Stock Information

Updated 6/27/19

 Stats since last update: 

Earnings: 7/24/19 AFTER

6/27/19 - The SGB failed to start lower; however, today's action has another SGB in play and that could be the beginning of a major move up or down depending on the G20 outcome with China et. al.

FB is still under scrutiny over its crypto currency and news from Morgan Stanley CEO (old school guy...millennial's are more interested in "new money" ) basically dismissing the concept; however, BITCOIN rallied quite a bit since this FB news announcement, so there is still some speculators making bullish bets on the social media giant. There was also an upgraded from Deutsche Bank with a price target of $230. With SGB's in play, I am leery of "upgrades" so my bias is still BEARISH on FB until takes out the $192 level.

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6/20/19 - A lot of action in FB since my last comments; and now they are launching a new Crypto Currency of their own named CALIBRA / LIBRA. Well, this could be a ploy to distract from the turmoil and scrutiny they are continuing to face from several governments; and in particular, our "lawmakers" have perked up over this news and are almost running scared calling for intervention and a moratorium on FB developing their crypto currency. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tokens-thrive-crypto-market-sales-194002332.html

Lets FACE it (pun intended), if FB actually gets a solid, widely accepted crypto currency working, then that could be the beginning of the end for our BS Federal Reserve Notes (which are basically WORTHLESS and inflated paper that has gone beyond its viability) and disrupt how we humans place value on transacting for our goods, services and business dealings....yeah right, and I have an ICO for a piece of the Brooklyn-CRYPTO-Bridge I can sell you...lol.

In all fairness, we have to consider that Crypto Currencies are NOT a fad and here to stay because FB just legitimized the sector in the minds of BILLIONS; and if you look at the king-of-the-hill aka. Bitcoin, then you certainly have to make an argument for the viability these alt-currencies can become. Oh and all this news has driven the price of Bitcoin to just under $10k US-FRN; and once it breaks that psychological barrier; the race is on again—cant it hit $1 mil as predicted?

All I know its that I had the opportunity to mine them back in 2010 and I did NOT do it to my utter chagrin—how could I or you have known it would come to this? All I know is youngsters who took to it are now adult Bazillionaires changing the world of money. Bottom line, you just cannot over think anything; and you should definitely get in some crypto...JUST BECAUSE YOU NEVER KNOW what it can turn into down the road.

Looking over the daily chart we see that FB put in a SGB today that below the last earnings SGB indicating BIG money is NOT convinced the crypto buzz has wings (at this time) to lift the stock to new heights. So, until FB can actually close OVER BOTH these SGB's you have to bias SHORT with Lotto Trade Calls up to 15% OTM.

Current momentum is UP and today is also the 13th day in the massive BULL run the stock has been on. What I am looking for is if FB HOLDS the GAP and takes out the earnings SGB, then I am very aggressive on longs; however, we could see a decent pull back testing that HUGE earnings SGB zone below from 7/27/17.

Crowd bias is still CALLS and IV is relatively low which gives us excellent Lotto Trade fishing opportunities!

Large block trades in options are relatively quiet probably because tomorrow it a triple witch expiration cycle so I would keep an eye on this next week.

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4/24/19 - FB reports a strong quarter and investors jam the stock higher nearly 10% in post trading. Question is will it hold since they revealed they priced in a massive (potential) fine from the FTC of $3b - $5B over the privacy issues last year. This is no slap on the wrist, and could create an avalanche as more information continues to roll out. Right now their user base is still enamored with them, but if that sentiment shifts as people wake up, they could suffer a mass exodus and that would plummet the stock as it holds valuation based on eyeballs.

Read the details here:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-ftc-fine-5-billion-221109269.html

So far, it appears the stock will shrug off this negative outcome, so investors may just pile in; because the thinking here would be more like a one-and-done type fine. If the company makes the dramatic privacy changes it's touting, then users will be happier than they are now and stick around.  What makes this a dichotomy is advertisers rely heavily on that targeted data and pay up for it. Well, if they cannot get it anymore, then the cost of doing business will eventually shrink to Face Books bottom line because they won't be able to charge a "premium" to advertisers; and that kills earnings multiple pricing models thus, lower stock prices right?

Well, that has been a loaded question in this bull market based on the past performance of many companies in some sort of scandal or regulatory troubles and it just does not seem to matter what hits them because if they are liked by Fund Managers they will be supported come hell or high-water.

Ok, so what is the play? Watch for SGB's and use them as your battle ground for bias.

For now, the plan with me is to just work FB into a TGIF PAYDAY! strategy and compound with momentum vs. trying to pick my spots.

As for post earnings trades this week, you could look at fishing the 180 PUTS for a WW Trade at the open; because if this is a pump-n-dump in after hours, this stock could get crushed back under the SGB zone at 175. But, if the smart money has a one-and-done mentality on that upcoming astronomical fine, then FB is on its way to filling the last BIG earnings gap down from 7/2018 and heading back to its all time high of $218.62.

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4/14/19 -  A continuation move from the long time SGB zone breakout has FB giving us another SGB on Wednesday. The trend is still UP as the stock works its way back up; however, it has a ways to go before it can reach the all time highs at $218.00. With continued SGB's kicking in we have to keep some PUTS in play at those SGB zones and go with momentum. There should be some continued higher ground as FB heads into earnings on the 24th but news can shift sentiment at anytime.

With my newly discovered Compounder strategy, I will be working trades in FB every week now and building contract size with Lotto Trade setups going forward. Workable strikes on PUTS should be 172.50 - 175 and CALL strikes around the weekly MMM or 3-5%.

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4/11/19 -  Last week FB made a very nice move through its long-term SGB zone and has not had much follow through since. Today, it closed as another SGB and so we now have a pivot point to play off of. If they get good news, UP she goes and any bad news and it can easily drop under that long-term SGB zone.

I am going with a few CALLS for next week and a layered PUTS for the downside potential. With earnings coming up on 4/24/19, we could see some upside pressure, so I am buying the CALLS and fishing the puts once I see how the stock opens tomorrow.

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3/27/19 -  FB has been quietly forming a Bull Flat on the weekly chart and continues to hang around the earnings gap as the markets meander around. A new story will move this stock, so you have to be in-it-to-win-it with Lotto Trades; therefore, I will be working on CALL strikes up to 175 and PUT strikes down to 155.

Looking like the stock has been under some accumulation since my last update so any positive news could spark a nice rally.

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2/13/19 -  All things have been quiet on the FB front post earnings...well...sort of. It is interesting that the power of that breakout earnings SGB zone back in July 2017 has kept the stock from what should have been a breakout back towards all-time-highs; and since that time, the stock has been slowly drifting lower as investors and fund managers probably contemplate what the markets are going to do as we head into the big vote tomorrow on another potential government shutdown—I estimate FB will continue to move with the markets up or down; most likely keeping a tight trading range until company related news hits the wires.

I am always checking the daily charts for SGB's to show up; and will trade around them when they do appear. I will also keep laying those weekly Lotto Trade orders and selling some credit spreads in the direction of the trend; and if the shutdown news hits, I expect FB to slip lower towards the SGB zone down at $158. On the other hand, if the shutdown is avoided, then markets are poised to make a move higher into next week, and of course, I fully expect FB will rise with the tides and trade back towards that earnings SGB zone.

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1/28/19 -  A down day for the markets but FB held its ground all things considered. No BIG direction bets placed today and CALLS is still the slight bias. The stock remains above the triple SGB zone, so a surprise should propel it higher than $155 and a disappointment and / or negative call etc. and we may just get a very big slam down. No fills on last weeks trade ideas so I have updated with new ones for you to consider.

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1/27/19 -  This week FB will report earnings and I am anticipating there will be some decent movement this quarter since we have multiple SGB zones. I am placing my Lotto Trade orders, spreads and shares on Monday and will adjust into Wednesday as need be. The 200MA is at 167.00 which is well above the multi-SGB zone at $155 so there is where my target strikes will be. As for the wildcard play, I will be doing PUT strikes below 140 or up to 15% OTM.

In past quarters, FB has NOT even moved the MMM which is currently +/- 9.29 so you may want to sell some ITM Bull Put Spreads at that MMM to capture some premium to help defray the cost of your wild card Lotto trade speculations.

I will also consider buying some more time on the CALL side once I see how things pan out Mon/Tue.

CALLS are still the bias so a miss could make for a nice LOTTO TRADE!

No BIG directional bets being placed on Friday but I will be monitoring that over the next couple of days.

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1/21/19 -  A DOJI close at the SGB zone could have FB ready for a solid move come earnings time. Will there be a "surprise" pre-announcement like we had with NFLX? We can't know that for sure as retail traders; therefore, we have to speculate and place orders daily to get positioned for a move. There will be a lot of anticipation with this quarterly report; and I am thinking some long term decisions will be made by big fund managers for the 2019 trading year.

If FB can continue to win the battle of global mind domination in the face of a multi-country governmental scrutiny and imminent regulations, then the charts are suggesting a very nice $50+ upside move (most likely take several weeks) back towards the all time highs. On the other hand, if they disappoint analysts expectations, and the heavy hand of governmental regulations kicks in this year, then it's going to be face-smash for the stock in my estimation. Either way, I will be in the game with multiple strikes and large wild card PUTS up to 20% OTM with the hope FB drops like TSLA did.

The JanWk4 150 CALLS I posted are up nicely so far, so I closed out half my position at a 323% ROI and will follow up the rest with a $1.00 training stop for the week.

I was filled on my FebWk1 125 PUTS and I will continue fishing for some more wildcard PUTS for FebWk1.

Watching the weekly charts for momentum clues.

Bullish bias continues as investors position for earnings in 9 days.

Looks like someone sold some naked calls  or covered calls on the Feb1 165 calls (red means traded at the BID)

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1/16/19 -  FB has been creeping higher as markets firm up and earnings begin. Tomorrow is NFLX which could have some impact on FB since it is in the "FANG" bunch, so we should start laying our weekly Lotto Trades and follow the money. FB has risen nicely since the beginning of the trading year; and looks to ready for a move into the upward SGB zone at$152-155 as we head down the road to earnings. I am placing my weekly Lotto Trades tomorrow and Friday, so follow along if you like or  keep on laying those orders on your "go to" stocks!

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1/13/19 -  As we get 2019 kicked off, FB appears to be showing signs of bottoming at the weekly 200MA; however, it has a lot of damage control issues with several governments post scandal from a year ago. As it is said, "time heals all wounds" and after the beat down FB suffered in 2018 (making it the WORST performer of the FANG stocks for 2018) the wounds and memory of hold out investors looks to be fading...that is until the next earnings report which will be significant for all of 2019.

If the company can show strong ad revenue growth amid the scandal, massive damage control hiring and multi-country government scrutiny, fines and restrictions, then I would expect a very strong multi-week rally post earnings back to all time highs. On the other hand, if they report a dismal quarter, and that quarter is LESS than a year ago, I am anticipating a massive initial DROP and multi-month slide lower and lower; therefore, my plans are to trade around the SGB zones with credit spreads and fish wild card Lotto Trade PUTS as we get into the final week of trading before earnings are released on 1/30/19.

About a year ago, FB launched a new advertising platform (Facebook Watch) that showed great opportunities to increase add revenue, and so far, the metrics are proving this strategic move was a solid . If they can continue to show strong growth on that platform, we should enjoy some nice BULLISH sentiment, but if they disappoint,  and advertiser participation drops back to 2017 levels, I am looking for a Moby Dick to show up post earnings!!

Typically stocks tend to have bullish bias heading into their earnings release, so selling some credit spreads up to the $150 strike price could make some decent gains; however, the market sentiment the past quarter has everyone in skittish mode which pumps up the IV; therefore, if you are selling some premium, start small and FISH your orders for MORE credit. I like to put in GTC orders for 25% more credit than offered; and once I get filled, I will place profit taking GTC order for 50% of the total premium collected on 50% of my contract load, then manage the rest from there.

As for Lotto Trades, my plan is to continue fishing Fri - Fri and then buying my formula trades Wed, Thur and expiration Friday.

Here is what I am seeing in the charts:

Bias is still very bullish which gives us cheap PUT opportunities to fish for!

Watching for unusual options daily is where we can find opportunities too!

12/3/18 -  More trouble on the horizon for FB and now that the dems have control of congress, you can bet there will be legislation of social media introduced into congress next year as many believe FB is a direct contributor to Trump winning the elections. Since the scandal broke, FB has been in a continuous slide and all the way down to the 200MA on the weekly chart. Today, the stock ended with another SGB and it is also a Bear 180 setup which looks to me like a Level 2. The previous earnings quarter produced a SGB in a SGB zone so now we have strong resistance at the $150-155 price, so if FB turns and burns, the drop cold easily be down to T3 around $134.00. If more bad news hits, there could be a whole lot more deluge to this stock so I am starting some Lotto Trade PUTS for the next three weeks of trading. If I see FB take out today's SGB, then I will get long shares and adjust my PUT strikes.

With all the backlash and continued bashing of the company and it's management, there could be a shakeup or shakedown in their future. Will Zuckerberg step aside from running the company? Will he replace Sheryl Sandberg?? Or will market conditions, legislation and user sentiment just turn and BURN this stock to the ground in their future? Either way, I have FB as one of my "go to" stocks, so I will always have Lotto Trades in place and wildcard PUTS because the rise will be muted, but the fall can be gigantic!

Here is what the charts are revealing today:

So far in December this week is starting out as a SGB!! So if the stock can get back over $150 then it could be good LONG; however, a drop from here will take out the 200MA on the monthly chart and then the freefall can come rapidly so keep wildcard LOTTO PUTS in play!!$$$!!

The monthly chart has started as a SGB too with a SQUEEZE breaking to the DOWNSIDE!

Here are the Lotto Trades I am placing for tomorrow on FB

 If FB moves back over the daily chart SGB in pre-market, then I will get long shares and adjust the PUT strikes before the open.

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10/27/18 -  Tomorrow is FB earnings after the bell and it should be a mover the rest of the week. This stock was whacked last quarter on a revenue miss, slower-than-expected user growth and forced spending to appease government scrutiny; which gave us a missive Moby Dick Lotto Trade on the 190 Puts; and this quarter could be the nail-in-the-coffin or a massive explosion of upside back to those all time highs...at least that is what investors and speculators hope to see happen.

This stock has been a very difficult one to trade at earnings in the early years even on good news; however, I am still anticipating a big move in either direction. Ever since the government scrutiny scandal, this stock has not had any relief of negative impacting news, so that has kept a steady decline in the stock price. Over the past few months, there has been disinformation campaigns, hacking of 50-million accounts and ramblings that CEO Mark Zuckerberg has too much power over the company and should follow the in the footsteps of MSFT, GOOGL, ORCL founders and step aside from both roles of CEO and COB. Yeah right! He controls 60% of the voting shares; therefore, he would have to ax himself...and that just isn't going to happen if the portrayal of him in the Social Network movie was accurate—he's the CEO Beeaatch!

The bottom line is the stock will keep on sliding or dropping lower if they do not post a surprise quarter and if they report a negative quarter, the drop could easily be 20+% so I am looking at wild card PUT strikes and CALL strikes at the overhead SGB zone at $170 from the  July 2017 quarter. The downside 200MA on the weekly chart is at $132.00 and on the Monthly chart the next support is at $115-120.

I was looking at a Yearly chart and noticed that FB is in a 5-year triggered Bear 180 which could see the stock drop back to T3 which is under $100 per share!

If this stocks move is a dud, then the upside target is the SGB zone at $155 and downside is the 200MA on the weekly chart.

The current IV is pumped up at 101% which means PUTS and CALLS will be expensive and with this being Tuesday, we have time premium inflated too. The most economical way to play this with options is selling credit spreads or buying debit spreads so you can get a discount but you are also capping your potential profits so my plan is to do some ITM credit spreads up to 10% and then just buy some wild card Lotto Trade PUTS for next weeks expiration just in case the stock gets wiped out.

Bias is still LONG and BIG option bets are spreads vs. directional trades which shows some conviction someone is not willing to dump their stock...yet.

If the company announces a surprise, heck maybe Zuck even says he will step down from the duality role, or they announce some acquisitions of that new augmented reality tech floating around on the "guru" newsletter peddlers could spark a renewed interest in the stocks price. Either way, I am looking for a decent move and will place my trades around that move.

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9/3/18 -  This week FB, GOOGL, TWTR will appear before Congress for some grilling on their business practices and if they will need some government scrutiny (censorship) or implied self regulation of citizens personal data etc. Will this be another blowhard spew session like they had when Zuck was present or will it be the sign of things to come for these tech giants?

You just can't predict how the general investing population will react to the hearings so you need to be a player on both side of the coin hoping to cash in when the powers that be move the stocks around. FB has been struggling to hold onto the Jan gains and closed Friday almost exactly on the low print of Jan 31st at $175.80. If the result is future regulation, this will most likely KILL the current advertising sales models for FB and that will massively adjust the earnings multiple they currently have—translation...an easy 20% drop!

On the other hand, if this saber rattling meeting is more like typical politics stage grabbing, then we are at the bottom and up is the way this stock goes for the forgeable future. I am fishing for some wildcard PUTS and CALLS; and once the event is over; I will start selling credit spreads in the direction of momentum.

One thing to note is NFLX hired a new communications chief who left FB so maybe she knows something is about to come for her former employer?

Bulls are in control so an upset will cause a BIG drop!

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7/31/18 -  FB paid off on the 190 Put lotto trade to the tune of $7,200%!!!!!!

I hope you got in on this one, but if not, there is ANOTHER ONE COMING!!

Just keep studying the strategy and place your orders every week and you are assured to start catching many of them!!

MOBY DICK JACKPOT!!

The goal is to build your contract size to 100 and you can have SIX FIGURE DAYS like this one could have been!

The stock took a BIG hit so it will take time to regain momentum and get back over the 200MA so keep fishing for trades and sell credit spreads to help finance your Lotto Trades!

Watch for SGB's to show up and that will be the pivot point. Until that happens, the current SGB zones are the targets.

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7/25/18 -  FB CRUSHED!!!!! They missed on revenue and then GUIDED DOWN which is crushing the stock. Question is, will this hold up into the open tomorrow and we get to cash in on those 190 puts? Anybody's guess, but things are looking good so far!!!

I was filled on the 190 puts at $0.21

All my trades on FB:

Another thing I pointed out yesterday was the SGB; however, I too thought this one would result in a continuation—how can anyone (other than insiders) predict when management will say something that causes a massive avalanche in post market trading? If the company rebounds in the pre-market session tomorrow, I think it can climb back to around $198-199.00, so I want to fish in multiple strikes under $200 and see what I can get filled at.

NOTE:Do not bet the farm on this even if you FOMO'd the 190 puts...there is ALWAYS another Lotto Trade coming!

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7/24/18 -  Tomorrow is earnings for FB and the stock is already on the move post GOOGL earnings. In fact, the stock has already moved 50% of the MMM; which may kill a wild card Lotto Trade; but you just never know what will happen; so we trade anyway and see what we get.

Expectations the FB will have another solid quarter are baked into the CALL options prices which makes them expensive for Lotto Trades; however, the PUTS are looking cheap but it is highly unlikely the stock will get whacked. Since the scandal, the company has continued to grow, make many changes and users have moved on with no concerns about privacy. Now if they show a loss in users, well, that could be significant, but it is highly unlikely since most users are plainly addicted to the site.

With all that said, the stock is up over 17% year to date and there appear to be no stopping it...just look at the action today off the GOOGL earnings!

We have the potential to make some nice consistent gains on this stock with credit spreads since the call options are already pumped up quite a bit. Post earnings, I am anticipating some good Lotto Trade opportunities and will be ready to start fishing for good entry points once the news is released.

This stock has been difficult to Lotto Trade over earnings but now may be the time the MM's take the brakes off and run this stock a lot higher so I am going with some wild card Lotto Calls 15% OTM and selling a Bull Put Spread around the MMM +/- 10.00 with one more week of time.

Bias is decidedly bullish

Big bets today but mostly with spreads

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6/19/18 -  FB was just a few cents away from taking out $200 yesterday; and if today's action is any indication in light of the trade wars sell off, we could see FB push right through $200 this week, so I am buying some Lotto Calls tomorrow; and will get some more for next week on Friday. It appears the companies privacy scandals have been abated and they are moving on full steam ahead. What I am noticing is the institutional ownership stats are lower and we definitely need that money to propel this stock higher so if they do come out with stellar earnings we could see a stampede; therefore, I am continuing to buy Lotto Calls week-to-week, but I want to start fishing for Lotto Puts at earnings time.

Looking over the charts, I see this is the 13th week since the stock bottomed off the privacy scandal news; and volume has steadily declined too, so it is going to take a catalyst to bust a move over the $200 price milestone. Therefore, I am sticking to my plan looking for SGB's as that will be the tall tail sign of big money moving in or out of this stock. Over the years, FB has been a bit of a difficult stock to trade with short term weekly options because it does not move too high in short bursts, but it can climb the mountain over time, so picking up a few longer term plays is a good bet and I would look for DoubleUP! trades to finance your Lotto Trades!

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5/30/18 -  What a nice run FB has been on since my last comments and now it is within striking distance of $200! When stocks approach century marks, the volatility increases and that makes for great Lotto Trade opportunities! I was talking with a good friend who got into the flat-bet trucking business and he told me today that he has been delivering building materials to FB sites; also, his friend was delivering glass windows to a site in Oregon a month ago...oh I wish we discussed this back then. Well, today, FB announced they are expanding in UTAH with a 970k sq. ft. data center: 

and when a company is spending millions, they only do that if they have the demand, so it looks like the scandal has worn off and if they announce user growth next quarter, we could easily see this stock take out $200. I will be fishing for Lotto Trades on strikes from $197.5 - $205 and trading week-to-week for DoubleUP! trades to finance more contracts.

Be sure to watch how the stock trades around this current SGB zone and FISH for better entry prices on your trades.

Keep an eye on big trades as we start June trading for clues of BIG trades.

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4/22/18 -  We have a potential White Whale Trade with FB earnings this week! Will they surprise and keep the faith of institutional investors, of has the cat been let out of the bag on how they actually SPY on everyone and use that data to manipulate their users? Well, that depends on how their subscribers interpret manipulation—and that is a loaded question. The bottom line here is THE BOTTOM LINE with institutional investors. If it is perceived the coming changes in FB privacy policy will give too much control for users to opt out (and it should!), then the company will assuredly suffer their ability for "targeting" user interests; which is exactly what is making them soooooo successful with advertisers. If an advertiser cannot get drilled down analytics on users interest, then they will definitely slow down the spending for the a-typical CPC (cost-per-click) model like GOOGL uses. Being able to pinpoint a users interests, preferences and habits is a critical component for FB advertisers; and if the company does not figure out a way to make that a need of their users in lieu of giving up privacy, then you can expect ad revenues to drop...and so will the stock...BIG TIME!—especially when government regulations kick in!

On the other hand, if we get the usual apathetic response from FB users (most likely since the majority are addicted to the site), then it's probably full steam ahead on a beat; however, I think it will take a couple of quarters to determine if the coming changes will have significant impact on advertising revenue; which can easily stifle large institutional investing and stagnate the stocks continued rise for months.

Looking over the stocks performance since the scandals broke out, we have three SGB's in play; and with the stock setting up a Bull Flag under under the Aug 2017 earnings SGB zone we could easily get some momentum going. Over the years, I have had hit-n-miss trades with FB earnings plays, so it's a challenge for me to put big money on any trades; therefore, I am looking for a Wild Card Lotto Trade this time with PUT strikes at 15% OTM and CALL strikes at 10% OTM.

The monthly chart tells ALL as you can see by the Fibonacci quadrants.

Bias is still very Bullish

I will be watching Time and Sales each day for clues of institutional buys/sells.

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3/27/18 - FB CEO Mark Zuckerberg is going to testify before Congress on Tuesday; which should set the pace for the stock for the rest of this year. If he wins over the gang on the hill, then he will have accomplished two things. Approval as an influential man of politics which could gain cult status with his tens of millions of users. If he flubs the gig, and they gang up on him with regulation, then FB users may just drop him, and his company which means advertising revenue will plummet and so will the stocks price!

Either way, we should see some solid moves this week, so getting in and fishing for low entry points is a pretty good bet this week. Also, with earnings coming, if things go bad there too, we could see this stock literally get cut in half!—the biggest question is will FB users begin to decide if FB is a Friend or Foe with their data, privacy and use of the information they put on the network.

The daily and weekly chart both have SGB's so we are in for some action this week and into earnings!$!$!$

I am buying some wildcard Lotto Trades 15% OTM on calls and puts, then fish $0.20 on 5% OTM calls and puts this week—there is a Moby Dick Lotto Trade in the water here!!!

