AMZN Stock Information

Updated 3/3/19

 Stats since last update: 

Earnings: PENDING

3/3/19 - Did you see the movement AMZN made on Friday? This stock has been in sideways channel for a few weeks with multiple SGB's and then on Friday the stock took off as news was released they are opening up multiple grocery stores that will offer food and other items to compete with the more mainstream food stores like Vons, Smiths, Sprouts etc.

This news started a bit of a fire under the stock Friday and pushed it out of its SGB zone taking on a nice $31.90 (1.95%) in gains. I do not normally trade AMZN because the options (even on Friday's) are quite expensive so you have to make a bigger decision to buck up; however, when it moves like this last Friday, the returns can be a typical Lotto Trade—one thing I need to point out here is when trading big stocks, they also have BIG spreads, so when you buy in, you are bought in all-or-nothing if you want to maximize the moves.

Although AMZN did not fit the Lotto Trade formula, I still took a stab at some 1650 calls when it moved over the SGB zones looking for a quick profit and then the news breaks after I sold. Once I saw it was gaining momentum, I  jumped back in on the 1660's; but now the price to play was much higher than I wanted to be in at; so I was just too tight on the stops, and unfortunately, I did not get the full potential by the end of the day.

My live account actual trades:

As you can see below, the final result was a lot more than what I took, but you just don't know and being I had $10k on the line for a Friday expiration, I took what did and missed out; however, what I can say is you should consider taking 50-80% off and letting the rest ride if you have a free roll trade from the profits gained.

For this week, I will be looking for some follow through on AMZN and selling credit spreads plus daily scalping CALLS.

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2/11/18 - AMZN has been on a whack-a-doodle roller coaster ride all week. If you were doing some WW fishing on Friday, maybe you caught the Moby Dick on the 1300 puts...WOW

Then image this, the stock bottoms and the roars back for a Double UP!

Imagine the potential here and burn these charts into your memory so you can get similar results in the future because it will happen again!

However, the point here is you MUST TAKE profits before you put another hook in the water because the Puts exploded only to reverse all the way back to ZERO by the end of trading.

So, for me, I am going to start fishing in AMZN on Friday's and when I hook onto a WW, then I will take my profits and buy into the other side to see if I can catch a DoubleUP!

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2/1/18 - AMZN beats and tops $1 Billion for the  first time in quarterly profits...WOW!

All the naysayers (Warren Buffet being one of them) are grinding their teeth for not buying into this stock years ago...just like those who didn't buy into Bitcoin too. This stock is going to most likely rocket higher and higher, but the price to play is now way out of reach for my Lotto Trade strategy during earnings, so I am on the hunt in the coming weeks for a chance to catch a move on a Thur/Fri after the either wears off.

When the stock took a slam down today before the release, you might have been thinking someone got early news, but then when the announcement came, the stock rocketed up eclipsing the ($60) drop; and moving beyond the MMM of +/-$80.00 with a solid +87.10 move!—looks to me the MM's were just sucking up a lot of call premium that they do NOT intend to pay off tomorrow, but you just don't know until the demand begins and maybe we get a NFLX type move tomorrow, but it really won't help us because the IV is 117%, and the calls are going to be ridiculously priced, so the potential trade to consider is WW Puts.

Look at the pre-market action and calculate the total move from yesterdays close to the pre-market high. Then deduct from the high price and fish 1-2 strikes above that distance. For example, if the stock hits $1,500 in pre-market, then I would fish the $1410-1420 strikes with orders for $0.20 and see what happens; because all those PUT buyers are going to get crushed; and many will have stops hit that become market orders; so the goal here is to be the liquidity provider and get matched up at the open. If you don't get filled in the first 5-miuntes, cancel the orders and move on to the next fishing trip another time. If the stock jams over $1500 then it may must keep climbing all day so a trade to consider is a Bull Put Spread but any trade you try with IV this pumped is a very low reward to risk—no worries, there will be opportunities in the future on this stock.

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1/21/18 - There is no stopping this stock, and since my last comments, you could have gotten RICH just buying DOTM calls and holding onto them until Jan expiration...wow.

Ok, so we have started the new year off with a BIG BANK on AMZN calls, and then Friday, AMZN announced they have raised the Prime membership to $12.99  per month (an 18% increase) which had the stock up over $20 in pre-market, but then it was hammered with profit taking all day, closing back under $1,300 giving us a SGB close too! — is this a lucky Fibonacci signal or unlucky black cat sell the news topping signal?

I want to short it with an SGB close, but it's AMZN, and that has been trading account suicide all year every time I have shorted, so for me, shorting is out of the question; however, placing a wildcard Lotto Trade 15-20% OTM my be interesting.

With earnings coming in 10 days, there is no doubt some movement in coming, so the best thing to do is stay inside a 5% move on your strikes; and FISH for entry prices 50% below current bids; because the IV pumps are going to be huge as earnings approach.

If the stock moves back over the SGB on Friday, then bullish bets are on; and a move lower, I will be fishing for calls/spreads if the stock pulls back to the previous SGB zone at $1260.00.

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10/30/17 - We got the surprise beat and the shorts were CRUSHED as the stock EXPLODED to new all time highs taking the OTM calls to the MOON! What I learned here is we MUST start buying wild card calls and puts up to 15% OTM and see if you can hook a Moby Dick!  The key is getting them under $0.10 so you can buy some size and cash in! Keep you eye on the ball especially when the earnings are on Thursday for Friday expirations.

Here was the action and the potential results if you were taking the suggested trade idea or even going a little further out too.

Going forward, momentum has kicked in on AMZN so if there is any profit taking this week, we want to see it hold above the 55% retracement of this massive move and then you can stop in and sell Bull credit spreads and start to follow the trend.

When doing the new ICU trades, be sure to pick up at least 1 contract on the long side or short side because you never know if you will get the action we saw with AMZN...but rest assured, it WILL happen again!!!!!!

Profit grid:

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9/25/17 - Ah yes, the behemoth is about to speak to us tomorrow; and if they do not surprise; then that nice H&S pattern will have the Bears coming out of hibernation with a consensus of "sell the news", but if they do surprise, well, the Bulls will open a bottle of Head & Shoulders; and then brush off the Bears like they were just some dandruff bothering them. For me the clues to a massive move are the SGB zones on the left shoulder and now the recent ones on right. The challenge with playing AMZN is the cost so here is what I plan to do this time. I will be selling a new twist on an Iron Condor credit spread (ICU) for the upside pin at or near $1,000 and then buying some lotto puts on the down side in hopes they get CRUSHED like CMG was today.

This new strategy I am doing will be called the ICU (Iron Condor Umbrella) which is a way to play large stocks for a low-risk-to-high-reward ROI if the stock pins at or near the MMM. If we get that move, this can give you a nice 8 - 10x ROI; and allow you to participate in a very expensive stock without putting up a large amount of capital—especially when IV is pumped up, but the challenge is the stock must stick the landing at the MMM to make maximum profits. The other way to do this is with a Butterfly Debit Spread, but that usually costs more than the new ICU strategy.

When we put on the ICU, we are looking for a lot of open interest at the MMM; and in this case, there is a ton of contracts (+4,000) at the $1,000 strike (which happens to be right at the MMM of +/- $38), so it will take a blowout or big surprise to move this stock much higher; therefore, the Market Makers are most likely going to keep the stock inside the projected MMM move so they can collect all that juicy premium they sold to the masses. Now if AMZN disappoints, the drop can be HUGE, so we will speculate with Lotto Puts up to 15% OTM in the hopes we get a massive slam down like CMG did today...cha-CHING!$$!

Currently the projected MMM is +/- 36.83, so if you add that to today's closing price, we get an upside target of $1009.00.

I am doing a $10 wide spread and selling it for a $9.90 or higher credit and I plan to risk up to $1,000 (10 contracts) for a maximum return of 8 - 9K should the stock "pin" at or near $1,000 on Friday.

To get the maximum profit, AMZN needs to "pin" at $1,000 on Friday per the analysis graph above. Under 990 or over 1010 and it is a 100% loser...DO NOT BET THE FARM ON THIS STRATEGY!

Open interest is on the call side with a ton of activity at the 1,000 price which puts the stock right around the MMM, so there is where I will place my ICU strike.

No big bets placed today and only spreads up to $1050, so a surprise could take the stock way past $1,000 killing the ICU so I am going to do a couple Lotto calls too.

I am going to go with some $900 Lotto Puts for $1.00 or less and some 1045 Lotto Calls for $2.00 or less.

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9/26/17 - A classic Head-and-Shoulders patter with a massive neckline has set up and AMZN is right at a big SGB zone ready to get the slam down. I am looking for a Put Lotto trade opportunity this week; and if we get it I will be looking on Friday for a Lotto trade call play into next week.

I am looking to buy this weeks 895 - 900 puts and then on Friday I will buy some Lotto Calls for the Trump Tax Plan rebound.

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4/26/17 - AMZN has earnings reporting tomorrow along with GOOGL and it is unusual for this stock to report on a Thurs before Friday expiation. This could be a good opportunity for a big move and with IV over 60% the upside is pretty much priced in and so are the calls so the Lotto trade is in the puts and based on the current daily chart there are two DOJI SGB's inside the last tall wicked DOJI SGB when AMZN made a decent drop. If they beat again, we could see a move as much as 5% and if they miss the drop could easily be over $50 so I am looking to buy some 850 puts for my Lotto trade and the swing calls then I will see how the stock reacts post earnings and do some WW fishing Friday morning.

