CMG Trade Ideas

4/28/18 - OMG it was a Moby Dick Lotto Trade for CMG!!! That is, if you were applying my proven formula and laying the fishing nets. I feel I really let down my subscribers, because I was looking for this trade on Monday and at the time the options were way too expensive and by Wednesday, I was unable to get to my computer and calculate for it...well...NEVER AGAIN!

As for you reading this, you MUST master the Lotto Strategy formula and apply it to all of your "go to" stocks every week; then on earnings cycles, if any of the hot stocks match just BUY BUY BUY multiple strikes 15-20% otm and hope you harpoon a Moby Dick like this one!!$$!!

STUDY these charts below and BURN the indicators into your memories so you can be prepared to catch Moby Dick again in the future because it WILL HAPPEN AGAIN!!!!

5. Utilizing the Carter Squeeze indicator on the TOS Platform, do you see the "red dots" on a "daily" chart?

6. GREED is GOOD if all these line up...BUY BUY BUY multiple strikes and get ready!

The post market trading pushed the stock beyond the MMM expected move; and thus the continuation into Friday was a strong probability!

As you can see, any of these strikes paid HUGE but the biggest winner was the $405 calls which fits my strategy formula to a T!

The goal with my strategy is to build your account large enough to afford at least a 100 contract load; and you WILL wake up to a HUGE 6-FIGUARE profit in the future!

REMEMBER: Results like this are not typical but DO happen a couple times per year, so you need to build a stockpile of smaller Lotto Trades so you can speculate with bigger size when setups like this happen!

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10/25/16 - Miss and guided lower. Stock when bonkers in post trading as the Market Makers just ripped both sides a new one before settling down to the low side at $397.50. Ok, so will this be perceived as expected and the hit is over so they have blue skies ahead or the loves affaire with CMG is now DOA for growth multiples, slowing revenue and possibly store reductions? You have to figure out what the institution are thinking...not what you or ma and pa are thinking. The best way I have discovered that is when there are SGB's and yesterday was a big one that stopped UNDER a previous zone so the bias is definitely down if CMG pops-n-drops tomorrow. My plan is to WW fish the $400 strike initially and watch to see what happens at yesterday's SGB. Bottom line is you must fish for entry points and take profits on half at break even then you can get a free roll to a potential huge trade.

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10/25/16 - CMG has been on a crazy roller coaster rise since my last comments and this quarterly report is going to be pivotal for the stock going forward. All the past food scare should have worn off by now so the tell-tail sign will be same store sales and customer retention. Did CMG gain previous customer confidence or is this the END of their reign as a king of the "healthy" specialty fast food destination. I went down to my local restaurant over the weekend for some dinner and it was a total DEAD ZONE compared to pre-food scare when the lines were 20+ deep. I have heard on CNBC that the buzz on FB is CMG is back but we will soon seen if that is the case. I have to say, I have not eaten there for months and when I did, it was really GOOD so I plan to visit again on a regular basis because there is still very few choices in the "Healthy" category and I am getting tired of eating LOCO all the time even though it is good too.

This stock can move big so I am speculating with DOTM calls and puts for tomorrow and the will trade direction in after hours and sell spreads post earnings once I see how the market reacts. Today there were NO big contract bets placed so I will be on the look out tomorrow to see where some speculators are placing bets if any. Puts are 9,300 vs. calls at 7,400 so a surprise beat will start a stampeded higher; therefore, my bias will be on the call side. Today the stock put in a SGB UNDER a previous SGB and last time the stock only went up about $25.00 which was the MMM so this time it could be a bigger move as many investors may be selling premium at the MMM anticipating the same result so the Market Makers will be looking to squeeze them if the open interest is high. Speaking of squeezing, the weekly chart is in a fired squeeze indicating higher prices to come and with 21 weeks of sideways trading, this stock is ready to make a move.

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9/6/16 - Today in after hours it was announced that Bill Ackman's hedge fund Pershing Square took a 9.9% stake in the company and that news shot up shares as high as $450.00 in after hours trading. This is a significant bit of news and should put a solid bottom base on the stock so my plan is to start selling weekly Naked Put premium and Bull Call Spreads. This stock has been hanging around multiple SGB zones for a while and that explains why it did not drop into sub $400 oblivion—the stock was being accumulated.

Now that they are "bought" in, it does not necessarily mean CMG can hold ground here; after all, Bill Ackman is a bit of an activist investor and now that his fund is estimated to be on of the top 3 holders of the stock, he could muck things up with demands and changes etc. I suspect there will be some good movement tomorrow and the rest of the week, so I will be fishing for day trades and laying orders as we move forward. Upside targets are the weekly 200MA around $523 and down side support will be at the previous SGB zone around $421.00

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4/25/16 - This stock is still damaged goods, but that is quick to change if they report a positive quarter and show a strong return of customers; otherwise, the party is over and money will look for other up and coming growth stocks as CMG multiples fade. Trading short term puts and long term DOTM calls is the way I will be going on this stock for now. Since the big "scare" I have only eaten there one time and before I was a regular customer. When I went, the place was almost empty whereas before it was standing room only. The charts are suggesting support is being found at the $400 area, but we need a very positive quarter and strong forward guidance to really get things going again.

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2/9/16 - No follow through on that upside post earnings move so selling just accelerated once that SGB was confirmed. Tomorrow is the begging of a 2-day FOMC meeting and I am sure NO ONE is looking to commit capital until that is over. CMG now has a huge road of recovery ahead of itself and it will not likely rise to it's glory for a couple of quarters if ever now that its been severely whacked. There will always be downside anxiety moving forward but as the company moves more corporate mainstream with it's product it will also lose that love affair with the healthy eating crowd which is its majority customer. I think the love affair with this stock is over and the only thing left for them to do is pay a dividend, split or slip away to mediocrity in the multiple-high trading club. The monthly chart is a classic Bearish Engulfing candle at this moment and it that holds, then CMG is easily headed to $400 before it hits $500 so I am looking for shorts under $460 and spreads over $460.00 for the next couple of quarters.

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2/3/16 - Some nice moves down filling my WW 490 calls and then a powerful rally all day getting me a good profit.

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2/2/16 - Some crazy moves in after hours today. Initially CMG jammed up to $504 and by the end of the conference call it was slammed back down to $433 before finishing out at $447. If you tried to trade in after hours then you were definitely pulling your hair out because it was swinging around $10+ just about every minute. The earnings were a miss on revenue (expected) and the overall outlook was hopeful so investors are not too confident this stock will gain back all its market share for this year and most likely this stock is still damaged good. I am thinking it may just be a nice WW trade opportunity tomorrow so I am fishing for some calls in the morning.

