Entry is Key...Exit is Everything! ^TM

Stock ticker symbol: BBRY

Current Price: $10.46

Change: -4.02  (CRUSHED)

52-week high: $18.32

52-week low: $6.22

Next Earnings: 

6/28/13 MISSED BIG TIME

Trade Type:

Long Puts

Long Calls

Symbol

Month

Strike

Type

Date

Strategy

Qty

Entry

Exit

P/L

ROI%

Days

BBRY

Stock

Stock

Long

Stock

6/13/13

Bull 180

500

14.32

-

-

-

BBRY

Jul13

13.00

Naked

Put

6/25/13

Bull 180

3

0.67

Credit

-

-

-

CLOSED TRADES   

BBRY

JulWk4

18

Call

6/26/13

Earnings

Speculation

10

.05

0

-0.05

(100%)

BBRY

JulWk4

11.50

Put

6/27/13

Earnings

100

.05

1.20

+1.15

+2300%

1

BBRY

Jul13

14.00

Naked

Put

6/13/13

Bull 180

10

1.27

Credit

-

-

-

6/28/13 - RIM posts larger-than-expected loss, shares plunge. BlackBerry-maker posts 1Q loss, warns of future losses, shares plunge

NICE LOTTO TRADE ON BBRY PUTS!!!

The selling stopped just above $10 and now it needs to climb back to the SGB zone where I plan to get short again so long as it does not trade above it.

Quarterly chart shows H&S pattern neckline is about to be broken....look out below.

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6/27/13 - Just when I was ready to quit this stock, news stories, upgrades and the earnings run off a Bull 180 setup takes this stock off to nice gains all week. Today investors dumped it ahead of earnings but if the stories are accurate and RIMM indeed surprises, there will be a massive short covering rally. I did close out my puts on Monday and when BBRY took off I sold a few more but a lower strike. I also bought some JuneWk4 18 calls yesterday and some $11.50 puts today. Earnings are before the bell so you will have to see how the stock opens and jump in. If they have a great quarter with strong sales and subscriber growth, sell Naked Puts. DO NOT buy calls because they will be way too pumped up with premium. Put in fishing orders 55% below the open price and try to buy cheaper. If they have a bad quarter sell Naked Calls.

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6/23/13 - I have been looking over BBRY this weekend, and I am beginning to lose confidence in this stock. If it opens up this week, I will exit my naked puts, and if it continues to slide lower, I will start accumulating some puts and buy back most of my naked put position. On Thursday, I will pick up some Lotto puts ahead of Friday's earnings. I plan on holding onto my 500 shares either way.

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6/20/13 - Back to T1 for a final test. The SGB on the daily chart proved once a gain to be the most reliable short signal I have used in a long time. It has worked out so well it makes me nervous because I want to up my size when I see one and Murphy is just sitting out there ready to kick my ass when I do...lol. I will start to increase size to test my theory out in the future. I need BBRY to hold ground at T1 or we could be in for some heavy selling down to the 200MA. I rolled out my $14 naked puts to July extending my time for the stock to find itself and giving me some more premium to boot. Earnings are coming up in one week, so I am anticipating a rally into that event and if they have an excellent quarter, its party time. If they miss it's a SHORT big time.

The monthly chart is U.G.L.Y!

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6/16/13 - The Bull 180 reached T3 pulling back into an SGB for the day. If BBRY does not get a move back over the high of this SGB then this rally will be short lived and a test of T1 is likely.

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6/13/13 - Bull 180 has started. I did not expect it to happen that fast, but I jumped on some long shares and sold some naked Jun13 14.00 puts.

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6/12/13 - Back to the T4 with another direct touch down! If this one holds, get LONG and if it falls under the SGB on the weekly chart we could see BBRY drop under the 200MA on the daily chart. Now that this stock has sold off 6 weeks, we are in Bull 180 mode, so let's keep an eye out for a weekly green bar to start a long.

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6/5/13 - I am a charting genius! BBRY dropped EXACTLY to my T4 target!!! We should be near a bottom as this stock should be gearing up for the next earnings run.

My calls were a bust, but I am looking for the next play soon. If you want to test the waters, you can pick up a couple Jun13 calls now.