This is a VERY expensive stock and the Lotto trades are expensive too, so if you have a small account, then only buy 1-2 contracts or just wait and see the results and you can do some WW fishing post earnings.

If you have a small account and cannot absorb a total loss, then sit this one out as there will be plenty of opportunities going forward.

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2/26/17 - AMZN backed independent movie wins Oscar which will most likely create a rally in the stock and NFLX also won an Oscar too. These two streaming giants are emerging more and more and now the Academy Awards has confirmed their prowess in the industry. In fact, CEO Jeff Bezos was actually there and received accolades from the host Jimmy Kimmel. My plan is to sell premium on AMZN and buy some Lotto calls for this week up to 5% OTM.

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2/12/17 - Post earnings dip was bought and now AMZN moves back over the SGB zone making it a long over $823.34 and short under $816.00. With continued up side action, look for profit takers to kick in at the $840 level. Now if the stock does open back into this SGB zone, then I will be ready to hit the short button and look for some Lotto trades later in the week.

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2/2/17 - Beats estimates short on revenue gets whacked in post trading. It looks like the talking heads are touting this is a buying opportunity so we may get a nice WW play going tomorrow so I am fishing calls.

Today's close was exactly on the SGB zone low and after hours has the stock right through the last one and about to enter the next one at the 89MA. If get the drop-n-pop tomrorow, then upside is the SGB zone around $820 and a continuation the downside is the SGB zone as low as $780.00.

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1/17/17 -  A very nice move back over the $800 benchmark and a dead stop at the SGB zone on Friday. Today the stock sold off on good volume as there is no doubt investors are taking profits ahead of the inauguration. As of today AMZN is a SGB short bias back down to the 89MA and if things get really ugly, we could see a full drop back to the 200MA. If there is no major issues with the Trump inauguration, then I will be getting long strategies over $823.55.

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1/8/17 -  BAM! The SGB was taken out and up goes AMZN aggressively and boldly. Friday was a massive White Whale play on the call side as I posted put plays thinking the employment report might have disappointed investors and crushed AMZN...uh...nooooo way Jose. The only disappointment was if you were not fishing for the calls, so that is why you must learn my strategies and begin to make some of your own trades because I can certainly make some errors on direction from time-to-time. What I did point out on the WW charts page was that I bought into AMZN calls on Thursday night at the close, and unfortunately, I did not have time to post that trade to the site. Typically, I do my best work after markets hours and very late in the late evenings—like I am doing right now as I type this at 12:38AM PST Monday.

That being said, I may have to start doing Twitter alerts or start a live chat room in the future; and even though you may have missed out on a great WW trade; there is ALWAYS another one coming and I will do my best to help you find them too!

Now that AMZN has made such a huge move the last couple of trading days, surprisingly the IV is relatively low; which tells me the MM's are not that optimistic AMZN will move a lot higher heading into the presidential inauguration. The next resistance is the the SGB at $821 which is also a gap fill, so if we do get a positive market tomorrow, then I am looking to sell some Bull Put/Call Spreads and will fish for some Lotto Puts if the stock reaches the next SGB zone and on Thur/Fri I will be fishing for the next Moby Dick WW trade!

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1/3/17 -  Another SGB on the first day of 2017 trading has AMZN poised to make a much larger move.  Today was a positive close but not an impressive one. With the 200MA lingering below and the SGB today, it is more likely we get a test so I am looking for a fishing opportunity tomorrow or Thursday. I am sure there will be a battle ground around the $750 price just like it was the last time the stock traded there. There is a lot of bullish momentum still left in this stock, but retail is not their strong profit maker...its AWS subscriptions, so we will continue to see how that is going to play out in the coming quarterly report.

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12/29/16 -  Final trading day for 2016 is upon us and AMZN looks poised to take a dive from the current SGB zone. On Wednesday, the stock failed the 89MA and put on another SGB so now we have yet another perfect pivot point to trade from. If it moves over $791 get long and strong and under $755 short with caution. As we get underway in 2017, it is looking like the ether of retail will play out for the stock and all eyes will be on their other business models particularly AWS subscriptions. We all know the company has lost money for years and it was only in 2015 they started to actually post positive quarters, but if you dig into the numbers, you find their "retail" business is by no means a cash cow, so if they do not continue to diversify into other revenue generating venues like AWS, the lofty valuations of this stock will wear on institutional investors and we could see a massive exodus in the future on a miss. Right now, this stock triggered short today off the SGB zone and the 200MA is sitting about $30 lower, so this could be an interesting next couple of weeks for this stock, and I plan to be fishing for calls at the 770 area on dips. Now if the stock decides to take off next week, then I will be selling premium and picking up calls under $800.

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12/26/16 -  A lot of sideways trading the past two weeks has AMZN poised to make a move but will it start this week? The daily chart is showing a lot of bearish sentiment and the weekly chart is a Bear Flag pattern so any negative market events this week should bring AMZN under pressure. The 200MA is about $25 away so that could make for some good shorting profits on a breakdown of the current longer term SGB zone the stock has been testing during the past couple of weeks. Of course, a move higher would be bullish over $765 with a strict stop at $755 for long plays. My play this week is to fish for some calls if AMZN breaks down below $755; and if it rallies over the current SGB zone, I will go for some calls over $766 while I fish for some puts. Now if I get filled on puts or calls, then I will go for a minimum DoubleUP profit.

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12/18/16 -  AMZN tested the previous SGB zone and the 89MA which both held a lid on the stock and down it went again this past week stopping at, you guessed it, the lower Multi-SGB zones. The big meeting of Tech CEO's with Trump did not produce an enthusiastic rally; and with tomorrow being the Electoral College vote; I am expecting some volatility in AMZN and  the markets this week. If we get a downward move, then the 200MA is the big target for technical investors which puts the drop over $25.00 away. We are in the midst of the big shopping season for AMZN and that carries a lot of enthusiasm for the stock so any positive or negative retail news should have an impact from day-to-day which means lots of opportunities if you are a day trader in this stock. If we get a downward move Monday-Tuesday, then I am going to be short shares under the current SGB zone and Long shares over the SGB zone. The daily chart has a sloppy "W" pattern that should be taken into consideration when pulling the initial trigger on shorts—meaning if the stock moves back over the SGB zone be diligent in covering any shorts and/or reversing to a long play. If AMZN can clear out the double Bear 180 SGB zone at $790, then I will get aggressively long.

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12/11/16 -  SGB short signal strikes again as AMZN dropped in a second one after this post then down it went like a falling rock that turned into a nice Bull 180. Now the stock finished the week with a SGB DOJI so I am expecting an interesting move as we head into the final weeks of 2016 trading. This week is the FOMC announcement which is most likely priced in for a rate hike. Will this effect AMZN? I do not think so, but it can influence the amount of movement we will get. If the stock does open lower this week, I plan to sell a few Bear Call Spreads and pick up a Butterfly at the 200MA on the daily chart. Looking over the weekly Bull 180 I see the stock made it to T2 but could not touch T3 before profit taking kicked in. Since the stock topped out, there have been 6 out of 8 weeks of selling candles and until the stock can get back over $810 it is a short bias on any rallies. January earnings will be a big quarterly report for AMZN because it is the biggest selling season for the stock and will set the tone for 2017. Long term, it is well publicized this stock is and will be one of the biggest growth companies in the coming decade so we will have plenty of opportunities to profit and tons of volatility to Lotto and White Whale fish—I am going to make AMZN on of my 2017 Compounder series trades.

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11/24/16 -  A solid move over the SGB zone that produced another HUGE LOTTO WINNER! Now we have a SGB spinning top in place that will be my pivot point for future AMZN trades as we head into December trading. We know this is the big retail selling season for AMZN, so if the Black Friday news is positive, I am expecting the stock to gap over that SGB as early as tomorrow. My initial upside target at $815 and if news is lack luster, then we have our short entry/exit points and my downside target is the 200MA. The weekly chart has AMZN currently in a triggered Bull 180 and has already reached T2 so positive news and its headed to T4.

WOW, a very nice Lotto trade!! If you got in on it, congrats!!

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11/17/16 -  Looks like inventors believe AMZN will benefit from a Trump administration has drove the stock higher all week so far with a stop today at the SGB zone. Tomorrow should be an interesting day so I am going to do some WW fishing on the 765 Calls if bullish sentiment in pre-market and the 740 puts if bearish.  On the weekly chart, we have a triggered Bull 180 in play and upside to $800 per share so I am going to put on some spreads and butterflies for next week and beyond. Long term comments all week that AMZN is a great bullish play and there certainly is plenty of upside to recover but you never know what is going to happen with the rival between Bezos and Trump, but I am thinking it will be worked out—there is just too many Billions on the line for Bezos not to tone down on Trump...initially.

So far the 755 Lotto calls are making nice profits and I will be taking them off the table tomorrow.

AMZN triggered a Bull 180 setup this week so I am trading shares and fishing for longer term call options at T3 strikes.

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11/13/16 -  WOW what a deluge of selling AMZN has been under since the earnings miss; and now with the Trump upset, this stock was hammered even more post elections. I am sure it was due to the fact that CEO Bezos and Trump were basically bitter enemies; and now that Trump has won the election fund managers are definitely worried that Trump will have a grudge against AMZN based on his anti-trust comments.

The president-elect is certainly one to hold grudges.