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3/27/18 - Another round of selling hit the markets today and FB was  dumped on strong volume after yesterdays hanging man SGB failed to hold the line. The news confirmed that CEO Zuckerberg will testify before the US Congress, so we should see continued selling pressure on the stock until that event happens. I am sure it will be the usual mumbo-jumbo with intelligent things like, "uh umm, I don't remember" or "I would never let that happen" oh and brilliant replies like, "I will have to investigate that senator and get back to you for the record (wink wink). I am sure this up and coming media circus is going to be a Ringling Brothers worthy show as the clowns of congress come out to ruffle their feathers about the evil doings of FB getting the President single handedly elected with their meddling...blah blah PUKE!

Bottom line, if FB fails to make the grade with them thar purveyors of truth, just-us and the American get-outta-my-way law(less) makers, then I expect a crushing of the stocks price as unsuspecting users of FB disembark from their favorite online hangout spot as they are woken up to what is really going on at the company with their personal data, texts, messaging, phones calls, habits, friends lists etc. But really, would something like this be a massive deal killer for them and the stocks prices? Uh, yeah, it certainly could if the talking heads chime in and paint a very intrusive, ugly picture of the company and their practices—after all, you may remember that Zuckerberg has been quoted saying his users are "dumb fu**s" for trusting him with their data back in early 2004.

It's all going to be interesting to see how FB moves; and we need to be ready to profit; so my plan is to fish puts up to 20% OTM and calls up to 10% OTM plus I will buy some wildcard lotto puts all month until earnings come out on the 25th.

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3/23/18 - The selling resumed Thursday and accelerated on Friday into the close. WOW what a Lotto White Whale Trade these strikes became. We may have missed out on this one, but there will BE ANOTHER ONE COMING so you just have to pick your stock(s) and keep laying the nets. There will be a lot of losing trades along the way, but as you can see below, once you hook onto one, it pays off ALL the losers and advances your trading account. The KEY is to aggregate your profits over a years efforts and ONLY increase contract size AFTER you have winners, that way, you will COMPOUND your profits faster and faster with the goal of reaching 100 contract loads and collecting retirement account profits!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If FB loses members by the millions, then the stock could easily get cut in half so I am keeping my finger on the PUT trigger up to 15% OTM if there is a dead-cat-bounce this week. The key is watching the retracement action at 55% of the last two weeks selling—fails aggressive shorts, climbs higher moderate longs and bull put spreads. Either way, this stock has a lot of PR work to do and a massive amount of profits to be protected from long term investors. There are no doubt plenty of dip buyers hanging around at the weekly major moving averages like the 89 / 100 / 200.

Now that FB has failed the 200MA on the daily and crashed right through the old topping SGB zone back on 7/27/17, the bias is to the SHORT side until the stock can get back over this zone at $175.55

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3/22/18 - FB is catching heat from news about Cambridge Analytica data being leaked, collected and used to help the Trump campaign? Really? So now CEO Mark Zuckerberg comes out to defend his company, their motives and desire to make necessary changes to assure user data cannot be used in a manner that violates the privacy, trust and needs of their users. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zuckerberg-press-event-shell-195954860.html

When this news hit the wires, it caused a HUGE drop in FB shares; and if you were fishing for Lotto Puts on Friday; then you made some BANK the following Tuesday! I for one bought some puts for last week (expired worthless), and was unable to make it to my computer Friday to buy for this week—DANG!!!!!!!!!!! what a White Whale missed opportunity that was.

Well, the lesson I learned here is that I now have to buy the front week, and on Friday's, buy the next week when fishing for Lotto Trades so I can assure I have higher odds of connecting/hooking a massive White Whale like this one turned into.

Going forward, this type of news can be very damaging to Facebooks reputation; and if it catches fire in the minds of users; this stock could start a massive slide lower as advertisers fear users are heading for the exits; and if those users like Zuckerbergs apologies; then we could see the usual couple of days downward reaction; and then the stock resumes it's steady rise higher—my strategy is to buy puts up to 10% OTM and fish calls up to 5% OTM going forward.

Below is an example of what can be a reality if you stick to a single stock (as your "go to" stock) and just keep laying orders Wed-Fri and now buy on Friday at the close so you can potentially wake up to a massive Lotto Trade on Monday's.

I am adding expiration Friday buys for the next week with smaller contract loads; and will work on building my profits so I can expand this into more stocks week-to-week—it's like adding a bigger net to catch more than one White Whale in the future.

You must be able to watch your trades and TAKE PROFITS on at least 50% of your size because the movements are quick when news stores hit the stock. This is why I teach to lay orders to buy and also lay GTC orders to sell half at 300%ROI so you can get a free roll on the balance and see how much you can make. Now that the move has already happened, the IV is going to be pumped up, so you have to fish for much lower entry prices day-to-day and see what you can hook onto.

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1/28/18 - FB is approaching a milestone for the social media giant with $200 in the strike zone. If they have yet another earnings surprise, we could possibly see a NFLX type reaction since this stock is trading cheap in price point but still trading at high multiples. In the past, FB has beat and even surprised estimates, but the stock has traded flat. Will this be a different scenario this time?  If you look at the past couple of weeks, we can see the stock has been extremely volatile with movements upwards and downwards some $14 dollars in both directions. The biggest single day moves have been around $7 per share so the multi-day moves have been double that; however, a couple weeks back when CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced they were changing the metrics of the News Feed, the stock was initially whacked $10 overnight, but managed a strong comeback as investors looked at that as a GIFT buying opportunity. All charts point to a massive higher parabolic move, but that will take a stellar report and strong guidance which is something FB has not done too heavily in the past—the would rather under promise and over deliver like AAPL and others have.

Ok, so we have to keep fishing for entry prices this week since earnings are not until the 31st, but I am definitely going to have my Lotto Calls and Wildcard trades in play; then do some WW fishing post earnings and hope for a NFLX type move!!

The current IV is 58% which is relatively low for this stock heading into earnings which means a surprise could create a nice multi-day squeeze, but most the time, FB does not trade much higher than the MMM which is at +/- 10.00 at this time. With that being said, DO NOT LOAD THE BOAT on this stock; however, FISH for decent size with multiple orders and see what you can get filled on.

Ok, I am starting my fishing trips up to 15% OTM on calls this week and depending oh how FB moves Monday, I will adjust my strikes accordingly by Wednesday.

Here are the PUT strikes I am currently watching and will adjust higher if FB moves up on Monday.

Calls (bullish sentiment) is VERY high so a big miss and we can see a much larger drop than we got just off the News Feed changes, but that is most likely not going to be the case; however, a couple years back when LNKD missed, the stock was cut dang near in half so have your wildcard puts (up to 20% OTM) in place because they should be cheap to buy.

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1/21/18 - The selling is over at the SGB zones and now we are in bullish mode again as earnings season kicks off and FB will most likely head back towards the highs. 

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1/14/18 - The Zuck decided to muck up the newsfeed pool; and this caused a riff in the stocks price as investors fear this will change the metrics of the cash flow, but it appears there was some big buyers lurking below in the 178-180 range that stopped, what could have been, an all out stampeded for profit taking. This week should be some upgrade/downgrade mumbo jumbo; and I expect some good movement in the stock; so I am on the hunt for some WW trade action fishing trips.

Earnings are kicking in this week, and FB is slated to report on 1/31/18, so this should keep some buying interest going forward. Typically, a CEO will drop a perceived bombshell news event to either lighten the load for a negative report or to sandbag investors for a killer report (aka manipulation) to get in on a cheaper price. We retail traders will never know the "inside logistics" so we have to keep watch on what is happening to price, volume and option interest to give us a hopeful speculation edge on what the big money managers are doing in order to lay our bets.

Long term, this news should have a positive impact because there will be "less" in-your-face advertising that was becoming a complain of FB users. The bottom line is FB is a social place and now that Zuck has banked his billions, he does not have to necessary concentrate on making even more money and in fact, he has said he will be giving it all away in his future (yawn) in some "foundation", so apparently he does not care about the bottom line of FB since he, and a handful of his early investors, already have theirs.

Will this be the "TOP" for the stock? No way to know, but what we can do is lay the orders and eventually we will hook up to a White Whale in the future. So, how do we figure out where the stock is going to land? That my trading friends is always a loaded question with more opinion-needles than a haystack can handle. What I can tell you, is the best haystacks are where the SGB zones show up; and that is exactly where FB stopped on Friday; so I know there is where the action or battlegrounds will be for my price/strike targets.

The bias is probably down in most minds, but Cramer says FB is a BUY BUY BUY this week, so Lotto Calls are on the menu now that put IV is pumped up; and then we see how the stock moves around as earnings approach we will set our hooks and hope to catch another Moby Dick trade!!

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11/1/17 -  FB beat by a wide margin with a 79% jump in profits; however, post conference call, it was dumped  due to Russian BEARS news...

Zuckerberg says security hiring efforts 'will significantly impact our profitability going forward'  — The Russian rubles spent in an effort to tilt the 2016 U.S. election could cost Facebook Inc. a big chunk of its profits.

This will be a BIG game changer for the social media giant and fund managers will NOT want to wait-and-see so they headed for the exits taking the stock back UNDER the SGB yesterday and now we will see if that continues to drive it down into the previous quarters SGB.

You cannot predict what a CEO will say in the earnings calls; and this time the words were a tough pill to swallow—we are in for a White Whale fishing trip tomorrow!!

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10/31/17 -  Can FB do it again? The chart suggests $200 is easily priced in on another beat and if they surprise, we could see a 20% move like we had in AMZN. Of course, a disappoint or unexpected miss and the pounding could be astounding. The stock closed the day as a SGB new all time high so I expect a solid move in either direction and therefore, I am going with some wild card Lotto trades 15% OTM with a ICU on the call side at the $195 strike. The uncertainty is how deep could government become in regulating FB over the growing scandal of Russian intrusion into FB advertising during the elections. Should government start to intrude with typical draconian regulations on the Social Media giants such as FB, GOOGL, TWTR etc., then that could put a real damper on future advertising growth, but with the anti-regulatory Trump administration, it would be a good bet the govern-mental-camel will not be getting it's snotty nose under the social media tents...at least one can hope right?

Last quarter, FB had a surprise beat that only produced a 6% jump that was immediately sold off, but this time the MM are ready for that so I am hopeful a bigger move is coming this round.

If the stock fails at this SGB and falls into the previous earnings SGB then I will be getting aggressively short post earnings.

The bullish bias is MASSIVE, so a surprise miss and the drop can be HUGE, but a beat and we should expect a solid move higher over multiple days.

A massive trade on the Call side went off at the BID suggesting a bullish bias as it seems to me they would not be "selling" that much risk as a Naked position and hardly seems worth it to me to be a covered call play.

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7/25/17 -  Tomorrow is the day for FB to impress fund manages or depress them like GOOGL did. We have a SGB at the top of a rally; which is a short signaling indicator so the bias is Lotto Puts and Swing Calls. If FB has another surprise quarter, we are in for some solid upside gains but how high can it go this week it the magic question. We know if they miss the drop could easily be up to 10% but with a solid beat and surprise, then the shorts will get squeezed and off we go. The IV is pretty low for a FANG stock and the MMM is +/-7.52 so 2x would put Lotto call strikes deep into profit territory. 

Crowd bias is long

Not big directional bets

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5/2/17 -  AAPL missed and the stock was barely sold off in after hours so we need to see a BIG move in FB and today the stock closed as a SGB so there is definitely a move coming! If they surprise, we are good to go and if they disappoint the drop could be up to 10% so I am buying some puts inside that 10% move and will adjust accordingly post earnings. 

HUGE increase in call open interest.

HUGE contract loads in May/Jun at the ask.

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5/1/17 -  Another gap higher as we head into earnings. Tomorrow is AAPL and if they beat, that should build some excitement buying in FB, and if they disappoint it appears FB will still keep going higher. With all this pre-earnings run up, we may have a "priced in" scenario setting up which means calls are going to be very inflated making it next to impossible for a Lotto Trade; however, you never really know what will happen until it happens so we when we have to pay extra,  we cut size and wait for opportunities post earnings.  I was filled on the calls but not the puts so I am fishing again tomorrow but moving the strike up a little as FB heads higher.

Looks like the call open interest dropped quite a bit over the weekend

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4/30/17 -  Big gap higher on Friday over the SGB zone shows institutional money is pouring into FB so if they surprise we are in for a large move and I am hoping for a solid 10% ++ move. Of course if they disappoint the drop could easily be greater than 10% so I am buying options accordingly looking for these extreme moves. In the past, FB has been a dismal disappointment at earnings time but the MM's will not let it do that every time so I am anticipating this quarter to me some solid moves. The IV is currently at 42% (+/-6.42) which is not an extreme like I have seen in the past; therefore a surprise either way can definitely make for a great Lotto Trade!

Some HUGE Call bets were placed way out in the future on FB so we follow the money!

Sentiment is clearly VERY bullish so a disappointment (not likely) is a huge Lotto Trade opportunity—do NOT swing for the fences on puts but have them in place.

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4/19/17 -  A very nice move higher from my last comments and now we have  another SGB zone to guide the long/short entry points. FB started their developers conference and it looks like to me Zuck killed it on stage. The buzz is augmented reality; and that has a lot of potential for the future of FB. Big money loves future compelling news and growth stories to buy into; and with AAPL in the doldrums of growth; GOOGL/AMZN being very expensive stocks; the two candidates for money to move into will be NFLX and FB. Of course earnings drive stock price, but once a buzz begins, big money ignores common sense (AMZN) and drives price on speculation (TSLA) so be prepared to get on the next big move with FB.

If the stock moves back over the recent SGB zone, then I am aggressively long; and under this SGB zone, I am looking for some short-term PUTS.

Earnings are scheduled for May 3 and typically FB likes to run up into earnings, so my bias is bullish on dips down to the 89MA—if we get that much of a gift.

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2/12/17 -  After the Post earnings SGB, FB found some support and has been on the climb closing the week out at a new all-time-high. It still has to test that large wick on the chart from 2/3/17 and with a DOJI finish on Friday you can anticipate some resolve coming soon. Now if FB makes the move higher on Monday, then I am long shares with a stop at $133 and if we get a move down then I am looking for a short entry under $133 with a stop at $135.00.

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2/3/17 -  Big beat but no follow through. Now the news floating is FB is topped out and from the looks of today's action, you have what appears to be a very strong bearish engulfing candle. I am really bummed out we did not get the explosive moves I was anticipating; and now there is no probability FB will see anything remotely close to $140 in the coming weeks. I am going to see how the rest of this week plays out before I make some more trades on a longer term basis; however, I plan to do some WW fishing in the morning and see if we get a bigger move off of today's action. There will plenty of opportunities going forward, so stick to the lotto trade strategy and we will compound our way to higher ground soon.

Snap filed for IPO tonight and that probably added to some of the downdraft in FB but I think this is overblown and FB will be rebounding soon. If we do get a move back over $133.00 then I will be selling Naked Puts aggressively.

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1/31/17 -  Tomorrow the social giant reports earnings and expectations are high. AAPL beat and it lifted FB in after hours so we will see if that keeps the excitement going. If they beat, then a ton of money should be coming in that did not go to GOOGL. With the stock pulling back the past three days, it will take a surprise to cause a huge short covering rally and we could see a very nice double MMM move. It is going to interesting to see how things play out the rest of the week so get ready. I am going to pick ups some more FB calls for next week and some Lotto Puts for this week.

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1/29/17 -  FB had a very nice SGB breakout earnings run and attempt to reach the all-time-highs, but fell short of my target of $134 by just a little bit. Then the GOOGL earnings miss has put some brakes on FB as investors try to figure out if the social media giant will also miss the mark. Win or Lose, we should see some good movement in this stock since the price is significantly cheaper than GOOGL. A surprise and its appears we could be on the road to $150; but a GOOGLE type disappointment can start an avalanche of selling as investors scramble to lock in all the profits from the past 4 weeks—in other words, a beat is most likely already priced in and IV is very low at 51%, so the Market Makers are not concerned that FB will make a strong advance.

The MMM is priced at +/- 6.00 which is around a 5% move to the upside and if they knock it out of the park, then all the money that could have lifted GOOGL will be going to FB and might just take the stock parabolic. I want to pick up some more calls for this week and will be looking at some longer term puts on the day of earnings because if they disappoint, then I expect a multi-day drop.

Calls are 263k to Puts at 103k so the crowd is very bullish in this stock.

Big options activity

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1/22/17 - Elections over, inauguration completed, protests done and it appears that everything went down without much of a real upset amongst those in disagreement with the new administration kicking off this week. Oh I am sure there will be continued fireworks that spread across FB as we find out what executive orders, legislation and congressional battles will manifest; and the war of opinions will no doubt be a potential brooding bloodbath between millions in the FB community and the Trumpeters' Twitter ability to (like a da Vinci operating machine) surgically cut through the pile of bigoted crap that will be spewed across all channels of social media. If we do get a war of words and opinions going through FB and Trump goes on offense (as usual) then we are going to see some pretty big volatility in the stock so get ready to make some good Lotto Trades this year! For the past week, the stock traded pretty flat against a SGB zone stopping Friday exactly on the 8MA. I am not finding anything that could negatively impact the stock this weekend and I am expecting a nice rally if markets are favorable, so, if FB takes out this weeks SGB and trades over $129, I am aggressively trading with long strategies—I am expecting a good pre-earnings run most likely testing the all time highs around $134.00.

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1/17/17 - The rally in FB continued to power higher off the 89MA and now we have a full gap fill from 11/2/16 and also a SGB zone. Going forward, I am sure investors are trying to decide how they are going to play FB post inauguration. and from all indicators, its a really strong case for more upside. Today is a Harmi candle pattern which can be bullish or bearish, so if it gets taken out, that would also take out the SGB zone and long strategies are the way to go; however, if the SGB zone holds the line, we look for short strategies. Earnings are still a couple weeks off and IV is low so if we do get a bullish confirmation, then selling put premium is a good bet and buying some OTM call premium is also good as the IV will increase driving the price up on the calls. The daily chart has a Bear 180 setup that failed at the 89MA so as long at that holds, FB is a long bias heading into post inauguration.

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1/8/17 - The first Lotto Trade of 2017 was a HUGE 1,300% WINNER!!

Momentum was strong all week as investors pushed the markets up to pennies away from 20,000 on the DJ-30; and it is looking good for that milestone to be hit this coming week. FB climbed right off the 200MA then drove past the last SGB touching the 89MA and closing exactly at the previous BIG SGB zone from 11/4/15 on large volume! A move over the 89MA and into that SGB zone should be viewed as a very bullish buy signal; and as we kick off earnings season this week; FB is definitely going to be on the minds of hedge fund managers as a strong growth stock for 2017. Of course there is always a wild card news or market event that can crush any rally, so keeping some puts on deck as we approach the inauguration would be prudent because FB is still under heavy selling pressure from the week of 11/4/15 and that large SGB back on 7/28/15 when it plunged. If they have another surprise quarter, I would expect this stock to reach new all time highs, so I am targeting Lotto Trade strikes up to $130 as we approach earnings in the coming weeks. The first test of a continuation rally will this week will be at the SGB zone of 7/28 between 123.63 - 128.33 so I plan to sell some Naked Puts and buy shares then I will be looking to fish for lotto calls Wed - Fri. Tomorrow is the 5th up day with FB and also a Bear 180 setup, so if the stock cannot get beyond $126.55; and shows me a Red Candle; then I will consider a day trade short on Tuesday.

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1/3/17 - The first day of trading for 2017 produced a positive close for FB but not a strong one. The Lotto Play was off to a good start practically tripling; and then it finished the day back at a break even. I am still in that trade looking for a continuation of today's move; and I will look to put in a profit stop at $1.00 if things start going my way again. Earnings are set for Feb 1 and if the stock can hold the line here at the $115-116 level, then a potential earnings run can start soon. Speculation is floating around that FB could see a 30% rise in the coming months, so if they do beat this quarter then that rise to new heights is on!

If you are thinking about investing in FB for a long haul payout, that very well may be a decent bet, but that will tie up a lot of capital and take a very long time to realize the potential gains, so I plan to keep selling Naked Puts / Bull Put Spreads along with buying weekly Lotto trades. As for share accumulation, I will just continue my daily scalp trades and start to build a portfolio of shares like I do with AAPL.

I am still bullish on my bias heading into 2017 even though the stock is testing the current large SGB zone. If we do get a failed 200MA attempt, then I will be looking at more aggressive short plays; however, if markets lose their mojo heading into inauguration day, the daily chart is suggesting more downside to come, so for now, I will keep my eye on $113 as support and decide what to do next.

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12/29/16 - Tomorrow is  the final day of trading for 2016 and FB is looking a bit weak as it will close under the daily 200MA and is testing the bottom of the past 7 weeks of sideways trading. There is continued pressure on the stock as news looms they are not going to make the estimates in the next quarterly report; however, if they surprise then the rally is going to be HUUUGE, but if they falter as we head into the new Trump administration (Zuck was campaigning against Trump...watch out for potential negative tweets from the prez regarding FB in the coming months), we could see FB easily drop to $100 and lower, so I am looking for Lotto Puts on any failed attempts at taking out the last SGB zone. As for long trades, I am going to so some Lotto Call fishing and not getting aggressively long until the last SGB zone at $122 is taken out. With a potential new year rally, we will have a potentially strong pre-earnings run if FB gets back on track with the "W" pattern I pointed out below.  I hope 2017 is another million dollar year for the Lotto Compounder strategy so get ready to put your game face on and let's trade!

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12/26/16 - The Christmas holiday week of trading produced a steady sell off for FB as it was testing the lower end of the "W" pattern I pointed out last time. I shorted some shares under the 200MA and had some nice gains this past week. Going forward, I am looking for the stock to hold the current levels; then  I will start fishing for some Call strikes up to the 200MA. If we get a down open tomorrow, then I will continue to short shares under the $116.50 SGB zone with initial profit targets at the base of the "W" pattern at $114.50.

If FB holds the SGB line this week, then shorts will get squeezed as we head into 2017, but any negative news and the weekly chart is about to confirm a Bear Flag pattern, so my plan is to fish for calls up to 3% OTM as/if the stock takes a dive this week.

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12/18/16 - FB ended the week flat and on the daily 200MA. This week we should see some volatility after the Electoral College casts their votes for or against President Elect Trump. It is expected he will be confirmed, but what a wild card things will be if there is an upset. Should things go as expected will there be a continuation of the Trump rally and put the DOW over 20k? I think that will be the outcome as we head into the final two weeks of 2016 trading. For this week of trading we saw FB test and fail to take out the SGB zone three times indicating there is some potential for a bigger move to the downside, but do not get too involved in big short positions because the daily chart is actually a "W" pattern and those are very bullish. So, if FB fails the 200MA I will short shares and fish for Lotto Calls; and if it moves higher this week, then once it can get back over the current SGB zone, then I will be long shares and selling premium.

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12/11/16 - Another great week of upside moves in FB had the Naked Puts pay off nicely! With the stock dead stopped at the 200MA on the daily, I am taking profits tomorrow if it gets anywhere close to $2.00 or $1.00. There is still quite a bit of negative sentiment in the stocks weekly chart and until FB can retrace above 55% of that range and also clear out the longer term SGB zone, any rallies are suspect. If we get a continuation rally this week, then I am looking for some resistance around $123.50 so that is where I will be looking for my next longer term options trades on this stock. For the short term, I plan to continue my day trade scalping and will be looking forward to Jan earnings to begin. The next couple of weeks will most likely be stagnate with the Christmas Holiday approaching; however, this Tuesday is the FOMC decision and it is widely expected they will FINALLY raise the interest rates again by 1/4%. I hardly think this will cause a stampede for the exits as investors have been very well conditioned it is coming and once the news is actually confirmed, then we will most likely see a relief rally.

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1/24/16 - Thanks FB for giving us a nice fat Lotto trade this week with that perfect bounce off the 200MA—hope you gobble gobbled up the profit$.

The stock had a nice rally and stopped exactly at the top the SGB zone before investors (me included) took some profits ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Tomorrow is a 1/2 day of trading and most likely will be a dull day but I am looking for FB to make a move back to test that SGB zone and next week I have target of the next SGB zones between $126-128 on a breakout over this one.

When the stock bounced last week, it started a Level 1 Bull 180 so if it cannot hold the 200MA on the daily chart, then it is a failed B180 and look out below as $100 is the ultimate downside target. The weekly chart is telling us big money has been dumping the stock so that news last week about Snap coming out with an IPO definitely has them concerned. Yesterday there was news about FB China that had zero impact but we are in a holiday week and trading is anemic to say the least. SGB's have been excellent pivot points and targets so we continue to trade in and around them and with FB there is always going to be some awesome volatility so keep fishing for those WW and Lotto trades!! I am fishing for some DecWk3 120 Naked puts and will be watching tomorrow to see how FB trades the short session before I put some more trades on.