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2/1/16 - News that the CDC will be announcing a case closed on their investigation with CMG. Earnings are tomorrow so we should see some movement no matter what they say. Today was a SGB DOJI so investors are definitely on the fence. Options are really expensive so getting in is NOT recommended for the small account traders. I am anticipating a rally on the news and will trade in the long direction.

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1/28/16 - Earnings are coming and CMG has been holding the line at $440 so this could be the bottom. This report will be the insight to how the eColi impacted sales and we already know they will report a miss; however, the severity of that miss is the mystery. I was hoping for a split announcement back at the ICR conference, but most the time companies do split announcements at earnings so we can still get that surprise and it would lift the stock up nicely. The bull 180 from two weeks ago is still in play so the upside target right now is $500+ and split could drive it to well over $550.

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1/17/16 - What a great week we had with CMG, the stock moved over $76.00 for the week and it looks good to move all the way back to $600 in the coming weeks or months. What would be ideal is the company splits their stock and that it can really explode higher but who knows if that will happen in the near future or maybe never. We will keep fishing for great entry points because the IV will be wild because all those investors who got whacked and have not bought in again are NERVOUS and will be taking profits every 3-5% the stock moves.

We know the company pre-announced earnings are going to be bad, so once the news is actually release, the price most likely will rise if market conditions are good and there is no more negative news. Now that we have a solid Bull 180 working on the weekly chart, we need to take profits at each T-Level and sell premium spreads and also fish for lower entry points. I am anticipating CMG can make it way back to at least $600 in the near term.

I hope you were able to get in on this Moby Dick Lotto trades this week and if not, do not worry, there is ALWAYS another one coming and I will find it for you!!

For longer term plays, we have a nice Hammer Doji so far on the monthly chart and if hit turns green then we have a long signal; however, if you do long term plays, you have to be prepared for volatility and must stick to a stop down to the bottom of the current candle.

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CMG gave us a textbook Bull 180 after 13 weeks of selling. and exploded over $75 in three days...WOW. The kicker was the IRC conference and although we did not get a split announced, we got a lot of positive comments and upgrades that kicked in and the shorts were squeezed. Then the second day, we get a solid gap up and today we started with a gap down on negative market news but investors say no way and hit the buy button all day. If you look at the daily chart you will see CMG also turned into a Doji Sandwich (DSW) setup and that is when the stock just grinded up all day long until it hit the 21MA at $476...WOW what a nice ride if you stuck with it all the way.

The company also announced today they were doing a company wide store closure for a day to train all employees on the new food safety procedures to assure customers that Chipotle will be the "safest" place to eat in the future. One more expected news story is the announcement that the CDC will close the eColi case and that could also lift the stock some more. The Bull 180 T3 target is $602.00 and that is where I am expecting

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1/14/16 - Cha-Ching! CMG exploded higher today on upgrades and if you held onto your 450's then you made a HUGE return today!$$! I sold out way too early yesterday but kept the 470's and sold half this morning locking in a HUGE Lotto Trade. I bought some 465 calls today anticipating the stock will get a potential positive news story tomorrow that the CDC will close the case on the eColi. Last month on expiration day, the CDC actually added more states and the stock was whacked. Now they may close the case and that could lift the stock so if you are still in your 450's (you should be out of a minimum of 50% by now) then you may just have a Moby Dick Lotto Winner.

It appears the stock is on the mend for now and there is still the possibility they can announce a split, so I will continue to play to the long side and watch for any SGB's to tell me otherwise. The weekly chart has a textbook triggered Bull 180 and if we get legs on the market, I expect CMG to reach T2 by next week if not by tomorrow on a potential CDC news release. What I wan to see at the minimum is the stock to close over T1 tomorrow.

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If the news is positive, then I will immediately get long shares and sell Naked Puts $10 ITM.

If the news is negative then I will be looking to short shares and buy some 370 Puts and also sell some ITM Bear Call Spreads.

1/13/16 - What a CRUSHING this stock has taken; and it looks like it still can go even lower; and that makes for some great Lotto and White Whale opportunities. This stock has been destroyed on a valuation model and last week they pre-announced that they will have significantly lower same store sales in the coming quarterly announcement . This just added fuel to the fire sale and today the stock traded under $400 where support buyers are still nowhere to be found.

Once the stock broke under the 200MA on the weekly chart, it was duck and cover hunting season on investors as there was no doubt huge margin calls to be settled in the past few days. Hmmm, are there any buyers of the stock or their food left? If you visit the stores, you can certainly say that is a definite NO; however, CMG is more of an institutional playground and when those elephants leave the pond they tend to take all the water with them too as if their money has gone extinct—I bet just about every retail investor who did not sell out a hundred bucks ago is capital extinct by now.

Ok, so what are we to do with CMG; and are they going to be able to regain the glory days they held from on high with so many for so long? I think it will take a very long time to even gain half this beating back if things are left to unravel on their own. There is a class action lawsuit coming and that will leave uncertainty; which long term funds will NEVER buy in until the full extent of the financial damages are known.

So, how can CMG management mitigate this disaster and stop or slow down the bleed out of their stock price? There are basically three methods used and those are:

Tomorrow the company is set to present at the ICR Conference 2016 at 1:30 EST and this could be the time the CEO makes a bold move. So, the best case scenario is they report the source of the recent food safety issues; then announce all three scenarios!!$$!! which should cause a massive short squeeze of well over $50.00 and we may have us a MASSIVE LOTTO WINNER—if they say nothing other than business as usual, then they have nothing to offer investors and the drop to $350 is an easy target.

The options volumes are low and so is the IV which gives us a perfect storm effect if they announce the news I am looking for and should cause a short-term massive short covering rally.

No BIG bets were placed today which is another opportunity for us to get a HUGE winner.

The only thing we don't have gong for us is large short interest but that also can be a positive because investors did not want to risk the downside and are eager to BUY BUY BUY on a surprise announcement.

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10/21/15 - A nice rebound today but the stock is far from being out-of-the-woods just yet. I am looking to see if CMG can retrace back to the 200MA on the daily chart but a failure of that and I will looking for shorts and a move over it I will put on some conservative longs.

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10/20/15 - WOW, what a ride in after hours CMG took. If you were short shares before the close then you had to take profits quickly because the stock missed estimates and was immediately hammered over $50 and then all of a sudden it caught fire and actually rallied back ALL of it and even higher than than the close. Then, when the conference call started, things quieted down and BAM, the CEO talks about future outlook and that was all she wrote. CMG was crushed settling at even lower lowers than the initial drop. If you were not quick to making decisions, then you were most likely whacked twice...OUCH! Ok, so tomorrow it is currently looking good for the shorts but it may not be so good for the 625 puts unless CMG gaps down at the open. We still have all week for the stock to move; however, I was looking for a bigger drop so it may not be enough to make a substantial profit but I expect these options to be a double if prices stay the same or lower. My plan is to sell at the open at least half my position and then if the first 15 minute high is taken out, I will cut and run on the rest.

