts are suggesting AAPL will open up tomorrow over $600 but won't know until we see the pre market and opening.

 

 

 

If you are on any of my trade ideas, congratulations and I hope we get the BIG REWARD tomorrow !!

 

Profits Up!

 

donFranko

 

 

 

===========================================================================================================

4/23/14- BIG day tomorrow for AAPL. Expected Market Maker Move is +/- $18.50 so not much enthusiasm expected which is EXACTLY what we want to see because that keeps option volatility lower and if they beat and surprise, here we gooooooooo. I have some longer term Bear and Bull call spreads on with emphasis on bullish speculation with fixed loss and huge reward if I am right about AAPL hitting $600 and beyond. I am hedged with puts in case disaster strikes so let the apple chips fall where they may. The charts are suggesting we get the explosive move and $555 is the likely target on ok earnings but dang it! I want them to blow the doors off and take this stock to $600 on Thursday/Friday.

 

 

===========================================================================================================

4/20/14- Lets get ready to  rrrrrrumble! This week AAPL announces earnings and hopefully a new multi-billion buy back and product release! This stock is poised to make a big move and of course, I have been diligently working the long side in anticipation of a massive move; however, I have been way too early in my speculations and that has cost me a lot of trading bullets. I did manage to make some profits along the way to lessen the pain, but I really need a big move to get this snowball rolling! I am into several positions but I will be adding a couple more on Wed before the close. Currently the MMM move is a paltry +/1 $19.86, but I am sure that number will adjust as volatility picks up this week. One good thing about the low number is expectations are low, so if AAPL blows the doors off, we will see a much larger move. Another notable thing is AAPL did bounce off the 200MA last week and rallied on Thursday, so it is looking promising investors are ready to step on the upside gas. This stock is going to make the move, but it may take longer than usual so I plan on buying a longer term straddle/strangle tomorrow to get things rolling. I will go with the calls first if AAPL is up in the morning and add the puts at earnings. If AAPL sells off in the morning, I will still buy the calls at a discount.

 

 

 

 

=======================================================================================================

4/15/14- Testing the 200MA today and a nice bounce with a close back over my T2 line. If we get good numbers from GOOG tomorrow, that should spark a rally in AAPL but with the close still under the SGB from Feb. this stock is vulnerable to continued selling down to T1. I was way too early in my speculation plays on the new iPhone release so it's been a very expensive trip to date, but when they do announce I will be there to catch a nice payday!

 

 

 

 

 

I added another DOTM Bull Call Spread since the risk/reward is very good. It is a total long shot, but if AAPL does make the big move, I will capture a lot of that max profit premium for a very small capital risk.

 

 

 

 

========================================================================================================================

 

4/12/14- AAPL longs are not looking too good right now, but with Friday's DOJI close we are definitely in for a measured move very soon; and with the markets continuing to sell off, the 200MA on the daily chart is the likely target before bargain hunting buyers step in with any aggression. These are the times you take a long shot because if this stock pulls the rabbit out of it's hat, we will see a huge rally! As for downside moves, I think AAPL will just slip lower with market sentiment, so I plan on adding more Calls 10% OTM on any moves lower this week and I will definitely have puts in place before earnings. The big question now is will AAPL reach $600 if they surprise on earnings? At current price levels that would need to be about a 16% move higher from here. Now that is a tall order for any stock, but we have seen these high beta stocks move over 20% so get ready. I have 590 calls based on that massive contract buy I discovered a few weeks back (see below) but not that is looking more like a deep ITM covered call play.

 

 

 

 

 

Ok, so looking at options volume and open interest I saw this massive straddle trade on Friday:

 

 

This is a HUGE $6 MILLION DOLLAR BET that was placed today on AAPL

 

 

 

 

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4/10/14 - PAIN is what I am feeling for the week...arrgghhhh! I wanted so much for AAPL to save my ass with a big announcement for a couple of weeks now, but NOPE NADA Stupido!

 

Ok, I am way too early on this one so when you are down and feeling like the market is kicking you in the teeth, you just have to raise your arms and DEFEND then ATTACK! With earnings coming in two weeks, and this market wide selling event going on, I think it's going to be the final cleanout of all the shorts bank accounts and once they are all on board, they will be squeezed so hard they will not come back for years...NOT!

 

With a stock like AAPL about to release a major product announcement, we just cannot get too aggressive on either side so, I am still selling my deep ITM Bull Put Spreads to keep my losses minimized until the upside comes giving me a nice profit.

 

Just remember to never over sell greater than 40% of your buying power so you have room to add contracts when things do not go your way immediately as we are experiencing right now. When I sell the next set of BPS's I will add a couple more contracts to pay me back on the draw downs I have to take for this week.

 

Even though the markets are getting crushed right now, AAPL is actually holding up pretty well, all things considered. Now if we continue to slide tomorrow and into early next week, I am expecting AAPL to test the 200MA and/or the SGB zone on the daily chart, so there is where I plan to sell some more BPS positions.

 

I plan on adding some AprWk 4 505 puts tomorrow just in case the selling gets really ban and/or AAPL disappoints at earnings.

 

 

 

 

===================================================================================================================

4/6/14 - Markets cycling down and dragging AAPL with it, but any good news and we are off to the races big time! I am sticking with my plays and I added some puts too.

 

 

 

===========================================================================================================

3/30/14 -  Is AAPL stuck in the mud or ready to explode like a raging volcano? I have been expecting the news release for the past three weeks and although it is pending, that could very well take another month or longer. There is talk beginning on the iPhone 6 but so far, it's looking like a September release. The past couple of weeks trading have been decent but met with selling at every turn higher. This does not appear to bode well and if the new iPhone is a bust, well, this stock is most likely going to bet busted permanently. The week of trading ended in a Tombstone SGB Doji and that means AAPL is ready for a large move. Earnings season kicks of tomorrow and AAPL is scheduled to release on 4/21/14. All I hear lately is AAPL is a value play vs. growth play so that means no more BIG moves without product that release that revolutionizes the perception of the entire world. I have begun to add puts in my mix but I am still a Bull in my bias for now.

 

Looking over the charts, I see AAPL has now fully retraced the last quarters devastation ending with a proverbial SGB which happens to also be a Tombstone Doji so expect some moves this week.

 

 

 

 

 

===============================================================================================

3/23/14 - Another week ahead and we fish for the big announcement in the hopes that AAPL will not disappoint and explode higher! I do not know if they will announce this week but I will just keep dong my hedged / financed speculation until they do!  Earnings are coming up in APRIL and the next dividend in May so there should be plenty of buy interest to support current price levels give or take up to $10.00. Of course we cannot predict the future impact of the markets, war, news upsets, and/or Shit hitting the fan, but that is the cost of doing business as speculators!