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11/17/16 - News this week that competitor Snap Inc. is going to IPO initially had FB slammed down, but investors "snapped" up that dip and closed the stock higher today. As long as FB remains under the 200MA it is vulnerable to selling, so I am fishing for some puts for next week and some call too because the 200MA is a major pivot point; and this weeks selling has all but taken out all the stops from the past 8 weeks of rallying. Now if FB does get back over the 200MA, then I am expecting a gap fill from the earnings release with a price target of $125; however, if the Snap Inc. IPO fears stick, then we could see FB easily head back to $100 in a pretty quick amount of time.

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11/13/16 - A Trump upset killed the rally in the Fang stocks and our winning Lotto trade along with it. What a roller coaster we had post election and if you were fishing for WW trades, then you had the potential to catch a couple of Moby Dicks in FB and AMZN. After the dust settled, investors (fund managers) are beginning to dump some stocks and move towards  a Trump administration positions. The healthcare sector exploded higher and defense stocks (NOC, LMT, RTN) are starting to move too. The tech stocks took a beating  but I am sure they will be on the move again soon. Now that the elections are over, I am certain big fund managers will be very interested in the coming comments of President elect Donald Trump; especially when it comes to FB, AMZN and AAPL. It is widely known that FB and AMZN CEO's are not lovers of Trump; and can be disruptive to his future administration efforts; on the other hand, the Trump administration can also be quite disruptive to them too, so I am expecting some volatility in FB and AMZN—and this is exactly what we need!$$!

So my plans are to keep fishing for Lotto trades 3% OTM each week on FB and AMZN and looking for news that will have an impact on these stocks so I can WW fish the next morning. What we want to keep a close watch for is SGB's; and we do have one back on election day 11/7 that proved to be an excellent short setup.

FB initially rallied the next day but then it was crushed with the Nasdaq stocks the rest of the week closing on the 200MA. This will be pivotal this week as investors decide how things will look for the rest of this year so a move back over the SGB zone is a long and under the 200MA is a technical short, but be cautious if the stock does not take out that huge bottoming tail from last Thursday at $115.27.

Here is examples of what WW fishing can do for you on Thurs or Fri when stocks like FB are moved off big news events:

The key is to lay the orders and have your 300% ROI sell order in on half. As you can see, the 120 and 122 strikes easily made you the 300%; and then the rest made as much as 5,000% in less than 1 hour, but you had to be on the trigger to take those huge gains; however, by the end of the day you still banked a huge Moby Dick WW trade. The point being is you need to learn the strategy and always have fishing orders in over major news events to catch them. In the coming months there will be several opportunities like this with FB, AMZN, NFLX, AAPL, GOOGL so be ready and keep fishing even if I do not have trades posted to the site.

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11/8/16 - Nice move higher today ahead of the presidential elections but beware, yesterday FB put in a SGB; however, this was at the bottom of the post earnings drop which found support at the previous earnings SGB so if we rally tomorrow, it is looking strong that FB will be on the move higher. Our $125 calls have already quadrupled which would be a huge profit if you took any; however, I held on looking for an explosive move since I already have puts in place too. If we get an upset tomorrow and FB falls back under this SGB then oppressive shorts are in play.

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11/6/16 - Big week of volatility coming with the Presidential elections. It is widely disseminated that a Clinton win rally and Trump win crash. FB has been beaten down since earnings and the lower guidance, but we know that they tend to guide lower so if we do rally I am sure FB will be one of the leaders of the pack; therefore, I plan to have more Lotto Calls in place than Puts. Friday FB stopped right on my SGB zone which is right where the 200MA on the daily chart is intersecting so that is a major technical support area and should be aggressively bought if holds post elections.

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11/3/16 - No big rally today but I was filled on my WW Call trade today and we still have tomorrow so anything can happen. The action today indicates the Bears are still in control since FB could not rebound even 55% of the post earnings drop. We needed a full retrace to get the WW calls into any profits so tomorrow is our last chance; however, if the Bears do indeed have the ball we will see a definite test of the bubble low at $116.31. So far our NovWk2 116 puts have nearly doubled and I will be taking half off tomorrow and see what happens next week post election.

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11/2/16 - FB beats but guides revenue lower and stock gets WHACKED in after hours trading! This could be a HUG WW setup tomorrow so be ready to fish the $125 calls and if it continues to get crushed we have big profits coming on our 115 puts which expire next week!

These comments were all it to: 

Yet Facebook said that it can't maintain its current pace. Starting in the middle of next year, Facebook will stop showing users more ads in their news feed, the tactic it has been using to juice revenue growth for the past two years, the company said Wednesday. As a result, advertising growth will "come down meaningfully," Chief Financial Officer Dave Wehner said during a call with analysts.

This should have legs into tomorrow, but you never know what the big funds will do so fishing for call side WW is on the menu! As for the near term charts, FB dropped in after hours down to the huge SGB from the  April quarter, so if there is NO stellar rally, then I expect a failed attempt at $125 to be an aggressive short from $121 down. Couple this with a crazy election coming and I am pretty sure there will be NO BIG capital put to work this week or next.

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11/1/16 - Tomorrow is the big day for FB and the last of the hot internet stocks to report earnings. So far this season, lotto trades have been practically a zero sum gain and I am a wee bit bummed out. I am hoping that FB is the big winner tomorrow and they pull a huge surprise like GOOGL did back in 2013. The MM's are definitely not worried about upside as the IV is very low. Also, they are not offering any strikes above $150 so this could become a HUGE short squeeze event. Most likely, Fb will not move much more than the expected MMM +/- 6.22 and selling spreads is the safe bet, but we are speculator here at Option Radio and we fish for the Moby Dick White Whale Lotto trades. So, my plan is to buy the 140 calls for the wild card and then some puts into next week since the chart is full of SGB's and looking like it is being dumped; however, the recent selling has been on low volume so that is a good sign.

Tomorrow is the FOMC statement which will set a solid tone for the markets as we head into a very important presidential election. It does not seem to me they will upset the markets with a rate hike this month, but Yellen is expected to make pertinent comments that will set the Hawkish wheels in final motion. Unless FB really blows the doors off, I do not seen big funds piling in until post elections on anything and the likely path is flat to down so I want to prepare for that contingency and hope for the explosion higher.

Calls are 153k to 83k puts and most of the big action was on the spread side. It appears the Nov4 140 calls traded some 5600 contracts today at the Bid and 3,000 of the Nov 125 Puts, so I am thinking this was a spread with overweighting to the call side.

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10/30/16 - This week is FB earnings and with the lack luster moves from everyone else, maybe this one will be the huge winner we have been looking for. Usually there is at least one big Lotto trade winner at earnings and I am hopeful FB will deliver us a good profit! This last week of trading the stock put in a new all-time-high at $133.50 which is significant because it contains the number "33" so we need to ready for a good move this week. If they disappoint then all these SGB zones will prove to be the TOP going forward and I will be aggressively shorting post earnings if they do miss. A surprise beat and this stock is poised to make a move beyond $150 this year so get ready for some action post earnings. Not if FB can move over $134.00 then I will get aggressively long.

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10/16/16 - Another SGB on Friday at the lower end of the recent sideways trading is giving more rise to shorting FB. The weekly chart has two reversal candles last week with a tombstone DOJI back on the week 9/9/16. If FB is going higher, then we need to see it clear out all of this range and a break down into that big SGB zone back on 7/28/16 is where I will be looking shorting with a strict stop. If I do get shorts on, I will definitely have some weekly lotto calls in place. Any move over $129 is to be considered very bullish and traded accordingly and a move under $126.55 a cautious short. Calls are 128k to 99k puts in open interest so bias is slightly bullish. SGB's at top ranges have proven to be excellent short entry points but when it is earnings season, that is skewed until the news is out.

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10/13/16 - Since my last comments, FB has been in a tight range for weeks and appears to be ready to make the next move. Once the stock moved over the last SGB zone it has been stuck in a $3 range topping out with another SGB DOJI which was just under the all-time-high at $131.98. Earnings are still a bit off (1/2/16) but we should start to see some movement next week as earnings season kicks in. The weekly chart has matching reversal sell-candles that investors are surely ready to trade off of, so a move over them is a potential start of an earnings run. As long as FB holds above the bigger SGB zone, the bias is bullish. Speaking of bullish, currently the call volume is 149k vs. 77.9k on the puts side. This makes for a good contrarian setup and if they disappoint at earnings time we could be for a multi-month decline. Last year at this time this stock traded in the same range at $100-$105 and now a year later it is up almost 30% so get ready for some volatility. Today there was a huge 4900 call sweep on the Oct21 125 calls so somebody placed a HUGE bet this stock will be higher my next Friday or they are selling covered calls which is more likely since that trade was a $1.4 million bet for a weeks time. The wild card is the Presidential election which is just after FB releases earnings.

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8/21/16 - FB has been sliding lower since my last comments showing that huge earnings SGB and the past couple of days have produced DOJI's so we are getting very close to a bigger move in FB's near future. As long as the stock is under the SGB zone the bias is short and until it can get over this zone we do not do aggressive longs—only lotto plays. When the news broke that Proctor and Gamble (PG) was pulling back on advertising on FB new targeting software platform. I am sure that is what killed the momentum in this stock as big fund managers are no doubt calculating the cost of that move and deciding if it will be a deal killer or just a blip in FB's grand scheme of revenue generation. Last week there was news that FB is going into the gaming sector but even that could not lift the stock by Friday so now we are in place for the hammer to drop if no bigger revenue generating news hits the wires. I am going to start in on some bearish strategies and fish for some Lotto calls. A continued drop and I expect FB to test the next SGB zone around $119.00 so a butterfly spread around there could have some good potential. The stock is currently in a Bear 180 sitting at T1 and continued selling down to T2 or T3 puts FB right into the SGB zone.

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8/7/16 - A nice week of trading in FB as it pulled back to test the resolve of the earnings bears and it appears they have lost the battle as the bull drove the stock higher Thurs and Fri but it was on average volume stopping right at the bas of the earnings SGB. As I have pointed out below, I want to see it trade over $126 and then I will get aggressively long with a tight stop at $124.00. Until the stock can take out this SGB it will be vulnerable to selling pressure and maybe even a top our reversal so keeping your fishing orders on puts until this stock clears over $133.91 is something a seasoned speculator will want to be doing. If you are more of a long term trader, then look at selling LEAP puts now and adding over $133.91.

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7/31/16 - Be aware of the number "33" when trading stocks and options. There is significance in that number as evidenced multiple times on this site. Well, FB has proven it again by posting a bubble high of 133.91 after earnings were released and again a high on the daily chart of $128.33! This, to me, is inside "code" for those that are being told when a top or bottom is in play. If you look at the daily chart, you will see that FB was in a precipitous declined the entire trading day from post market / pre market and all day trading on Thursday which resulted in a huge SGB Bear Elephant bar. Then in the Friday pre-market open, we get another SGB to start the day telling us the big money was getting OUT of FB. So, now we have two points of interest on FB going forward where we can make better decisions. I am looking to see if FB falls to $121 which is a strong Fibonacci support and then I want to see if it can take out that Friday pre-market opening SGB which is where I will get aggressively long over $126.00

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7/27/16 - FB beats both top and bottom estimates and the stock takes to a new all time high in after hours peaking at $133.91 before settling at $128.92. The call went well and it appears investors will be buying into this one tomorrow. I expect there will be upgrades and accolades in the coming days so I plan to fish for a WW trade and will be selling some put premium. If we do get a sell-the-news event, I want to see FB hold over $121 the rest of this week and then I will get more aggressive on selling put premium.

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7/25/16 - Tomorrow is the big day for FB investors as they are set to release earnings for Q2. The chart is showing a lot of bullish sentiment so if they miss the drop is going to blow right through the last SGB zone and a beat we are off to the races for blue skies ahead. Call sentiment is still almost 2:1 over the Bears but that can certainly change on a moments notice so I am going with short term calls and longer term puts.

The longer term charts are very bullish; however, we are now in the 13th quarter of up moves so FB either goes parabolic from here or takes a very steep decline back to $100 or maybe even lower.

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7/19/16 - The SGB Bearish Engulfing zone was take clearly out this week primarily on news that Google was dropping their efforts at a VR headset; which was in direct completion with FaceBook's Oculus Rift VR Headset; and also news that the VR business would be a multi-billion dollar money maker in the future. Once that news broke, the shorts began to cover and now we have a close today at new all time highs. If this holds from here, FB is going to keep right on going and if they blow out the earnings, it's on for much higher prices from here. If they disappoint, then we know when to get aggressive on shorts with a huge SGB zone that stems back to the last earnings release. Unfortunately we did not get that pull back this week I was fishing for but when FB entered the SGB zone I started to put on some long plays and I hope you did to. We still have over a week until earnings are released but the momentum is in full swing and no negative news only means more upside to come. If you are looking for long plays, you can buy small to begin the trade, but you MUST fish for better prices because the IV is only going to get pumped up more and more and you do not want to pay inflated prices if you can avoid it.

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7/17/16 - This week we have two SGB's with two Bearish engulfing candles indicating FB is getting DUMPED. This is a perfect setup for Lotto trades because if they miss I expect a big drop down to the 200MA and lower and if they surprise again as before, new all time highs. We have a week and a half to go, so there should be some movement and SGB's are short signals. My idea is to fish for 116-118 calls if the stock falls to the 89MA on the daily chart. A move over the two SGB's and I am long shares this week and then will look at Puts before earnigns day. 

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7/2/16 - Getting ready for earnings season to kick off this week and FB should be a front runner with investors. Last weeks chart is showing moderate bullishness due to the lack of strong volume, but it could be the quiet before the explosion or storm depending on how they report the quarter. The stock tested the SGB zone on Wednesday and never looked back but news can change things rapidly and with all the crazy things happening in the world, FB is on the forefront of it with propagandistic type coverage. The lack of conservative viewpoints on their network is obvious while the consistent promotion of the chaos is prevalent. Public opinion is a very slippery slope that can bring a social media company to it's knees if they find themselves on the wrong side of skewing news so FB can be in for quite a ride in the future which is what we like to see...volatility. As we start the week, I will be watching for unusual option activity on FB, NFLX, AAPL, TSLA, GOOGL, CMG and NFLX to see where I think sentiment is headed. I am bullish on FB but I am never married to my bias and always ready to trade the direction of momentum. FB has to clear out of last earnings giant SGB and it's on for blue skies; however, a fail here and the 200MA is the easy target.

So far the IV is very low at 20.92% for the week, but as things progress, I expect FB to build a lot of IV momentum, so buying some month end calls should give us some nice appreciation.

Calls almost 2:1 over puts so sentiment is very bullish so far.

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7/2/16 - Time for FB to put up or get shut down as it trades in the current SGB zone. There is every reason to believe this stock can be a GOOGL price some day and the same can be said it will implode and trade back under it's IPO price. That is what makes a market and if you are on the right side of the move, well, you can get rich! So, what do we need to be looking for so we can get on the right side of a huge move? We look to trade around the SGB's! Those are the "keys" to knowing what the BIG money is doing and historically they are excellent SHORT signals on up moves and BUY signals on down moves at major support. With that said, FB does not have major support until the 200MA around $107 on the daily chart. When looking at longer time lines, I see the weekly has technical support at $112 which is where the 21MA is and $105 is where the Bollinger Band support would be. I am still a strong Bullish bias on this stock so any moves over the current SGB zone and I am long and strong. If the stock falls down this week, then I will be short from day-to-day with the intention of scalping to pay for some OTM lotto puts.

Recent news that is causing some concern is the moves made by CEO Mark Zuckerberg as he maneuvers the stock with a GOOGL type dual-class structure. This gives him permanent voting control which makes it almost dictatorial in nature; something a lot of fund managers do NOT like to see when investing in stocks for the long haul. I guess is just depends on how you view the CEO and his abilities to make great decisions and drive his company to new heights; however, how can you argue with those decisions when he who has the gold makes the rules? This also can "protect" share holders and employees because activist investors and corporate raiders cannot invade the company board since they no longer have access to buy class A voting shares. So, you either have faith in Zuckerberg and his ability to innovate, create and lead or you find a new stock to place your bets on.

Currently the charts are showing us SGB's which means big money was SELLING this news; however, when Brexit impacted all stocks (FB included) the rebound last week resulted in a nice rally back to the SGB zone ; which produced a second HIGHER SGB; and finally a DOJI on Friday. This gives us the PERFECT entry/exit points going forward, so I will be trading aggressively either side based on these SGB's.

As I noted on the last comments, all gaps get filled and that is what happened here. Note the stock is testing the 89MA which is where a lot of Algo traders make decisions, so be prepared for some post 4th of July fireworks this week with this stock.

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6/12/16 - The SGB zone Proved to be true as a solid short signal yet again. I was hopeful FB could make the breakout to higher ground, but as you can see from the chart, that was the TOP; and the slide lower has been the path since that DOJI on 5/27/16. Friday's close was EXACTLY at the bottom of the SGB zone, so now we have a similar scenario as the top; and if we get another DOJI that could be the beginning of a very BIG move. Stocks like FB are always very volatile, so fishing for entry prices is the best way to get in on the action; and that is what I will be doing this week ahead of Triple Witching Expiration. The daily chart is showing me a "M" pattern with a SGB, so bearish bias is the way to go until FB can get back over $120.00, but I am still bullish on longer term trades and will fish for Lotto Calls on an average of 10% OTM strikes.

For this week, I want to get some $113 puts in anticipation of a gap fill and fish for some Lotto calls.

 Quite a bit of large long term call options being bought indicating a potential UPSIDE coming this week.

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5/30/16 - I have been waiting for FB to get past this SGB zone or pull back into the previous earnigns gap zone and now it looks ready to make it's move to new all-time-highs. Friday's trade action pegged a DOJI close exactly at the high-body of the SGB so if we do get a move higher this week, we should expect a move equal or more to Thursday so my upside initial day-trading target is $212.21 and longer term I am looking for a $10 plus move on strong market reaction to FOMC and positive company news. My plans are to buy some long shares, sell ITM BPS and Naked Puts. I will buy any dips into the SGB zone and if the stock just falls apart at the bottom of the SGB zone under $117.00 then I will go flat.

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5/1/16 - FB is firing on ALL Cylinders and put in another surprise quarter. The good news launched the stock up to a new all time high of $120.79 and so far, it looks to be holding onto those gains in Friday's session. Of course the day after earnings is now a huge SGB so that give us the pivot point for our plays going forward. If the markets start the week off strong, I expect FB to be a leader of the pack and start the journey to $200 a share. I will buy any dips and will be selling longer term Naked Puts on any move over $118.00.

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4/26/16 - Tomorrow is the big day for FB and with AAPL getting whacked, it dragged FB down a little in after hours. Will FB be the victor in social media this quarter or will it also suffer like the others? Usually one of them is a winner and if it is FB then money will pour in. Of course if it disappoints and shows weak ad revenue and lower guidance, the drop could easily be 20% my Friday. Options close to the money are expensive but I am going to buy some $90 Wild Card Puts tomorrow. The lower support is the 200MA which is right in the middle of the last SGB zone so really bad news coupled with FOMC selling could drive FB well under $100 or great news and we are off to all time highs again.

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4/24/16 - The GOOGL miss spooked FB investors and caused a gap down reversal Friday but it was bought when the stock touched down at $109 which means BIG MONEY was there waiting for it. The question on those investors minds is most likely if GOOGL missed then maybe FB is taking market share and will surprise again. We should get a very nice move either way this week when they do announce so get ready. Calls to puts are very overweighed to the call side and there were a couple of very large Call buys for Apr and June. I will be watching tomorrow to see if there are even larger ones too.

If they miss, the drop will be pretty big maybe even below $100 and that is where I will have some Wild Card Lotto Puts.

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4/17/16 - FB had the makings of a very nice bottoming tail reversal last week, but when Zuckerberg started making overtures at his developers conference that indirectly connected to a potential Trump presidency, that spooked investors and the stock sold back off into Friday closing under the last SGB. I still think we can get some more upside action in the stock, but with NFLX and GOOGL reporting this week, I am thinking big money will come out of stocks like FB to get in on this weeks earnings action.

Another potentially negative news story was tweeted the FB employees were offering to sabotage Trump on the network. No matter what your political affiliation is, that kind of shenanigan can come back to BITE you HARD because social networks are by definitions, diverse places where members of ALL POINTS OF VIEW reside. FB should always be neutral with regards to how political and social information is flowed, but certainly not censoring it. Mr. Zuckerberg is free to say and choose whom he likes in politics; and if I were running that company; any person involved in deliberately sabotaging a political candidate would be out the door!

Facebook and its CEO Mark Zuckerberg are under fire today after it was learned employees asked their boss if they should sabotage Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

Facebook responded to the employee poll by saying it will not use its algorithms to influence voters in November. “We as a company are neutral,” a Facebook spokesman said in a statement. “We have not and will not use our products in a way that attempts to influence how people vote.” “We encourage any and all candidates, groups, and voters to use our platform to share their views on the election and debate the issues,” the spokesman added.—Still, there is an interesting subplot here if his employees are bold enough to even ask, imply or try something like that.

Ok, so with earnings still a week and a half out, we may get a second dip opportunity to buy some Lotto calls cheaper this week so I am fishing for more and then the day of earnings I will get some hedge puts in place.

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4/14/16 - FB had a bit of an upset day on the 13th that was quickly bought when it almost hit the 89MA on the daily chart. Today the stock held the closing low but I am sure the Bulls are on a slight edge heading into tomorrow. I will continue to buy dips now that I have seen the 89MA hold ground. With earnings almost two weeks out there will no doubt be some continued volatility so if you want to get into any new plays, be sure to fish for entry prices at least 34% below current BIDS. Also, the current Bull 180 is in full swing whit a sold test of T2 ($111.65), so any move over that is a good bullish bet to me. Another thing to point out is the current SGB zone the stock is hanging around in and we know they are good short signals; however, during earnings they are wild cards and the moves can easily be up vs. down. Oh, and if you are looking at the weekly charts, well, FB is in the grips of a Bear 180 and it is looking like the stock may finish this week out as a long tailed DOJI so the game is on for either side.

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4/12/16 - FB had a developer conference that stopped the recent selling so if this holds, we should see the earnings run start this week and a test of the $115 area. I am expecting a very solid move from earnings in either direction so I plan to stick to long side bias and will have some put in place at the release date. Today was a Bull 180 trigger exactly on the daily 50MA which is the battle ground going forward.

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4/10/16 - Nice sell off Friday on some news. I am looking for some long plays this week if FB holds the current SGB zone and if it fails it after any rebound, then I get aggressively short.

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4/6/16 - The breakout was a breakdown that caught us a bit by surprise; however, today the stock is holding the 20MA and buyers are stepping in. The Weekly chart is suggesting triggered Bear 180 signal but I think this stock has room to move higher so long as hit holds the 1/29/16 high of $112.84. If not, then I would expect buyers to jump in at the 21MA on the weekly chart.

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4/2/16 - The breakout is underway with a new all time closing high; and it's looking like FB will take out the intraday all time highs this week. With all the good news on Oculus Rift and positive FOMC this past week, investors are ramping up for another expected earnings beat; and that will make for some nice profits as we head into the beginning of earnings season. I posted a couple of great trades on  FB this week and I hope you were able to follow along and take advantage—now we start to build upon winners and compound profits with larger contract size.

At their current growth trajectory, FB could easily make it to $150 over then next 12 months; and if there are surprise announcement, that could happen much sooner. Of course as with a all high beta stocks, you have to have hedge plays in place for unexpected news and/or market events, but the bias is firmly bullish for 2016! If the Oculus Rift really takes off, it is being projected to become at least 10% of FB total Revenue and that would boost the stock price dramatically. Assuming FB can sell a projected 11 million headsets by 2020 (not to mention a ton of software and other supporting products) that could translate into $7 billion in new revenue for the company.

Looking over the longer time frames, we get some amazing insight and see how this stock has been a stellar investment if you bough in a long time ago and held onto the shares. I think this quarterly report is going to be a pivotal one because the company is emerging as the GIANT in social media and now they are starting to sell "product" with Oculus Rift and other projects coming. As a long term investment, you should just buy some shares and hold them for a decade and beyond, but we are traders, so we eat what we kill and right now FB is providing us a vast amount of trading opportunities to eat well!