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10/19/15 - Looking like the nerves are hitting investors today as CMG pulled back a little bit. I cancelled my BCS when my BPS was filled and now I will pick up my puts and maybe I will short some shares tomorrow. This chart is looking very bearish but CMG is a loved stock so the moves are unpredictable when it comes to shorting, but I will still stock to the short side bias when there is a SGB that is being confirmed.

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10/18/15 - Earnings are almost here and CMG is trading just under a weekly SGB with several DOJI closes on the daily chart which tells me there is going to be large move and the bias is down. Options are always VERY EXPENSIVE with this stock so you may have to stick to premium spreads. If you have a small account. I do not recommend trading CMG over earnings because the cost is too high and the spreads are very large on options. IV has pumped up to 75% since my last post and you can expect even more in the next two days which means even higher prices on both calls and puts.

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10/5/15 - We are not in the 5th week of sideways Doji's and a SGB zone so CMG is setting up for a move one way or the other. I think we have a see change in this stock as investors (the big fund managers) are now seeing an end to the high multiple ride this stock has had for years. Growth stocks trade well above what they are really worth and once that growth stagnates or tops out, those type of stocks get cut down. The usual way companies prop things up is with splits and dividends and then buy backs so that is a probability with CMG. This stock make money, a lot of it, and earnings are very strong, but when they top out, the stock will be whacked over night so we bias to puts however we need to have wild card lotto trades on both sides because I think this quarter will set the mark for CMG going into 2016.

I love the food they serve, but I do not eat there but maybe 3x a month; and the last few times I have been there; the lines have been low unlike the past when there was standing room only; however, I would choose their food over Taco Spell and Del Sando any day—did you know that those two companies actually put Silicon Dioxide in their meats and beans? You may be wondering what that ingredient is; and you should look it up because its SAND!!! Oh, and Taco Spell does not even "cook" their beans, the reconstitute a powdered bean product infused with God know what chemicals and fillers. At least CMG makes their food the old fashioned way and that is why there are a healthy eater must have.

I still think the stock trades at way too high of a price, but we just have to play what we get, and when it comes to eating what you kill in trading, CMG tastes (profits) a whole lot better than the other guys!

The big challenge is MM know this stock is getting topped out and they are pumping up the put options big time with huge spreads and very expensive prices even $100 out of the money which mean s we will need to wait a week before we start to look for Lotto trades. Heck an ATM Straddle is $60.55 and the IV for Oct Wk 4 expiration is at 48% +/- 62.75. Ah, I will wait to see how things price out closer to earnings.

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9/27/15 - CMG is putting in a lot top wicks in this SGB zone and now has two completed weeks of DOJI's so there is definitely a move coming and from the looks of things, that move will be lower. I think the shine has come off this loved stock and we will have a change in direction unless it can take out $755.00...which is certainly can.

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9/20/15 - I have been watching CMG for a good entry point and now we have a SGB to work with. I have an order in to short at $721 with a target at $708. This stock is a very loved one and likes to run higher but the charts are suggesting the love affair of the institutions are growing weaker and if CMG shows any signs of slow growth in the next quarter, then this stock will NOT be a high flyer in 2016. The weekly chart is our guide and you have to be ready because CMG moves fast on any news so fishing orders is the way to play.

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7/21/15 - Earning beat by only 1 penny and same store sales down and the stock rallies in after hours? No way, this smells like a PUMP-N-DUMP setup to me.

I am fishing for a White Whale trade at the open and if you do not get filled in the first 5 minutes, you cancel it! White Whale trades are meant to be hooked and develop into quick profits. What we look for is that unusual spike and the options we are fishing for get whacked at the open giving us a perfect storm type fill. Then we hope the stock takes off in our direction and we end up hooking onto a Moby Dick White Whale.

Look below and see what CMG did when they reported a similar quarter. I do not expect to get that much of a move, but it could happen again just like we got in GOOGL this earnings.

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7/20/15 - Earnings are tomorrow and expectations are very high. If they miss again and show NO revenue growth, all this huge earnings run up will be crushed. I cannot find any good Lotto call plays since IV is packed and the price to play is just too high—we want multi-thousand ROI trades. I am going with a BCS and then looking for a White Whale trade.

Today the stock stopped DEAD at the big SGB back on 8/21/14 telling me the big money is not looking too bullish at the moment. The MMM is +/- 51.00 so if the stock does perform like it has in the past, that would put in a new all time high and if they miss, I think the drop could be even bigger than the last quarter which was over $55.00.

Because the IV is packed and the options are way over prices, you have to just buy more time. Last year when they announced they had to raise prices, the stock was CRUSHED after the conference call so it's going to be a roller coaster ride for sure post earnings.

Maybe we get another MASSIVE MOBY DICK White Whale trade like we got last April 2014

Here is the potential when these MOBY DICK White Whale trades kick in!! YOU CAN LITERALLY MAKE A MILLION DOLLARS IN ONE DAY!

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4/21/15 - One of my favorites is reporting earnings tomorrow after the bell and I am looking forward to a good lotto trade. IV is currently at 72% but not as high as NFLX was so we have some potential here to get a decent profit. We are still paying a heck of a lot of premium for OTM options so it depends on how much the stock can move; however, we have three days to get the momentum going. CMG is a growth story stock and it is reaching maturity in the eyes of investors. The past few earnings quarters have made big price swings and now the stock is sitting under a heavy resistance/gap zone.

If they disappoint on the growth projections and their new ventures into other vertical brands does not show promising returns, I think this stock is poised to sell off. Will it get crushed? Not to sure about that; however, this time last year they were wiped out over $75 when they said prices on meat was cutting into profits and they had to raise prices to offset. Well, that lasted about five weeks and then investors stepped on the gas around $500 and the stock took off again to new all time highs. This time, the stock has been basing in a $50 range for 8 months indicating the growth buyers are weary.

The stock is well within striking zone of $700; and with an expected MM over $40; that would put the stock back to all time highs, so the play for me is to sell Bull Put Spreads and buy OTM puts.

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2/4/15 - Some decent rebound action that was sold off all afternoon and it's looking like CMG may continue to get crushed the rest of the week. You really cannot trust what you see with this stock, but I believe this stock is going to go a lot lower in the next couple of months...I just want to see it drop $30+ more by Friday so my Lotto Trades can kick in some big profits. The Bear Call Spread is a 100% lock in but we still need some more selling. I did not get filled on my White Whale trades at the open so I canceled them . I will be watching the action tomorrow and if the stock attempts a morning rally to 658 and fails, I will jump into some more puts.