 

Here are my NEW trades in place for tomorrow:

 

 

I am going to buy some more long OTM 570 Calls and sell a Bull Put Spread to help finance it. Then I am picking up some OTM puts just in case the stock gets whacked to $500 or lower to pay back my BPS losses. If the stock hits $600 as this mega contracts below suggest, I/we make BANK!

 

My cost on the 100 contracts will be $1,500.00

My BPS will pay me back $1,920.00

My protection puts cost $410.00

 

My max risk on this should AAPL close below 520 by April expiration would be: ($4,990.00) however, if AAPL falls to $500 this week, I make up to $5,000 and if I am fortunate enough for AAPL to hit $600 this week, I stand to make $300,000.00 on the long calls plus the $1,920 credit on the BPS.

 

I will continue to do this trade until the product release adding more contracts on the Lotto Calls and Hedge Puts until I make a fortune or make my money back plus some on the puts side.

 

 

 

 

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BIG MULTI-MILLION BET BEING PLACED ON AAPL April 14 Calls

 

3/20/14 - We are having a lousy week in AAPL but there is still tomorrow! I do not expect any stock shattering news to be released and with this being March expiration, I am sure there will be plenty of pressure on the stock to not move higher that much; however, I am hopeful we can still have an upside surprise. I have kept on building positions into the future and I see that somebody out there bought a staggering 9,500 October calls. Now that could very well be a covered call and most likely not a Naked Call so we have to try and figure out what this type of trade could be since there was no condition info provided. There is no doubt AAPL will release new products, and with the stock getting beat down, pushed around and lacking direction, they better deliver in a Steve Jobs way or this stock is O.V.E.R. I am definitely bullish and will continue to build positions weekly up to the $590 strike price and when this stock does hit $600 or greater, I will cash in...BIG TIME! Tomorrow should be an interesting day as investors position for the April options cycle so get ready because earnings season is about to kick off!

 

 

 

===========================================================================================================================

 

 

3/18/14 - There is some ramblings in the markets on upcoming product releases with AAPL and we are getting close to the explosive trade. I am hoping it happens this week, but most likely that will not be the case. I am still investing in call options up to the $590's and today there was a massive multi-million dollar bet placed on the APR 590 Calls. TOS says it was a spread so if that is the case, then that institution sold the APR 590 Puts and Bought the $590 calls. At least that is how I am viewing it. The math says, if this stock gets over $590 by expiration, they stand to take in a whopping $30,500,000.00 and the calls could be worth multi-millions more!

 

 

So, my plan is to continue to sell Bull Put Spreads to finance my OTM calls until we get that massive rise higher in AAPL and CASH IN!

 

 

 

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3/16/14 - A week of profit taking has dragged AAPL down killing a lot of my trade action this week, but I am in the process of fishing for a White Whale so I just keep on laying my nets and in the near future we WILL catch a big one! When they do make the announcement on the next iPhone the reaction will be a big one. we have to hope it's well received and investors hit the buy button with massive enthusiasm taking AAPL right to $600 or higher! I will keep buying DOTM strikes up to $600 and if AAPL holds $520 this week, I will also start selling some Bull Put Spreads to continue to finance my calls plays. I will also start to add a few puts above the 200 MA because investors will dump this beloved stock if the new products are perceived to be less than expected now that the visionary of the company is no longer with us. But you have to be thinking, Steve Jobs had a lot more on his plate than time of life gave him the opportunity to deliver. Typically, great visionaries leave a legacy of ideas that reach well beyond their time. The question is, can current management implement those potential plans Jobs had for the future.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3/11/14 - The ramblings have begun on CN-Blah-C and that sparked AAPL which also had an upgrade today. I jumped on some DOTM calls in anticipation they will announce the new iPhone 6 and if its a success, AAPL is more than capable of taking out $600 in a day or two. What we need is additional products or streaming business news at the same time to really get this stock blasting off. Earnings season for AAPL is a little over one month away and with new products on the horizon and a massive stock buy back I know any dips will be bought until the news is released and then BAM or SLAM this stock is going to make some moves!

 

 

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3/9/14 - No big news yet, but the anticipation of something coming will just keep building and if they do not impress, look out below. I am still bullish on AAPL and will continue with bullish trades. I know if this stock surprises and/or impresses investors it's a 100% lock AAPL will take out $555 so that is where I am fishing for my Lotto plays.

 

 

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3/2/14 - What a bummer for month end and the potential for Lotto Trade greatness!  AAPL did not have any big announcements (yet) on new products or business plans, but they are definitely going to announce something in the coming weeks or months; maybe even this week. If they keep stalling, investors will lose interest and move money elsewhere until there is solid new released. I am still going to fish for OTM calls on AAPL and OTM puts on NFLX in anticipation there will be a very big move in both stocks. My plan is to keep buying weekly $550 to $555 calls and will sell some Bull Put Spreads to finance it since my bias is bullish.

 

 

 

 

 

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2/27/14 - Filled on my order's today and got some good pricing.

 

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2/26/14 - AAPL is having a conference this Friday and could very well announce some big news like they will enter into the streaming business and buy up a company. Could that be say, HULU or maybe NFLX? Well, if that announcement comes, you can bet your bottom dollar AAPL will explode right on by $555.00 and if it's not NFLX that stock will get CRUSHED.

 

NOTE: DO NOT BET THE HOUSE ON THIS...THERE WILL ALWAYS BE MORE IN THE FUTURE...but the risk reward is good enough to get in the game!

 

 

 

 

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2/9/14 - AAPL gapped up nicely but failed to make new highs all day leaving us with a very nice SGB short signal. With the markets looking like they will shake off this recent drop. it would be expected that AAPL will also rebound an move on up. After all, they are making money, have products everyone wants and a massive buy back still in play. The trend to buy long is still on, but until AAPL takes out the 89MA out the daily chart, I am not an aggressive player. . I am going to fish for some Lotto puts and if AAPL does close under Friday's SGB, I will be looking for a test of $500. A move higher and close over Friday's high, and I will be looking for AAPL to head back to $555 in the coming weeks, but I really think that will take a very strong news release to get the ball rolling.

 

 

 

 

No fills on my WW trades.

 

AAPL

FebWk1

502.50

Put

2/6/14

WW

Fishing

50

$0.20

or better

-

-

NO

Fill

-

 

2/5/14 - No fills on my fishing orders. Trades are cancelled.

 

I am going to fish for some WW puts on AAPL. I think this stock is getting pumped up this week and may get dropped on profit taking if the markets fail on Friday so I am going to see if I can get a low ball fill.