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3/27/16 - FB has been building momentum for 5 weeks now and this week should be the breakout week or beak down. We have earnings coming next month so a little profit taking this week is not unexpected; however, any good news and I think this stock could easily move into the intra-day all time highs at $118.00. Thursday FB finished trading the Bull 180 just under T4 and the all time closing high of $113.20. A positive market and I see FB easily take out the intraday highs at $115.34 and beyond, so I am looking for long entry strategies on any dip no greater than 3% down. I plan to get some long shares on in pre-market Monday if futures are positive and the markets are poised to move higher. Should FB make a turn for the downside, this I view this as a level 1 Bear 180 setup and would be quick to take any profits on a dip at 3-5%.

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3/19/16 - FB is holding the line and prepared to make the next move as we head into earnings season now that the FOMC is out of the way. The markets are ready to rally again now that rates are NOT getting raised. This could be a very good catalyst for FB and others because they can now invest more capital for future growth confident they will have lower cost of borrowing. The wild card is the election cycle we are in and with the upcoming final primary and conventions, that will still have many investors cautious so we need to see another strong quarter with FB and it could be well on its way to $150. I am still watching day to day for anomalies to exploit and of course I want to always have some puts in place just in case things go bad. Friday was a SGB DOJI inside the previous days range so we can expect a move from here to be a pretty good one; however, if you are watching longer time lines, the monthly chart has a wide range sell candle last month; and so far FB has not taken out the high from two months back. This range is $20, so that will make for some good volatility if Friday's SGB proves out so I am fishing for lower entry prices with a continued long bias on this stock for now.

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3/13/16 - A solid week of trading as FB holds the 8 and 21MA on the weekly charts. This is poised for a much higher move if we get a positive FOMC rally this week and we could see new all time highs. The usual earnings runs will be starting after the FOMC news but you know the markets can always be unpredictable so when placing trades, buy some and fish for more at lower prices. With the company running on very positive momentum the expectations are going to bet set high in the coming quarter so I expect some nice IV increase and that is EZ MONEY if you just hold the line on longer term options. The way I plan to do this is by selling some ITM Naked Puts and I have NO problem taking ownership of the shares if that were to happen. Of course I will always be fishing in the 3% range for cheap Lotto trades all week too. The weekly chart has a squeeze starting which actually looked bearish and triggered a very nice bullish move, so, if the stock holds the ling at $105.22 or moves over $111.24 I am long and strong.

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3/6/16 - With the first week of March trading completed, FB only managed a slight gain on the weekly chart. The daily chart is still a sold Bull 180 but a test of T3 is coming this week. We also have a short signal indicator that kicked on so I will be looking at any pull back that holds T2 as a bullish entry point. If the stock make a move back over $110 then I am looking for T4 to be hit and maybe even the all-time-highs to be tested in the next couple of weeks. On the Monthly chart we want to see FB hold above the DOJI back in December to maintain a strong bullish bias.

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2/28/16 - FB had a decent week of trading rounding out the month with a good bounce and close above a 55% retracement of last months trading. So far the stock is holding above the Jan 2016 DOJI and that is what I want to see. News has been been very positive and upbeat; and in fact, Zuckerberg has gained almost celebrity status in tech circles. His past aggressive actions of buying WhatsApp and Oculous Rift which were viewed as exuberant spending by a young CEO) have now shown to be Oracle type moves as technology buffs are now clamoring to catch up in the future space.

The early moves he made with his company to gain market share in mobile based marketing has now proven to be where the smart money in ads are; and the acceptance by users has improved FaceBook's dominance in the space. Of course this translates into multi-billions in advertising revenue which will continue to drive this stock much higher. What makes things difficult is the company does not really offer "products" like AAPL at this time; and instead is driven by the very fickle public who continue to use the platform as their social melting pot of communications. This of course is always a wild card and subject to over night changes in opinion so that makes for volatility in the stocks month-to-month movements. With that being said, we need to start making long term trading decision based on the movements of the weekly and monthly charts to better plan direction. My bias has been bullish for all of 2016; and I will keep that bias as long as FB holds over $95.00.

What I will be doing going forward is keeping some DOTM puts at10% or greater in play week-to-week as a hedge against my long positions just in case things turn south quickly. My long term goal is to see this stock become the behemoth it can be; and one day trade in the ranks of GOOGL, AMZN and maybe even higher than PCLN!.

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2/21/16 - Now that FB is holding over the SGB the bias is long until it trades back into the SGB zone them we look for short plays under $101.00

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2/17/16 - Long plays triggered today when FB bounced off the SGB and trade above it. Now we have short entry if FB falls back under the first SGB at $100.55; otherwise the bias is LONG.

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2/14/16 - FB produced a SGB inside an old SGB zone on Friday and that means shorting is a higher probability; however, I would not be looking for a short until the stock trades under the 200MA. There is no doubt going to be continued volatility around this area so you have to FISH for lower entry points and take some profits until we get a clear price direction/momentum started. If the markets turn uglier, then it will drag FB down with it so these two SGB's on the daily chart just might be the top or the bottom. Tough to trade here because anything you buy or short will have a tight range so maybe selling Iron Condors would be a better opportunity to get some profits going. I am still in the Bull 180 with a strict stop at $96 as noted below so I will just stick with my current positions and fish for better spots this week.

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2/9/16 - Ouch, still some sellers hanging around, but this morning the shorts covered in mass and; however, selling came back in the afternoon session and FB closed slight down at a Fibonacci number of $-$0.21. This should be the bottom if the FOMC meetings are positive. I am hoping for a solid move higher in the coming weeks and if not, I want to see the 200MA hold the line and I will get very aggressive with longs if that is tested and holds for a day. FB is currently in a nice Bull 1870 setup so a green bar start and I am long shares tomorrow with a strict stop at 96.00.

FB has now pulled back and test the 55% mark from last years move and that is the bottom it must hold to keep the Bulls around.

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2/7/16 - Ok, is the selling over now? It certainly could continue all the way to the 200MA but I am thinking the 89MA is going to hold tomorrow and we are back on the mend to retrace all of last weeks profit taking. Tomorrow is the 5th trading day and ideally we would like to see it be the biggest down candle of the bunch which would become a perfect Bull 180 setup; however, if we do get a green candle started tomorrow, I am long shares with a strict stop just under Friday's low.

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2/4/16 - Two more days of selling off that DOJI should just about be over for FB if the Bulls have their way but the beating LNKD took in after hours, it may just drag FB down some more. I am thinking we may get a nice drop-n-pop tomorrow so I am going WW fishing in FB, GOOGL, NFLX, AAPL and LNKD.

If FB drops down some more, then I will be looking to continue selling Naked Puts, but I will short shares if the 8MA does not hold tomorrow and will reverse my position if it trades back up through T3.

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2/2/16 - Profit taking kicked in today after FB hit another new all-time-high and closed under yesterdays high as a long tailed DOJI. Is this the top for now or will there be a lot more upside? Well, that depends on how the markets trade because now that FB has shown some post earnings weakness, I am sure the bears sharpening their claws and licking their chops. For me, I think the Market Makers will be leaving the dinner table with their bellies full of bear meat after they squeeze them to death in the near future. Should FB bulls decide to continue taking profits the rest of this week, then I want to see it hold above a 55% retracement of last weeks range. If you decide to buy any puts, then take profits on the way down because once the market finds a bid FB will be a leader of the pack. If FB shrugs off today's move, then I am expecting it to hit at least $120.21 this week—I am still fishing for lower entry prices on calls and selling Naked Puts on dips.

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2/1/16 - New month of trading starts and FB takes off to new highs closing over $115.00! This is most likely going to be a regular occurrence all year and if the markets also turn to the upside, that will only fuel FB even more. It is time to start selling premium and/or naked puts, buy shares and speculate Wed-Fri on Lotto calls. I am going to start looking for my new DoubleUP plays on FB and building compounded contract size as we grow profits.

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1/28/16 - CHA-CHING!$$! We hit another Lotto WINNER!!! I took profits on the 100/105 and letting the 110's ride into tomorrow. I am WW fishing in the morning and then will start some long term plays next week. Price targets have been raised to $160 so long term LEAPS should be a good bet or just sell Naked Puts and keep collecting premium on the way up. Of course, this stock is vulnerable like any other one to market forces and other unknown events in the future so you have to be proactive and trade what is.

Trading was a bit of a roller coaster this morning but once FB put in a nice Bull 180 it was up up and away testing the all time highs. You can see that if stopped just shy of the 110.65 ATH and posted a 110.34 (.34 = Fibonacci) which indicated to me that was the TOP for today. If this super rally has legs, then we should see FB hold above that $105 morning dip and it's on for new highs in the future—maybe we get luckier than we have and it just rockets it to $115 tomorrow but if the markets drag it down, and we get anywhere near $100, I will be selling Feb Naked Puts.

.

The yearly chart is very bullish and we may have at least two years of upside in this stock as long as it holds above $92.00 on dips.

Here are the winning charts for my Lotto Plays!

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1/27/16 - FB beats on both top and bottom numbers, posts first BILLION DOLLAR profit and a 52-percent jump in quarterly revenue and the stock to EXPLODE HIGHER in after hours trading. If this holds up tomorrow morning we are going to make a ton of profits on the Multi-Lotto calls!!

Be sure to take some profits off the table. and sell the 100 and 105's, then you can let the 110's ride into Friday.

(Remember, if you do not take profits you cannot build your account and THERE IS ALWAYS ANOTHER TRADE COMING!)

Another way (if you have enough capital and day trading approval) to assure you make profits is to short enough shares in pre-market to cover your $100 and $105 calls. That way you will synthetically LOCK-IN the call profits you should have gotten at the open; then if it falls back to around $100 I would cover the short shares because I think the stock will most likely go back up into Friday and now you can hold onto all of the calls looking for that parabolic move.

This morning someone placed a $21.2 MILLION dollar bet that FB will be much higher by Jan 2017. This trade appears to be a straight buy but could have been a covered call.

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1/26/16 - Will FB be the earnings winner this week? AAPL was a dud so we will have to see what we get here. Today was another SGB so now we are in a 3x multi SGB zone and I expect a good move the rest of the week. In after hours FB did not get any bounce off the AAPL earnings so the appetite for speculators is pretty low. Once we do get those numbers and guidance, we will be able to make better trading plans going forward and I expect FB to be a very volatile stock this year.

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1/25/16 - Started the day out positive but markets pulled down everything and FB fell back into the SGB zone. I depending on AAPL earnings tomorrow, FB will most likely rally or fall in sympathy. Since we are in a multiple SGB zone, we know that is a short signal so buying longer term puts is advisable and if the stock surprises and takes off, then we just sell Bull Put Spreads and Naked Puts the day after. There were a lot of HUGE Put buys today so we need to take note of that and buy some too.

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1/24/16 - This earnings release will be a game changer for FB share price in 2016. If they beat again that will be the third straight beat and that should be the charm we need to take the lid off this stock and run it like a NFLX and GOOGL have in their early years. The IV is surprising LOW right now so that indicates Market Makers are not concerned the stock will surprise so this could be a HUGE advantage to us as speculators OTM because if they do surprise, and the markets take off, we may get a multi=day rally and CASH IN! If we get a miss, then it's most likely going to be a slaughter and the last SGB zone will be the TOP so I am going multi-lotto calls and getting Feb expiration OTM puts. Sentiment is bullish in the put/call ratio and some big spread bets were placed on Friday into April 2016. In the past two quarters, this stock did beat but the IV was so pumped up it failed to move enough to pay us off which was a BIG disappointment but I am confident this stock will give us plenty of HUGE paydays in the future so just keep working the trades and the profits will soar if not this week, then in future coming earnings releases—suffice to say, do not bet the bankroll on this one trade!

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1/19/16 - First day of trading after the long weekend and FB puts in a nice gap but sells down turning the daily candle into a SGB and also closing inside a previous SGB zone. Ok, so now we definitely have a perfect pivot point to trade from so I am looking for a move higher since the NFLX earnings were solid; however, if the markets continue to drop, FB is now vulnerable to also drop. I am sure every technician is looking to the 200MA as the "line-in-the-sand" but with earnings coming and the potential for huge growth, I believe we will have some upside. I am long shares and calls for now, but I certainly will be looking very closely to how it trades this SGB and 200MA before I commit more capital.

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1/17/16 - Are we in a see change on the FANG stocks or are they going to be long-in-the-tooth in the minds of investors? So far this year, FB and the rest of the stock market has suffered (what was talked about and expected for years) a first of year setback that was and is a record breaker and maker. Of course FB is going to succumb to the pressures but investors will be on the hunt for growth stocks going forward and FB should be a huge frontrunner. We have to be on our investing tippy-toes because FB is (like so many others) trading at a multiple of its earnings so that makes it vulnerable and exciting. So how do we trade it? We use the SGB's as our entry/exit/short/long pivots. That way, we have a clear delineation point to make decision so we do not get emotionally involved in the day-to-day hype. So, with FB currently at the 200MA and inside a the largest of the past SGB's we have to be initially cautious. Ideally we want to see the stock hold the 200MA this week so I play to buy shares on any positive open and then fish for lower entry prices on calls and naked puts. If the stock fails the 200MA, I still plan to fish long plays and will get puts on just before earnings are released.

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1/14/16 - Today was a very strong drop and POP off the 200MA with huge volume. With this strong move, it's looking pretty good that FB has found a bottom here but if the stock falls back to the lower SGB at 95.60 I will add some more. If we get a market wide rally kicked off tomorrow, then we should see FB start is earnings run back to the sideways channel around $104.00

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1/12/16 - Markets are ready to make a move as earnings season gets underway and FB is definitely poised for a big move either way. Yesterday it put in a bottoming tail SGB so a rally in the markets and I think it can move easily 5% by Friday. A capitulation sell off and the 200MA is the target down to $92.21. My plan is to buy on a positive open or wait for that big dip and buy there if negative open.

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1/10/16 - Are we having a capitulation event or will there be a lot more selling coming this week? This last weeks trading was one of the BEST down weeks we have had in a long time and it was actually the worst first week of January trading in the history of the stock markets. The long sideways channel on FB resulted in a collapse not because the stock is weak, but because the market forces just created a perfect storm of selling pressure that dragged down everything. This week is going to be a critical one in the minds of investors and with China markets not melting down on Friday after they removed trading curbs is a good sign that we are also finished selling. What you have to remember now is our markets are technically in "correction" mode that gets talked about all the time; however, what you have to look for is margin calls kicking in over the weekend. This is the type of scenario that creates Black Monday events and that is what we may very well have tomorrow. Should this be the case, you can expect FB to gap down to the 200MA at $93 which is also the base of the last SGB zone on the weekly chart.

I am confident there will be plenty of support buyers down there so if we do get that move, I am a buyer too once I see it put in a bottoming tail, then I will get aggressive on my long positions. We have earnings coming so there is no doubt a high probability earnings run is about to start. Ok, so the next trade idea is to FISH for entry points and take profits. Once FB can get back over the sell zone and two SGB zones on the daily chart, I am going to be cautious on size; however, I plan to keep buy some DOTM calls for that upside surprise announcement and short squeeze—I am not in FB for a week or day trade, I am in it for all of 206; therefore, I am managing my winners and mitigating my losing trades with premium selling and spreads.

I am going to speculate that FB will be higher than $125 by next Jan 2017 so I am going to buy some $125 LEAPS and sell weekly covered calls (Diagonal Spread) against them on rallies until I pay off the cost of the LEAPS.

Here is how you look do it:

The current cost of the Jan 2017 125 LEAPS are $5.25, so you divide that by 12 months and you have an average cost of $0.43. in premium per month to pay off the Leaps by expiration, so the goal then is to sell covered calls month-to-month to reduced or pay off your leap.

The upside with this strategy is long term appreciation over $125.00 per share by expiration.

The downside is a 100% loss on the LEAP if FB is not trading over $130.00 by expiration.

The goal is to reduce or erase your cost in the LEAP by selling weekly covered calls on rallies when IV is pumped up over 65%.

The risk is getting exercised on your covered calls if you end up ITM but you are covered on the LEAPS so you cannot lose, you just lose your position in FB so you simply start another one.

The remedy is either buy back the calls (if not too far ITM) and then wait to sell premium again or let it get exercised and start a new LEAP position.

So, with that said, I look to sell on up to 75% of the amount of LEAPS I control that way, if FB explodes higher, I will just let the position get exercised because my remaining LEAPS will be profitable. Then, if I like what the stock is doing, I can simply set up another one and continue.

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1/7/16 - We are getting the drop I was anticipating and now FB is testing the SGB from the top in July 2015. If we get a rebound from here, I am expecting a strong rally right back to the highs of December. The final blow out or capitulation event for me would be a drop to the next SGB zone at $94.00 and if it capitulates down to the last market crash SGB then I am sure there are plenty of bargain shoppers waiting there or pile drivers wafting at $100 again. I am in this stock for the long side and looking for it to be the next CMG or AAPL growth stock; however, I will be changing how I approach it if it cannot get back over $100 in a solid move.

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1/3/16 - Are you ready for 2016 and the huge gains FB is about to release to us? Get ready because my goal this year is to make well over $100k trading FB!$!

This year, I will be trading more of the Lotto Strategies and looking for solid SGB short signals. I plan to always have Lotto Calls in play up to 10% OTM and 20% OTM during earnings season. I expect FB to release a lot of news that will propel the stock higher or lower so I want us be there to capitalize on it.

Ok, so what are the charts telling me as we start 2016 trading.

Currently FB closed UNDER the last SGB zone and it would normally be a short but I am not interested in shorting FB until it closes under $100 or news changes my bullish bias. What I will be looking for is a potential gap fill down to $104 and I will looking for some long calls; however, if FB gaps open and holds above the SGB zone over $106, then I will get some 110 calls and sell some naked puts.

As we start off 2016, we need to look at longer term charts to get a feel for direction and bias.

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12/30/15 - We are finished for 2015 and now we try to speculate where FB will start off 2016. When the stock moved over the SGB zone on Monday, I started some long plays and will continue to be long until it takes out $104.80. We are finishing up n 8-week sideways channel which will result in a solid breakout our breakdown soon. With the anticipated growth prospects and expansion, the bias on FB for now is definitely on the long side so I plan to keep adding to my long plays and selling premium up to earnings. I expect FB to be a big winner for 2016 but we know anything can happen so you have to be ready for the moves and make the plays on both sides. The last two quarters have been quite the disappointment on movement post earnings and I am hopeful that will not be the case this time around. It appears this stock has a very hard time moving higher, even on good news, so a disappointment will easily produce a massive drop so I will have my lotto puts on when the time comes. Bullish sentiment in options is almost 2:1 on calls vs. puts so the crowed is expecting this stock to move higher too. Today there was a 3,134 Feb 16 115 call buy for 1.65 so someone out there is laying a huge $517,000.00 bet FB will be at least 10% higher by then and that is certainly attainable. Year to date, FB has been good to the buy-n-hold crowd with a +35% annualized move. Year-over-year FB has been rising almost equally for the past three years now and if that is a consideration, then we can maybe expect upwards of a $80 move this year should the powers that be take the lid off and let it run.

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12/20/15 - FB has been very volatile this past week making it difficult to profit with options. Now it has closed back under the SGB zone but I think that is more Fed related and this stock has a ton of upside coming. I am still looking for bullish positions and will cover my short shares over the SGB zone and get long the stock. If we get a drop on Monday, then I will take profits on the short shares and wait to see if it can trade over the SGB zone before I get long unless it drops under $100 then I will get aggressive with my long plays. As always, I will keep some Lotto calls in play at all times too.

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12/15/15 - FB finally dropped under the SGB giving us that short entry but failed to hit my initial target at $100 before investors jumped in driving the stock back to the SGB zone ahead of the FOMC decision. Well, tomorrow is the much anticipated announcement as to whether they will raise rates (expected to be 0.25%) now or continue to remain dovish into 2016. The markets are poised to make a good move on the decision and it is believed this will be more of a sell-the-news event if they do NOT raise rates. The question is how will a rising interest rate environment effect FB? I do not think it will make a large impact on the stock in the near term. Earlier this week it was announced that FB is planning on releasing a business social network to compete with LNKD and today they announced a launch of a Local-Services site—they are in constant development of new avenues to keep and gain more eyeballs to their network which translates into massive future revenue.

Once 2015 closes and 2016 begins, fund managers will be on the hunt for growth and FB is definitely a growth stock with huge upside potential. Once this stock finally broke out over $100 I was sorely disappointed it could not explode higher like GOOGL, NFLX have. There is just too many outstanding shares at 2.27B and with only 68% held by institutions there is still a lot of liquidity to be bought so that is keeping a lid on big moves. Once that dries up, we will see larger movements so for now it's more of a pick-your-spot trade.

With the current SGB zone in play, I have a short on but will reverse and go long if the FOMC is a positive event. I still have a very bullish bias on FB but I am always ready to trade the direction of momentum therefore, I will have puts plays in place.

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12/6/15 - What started to be a confirmed SGB short has been a bit of a roller coaster with a tight range between 104.00 and 107.00 so now we have a pivot point that will most likely not be resolved until the Fed decision on the 16th. Since my last comments, there has been a bit of interesting news from FB that has some investors confused and others praising the CEO. It was announced after the Zuckerberg's daughter was born (congratulations to them) that Mark intends to give away 99% of his FB stock to a foundation set up by him and his wife. Will that be a strong hold of confidence in the minds of investors if the CEO allegedly will no longer have a real or perceived financial incentive to run his company? I think they will resolve to support his decision and view it as a noble gesture that will do good for the future. I do not believe it will have a negative impact (at least for a while or until there is known information on what he actually does with the money) on the stock and as 2016 begins I am anticipating that FB will be one of of the top investments in the coming year.

Currently we still have a SGB that will make trading interesting this week and if FB manages a close under this zone, then I will be looking for long entry points.

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11/29/15 - We are now in the final month of trading for 2015 and I am sure investors are awaiting the final Fed announcement as to or if they will begin to raise interest rates. I do not think raising or keeping them steady will effect FB as much as other stocks, but I do think we will definitely see some good volatility moves in these final trading weeks. Friday FB put in a SGB short signal so we have our pivot point for trade entries and we will start tomorrow. If FB opens down and takes out the large Bear Elephant Bar on 11/13 then I will be looking for some LONG opportunities because I fully expect this stock to hold the $100 line and be one of the top stocks for 2016. I will continue to buy DOTM calls at or close to 10% away for the next 52 weeks with the expectation there will be some explosive moves coming as they continue to expand into new markets and vertical enterprises.

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11/15/15 - That DOJI held and investors took the profits this week breaking the long 8-Train trend. WE now have a post earnings gap fill and I am expecting a bounce Monday or Tuesday so get ready to catch the ride.

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11/6/15 - Investors took profits on Friday and now we look to see if FB can hold the gap or take out the DOJI. I am looking for my next entry points with longer term options as I believe this stock will now continue to grind higher from here on out.

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11/5/15 - I guess there is just no way the MM's will take the lid off FB because the move was pathetic compared to GOOGL, LNKD, AAPL, NFLX on such a great earnings beat. I was hoping for a nice $01 or higher move but it was not to be. I took profits on half my positions and will be adding longer term plays going forward as I believe FB will stay above $100 indefinitely and just keep chugging along higher. Price targets are coming out at $125 - $130 so we have some room to go here and premium selling is a pretty solid bet. I don't see the calls making us huge gains, but they will make consistent ones; however, you need to layer your buys and FISH for better entry points if you plan on doing size. If we get a market rally off the employment report I expect FB to attempt a new high and if we bet a decline, then I expect it to hold $100. I will be doing some additional WW fishing in the morning at the 108 strike since I was filled at the end of the day on the 110's. I plan to buy long positions on any dips that hold $100.00

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11/4/15 - FB beats on both top and bottom numbers and the stock takes off; however, it stalled barely over the expected MMM and interesting how it posted a bubble high in after hours of $109.34. After the conference call, the stock started to make moves again but could not take out that bubble high so I am hoping investors catch on and we get a nice rally going the rest of the week. I am going to be selling naked puts if the stock can hold over VWAP at $105.12 in pre market and inside the first 15 minutes of trading. The posted call plays should all be making gains so take profits on the short term plays and let the longer term ones run. With the company beating, expanding product lines and still gaining members, I do not see this being the "top" but anything can happen so we trade what we get each day, week, month and year.

I was hoping for a lot bigger move and it may still happen so we just need to be ready to make a move.

=

I would have liked to see a big directional bet placed today, but I am sure everyone was very cautious after the shellacking we got last quarter.

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11/2/15 - The big day for FB approaches and today investors came back to the bulls table driving the stock higher. It appears to me that $105 will be the battle ground and post earnings we could see a very big move in either direction so you have to have your straddles on and hope we do not get another DUD like last quarter. I bought in today on most of my longs and will be looking for more short term puts tomorrow or Wednesday. The IV remained pretty much unchanged and that is indicating the MM's are NOT expecting a very large move. Remember, last quarter the IV was well over 160% and this time the front weekly IV is very low at:

The options stats have changed quite a bit from Friday's but it still remains almost 2:1 bullish.