Bezos did offer a congratulatory tweet (Congratulations to @realDonaldTrump. I for one give him my most open mind and wish him great success in his service to the country.) to Trump, so maybe things will work out between them in the coming future, but if we get the aggressive outspoken Trump, then you can expect a lot of volatility in AMZN in the coming months.

Here is what happened to Puts on AMZN Thursday when the Dow rallied but the Nasdaq stocks were crushed. If you were WW fishing then you had the chance to catch a Moby Dick, so study these charts, learn the strategy and start your fishing trips every week because I am sure there will be plenty of volatility in AMZN going forward. Start fishing on Wed-Fri every week on AMZN and FB even if I do not have trade ideas posted.

Looking over the charts below, we have some good insight on the bias for AMZN and some solid SGB pivot points to trade off of.

The longer term charts have a very bearish bias with a triggered Bear 180 on the quarterly.

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8/27/16 -  AMZN failed to make the grade on analysts estimates and guided lower causing a stampede exit dropping the stock in after hours over $73 before it reclaimed  about half that decimation and finished at $772.00. Since the last two quarters were surprise earnings reports, the stock has had huge 40% increase; and the after hours drop of 6% has now taken back nearly 15% of that move; so now all the funds and investors who have been in the stock since that initial surprise quarter have to decide to double down or take whatever profits they have left. With guidance only inside analyst expectations, that may give pause to further investing and rise to profit taking. Either way I expect quite a bit of volatility tomorrow and with the last SGB zone at $818, anything under that is a short, so I am fishing from some WW calls in the event of a drop-n-pop as the puts will be pumped way up. Now if the stock finds buyers in the pre-market and cannot hold over $800 then I will fish puts at the $745 - $755 strike if I can get in for under $1.00. Other than that, I will be looking at selling some credit spreads against the direction of momentum.

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8/21/16 -  AMZN failed to hold the SGB zone and is now trading under it. If the markets make a turn for the downside, AMZN is a good short candidate for a minimum of $10-20 points but be ready for buyers to step in around the next SGB zone so taking profits is critical because any positive news and this stock can easily explode higher. So, my idea is to trade bearish into the next SGB zone with the sole purpose of paying for Lotto Call strikes between 755 and 765. I am going to go with some DOTM Lotto put debit spreads with SepWk1 expiration just in case we get a complete meltdown in the stock and markets as we head into the final week of Aug trading.

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8/7/16 -  Since my last comments, AMZN had their earnings release and once again beat. The stock saw much smaller move than last earnings, and put in a SGB that has been tested and now taken out on Friday. We have the pivot point for Long and Short plays so for now, the bias is long if the stock opens up tomorrow and holds above $764.00. My strategy is to sell some Naked Puts or Bull Put Spreads and I want to fish for some Butterfly spreads for this Friday expiration.

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7/19/16 -  What rise we have seen in AMZN since my last comments. That double DOJI SGB turned into a launch pad as the markets added some fuel to the fire lifting everything. Once AMZN made the move, the next catalyst was their 2nd annual Prime Day event that kept the momentum going. After the event was over, investors took profits and now it appears the Bulls are ready to take off again. If we manage to get a pull back to the SGB zone, I would definitely be buying some calls but for now I will start on a couple and fish for better entry prices because the IV will continue to increase as we get closer to next weeks earnings release. Unfortunately, AMZN is a very expensive stock so if you have a small account, you should be cautious and wait for some better lotto trade opportunities next week the day of earnings or try some Butterfly Debit Spreads where you can get in cheap and the rewards can be pretty strong.

I am going to do a $755 Butterfly spread for this week for $0.19 debit and see if the stock can reach up to the Prime Day bubble high at 755.55.

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6/12/16 -  Double DOJI SGB's has AMZN poised to take a much needed break and maybe even a gap fill down to $680 if the markets get dumped this week of Triple Witching expiration. This stock is in a very strong UP TREND and also very popular right now, so any dips will most likely be buying opportunities for investors who missed the huge post earnings move.  The stock pulled back on Friday testing the 21MA on the daily chart so now the next logical MA test is the 8-Train on the weekly chart which intersects around $700 so I am gong to try a Butterfly just under $700 for this week and fish for some Lotto 720 calls and swing wild card lotto puts for month end down at the last SGB zone.

Here is an example of the 697.50 Butterfly with a $0.05 Debit that I am looking at buying tomorrow.

 A $386 max risk for a potential $12k return is a strong bet!

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5/20/16 -  As I predicted, the stock made the $700 pull back and dropped into a gap fill where investors were waiting to jump in. Not the stock is testing the DOJI top and looks to be ready to make the next move coming out of the "sell in May and go away" phenomenon that did not produce the expected outcome in the markets. Now that the FOMC news is out and digested, June is looking to be an interesting month of trading as investors prepare for a rate hike that will NOT have any negative impact on the markets, or so it is believed by most. With all the momentum that AMZN has built up, the weekly chart is looking good for another let up and $750 is the target in the minds of most investors. If things turn south, then bargain hunters will be waiting around the 8MA on the weekly chart or $680 area. Of course if there is any negative news or downturn in the markets, AMZN is vulnerable to a lot of profit taking so I want to have some wild card Lotto puts in play as we move forward into June.

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5/16/16 - AMZN ust kept on jamming higher since my last comments; and if you were doing some bullish plays; then you should be quite happy with the results so far. With multiple upgrades and price targets to $1000, AMZN is poise to just keep finding buyers on dips. Today's action had the stock test $700 and so far it has held; however the daily charts has the stock sandwiched into two DOJI's so that indicates there is a change coming. The weekly charts have been rising now for 14 weeks; and as long as AMZN holds over 55% of last weeks range; we may begin to expect a parabolic move to start if the stock takes out $721.21 which was a bubble high I saw on Thursday last week.

Today news was released that the company is starting to enter into the Private Label grocery offerings and that has big box store retailers like Wal-Mart and Target scrambling to figure out how they will be able to compete with the coming behemoth that AMZN is morphing into. With their new found stellar highs, that increase their market cap and gives them leverage in funding, borrowing and expansion efforts. For many years investors have consistently given AMZN a  pass with NO profits but will they be as forgiving now that the company is actually making profits should they disappoint? Well, so far, investors are very enthusiastic and willing to now pay up over $700 per share.

With the price of the stock now in competition with the likes of GOOGL, it may very well be the replacement stock for PCLN in the future as one of the most expensive stocks to trade. This makes is difficult for small accounts to get in on the action so you have to pick your spots and ALWAYS fish for better entry points. The other way to play is with spreads too.

Ok, so if the stock suffers a blow, the initial drop could easily be 10% but that will have to happen over an earnings event in my estimation so I will just work on spreads and some Thursday Lotto trades going forward for now.

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4/28/16 - AMZN crushed estimates nearly doubling them and making over $29.1Billion in revenue...wow. The stock was all over the place today with an initial move up over $16 then a crushing blow with the markets turning over when the Karl Icahn news hit dragging everything down with AMZN closing negative on the session. Once the earnings news was out, all those investors who were getting short all afternoon just got their heads whacked off in a missive short squeeze in after hours. So, will there be anyone left to buy tomorrow? I think we may get a push to $700 in pre-market and if it fails there after the open I am going for a WW put trade if it fails to take out the all time high in pre-market or pops over and drops under in the first 5-15 min candle—and if we get profits on the OTM calls I plan to take them after the open.

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4/27/16 - Tomorrow is the big day for AMZN and the bets are flying all over the place. This stock is expected to report another profit but will it be large enough for the big money funds to keep buying it? Last quarter the stock missed estimates and was crushed nearly $100 so if they miss again, the downside should be bigger than the MMM and if they beat, I do not expect it to move much more than $60.00 to the upside but you just do not know until it happens so we plan for and play what we get.

An interesting big bet placed today on 700 calls that expire tomorrow. This move is over 2x the MMM of 42.19. It seems to me this could be a MM Tell or Bluff attempting to get investors to buy calls as the Market Makers are probably selling into them. This is a $55,000 1-day bet and is very suspect to me but anything is possible.

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4/25/16 - Nice rally today in AMZN but no big options bets yet. I expect a full MMM move post earnings, so I am getting ready but this stock is very expensive and not for small accounts.

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4/24/16 - Last quarter they missed and made a huge drop and since then the stock has more the recovered it. If they meet or beat this time, we could see a gap to the all time highs but another miss and the drop could be even bigger than the last one. Friday the stock traded down with the markets and GOOGL miss stopping almost exactly in the SGB zone from last year and 1/12/16. On Thursday the stock put in a DOJI candle after three days of sideways trading indicating big money is lightening up into earnings. Trading options on this stock is very expensive so spreads are the best way to try and catch some profits and fishing for wild card lotto trades in the event of a big upset.

Calls are 94,558 vs. Puts at 63,690 and no big option bets yet but will update if I see anything.

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1/28/16 - They missed the quarter estimates and IMPLODED dropping almost $100.00 in after hours. This week of earnings have been very exciting, frustrating or devastating depending on what side of the trade you are on. I only had Calls posted but maybe you did some puts too; however, when stocks this big move like this, they tend to rebound so the market makers do not have to pay off all those deep OTM positions. So, we are going White Whale fishing in the morning and see if we can catch a Moby Dick!

If you jumped on the 675 calls then you should have taken profits since the stock was up so much today. If not, just work it out with spread premium and WW/Lotto fishing in the coming weeks.

These are the retracement levels I will be looking for if the stock races back up.