 

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2/2/14 - AAPL closed just over $500 again and that shows there is some big buyers out there (AAPL being most likely the biggest) keeping the stock from slipping. If the markets are strong this week, AAPL should make an initial move over $500, but any  moves lower will be met with more buying so fishing for entry points 55% or lower is the best way to make some good money as AAPL keeps doing what AAPL does, but be sure to take notice of the 200MA and SGB on the daily chart. These MUST hold ground to scare off the Bears.

 

I am going fishing for some Lotto Weekly and a Swing trade on the 500 strike.

 

 

AAPL

FebWk1

510

Calls

2/3/14

Post earnings

rally

10

$0.50

or better

NO

FILL

-

-

-

AAPL

Feb 14

500

Calls

2/3/14

Post earnings

rally

5

$4.50

or better

NO

FILL

-

-

-

AAPL

Feb 14

500/495

Bull

Put

Spread

2/3/14

Earnings crush rebound

5

$2.00

credit

or better

NO

FILL

-

-

-

 

 

My Lotto calls and puts were busted this round.

 

 

 

My WW 515 calls was filled but did not make any profits. I was holding out for that short covering rebound, but it just did not happen this time around. I did not do the Bear Call Spread and cancelled the orders. I am still looking to do the Bull Put Spread if AAPL opens strong this week.

 

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1/30/14 - AAPL closed just under $500 today but that was not enough to get me to start my Bear Call or Bull Put spreads. GOOG news did not budge AAPL in after hours so we may have a nice WW trade setup tomorrow. If the markets rally or get dumped on the last trading day for Jan 2014, I am anticipating AAPL will make a move so I am fishing for some $0.10 cent options at the open.

 

 

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1/29/14 - Can't find enough big money investors to keep a rebound going. Carl Icahn tweeted he bought $500 million more and that could not get the party going so now we are back to $500 but if it holds tomorrow, I expect a rally; however, it will need to be supported by a market wide rally too. Until they come out with the next round of products, this stock is becoming passé very quickly with investors. Just be aware that they still make awesome products that everyone wants, then have a multi-billion buy back in play, they have bazillions in cash and they have new products coming (or so we hope) to keep investors interested and looking for perceived bargain entry points on the way down. So, buy puts with the idea of short term profits and accumulate some OTM calls because when that time comes, AAPL will go on a very fast spike up and multi-day run higher. If the stock does drop under $500, there will be some buyers at the 200MA on the daily around $485 so I will take a shot at some calls if we get there—maybe it will happen Friday morning setting us up for a white whale trade opportunity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1/27/14 - AAPL beats estimates on top and bottom but they miss revenue and guide lower. That is the one-two-punch that kills every stock...even Apple. There was no new products announced this round and so the stock was whacked $50.00 in after hours until settling down $44.46. Will there be any hope for the stock going forward? The answer is YES, most people will see this as yet another buying opportunity because they want to see and hear about new products. Plus there is still the Carl Icahn effect and the buy back programs that will no doubt kick in and that is why AAPL held ground and bounced off $500.

 

If this stock can hold that price point tomorrow, there will be a huge rally and I have seen that happen many times before with AAPL. What we want is a nice pre market drop the continues in the first 5 minutes of trading giving us a cherry pick White Whale trade setup. Then we want AAPL to catch a bid and off to the races we go.

 

The plan for me is to fish for $530 and $550 Weekly calls and if it can hold over $500 after the first 15 minutes then I will sell some Bull Put Spreads.

 

I am not willing to take large put position as long as AAPL can hold above $500 this week. Under $500 and the next major support is at $480 then $440.

 

 

 

My calls are going to be all but dead and the puts may have some profits at the open so if AAPL dips under $500 in pre market I will take proifts at the open if I have any on the puts and then buy in again if AAPL fails it again or opens higher and fails to hold.

 

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1/26/14 - Monday is the big day and AAPL investors are looking for a reason to buy this stock. If you recall, Carl Icahn said this stock was the "bargain of the century" and if he is right, AAPL is and will be a $1,000 stock in the future. If GOOG and PCLN can get there, why couldn't AAPL, AMZN and CMG get there some day too? The driving factor for AAPL's price is and always will be the revenue they generate. This company is has power, cash and products that infect the minds of it's customers and all they have to do is keep on innovating with new and usable products and nothing but good things can happen. There will no doubt be the bumpy rides from quarter to quarter until AAPL can find new territory beyond $700, so, we as traders must work with what the stock can give us and make money along the way up or down.

 

Ok, so what are the charts telling us? For me, its yelling loudly this stock is poised to get crushed, and if they miss earnings, that is what will happen. The first line of defense for the bulls will be at the weekly 89MA and 21MA at $520—which happens to be converging—and if AAPL fails these MA's, it's going to get ugly; and ugly is over $100 away at the 200MA. I do not see this stock getting busted down $100 the next day even if they miss the estimates, but it can take a pretty strong hit and then fall off all week especially if the overall markets continue to slide and panic sets in. So what if they beat? Expect at least at 5% move; and if they surprise, we could very well see a move like we got with NFLX.

 

 

 

 

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1/22/14 - No fills on the JanWk 5 calls and so I will adjust for next week ahead of earnings. With the explosion in NFLX tonight, AAPL barely moved in after hours but I am expecting a really good move off earnings similar to NFLX. With today's trading ending is basically a long wicked DOJI, there is some definite positioning going on with investor sentiment. There is a lot more call contracts in play so if they miss, the stock is going to get whacked and there is not any major support so I expect AAPL to fall to the 200 pretty quickly. Now if they kill earnings again like NFLX has, and the stock can blow by the SGB on the daily and weekly chart ($570) then it's on for AAPL to attempt to retake it glory back in 2014. Either way, there is definitely going to be some exciting trading opportunities coming up!

 

 

 

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1/19/14 - The 555 calls were stopped out at an average 20% profit. Apple was dumped on Friday when my T3 line was lost. We are not back to T1 ahead of earnings and it's not looking too good right now for the bulls after the beating the stock took on Friday. That was a clear cut "sell the news" event on expiration Friday. If you were fishing for some WW puts then you had the opportunit to make some big bucks! Earnings are confirmed for the 27th and if they beat, we should get a nice rally going; however, if they miss then be prepared for $500 to be tested again. With Monday being a holiday, we will have to wait and see what investors will do after they digest Friday's move over the extended weekend. The Bull 180 was a complete success and now we are getting a second chance to get in off a T1 touch but use caution. It would be better to fish later in the week and hope we can catch a good entry point on some Calls and then buy some Puts the day of earnings. On the call side, I would not go any further OTM than $555 for next week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1/14/14 - The run has begun and if you started your calls plays yesterday then you are very pleased with the results so far!