Still no BIG directional bets placed, but I am expecting to see some bigger action tomorrow.

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11/1/15 - What a pre-earning rally off the AAPL and GOOGL earnings driving FB up to $105.12 and then some analyst downgrades the stock and it falls on Friday all day. This is nothing more than a piker attempting to get in a cheaper price and that is what they accomplished. It's a good thing for us too because the IV was lowered and we are able to get in on some Lotto calls for a lot cheaper price. Last quarter FB was so pumped up it turned into a total bust on both sides of the action. I do not think the MM's will attempt that again so I expect a sizeable move this week in either direction. Of course I am bullish but I will have puts in place too because if they disappoint, $100 IS THE TOP and if they beat, the skies the limit but I am sure it will be very controlled initially. If they do beat and take off, I will be selling naked puts aggressively too.

Option Stats - Sentiment very bullish

Short interest not too heavy so a big squeeze is not expected to help lift the stock; however, anything can happen and when a stock is in all time high territory, there shorts are usually already out so if they disappoint, the drop can be bigger than the rise.

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10/22/15 - And FB FINALLY HITS $100 but did it in after hours trading hitting $102.61!!

 What a day it was trading in FB. There was a lot of volatility in the morning session and then the stock just kept on rising all afternoon. I am hopeful we get a gap up tomorrow over $105.00. The strange thing about this is NO ONE was mentioning the stock was trading at $100  into the close. To me that is a massive milestone for the stock so now we have to be ready for a lot of volatility to kick in since earnings are still two weeks off.

Now that it took out $100, I am hoping it just keeps right on going; however, this stock is very fickle and we could easily see it drop back under $100 so I am fishing for a WW Put trade at the open and managing my other trades taking some profits off the table. With AMZN and GOOGL killing it on earnings, we should se FB rally even more as the IV will really begin to pump up. If the stock can hold over $100 in the first hour of trading, then I plan to sell a lot of naked put premium into next week.

Here are the closing prices for this weeks options:

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10/20/15 - Ooooohhhhh...sooooo...close! What is it with this stock not taking out $100?? I think the MM's are just playing with us now and when this stock does take out $100 it will be by a gap over and never looking back; but if that is not the case then this will be a story to tell and nothing but pain if you are too heavily invested on the long side. I plan to have some puts in place at earnings, but for now, I will get long shares on any rebound tomorrow or any pull back to the SGB zone.

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10/19/15 - Looks like FB is about to hit $100 way ahead of earnings and could be tomorrow! If they bust out over $100 and post a strong quarter, then it's on for 2016 and of course if they fail to meet expectations then $100 was the TOP. I have several plays working and all making nice profits so let's hope this boat ride is not a Titanic.

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10/11/15 - FB has been showing signs of putting on a earnings run but that is still three weeks off making it a bit of a crap shoot to get on board now. This is actually the time you start to load up because IV is still low and once the buying starts, the OTM calls will just appreciate in value and/or hold prices if you start now. There is always the unexpected news stories that can negatively impact us, but I am a bull for FB to finally take out $100 and that is where I am going to keep laying my bets. If we do get the pre-earnings run up, then I will definitely have longer term puts in just before earnings too. What I do not want to see is any SGB's, and what I do want to see is FB take out the SGB zone on the weekly chart at $96.00. If it can get over it this week, then I am putting on my bull game face and will get more aggressive on long plays early with the anticipation investors and market makers will kick FB well over the over the $100 field goal at earnings time.

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10/7/15 - FB was all over the place today starting with a nice gap up in pre market that was sold off and then rebounded a little bit into the close of trading. Not much activity in after hours so it's unclear as to what is going on with this stocks erratic trading today. There was some news about how Zuckerberg sees how his $2 Billion dollar Oculus technology (toy) will ultimately fit into the FB model and how they are expanding the messenger app to start letting you book handyman and house painter services etc. The bottom line for FB's future is how they can monetize those billion plus eyeballs and that is the wild card that will make or break the company, that is if Zuck does not break the bank with more multi-billion dollars spends. Here is how I see things coming up, FB will stick around it's current price range of $90 - $95 and if we get what we want out of earnings, then we see it take out $100; however, if they disappoint, it's likely to be a dump back to the $70's. So far this week, FB failed to make it over the low end of the SGB on the weekly chart and now it is setting up this week as another SGB and we know all too well the SGB's are the short signal so I am beginning to pick up some puts just in case this proves to be the top like it just did on TSLA.

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10/4/15 - Nice run on Friday and the weekly chart has a HUGE Dragonfly Doji which is typically a bullish indicator so it's possibly on for FB to make that run to $100 this time around. If they disappoint at earnigns time, we may just get a massive lotto trade on puts; but I am looking for this stock to blow out $100 and take off all of 2016.

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9/27/15 - Ok, the Jewish holidays are over for now, the tetrad moons are done and the world did not end so it's back to business as usual and FB is on the minds of future thinkers. So far, the weekly SGB is proving to be a short but I am not interested in aggressive shorts on FB at this time with earnings season about to kick off. I am intere4sted in looking for better long entry points so I am fishing this week to get things started.

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9/20/15 - We have FB stopped exactly at the lower end of the SGB so if we get over it aggressive longs and under it cautious shorts or just look for a better long entry point for now.

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9/16/15 - FB has been steadily rising all week into the FOMC announcement and if the outcome is bullish then FB should make a strong move on Friday, maybe just run right up to $100 way before earnings are released next month. The stock has been upgraded this week with a price target of $105 and that is feeding this rise. I have puts in place as well as overweighting of the calls so I am ready and you should be too.

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9/13/15 - FB is ready to make a move to $100 and if the FOMC on Thursday does not make a market upset, then FB is going to be one of the leaders to new heights into 2016. I have said that even if they raise rates, the buy buttons will be turned on and we go higher. There is always that chance for disaster, so I am picking up some Puts as a hedge too. I have been long in various strategies since FB held the line at the SGB and will remain bullish the rest of the year.

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9/6/15 - So far the SGB has not been entered and if it holds, then we have a long setting up. FB is currently at the top baseline of a long term channel so I am looking for a rally this week on any positive market moves. Should the stock move down into the SGB zone then I am only looking for more long entry points; however, I may short shares for a day trade.

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9/2/15 - Took profits on my naked puts. Fishing for more long calls looking for a continued rebound but if FB falls back to the SGB zone I will short some shares for a short term trade. Note the close was 89.89 which is a Fibonacci sequence number so get ready to trade off that number. I want to see it hold 89.34 - 89.55 or I am looking at shorting into the SGB zone. A move higher I hope to see T2 or T1 reached in the near future. There is the SGB zone at $94.50 to watch for too.

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8/29/15 - The markets came roaring back and so did FB. We now have the perfect pivot point with the SGB but I am liking the price action and looking for more upside to continue. My thinking is if the Feds actually raise rates this September, they will continue with quantitative easing and turn on the buy computers to lift the markets higher. Then, if earnings are good, we will most likely see a huge end of year rally and FB takes out $100...FINALLY! So, I am still fishing in OTM calls up to the $100 strike and as FB continues to climb I will move my strikes accordingly. This coming week will be a test of the rebound buyers resolve so we need to see more upside coming; however, if things go down again, I want to see FB hold $85.50.

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8/19/15 - What a beating FB has taken since the SGB top on the daily and SGB from two weeks back. I hope by now you are taking advantage of these even if I do not have a trade idea posted because sometimes, I just miss them with all the other things I have to do to keep this site content updated—I am an army of one at the moment.

Today the stock bounced nicely off long term weekly support but closed at the 200MA on the daily chart so we need to see it recover past the 89MA to get the bulls back in charge. I am still a strong bull and looking at this pull back as only another buying opportunity (albeit a cautions bull for now) to get in some bullish plays. I will be watching how the stock trades the rest of this week with anticipation this (much needed) market world wide sell off is what we needed. Of course there could be some more coming because today there was no doubt heavy margin calls which means a lot of small investors were wiped out so they wont be coming back too soon to buy in again. That leaves us with the institutional type investing which is what controls most stocks price action anyway.

Now that the stock is beat down under $90, I am going to lighten my call load and lower my strike price as I plan to keep buying calls no further than 10% OTM every week.

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8/19/15 - FB wants to go higher because the markets have been very volatile this week and FB is just hanging around inside the current SGB on the weekly chart. I was hoping for bigger dip this week so I could make a few bucks on some short trades; however, the stock just does not want to move lower. Of course I do know the SGB is my pivot point for shorting and I am still going to just keep buying $100 calls as long as FB can stay above $90.

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8/16/15 - Friday ended the week of trading with a SGB? Are you serious FB investors? Where is the confidence in your trading?? I still believe this stock wants to go up, but I know the SGB's and therefore, I have to now be very cautious until FB takes out the weekly and the daily chart SGB's. I will still keep fishing won calls no greater than 10% OTM every week in anticipation they will emerge victorious and the lid will be taken off. Of course, I trade what the markets give me so I am more than willing to short too.

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8/12/15 - FB was looking like a breakdown and I was filled on my short entry; however, news today came out they are releasing what is believed to be a TWTR killer app so the stock reversed off a gap fill and I covered my short. In the current trading range this stock is at, shorting is a risky business so I am still buying $100 Lotto Calls and looking for that launch. Can it happen? Sure, but we also know the stock could top out here with those SGB's. Bottom line for me is still overall bullish bias and I will be ready at the SGB zone.

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8/2/15 - Where will FB head now? I think it is ready to move over $100 and last weeks massive disappointment was a very big money grab by the MM because when they are ready to take the lid off FB it will be a HUGE mover so you have to keep laying Lotto orders every week and in the coming 52 weeks we WILL make profits!!

I am going to start a compounder series on FB, so my strategy is to keep a couple of longer term puts and/or short shares and then I will keep buying minimum of 5x my short positions of weekly calls at 10% or less OTM, because I believe that when this stock gets going, it will initially leap out of the gate for a couple of days. This will take tolerance to drawdown for an indefinite period so if you do not have enough capital, then stick to my regularly posted lotto trades.

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7/29/15 - Oh what a disappointment so far. They beat on earnings and the stock just gets flat lined...so far. We could still get a big move going but with out that initial wild move, it will be extremely hard now because all that resistance at $100 will be left to investors just trying to get money back. I have seen stock do this in the past and then catch a bid and take off so we hope for the best and move on to the next trade opportunity because there is ALWAYS another trade coming.

This stock is running on ALL cylinders and it we will find that magic moment when the big funds take the brakes off and hit that Buy Buy Buy button.

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7/28/15 - Can you believe the MANIPULATION in how somebody prices the MMM. 777 which is believed to be lucky, at least that is what all the slot machines have on them, and sure don't see too man of those 777's lighting up around here—and I live in Las Vegas!

Ok, so maybe this may be the lucky 7's we need and FB just gets the lid taken off of it and funds are ordered to BUY BUY BUY at any price. Oh won't that be nice if it happens! Still, I have plenty of trades in place and puts too so get ready for a roller coaster ride in the next couple of day.

Oh, and did you see the PERFECT BULL180 today on the DJI? If this holds after the FOMC announcement and FB beats hold onto your seat!

HUGE Spread trade today for Friday expiration!

This is HUGE money to lay on the line for two days, you have to believe somebody KNOWS something!

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7/27/15 - Look at what we got today...a DISCOUNT! I bought some more Call positions and will look at some PUTS on Wednesday before earnings are announced. The chart is looking VERY Bearish and that is when you speculate to the upside because if the big money is ready to take the lid off FB then this stock is going to EXPLODE higher from here. Of course the 64 million dollar question is will move well over $100 this week? I/we sure hope that is the case, but rest assured, this stock is going to make a move with this type of chart.

Aside from the earnings, we have a major catalyst in the FOMC decision on Wednesday!. Will this be the time Yellen says she is going to announce the beginning of higher interest rates? The consensus is NO since there is no planed news conference, but if it's telegraphed they will definitely  start it this year, it will most likely kill any rally in FB one would think. But hey, stocks have been know to forget news and counter trend to the market conditions; and if FB kills it on earnings, then money is going to flood into growth companies as it leaves flat or no momentum stocks.

What I also want to point out is the DJI is now set up for a very nice BULL180 and if we get a green bar started, we are on for a potential huge rally! Just be sure to have some calls on the VXX as your hedge because as much as I am accurate at times, when I am wrong, I am 100% RIGHT!.

If we get the BULL180 started and FB beats, we could be in for a massive move in the coming months!

Unusual option activity for today:

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7/26/15 - Getting ready for another exciting week of trading and hoping FB can put on some gains like we have seen in NFLX, GOOGL, AMZN after earnings. The charts are looking ready for this stock to make an impressive move and we can only speculate what that move can be. I for one, want to see it move at least 20% and it has done this in the past but can it actually move even more than that? Currently the MMM is pricing in a +/-9.925 so if we get that explosive move, FB is poised to move over twice that.

I have been anticipating FB takes out 100 for over two years now and it is either going to do it in a very big way or get crushed in my estimation. I am full on Bullish and overweighed with all types of call plays, but I do have puts in place too just in case.

I have been posting unusual options activity all week, and Friday was another good sized trade.

I have not seen too many big speculation direction trades, but as the earnings approach we should continue to see more call volume pick up. As you can see, the bullish bets in this stock are substatially higher than the puts so we have to make SURE we have some puts in place, because if they disappoint (not likely) the stock could see a massive correction especially with double SGB's on the daily chart.

This chart is typically a very bullish setup; however, we do have to give some concern to the SGB's but lately, the SGB's have been less than effective and stocks have made impressive rallies. Still, I have proven these SGB's are excellent short signals so we need to have some puts in place.

The DJI was getting whacked all last week, and not it is setting up to be a Bull180 so if that finds a bottom and rallies, it will add fuel to the FB fire if they blow out numbers; but if the DJI is still weak, that can keep the upside action in FB muted in the short term.

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7/23/15 - Nice dip all day today giving us a chance to pick up some calls a little bit cheaper, but with the IV getting pumped up the calls barely dropped in price and in after hours, the stock  rallied on the AMZN news. I am still going to buy some more calls tomorrow and I will wait to buy some slightly OTM puts on earnings day. I am hopeful FB will finally get the green light from multi-billion dollar hedge funds and just shoot straight up like NFLX, GOOGL and AMZN have. Can it run up over $50 - $100 like the others have? It seems highly unlikely, but you just can't predict it so you need to Lotto Trade it and hope to CASH IN! If they disappoint that SGB from Tuesday will be the TOP so we want to buy more time on the puts next week.

Another round of HUGE contracts purchased today.

This person or fund is laying a HUGE $8.3 MILLION dollar bet

Traders reduced their position in the front week 100 calls

Next weeks 100 strike has the MOST action and open interest so FB has to really surprise to get thing moving in a very big way beyond $100.

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7/22/15 - The selling was light and FB held ground all day so it is still on for the stock to blast through $100; however, will it be the big upside surprise we hope it can be? I know I have been expecting this stock to get a move on for a couple years and technically it looks ready but with that big SGB in place yesterday, that could very well be the TOP and down we go on a miss. I have over weighted the calls but I certainly have my puts in place and I put on a LEAP strangle so I am covered. I plan to buy some more puts next week the day of earnings and then I am ready for the next Mega Lotto Trade!

The latest big contract trade today appears to be another strangle trade:

There was a ton of volume and Open Interest on this weeks $100 strike, so I am thinking the MM's will be doing level best to put a cap on the $100 action the rest of the week if they can.

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7/21/15 - With AAPL missing and getting beat down in post market, FB also gave up some ground. In the pre-market the stock almost hit $100 so in my book, it did, FINALLY!

That move was not followed up after the open so I am still looking for that upside surprise next week. Now that we have some volatility in the space, we may get a dip tomorrow so we can buy some 105 calls on the cheap. The stock put in a SGB today indicating a potential bearish move is eminent, but we will use this as our pivot point for entry/exits.

I am still going to speculate to the upside but I also have puts with more time just in case it turns for the worse.

A big Strangle order was placed today on the Jan2016 strikes. If that was a naked spread  its a crazy bet, so I think it's a Debit spread the spent a HUGE amout of money one so they believe the stock is capable of exceeding 110.93 on the upside and 74.07 on the downside.

I am going to do this Debit Spread Strangle tomorrow.

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7/20/15 - FB is in striking distance to just gap open over $100 tomorrow! There was another HUGE call contract buy today too!

Red is indicated at a SELL so they may be selling a covered call here.

If FB gaps over $100 tomorrow or fails to get over it, I am selling ALL my July Wk4 calls and rolling out to JulyWk5

More strikes finally opened up for JulWk5 out to the 108 strike price so I picked up a bunch for a Wild Card Lotto trades.

We do have to consider the stock might disappoint, so next week, we need to look at some puts if you are inclined to want a hedge play in place.

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7/18/15 - WOW FB dang near made a run to $100 last week with all the excitement of NFLX and GOOGL going on. Could it really be the time that FB finally kicks it into supersonic and takes out $100 in a big way? I certainly hope so and with Friday's gap up 4.53% move on huge volume. you have to be thinking it will definitely do it—maybe even get there on Monday.  the current swing trades are big winners so far, so lets see if we get that continuation gap up on Monday so we can take some profits and roll them into JulyWk5 calls!!

This week is AAPL, AMZN, GPRO, CMG which means a lot of money could be diverted to those plays and FB may just take a break but I think it will just keep right on track and blow past the century mark.

I want to point out that the MM do not even  have strikes available over $100 on the July Wk5 expiration which indicates to me they KNOW this stock is going over $100 because if it was not an almost sure bet, they would have already added higher strikes—they do not want anyone getting an edge on them.

So, the play for now is to buy what they have and hope more strikes get opened up next week (which I think will definitely happen) then you can add on for that MEGA LOTTO trade. Think about it, if they do beat, the momentum will kick in and I am sure there are millions of orders waiting just over $100 and that will just add massive fuel to the rally fire and maybe take FB up over 20% after earnings.

Of course, if they disappoint, I expect the stock to be whacked back to the 89MA so needless to say, I will overweight calls and have my puts in place with longer time lines.

I am going to do some $100 LEAPS on FB too. Jan2017 are $12.70 and if FB really takes off, it could maybe get to $500 by then. I am also going to pick up a couple 2017 80 Puts too.

There was a MASSIVE call buy on the Aug15 105 calls so you have to think they may know something!

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7/12/15 - FB put in a pretty big SGB that was erased on Friday, but that was most likely due to the market wide rally so now we have a strong pivot point to trade off of. I fully expect FB to now make the run to $100 and beyond if they make the earnings grade with analysts.

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7/6/15 - We are looking at the next potential mega trading stock for the rest of 2015 and the next couple of years. FB is poised to explode higher if they post yet another great quarter. With TWTR basically cat food and a buyout candidate, the social media giant is going to FB for the next decade. Once this stock moves over $92.55 its on for way beyond $100 a share so get ready to build long term positions and cash in on tons of lotto trades!$$!

The markets have been in a selling mode for the past few weeks, but FB has been in a major Bull Elephant counter trend so when the SPY and DJ30 get going again, FB is going to be a major front runner as investors will be mainly focused on growth companies. With the old growth winners like GOOGL, AAPL, NFLX, LNKD, CMG and PCLN are all pretty much spent, so money will definitely be moving out of those and into younger more aggressive companies like FB and if you can stomach the price, AMZN.  Now do not get married to the idea of FB going to the heights of GOOGLE, NFLX, AAPL etc, but it certainly can happen; however, we are traders so we look for opportunities on both sides of the action and lay our orders.

Today, FB tested the top of the last bull elephant bar and met with some light selling which is still bullish, but we want to see it take out the Fibonacci price of $89 on good volume to really get the $100 momentum going. You may notice they closed the stock at $87.55

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6/28/15 - Have you been playing long in the FB sandbox? If so, you have made some HUGE gains since my last commentary and it is looking like FB is FINALLY going make it past the century mark in its near future! The company has been building, building and BUILDING momentum for a very long time and the past weeks move has shown us big money fund managers are showing up to build their next sand castle fortre$$. Why would I use "sand" as my basis for comparison? Because even though FB is shaping up to be a fantastic stock, it's still a "FAN" based company and the winds of change can easily cause a lot of shit to hit that fan—FB is a people business and, well, people are fickle at best.

I personally do not use FB as you know, I have never really posted anything on it with OptionRadio, but I know the site has a powerful presence in the minds of it's users that can either be a great ride or dismal  embarrassment fueled by insidious dweebs have nothing better to do than gripe all day—only said in pun not meant to offend any of you if you participate in FaceBook ;-)

Ok, so what can we do to profit while the company rides high in the minds of the public? We can put on our GameFace and profit!

I am going to start fishing in the 100 strikes all of July looking for that big announcement event and another record quarter coming up in late July!

I believe that once FB closes over $90.00 it is ON for $100+ so any trades over $90 and I start picking up on $100 - $110 strike prices.

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6/9/15 - Interesting day today as FB close UNCHANGED. The last time this happened the stock sold down sharply for a week. Today the action was all over the place but the stock did ounce above the last SGB so there is our pivot point to guide us. We also have the close above the 89MA and the 200MA as strong support so any dips to the 200 will be tested with buyers. The IV is flat so there is no juicy premium to sell; however, it's a good time to speculate on OTM calls or puts depending on your bias. Mine is more bullish, but the weekly chart is looking VERY bearish so if that SGB zone is touched into then I get some ATM puts in place. If you go for any options, then you need to buy more time and take profits at a double or triple if you can get it.

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5/31/15 - FB is testing the last SGB zone so a move higher is long and under is a short.

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5/22/15 - We got a nice 20% compounder trade on FB! I am going to continue doing these and build contract size.

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5/17/15 - Well, that SGB proved again to be a solid short signal especially when the earnings reaction was a dud. I guess FB is just never going to get to $100 until I finally give up on it and call it a strong short...LOL. It seems that if you actually do the OPPOSITE of everything I post on FB you would make a lot more profits. I just cannot seem to ever get this stock right as much as I get it wrong. Ok, so what brilliance do I have for you now you may be asking. My answer is to just keep fishing for OTM calls and there will be a day in the future when this stock explodes well over $100 because that benchmark number has been a very long time coming in the minds of millions of investors and once it does get there, I think it will just fly right on buy and never look back. So, when this stock is within 10% of hitting the century mark, that is when you start to fish on the $105 calls. In the meantime, I plan to just fish my usual swing trades and sell premium spreads for now—the company is making money now so that should keep buying pressure on any dips to major moving averages.

I am going to try a new strategy with compounder trades. I am placing orders on three strikes at a 34% discount to current prices and then placing a GTC order to sell at 20% profit on 90% of the contracts. This is an experiment type trade so if you follow along be aware it could be a total bust.

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4/21/15 - Last time FB did not make any moves on earnings but maybe this time it will finally make the move to higher ground and $100 a share if they have a strong mobile quarter. The charts indicate everything is ready for a move higher; however, today we get that SGB but I am felling like it will be the support marker this time.

Options are pretty cheap even with a 71% IV so I am going with a closer strike on the calls, but I am also going to gamble a little with the 95 calls just in case things explode higher like NFLX did.

Big contract load for this week on the 87 Call but says spread trade so appears no big funds believe FB is going a lot higher so we will have to see what happens the rest of the week.

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1/28/15 - A nice beat but the stock trades down to flat in after hours? Wow, what a dud this turned out to be. Of course the market wide sell off after the Fed announcement was not help but we still have two days and who knows what can happen with investors.

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1/27/15 - Since AAPL did not explode higher, maybe FB will be the one this week.

Multiple SGB zones and today FB closed UNDER the last one which is very bearish, but with a solid beat and higher guidance, we could very well see this stock on the road to $100.

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1/7/15 - Can you get any better short signal than a double SGB? If you were shorting off the SGB's (as I have pointed out more than enough) then you should have made some excellent profits these past 8 trading days! Now that the stock bounced on my T4 line, and it has been 8 trading days, I am expecting an earnings run to start up soon. If the company blows the doors off estimates again, then I still believe we can see $100 and beyond; however, we can NOT get married to opinions and ideas—those are account killers!

We need to just work our trade entry points and KEEP FISHING because the rewards of trading FB can be BIG ONES!  In fact, you may just want to trade FB exclusively all year!