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2/3/15 - The company missed revenue estimates and was whacked in after hours over 7%! If the selling continues the rest of the week, we could see another $50 and BANK on the Lotto trades; however, this is still a growth stock with lots of profits and investors may just figure they are getting a bargain and jump in again. When to take profits is always a challenge on Lotto Trades so you have to decide that for yourself. Now if we are still OTM then taking profits is the best bet and you can always reload or just sell some vertical spreads. There was some good action once the conference call started and that is where I will be watching in pre-market and once trading starts—I will be fishing for a White Whale trade but it will be expensive since it's not a Friday.

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2/1/15 - Time for some profits with CMG as earnings are coming out Tuesday after the close. This stock can make us a ton of profits and with the current sideways action, I think we could be seeing the end of the massive bull run this stock has enjoyed for many years now if they miss and/or guide lower. The company is still VERY popular with the public, but all things tend to go viral and then spiral when you are dealing with the pallets of the American people. Looking over the past couple of earnings releases, we have definitely seen cracks in the damn and with the last few days of trading, CMG has now closed UNDER a triple SGB zone. I think this next move is going to be a very BIG one so a straddle with bias to the put side is my plan.

The problem is we are looking at Tuesday and that means EXPENSIVE options...dang! The SHAK IPO was a stunner as investors just jumped on board in droves driving that stock up over 100% from its IPO price—that shows investors are still very HUNGRY for food stocks. The questions for me is, have they spent their lot on that IPO and wont have money for CMG? Well, if you look at the current stock price of CMG at $709, then I have to say YES, and unless CMG really killed it last quarter, institutional money most likely will be looking for "newer growth" companies going forward.

Don't get me wrong, CMG is still growing (1,681 US locations), but the rapid expansions could be slowing down in the US; and expanding internationally will be a strain on the way they bring their "organic style" to the market, so the only thing they can do is add menu items; and that is not as easy as it sounds without diluting the successful model they have. Eventually, the public will wean off the higher price food they offer as competition refines their menus to a more organic type model at a cheaper price—I still love my occasional visits to a CMG, but I still prefer Pollo Loco.

The other expansion opportunities is new vertical markets; and that is what they are attempting to do with ShoptHouse and Pizzeria Locale...hmmm...could be a telling sign they even believe they have topped out in the Mexican category. If they guide lower and admit opening new stores is going to slow down, well the, expect the stock to get SLAMMED.

Ok, so the expected MMM is a whopping +/-$46.28 so far and depending on how the markets trade tomorrow, that will definitely change. The current IV rank is only 73% which is a little telling that the Market Makers are not that concerned the stock will move more than the MMM; otherwise, I think it would be over 100% by now.

I am calculating for a big move either way, because I remember last year in April the stock rallied over $54, but then it was CRUSHED over $76 when they announced prices on beef were headed higher. Since that time, the stock has till powered higher, but the last quarter was good; however, the stock was whacked $47.00. The quarter before that the stock exploded higher $77.97 so it should be an exciting week with CMG.

I am looking for a bigger move down this time on a miss, and only the expected move higher on a beat/meet. Unfortunately, there is just no decent LOTTO play because even the $755 Calls are a whopping $10.00; and the Puts are also ridiculous too. So, the best way to play this is with Vertical Spreads where your risk is capped and the cost to play is a lot smaller. Then we can do some White Whale fishing after we see the reaction to earnings.

Whatever trade you decide, DO NOT CHASE this one, FISH for lower entry prices so the pain of loss is not so stinging if things do not work out as we hope.

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10/29/14 - Interesting trading day for CMG. The markets explode higher on Japan's QE news yet CMG drops? Typically any time the markets rally, CMG just move on up with the momentum. If it counter trends like it did Friday, that is a definite sign big money in in there making decisions. I believe the stock was only getting squeezed after earnings and the love affair is coming to an end for CMG. The stock is looking ready to move lower in the longer run so we just need to keep our fishing orders in place.

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10/29/14 - Well those double SGB's did not work out so well and the shorts got the heck squeezed out of them all the way back to my T1 line which is currently being tested today. If CMG fails this gap fill, then a continued slid lower is on the menu. This stock is difficult to trade but the rewards can be huge when you are on the correct side. I sold some Bear Call Spreads today and bought some more $600 puts to average out my failing position.

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10/23/14 - Back-to-Back SGB's, time to get SHORT! Buy 1 Nov 14 600 Puts at the open, fish for better entry price if stocks moves higher before you buy more. The other strategy is to sell an ITM Bear Call Spread (BCS) just under the 200MA.

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10/21/14 - Earnings estimates are beat but the stock gets whacked over $40? That is because they guided lower on future growth which is a 100% deal killer on paying high multiples (40x forward earnings) for a stocks price—CMG is going LOWER in the long run! There will be bargain hunters out there so expect an initial bounce and then you get aggressive on the short side. If you bought the Bull Put Spread, then it will be a 100% loser; however, we will just manage it and sell Bear Call Spreads to get that money back and make profits over time! As for the ITM 600/605 Bear Call Spread, we still need CMG to drop under $605 to make profits so we will also manage that one and roll out into the future.

As I said below, the option prices were packed with 98% IV and even thought the stock dropped over $40, the options barely moved on a percentage basis. That is why I said if you were to buy the OTM puts, they would most likely expire worthless; however, if you did buy the Bear Call Spread, then you will get a 100% profit on that trade. This stock is difficult to trade over earnings, but now that they announced growth would be SLOWING down, this stock will continue to slide lower so I will keep selling Bear Call Spreads on any rallies!

Here were all the trades I placed on CMG, and yes, I did buy those 555 puts that will expire worthless; however, I sold some Naked Calls; which are extremely high risk and take a very large account; but I wanted to show you what the potential is when you do get your large trading account in the future—of course, I have had these go against me too.

Here are my single orders and as you can see, the Naked Calls take a substantial amount of Buying Power so you cannot

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10/19/14 - Earnings are tomorrow and it's looking like CMG has been getting dumped with increasing volume. This stock has the potential to be another NFLX type event if they miss. Last earnings they beat and gapped up over $67 the next day. Now that the stock is trading near all time highs, we have to consider it will eventually hit the wall on growth and that will deflate the stock high multiple. With LOCO expanding, Qdoba and others, they company will eventually lose market share. I like the product line, but I like LOCO more and the last few times I have been to CMG, the lines were less and LOCO was busier. I still think this is a very strong stock, but it has more potential to go down to a cheaper multiple in the longer run than up significantly, so this could definitely be a sell the good news event—until CMG can take out that HUGE SGB on the daily chart, my bias is lower.