 

We now have a strong Level 2 Bull 180 in play with T2 being reached today. I am expecting AAPL to hit T3 this week as long as the news and markets remain positive.

 

No fill on the 530 Strangle I had the wrong month posted. The 555 calls are coming back to life though.

 

 

 

 

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1/12/14 - More and more selling all week for the big AAPL must have bullish players really scared right about now. That SGB on the weekly chart was definitely the signal to get aggressively short this time around. I was looking for $545-555 to be the aggressive buy since earnings are coming, but I was a little early to the game and now I am feeling some of the bulls pain right now.

 

It's difficult to find the tops and bottoms when the daily action is happening; and it's always easy to see what you should have been doing after the picture is in place. This is why it's critical to trade with discipline and money management so you can stay in the game long enough to catch the ride to profits when you are early to the expected move you are attempting to catch. Of course, new releases always make or break your plans so always keep some trading powder dry and fish for lower entry prices when you decide to pull the trigger.

 

The best way I know to make good trade entry decisions is using the Fibonacci numbers 8, 13, and 21 along with the 8MA, 21MA, 89MA and 200MA. Now these are not set in stone, but using these indicators vs. reacting to emotional whims and pre-conceived ideas or news stories and pundits on TV is a much better way to trade.  At the very least, you have a plan and a methodical way to make better trading decisions; plus, you have a way to maneuver around unexpected news events that can and will wipe out even the best laid plans.

 

Ok, so with that in mind, we look for Fib patterns of movement to give us reasons to trade. These Fib patterns work on all time frames, but the shorter time you pick, the more volatility and risk you have to endure when things do not go exactly as planned. I also like to use SGB's, gaps and clear candlestick topping or bottoming tail patterns to start my Fib count down.

 

What we have going on in the charts right now is a perfect example of what I am talking about with SGB's and Fibonacci sequence counts.

 

 Lets look at the daily chart first.

 

 

Now we look into the Weekly chart:

 

 

 

This week is now the third week and we just competed the 13th day from the last gap, so AAPL is ready to make the next measured move, and with earnings coming out on the 27th, I will be looking for AAPL to find support at the 89MA this week; however, we need a positive news story to really get things going and a negative one can drop the stock to the last SGB zone.

 

My trading plan this week is to put on a Feb14 Strangle to start. AAPL is more than capable of moving 10% or more by earnings, and if earnings are boon or bust, it will make potentially a bigger move so as we get the ball rolling I plan on going 8% OTM to start. Then I will be adjusting some more positions as the week begins and the news stories start to flow. I am confidnet there will some upgrades and downgrades on AAPL as we get closer to the big day.

 

We are currently in a failing Level 2 B180, but I am looking for AAPL to find some support this week and so my T-Targets are in play.

 

 

 

 

Profits Up!

The donFranko

 

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1/6/14 - Tough week for the bulls on AAPL, but if you were a bear ( I was unfortunately not one this week) then you made a very nice profit. Investors took down the big AAPL in the first trading week of 2014, and to me, that is an opportunity. We have earnings coming up on the 21st and I fully expect investors to stat covering their short positions in anticipation of a surprise. I have said in the past that if AAPL does not make the grade this quarter, this stock is most likely going to be a dog of the Dow for 2014.

 

My call plays were all filled Friday, but at much lower prices than I originally posted. When I post suggested entry points, be sure to practice sound money management and good common sense. If the markets are not supporting the direction we are playing, then sit it out or lower your entry targets and/or strikes—I stuck to my initial strikes but lowered my entry points. That might be a good thing or a bad one depending on next weeks action; however, AAPL has a lot of ground to recover and my weekly options may not make it.

 

This week is the beginning stages of an earnings run and AAPL will no doubt find some buyers as we get closer. Of course there is always the chance of negative news so we need to keep that in mind when we pick our spots. When I start looking for entry points, I like to dig into longer time frame charts and the monthly chart has AAPL right in the crosshairs of a large potential large move up or down and since the devastating fall from investor grace in 2012 when AAPL fell for 5 solid months before making sideways moves for another 5 months and finally finding its bottom and has now risen back up to just over 55% of that devastating drop. Typically, if a stock retraces 55% of a massive sell off, there will be some profit taking; and that is exactly what happened into the end of last week. I do not expect AAPL to rise much higher than $555-560 ahead of earnings without some surprise news announcement. There is also a very strong SGB on both the daily and weekly charts that will be the stopping point for the big money.

 

 

 

 

 

========================================================================================

1/1/14 - Will AAPL once again be the darling stock in 2014 or the DOG? That depends on the next round of earnings and if they do not have some very attractive product offerings this year, then investors will become apathetic and the "been there, done that" will start to sink in and sink the stock with it. The last day of 2013 trading gave us some hope that AAPL can indeed find itself again with the hearts of investors, but it MUST get back over the SGB from 12/5/13. Any dip this week and I think $545-550 is an aggressive buy. If we get a gap up tomorrow, then we watn to see AAPL stay above $555 to maintain a strong bullish bias. Earnings season will be kicking off soon and AAPL is definitely going to make us some money so get ready!!

 

 

 

 

 

===========================================================================================================

12/25/13 - Nice gap up from the China Mobile news but AAPL fell short of my SGB short signal and could not put on a continuation the next day. Now that the news is played out, I am expecting the stock to hold ground the rest of the year if it can stay above my T1 line. Should AAPL gap over the SGB on  Thursday, then we could see some big moves higher the rest of the week. So far the weekly chart has the stock in a perfect DOJI with a the last three weeks having large topping tails. This is viewed as bearish so if the stock manages a move back over $575 then short will cover and we are off to the races.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

===========================================================================================================

22/22/13 - AAPL announced over the weekend they will start selling in China. That should make the stock really take off this week now that it is official.

 

Apple has reached a long-awaited deal to bring iPhone to China Mobile, world's biggest phone carrier.

The companies announced a multi-year deal, to begin selling the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c in China on Jan. 17.

 

This news should have AAPL blasting off on Monday and the first target is the SGB zone which will most likely be taken out this week. I plan on selling some Bull Put Spreads and buying some more Jan Wk 1 calls.

 

 

 

 

=====================================================================================================

 

12/18/13 - Big selling pressure ahead of the FOMC release that was quickly erased after the news. This type of candle is indicative of higher prices and is known to be a hammer doji. Since AAPL did close back over the 21ma on the daily chart and a clear touch on the 8ma on a weekly chart, you can bet with strong conviction that AAPL will make a race back up to that SGB by the end of December trading. If you go with this long bias, then keep your stop in play at today's low but any options you buy, consider that money spent and hold on for the potential into next week. The best case scenario is to buy the open with a smaller position and fish for the rest 34% below the open bid price. 