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12/28/14 - Can the FB hold the line here? The last two trading days have been SGB's and that FRUSTRATES me to no end. I got pretty aggressive this last week on FB and even though I made some profits, I did not make anything close to what I was anticipating. I am confident this stock will see $100, but I am not expecting that by the end of this years trading. It will take some really BIG news other  than they typical upgrades and price targets to really get this one moving in a very big way. There is always a very high possibility the stock could fail and drop dramatically, so keeping a few OTM puts would be prudent if you are aggressive on the long side.

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12/22/14 - FB has been on a rocket ride since last weeks upgrade and $91 price target. News that the company's side business, Instagram, has now accumulated more subscribers than Twitter and that has investors all worked up that FB is going to be the growth stock for 2015. All I know is we are making some MONEY and if FB can keep on moving higher, then we are in range for it to blast right through $100 in January, and if they have a blowout quarter again, well, take an instagram of all the CASH your going to make on Lotto Trades in 2015$!$

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12/13/14 - FB is making some interesting moves this past week as the markets are essentially melting down. This shows me that the current selling environment is more related to oil than actually panic and once that news is played out, if it has not already done so last week, then we should see FB bust a move higher and take out the all time highs on strong market moves and any positive news. I am still hopeful FB will hit $100 but I do not expect that to happen until next earnings; however, anything can and will happen so having some skin in the game is the way to play. The stock is finding resistance at the last SGB and the past two days produced large wicks indicating sellers were present—a move higher beyond those wicks is very bullish to me.

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11/30/14 - Some big moves last week indicating something is up with FB. Friday resulted in a DOJI and that means a move is close. I am still confident this stock can hit $100 but will that be by the end of this year? Very unlikely without some solid unexpected positive news. The stock is currently testing a retracement back to  my T1 target and for me, if FB can move over that I am getting more bullish once it takes out the SGB zone. Otherwise, a failure and I look for the 89MA as my entry points.

Shorting this stock is risky business so if you do, take profits often and always have some DOTM calls in play just in case we get that diamond in the rough vs. a lump of coal in our December stalking. Ho-Hum-Ho.

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11/22/14 - Friday produced a SGB but that is in conjunction with the rest of the market so it does not necessarily have as much weight to the short signal; however, we know form confirmed experience, a SGB is a SGB so be prepared. I am still long term bullish on FB but not married to my opinion; therefore, if the stock moves below the SGB's from October, then I will look for a bounce at T2.

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11/20/14 - Got my dip and filled on the Nov 75 calls but no rebound and instead, FB is now testing the SGB zone. Looking like it will just slide lower and test the 200MA if this SGB zone holds a lid over today's attempt to climb back up. A move back under $73 and I get short some stock with a target just above the 200MA.

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11/16/14 - FB is still hugging the 89MA which is a good sign sellers are not present. The technical buyers will come out to play once the stock breaks out above the 89MA which is at the base of a SGB zone from way back in  July 2014 so above $76.21 and the stock can start the ascent to $100. A failure and it's over for a $100 trade target in 2014.

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11/2/14 - I am keeping my fingers crossed FB can hold price and start to move back up, but a move under the 89MA and I start to shift to some shorts. I still plan to keep fishing on the Nov 75 calls.

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10/30/14 - No surprise and guided light so the stock was knocked down a bit, but found support at the last SGB zone. If this holds, then investors will be looking for a rebound play off this 89MA. A continued slide into the SGB and we should see FB test T2 for sure. Since we did not get that explosive move to $100 I was hoping for, it's most likely not going to happen by years end but you just never know what the final outcome will be. 

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10/27/14 - FB has been on a very strong pre-earnings run so if they do not surprise, it's looking like the move is already priced in. I still believe this stock can see $100+ by years end provided the quarter is a blow out, guides higher, and makes big gains in mobile ad revenue—a tall order to serve up indeed.

TWTR was in line with earnings and the stock traded down over 10%. FB dropped slightly in sympathy but that was quickly snapped up by buyers indicating there is definite interest there. If TWTR is doing good, then FB should be doing better is the line of reasoning.

BIG bet placed today on the Dec 100 Calls (yeah, that was me...not...lol...but it will be in the future!$!)

Expected MMM

Short interest VERY low at 38M which only take 1 day to cover so the bulls are in control which usually dampens the bigger moves; however, FB is a major growth stock candidate, and investors need something to put money into next year and FB, BABA, LOCO, TWTR are good candidates.

Current weekly IV is only 57% indicating MM do not believe the stock will move higher. This can be a very GOOD thing for us because the calls are a lot cheaper.

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10/21/14 - Power moves in the last three trading sessions, but it has been on LOW volume so CAUTION on getting aggressively bullish at this time if you have not already been in the stock from the bounce off T2. With the stock moving over T1, we have the potential for a break above $80 and that would put it in striking distance of $100 on a very positive earnings report. A miss, and they will CRUSH this stock so I am anticipating another NFLX Lotto trade next week! News is circulating the FB may get access to China in the future and if that happens, this stock will be well on it's way to GOOGL heights.

There was a large contract order on the Nov 82.5 calls at the BID so it could be a sell to close or sell to open don't know for sure, but if the open interest is any indication, it was a BUY LONG.

Current IV on the Oct5 calls is at 58% so we will see how much that increased by weeks end. Last earnings report, the stock jumped less than 6%

Last year the stock traded flat over earnings that were explosive so this year we may see something new.

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10/19/14 - FB has been getting beat down hard since my last post with a double SGB and now that has been taken out on Friday with a strong gap up and nice 4.5% move higher. This is VERY bullish and we now have a clear pivot point to base our bias on. Looking over the daily chart, FB did fill the last earnings gap and buyers believed that was a strong buy point. With AAPL on the skids and GOOGL missing, investors are hungry for growth stocks; and it appears that FB is coming into its potential growth stride in 2015. This is the final quarterly report for 2014 so it will be a very important one; especially with regards to mobile ad revenue growth. One of the benefits is that phones are getting bigger, so that gives more room to push ads at users; and that translates into revenue if FB keeps grabbing market share. Now that the stock if fully entrenched in everyone's lives and linked all over the net, we can expect continued growth. All they need to do now is keep the lid on scandal, and hopefully the CEO does not do anything to damage the FB reputation—it's a $100 price magnet by years end in my estimation provided they beat earnings again by a wide margin.

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10/12/14 - Everything was looking good for a run into a new all time high, but market wide volatility and potential panic selling are setting in and all high multiple stocks will go down. What we need to do is view this as a nice buying opportunity; and if FB can take a little bit more of a dip, I would love to see it get down to the 200MA on the daily chart so I plan to start nibbling at some calls when I see how it trades at the 89MA this week. Earnings are scheduled for 10/28/14 so we will need to watch for a potential earnings run to start soon.

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9/28/14 - Strong moves in FB in the face of big swings in the markets is showing this stock is a probably flight to quality play on any more market weakness. That is not to say it's vulnerable to selling, but if the markets rally, this one is going higher faster—another blowout earnings quarter and I say $100 is in the bag.

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9/21/14 - Time for FB to make a move over $80, but if it falls back into the SGB zone, I will get aggressively short until earnings. I still believe this stock will take out $100 this year so I am planning for that accordingly.

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9/7/14 - Yup, that downgrade was a BS attempt to get some shares cheaper and investors stepped on the gas driving FB to new all time highs. A strong quarterly report and this stock is easily taking out $100! I am going to speculate on some Jan 2015 $100 calls.

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8/30/14 - Just as thing started to get interesting some freaking analyst comes out and DOWNGRADES FB! Well, I think that was a ploy, plot, sucker punch to get investors to dump and that analyst to BUY BUY BUY at a discount!! It sure looks like that was the case because FB drove higher Friday ahead of a 3-day weekend and if big money was on the fence, that stock would have been dumped.

Ok, so the real test of course is taking out the SGB zone, so we still have to wait for that to happen; however, a news event can easily gap the stock over it and you have to think the execs at FB are pissed off some analyst took some wind out of their sails. The bottom line, the company is firing on all cylinders and if they beat earnings estimates again $100 is a sure bet!

Now if you believe the analyst that this company is over valued and a "hold" then you can take on some puts but you better buy a lot more time and go DOTM.

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8/26/14 - The gap was tested and it held, now FB is testing the top of the SGB and if it fails, look out below; however, I have been trading around in the stock and it feels like it wants to explode higher, so I am optimistic that will happen. If that does, then we will be on track for $100 by years end, so I am going to start speculating on the DOTM calls and  to finance this, I will sell some OTM Bull Put Spreads

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8/17/14 - Testing the GAP and the SGB zone the past couple of weeks; and with bullish markets, I think FB is on its way to $100.

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8/10/14 - FB attempted to fins some buyers but I am suspect now until this stock moves back OVER the SGB short signal. I am looking for a full closing test of the gap so if we do get a pull back to the 21MA I will get into more long positions. I am still fishing on the Sep 70 calls.

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8/7/14 - There was a big seller in FB today. I was day trading the stock all day and kept getting stopped out of my long positions. I began to notice a BIG seller around $73.00 and then the stock trailed off all day until a final relief rally. It appears that FB is going to make solid test of the gap before investors hit the the buy button, so if the stock fails to move higher after the first 15min of trading tomorrow, then I will get some shares short and look for a bounce at the 21MA around $70.50.

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7/30/14 - Holding the gap and as long as FB does trade above the 8MA it will find buyers, but below the weight of the SGB it will take another news event to get it going on the journey to $100. I do not think my Bear Call Spread will make a profit so I will be on the hunt for more trades. I am going to sell a longer term Bull Put Spread tomorrow.

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7/27/14 - SGB decision time. Above long below cautiously short.

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7/24/14 - Nice gains on the Lotto and Rent trades today, but you had to take them at the open. The stock moved up to a new all time high of $78.44 in pre-market but sold of prior to the open and failed to retake that high in session trading. If it can hold the $75 price, we may start to get some momentum going and work our way to $100 by the end of the year. The company is running on all cylinders now and revenue is rapidly building which will adjust all analyst multiple models going forward. I am sure we will get some upgrade info into next week and if it's not too optimistic, then FB should find a base around the current close and start the climb to the top of the multiple mountain. One day, this stock could very well topple GOOGLE and trade at even a higher price.

Since today is a gap up SGB, my plan is to continue to sell Bull Put Spreads as long as FB holds over $75.60.

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7/23/14 - Strong earnings, positive conference call and FB takes of to new all time highs!! If this momentum keeps up, we could see FB hit $100 a share a lot sooner than you may expect. They boosted revenue by 61% as they continue to monetize mobile ad revenues. The company handily beat analysts expectations and investors showed their confidence by bidding up the stock over 5% in after hours trading! Let's hope this keeps right on going tomorrow, but I am a little concerned because the stock did not move higher than the MMM of +/- 4.40 at $75.69. I would have preferred the stock exceed that price; and it most likely will in pre-market tomorrow if the party continues.

I was looking over option volume this afternoon and someone bought 16,000 Sep 80 calls at $1.20, that's a $1.9 Million dollar bet this stock will be trading over $80 by Sep expiration!

Depending on how the stock opens up tomorrow, we will have profits on the spreads and 70 calls, but we need the stock to really rocket higher to get the 78's to big profits because the IV is an unbelievable 100%!! Anything not ITM will be immediately crushed at the open so we want to fish for a White Whale in the hopes FB catches a huge rally and runs over $80 tomorrow or by Friday.

White whale fishing anyone? This will be a tough one to figure but I am going for the bullish bet with the hope that FB will initially gap down around $70 - 72 then catch a bid and rally into tomorrow. I plan on fishing in four strikes tomorrow at a 90% discount to the closing price since the IV is 100% I am pretty sure these options will open higher right at the open and then get crushed if FB does not get moving in the first couple of minutes. I do not want to fish any further OTM than the 78 strike, that way, if FB makes it to $80 by Friday, I will be ITM.

Remember, White Whale trades are all or nothing trades. If you you get filled, it's a high probability you will NOT make profits, but when a stock takes off in our direction, the profits can be massive!

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7/22/14 - Tomorrow is FaceBook's (FB) turn at the earnings plate. Since AAPL was a dud, let's hope FB is the shining star with a surprise beat and massive rally...fingers crossed ;-)

I am ready to rumble on this stock, but there is a massive amount of overhead resistance with option open interest all the way up to $75, so it will take a a huge surprise announcement to get this stock moving. It's more likely the stock will move up to twice the MMM move of +/- $4.31 so we have to pick our options accordingly. So if we get a move like we did on CMG as a percentage match, that could put FB around $76.00. If you want to shoot for the Lotto Trade then go with the 78 strike on the calls and $63 on the puts.

Here was the big contract trades on TOS today:

IV% on the weekly options is ridiculous at:

But that is music to your ears if the stock stays within the MMM:

Short interest is low so that will not help catpult the stock higher on a great quarter 

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7/21/14 - A little more umph as earnings approach.

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7/20/14 - A big week of earnings is about to start and FB is on the front lines as investors decide if this is the turn or the burn card for FB. Friday the stock rallied strongly closing at the high of its day which indicates very bullish sentiment. High level open interest is at the 75 strike and then again at the 80 so if we get a strong earnings outcome, we have a good chance FB will be well on its way to $100 a share. Since this stock moves around $3 - $5 I want to gamble a little more with OTM calls and buy more contracts with the goal is to sell half and let the rest ride.

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7/14/14 - Nice moves in FB today and I closed out my July 14 trades. I was not filled on my 68 calls and I did not want to chase it so I cancelled that order. I was filled on the ITM Bull Put Spread in anticipation FB will rise over $72 after earnings next week.

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7/13/14 - Another big move Friday showing investors are very bullish about the stocks short and or long term prospects. The Bull 180 is firmly in place surpassing T3 which must hold this week to keep the Bulls happy. We have to be a little cautious as we approaches earnings unless you are in for the long haul, then buy some stock and forget about it for the next decade. It may very well be the BIGGEST stock ever some day or trade to ZERO so hang on to longs above the IPO price!

The chart has FB in a strong Bull 180 reversal that has played out surpassing T3. It can certainly continue to T4 but it needs to hold onto T3 Monday and then I am definitely going to sell some Bull Put Spreads or Naked Puts on Monday. We have earnings coming out next Wednesday so I am expecting some volatility this report. If they knock it out of the park again, I fully believe the stock is well on its way to hitting $100 by the end of this year; however, a miss, and we should see the IPO price tested so I will have both sides covered.

Looking over the options there is a tremendous amount of open interest on the calls; and one HUGE spread trade on the Sep 14 70 calls indicating a big bet FB will be trading over $70 by September expiration.

There is a lot of open interest at the $70 strike for this week with 128,000 contracts, so that will keep a lot of pressure on the stock should it continue to rise higher this week.

I plan on speculating on the $68 calls if we get an initial pull back Monday; and I want to sell a couple DITM Bull Put Spreads too for next week.

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7/9/14 - Investors shrugged off the negative news and stepped on the gas. We have a strong Level 2 Bull 180 that started today, so if you are in, good, if you are not, FISH for lower entry points and buy MORE time.

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7/7/14 - Falling under the pressure of Ex-Facebook Data Scientist revealing that FB is manipulating its users. This has the stock under pressure which should last about 2-3 days; however, investors have short term memories and long term GREED, so we stay bullish on this stock as long as it trades above the  89MA. I was profit stopped out of my shares and now my other positions are under pressure, but as the stock pulls back, I will be looking to sell some Bull Put Spreads as they IV gets pumped up and we can collect some premium!

I was filled on the JulWk2 65 calls today.

Big spread trade placed today

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6/30/14 - FB had some negative news today that, you would think, should have had investors dumping shares, but that did not happen and the stock barely sold off. This could be the quiet before the storm since we are still inside the SGB zone, so long plays are risky, but if the markets rise in July, FB is a sure bet to go higher; and if they blow out earnings again, we should see this stock on it's way to $100. What does concern me is the 89MA on the daily chart is trending sideways to slightly down but the 21MA on the weekly chart is crossing under the 8MA and that can become support, thus, much higher prices. I have always said, this stock is a buy and HOLD for a 5 yr stretch or longer, but I sure like to speculate week to week.

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6/29/14 - Testing the limits of the SGB zone is always exciting and/or frustrating depending on what side of the action you are on. This stock wants to go UP in the minds of investors, but may not be so interesting in the minds of institutional investors; you know, the ones that have the big bucks to actually move a stock. Until we get the next earnings report, FB is most likely going to linger around $70 so long as there is no negative news released.

Looking over the weekly chart, I can see that FB has almost wiped out the Bear Elephant bar selling from March and is now in the final stages of setting up a nice cup-n-handle pattern which is very bullish. All we need now is the handle to form (sideways trading for a few weeks) and we are off to the races. If you are looking at the daily chart, then FB has put in the handle while holding the 89MA so I am still bullish above that 89MA on the daily chart.

We have a short week of trading due to the upcoming 4th of July holiday, so investors are usually optimistic this week and if FB opens over Thursdays high, I will continue to trade bullish strategies.

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6/21/14 - Ok, so why is it seem every time I get over confident on a direction the freaking stock gods step on me?...lol

FB has been in a tight sideways range now for 8 days and that means it's about to make a move again...or so I would like to think.

I day traded some of my long shares today and made a few bucks, so I decided to hold onto the rest of them and wouldn't you know it, the dang stock starts to fall off all afternoon. Of course, the stock did rise into my SGB zone and so far that is proving to be the TOP; however, news and market bullish sentiment will continue to give FB upside potential, so I am sticking with my bullish play until the SGB at $64 is taken out. As I have said below, there is always an element of surprise with this stock so you will just have to grin and bare it if you want stay in the FB game. In my experience, when a stock climbs to resistance, there will be a news event in a couple of days. The hard part is to figure out if the big money wants it to be good news or bad news (upgrade/downgrade hype). The only way I try to figure that out is with option volume and open interest.

Today, there were 6,100 contracts of the Sep 14 77.5 calls trades as a spread and 1,367 Jan 15 50 Puts.

There was also 24k contracts traded at the 67 strike which is where FB topped out today. Also there were 20k Jul 65 and 18.9k 70's so there is some BIG money laying bets FB is headed higher.

The charts have shown that candles like today result in lower prices so there will have to be a positive news event to change that going forward. FB is well withing striking distance of making new all time highs, and if we get some momentum going, we will see it happen.

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6/19/14 - So many SGB's make it hard to get aggressive on either side. Every little blip of news and shorts immediately cover, so if you do short then you have to just bare knuckle it and hold the play for all or nothing. Once a move happens, it's too late to get in on the juicy ROI so you have to be willing to just take the bullets to get in front of the potential train! The best way to do this is sell credit spreads to finance the speculation.

Today showed there was NO conviction in buyers and FB closed back under the current SGB; however, we have converging moving averages and technical buyers will be watching close as FB tests the 89/21 MA most likely tomorrow.

My Jul 14 65 Calls are already cut in half, so I learned that I need to fish for a much better price on this stock. I want to add a lower strike so I will go with some JunWk4 $63 calls. They are currently asking $1.97 so I am fishing for at fill at $0.50 cents

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6/16/14 - Started some shorts on FB today picking up a couple hundred in profits. Bought a straddle OTM calls and puts for a Lotto trade this week.

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6/15/14 - Still testing the upper side of the SGB zone and FB finished Friday trading with yet another SGB. I am looking for the stock to test my T1 line but always expecting a sudden short covering rally on any positive news. The best way to play this is to fish for lower entry points on options no further OTM than 3% of the days current price.

So if you are following the SGB's then you should place orders for Puts at the $62.00 price point. They are currently trading at $0.31 cents so you want to put in a fishing order at $0.10 cents.

I am keeping my Naked puts in play as I am fully willing to take ownership of FB shares at $60.

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6/12/14 - SGB zone getting tested. We had a sell off today in the markets due to insurgence activity in IRAQ and other political stuff...anything to sell off I guess. Well, if things do heat up over there, you know investors will definitely be looking for safety trades and FB is NOT a safety trade right now. However, if we have the usual scare snare bear trap, then get ready for some strong moves higher next week...maybe even start tomorrow. Ok, so I plan to stick with my bullish bias for now and day trade in the stock tomorrow. We could easily see a full SGB zone test down to $62.40 or my T1 line so you can stick with the plan, or wait for the move lower and buy in again.

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6/10/14 - SGB cancelled! BIG moves today in FB and now it's has some momentum with this solid Bull Elephant bar. As long as FB holds above my SGB zone, we stay LONG.

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6/4/14 - There was some very strong option volume today on FB. Somebody did a huge Spread trade on the Jul 62.50 calls:

I did some day trades in FB today shorting to test the SGB zone, and I had a very difficult time making profits as I was squeezed out a couple of times. I am sure it was due to the huge contract buy which is only a spread, so it could easily be protection or a very large Bear Call Spread bet FB is going down. We know the SGB's are excellent short signals, but this stock has a lot of future compelling news, so any shorts will be squeezed hard on positive news so shorting is always difficult. The current short interest is 46 million shares and only 0.8 days to cover, so not much to squeeze it higher. Calls are 139k to 44k puts so interest to the upside is strong; however, we prefer to see the opposite when we want to get long.

Since I had a very difficult time shorting today, I plan on testing the long side if FB does head higher tomorrow,

I am going to fish for a lower price on some long 65 calls over the SGB zone and sell some Naked Puts for July.

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5/17/14 - I was stopped out of my Naked Puts and it's looking like that may be a good thing as FB failed to close over the SGB and has now put in a very bearish doji. The daily chart also closed as an SGB short signal and until FB can get back over $60.50, it's a cautious short. I am looking for dip buying opportunities going forward until it fails to hold $55 or the 200MA then I will consider aggressive short strategies. Remember, this stock has massive interest, and itchy short covering triggers so that means you need to have a lot of tolerance to the swings. It would be best to just sell premium and collect rent until we get a clear trade signal.

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5/10/14 - The post earnings week could not find big buyers yet, so I am anticipating a bounce at the 200MA if selling continues. The weekly SGB was a good short signal, but if you get short this stock, you better be willing to stomach the swings because there will always be news released to keep volatility going. I know I said I would short under the SGB but I am still bullish overall, so I am looking for opportunities to sell more naked puts or spreads for now.

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5/4/14 - Not a good week for me, a whole batch of Lotto trades expired worthless except one. Time to go to work selling some spreads and collection some premium to get the money back. With FB failing the current SGB zone and the 89MA we may be in for some selling pressure and with downside momentum picking up we can anticipate the first major support at the 200MA.

I did sells a lot of Jun 60 Naked puts on Thursday and if the stock does not get back over the 89MA then I will be in for the ride. If you did not follow this trade, then I suggest you wait until FB is back over the 89MA. I personally do not mind owning this stock at $60 and if I get it put to me then I will manage the shares. I still have some OTM puts in place just in case things get really bad. n any long plays.

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4/27/14 - MUD on my Face is what I have right now and I am bummed out this one did not explode higher like AAPL. Well, we win some and we lose some, it's how we manage our tarding capital that determines our future...NOT a specific trade! I still think this stock will make it to $100 a share in the future, it's just not going to be in 2014 most likely. All the SGB's have proven again and again that we need to SHORT them and until FB can get back over $63.70, this stock will be range bound. That can be a good thing because we can sell Iron Condor spreads and COLLECT RENT!$!

This stock is gong to continue to be a trading stock and that is what we like as options traders so now we pick our spots and continue to make gains. My plan going forward is to start accumulating shares as I make profits because I have no doubt this stock will be splitting several times in the future and I want to have a fat portfolio over the next decade or so.

My first trade will be to sell some LEAP Naked puts to kick things off for next week and then I will fish for call options at my key T2 targets.

The monthly chart has FB in a Level 2 Bear 180 play and a perfect bounce at my T2 target. IF the selling continues, then we will see FB ultimately test the IPO high which happens to be my T3 target!

As you can see, the daily chart has us in a very bearish setup and investors (more like hedge funds) DUMPED this stock and moved money to AAPL which has a lot more potential in the short term.

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4/23/14 - FB beats but stock is practically stonewalled in after hours trading. We may see the big move tomorrow, but dang, I was hoping for a heck of a lot more than $2.19. I bet all the pumped up premium  in the calls has to be stolen tomorrow before FB can actually make the move higher. The news that probably killed the enthusiasm was the CFO is stepping down along with David Einhorn saying there is a Tech Bubble. Usually when I hear news like that, I view it as propaganda, and I am looking for reasons to BUY BUY BUY. I am sure we are in this bubble and that bubble, but until one pops, I would just keep looking for more trade opportunities and carry some puts along the way. FB is firing on ALL cylinders now and that means profits which equals HIGHER stock prices. Compared to others in the space, they are a freaking STEAL. If the stock can hold the 89MA on the daily, I am a full on BULL.