There is NO big options trades on Friday and open interest is light. Trading CMG options is just too expensive to buy, even if you buy the MMM they still want $9.60 for the week with a $1.30 spread...outrageous! With the IV pumped up, you can do some OTM spreads and collect some premium. If you want to speculate that CMG can get crushed like NFLX then take a shot with the 555 strike but be prepared to take a 100% loss if the stock does not get crushed.

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10/4/14 - This stock is building some momentum again but I want to wait and see how it trades into the SGB zone so I am going to just sit it out for now and look at it closer to earnings.

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9/28/14 - The weekly chart has two consecutive DOJI's indicating a very big move is eminent. With the huge SGB on the daily chart, CMG is a short until it takes that out; however, that is over $30 to the upside, so you cannot play short term option too far OTM and expect a good profit. There is nothing to really move this stock higher until the next earnings report other than market wide movements; so the path of least resistance is to the downside. I will be watching how it trades this week at the 55MA and 21MA. Any moves higher, I will be preparing for some puts entry points a the low end of the SGB. I am fishing for a Bear Call Spread entry too. If the stock opens lower tomorrow, then I will buy some puts on any bounce that does not take out Friday's high.

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9/21/14 - Selling accelerated this week and almost touched down on my T1 line with a good bounce back up to test the 8 and 21 MA on the daily chart. If this rebound fails, we are in for some big time selling down to at least the 89MA or maybe even a full gap fill so get ready to jump in on puts! The biggest challenge with CMG is the spreads are very wide so you have to fish if you are buying size

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9/13/14 - The selling continues and I expect CMG to head right to my T1 target as one of the stocks money managers will be dumping to raise capital for the upcoming Alibaba IPO.

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9/7/14 - The selling has begun? What? CMG can actually go down?? Do not believe that too much, but as long as it's happening, get some OTM puts on inside a 5% away from the current price and see what happens. Did you notice the interesting number the stock stop trading at today? Are the market makers telling the longs or short something here? If things get really bad, look for CMG to test the gap and/or 89MA.

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9/7/14 - With LOCO showing strong earnings, that will translate into future growth as they expand into new markets across the country, but that will take years and CMG is already entrenched in the US markets; however, who can grow is what value investors look at. The charts strongly suggest CMG is topping out for the time being, so bias should be to the put side, but remember, CMG often defies logic and counter trends. so I plan to overweight puts and sell Bull Put Spreads if CMG an trade back over my T3 line.

There is a HUGE SGB on the daily chart, but until we actually see one on the weekly chart, CMG can still head into higher ground because the daily chart has a squeeze setup in place but not triggered yet. The day will come when the stock disappoints analyst expectations and when that happens we will see this stock make a substantial move lower. Speculating on CMG requires capital and patience, so if you have those components, then keep loading up on puts each week; otherwise, sell spreads and use proceeds to finance your speculations.

The biggest challenge with options on CMG is the ridiculous spreads so you have to FISH for much better entry points.

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8/30/14 - We are at an interesting time in CMG's history. Can this stock continue to justify it's ridiculous multiple (Book value $11.99 / Forward PE $39.14 / Trailing PE $63.67) or has the big money finally made it's profits; and they will begin to move out of CMG and into other growth stories? That is a big ? and always subject to interpretation, bias and speculation. CMG is still considered a "growth" company so it can keep right on moving higher and higher in the face of common sense to valuation models. We, as traders, have to make decision based on what we are given from week to week; and CMG can take a lot of HUTZPUH to trade aggressively—this stock has no qualms about kicking you in the nutz if you are not nimble...lol.

CMG has been in consolidation for 5 weeks; and, in my professional observation, September will be the demarcation point going forward so I plan to start September with a straddle; and if the stock opens under my short term T1 line; I will overweight puts so long as the stock is trading under my T3 short term line; however, a move over the short term T2 line and I start to add Bull Put Spreads.

For lotto trades, I want to speculate with weekly puts for now no more than 5% OTM.

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8/26/14 - CMG can be a frustrating stock when you are attempting to short it...lol. Today the stock puts on a strong rally but until it takes out that huge SGB, it's vulnerable to selling; however, there is a squeeze setup on the charts and that means pain for my puts plays. I was fishing on the 655's and got a very low fill price of .35 cents into the close today so I jumped in. I don't necessarily like my strikes, but I am in none the less. At least I have a Bull Put Spread working that looks good for a profit this week if CMG continues to move up into the top of the SGB zone. I have a profit so I will be taking it in the next day or two depending on how the stock continues to react. I am still keeping puts in play because I think CMG is topping out soon and when it does fall, the drop will be sudden and quick so you have to be in the game to get the cream off the top. I will just keep some Bull Put Spread in play to keep financing my puts.

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8/24/14 - No significant selling on Friday may prove to be a buying opportunity; however, I want to see the stock move back over $690 before I get aggresively long. I was filled on two spreads and I am still fishing on the 655 puts.

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8/21/14 - Well, that squeeze I was talking about turned into a BOOM/BUST when an upgrade hit the news wires today; however, there was ZERO conviction and the stock gave back nearly all of the $22.91 gains resulting in a HUGE SGB! We have to be ready to get SHORT, but with CMG, it's always a test of ones tolerance to risk because this stock often goes against logic, trends, and common sense.

Still, I know the SGB works better than 80% of the time, so I am getting some Bear Call Spreads on and fishing for some DOTM puts just above a 5% downward move. There is a HUGE gap to be filled all the way back to $590, but that will take a market moving event or a very negative news story and, well, we are just not going to see a stock crushing news story with CMG—they are cooking with nitro glycerin!

If this stock makes a reversal from today's SGB and heads higher, then it's a sure bet it will take out $700 in the near future; so a longer term DITM Bull Put Spread will be in order. The biggest challenge trading directional options in CMG is the HUGE spreads. I wanted to get short several times today, but the option spreads were $2.00 - $2.50 and that is just RIDICULOUS!!—the only way to play options at this time is speculate with OTM by fishing for a low entry price and hope you are on the right side of a move like today.

I was filled on my Sep 650/655 Bear Call Spread and will be fishing for more entry points on spreads.

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8/17/14 - Looking ready to get squeezed higher this week if markets are rebounding.

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8/12/14 - Adding some more Bear Call Spreads but fishing for a better credit.

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8/10/14 - I am taking a small put position on CMG testing to see if it has finally topped out for now. With the last DOJI top resulting is an engulfing bearish candle last week, I am looking for CMG to to drop on profit taking.

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7/27/14 - Another huge day for CMG as the Bulls just keep driving this stock higher and higher. This stock is very difficult to trade with weekly options so I am just going to work it for premium spreads now that earnings are over.