 

 

 

 

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12/7/13 - The AAPL rally was killed by negative comments about the China Mobile deal being "priced in" to the stock. What resulted was a huge SGB on Thursday that resulted in a bearish reversal of the stock on Friday. The weekly chart is showing a classic tombstone/gravestone DOJI pattern that will make the bears mouth water. Remember, we are in the season of AAPL and they also have a multi-billion buy back in play plus activist investor Carl Icahn working the news wires etc. Any dips on AAPL will be viewed as buy opportunities until the next earnings report so do not get aggressive on shorts as this pattern is widely known and will be used against investors. There is nothing more profitable in a short time frame than a short squeeze, so I am looking for long opportunities on AAPL this week if the SGB zone between $546 and $555 holds. I calculate major support at $529.08, but I do not think AAPL will get anywhere close to that without some devastating news.

 

I was stopped out of my Feb calls so I am looking for my next entry points on AAPL this week with a pull back to the SGB zone around $555.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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12/3/13 - I picked up some OTM calls on the morning dip and will be looking for some upside action the rest of the week. The stock took out my T1 and if that holds then AAPL should be good to go with upside price targets on the monthly chart are at $600. Of course, if the overall markets take a turn for the worse, AAPL could easily reverse course so I will be keeping my eye on yesterdays red candle as my pivot point. now that AAPL has closed over that SGB way back in Jan 2013.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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12/1/13 - I am going to start my fishing expedition this week on OTM AAPL calls because the Black Friday sales are being reported as the highest ever for several companies. Ideally we would like to see AAPL do a little profit taking tomorrow so we can get on board with a much better price.

 

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11/30/13 - Awesome week of profits in AAPL! If you were paying attention to the moves, then you should have made some nice gains. I sold my 530's way too early, but my DecWk1 made up for it...cha CHING! I sold 90% of my calls and will reload on Monday if AAPL give me a pull back. If not, I plan on selling some Bull Put Spreads.

 

Ok, so Black Friday sales are being reported as the best EVER by retailers, so that means AAPL is poised to really take off next week. I expected the stock to hit my T3 target last week but it fell just short of that; however, it did go right to $555 as I predicted it would. Next week will be pivotal for the rest of the year, so we need to be ready to get on the money train that AAPL can become and start off 2014 with huge profits!

 

I amexpecting a gap open on Cyber Monday but if investors decide to hit the profit taking button, then we want to look for long entry points at the 8MA on the daily chart. I plan on putting in several fishing orders every Monday going forward because I want to never miss another huge move like we had this week.

 

Take a look at these charts to see what I mean:

 

 

These are the types of trades I love to find for us, but dang it! I sure wish I had more strikes in place this week. As you can see, all four of these made massive profits so that is how we need to start fishing going forward. My plan is to start buying weekly options for $0.25 - $0.10 cents $20 - $30 OTM.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11/26/13 - Just when I thought AAPL would be quiet a news story breaks they are buying a 3-D Sensor Company PrimeSense for $300 million bucks. This is more proof they are moving into technology to finish up AppleTV and that is what lifted the stock all day today. This gives the stock momentum and if Black Friday sales are strong, we should see AAPL make a strong effort to hit $555.00 and/or my T3 target.

 

If you were fishing this morning for calls then you should have been filled and picked up some HUGE gains. I took profits on the 530 calls and I am holding the 550 Dec Wk 1 looking for a HUGE winner!

 

I plan on fishing in the morning for another Lotto trade looking for a continuation of this momentum and a rally on Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11/25/13 - Black Friday is fast approaching and AAPL is barely putting on some green today as the retail holiday shopping party starts. Well, if the news starts to report weak sales across the board, then AAPL has to get a positive boost from those news sources get the frenzy type (more like hype) investors going. I do not expect any measured moves this week, so you have to just be patient and fish for some cheaper entry prices for now.

 

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11/20/13 - Was filled on my 550 and 530 calls at a huge discount from yesterdays pricing. Closed out my Jan14 450 Naked Puts for a nice profit.

 

 

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11/19/13 - As we get closer to Black Friday we can expect AAPL to find some buying pressure but we need it to get back over $540 to really get the shorts on board and squeeze this stock higher. I suspect AAPL can easily make it to $555 which has been a long time target of mine. Best bet here is to buy a small call position to just get in and then fish for additional options with lower prices. Keep your max OTM strike at $550 to assure you can get best odds of making a good profit. I plan on doing some WW fishing on Friday and also next week ahead of Thanks Giving.

 

 

 

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11/17/13 - Quietly holding ground and most likely to continue as Black Friday and Christmas shopping season kicks in. Any negative news and you will see AAPL take dips but I expect any dips to be bought back immediately and until the next earnings release, we should see AAPL maintain its strength. Upside target is T3 and downside support is T2. The daily chart is putting in a mild cup-and-handle pattern but needs a few days of sideways trading to complete the handle—these are know to be bullish patterns.

 

 

 

 

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11/4/13 - A few days of sideways trading is testing the resolve of that engulfing candle. Today, AAPL managed a close over the 55% Fibonacci Retracement point and that must hold to get bullish momentum players to buy in again. With the markets still wanting to move higher, AAPL will go with the trend for now. Remember, we are in the season of AAPL and that will keep investors interested until the next earnings release which will be the BIG event for the future of this stocks chance at reclaiming their glory highs. I am looking at selling some Bull Put Spreads tomorrow if AAPL holds above $525.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10/29/13 - Excuse me for a minute while I wipe the apple pie off my face. What a mess this tuned out to be. Well, if you were short today after the open, then you should be happy with the final results. I had a fantastic after hours profit last night, but today, that was quickly crushed when AAPL opened up weak then sold down all day. Now if you had puts closer to the money, then you maybe made some money but the OTM lotto plays were crushed this time around. Now if you were fishing for a WW trade, well, you caught a BIG ONE today!!!

 

Today's candle pattern shows us (and everyone with "any" technical knowledge) a super bearish engulfing pattern. If everyone can recognize this, we have to be careful over the next couple of days. It's most likely going to drop AAPL tomorrow, but keep your BS detector on if AAPL gets down to T2 because that is about where the novice public will wait to load up on puts and then get the squeeze put on them by the big money traders. AAPL is still a cheap stock on a multiple basis and they are entering into their best sales season, so I am looking for this stock to find a quick bottom and shoot back up to test the full range of toady's trading.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10/28/13 - Egads, Apple beats but it's gross margins are lower—the death nail investors did NOT want to hear. Initially explodes to $542 only to get crushed back down to $503 before investors jumped on (me being one of them) in after hours taking the stock back to $535; then finished the night at $525.00...hmmm...looks like Johnny came late and forgot to plant some apple seeds.