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5/16/13 - So far the rumor is just that and investors have Sold the Rumor waiting on the news. BBRY has not pulled back to T3 which is also the 89MA on the daily chart. We need a bounce and a confirmation the Icahn is in, then BBRY will make the sustained move higher.

I will sell the puts tomorrow at the open if BBRY shows any strength and if its weak I will see how it looks after 15 minutes.

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5/9/13 - Rumors that Karl Icahn is buying into the stock started a fire, so I took off my shorts for a break even. I still have the puts and will watch the stock for a couple of days. I am going to fish with some June $20 calls.

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5/6/13 - Tried to rally today and it was crushed back down all day! I did not take the stop at $15.90 because I saw it topping out, so I am still short but I moved the stop to $15.75 and I WILL take that if BBRY does make the rise back up.

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5/3/13 - Looking for T2 stop in at $15.90

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5/1/13 - BEAR 180 in play!

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4/30/13 - More positive news has kept buying pressure on this stock and the Bear 180 was not executed. We are now in the 8th day giving us a stronger entry point so if BBRY shows me a red bar tomorrow under today's high, I will short with a strict stop at today's high.

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4/25/13 - Still sticking with what I have. BBRY is currently a Bear 180, so if you want to short it place stop at $15.45.

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4/21/13 - For now, I am just sticking with my short position and Bear Call Spread.

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4/18/13 - Very bearish chart pattern and the weekly chart has NO support until $10.20.

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4/17/13 - So far the 89MA is still proving to be the major resistance. My $16 calls hedge will expire worthless most likely. My BCS is still making money as the premium melts away. 

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4/16/13 - Testing the 89MA and the 8MA on the daily and weekly charts. Today was a small SGB so we could be in for the ride lower soon.

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4/15/13 - A little break in the continued selling.

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4/13/13 - We have a breakdown, gap down and 89MA failure...oh, and the CEO is pissed off that some obscure analyst is bagging on them with alleged convoluted stories there are more returns than sells going on. All this uncertainty will keep selling pressure on this stock unit a full earnings report that will put the proverbial nail in the coffin of BBRY. The only thing that will keep this stock from a total meltdown is the lurking possibility of a buyout but I am still going to SHORT IT, sell Bear Call spreads and just keep some OTM calls running.

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4/11/13 - This berry tree is getting plucked! News that consumers are returning the BB10 phones give investors all the news they needed to dump the stock. The selling did stop at the 21MA on the weekly chart but with the way the chart has been converging and now the gap down, I suspect there can be more downside coming. Most likely target is $12.00 range. I did some day trading today and banked some nice profits so now I will be looking for my next entry to make a whole lot more. If the markets take a turn for the worse tomorrow, BBRY should also continue and the next drop can be bigger than this one so if you want to speculate on some Lotto Plays the AprWk2 $13.00 are $0.07 cents a contract.

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4/10/13 - Up down and sideways. BBRY almost got me back to a break even on my short shares and with today's massive all markets wide rally, BBRY showed no interest in going higher. That is a good thing for now and I am confident this stock will continue to slip lower. I have my hedge on just in case there is a surprise take over announcement so I will just add more short shares to adjust for any money I spend on the calls.

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4/3/13 - Things were looking great for my short position and then an old rumor of a Lenovo buyout surfaced again causing the stock to short cover most of the day. I bought some weekly calls for an insurance hedge, but I am still sticking to my short and if BBRY begins to sell of tomorrow, I will ad d more short shares. I will just keep some OTM calls going on this stock week to week. If the solid green bars are accurate, then BBRY WILL go down and the only thing to change that would be a buyout bid.

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4/1/13 - BBRY was upgraded again today by some small firm. Looks like they may be trying to manipulate the stock so they can sell to the suckers. I bought back my $14 puts for a profit and still have the BCS and short stock. Now that the "news" is over, BBRY only has a potential buyout event to move it a lot higher. For now I will stick to my positions and look to add more if BBRY fails to take out $15.50.

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3/28/13 -  Well earnings were good but not a blowout, and so the stock gyrated in pre market then sold off all day. Once I saw it was not going higher after the first 15 minutes, I jumped on some calls and  puts to make up for my failed lotto trades. I also put on a multi-leg spread to collect some premium over the next 50 days.