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1/27/16 - Tomorrow is earnings and can AMZN explode $70+ like it did last time? The markets are not bullish but investors are getting itchy and this could be a HUGE trade. We had a perfect setup today with a nice drop so the call premium has been deflated; however, it is still very expensive with IV pumped up at 127%, so if you have a small account, you should consider only doing spreads.

Big options trades today:

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10/22/15 - Amazon beats with a surprise profit and the stock explodes over $70 in after hours trading hitting new all time high!

The current move is strong, but not quite enough to make all the Lotto trades profit; however, the multi-calls should still make some profits overall if the stock holds up at the open tomorrow.

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10/21/15 - Can we get another $100+ move from AMZN this quarter? It's a tall order no doubt and if they post a strong quarter we can expect at least the MMM of +/- 47.376. Now if they miss, then the HUGE SGB from last quarter will be the top for a long time in my estimation. Today's closing price is definitely one to take note as it is a Fibonacci number (55) therefore, I believe that is a signal however how do we determine if it's a long or short one? If I knew that answer, I would tell you to mortgage the house and bet the whole thing but we cannot do that so we need to do the best we can to discern that clue and then place our bets for the future move. I look at the options activity, contract loads and previous earnings moves to gauge where I think my bias can best be profited from.

My bias has been cautiously bullish and I do not expect AMZN to move much beyond the MMM if at all, so I am going to do a Iron Condor on this one to help finance my long trades.

Here are the options stats: 

Here are the big trades today:

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10/20/15 - Today the market pulled back and investors took profits. Thursday the day and we could have a HUGE move like we did last time. I was filled on my Multi-Calls and now I am looking for some puts and shorting shares by earnings.

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10/19/15 - It is earnings time again and AMZN has been on a huge pre-earnings run retracing the entire SGB from the last earnings announcement. Expectations are no doubt going to be very high so if they cannot deliver another great quarter, then the beat down should be as bad as the last one or worse. If they beat and guide even better the we see all time highs and the skies the limit so you have to pick your sides and see what comes because last earnings the stock exploded over $100 initially before getting pounded back down and this time good news is a green light.

 IV is currently at 91% and I expect it that go even higher. the MMM is +/- 42.84 and that will adjust some too in the next couple of days. With this one, we have to consider buying some more time to give us a higher probability of gaining a nice profit. Options prices are very expensive at these levels so selling premium spreads is probably the better bet or saver way to get in on the action.

Option Stats:

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7/25/15 - What a ride AMZN gave us this earnings season! I had my Naked calls in place and at the open on Friday I was not feeling all to excited; however, the stock failed to hold pre-market highs and just kept slipping lower and lower until we were in the money...whew. This was one of the first times I have done some Naked Calls into an earnings play but with AMZN IV packed in at better than 130% it was just too juicy not to do them.

If you were doing some WW trading in the first 15 minutes, then you had a huge opportunity to bag a Moby Dick on any strikes higher than 540.00. One of my subscribers did a WW on the 555 Puts and he took a nice profit at $4.00 but later in the day they really took off and ended the day at an impressive $23.20 bid.

Here were other WW trade opportunities to look at for ways to hook one of these in the future because they WILL happen again.

Fridays profit taking is now a massive SGB that will become the pivot point for long/short plays going forward. I expect a bounce at T3 and then a test of the new all time highs in the near future so we want to be testing some trades around this SGB. In trading analytics, it is widely known that, "all gaps get filled" but some times it takes a very long time for that to happen and now that AMZN is on the path to growing profits, we may not see it fill the two gaps on the daily chart for a very ling time if ever.

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7/23/15 - What? AMZN posts another profit?? You mean they can actually make a buck now??? WOW the stock moved over TWICE the MMM; and if it can hold this into the open, we just might see this stock make a run for $600 a share. Unfortunately, it is not looking too good right now for all my bearish plays, but things can change in a New York Minute. So, what we need to do is apply some CPR strategies to get any losses back and there will plenty of opportunities moving forward. Try to remember, we trade in an aggregate and you should never EVER put all your trading capital into any single trade idea because I have many losing trades but the winner more than cover the losers over time.

This stock now has an astronomical amount of profit since the pre-earnings rally that began back at $430; and with the overall markets slipping lower today on a strong jobs report, we could very well see profit taking kick in tomorrow; and recent AMZN investors have a lot to protect.

There is going to be a lot of price action in this stock tomorrow, so I am looking to do some WW fishing  on both calls and puts and hope to catch something to make me back some profits.

I am going to trade off of the Friday T-Levels if we get a profit taking event tomorrow. If the stock bounces off T2 or T3 in the first 15 minutes, then I am looking for a momentum run to start and we are off to continued new highs; however, if we get a gap higher in the morning; then I will be watching how it trades at T1 as my Long/Short pivot for Longer Term plays.

Pre-market is where we will probably see a lot of action.

NOTE: Do not trade in this stock if you do not have a lot of experience. Just wait for the next Lotto Trade Idea which is FB next week.

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7/22/15 - Tomorrow is the day we see if AMZN can blow through $500 or if that big SGB is the TOP and down we go. IV is so pumped up that the weekly options are ridiculous in price even for a DOTM call/put play. Well, we know stocks can fall much further and faster than they can go up, but stocks like AMZN can do it on both sides.

It appears somebody is taking a really BIG GAMBLE and sold a whopping 1,950 contracts of the Jul Wk4 550C. Hard to say if they are naked but there is no spread indication and RED means the trade went off at the bid. That is a 195,000 share comittment and if AMZN only achieves the expected MMM that that trade is going to be a massive $799,500 success.

There is no way to know if that trade is a hedge, spread or straight naked position so you just have to draw your own conclusions.

I already have a Multi Lotto put trade in place and I plan to buy a couple of calls. Since there is the SGB in place on a huge pre-earnings' run up, I plan on doing the Wild Card Lotto on the put side.

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7/20/15 - Today AMZN put in a SGB just under $500. Can you believe this stock is now about to trade at $500 a share and they basically make ZERO profits????? People are just betting on the future and why not, the company has an impressive business model, products and services that seem to run very smoothly. Every time I order from them I ALWAYS get my products on time and a great price. I even signed up for Prime. As I predicted below, the stock was poised for a big move higher and that is what we got! If you were doing BPS, long shares and even calls, then you made some great profits. Now that we have that SGB in place we can place our orders around it and have the benefit of a solid entry exit point. The upcoming earnings are on the 23rd after the bell.

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6/13/15 - Initially AMZN popped higher on the NFLX news and then was immediately sold off closing EXACTLY at the top of the last SGB DOJI's. We have the perfect trade points; however, the total distance is $36 so that makes it difficult to get into short term options but selling premiums spreads is a decent way to get in on the action. All the sideways action the past 7 weeks give AMZN more fuel for an explosion higher if the pennant flag holds and the news is strong. My plan is to keep fishing for long plays and do some BPS spreads to finance things.

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6/9/15 - NFLX getting 5 billion shares to throw around and a split coming may put a little bit of selling pressure on AMZN as investors decide who will be the king of on demand content. The stock is currently testing the SGB DOJI zone so a move back under $421 is a short and above $430 a long candidate. The stock has basically traded sideways for weeks now indicating investors are happy with their investment, but fund managers are not so willing to jump in during the summer doldrums. The weekly chart is a nice looking Pennant but that is the challenge, it is TOO obvious so the opposite effect is likely. I am going to fish for some puts this week and some calls for next week.

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5/30/15 - Another quite week as AMZN looks to be ready to make a move one way or the other. A straddle position could be an interesting trade but you need to keep your strikes under a 5% move to increase best odds of success. Typically June is a light month of trading as we begin to enter the summer doldrums. Last year AMZN pulled back until the end of June before it found some buyers. Earnings are way off in July 22, but a move over $444 should get the technicians excited to start testing upside breakout moves.

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5/23/15 - A quite week for AMZN and the markets. The pattern on the weekly chart could be classified as a Bull Pennant formation and any positive news will result in a pretty good move higher; however, I prefer to see them develop over the course of a few trading weeks vs one huge jump higher. Still, you have to give it a bullish bias and with AMZN on the move and expanding into just about everything, there is just nothing but upside "potential" with this stock for now. We do have to give some attention to the double SGB's a couple of weeks back and AMZN is currently testing the zone, but any dips lower will be met with bargain shoppers so I do not recommend any aggressive shorts. You may want to put on a couple BCS trades in the event the stock dips but my main strategy is to just fish for lower entry points on long trades. REMEMBER the Bull Flags are on weekly charts so you have to buy more time if you are aggressively bullish. IV ranking is only at 19% for next week indicating a +/- move up to $9.12 so we want to fish for the 420 calls at a 55% discount.

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5/17/15 - We had a good lotto trade on the 430 puts ending up $4.00 ITM on Friday! One of the BPS spreads made a small gain and the other I had to buy back so I will just look to sell another one. AMZN has entered the double SGB zone but this stock has future compelling news all the time, so any dips should look to be buying opportunities until there is a strong change in sentiment.

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5/10/15 - Looking like AMZN wants to rise again, but with two back to back SGB's we have to be ready to make a counter move.

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4/29/15 - Profit taking is has taken hold as investors move into the end of April trading. I am looking for AMZN to pull back a little further, preferably back to the 8MA on the daily chart or T3 on the 15 minute chart is where I will try a couple of long plays.