 

Well, we win some and we lose some but I won't be losing any sleep on this one...lol.

 

Tomorrow, there will be plenty of volatility so get ready to fish for a white whale trade!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10/28/13 - Expected move tomorrow is $30 bucks but I think AAPL will move up to 2x that so get ready for some action. I am buying some puts and more calls today 1 strike inside this move on both sides.

 

 

 

 

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10/23/13 - Putting on some green today and with a bullish pattern and a strong earnings quarter that = $555 or higher!

 

 

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10/22/13 - New products, same old same but this time the stock held ground unlike the past when it usually gets dumped on this news. With earnings coming and all the others stocks hitting or exceeding numbers, we may finally see AAPL make the move to $555 and beyond. Be sure to have puts in play and we will definitely be fishing for WW trades. This time I WILL be much better prepared.

 

 

 

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10/21/13 - Tomorrow should be the kick off when AAPL reveals the new iPads. Historically, the stock has actually sold off from this event but the chart is still very bullish and with NFLX killing it, GOOG holding $1,000 we could be in for some killer moves higher. I sold my lotto calls and picked up some Nov Wk 1 calls and Oct Wk 4 lotto puts just in case things get ugly. I will be looking for a straddle play the day of earnings.

 

 

 

 

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10/20/13 - Getting ready for the next mega winning trade? Well, I am not so sure it will be the same move for AAPL, but I do expect a very nice one when earnings are announced. On Tuesday, AAPL releases its new iPads and maybe some other products and that will definitely move this stock. If they have a surprise up their sleeve, then we should see a nice rise over $425 the next day; plus, if they blow out earnings, we should easily see AAPL hit $555.00; now if the product release fall flat, that is what this stock will do the rest of the week...FALL. I have long calls right now and I am hoping for a gap and run tomorrow ahead of Tuesday. I plan to pick up some puts and put in a stop at 50% on my calls for this week. When earnings are ready, I will have a straddle in place so stay tuned for my strike price picks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10/17/13 - GOOG beats, AAPL rises in after hours! Looking good for a big move tomorrow if everything else is a go in the markets. With GOOG beating and rising, AAPL tends to follow suit so let's hope we get that boost and then a killer earnings beat to really kick off the last quarter of 2013! —the only pesky thing about this is AAPL still did not close above the SGB zone. Did not get filled on my $500's so cancelled trade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10/16/13 - Finally! A move and close over $500. But hey, I was expecting a lot more than a $1.00 move off all the market moves and news. This does not give me a lot of confidence AAPL is capable of making the big moves. It takes big money and they are sitting on the sidelines until earnings are released. With the announcement of Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts coming to AAPL, that barely lifted the stock over $500 yesterday and today was not much of a follow up, but I will take what I can get. I rolled out of my weekly 500 and 505 calls and bought some 495 calls for next week. I was on pins and needles the whole day as the stock bounced around $500. I bought some 490 insurance puts for the rest of this week just in case something turns the lights out on this stock. AAPL stopped rising today EXACTLY on my SGB range and that does not bode well for the bulls, especially with a 200pt rally today on the DJ-30. I know that if AAPL clears this last SGB zone, it can really get a move on so I am looking for that to happen soon. Most likely the stock will stall until GOOG earnings are out and the government shutdown is completely abated. In post market today AAPL initially dipped on the IBM earnings but still held the $500 price which is very encouraging for tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

 

AAPL is attempting to make a come back and it certainly can, just like NFLX did. The first major hurdle will be T3 and that is exactly where I expect it to rise to on strong earnings.

 

 

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10/13/13 - Is AAPL about to bust a move over $500? It is sure looking like it but it does have a ton of overhead resistance to get through and that takes big money to make it blow right on by. I am looking for a hopeful gap over on Monday and a nice 10% move this week. I bought into some Oct Wk 3 475 Calls on Friday and I have some $500 calls too. I am looking for some more $510's tomorrow if I can get a cheap price. I do not want to chase it on a gap up so I suggest you buy 1 or 2 and fish for more at least 55% under the opening price. There will be plenty of trade opportunities going forward so do not think you missed out on any one trade. Now if AAPL fails to take out $500 we could be in for a pretty good pull back ahead of earnings scheduled for 10/28/13. I certainly hope that is not the case but I stand ready to jump on some puts if things go the wrong way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10/8/13 - Market wide weakness is killing the momentum in AAPL. Of course those SGB zones are doing a good job of keeping a lid on the party too. AAPL has earnings scheduled for 10/28/13 and if the markets manage a recovery from the cliff they are on then AAPL should be a leader stock out of this mess. I do not expect a massive move until earnings are release but I am hopeful for a test of $500. Still, we need to be hedged for disaster because even though this stock is getting accolades and upgrades, it is STILL damaged good on a technical basis and BIG money buys on solid statistics NOT speculation. So, with out them in the game, this stock can flounder around.

 

 

 

 

 

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10/3/13 - Up, down, all around. Even with the Carl Icahn meeting and interview on CNBC, AAPL could not manage to hold the previous days gains. Of course we have to give a lot credit to today's big drop in the markets, but when things began to recover in the afternoon session, AAPL did not participate as much as it should have. In fact, if you look over the 15 minute chart, it appears to be more SOLD than rebound. Heck even the shorts were not interested in covering. Of course that can change in an instant because this stock had been estimated to be UNDER VALUED and trading UNDER the S&P multiple. Does that really mean anything? NO! However, it will always have influence so you have to trade around this info to your best abilities. Until AAPL clears out the SGB range's, it's continually vulnerable to more correction. I am watching the WEEKLY chart for my SGB confirmation and hopeful they will pull a new rabbit out of the hat this month with an awesome product announcement and earnings BEAT.

 

I plan on doing some more day trades and WW fishing tomorrow. I am also going to start a longer term straddle because once it fails or clears that HUGE Red Bear Elephant Bar on the weekly chart, the move is going to be a big one.

 

 

The 15min chart was not that encouraging in the afternoon session when the markets rebounded. I am watching close to see if AAPL can get back into the SGB green zone and then head higher on the way to $500 +_as we approach earnings.