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7/22/14 - Wow this stock just does not know how to go anywhere but UP! The Lotto calls banked a nice profit, but the White Whale trades are not going to work out, so we need to do some defense trades to cover the cost of those busted trades. The puts will also be a bust, but we can work the stock with more credit spreads to over that too. I started to short the stock and bought some $660 puts in afternoon trading picking up some profits. I kept 2 contracts on and will be looking for investors to take some profits off the table the rest of the week. Now if the stock does not open down tomorrow, my 660 puts will get crushed since they are currently at the money and I paid a hefty $5.00 in pure premium for them. If that does happen, I will go out to Aug and sell some Bear Call Spreads if CMG fails to hold over $666.00 which is where it sold off today.

As you can see below, the IV was so stacked against you, the options did not go up nearly as high as they should have considering the massive $69.00 gain in the stocks price.

Here is a sampling of different call strike prices today and you can see how the Market Makers CRUSHED the profits on the deep out of the money strikes. So the lesson here is if you are at or out of the money take profits.

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7/21/14 - Another burrito blow out quarter and CMG is one HOT stock again! The expected MMM move was +/- 35.16 and the stock blew right by that to a 10% or +58.57 gain!

Will this hold tomorrow is the big question, can CMG go higher? Typically when a stock explodes this high in after hours, it usually gains a few more points in pre-market and then sells off at the open so we have a very GOOD chance of catching a White Whale tomorrow!! The challenge is the price of the harpoon we have to pay since it's only Tuesday and the IV is a whopping 76%.

Since the MMM move was $35.00 that would have put the stock at approximately $554.77. I am estimating that if the Market Makers have their way by Friday, they will attempt to push CMG back under that move so they can avoid paying as much premium as possible on the calls and naked puts or spreads. Remember, if you bought calls, you paid a huge premium, so that is going to heavily impact the price of the options tomorrow. If you were fishing for a better entry price as I strongly suggested, then you were able to buy the 625 and 650 lotto calls for a much better price.

Now lets do some math to see the potential profits we may be able to lock up tomorrow if CMG holds the current after hours price and/or moves higher tomorrow!

This should be a good learning lesson for you if you are new to options pricing and how implied volatility (IV%) will pump or usually crush an options price/profits.

Even though I am substantially in the money (ITM) right now on the 625's, I will most likely ONLY get the full intrinsic value and NOT get any additional IV% added to the options because I paid a PREMIUM when I bought them.

I paid a $6.50 for the 625 strike because it was out of the money (OTM) having zero intrinsic value, so I paid a 100% IV premium which will be immediately deducted from the value of the option at the open tomorrow. Even if the stock opens higher, we may still not get any of the current IV% because the pricing of the options (Black-Scholes model) will skew the static mathematics with several dynamic values (Delta, Theta, Vega, Gamma, RHO) and the actual price of the options will be different, sometimes by a wide margin.

Then there is the spread of the options (which is currently at: 6.60 x 7.50 = $0.90) you have to price in which will ALWAYS be at the full value AGAINST you since you have to sell at the BID.

Now if the stock does continue higher in pre-market and also opens higher, then we WILL get the full intrinsic value PLUS some IV% initially, but that has a very high probability of being wiped out immediately if the stock pulls back any amount in the first few minutes of trading.

So, depending on your contract size the plan is to take profits on 75% of the Jul Wk4 at the open and let the rest ride. As for the Aug calls, they are basically at the money (ATM) so all we can anticipate is a little bit of IV% boosting the price we paid, but since we have a long time on these, I plan on holding onto all of mine if I CMG opens higher and holds over $650 tomorrow; otherwise, I will also take what I can get and look for another trade.

Let's hope the stock continues to rise in pre-market and gaps well over $650 so we can BANK on both of these LOTTO trades!!!

In the morning we will fish for a White Whale on the $620 strike; however, we will not be able to fish for $0.10 - $0.50 cent prices since the IV is so high. I plan on fishing at 89% of the closing bid and maybe we will get filled even lower.

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7/20/14 - Time for earnings tomorrow and if CMG does what it did last time (SEE BELOW), we are in for another potential MOBY DICK White Whale trade!

Of course it is always easy to look back at what happened after the fact, and there was no way to know the stock would fall that much, but it happens, and WILL happen again this earnings season on one of these stocks over the next few weeks. I have seen this scenario played too many times so I know that if I just keep fishing I WILL catch and it only takes 1 to make your year!

As you can see, if we catch just a few of these trades on earnings, the profits are STAGGERING, but we have to keep fishing for them. Depending on your bankroll and risk tolerance, you can just start with as little as 1 contract and build up as you make profits; and one day, you will be able to fish with 100 contracts on multiple strike prices and make a fortune in one day!!

Ok, so I do not think CMG will do what it did last quarter, but you never know so we have to fish and see what we catch. This time around, the Market Makers have a big move heavily priced at +/- $41.48 and IV at a whopping 78% just like they did with GOOGL. The other challenges is earnings are Monday and that means even more IV is pumped in so CMG is best played selling OTM Call and Put spreads. I am certainly going to try a couple Lotto trades too because if they miss earnings, we could be in for a multi day drop so I want to buy some puts 8% OTM.

No big volume or open interest this quarter indicating spreads are the best "save" bet, but if the stock surprises, we could see this stock rise beyond the expected MMM.

This stocks options are OVER PRICED so you have to fish for a better entry point. The Lotto strikes are "suggested" however, if the stock moves lower in the day, then LOWER your entry strike accordingly and if the stock rises after the first 5 minute bar, then WAIT on the puts until the end of the day and also raise your strike.

CMG is a very loved stock and moves around ALOT so if you want to go with the calls DO NOT CHASE, put in fishing orders because you will most likely get filled with the IV so high.

Short interest is strong so a big beat and we could see the MMM taken out.

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6/4/14 - It has been a long time since I last posted a play for CMG and I have not been very good at catching the huge moves this stock makes. I am going to do a little WW fishing for this week because I am thinking this stock among others, has the probability of selling off the rest of the week as investors raise capital to jump on the AAPL split. I am not at all confident in this one but I will give it a shot and then work on making more trades going forward.

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4/17/14 - WOW what a White Whale Trade opportunity in CMG today!! The stock reported strong earnings and launched higher +45.00 in early trading then held price until the earnings conference call. Once that go under way, things got very interesting and when they announced they had raise prices, the stock was DUMPED!!! Once the momentum kicked in the selling drove the stock down $70 bucks giving the OTM options MASSIVE WHITE WHALE profits!!

LEARN from this example and start fishing for the White Whale at earnings because it WILL happen again in the future!

Here is the potential when these MOBY DICK White Whale trades kick in!! YOU CAN LITERALLY MAKE A MILLION DOLLARS IN ONE DAY!