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4/26/15- Where will the stock go from here now that it has made all time highs? The consensus is a lot higher so long as the overall markets continue to expand higher. The multiple this stock trades at is ridiculous, but that is what the naysayer pundits have been saying for years about AMZN yet it just keeps going up up UP. How we approach this stock now is with premium spreads and fishing orders. If you were watching the IV then you know they had that pumped up over 110% and by the end of trading Friday, it was deflated down to 30.53%. Selling premium is 90% guaranteed money when IV is that high so going forward, we start looking for more of those types of trades to build profits for the Lotto Trades!

The stock did not pull back at all Friday, so we will see if investors still have an appetite for more this week. I am looking for a little profit taking and will try some calls if the stock pulls back to T2 and T3.

I am always observant of price action especially when stocks pivot or close on Fibonacci sequence numbers; and Friday the final trade was at $445.10 with a positive close up +55.11. To me, this is "code" the powers that be use to telegraph future moves in a stock. I know it sounds like tinfoil type conspiracy stuff, but you have to believe that old time traders like me have superstitions and decades of experience; and I have to tell you after trading hundreds of thousands of times; watching markets every day for the past 17 years; and looking at tens of thousands of charts; there is SIGNIFICANCE in the Fibonacci sequence.(1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89); so when I see stocks closing with exact Fibonacci numbers, I take notice and use that as my pivot points—a guidepost if you will.

The MayWk1 Lotto trade was BIG winner and as you can see in the chart, the IV deflated 50% of the gains by the end of trading so this is where we will fish this week.

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4/24/15- BAM!! We get another HUGE winner with AMZN...WOW!! Congrats if you were on the calls!!!

All the trades on AMZN today

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4/22/15- Lets hope AMZN performs better than FB and CMG and we get another NFLX winner again. It appears this earnings cycle has been better to just sell premium spreads, Iron Condors or just naked strangles to capture profits. AMZN has been on a strong move from the last earnings and a steady climb into this one, so I am looking for a decent move and since the stock is just under all time highs, a surprise could take it much higher than the MMM. The problem is the IV is pumped up at 128% making the DOTM calls very expensive so we would definitely need a move greater than the MMM to make strong profits. Any move at or under will result in very small gains to 100% loss.

A couple of large trades today with a bias to the down side.

There are more calls than puts so a big miss would make for a strong move down, but a meet or slight beat may give us momentum like NFLX. So, I am thinking the MM are expecitng people to play it like a NFLX and instead they try to keep the stock beat down and suck up all the fat IV.

I am going to sell some premium spreads and take a shot that AMZN may trade beyond the MMM.

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1/30/15- Another LOTTO AND WHITE WHALE WINNER today!!!

White Whale Trade WINNER

1/29/15 - What? A PROFIT!! Wow, the company delivers a bigger profits than analysts estimated and the stock launches twice the expected move to a post market high of $357.15!! Now all we need is some follow through tomorrow and it's another earnings LOTTO WINNER!!

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1/28/15 - Tomorrow is a big earnings release for AMZN. Last time the stock missed estimates and was whacked down $29.00; however, the stock found buyers down there and rallied back to $340 before profit taking kicked in again off an SGB. The past two quarters have seen this stock get beat down, and if they miss again, well, this time it could go down for the count, so I am going with longer term puts and short term calls for my Lotto Trade. The IV is pumped way up so buying calls is very expensive; and if the stock does not move PAST the expected MMM of +/- 22.00; then profits will be minimal to none, so only risk what you can afford to lose or just sell some vertical spreads and collect some premium.

Today, the stock peaked out in another SGB zone and closed down at the lows, but that was possibly market induced by the Fed sell off. There was a news story that the company launched an email service for companies which is yet another venture outside their core business model. This can be viewed as good or bad as the company continues to spend into expansion with different vertical markets. I guess if you do everything, you will have everything right? Well, how about some freaking EARNINGS for a change...lol.

I think guidance will be the big factor here since this report is basically the final quarter of 2014 and they guided lower last time. Maybe they are sandbagging and 2015 will be the kick off to profits. Well, it will have to be the case going forward, because investors may finally be tired of giving AMZN a pass on a miss, but you just never know and based on the past two quarters, I think institutional money has grown tired of the if-and-come attitude of the company and is now looking at the actually valuation models they use to base a real price on the stock—if that be the case, this stock could easily sell down this year well over $100.

The stock is well within striking distance of the 200MA on the weekly charts and that is a definite first target should they miss. The monthly chart is looking very bearish and that makes a downside longer term move to the 89MA a strong probability of the stock loses the $280 price area.

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11/2/14 - Had to buy back my spreads and will be looking for my next entry points once I see how the stock reacts to the current SGB zone its trading in.

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10/29/14 - The post earnings bounce may be over depending on how the markets react to Yellen's testimony tomorrow. As long as AMZN stays under the SGB zone, it's a short for me.

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10/23/14 - BIGGER MISS than expected!!

Amazon’s Spending Leads to Biggest Quarterly Loss in 14 Years

The stock gets WHACKED in after hours.

The BCS will be a 100% Winner and will cover the BPS losses.

I did not get filled on the other trades. I will be fishing for a White Whale trade in the morning.

Once things settle out, I will be looking for more BCS to sell.

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10/21/14 - Thursday is earnings and we could see a pretty good move in the stock so get ready. Since my last comments, the stock has dropped down a fair amount from that SGB and Friday it put in another one only this time the stock rallied; however, I think that was due more to a market wide rally. There is also a lot of news on Tax Deals with foreign country that could be lifting the stock too. This company is destined to be the BIGGEST retailer on the planet and eventually they will turn the profit corner. Will they show improvement this quarter? Most likely not because the upcoming quarter is the biggest one for the company. The charts show the stock has been consistently getting sold down since September and that selling has been consistent and tight in range. This usually translates into lower prices and if they do not blow the doors off, I think we will get a nice drop.

With a very big "M" pattern, that drop can be quite large. Currently the IV is at 106% indicating a move of +/- $25.41. This gives us a lot of potential for OTM premium selling. Short interest is at 7 million shares and 2.1 days to cover so not at extreme levels which means selling those OTM calls are a reasonable bet.

The longer term Monthly chart has interesting clues. The 8 and 21MA are converging at T3 so this stock is ready to make a measured move. The very large reversal wick 4 months back is definitely institutional selling. The big question is will there be any bottom feeders again around $280-300. A miss and I think AMZN is a sure bet to hit T4 by years end, then we can get an explosive move next quarter.

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9/21/14 - Testing the SGB will prove to be the pivot that takes AMZN down for a while or starts the next multi-leg rally. I am anticipating a big move lower if it fails so I will fish for some puts first and see how the week rolls out before I go for any calls. With the 200 rolling over, all indicators are pointing lower, but AMZN has a history of ignoring that; however, investors are losing patience with quarter after quarter of losses. With BABA as the new "hot" growth stock, it's definitely put up or shut up time for AMZN. The massive rollout out success of the iPhone will definitely put a vice grip on AMZN's fire phone especially since they are basically giving the phone away. Still, it will have some growth prospects but for the mid term, investors will move money to more promising opportunities so AMZN is definitely more vulnerable to selling than rising, but once the company turns the profit corner...look out competitors.

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9/14/14 - Amazon is showing a lot of weakness and with a large SGB I am looking for it to break down under the 89MA. If that happens, then we are in for a longer term change into the Bearish direction. Of course, that can always be changed by news events, but as AAPL rolls out the new iPhone in the coming weeks, and the Alibaba IPO gets closer, investors are definitely going to dump stocks that do not have appeal or strong earnings—and AMZN is losing ground on appeal and definitely has NO EARNINGS.

If I get any move higher that fails my T3 line, then I will get aggressively short; however, if the stock just gaps down tomorrow, I will see how it handles the 89MA before I jump on some short strategies.

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9/7/14 - The test of the 200 has begun and if AMZN make a close over it, we could be on for a race to new all time highs. A failure, and the 89MA is the next logical stopping point so long as there is no negative news and/or crushing markets.

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8/30/14 - A test of the 200MA and so far investors are taking profits as AMZN announced yet another new venture...exclusive on demand content shows for their Prime service users. I know they have plans to rule the world some day...lol...but until this company can actually turn a profit, investors are losing patience and that builds fear to hold onto lofty stock prices. If you look over the weekly chart, the stock closed EXACTLY on my T3 line this past week and if that does not hold, we will get lower prices so short bias is on deck next week if AMZN traded under T3. Until the stock can wipe out the huge Bear Elephant bar on the weekly chart, it's vulnerable to selling pressure from nervous investors who got crushed.

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8/26/14 - Whoomp! there it is as I get my hinny kicked on my SGB signal and even though things started to go my way, a positive news story always changes things and POP goes weasel.

AMZN announced they bought Twitch and investors / shorts had to cover. If this move has legs, then we will see a continuation tot he 200MA and higher, but if not, it will still be hard to get short now. Since AMZN did not open down from my last comments, I cancelled my put plays. This will put them in direct competition with Netflix and Hulu which means MORE EYEBALLS and content choice for the Behemoth emerging company.

The stock has now retraced over 55% of the big post earnings drop; and so long as it hold $338.00, technical investors will be forced to step in and start to accumulate shares; and with the holiday shopping season approaching, we will most likely see AMZN edge higher if it an take out the 200MA.

Many times, a pop like this is tested so I am fishing for a pull back on a Bull Put Spread.

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8/17/14 - SGB and the magic number 33 are giving us a signal on AMZN. If the stock opens down tomorrow, I am shorting it aggressively.