 

I plan on getting more longs in place tomorrow but I will buy some puts if AAPL falls back under $475

 

 

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9/26/13 - Up Down and All around is what AAPL has been doing this week. Are they growing, failing or dying is what everyone is thinking. The company announced record sales and the stock leaped higher on Monday but since that stellar rise, it has been sold off all the way back to the gap. It is critical that AAPL holds that gap to keep the big bulls in play going forward. I have been day trading the stock and some options testing the waters before I post some trades because the volatility requires quick decisions day to day. As I said below, keep speculating with fishing orders as I am doing and TAKE PROFITS. Because this stock (in my opinion) is more vulnerable to a BIG DROP than a sustained rise (until earnings) I would suggest you buy some OTM monthly puts as a hedge against any daily or weekly long trades you want to take.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9/22/13 - AAPL gets dumped in the final hour of trading on Friday and some speculate that money went to FB. This stock has way too many gaps and craps indicating BIG money is DUMPING not accumulating. This can be good for shorts but you must be on guard at all times because any good news, positive sales or surprise quarters and this stock will squeeze you out of your short plays. I am looking for AAPL to test the 200MA next week and if there are no more big buyers out there, then it is going to easily drop under $444 on it way back to T1. I think until this stock reports the next quarter, no big money is going to invest.

 

If you want to speculate, then put in fishing order 55% under the previous days close so you are not over paying for your options.

 

 

 

 

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9/19/13 - Back over the the 8MA and and now the final test will be the 21 MA. Tomorrow is options expiration and anything can happen. It's a foregone conclusion markets will continue higher with the full backing of the Fed, no war and the economy on the rise as we head into the final quarter of 2013. I would like to see a test of the 200MA and we may very well get it until AAPL clears the 8MA on the weekly chart. Earnings season is coming up again in October and AAPL is scheduled for 10/22/13. This quarter will be the critical one to determine the longer term direction and it will no doubt have a ton of volatility!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9/18/13 - Back over the two major M/A's and possibly on the right track again. If AAPL maintains these gains I am long, under the 200MA I get short. There is still quite a bit of resistance until AAPL gets out of my red gap down zone but we are in the season of AAPL and until they fail, this stock will find hopeful investors. The big challenge is will it get the institutional money to buck up? That is what we need to really drive this stock back to $500 or higher. That will take the next quarterly report in my opinion before that can happen. I have been fishing for some WW trades but not getting enough movement yet to catch...keep fishing and we will get one eventually!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9/16/13 - Just like I predicted, gap under 200MA and now full test of 89MA. If this fails tomorrow, AAPL is in for a test of $444 which I think it will just keep right on going down to T1. I am sure there will be some great trade opportunities this week with a White Whale Trade so I will be looking for the setups and start fishing. Post market trading still had more selling so tomorrow we have a high odds WW setup and I will be looking for that gap and crap or pop and drop. 

 

Remember, trading is more like a poker game and if you want to gain the edge, then you need to learn how to read your opponents tells. Big money does not like to tell you anything but they cannot go unnoticed by the skilled and experienced trader. We look for wide range bars—aka Bull or Bear Elephant bars especially around gap moves—to show us where the big money is stepping into or out of the liquidity pools. Looking at the weekly chart, you can see AAPL had a massive Bull Elephant bar that failed to continue and now it has put in a duplicate Bear Elephant bar that followed through this week with a gap. We still have four trading days left for this weeks bar to either become another LARGER Bear Elephant or the reversal. The key to that is looking for a wick to develop from today's low. I expect a drop down to $444 and then a pop so I will be fishing for a WW trade all week.

 

 

 

 

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9/13/13 - Is the damage done or is AAPL becoming the Apple turnover? We had an awesome week of trading in AAPL and I expect volatility to continue the rest of this years as investors jockey for position on "hope" that this stock will indeed reclaim it's glory. Of course, the pundits are charging ahead with bearish sentiment and this time they could very well be correct. Heck, they can't be wrong forever right? Ok, so where does that leave us with trading this stock? We trade direction so that leaves us with lots of profit opportunities so stay tuned as I discover them and post to this site!

 

For this week, I, along with just about every investor on the planet will be watching very closely how AAPL handles the 200MA on the daily chart. If Friday is any solid indication, we could easily see the stock gap down under the 200MA. Whenever a major stock such as AAPL gets down to the 200MA big money becomes very interested. Typically there is a bottom found and new capital is put to work, but with all the hoopla shmoopla surrounding this stock, I am not so sure the big boys want to play right now. AAPL is in a major gap down zone so I will just wait to seek how tomorrow plays out. Now if it turns into panic sell off, then I will nibble at some calls of the 89MA or $444.00.

 

I have said below this is the AAPL season but so far, the company has disappointed investors and killed all the momentum it was building up. There is still the possibility of greatness, but it's going to take a massive increase in sales to get the whales to invest again. I do not expect this stock to fall below T1 until there is a big miss on the next earnings release.

 

The expected move tomorrow is currently at: but we know this stock can move a whole lot more and this is Sep expiration week so you know there will be some moves in AAPL, so get ready to start fishing. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9/12/13 - Sold the other 2 490 Puts still have the 450 but those will most likely expire worthless today. We could very well see a rally again in AAPL since it did not touch down on the 200MA. If things turn back down, then I do expect a drop to $450 initially and then T1 on the weekly chart around $426.00.

 

Upside action would be an attempt to fill this gap and test that breakdown SGB.

 

 

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9/11/13 - AAPL was CRUSHED! I bought the $490 Puts at the close yesterday and today woke up to a HUGE profit!!

 

Total Profit on this trade: $18,224.00!!

 

 

 

If AAPL continues to decline this week, it could blow right by the 200MA and reach the 89MA. That would be grand, about $20k more for me.

 

Here are my trades today:

 

 

 

I was filled on all the WW Calls and profited on two. I have the other two open but I do not see AAPL getting back to $500 by Friday.

 

 

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9/10/13 - Another lack luster news event with expected product offerings and boring presentation. If this is the best AAPL can put out, SHORT this stock. I was bummed when we did not get a nice drive higher from pre-market trading and instead AAPL sold off all day. Tomorrow is the China news conference and we still may get a surprise but to what extent will that translate to investors? If this stock has any life left, then it must get back over $505 or investors are going to dump and pump something else...FB, TSLA, NFLX, AMZN etc. Until they have a full quarterly report with the new product offerings. the will be some semblance of support and if they miss, $350 here we come.

 

 

I am expecting a pretty good move tomorrow and the MMM is $8.15 so best case scenario, I want that move to be a Drop and Pop or Gap and Crap so my WW trades have a chance at getting filled.

 

 

I bought back and sold most of my long strategies. I will see how the stock reacts to China Mobile tomorrow and make new trades. One of my news sources said there was a 5 Million share block trade...maybe that was Carl Icahn...lol.

 

There should be some continued volatility the rest of the week so get ready to fish!

 

 

 

 

 

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9/9/13 - No problem taking out $500 today! In fact, AAPL gapped open at $505 and held the line all day. Tomorrow is the big news conference and product announcement. Typically, we get a sell the news event but I am hopeful this will be the kick start to an awesome future for the big A. You better believe the CEO and management do not want to disappoint and AAPL has a history of sandbagging information giving us a nice surprise gotchya moment. If that be the case tomorrow, mortgage the house because AAPL will not be seeing sub $500 the rest of this year. Of course I am kidding about the mortgaging stuff.