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10/29/13 - This stock just does not quit going UP! I will just keep selling some bull put spreads for now until it breaks back under my channel trend then I will get a couple monthly puts on.

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10/21/13 - Started to get a pull back and then it grinded higher most of the day. I did not get the 505's so I went for the the 510's. At the end of the day I bought some 515 calls just in case I get a gap up instead. I am looking for CMG to do what it does, pull back after earnings but with all the party poppers going off, it may just get caught up in the euphoria and take off higher the rest of the week. I certainly hope that is not the case but we will see how things work out.

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10/20/13 - CMG knocks the socks off earnings and goes supersonic rising over $70 the next day...WOW. I had too much going on with GOOG / AAPL / FB I just did not have the ability to take on more trades but dang, I should have at least bought a couple contracts. Well, I hope some of my subscribers were on this one without me. Ok, so what do we do now? We wait for a new trade opportunity and we continue to make some more money. Next time I will be looking for a play on CMG at earnings but for now, I am looking for opportunities to sell premium spreads and some WW fishing on Friday's. You know with investors buying everything like a bunch of whack-nutz, I am beginning to feel this market and these stocks are setting up for a massive move even higher. We have not had the frothy moves that precede a major crash move, so we need to keep watch for capitulation events on extreme parabolic moves.

I am selling a Bear Call Spread at the open and then fishing for a weekly Lotto Put looking for a morning gap and crap for some profit taking next week.

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9/8/13 - CMG is looking ready to make the next move. The bias is still bullish but last week put in a SGB so if this week does not take off, I would be looking for bearish plays until it does.

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8/13/13 - Still looking for the right entry. CMG popped up today so if the stock fails the 8ma on the Daily chart then I will enter my puts.

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8/11/13 - I am speculating that the overall markets are getting tired for Aug and CMG is too. I am going to go with a monthly put option and if CMG drops back under $400 I will also sell a Bear Call Spread.

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8/8/13 - Dang! Profit stopped out today, but still made 25%. I am thinking I may just make this stock my next Compounder. I am still bearish with that Tombstone RGB but it will take a lot of market momentum to the down side to get selling to kick in on CMG. I do expect a gap fill eventually, just not sure when so I will trade what I see in the weekly charts going forward.

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8/4/13 - CMG is setting up for a short opportunity. I am going to try a couple of puts and see what I get.

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6/16/13 - I am not doing any more trades in CMG for now. I want to focus on GOOG and AAPL until earnings season starts.

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6/5/13 - One of my MA alarms went off today and so I pulled up CMG to take a look and what a nice drop we have had. Unfortunately, my puts are still OTM so we will have to see if this selling will continue. I am getting more interested now in a Bull 180 setup.

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5/21/13 - I have the June puts on and this is all I am doing in this stock for now.

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5/15/13 - CMG is testing the recent sell off range and today put in a RED DOJI. The next move is about to begin and I believe it will be down (only with a market correction) but you know this stock is just loved so much it's hard to get short. I certainly cannot get long with these lofty prices and I know it WILL make a move down again. Remember, when a stock corrects, it falls farther and faster than it goes up. Put volume is up heading into expiration has jumped quite a bit so we should be getting close.

5/13/13 - All stocks move, usually not in the direction you think (initially) so you have to have patience, and when it comes to trading options, buy more time. Because CMG is such a loved stock, it gets bought every time there is a dip, but when all those buyers are done, the stock makes BIG moves down so get ready, because when this market takes a break, CMG will take a BIG break in my estimation. The challenge is, will that break happen in a day giving us a nice profit or take a week. The only way to get in on the action is to keep buying weekly options adding more contracts each week, or just buying monthly options and hope to catch a long enough ride to cover the expensive premium you are paying. I am fishing with OTM monthly puts above the 89MA on the weekly chart and ATM weekly put options or above the 21MA on the daily charts.

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5/9/13 - My fishing trip on the May 350 puts has been caught and I am looking for CMG to fail this sideways channel and head lower.

With this stock carrying so much investor love, it's going to be difficult to catch a short, but I am going to give it a couple of attempt because I know the reward will be greater if I do get the stock going my way.

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5/7/13 - Yup, sucker-punched drunk and down CMG goes! Target profits at the 21MA on the daily and 8MA on the weekly chart. I jumped on the weekly puts I had pending at the open and have a FAT profit building. The OTM May13 PUT volume and open interest exploded today!

If we get any retracement tomorrow, you will have a second chance to get in the game, so put in your fishing orders in pre-market at 55% blow today's close on the May 13 350 PUTS, because we want some time and also want to be above the crowd where the profit taking support will be.

If CMG continues to drop tomorrow, I will be cashing in on my puts and will speculate on some $360 Wk2 calls with a fishing order under $0.50 cents.

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5/6/13 - Duh! Which way did it go George? is about how I am feeling right now. CMG decided to wake up today instead of Friday and popped a nice rally. CMG is behaving like a drunken sailor looking for a fight...uh, wait a minute, that's right, they are looking for a few drunks to join the eating ranks. A quasi family hot spot is now going to become a trendy BAR ROOM serving HARD LIQUOR tequila margarita's made with Patrón . It's a trend that America is falling into again where big brand liquor is infiltrating society again at the family level. I am NOT an alcohol drinker. I have seen first hand the total DESTRUCTION it brings to families—I have been the victim of two drunk drivers myself.

I do not believe in prohibition, but I do believe in education and common sense when it comes to using substances, so let your own conscience guide your bias or beliefs, but for me, I am no longer a fan of this company or it's products. Give it some time. I am sure there will be some moron out there who had one too many tasty margaritas at the local CMG and ends up wiping out an innocent family on the way home.

For the short-term, this will make money for the company, but in the long-run, it will be a very BAD choice and the stock will dive when that unfortunate event happens...and it will happen.

I suspect, this sudden rise in the price will be a suckers rally from the Cinco de Mayo holiday and CMG will resume it's pump and dump. If the stock does manage to get over $380, then it will most likely attempt to make it back to the psychological $400 price target. I do think it will have some challenge getting there with that SGB from yesterday and the one on the weekly chart back in July 2012.

I did not open the new trades today so I am waiting to see if today's rally was indeed a punch-drunk sucker's rally.

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5/3/13 - Markets explode higher to new all time highs yet again and CMG does NOT participate? This is definitely a BIG SIGN that we are headed down in the next couple of days, especially if the markets reverse next week.

The put open interest on the 340's and 360's moved up giving us a clue that investors are also getting into position for a drop. All I know is when a stock this popular cannot move even 1% on a market wide rally like today, it's getting ready to test lower levels.

To top things off, we have a DOJI–SGB, so if CMG does not take out $372 next week or opens down on Monday, I am selling another May 13 345/350 Bear Call Spread and buying some 365 puts if I can get filled with a fishing order 55% below today's close.