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4/23/14 - A very big day for FB determined to set the direction on this stock for the rest of the year. If they beat and surprise, this stock is on for darling status and $100 price levels this year. If they miss, well, we know that 200MA is an easy downside target. MMM pricing in a 5.56 move and implied volatility on calls is massively inflated over 120% making it very difficult to put on large capital on OTM calls. I would say if you want to speculate on the long side, buy May expiration because any weekly calls will be crushed even if the stock rises higher unless it really blows by your strike price.

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4/10/14 - What a ride this stock has been since my last post. How time fly's by when I am not paying attention. FB broke down from T1 and has now completely tested the last earnings gap. If they do not beat again by a BIG margin, this stock is going to bet crushed and the daily chart is looking ready for this stock to make a very large move. You can straddle this one  the day before earnings with May options and hold for the ride to the land of profits and money!

I sold some naked puts and have a Bull Put Spread. I am fully prepared to become an owner of FB shares so I am not going to worry about this trade. If I do get filled, then I will manage the shares with covered calls and more naked put selling. I do plan to have some puts in place the day before earnings just in case we get a devastating blow, but if/when this maket finds a footing again and FB comes out a winner, this stock will be the one that gets taken to $100 and higher this year.

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3/20/14 - Getting the test of my T1 and it has been a DIRECT HIT...dang, I'm good at picking price targets! Ok, so if FB fails T1 I am looking for my previous T1 to kick in at $64.00 ish. If FB holds ground around here and has another blow out quarter, this stock will make it's way to the century mark $100! If not, the weekly chart is suggesting big money has exited for now. Remember, if you invest in this stock, you have to hold on for a LONG TIME. If you trade this stock, you have to pick your spots and work your trades.

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3/16/14 - With the little upshot FB had after my last commentary, I adjusted my T-Levels and will be looking for T1 to hold ground before I start some more bullish positions. .

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3/3/14 - Will this be all the pull back FB gives on the Zuckopoly spending spree? This week should be the one to set the range for the future of FB over the next couple of months until we get into the next earning release. How you decide to play FB is always up to speculation and massive investor angst as they place bets on what direction they believe it will go; and for now, the bulk of the money is looking long. Now if the markets take off on Monday and FB holds Friday's bottoming tail, I am going to go on the long side with a strict stop at $67.00 and then I will look to buy long again at my T1 level.

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2/27/14 - No big pull back indicating the institutional money may have figured the Zuck is actually rounding the corner and heading for Boardwalk. The last three days on the daily chart have been easing into the 8MA and so long as it holds, we have the train on the track and higher prices are on the way. If we do get a breach starting tomorrow, I expect bargain buyers to be wafting around $66.00 or T1. So far, my puts are not working out for this week unless we get the big upset tomorrow, but I am thinking any move back over $70 and it's on for the longs so I plan on selling Bull Put Spreads next week.

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2/23/14 - The explosion in higher prices for FB has happened, but now that the CEO is on the spending spree again with a whopping $19 BILLION purchase of an obscure app developer with a bazillion users (WhatsAp), I am sure the old school value investors, money managers, bean counter accountants must be saying he bought WTF? and are surely thinking this "kid" is burning money up like it's made out of monopoly paper! Well, that is what money is to the "new" generation of CEO's. If you take the actual value of the fiat currency we call U.S. Dollars, he is only paying for the company with inflated dollars.

According to this website: http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ the us dollar back in 1913 (the year the real PONZI SCHEME/SCAM started when we gave a private banking system, The Federal Reserve, the power to print money) it now takes $23.62 to buy what $1.00 did, so if you look at his purchase in true dollars, then he paid a bargain for WhatsAp...$804 Million!—would they be bitching about that amount of money? The pundits are CLUELESS and Zuckerberg is a 21st century genius playing the Monopoly game of his life...go figure eh? And in fact, he is only paying $4 billion in cash or $169,276,343.00 in inflated dollars. As for the other $15 Billion, that will come by way of Face Book Stock for $12 billion and another $4 billion vested over 4 years to the 55 employees.

All I know is FB is going to a VERY volatile stock this year and that is EXACTLY what traders like us WANT!!!  I have repeatedly told you this stock is a long haul if you want to own shares, and had you bought way back when I said that, you are very happy with your investment to date. Now if you are trading the moves, then you have had some HUGE winners along the way, so just keep on moving your game token down the board and eventually we will pass GO and collect another $200, $2,000, $20,000 bucks and occasionally I will find us the White Whale trades and we will land on FREE PARKING and CLEAN UP!

For next week, what we have to figure out is will the hedge fund managers punish this stock in the coming weeks, or sucker punch investors with an initial drop so they can squeeze the heck out of them? When it comes to internet/tech companies and stock price, FB is still a flea on the big dog stocks like: GOOG, BIDU, AAPL, NFLX etc., but given enough time, FB will either be scratched off or suck up enough blood to clone themselves into the biggest dog!

The charts tell me FB has completed 8weeks of aggressive growth, and with earnings season coming to an end, There will not be much more news to push markets drastically higher. I expect FB to maybe attempt to get back over $70, but if it does fail, then I will aggressively short down to T2.

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2/9/14 - The race is one as long as FB holds above the SGB and I am staying long until that happens.

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2/5/14 - Took profits on the Naked Puts and if FB falls under the SGB, I am looking to sell some weekly Bear Call Spreads. But I am definitely going to be looking for long opportunities if FB does take a tumble lower.

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2/2/14 - We get that big move but not the spectacular one I was shooting for so I was disappointed yet again on my big Lotto trade with FB. I am not concerned as my other trades are making up the losses on the Lotto trade and I know I will be catching a HUGE one in the future so I will just keep on keeping on. Now that FB has appeared to eclipse that SGB, it must still hold ground this week. The company is running strong and revenue is growing as expected so FB is looking good as a long term investment if you are so inclined. I am a trader, so I look for opportunities to make HUGE gains; therefore, I plan on trading what comes and taking profits often.

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1/30/14 -  Nice day to be LONG FB! But I made a really STUPID posting error on my strike prices. It was 2 am and I must have been zombie tired. I was supposed to put the strike at $65.00 not $75.00. If you were checking your entry price points, then you can see that was the case and I hope you figured that out. What I figured out is I am trading in way too many symbols and Just cannot keep up with the research etc. That said, I am backing way down going forward so this faux pa does not happen again.

Ok, so what can we expect for the last trading day of Jan 2014? If the moves in GOOG, CMG, FB, AAPL, PCLN etc. are the indication, we may just get a huge rally across the board tomorrow. I think FB is now running on all cylinders with back to back winning quarters so investors are betting on the future and FB will definitely see $100 a share in the future—especially if the markets do not melt down tomorrow and into February.

I will be focusing on FB to find a really juicy trade opportunity to make up for the mishap I posted.

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1/29/14 -  FB Beats and revenue is up. Stock moves over $60 in after hours and we are looking really good for a HUGE LOTTO TRADE PROFIT!

If FB is up in pre market, I am selling half of my JanWk5 calls and the open and holding the rest into Friday. I will keep all of my Feb14 calls looking for a continuation rally into next week.

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1/26/14 -  No move over $59 so we need FB to sandbag earnings and that will kill the shorts forcing a massive rally. Since that SGB failed this week and with Friday's market melt down happening, FB was summarily dumped closing under $55, so if it cannot get back over $55, I am thinking big money knows something we don't and they are heading for the exits. Now if they do beat again; and this market sell off is business as usual; then we have huge potential for FB to explode higher. Either way, I will have calls and puts in place.

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1/22/14 -  Getting ready for earnings next week and with the excitement in NFLX one can hope FB will have it's day like that too! This stock is testing the current SGB that caused a sell off but remember, we are in a textbook cup-n-handle and now FB has built a very good handle so if they do beat again, we are off to the races and $100 a share this ear. Heck maybe even get there this earnings release. Typically stocks peg 10% moves but if NFLX is any indication, FB my just double again! I know I was betting heavy last quarter it would of done that and I plan on betting for it gain this quarter. With all these stocks going to the moon, FB is an absolute BARGAIN when it comes to trading price. Valuation, well, that is a different animal but I do NOT care about that, I am a trader! If FB moves back over $59 I will be getting long JanWk 5 and Feb14 Calls and selling Feb 14 56/55 Bull Put Spreads.

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1/18/14 -  Getting ready for the next moves and if FB can hold the 21MA then the Bull speculators will start building long positions but we need institutional money to hit the bid...then the FB will put a game face on and we are on our way. We still have a lot of time before earnings so patience is the caution play and taking positions now is too expensive. I am waiting until we get closer to the big day before I take on some more directional positions. I will sell a couple of Bull Put Spreads on Tuesday if FB holds Friday's lows.

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1/14/14 -  A little pullback to test the bulls and a nice move today off the 21MA! If you were shopping for cheaper entry prices, then you definitely got them yesterday and are well on your way. We still have a little bit of time before earnings. so FB will definitely be doing some jitterbug moves over the next couple of weeks. Just keep fishing for better entry points if you are starting to get some call plays one.

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1/12/14 -  FB has established a handle on the big cup and it's a big sign to millions of investors. Get ready for a big move soon as we get closer to earnings and if they beat again, $100+ here we come! If they miss then I am looking for a failure of the IPO high. This stock has the potential to make us millionaires if we work the bigger moves correctly. Get ready for some massive White Whale and Lotto trades this year! I missed out last earnings on what I expected to be a move to $100 but big money was just not ready and instead took PCLN, GOOG, NFLX and CMG to new heights in 2013. Now it's time to move money to the "next best thing" and FB is the one I am betting big money will be taking for the ride in 2014.

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1/6/14 -  Big day for the FB today and I fully expect this to hold and move higher if the stock holds above $55.00. I am looking for this stock to make it's way to $100+ this year so long as they keep on beating estimates this quarter and next. There is a battle on for top dog between FB and TWTR fans so get ready for some tug-o-war between these two stocks all year. FB is currently in a very obvious cup-and-handle pattern I pointed out below, so we need to see if today's short covering has real bear teeth or will the bulls kick in those teeth and take this stock to the moon! I closed out my Naked Puts from September  and August.

I will be looking for some entry points on a couple of Feb 14 Calls and sell some Feb 14 $60 Naked puts if FB holds ground at or above the $56 price point tomorrow.

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1/1/14 -  Now that FB has closed out for 2013 firmly above the IPO high, investors should be optimistic it will make a move to $100 this year; that is if they can post another record quarter coming up. The weekly chart is looking very bearish so until FB can take out $60 it will be vulnerable to selling pressure. Any open tomorrow over $55 should spark a rally but any close under $55 and the bears will definitely be stepping on the gas. I am confident any selling down to the 8ma or the 21ma will produce a bounce so I will look to have some order in play if and when FB pulls back down there. Any move/close over $55 and I will start looking at some naked put selling.

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12/25/13 -  Nice moves on FB the day after being added to the S&P 500. Yesterday's action produced a known SGB short signal, but in light of the news and induction, I a not a 100% bear buyer so long as FB remains above $55.00. I am looking for a post Christmas rally in the markets this week and FB (barring any more negative news) should be making a move higher twoards that $60 price target.

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12/22/13 -  The devil is always in the details when  trading FB. We were well on our way to a very nice profit and then there was good ol' ceo Zuck had to sell 40+ million shares by Friday. Well, that basically killed the stocks momentum and the calls made a break even to slight profit. At least the rent plays all cashed in at 100% profits! Those shares are now off the table and the stock is now in the index so we should start to see some moves gong forward. Any pull back is a buy as the anticipation of a bright future is on the minds of investors. With a close over $55 on Friday, I am looking for FB to definitely make some moves this last week of trading in 2013. If it can open and hold over $55.50 then I am looking for a potential run at $60 by Friday. I plan on buying some Dec Wk 5 58 - 60 calls in the morning depending on how the stock and markets open on Monday.

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12/18/13 -  Two more days to the induction of FB into the S&P 500 and that means a lot of shares MUST be bought. With the Fed announcing they are tapering, FB found buyers (along with the market) and powered higher off the announcement giving a nice boost to my call plays. With a close at new all time highs along with upgrades this week and market support I am anticipating a continuation tomorrow and into Friday. Of course it's a tough call to be sure, but if FB can get over $56.50 in early trading tomorrow, then I am looking to hold 80% of my position into Friday.

Now if today's market wide rally off the Fed news finds legs tomorrow, then I am going to sell some more credit spreads and buy some more calls on FB for next week. Many times though, once a stock has been booked into the S&P there tends to be a drop but with this much momentum under this stock, I am confident it will attempt a run at $60. FB did announce they will start playing auto ads on the news feed and that can have an initial negative affect but in the long run, FB subscribers will just accept it as a nuisance of being on the site and keep on coming back. We know that exposure to ads eventually gets the attention to everyone and there is no doubt that will result in clicks and growth for FB revenues which means much higher stock prices into 2014 if that plays out. I know one thing for sure is that FB will see at least $100 a share in the next three months if the earnings are a blowout in Jan

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12/14/13 -  The momentum has begun and FB is on its way to all time highs again so long as there is no mishaps by management etc. If they blow out earnings next quarter, then I expect FB to be trading at $100 or higher. I know we did not get our way last earnings, but I am fully expecting the opportunity to get there in 2014. I am not 100% confident, but I am willing to keep speculating it will happen; however, I plan on keeping some puts on when we get close to the next earnings release. The 55 Dec Wk2 calls made a nice profit if you took it. Remember, we always take profits when we trade news events especially if we are DOTM. I still have the Dec 13 55's with nice gains building. With the induction into the S&P 500 on 12/20 I am expecting FB to continue to move higher all week as investors buy into the momentum. There will no doubt be more upgrades and accolades going forward as well as the usual detractors. This stock is fickle with investors but primarily it's a gamble with big fund managers until the company shows solid profits in many areas of it's advertising revenue streams. By comparison, there has been more interest and activity in TWTR. I am sure this is pissing off FB management et. al, but that will just create a fire under their hinnies to innovate and desolate competing companies. In the meantime, we will just keep working the movements of FB and make lots of profits as time rolls on!

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12/11/13 -  Surprise surprise! FB is getting added tot he S&P 500 on 12/20/13 lifting the stock more than 4% in after hours trading. There was also an upgrade with a price target at $60 and I expect FB to put on some green the rest of the week so I will be adding some Lotto Calls, Naked Puts and Bull Put Spreads on tomorrow. The expected first price target is $55 but I do not anticipate it getting there this week; however, I will be speculating on some Dec Wk2 call anyway just in case. There is approximately 41,052,400 shares short and this takes less than a day to cover so if fund managers do not jump on immediately tomorrow, then we could see FB make small consistent moves higher into next week.

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12/3/13 -  Still holding ground above the IPO high but getting dead stopped this week at the base of that huge Bear Elephant bar back on 10/8/13. If FB gets over 55% of resistance, then short will cover and the race in on to new heights. I am long term bullish on this stock but it is very subjective to news so movements can be sudden and large. With that said, I am looking for cheap OTM options to speculate with as I want to be there to catch when the news stories hit.

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11/26/13 -  FB broke down under the IPO high and bounced off the 89MA today on strong short covering momentum. It managed to hold ground all afternoon indicating there will be more upside action if it can get back over today's high. There was some news bits on social media stocks that no doubt fueled the shorts fire so we need to see if this can have some legs but I do not see this stock making much more of a recovery before short LOAD up again. Until FB can get back over my T1 line, it will continue to be vulnerable to more downside action. If the 89MA is breached, we may be getting aggressive some puts. There is still a ton of hope out there this stock has found, tested and bounced off the IPO high. Remember, they have had two back to back blowout quarters so three will be the charm and maybe I can get some of that missed opportunity next year as FB could be the darling stock for 2014.

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11/19/13 - Tested T1 and failed . Monday was a total dump truck of crap on several stocks. FB was dropped like the proverbial rock and there was no real bounce today so I am expecting FB to fully test their IPO high this wee at $45.00. Now if that holds up, you have to believe investors will drive this stock back up to T1 again; however all this movement equates to less than $4.00 of range so you cannot expect a big ROI if you are long or short options. The best way to maximize your profits is either sell premium (Iron Condor or Vertical Spreads) and fish for lower entry prices on calls if you want to get long. Of course, if the SPY / DOW does take a dive, I do not think FB will counter trend unless they dip down under $45.00 before the indexes do their thang.

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11/17/13 - It was painful to see my entire lot of calls and puts expire worthless, but I have made a ton of profits on FB so I am still well into a profit overall. This weeks trade activity has put FB back over T1 which will be the test this week.

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11/11/13 - Lost the love and now the sellers are in full control. I am looking for FB to fail today's low and the IPO high on its way to T2 where I expect a bounce.

I am really bummed out that all my calls plays turned into a total bust and now it's looking like my Puts may do so as well.

I am selling some BC Spreads tomorrow.

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11/4/13 - I little bit of selling action today and FB closed under T1 so if it cannot get back over it, then we setting up for a test of the IPO high at $45.00. If that happens, some of my puts will kick in and make some money! Above T1 and I will get some long shares and sell some more Jan 14 naked puts.

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11/3/13 - Well, what can I say, you win some: NFLX, GOOG, AMZN, LNKD, AAPL and you lose some. We still have a couple more shots with TSLA (Nov 5th)  and PCLN (Nov 7th) so all is not a bust for the final earnings season opportunities. Next quarter will definitely be a game changer for FB and if the stock can hold above $50 this week, then I think investors will get on board and start to build this stock up to $100 eventually. If you are bullish, then sell Naked Puts this week for Nov Expiration and see if you get the stock put to you. If you are already in shares of FB then consider selling covered calls if it cannot get back over $50 by Tuesday. I plan on doing some Vertical Spreads, Naked Puts and some day scalping as this stock will still be heavily treaded every day giving lots of opportunities to scalp. I strongly suggest you trade off 15 minute charts because the spreads and volatility is just too much for smaller time frames. I was stopped out mulitple times Thur and Fri and that was a we bit frustrating for me. I did manage a profit by the end of the day but it was a lot of WORK to get it.

I still have a lot of time left on my Nov puts and calls, so I need FB to really get a move on this week to get a chance at redemption!

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10/30/13 -  FB BEATS on both numbers by a HUGE margin and the stock was on it's way to glory, but then they had to say it, they had to let the cat out of the bag; and that cat left a pile of sheeeat that investors STEPPED on when these comments by the (soon to be fired) CFO, David Ebersman said:

"I want to say a few words about user engagement on Facebook. As we have said previously, this is a hard issue for us to measure, because self-reported age data is unreliable for younger users. So we have developed other analytical methods to help us estimate usage by age.

Our best synopsis on youth engagement in the U.S. reveals that usage of Facebook among U.S. teens overall was stable from Q2 to Q3. So we did see a decrease in daily users specifically among younger teens.

We won't typically call out such granular data, especially when it's of questionable statistical significance given the lack of precision of our age estimates for younger users. But we wanted to share this with you now since we get a lot of questions about teens."

It all sounds normal when you read it, but it was how he said it that spooked (BOO - no treats for you!) investors and the selling accelerated driving the stock down BELOW the closing price!!!!  @#$!@$%^%@#

Well, I had a HUGE $8k profit going until that happened and I did what any professional trader would do, I added to my shares on the initial  dip, but that dip turned in to a waterfall and wiped out ALL of my gains for the day. Needless to say, I was very PISSED OFF! —I had to go back to work and just scalp around and I finally got back half of my gains.

Ok, so what does that mean for us tomorrow and beyond? Well that depends on how "we did see a decrease in daily user" is interpreted by investors. The last stock that said similar things like that in their conference call (NFLX) was CRUSHED for years.

As for trading this stock tomorrow, I have to work around what FB give's me as I am now too far OTM on the calls side, but I am close enough on the puts if this stock gets taken down. I plan on watching how it reacts to the closing price and post market lows at $47.27. It's quite comical to see how market makers manipulate price or set closing prices. The final closing price for FB on my platform was $49.03 and the final closing price for the day on my charts was $49.04 as in, you are not getting ONE RED CENT on this one!  lol.

I am expecting some really strong movement tomorrow as investors decide if the comments about losing some silly little kids vs. killing it on revenue were a total overreaction. We still have a very good chance that Halloween can still deliver us the goodies, so get ready to fish for some White Candy Apple Whales tomorrow!!!

Profits Up!

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10/29/13 -  Tomorrow is the BIG day for our beloved FB Lotto Plays. Will we be cashing in a fat paycheck or cutting up missed opportunities? I am a wee bit bummed out FB lost ALL of it's momentum this past week and fully expected the stock to be trading north of $60 by the earnings release. Well, that shooting star doji did exactly what it's famous for. Shooting out the lights of the bulls and waking up the bears. Let's hope the earnings release date move was for a real Halloween Treat vs. getting a very nasty black cat in the bag trick!

The saving grace so far is my T1 target as FB has managed to keep from touching down on it. Now if they blow out earnings again like last time, I fully expect this stock to see north of $60 and who knows, we just might get to $100 over the next couple of weeks. Oh that would be grand, about $500k for my account!!

I am fully loaded with Calls and Puts so let the chips fall where they may. I just hope this stock either blasts off from here or gets crushed back to the 200MA so I can cash in.

Here was the biggest option trade today. This buyer is expecting the stock to move over 165 and hedged with 150 puts just in case.

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10/23/13 - Shooting Start proved to be an accurate reversal signal but is it really a "reversal"? I am not convinced. I bought some more calls today so I am LOADED for a massive rally hoping to get the big move higher. Not so confident it will get to $100 next week, but I have all of November if it needs to. I will definitely have puts in place just in case it's a total disaster. I certainly hope the stock makes at least a $10 move up or down but definitely want a history making move this time around. I am taking some real long shots but they are fully paid for with day trades. If you do not have the capital to throw at these DOTM calls, then stick to the 60's strikes.

The chart is very interesting indeed. We have a double shooting star Doji pattern, so I expect the earnings move to be a massive one, and so does somebody else, look at this massive volume straddle trade on FB today, a whopping 4,392 contracts!

The rest of the week will be critical in my mind. If FB moves lower, then my hopes of $100 are all but wiped out (maybe) but if the stock manages to shake off today's news and invesors get the itch to speculate, then the race is on. I think the more this stock gets beat down this week, the more investors will think it's DOA and load up on puts and shorts. That is EXACTLY what we want, a massive short squeeze. Remember, FB moved their earnings day to Oct 30th so do you really think the company will disappoint? That would be a massive "trick" but I think we are in for a serious bag of "treats" heading into the end of October!

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10/21/13 - Testing the resolve of the bulls today as FB closed down and maintained the entire days trading range inside the wicks of this shooting star doji. Any move over today's high is a long buy for me. I attempted to buy 100 Nov 13 90 calls today for $0.13 and I was only filled on 56 and then the pricing was bumped a whopping $0.05 cents. Hmm, my broker or the market makers just did not want to fill me on the rest of my order. Seem strange, but maybe they expect this stock to go higher than $90. I expected to easily get filled on all those contracts that far out of the money. All I know is I am loaded up for a big move and I need FB to deliver! I will definitely have puts in place too the day of earnings. .

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10/19/13 - $100 per share plus here we come!! If FB kills earnings again you can bet your bottom dollar this stock will hit $100 maybe even $120. Of course, if it misses in a big way, well, time to DUMP this stock for a long long time. I fully expect a BIG move in either direction and my bias is still strong bull. We have a very interesting pattern on my last chart below. If you compare that to Friday's weekly chart on NFLX they are a perfect match. Hmm, that is a little peculiar to me, how about you?

What do have is a textbook Shooting Star Doji. Now this is an overly obvious looking pattern that every novice investor will recognize. Now when things are this easy to see, the stock tends to do the exact opposite and millions of investors get their hinnies paddled. So, that means FB could be in for a HUGE move higher if it beats. I am going to have a straddle on for sure, but I want to gamble on the long side with 65's 75's and 95 calls. I will buy ATM puts for my hedge the day of earnings.

We still have close to two weeks until the 30th so I am not planning on buying any puts this week, but I do want to get in on some OTM calls because if FB does continue to power higher like it did Friday, I do not want to pay for the implied volatility in those DOTM options.

Chart school says; however, technical traders prefer to see the other side of the Doji on a closing basis to confirm the highest probability of the reversal signal. Note, the word "probability" here. That means all this technical mumbo jumbo can be DOA especially with a stock such as this building MASSIVE momentum. Clearly, we need a solid surprise / beat and this is moot so get ready to hit another Mega Lotto Ticket!!!

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10/17/13 - GOOG beats, AAPL rises, FB ready to ROCK as GOOG reports mobile is gaining ground. If FB blows out earnings again, this stock will be at $100 by the end of the year! Today's close was a new ALL TIME HIGH and the chart is VERY bullish right now. We should get some real movement heading into earnings.