 

Just be ready to make some MONEY as the volatility will be swinging wildly as investors jockey for position. You will invariably be wrong on entry points, so always FISH for lower prices on larger contract buys. If we get that expected rally I will be selling some Bull Put Spreads and/or Naked Puts.

 

I was not filled on my Lotto $505 calls since AAPL gapped up to $505 in the morning. I did NOT chase it. I did get the $550's filled so I ok with that for my Lotto Play until Thursday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9/8/13 - AAPL is having trouble getting back over $500 and that is making for some interesting speculations. Apparently the big money is not all that confident AAPL will achieve past greatness; otherwise, this stock would have been well on it's way to $600 by now. Even a (some feel bogus) upgrade to $777 was not enough to launch this stock beyond the initial pre-market $10 pop.

 

On Friday the news reported that AAPL is indeed cutting a deal with China Mobile (CHL) and that did not even lift the stock in after hours beyond $500? The 10th is the release of the new iPhone 5c and there is a news conference in the US and another one in China. This should be the big announcement confirmed by the company and then we are off to the races...at least that is what's expected. I am ready to trade the direction that AAPL provides and my bias is for upside movement.

 

So, some of the stocks to watch and/or play on confirmation of China Mobile are: CHL, NUAN and DCM. Oh yeah, QCOM, TQNT, CRUS, PMCS too since they make chips for the iPhone.

 

 

 

 

 

Here is what the Monthly chart is showing:

 

 

 

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9/6/13 - What the heck happened? No buyers stepped on the gas when that news was fully digested. Hmm, I suspected that it may become a pump-n-dump event, but so far, that has not happened either. AAPL is just sticking around going nowhere. If they have a good kick off next week on the new iPhone release, then we should see that momentum pick up and if the sales are a disappointment, the intilal drop can be a pretty strong one. Just remember, AAPL has a multi BILLION dollar buy back in progress so major drops won't happen until earnings time in my estimation. What I have noticed is the "love affair" this stock enjoyed for years has lost it's power because an upgrade from anyone typically launched this stock up to $30. Instead we only get a pre-market rise that has been squashed.

 

I was very excited in the pre-market trading yesterday when AAPL was up $10 but things died quickly once $500 failed to hold the line.

 

I sold 1 Sep13 490 Naked put and have been trading shares the past couple of days but not making any real gains yet. The daily chart is really showing signs of big money jockeying into position but it's hard to pick a side. I am bullish on optimistic hopes, but fully ready to get short if things get really ugly.  I will keep my Naked puts fully ready to take ownership of my shares if AAPL fall back down.

 

$500 is the new pivot point; and the 200MA the major pull back support.

 

 

 

 

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8/30/13 - This is the season for AAPL as I have said below. Expect some momentum to kick in and that is what is happening. AAPL was upgraded today with a price target of $777.00 As comical as that is, it's typical. After all, AAPL bounced around $666 then $555 then $444 and we all like to see $777 on those Vegas slot machines! Ok, so if AAPL does manage a move to that magical number, are you going to be on it ahead of time? I sure am! If you want to gamble on a big pay day, then AAPL is the one to take your chances for September. Just pick up a couple of puts just in case this upgrade is a pump and dump, that way, you may be able to salvage some capital but I am confident this stock is going to explode higher very soon. I plan on adding some Sep13 puts after I see how AAPL trades today as it will be gapping up and all the premium in the puts will deflate so I want to get a higher put strike cheaper.

 

 

 

 

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8/29/13 -  As the month of August closes tomorrow, AAPL has put in a strong rally and looks ready to start the race back to glory by the end of the year. Of course that can turn into a sinkhole if it cannot close over T2 and any reports that product sales are losing ground. For the future of this stock, it has to now prove itself unlike others (AMZN, LNKD, TSLA, NFLX,) who get a proverbial pass with investors. It takes some big money guns to buy enough shares to push this stock a lot higher, and we have to figure out if they still want to park money here. The monthly chart has a massive amount of technical damage, but we know that can easily be wiped out, just look at what happened to NFLX.  If the war rumors fade, AAPL should find itself back in rally mode as September kicks off.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8/27/13 -  All great harvests take time to sprout so do not worry about today's drop. This is an opportunity to get your seeds planted for a better price so watch for AAPL to pull back to T2 and get some longer time frame calls started. As long as AAPL continues to hold the two bull elephant bars on the daily, I am bullish on this stock for the rest of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8/25/13 - ' Tis the season to plant apple seeds to turn into money trees! September through December is the best time to get aggressively long AAPL and with the new prospects of innovative products and remodeled winners, AAPL is looking ready to start making some big moves. Of course, if sales come up short, that is exactly what we will be doing...SHORTING. Now if sales are strong and AAPL has more fantastic product announcements, the race is on for $700 again.

 

Looking for AAPL to hold T1 or drop into T2 area for aggressive longs.

 

 

 

 

 

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8/22/13 -  AAPL is looking for support and has found it at the 8MA but with SGB's and that is something to consider if you are going long. The disaster with the NASDAQ halted trading market wide for hours and AAPL did not make a move to excite or scare anyone. In fact, Carl Icahn tweeted that he was having dinner with CEO Tim Cook in September to discuss share buy back. This news could have eaily launched the stock higher but with the technical glitches, nothing happened...yet. I bought some AugWk4 510 calls and 495 Puts so I am hoping for a big move tomorrow.

 

 

 

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8/18/13 - My 465 Calls BANKED!! Hope you were on that ride.

 

AAPL closed the week over $500. Will this be the catalyst to propel AAPL higher going forward? I expect it to so I am ready to jump on for some momentum to kick in. If we get a dip back under $500 that holds the previous two Doji days, then I will get aggressively long. Upside target is the next SGB at $555, and then the next high target is $600. If AAPL fails the Doji's then a test of the 200MA is the likely strong buy point. The Jobs movie is a total fail at the box office showing a paltry 6-million domestic gross with a production budget of $12 million according to Box Office Mojo. Most likely, it will become a cult classic in the future. This will definitely NOT have any impact on AAPL for upside, but who know what it can do for downside, I expect the company to release news on products or other things provide any damage control.

 

Bottom line, with Icahn on board, there will be plenty of fish out there to keep buying shares on the "hopes" of his stellar stock picking abilities. Eventually, Icahn and AAPL will make brilliant moves or dismal missteps, and we will be there ready to catch the White Whale!

 

 

 

 

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Profits Up!

The donFranko

 

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