Any move to the downside and I suspect a first level support to be at the 21MA ($355) on the daily or 8MA ($345) on the weekly, so I am also buying two May13 Butterfly Put Spreads at these two locations for a good probability of making a profit.

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5/2/13 - Markets are in BULL mode and CMG is really NOT participating indicating lower prices will come if the markets correct.

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5/1/13 - Just waiting for the market to make its move and CMG will follow it. Put open interest is creeping higher indicating lower prices are expected by investors.

4/30/13 - CMG is ready to make the next measured move. Tomorrow is May 1 and the 8th day of this sideways trading. If the Bull Elephant bar is accurate on teh Daily and Weekly charts, then CMG should head higher with market wide support. Not that it has taken out $360, I will wait to see how the markets react tomorrow and then sell some premium.

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4/26/13 - Another DOJI close indicating a move is head our way. I suspect it will be down as put activity is picking up. Selling premium is the safest bet but if you want to take the shot, then wait for $360 to be taken out.

4/25/13 - Looking tired up here so I am looking to start another BCS if CMG breaks $360.

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4/23/13 - The profit taking has started and I am doing a BCS to start collecting rent to recover my losses on the Lotto plays that did not work out.

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4/22/13 - CMG started the day off with an attempt to follow through but profit takers stepped in and drove the stock down to a negative close. I am a technical genius as CMG just missed a touch on my uptrend channel. If CMG does not get back over $368, I will start another BCS to help reduce the loss I took on my current one. Keep watching the put graphs for insight on potential clues to a bearish bias.

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4/19/13 - Investors must be addicted to this stock. Up it goes and the anticipated target price is a complete gap fill at $400. We will see if it can keep the momentum going, but as earnings wind down in the next couple of weeks, $400 may be the topping point for CMG in the near future. The past two weeks of power moves that CMG has made are OUT OF THE NORM.

If you pay attention to the weekly chart, then you know that last time this stock made a very steady and consistent climb, it topped out with a very similar pattern that appears to be setting up now. In fact, it ended up in a perfect Bear 180 and then a sharp decline followed and when they missed their earnings quarter, the stock was whacked $100.

Even though they are "beating" estimates this time, the company did report revenue dropped; and it dropped with MORE stores being opened. Usually, when you have more outlets to sell from, your revenue should rise overall. The only reason I see why this stock continues to rise, is because investors are thinking about the future. I mean, if the economy is slipping and CMG is expanding, then when the economy roars back, CMG will take more market share because they have more outlets to sell their "gourmet" burritos—you know, supply and demand economics.

What many optimistic investors overlook is that supply, in this case, can be left for dead when the demand, hungry discretionary spenders, have no money to buy food outside the home. With millions out of employment and on food stamps, the demand for the grocery store will rise and "gourmet" customized food sellers will begin to spoil profits with foodstuffs sitting in their freezers because they cannot sell enough. I am not trying to predict a long term scenario, I will leave that to the talking heads and guru types on TV...lol, I am just pointing out some idiosyncrasies that often get overlooked because inexperienced investors only buy with "crowd mentality" instead of deduced discipline.

All stocks rise and EVERY stock falls...CMG certainly has shown us it can collapse in a single day. It is always prudent to realize that any stock, with this type of price action, must be carefully invested in with short term options. If you plan to jump on the party wagon, you better have a backup plan to protect yourself with. If you have a big enough account to buy 1k or more shares, then I would keep a running hedge with PUTS just above a 10% drop in the stocks price from week-to-week as long as I was making profits on my long position because when the stampede comes again, you want to be able to stop the bleeding on your account while you adjust your position or get stopped out.

For now, I am keeping an eye on $350 as the stop/short pivot; and if CMG does rise to $400, that will be my next short entry if it fails there.

I am skeptical that this stock will keep moving beyond $400, so I like to dig into the finer details of a charts price action to help me make decisions on what plays I place—I do not get married to my opinions, but I do trust them.

As always, you should trade the trend until it tells you otherwise, so let's do some detective work and see if we can get a better idea of future price movement.

When CMG broke out of a consolidation at $333 it took from 12/30/11 - 4/13/12 to top out at $442.40; which was a $109 move over a 4.5 month time span. This time, CMG has moved from a low of $233 on 10/26/12 to its now current price at $366.25 on 4/19/13; which is a $133 move that as taken 6.5 months to achieve. Hmmm...it seems like a suspicious coincidence to me that this stock is pivoting around the number 33 in its price. Maybe its silly superstition on my part, but my 16 years of trading experience has my reversal antenna up.

I will be keeping an eye on the May PUT volumes and open interest as this stock moves higher/lower for clues. I will also keep an eye on the short interest.

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4/18/13 - Earnings are out and CMG beats this time with a strong 22% surge in profits.

Results: Adjusted Earnings Per Share increased 24.37% to $2.45 in the quarter versus EPS of $1.97 in the year-earlier quarter.

Actual vs. Wall St. Expectations: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. reported adjusted EPS income of $2.45 per share. By that measure, the company beat the mean analyst estimate of $2.14. It beat the average revenue estimate of $724.77 million.

The stock is currently up $16.14 in after hours trading. Today's pre earnings selling was fairly strong all day and based on the after hours action there must not be anyone that was shorting it as much as they were profit taking. This beat should have taken the stock up a lot higher than the $354.75 high.

I am hopeful that it will gap open tomorrow and make my calls profitable but seeing it has sold off in aster hours is not looking so promising.

I will be looking for a Bull Put Spread to sell if CMG holds over $340 tomorrow.

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4/17/13 - A favorite of mine to trade over earnings because it has dropped $100 before on a negative report. I do not expect that this time, but anything can happen; especially with the markets making the turn lower.

This stock has been loved by so many for so long, it's hard to short it. Every dip has been met by strong buying, so any puts you buy must be profit taken if you get one. You can go with longer term calls; however they are expensive so I recommend selling premium with spreads to make money on this one. Just wait for earnings to be released and the reaction before you sell premium.

The chart shows CMG has recovered from the past earnings meltdown back in October and then again in Jan—both times missing. What a chart, do you see what I mean about the "love" for this stock? If they beat this time, they have the potential to make a complete gap fill from last July's disaster which puts the stock back to $400. I do not expect it to get there Friday, but it will over time if earnings are a blowout. If they miss, the drop can be back to the 200MA. I am not so sure it will get whacked as the big money has learned expensive lessons and most likely has plenty of hedged bets and support buys to slow down any major drops—I hope I am wrong about that and we get a massive move.

For tomorrow I am going with a couple of lotto trades in anticipation of that big move.

Entry is Key...Exit is Everything! TM

Entry is Key...Exit is Everything! ^TM