I sold a Bear Call Spread and added a Naked Put to make more money. I am willing to get BBRY put to me and if that happens, I will take assignment and sell covered calls.

I still have 500 shares short as well.

Here were my day trades in BBRY today:

Note: When trading for options Lotto, you have to realize it takes a very large move in the stock to make these plays profitable. Typically it takes 10% or more to make you the biggest gains. I am very accurate in the stocks I trade, but sometimes my timing is off, when I post my trade ideas on Wednesday or Thursday for Friday's trading. In this case they did not work out; however, I did make an adjustment after the open; and once I believed RIMM was going down, I placed additional trades and made a nice book of profits.

So, with that said, if you want to tweak my Lotto trade ideas, then, depending on your risk tolerance and capital, you would just buy 50% on Thursday and then trade in the direction of the stock after the open on Friday—I usually watch the pre-market and then wait for the first 15 minutes unless there is an unusually high gap I will watch the first 5 minutes.

I am always looking to overweight my positions with short puts vs. going long calls because a stock will fall much further and faster than it will go up and when you are trading on expiration day, you need a lot more volatile moves to make these options profitable—and an iron stomach too!

Here is the chart for the $15 Put strike price to show you what I mean:

Here is what it looked like on the 15 min chart

Here is what the 15 Puts did:

I placed one of my BBRY Lotto trades on Thursday, but I was definitely early and paid a lot for it. I was expecting a much larger move on BBRY than we got; and when the stock opened up on Friday and did not move higher than the pre market high, I moved in and bought new put position. As you can see, BBRY moved lower all day and these options more than doubled  giving me a nice recovery profit to pay for the previous entry.

This type of trading takes years of experience and quick action, so there is NO WAY I can post these trades live...I am way too busy managing them myself.

If you do not have the ability to do this type of trading, then just stick to the Wednesday or Thursday entries and know that 75% or more will result in a zero-sum-gain, but when the winners come in, you will more than make up for the losing trades over time.

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3/27/13 10:52 AM- BBRY Earnings are BEFORE the market opens tomorrow. I will be adding more to my straddle today. I covered half my short position and added more calls and puts. Friday the markets are closed so you will have to take your profits tomorrow if you get them.

Estimated move is +- 1.56 but I think the stock can move a lot more than that if the news is spectacular. There is a ton of short interest so if they surprise the stock should jump pretty high.

Here are all of my positions:

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3/26/13 - Slipping down lower yesterday but found some buyers and bounced off the 100MA. Today, there was NO follow through so I shorted some stock and bought some calls and puts. I will add more on Thursday before the market close in anticipation of a big move from earnings.

If I get a profit tomorrow on the stock I will take it and use that money to buy my options.

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3/23/13 - What a turn of events for BBRY today. When news story on CNBC hit that sales were lack luster, the stock started to turn down and I jumped on board! Banked a nice profit today too!!

So what is on deck for next week? Well for starters, BBRY will be reporting quarterly earnings Thursday the 28th and if they miss, oh that's gonna hurt. Of course, if the reports kick in that sales are actually going strong and the company beats, the shorts will cover and we are off to the races. I am going to straddle this stock on Monday with Apr options and speculate with weekly puts and calls. Since BBRY is capable of dropping $5 in a week, I will be looking to get buy the MarWk5 12 or 12.50 Puts and MarWk5 16.50 or 17 calls depending on how the stock trades Monday morning.

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3/19/13 - So far BBRY is holding ground at $15.00 but today's solid green bar is not making me too confident; however, with earnings coming, I anticipate it will stay above $15 by Friday. If not, I will roll out to next month.

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3/18/13 - Sold the $14.50 Naked puts this morning when it traded over $15.00

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3/15/13- Nice to see BBRY closed at $14.99 which would have made my naked puts ITM but I closed them a couple of days ago locking in my profits. I will look for my next play this coming week. with earnings coming out on the 28th, there should be some action in this stock leading up to that event. If they miss, the stock has a high probability of getting decimated so I plan on having a straddle Lotto Play in place. For now, I will sell some more premium via  Bull Put Spreads or Naked Puts if BBRY holds $15.00 on Monday.