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8/12/14 - We are now at the 89MA and we have had two DOJI candles indicating a move is about to happen. Bias is LOWER, but AMZN has huge upside potential, and the latest rumblings from authors about their pricing practices has not have a negative impact on the stock so over 89MA we go higher. I am selling some Bull Put sep spreads and buying some Lotto Puts

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8/10/14 - So long as AMZN stays under the 89MA on the daily chart, it's a shorting opportunity, but that is always a slippery slope because of future compelling news lurking around this stock. Other than negative market news and/or meltdown, there is really nothing to tank this stock so short with caution in mind and take profits quickly until you get enough to finance a longer term short trade. This week is Aug expiration so we should be in for some volatility and that makes for us some great trading opportunities.

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8/5/14 - AMZN slipped lower this week, but not enough to get the full credit value of the bear call spread; however, I did get my initial target of 25% which is what I look for with each spread I sell. When selling premium spreads, your initial target is to get 25% of the premium value and sometimes, you get all or most of the premium; however NEVER get greedy! If things are not working out, you just need to extend the duration of your trade and roll out to a longer time frame, different strike price and/or add some contracts to balance out because all stocks will eventually move your way—just do not over sell your account size on a single trade.

This stock has a lot of future potential, but the past two quarters have proven to be a test of the investing publics overly optimistic patience with the continual LOSSES this company posts quarter after quarter. Once AMZN becomes, in the minds of investors, a value play, this stock can easily get cut in half which is still a massive OVER valuation. After all, they LOSE MONEY and stocks only hold onto inflated multiples of earnings and or gain when companies post PROFITS.

The longer term charts clearly show this stock is breaking down so now we start to lean on premium spreads and fish with cheap OTM weekly options.

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7/30/14 - Hanging around "under" the 89ma but a move over would be bullish for technical traders and shorts would begin to cover. If that happens, I will do some Bull Put Spreads.

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7/27/14 - Nice recovery off the opening lows but not enough to get my WW Calls or Puts filled. The strangle made a decent profit and now we need to see how AMZN reacts to the earnings sell off this week. Based on the controlled rise Friday and stop at the 89MA we could easily see a continued slide lower so If the stock does not stay over the 89MA in the first 15 min. of trading, then I am going with short strategies.

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7/24/14 - AMZN gets no pass this time as investors DUMP the stock $36.00 in after hours due to a much wider than expected miss. With the big drop below the MMM  move, we may get a nice snap back rally tomorrow, so a White Whale trade opportunity is exactly what we will be fishing for!

The IV was a whopping 108% so it will be a good lesson to see how that will effect the options at the open tomorrow.

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7/23/14 - Holding inside the SGB zone on the daily and a perfect DOJI on the weekly indicating investors are NOT bullish on this stock. With the IV nearly 100% buying any

Big $625,000 bet on the Oct 400's

MMM estimated at +/- 21.30

So, that puts AMZN at approximately $379.44 on the upside and $336.84 on the down side. Heavy volume on the weekly puts today. Notice how the IV% is a staggering 95.25%! WOW, forget about buying OTM puts or calls, that's almost a 99% guarantee to lose unless AMZN moves a lot further than the MMM. We will fish for a WW play on Friday.

The IV is just too high for me to buy calls or puts, so I am going to sell a strangle outside the MMM and collect some premium.

Depending on how the stock trades tomorrow, I will consider a call and put, but I prefer to just fish for a White Whale trade Friday morning after I see how the stock reacts to earnings.

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7/22/14 - Earnings are about to be released on AMZN and we know they usually get the pass because, well, they will the biggest company on the planet some day right? At least that is what investors believe, are told and want to invest for the long haul. I remember when this company started trading (yes I am that old...lol) and had you just bought 1000 shares at the IPO price of $18 back in 1997 and held onto your investment, you would now have 12,000 shares worth $4.3 Million bucks!

Investing vs. trading can build wealth if you have time and pick the right stocks, so as you make profits from trade ideas here at OptionRadio, be sure to accumulate shares of the companies you profit on. Although this stock has its ups and downs, the trajectory is still in tact above $325.00 which happens to be my T2 line! No matter what direction AMZN takes we always trade what the market give us and I will be prepared to make profits!

Looking over the current charts, the stock is dead stopped at my SGB zone and trading under my T1 line. This give me a bearish bias, but I know from hard and expensive experience, AMZN is not a stock you want to be careful shorting over earnings. With IV at a whopping 85%, the MMM is well priced into the cost of the options so it's a good candidate to sell premium spreads outside the MMM currently at +/- 22.18.

If the stock does hit the MMM, that puts it potentially at $382 on the upside which is above my T1 or $338 which is above my T2. We have strong support at the 200MA, but the 89 is headed lower resting on T2. I do not think the company will get long term whacked if the report expected or even a slight miss,  so pull backs are good bets for credit spreads above the 21MA on the daily chart or the 89MA.

There was strong volume today on the 340 weekly puts so investors are showing signs they think AMZN will sell off. As you can see, the cost of DOTM calls and puts are so pumped up it's hard to buy in on either side. AMZN does have a track record for making strong moves at earnings as shown below, so we have some good opportunities, but it will take market support to get things really moving on the upside even if they beat. The bias is lower prices, so a gap up that fails to take out T1 is a short opportunity and over T1 is a cautious long

The short interest is light and I do not think investors are all too concerned about selling the company especially since they came out with a smart phone and recently applied to use drones for some deliveries.

Below are the last 4 quarters of earnings and AMZN reaction

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7/14/14 - Another big day of trading in AMZN showing the bulls are all in as the stock raced past the 200MA climbing all day and closing at its high. Now all it has to do is get past the SGB zone and off to the races for new all time highs if earnings are good. Now that we have a major moving average as support, that is the battle ground going forward. I sold my Bull Call Spread for a nice profit today. I still have the Iron Condor on and will close out the

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7/13/14 - Will there be follow through this week on the price explosion in AMZN? Usually there is a pull back test the resolve of the bears, so we will have to wait and see how the stocks opens tomorrow. It did stop dead on the 200MA and if the stock does close over that, then we are looking for a move high if the markets are strong and earnings start kicking in too. I suspect investors may be excited to get in ahead of earnings because AMZN has consistently gotten a pass on weak to no earnings. If the stock holds Friday's rally, then start selling some Bull Put Spreads and we will wait until earnings to fish for some Lotto trades. If the rally continues, then I expect the stock to test my T1 line and or surpass it if earnings are met or exceeded.

The quarterly chart had AMZN in a Bear 180 which tested T3 and bounced right off my T1 last week, so as long as the stock holds over the T1 line the bulls are in control.

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7/12/14 - News that AMZN is applying to the F.A.A for permission to fly Drone Delivery Systems and the stock exploded higher giving HUGE rise to the OTM options!! It pays again and again to just start fishing on OM options under an 8% move and BAM you will catch some huge winning trades over time. I had a Bull Call Spread trade on that made big profits, but dang, I was not fishing in this one yet—I will be taking those profits tomorrow.

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6/30/14 - The news story on CNBC "Amazon Rising" over the weekend, did not give any rise to the stocks price today. The stock is most likely going to trade in a range until the next earnings release so you can consider doing some Iron Condors to collect some Theta premium. I was filled on my OTM Bull Call Debit spread so I will wait to see how the rest of this weeks plays out. Now if AMZN does take a dip, I am a buyer at my T1 line around $310-$312 if the markets are rising. There is three SGB zones overhead and the stock is trading UNDER the 200MA and 89MA which makes is extremely vulnerable to lower prices.

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6/19/14 - New phone but high price so not so sure it will be an iPhone killer; however, it is cool with the 3D display technology along with other cool features. The stock did rally but not enough to really make big profits. Once again the my infamous SGB proved once a gain to be the short signal as AMZN tipped out just under $340 and sold off all day. If the markets take a big turn for the worse tomorrow, I am expecting AMZN to easily fall under $320 so I am fishing for some WW puts hoping for an initial rise and then getting crushed. My Bull Call Spread is not doing well but I plan on adding another Debit Spread tomorrow at the end of trading once I see how AMZN trades on expiration day.

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6/13/14 - Looking ominous for a big move so a straddle ahead of the news release next week is the best bet, but you need to buy more time on the Puts and speculate on the weekly calls. I did not get any WW fill this morning so I cancelled my trade in the first 5 minutes.

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6/12/14 - The good old GS SUCKER PUNCH upgrade strikes again. Like I said below, when GS steps in, you step OUTCH! Well, if you kept fishing, now you can get those 345's for a steal of a deal at $0.05 cents per contract. DO NOT BUY NOW, we needed the two day stretch to get the play working. If you think this current drop in price will not sustain, then buy some $340's for next week, but I would say a strangle may be the better play and that is what I plan to do next week.

Yesterday turned into a SGB, so that is the pivot point for long plays OVER $342 and short entries on failed rallies at $335. My current Bull Call Spread was supposed to be a DEBIT so I apologize if you are confused but now you can get in for a much better price than I did.

I picked up some June2 315 Puts at the close just in case AMZN gets crushed, but I am more inclined to see this as a news driven drop and AMZN could get short squeezed higher tomorrow or into next week.

You may want to try and fish for a call side WW trade on the $330's tomorrow.

 Azm

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510/14 - The news is just too good right now to get any selling; however, AMZN did pause right at the 89MA on the daily chart and 21MA on the weekly chart. If the stock takes that out then the 200MA or the SGB zone above it on the daily is the best target where the stock will stall until the actual 3D phone reveal on the 18th.