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3/11/13 -   CHA-CHING!! I did not expect to get the full move today but wow, what a nice day to trade BBRY. I closed out both my naked puts and captured 85% of the profits when BBRY stopped just under $15.00. I think this stock could very well gap up tomorrow and keep on going, but I am not taking any chances and will just day trade the stock from here.  Now that the stock has moved a whopping 14% today, I will look for a pull back to get some longs going. If BBRY fails to hold the 21MA on the daily chart, I will dump my position. The reason for this decision is because the 21MA is actually ABOVE the 8ma and until they converge and cross back over each other, this stock is subject to a sucker punch setup.

The big news for the move today was the announcement that they will release their new Z10 phone through ATT early. Plus the rumors of a possible buyout by Lenovo is popping up. I am ALWAYS suspicious when buyout rumors are pumped then dumped and pumped again around pivotal points in a stocks price. If you look at the last two times BBRY put in this big of a bull elephant bar, there was quite a bit of follow through to the upside. The good news is the stock did close at the top of its trading range today and is currently trading at $15.10 in post market hours!

Get your long plays on but only spend money you are prepared to lose and DO NOT put in a stop loss because the volatility is extremely high and you WILL get taken out of your positions if you do. If you want to control more for less, do Bull Put Spreads. When we get closer to earnings release, buy OTM PUTS because if they miss, it's going to be a disaster.

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3/10/13 -   This week will be the one that determines if BBRY will carve a road to new heights or just get carve up. Earnings are coming on the 25th and I suspect there will be some sort of an earnings run. I am hopeful it starts early this week; otherwise, I will have to roll out of my NP to April expiration. If they miss earnings, this stock is going to get whacked so any move close to $15 and I am closing my trade. If I am still in it by earnings I will buy protective puts just in case things get really ugly.

Ok so the good news for BBRY is they are selling more Z10 phones at a faster pace than expected and on Mar 22nd they will be releasing the phone for sale in the US. This should definitely put some buying pressure on the stock heading in to that event, but there will no doubt be a fight to flight with the bears. Currently the short interest in the stock is up 43% over the last six months making the current total short interest a whopping 28% of the stocks float. This can be very good news for long players because if the company does knock earnings out of the park, we could see another potential NFLX type move higher.

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3/5/13 - The markets are winning and BBRY is slipping lower and lower. That means if the markets make a change for the downside, BBRY will most likely accelerate lower too. Well, that's not what I want, but if it does, I am fully prepared to take ownership of any shares that would get put to me. Last week, I was definitely in danger of having that happen so I rolled out of my weekly options and into Mar13 monthly options. Also, when BBRY was moving to $14.00 I bought back 5 of my 20 contracts at a slight profit to lessen the load.

BBRY is definitely looking like it will test the 100MA especially since its had three consecutive days of moving lower. The weekly chart also put in that dreaded solid green bar indicating lower prices too. It's looking like the 100MA on the daily and the 20MA on the weekly will be the battle ground for the future direction of this stock.

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2/27/13 - A market wide rally finally lifted BBRY back into safe zone for me. In fact, both of my Naked Puts came all the way back to a profit so I bought back 5 of my contracts just in case this was a short covering event and we get the slam down the rest of the week.

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2/26/13 - Well, BBRY is testing major support, and if it fails, then I will definitely be at risk of having my Naked Shares put to me.   No biggie because I would gladly own this stock; and if I do happen to get the put to me, I will immediately sell an April covered calls and collect more rent.

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2/19/13 - BBRY made a valiant attempt to get back to $15.00 in early morning trading today but failed to achieve the goal. The stock took a pretty strong dip in afternoon but managed to find some support at the opening price. If BBRY does not stay above $14 I am looking for a return to sub $12. I have my insurance puts in place so I would love to see the stock make a strong move to $11 which would make me a tidy profit and I will just buy back my Naked Puts and wait for another entry to sell premium again.