AMZN has been upgraded by GS to a Conviction Buy from Buy and we know that means the top is about to be set....lol....the stock is currently up $7.00 in pre-market so we will have to see how the markets are reacting.

The best way to play this one is with Spreads because the calls will pumped up on the excitement so if you are not long yet, then FISH for a lower entry price at least 21 - 34% below the current ASK. DO NOT CHASE, that will only frustrate you to no end.

If you want speculate on a weekly Lotto Play, then wait for the open and hope we get an initial pullback in the first 15 minutes of trading; then we buy the weekly calls 3% OTM which will be the $350 but you want to buy the $345's just in case the stock really takes off and hits the high side of the SGB range at $350, that way you are ITM and have a guaranteed fill when you want to sell.

Current Theoretical value at the open is $2.79 so I would fish for a entry price of $1.25 and hold on if you get filled for the All-or-Nothing Lotto Play.

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5/6/14 - OMG can my timing be any WORSE...arrggghhh! I have a short bias, and, well, news of a new 3D Smart Phone CHANGED THAT today!!

10:27 AM EDT, 06/05/2014 (MT Newswires) -- Amazon (AMZN) is planning to unveil a smart phone with 3D technology at its Seattle headquarters on June 18, various press outlets reported citing an invitation sent out by the e-commerce giant on Wednesday.

I was so pissed off that I did not find out about it until 8am PST, and by then, AMZN was already up $13.00. Needless to say, had I known when the news story broke, I would have been all over this one with 100 contracts.

Look at what the JunWk1 320 calls opened at:

What pains me is I did not have any fishing orders in play and the news was not widely released on CNBC because we had the President on for close to an hour. By the time I noticed AMZN, it was up a whopping $13.00. I jumped in on the $310 Jun Wk1 calls and amazingly I was the TOP for that entry point and the stock immediately pulls back?? I stuck with my trade and managed a small profit because I was freaking stopped out!!!!!!! The rest of the day the stock was just squeezed up higher and higher rising a full $20+ before it pulled back a little bit.

Today was clearly a short squeeze event. The stock just steadily climbed up on a 15 min chart indicating investors were constantly trying to get SHORT. The current news is only a RUMOR and we will not know for sure what they are releasing until the conference on the 18th. This should keep some buying pressure on the stock next week, but I am thinking we may get a 55% retracement tomorrow as investors still want to jump in on the AAPL split.

After all, maybe AAPL is going to be first to release a 3D Smart Phone and AMZN was attempting to get ahead of the curve and steal some AAPL Seeds of Thunder. Remember, this stock trades on Back-To-The-Future projections and they make a whopping 1% profit margin which used to be 2% a year ago. They are reaching into multiple vertical products indicating desperation type marketing tactics. Of course, they could survive it all and ultimately be KING of the planet in retail, so you just have to decide to take the long term ride or play for the short term moves.

As for tomorrow, there will be a lot investors looking to "fade" this move. After all, the guys on Fast Money say to fade right? Well, big money just got the crap squeezed out of them all day so they are burned and pissed off right now probably looking for revenge, so we have to see how the stock reacts to the employment news before we can pick a clear direction.

I am of the opinion that AMZN will continue to squeeze higher if we get an initial drop tomorrow. That is based on how I saw the stock trade today on the 15 minute chart. In fact, it was a perfect 8-train climb all day indicating shorts were attempting to hammer the stock at every turn only to get continually squeezed. I know the feeling, because I saw this exact scenario in AMZN last year and it was a painful losing day for me trying to short several times. At least this time I did not attempt to short all day, I actually got long, but it was too little too late this time around :-(.

Here is what the 15 min chart looked like today:

OK, That's it, No More Missing These Massive White Whale Trades!!!

From now on I will be placing OTM $0.10-0.20 cent orders on multiple stocks every Wed and Thur night. I suggest you fish no higher than $0.20 cent entry points so you can get an excellent cheap entry price just in case things do not work out.—many times you will even get price improvement in a volatile opening.

The goal is to start with 1 contract per order and only add additional contracts when you start to make profits.

Be sure to keep checking the White Whale page for current trade ideas each week because we are sure to catch a few White Whales a month and start making BIG profits so we can ultimately load up on 100 contracts and BANK!$!

Trades like this happen almost every week! We just need to fish in several stocks until we catch a White Whale!!

Profits Up

The donFranko

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5/5/14 - AMZN is now trading under the last SGB so you can entry a bearish trade now, short stock or wait to see if we get a little retest, but as long as the stock trades under the SGB's I am staying short biased.

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5/31/14 - I am looking over charts and AMZN currently closed the week with my infamous SGB short signal so I am going to test the waters next week with a couple of Bear Calls Spreads and will add more bearish plays if the stock falls back under $307.00. If the stock rallies, I want to see it fail the current gap zone it's in before I add more bearish positions.

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2/5/14 - Took profits today in AMZN on the swing trade and still have my BCS in play.

	AMZN	Feb 14	365	Put	1/30/14	Earnings Miss	2	$6.00	$24.00	+18.00	400%	6

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2/2/14 - Great trades going on here. I am expecting a bounce this week if the markets are strong and if not, I think there is still some more selling coming on AMZN.

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1/30/14 - Amazon announced another loss as usual but this time investors were not willing to buy in after hours until the stock took a pretty strong hit from the days pre earnings rally. If you were able to trade in after hours you had quite the swing in price, but it takes guts and experience to make profitable trades in after hours. I am looking for AMZN to fail $400 tomorrow or early next week and then I will get some shorts on.  Until AMZN makes a solid move back over $405.00 I am not interested in getting long other than selling some Naked Puts or Bull Put Spreads. I was not filled on my Calls and when AMZN rallied in the morning, I waited until the close to buy my puts.

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1/29/14 - Earnings time for the stock that defies logic, loses money and keeps expanding to take over the world of retail. AMZN has been getting beat down ahead of this earnings release and that does not make the bulls as stupid optimistic as they usually are. There was a huge 600 Put buy today on the Apr 14 365, so somebody out there is placing a HUGE bet this stock has seen its day and will be heading a lot lower. Remember, this stock has defied logic, the odds and common sense, but this time around, I thin investors will be taking profits so puts are the bias with some calls for the hedge.

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11/4/13 - Testing the post earning gains looking for some definitive signs of a continuation for failure.

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10/29/13 - Nice volatility with AMZN on Friday and today the stock held the line pushing higher. We have a solid bear signal based on the 15 min chart which I have set up on the daily so we can watch for short entry points. If this chart is not the perfect picture for a long I do not know what one is and that concerns me a wee bit. Obvious chart patterns should be noted as contrarian signals because they are too easy for everyone to see and understand; however, crowd mentality can create a stampeded so we go with the trend as it has always been a friend. Just keep some puts on tap as part of your trading plan. It's a pretty forgone conclusion in most traders minds that the Fed will NOT start to taper until late next year or after the new Fed takes over so we should get the usual mumbo jumbo in the meeting tomorrow. Now if that turns out to be the opposite, stocks like AMZN, GOOG, AAPL etc. will see a pretty strong hit so get ready. I have a pretty good amount of SPY puts so I will keep working AMZN to the upside if things go good.

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10/24/13 - Still losing money but stock soars in after hours on future profits...lol...what a stock eh? I know, they will be a huge success on the balance sheet some day right? All I know, is you trade what you get and right now we are looking to get a FAT PAY DAY tomorrow if it holds current price levels in after hours trading. I am ready this time to pounce tomorrow with a WW trade!

Can this stock hit $400 tomorrow or will it get pumped and dumped like NFLX did? We just need it to make a move tomorrow and we get paid. Ok, so the strategy here is to buy put at the open just above today's close and if they slam the stock back down we are in line to catch a Whale! On the call side, we hope for a pull back and then short cover rally like we got with GOOG so we want to buy the $390's and $400's on the dip.

If the stock does fail to gain ground in the first 15 minutes we sell some Bear Call Spreads.

We know the next two months is their sales season and it's looking like they will have a boom and that is what investors are going to key in on when deciding what to do tomorrow. There was not negative events or announcements on the conference call so I do not see any reason for this stock to get crushed but anything can happen so we need to be prepared.

Last quarter, I bought some puts and then calls and then I got cocky and sold the 300 naked calls when the stock began selling off. Problem was, I got the crap kicked out of me when the stock jumped back over $300 and went on a massive $15 squeeze.

My plan this time is if I do sell some Naked Calls once I think the stock will not take out the post market trading highs, then I will sell the Nov Wk 1 365's to collect extra premium. I will use almost all of the value of that premium and buy as many Oct Wk 4 calls no more than two strikes higher than my Naked Calls. That way, if we get that squeeze going again, I make BANK without worrying about covering the Naked Calls until I am at a massive profit. Now if the stock crumbles, I make money on the WW puts and any other puts I buy plus the premium in the Naked Calls will collapse paying me back on the Lotto calls I bought—I will NOT be Amazoned again! 

Note: this is NOT a strategy for small accounts. It can still crush you so do not do it if you cannot absorb a total loss.

Sell 1 - 10 Nov Wk 1 365 Naked Calls

Buy as many Oct Wk 4 370 and 375 Calls as you can based on the amount of premium you take in. DO NOT spend any more than the premium you would get so you can make sure you get paid back on the OTM calls if the stock falls tomorrow.

Expected MMM is currently at +/- $22.17

Blew right past the MMM expected move but it must hold above this move ($345.38) to keep the bulls interested and shorts squeezed.