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2/16/13 - I am back in the game with BBRY only this time I sold Naked Puts and will take assignment of the shares if I have to. I was excited to see the stock bottom at $13 on Thursday and make an impressive move higher above $15.00 so I sold naked puts all ready to make some easy money on Friday, but noooooo, some analyst puts out an opinion about some firm making it possible for iPads to be used in government because some company out there figured out how to make the iPad secure enough. Well, as you may know, the government is the BIGGEST customer BBRY has and so that could mean (down life's road) they will lose the monopoly market share in that sector. That was the strongest leg they have to stand on, so now the stock makes a 100% reversal and gives back all the ground it made yesterday.

Now I am not so confident I will be making any quick money with this position; however, I rolled out to Mar and picked up more time and premium just in case. I am hedged down to $12.00 and I plan on buying 60 contracts of the FebWk4 puts as some insurance just in case the stock takes a whacking this coming week. Long-term I think BBRY can get back over $15.00 one more time, so if it does, I am going to definitely exit the NP and look for confirmation it's "back on track" for new/old glory hole territory. If I do happen to get assigned, I will immediately sell covered calls and manage my way through the swings just selling more premium until I get any losses recovered.

Profits Up!

The donFranko

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2/11/13 - Failed to hit $18.00 last week and now today's close is a perfect DOJI. It's anybody's guess from here, so if you want to play this stock, you just need to pick a straddle and overweight the puts.

I exited my long stock play at the open today and will be looking for a move back over $16.00 before I get long stock again.

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2/7/13 - Nice 5.67% gain today! Looking like it will definitely be attempting a takeout of $18.00, but if the stock fails to do that, I will be all over a short!

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2/6/13 -  So far BBRY is holding ground at $16.00, but any market direction change to the downside can easily pull this stock with it. I want to see this stock keep moving higher, but until the massive weekly elephant sell bar is taken out, it's anybody's guess for now. I have my stock stop in place at $15.00 and the options I am playing are speculation for and I have a stop in place at what I paid for them.

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2/4/12 - The new symbol is BBRY and the stock celebrated it with a 15% move today! I sold the puts at the open and got long the stock.

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2/3/13 - Will RIMM find a bottom here? Well, that depends on the memory of traders because we will really never know since they company will start trading as BlackBerry and the new symbol will be announced soon. Ok, so what will that mean for the future? Well, a lot of people will view this as a quasi new IPO or Reboot of the company. I am sure RIMM is hopeful that this will be more like a caterpillar in cocoon stage and soon to be a beautiful butterfly ready to take on the world. Question is, will it truly be a beautiful butterfly or a moth headed for the light of death. Of course, only time will tell that tale, so in the meantime, we trade "what is" and look for opportunities to scalp profits.

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1/30/13 - Wow, talk about a sell the news event. RIMM's big release day of the new Blackberry 10 was as expected and since there are really no big announcement, the stock was massively dumped all day. My puts are BANKING and it's looking like the selling is just going to continue. RIMM will be changing their name to BlackBerry and also the ticker symbol...a reboot if you will.

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1/28/13 - Panic setting in before the big release day? RIMM sold off all day today picking up momentum rapidly in the morning trading and then continued the slide lower after lunch. I jumped on some weekly puts and have a nice trade started.

Somebody must know or think they know something about the upcoming release. Typically, a stock will run up into a product announcement or news or earnings and then get sold off the day of the release —buy the rumor...sell the news. Apparently today its dump the stock before the news, and this makes for a LOTTO trade!

If they have a stellar launch, this stock could find a new can of rocket fuel and launch for the old highs in the 30's so what I will be looking for tomorrow and Wed. is those cheap OTM options hoping I get another NFLX type event. Of course I do not expect anything near NFLX (which I will be talking about the rest of my trading life) but if RIMM does get that frenzy short covering event, I do expect a very nice return.

I am also going to buy some puts because its a given that if the stock fails to meet expectations, it a DOA stock and nothing will save it but a buyout. Either way, you have to buy more time for a straddle type trade to work out.

So, if they get rave reviews and strong product debut, you should see a nice short covering rally and growth in the stock price. If they disappoint, the stock will definitely head lower; however, there are potential buyers out there for the company so you have to short with caution (that means keep OTM calls running) because an announcement (usually before the markets open) will produce a massive GAP UP event and crush your short position— I usually prefer to just buy a straddle and see what happens over time.

Profits Up!

The donFranko