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10/23/13 - I had my earnings dates mixed up. Tomorrow is AMZN earnings and investors were scared off today with negative news they may miss this time bigger than expected and get a move lower. Hmm, sounds like the typical manipulations to me. I mean, really, come out with negative news statements the day before earnings? Fishy, very fishy. Either way, I plan to have puts and calls in place and I will be doing a WW trade on Friday. Get ready to make some Profits UP!!

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10/21/13 - Nice move today ahead of earnings tomorrow. Chart pattern suggests AMZN will head higher but we have seen what NFLX did on a beat. Tough one to call on this one but I have the calls and will pick up some $305 puts tomorrow.

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10/21/13 - Can AMZN get a pass again and again on earnings misses? Looking at the daily chart today, you would already think they announced earnings and gapped up. Well, the big question for me is if investors have any money left to spend on AMZN. With CMG, GOOG, NFLX and soon AAPL, I am not so sure AMZN will have a huge move. If we see GOOG and CMG getting dumped tomorrow, then we should be on for a solid move in AMZN. If CMG, GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all power higher, it's going to take a solid beat to lift AMZN this time in my estimation. I remember last time, the stock took off and then pulled back the next day only to be short squeezed mercilessly all day back over $300 a share.  This time, will be ready after earnings are announced.  

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9/27/13 - Not doing anything with AMZN until earnings  

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9/8/13 - Nice rally off the 89MA and T3. If you followed my suggestion, then you should have made some nice premium on Naked Puts or Bull Put Spreads. I have not been active in AMZN since I have some many other positions on so I backed off until the next earnings season begins.

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8/27/13 - When that SGB showed up on Friday this T3 bounce became a Dead Cat Bounce. We are now at a major support at the 89MA on the daily and the 21MA on the weekly chart. If the markets continue to slide, then AMZN will follow suit.  I will be watching to see how it trades off these moving averages looking for some opportunities to sell some PUT premium.

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8/22/13 - Selling is over and AMZN bounced off T3, time to get long and stops just under T3. If you buy options, then pick up half and fish for the other half 55% below your entry prices.

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8/18/13 - Nice week of selling in AMZN and with Thursday's gap down, we could still see some more downside action to the 89MA. As long as AMZN is under T3 I am waiting because the rebound should be a strong one. I am looking for the Bull 180 set up here. With news that AMZN is moving into the retail Food distribution business with Amazon Fresh. This is an ambition endeavor and they have the financial and distribution muscle to implement this. It will take a long time to build infrastructure and distribution channels. Currently it is only offered in LA, Seattle. As this rolls out and if it becomes a success, you will see AMZN price move MUCH higher over time. Not so sure this news can move it dramatically over the short term, but it can add value to the company's bottom line and drive future projections=much higher share price!

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8/15/13 - What can I say, I am the technical genius again and again! AMZN made the final pull back as I predicted and EXACTLY touched down closing today on my T3 line. We should now see a bounce start tomorrow or early next week with any market rebound. Any dip tomorrow and I am picking up some calls.

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8/13/13 - AMZN has been sliding lower every day and has now taken out T2. I am expecting this selling to still continue the rest of the week with T3 being my ultimate support target.

AMZN has pulled back over 55% from last months high, but can still pull back 55% from it's close putting support at, you guessed it, a direct hit at my T3!

My plan is to see if AMZN attempts a rally tomorrow back to T2 and then I will pick up some more puts.

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8/8/13 - AMZN attempted to hold $295 on Friday but I think it is still vulnerable to more selling if the markets make the turn lower next week which happens to be Aug expiration so expect some volatility. I will be adding some more Puts if AMZN does pop back up this week and fails to get over my T1 line. My 300 puts are still profitable so I am putting in a break even stop.

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8/8/13 - Momentum picked up today but AMNZ managed a slight comeback closing above my T2 target. I still have a week on my puts so I am sticking with them and adding more if the stock gets back over $300-$305.

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8/7/13 - Below $300 and picking up some steam! My puts are making some profits but I need this stock to really get busy and DROP some more tomorrow. The Berar 180 T2 is about to be tested most likely tomorrow and if we do not have market support to the downside, AMZN will most likely stage an attempt to retest $300 this week. Not what I am hoping to see but it is what it is, I still have another week on my puts. I plan on picking up some more short plays on any failed rally under $305.00

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8/2/13 - AMZN started to head back down this morning and I was licking my chops in anticipation of a crush but that was not the case so all my puts expired worthless this round. I also jumped on some 300's this morning for a Lotto play. I had a $380 profit for about 5 minutes but I wanted MORE so I held on and that was that.

I still have my AUG13 puts so if AMZN makes a move lower next week, then I will buy some more.

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8/1/13 - First day of Aug trading and the markets explode to new All Time Highs again! Tomorrow is an important nonfarm payroll that will be a catalyst for the new direction. A surprise announcement and we go higher taking AMZN with it, a bad report and I expect AMZN to dive under $300 which is what I need tomorrow to save my weekly puts. I still have my Aug puts so I am looking forward to those kicking in and if not, that's the way things go...can't win them all.

If AMZN makes a move back over $310, then I will start selling some premium to start collecting back my losses on these trades that did not work out.

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7/31/13 - AMZN closes July trading with profit taking after an impressive short covering rally off Bad earnings? This stock always seems to go against common sense but I am hopeful it will drop below $300 soon. My challenge is it will most likely not fall enough this week to make my puts any profits. I think my Aug expiration have a strong chance but we will see. The stock is back under T1 so if it stays under that its a SHORT.

I closed out my Bear Call spread for a nice profit and I am will be looking to sell some more premium if AMZN does drop under $300

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7/26/13 - Shorts forced to cover on multiple upgrade BS and general momentum as AMZN puts in a new All time closing high today. I expect this euphoria to wear off and profit taking to kick in next week as earnings season winds down.

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7/25/13 - AMZN misses earnings estimates for 3 out of 4 quarters in the past year; however, revenue rose 22%.

Is this  a 3x whammy charm for AMZN and investors finally hit the sell button vs. buy buy buy no matter what loss it makes? We won't know for sure until tomorrow, but in after hours the stock is down (7.95) so it's certainly looking like it.

This stock trades at ridiculous multiples so it can easily fall a good 10% over the next few days to a week or so. The daily chart  has a good 13 Candlestick Bear 180 setup and the since that signal, AMZN has traded sideways for the past 8 days with today rallying exactly to my T1 target. If the selling kicks in tomorrow, then I expect AMZN to reach T3 tomorrow since it is already trading at T2 in after hours.

Because this stock is so well liked, any dips can and most likely be bought up. I plan on fishing for a couple of WW AugWk1 Calls too.

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4/26/13 - CHA-CHING!!!!!! Bagged another White Whale!!!!!!!!!!!!! AMZN Started to move up and then it was CRUSHED!

All my put strikes BANKED!!!!

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4/25/13 - AMZN Beats but sales fall short.

Amazon (AMZN) reported much-better-than-expected first-quarter earnings late Thursday, but shares retreated 2.5% as sales fell short and heavy spending continued on fulfillment centers and other investments...

Revenue of $16.07 billion just missed analyst views of $16.144 billion.

After hours trading has another White Whale trade setting up but most likely not a strong as AAPL. In after hours trading, AMZN did run up to $290 which was well over the SGB back in late Jan but sold off hard after the conference call closing UNDER that SGB...very bearish and we could be in for a multi-day sell off especially if the markets turn too.

I will be looking for a White Whale trade with my bias on the Put side. If we do start to sell off I will pick up a MayWk1 $255 Put.

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4/25/13 - Tonight AMZN reports earnings and win or lose this stock defies logic and keeps going higher based on the future. They sell just about everything, so in the minds of investors, they will be very profitable some day over the rainbow way up high...in the future. How can you fight that kind of logic—it certainly would have Spock  scratching his ears...lol.

I have found this stock difficult to trade ahead of earnings because the options are more than overpriced with implied volatility, so the best (safest) bet is to sell premium on a small contract basis and then tomorrow we fish for the White Whale trade!

The expected move for AMZN is:

So that can put this stock up at $295 or down to $255. If you want to buy options, then buy strikes UNDER or ABOVE to give you the best chance of being in the money since they expire tomorrow. If you want speculate, then buy the $300 Calls or $250 Puts.

I am going to buy a $300 Butterfly spread because if this stock does move higher, I am expecting it to rally to $300...a benchmark price.

Ok so what does the chart tell me? Common sense says to SHORT, but AMZN does not trade off common sense, so whatchya gonna do? All my experience says to buy puts and my gut says to buy something on AMZN...lol.

Hmmm...how do we make a bet with this stock?

Look to the past my trading friends and you can discover the path to moneyLIGHTenment!

Historically, AMZN sells off more than it rises; however the selling is controlled, so buying put options is not a strong bet, but selling options (spreads) can be. When the stock does sell off, it lasts for more than a couple of days vs. a big gap down, so if you are buying puts, I would pick up some MayWk1—AMZN also offers you mini-options so you do not have to risk as much capital—just buy puts inside the expected move.

Once we see how the stock reacts to earnings, I will be on the hunt for a White Whale trade. This stock can move around a bit; however, I believe the upside will be controlled because it's in striking distance of $300. What I want to see is a gap up crushing the puts giving me a sweet .01 - .10 cent entry and then a sell off so we can BANK because stocks typically drop farther and faster than they will go up!