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10/16/13 - Ok, government shut down abated, earnings rolling out, sky not falling (yet) and earnings on the horizon indicate FB is a LONG above my T1 target. Come earnings, if they miss, it will get CRUSHED but I do not think that is going to be the case. It takes really BIG money to move this stock and the monthly chart shows plenty of sold gains on strong volume. Anything can happen, and a quick note that we are now in the 5th month of this power move, so if FB does fail, Oct earnings will be the final arbiter for this stock. Will the Bulls get the treat they are bucking for or will they get tricked kicked and BLANKED around. (I think you can figure out the last word ;-).  October 31st is going to be an interesting trading day to say the least. (I think FB is going to kill it again, why else would they move the earnings release up to 10/30/13...just to pull a horrible "trick" on investors?

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10/13/13 - FB took a bit of a dip that investors viewed as a bargain and the stock is now back over T1. It needs to close over 450 on strong volume to prove to big money this stock is here to stay. We need another earnings blowout to give FB the kiss goodbye to its IPO price and move on to new heights. A miss and this stock gets CRUSHED so we will have some puts in place closer to earnings.

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10/8/13 - Oh the dumping of this stock looks to be happening. FB moved the earnings release to 10/30/13 and that killed the action. Usually, when a company moves up their earnings release date, it can have a positive impact but you never really know until the day of announcement so you have to look at price action to get a better idea where the big money is working. Today the big money was definitely DUMPING this stock and if FB does not get back over $49.00 - $50 then there is just NO chance of a move to $100 by the end of the year. Oh I certainly hope that is not the case. I added 50 more Oct Wk 4 60 calls on 10/4 but now those are looking like a total bust. I have some puts in place and will be looking to get more if FB rallies back up this week and fails at my T1 target.

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10/4/13 - The beginning of Oct trading in FB has not been what I had hoped for. Of course the markets have been the biggest drag on this stock so far. The daily chart has signs of topping out, but do not let that necessarily fool you just yet. You want to see topping tail patterns like this happening ABOVE runs not down into them on pull backs. This should be viewed as more of a buy opportunity and that is what I have been doing. Looking for long plays for now. I have some puts in play and will be adding a lot more when we get close to earnings, but for now, I am a buyer of any more pull backs to the gap on the Daily chart and aggressively long if it pulls back to the 8MA on the Weekly chart.

I was profit stopped out of my long shares and I plan to get back in tomorrow if FB drops and pops or gaps and holds the first 15minute bar.

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9/30/13 - The end of September trading and FB closes the month over $50! This is significant in my play book and I am looking for an earnings run to start up soon. Of course we could get an initial profit taking drop this week, but I am confident FB will keep investors interested all the way to earnings so long as there are not kill stories. There was an interesting trade placed today FB. Some investor out there bought 6,000 of the Jan 44 puts traded for $2.32 then there was a block trade of 150k shares at $51.12.

There are far more call contracts being bought today so the crowd psychology is for FB to go go higher

Short interest is low so we need to be looking at this to rise in order to get a massive short squeeze if they have a surprise earnings beat again.

Here is what my candle scanner is currently showing:

I am going to continue to day trade stock on FB and accumulate OTM calls. When earnings day comes, I plan to buy some ATM puts as a hedge in case they disappoint and the stock get crushed.

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9/29/13 - Cha-Ching! Nice profits on those FB Lotto Plays. I am long the Dec 75 Calls looking for that $100 price target before end of year.

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9/26/13 - Finally! FB has broken through to the other side on the road to $100.00. It will be critical this stock closes above $50 tomorrow and once that happens we should get a nice earnings run up to $60. The party starts after earnings next month and we are going to get a BIG move one way or the other so a straddle is a 100% must-be-done-trade. I hope you are in on some or all of my trades above and making some nice profits with me! Once FB has closed for a second day over $50, then I am going to get some DOTM Nov Calls for earnings blowout and I will pick up some Puts the day of earnings.

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9/24/13 - Well, not busting the move over $50 like I was hoping for yesterday and today FB stopped $0.34 cents short (Fib number) and ended up the day as a Tombstone Doji. NOT a good sign. Yesterday was a Dragonfly Doji that resulted in a gap higher today, so we have to figure out if all those block trades were big money buyers or sellers. Both of these have appeared at the top of a multi-day / multi-week run and that make me a wee bit nervous. The saving grace for me is my Nison Candle Scanner software telling me that this pattern is  a Rising window but that is also above a Bear Harami so we are definitely getting a measured move going forward, let's hope that is UP but then again, that is exactly what everyone most likely wants and the masses rarely get what they want.

I would just like to have seen today's close no lower than 55% of the range.

 I am still looking for the move over $50 but we just may get a drop back to T1 first as investors do not want to commit large capital until they see the next earnings report this month. Tough call either way, but I have my positions and will be ready to take profits tomorrow on my OTM calls. I plan to keep OTM calls going until earnings.

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9/21/13 - The road to $100 has begun.

Today was a crazy trading day with FB. The markets were getting crushed and FB was getting upgrades and accolades. The final 15 minutes of trading were making the longs very happy and the shorts like me very sad. I have long positions too, but I expected FB to sell off into the close, so I gambled on 100 $46 put contracts and it was as if FB Market Makers were waiting for me to get my puts on; because the very second I hit the buy button and was filled; FB literally exploded higher and never looked back. I dumped my puts for a hefty $1k loss and then bought some shares and picked up some calls for next week. You have to be ready to make quick decisions when you day trade. Dang! Had I bought those 100 calls instead, I would have been up a fat $15,000 by the close.

I closed out of most my FB plays two days ago, but if you stuck to yours, then you should be very pleased with yesterdays final results.

Next week will be pivotal for FB if we get, what I expect to be, the rise to $50+. The volume was massive into the close. I saw several 100k plus block trades go through. Even in after hours trading I saw one block trade of 750,000 shares. This is usually not selling pressure because the stock kept rising every tick, so that indicates strong buying. It's suspected that big money was dumping AAPL and jumping into FB, and it that is the case, this stock should rise at least 10% more next week.

So how do we play this for maximum potential? There are many ways to do this. For example, you can just buy shares if you have not already done this since I talked about it way back at $18.00 a share. Another way is to just keep selling Naked puts until you get the stock put to you and then manage your shares from there. If you have a smaller account then you can buy call premium week to week, but spread your strikes and buy one ITM, one ATM and several OTM.

I believe FB is more than capable of reaching $100 per share in the next couple of months especially if they report another surprise earnings quarter on 10/21/13. Of course, if they miss, the drop is going to be HUGE, so I plan on keeping a load of OTM puts on tap as I play the long side aggressively.

My plan is to buy 2,000 shares in pre-market on Monday if FB shows any strength. If FB fails to rise next week, then it may just drop like a rock, so I want to insure my shares, but I do not want to spend more money since I am full on bullish so I will finance my insurance puts by selling the Jan 2014 47 Naked puts. This will give me $3.90 in premium and I can use that premium to buy two weeks of insurance. I plan on buying 50 44 and 50 43 Oct Wk1 Puts. That way, I am controlling 10,000 shares and if FB takes a turn for the worse, I will make more than enough money to buy back my naked puts. I will have a stop loss on my long shares at $45.00.

If FB takes off as I expect it to run to at least $55 next week and I will make multi-thousands in profits on my long shares, my long calls, and the naked puts will pay for my insurance policy; and if FB gets dumped then I expect it to give back all of last weeks gains, so here is how my insurance puts can work out:

I fully expect FB to fall back to T1 if FB fails to hold last weeks gains.

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9/18/13 - Fed keeps finger on the money printing machine and markets explode but FB stops dead closing under last weeks all time high. This is signaling big money is NOT interested in taking this stock higher, but that can easily be a head fake or stealth rally about to begin. If we do get a reversal of fortune for the markets the rest of the week, I suspect FB will be one to take a much needed break. The chart shows a very powerful BEARISH Candle pattern called Three Crows; however, when you get these (rare) the predictable effect can be quite the opposite and that is what caused the massive short covering rally yesterday. Since today did not have a follow up, that is fueling the belief the shorts will win this pattern, but do not get married to a particular bias. I was one of those technical traders going short yesterday and it caught me way off guard. I am ready to get aggressively LONG if FB pulls back because this candle patterns are a bluff and I believe FB is ready to start the move to $50 and beyond. My lines in the support sand are the two SGB's below and today FB bounced right off the first one.

I closed out a lot of plays today and took profits.

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9/16/13 - Breaking down or is FB putting on their game face and getting to ready to pounce on the shorts. Of course everyone is expecting this stock to take a massive drop, but I am not so sure that will be the case. Big money is at work in this stock, so the current selling is just them pulling back letting novice investors get fully loaded on the short side and then BAM, they step in and move the stock up forcing shorts to cover. I will be watching to see how this the stock reacts to the second SGB where I think there can be a support bounce. If you shorted today as I suggested below, then you should be very happy with your results.

I am going fishing for some Calls because when everyone wants puts the calls get dirt cheap!

My Puts that I do have are building profits so if FB continues to slide tomorrow I am going to lock in some of those profits!

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9/16/13 - Broke over to new high and now back under old IPO high, If FB fails to get back over, shorts will get aggressive and over shorts will be forced to cover. Straddle play is best bet or speculate with money you are willing to lose.

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9/12/13 - Not getting the continued moment this week I was hoping for and so far, it's testing that IPO high with a close just under $45.00. I think this stock still has legs to run and so I am expecting a move and close over $45.00 and in Pre Market it's already up $0.23.

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9/9/13 - Testing that $45 price level. FB did not make it...yet!

I started to buy some calls and puts today. FB MUST stay above the lower SGB and Friday's low to keep the momentum going. I was able to get a lower price on my calls which is always a good thing. The consensus on the professional side of trading is FB is ready for a correction lower, but that can be shattered in a second if this stock makes a break for higher ground on a news event etc. I am just going to keep adding to my positions because this stock is in play now and the more volatility the BETTER. Short interest is low so it will take institutional money to get FB moving into new territory and not looking back. Most likely that will happen if the next quarter is another winner...we will see.

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9/6/13 - CASHING IN A FAT LOTTO TICKET TRADE!!! FB started to falter in early trading then caught a bid after the president was done speaking and off to the races banking us a HUGE WINNER!  This stock is going to make us MILLIONAIRES!!!!

I am going to start getting extremely aggressive but if your account is small START SMALL and build up to large size. There will be PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY so do not follow my size because I can be 100% wrong you know. I have a ton of profits from this weeks trades so I am using PROFITS to GAMBLE.

You should start building up your size with PROFITS like me and then you can gamble. In the meantime, take some profits to buy DOTM Calls each week because FB will be the new darling stock that BIG ELEPHANT MONEY wants to step into the liquidity pool with and start to play—this will create HUGE volatility spikes giving us massive profits!

Now be sure to ALWAYS have some DOTM Lotto Puts in play because this stock can miss the mark and when it does, it will be severely dumped, but for now, we are aggressively BULLISH on our trade bias. FB was upgraded with a $55 price target and I am fully confident it can get there before the next earnings report comes out if it can hold this weeks gains.

The final test will be $45.00 as this was the intra-day high from it's initial IPO. Once this is cleared, $50 is a 99% lock in before any major profit taking test will kick in. Of course, I could be 100% off in my estimations so I am definitely going to keep a good supply of Lotto Puts in play going forward. The markets and FB are always at risk of panic and with a potential Syrian conflict that could ultimately escalate into a massive problem for the entire world, we have to be diligent in PROTECTING our accounts.

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9/6/13 - SGB ignored! If tomorrow's employment report is strong then my Lotto Calls are going to BANK. If not, I am looking for FB to take a plunge and will aggressively short it under Monday's SGB.

FB is looking very strong right now and has been holding up well intra-day. I know, because I have been attempting to short shares and I keep getting squeezed so I am felling pretty good that $50 is the next major target if tomorrow turns into a rally so I will speculate with some Lotto Calls if we rally.

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9/3/13 - Showing signs it want to move into new territory. I tried to short FB twice today and took some losses . The stock was selling off in the afternoon session but found buyers closing above the 15min SGB. This could prove to be very bullish if it holds ground tomorrow and very bearish if it fails to stay above it. I will attempt another stock play tomorrow  and a couple of weekly Lotto Plays.

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8/31/13 - FB is at the crossroads and Friday's daily chart has put in a nice SGB which has proven to be a very reliable SHORT signal; however, like NFLX and TSLA, that is not 100% guarantee; and since FB has finally reached its pinnacle of success, the IPO price; which has taken the stock a bit of time, I am sure investors are anxious to see it break out in September by taking out the intraday post IPO high.

FB could very well be on it's way as one of the top picks of 2014. Of course, we know that stocks like this one are very vulnerable to news, competition and fickle investors. If FB is going to make the journey, that will take a lot of money muscle (institution money) to move this stock up and beyond from here. Looking over the monthly charts, we have an opportunity to make a speculation about the future of FB. If we were placing bets two months ago, the Jan2014 calls were trading for $0.11 cents and now they hit a high this week of $6.50. Had you bought 100 contracts for $1,100 your investment could have turned into $65,000. Will FB repeat this to the upside? Anything can happen but now that this stock has risen so fast, the calls have a ton of premium packed in so your risk investment is much larger for the same contract size.

When everyone wants to get long, then nobody wants to get short so there is where opportunity can reward you. We know that when a stock gets crushed, it can fall farther and faster than it goes up, so making money can be even more lucrative when put options go your way. That being said, I am speculating with some Jan2014 $23 puts. If FB does take a massive turn for the worse, the major support is $21, so I want to have the best probability of being in-the-money and cashing in for a huge profit.

For a long play, I am going to pick up some Jan14 $50 calls because I know from experience that when a stock makes a move over $40, it has a very high probability it will make a play for $50.

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8/29/13 - Rocking and rolling as FB attacks the recent IPO highs. This weeks patterns on the daily chart are interesting looking to say the least. We have, in essence, a triple DOJI top formation that will result in a large measured move. If September kicks off the markets in bull mode, and FB can make moves over $42, then I am taking a long position anticipating this stock will make an initial run to $50. It has to clear the $45 intraday post IPO high, but that will be easily taken out by a gap most likely. Now if the FB fails to make the move, I would expect at least a 55% retracement of the previous two months stellar rise.

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8/15/13 - Will FB drop the bid for new heights? In my experience, when a stock makes massive gains and holds strong in the face of a market wide correction, those are the stocks you want to take long positions in; and FB is showing us today that investors are not afraid to keep the shares they have bought since the stellar earnings rise. Of course, FB is more than capable to pull back some more, but any rally in the markets and FB is definitely going higher. Continued selling and start accumulating shares in this stock.

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8/13/13 - The test of FB's resolve is under foot. I decided to ADD more shares instead of selling, and if FB does keep pulling back, then I will sell Sep13 covered calls since I have my other plays in place.  My 30 calls were profit stopped out today for a massive Lotto Trade Profit!!

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8/11/13 - FB has been quiet for the past week but volume has been strong indicating accumulation. Volume on Sep and Oct calls has been strong with the bulk of the open interest at $40 which will prove to be strong resistance. If FB does get over their intraday IPO high, I suspect there are BIG orders waiting there and FB will see a short term rise over $45.00. Any dips back under my battle zone will be bought by bargain hunters thinking FB has turned the corner, so if FB pulls back this week, then I would expect a bounce that MUST hold.

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8/8/13 - FB has been edging higher testing the waters of it's IPO price and so far, it's holding ground. I think this stock has finally made the turn in the minds of institutional investors and every day it holds above the IPO price, pressure is building for the next POP and ROCK higher. This is a long term stock investment but very susceptible to wide price moves back down if any bad news hits so be willing to take the ride both ways. I am going to start selling some Naked Puts and speculate on OTM calls because if this stock takes off again, the next move should be at least 55% of the last two weeks Bull explosion!

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7/31/13 - FINALLY!  FB surpasses its original IPO price and now all the talking heads are saying BUY BUY BUY...lol...what a bunch of moronic followers they are. No one is willing to really put their ass on the line before the action happens, but they all want to taught how brilliant they are after the fact.

If you were following my trade ideas on FB then you are VERY HAPPY right about now as I am ahead of the curve as usual!

Ok, so is this the beginning of the next GOOG or what? Well, I will have to wait until I see FB trading at $100 before I can confirm that...lol

Seriously, I think FB has the potential to climb the ladder of share price and beyond but I am not a FB junkie, I do not even like using the site myself, but a billion plus people do and that translates into BIG BUCKS as they improve and grow their service.

The newest rumor is they will be added to the S&P 500 in the near future and when that happens, this stock is on it's way to $50 in no time. Question for you is, can you make the long term investment and go through the price swings? I say YES YOU CAN and should start accumulating a position in this stock as a very long term buy and hold. I plan to sell naked puts so I can get paid to own it and I will continue to speculate on call strategies because this stock has now shifted bias in the minds of institutional investors and once they start the buying, UP UP UP is all FB is going to do.

The best way to get into this stock is buy some shares now, then place orders 8% under and sell some Jan 14 Naked Puts 10% under. If FB only pulls back to the post earnings pop then I plan to get more aggressive.

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7/25/13 -  BAM!!!!!!!!! Another Mega Lotto Ticket Cashed In!!!!! I am keeping the Aug13 30's with a stop and see if FB can continue higher.

FB may take some profits tomorrow, but any dips will be met with BUYERS so do not get too greedy if you catch any WW puts.

Note: I am fishing for AugWk1 on the WW Calls

Here is what the LOTTO 30 Calls did today. Congrats if you were able to get in on this trade recommendation!!

Still have the Aug13 30's with stop at $4.00

The best guide to upside is a substantial DROP in short interest so keep your eye on this one at www.ShortSqueeze.com

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7/24/13 - FB SURPRISED and stock explodes up 20%!!!!!!  WOW my Lotto plays are looking pretty strong right now.

Tomorrow we stand a very good chance to catch a White Whale too!

FB is well above my Bull 180 T4 target and I do not see it pulling back that far based on the report and conference call. This stock may have set the low and finally starting to find its way to the future. It has the potential to take out its IPO price so any dips tomorrow are buyable. I will be selling Naked Puts in the morning if I can get a pull back.

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7/22/13 - Engulfing candle and two SGB's strongly indicating FB is going down unless they have a very unexpected quarter. Then we could see some big gains in this stock. This is a love it or hate it stock right now, so pick your side or sides and see what you get. The Aug 13 calls are getting better than 2:1 volume over the puts so there is some big money betting on a blow out. The Aug 30's traded 29,000 today! That could be sellers but most likely buyers.—I am going to speculate on some of the Aug13 30 calls and 20 puts tomorrow.

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7/19/13 - A move over the SGB and then a return to it today. My naked calls expired at 100% credit. Looking like it wants to go higher but probably won't make a measured move until earnings are release.

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7/11/13 - FB put in a SGB today so I sold some of my shares. If it can get past this one and the previous one that started a long slide down, then I will sell some Naked Puts. I am keeping my 500 shares as a long term play.

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7/10/13 - I see FB is coming back to life. I have not been paying any attention to it and for now I am just keeping the positions on that I have.

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6/23/13 - A decent rally on Friday brought some life back into my long shares and naked puts. I am not happy the day ended as an SGB, but since it has a long bottoming tail, that may be good enough to keep the bulls interest, but until it takes out the topping tales form last week, FB is vulnerable to more selling pressure. Since I am long a lot of shares, I will sell covered calls if it fails to hold over T2 this week. The weekly chart is promising so long as FB stays above both SGB's there.

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6/20/13 - I tolled out my Naked Puts to July and I bought 1k shares and will sell covered calls if FB breaks below the SGB on the weekly chart. I am looking for this stock to make a recovery into earnings and if they beat this quarter, I think this stock will make its way to old highs. If not, this stock may never get back to it's IPO price for a long time. I am a long term holder of this stock for now.

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6/12/13 - All the euphoria is wearing off and FB is resuming its current trajectory...DOWN. The weekly chart is now an SGB, and if that remains, then I expect FB to move lower filling the recent gap and testing the bottom SGB range.

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6/10/13 - A very nice day to be long FB. A couple of news stories and some very positive comments that FB is the buy of the century gave rise to this stock. Hmm, how is it that all these "savvy" analysts seem to come on CNBlahC and tout stocks are "great" buys or sells when things are massively oversold or overbought? How come they are not ahead of the action? I know I am and I put myself out there good or bad.

Ok, so is this a pump and dump? Well, that depends on how FB handles the SGB on the weekly chart. Today's impressive rally was stopped dead with a close under so until FB can make that move over it on a close, then I would have a stop on any longs at today's low.

I have been waiting for a Bull 180 that has failed once and now it's attempting to move higher gain. Notice how FB stopped dead at T2? Well, that means that SGB is pretty strong so any further rise should be to T3.

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6/9/13 - Are we there yet? The bottom that is. Can FB find its base and begging the climb back up to the top of the mountain? Well, it will take a substantial amount of positive news to get this massive selling to stop. Typically, when selling has exhausted, it usually happen on very large volume with long bars and then wicks on the bottom of sideways action; however, FB is a new stock so there is not that much data to correlate to. As long as FB is inside all three of these SGB ranges, the stock is more likely to head lower until the next earnings release. I am pretty invested on the long side so I will not be involved in any more until FB gets back over $24.50.

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6/5/13 - FB is now vulnerable to drop under $20 if it does not move back over $23.50 soon. This stock needs a big time news story or major announcement to get it kick started again. It is on a trek to test it's lows back in 2012 and if the next quarter is bad, this stock could be under $10. I am getting crushed on my Naked Puts but I am managing with day trades to cover that deficit. I am more than willing to take on the shares if I get assigned  so I will continue to roll out until I recover or own the shares.

If and when this stock does find support again, we should get a nice pop in price for a couple of days—maybe it will start this Friday.

IF FB fails these next two SGB's then Sub $20 is looking inevitable.

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6/4/13 - Stopped out of my B180 long shares. This stock is about to fail the SGB zone and that means DOWN. I bought some JunWk1 $20.50 puts today just in case it melts down the rest of the week.

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6/3/13 - FB finished the last week of trading in May with a very long-wicked SGB. The next move is going to be? The SGB is proven to be DOWN and with so much selling (dumping) in this stock, it will be very hard to prove otherwise. If FB does manage to make the trek higher, it will have to get over the 200MA and stay over it. I have primarily stuck my neck out on the long side as I am a long-term hoper the stock will some day make the grade with institutional investors and become a $100 plus winner. I plan on trading around these price levels with puts since I have plenty of long positions.

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5/30/13 - DANG! Upgrades today sparked a rally. Will it be a suckers rally? I am ALWAYS cautious when "upgrades" come out at the end of trading months. Especially when stocks are getting dumped like FB has been. I jumped on just like everyone else today, but I am cautiously optimistic. The weekly chart shows a very nice Dragonfly DOJI which is considered a very Bullish pattern when it happens at the bottom of a very large sell of.

IF FB fails to move higher next week, then this DOJI will be a failure and the stock will quickly plummet under $20 in my estimation.

The Bull 180 is in full swing with T2 taken out and now we look for T3

I was bummed we did not get one more drop so my 50 puts could have banked me a fat profit, but so it goes with any Lotto Ticket—you lose most until the winner lands in your lap!

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5/29/13 - No green bar today, instead we get a gap down and then a nice slide into my SGB zone on the daily chart. I jumped on a 15 minute Bull 180 this morning and managed a small profit, but that turned into a loss as FB gave up the momentum and resumed its usual trend...DOWN. I was a wee bit frustrated to say the least. I know it's getting close to a capitulation event so I am standing ready to jump back in on a green bar day.

I did buy 50 of the MayWk5 23 puts so what I really want to see is a nice gap down again tomorrow and then that capitulation sell off to $20! Oh that would be grand, about $10 grand to be exact!

We are now down 18 days from the Bear 180 reversal so it may just take a full 21 before FB finds a support rally and attempts to get back to the 200MA.

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5/28/13 - Gap and CRAPOLA is what happened to FB today. We are looking for the Bull 180 to show up on the Daily chart and below is the patter we want to see. If you get that pattern, it is a Level 3 event!

This stock is getting dumped with extreme prejudice! This is EXACTLY what you want to see because the snap back can be enormous so start accumulating some OTM Jun calls up to the 89MA on the daily chart.

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5/27/13 - Under the 200MA...wow. My puts made a nice profit into the late afternoon trading, but if you did not take it, over half that profit was wiped away as FB found a bid and made a pretty decent bounce higher in the final 30 minutes of trading. There was no after ours action, so we will see what happens at the open tomorrow—I suspect FB will attempt to get back over the 200MA if the markets rally.

I am managing my positions and looking for the next opportunity to get some long shares as we have a perfect Bull 180 setup in play and if FB shows me a green bar, I will get long with a strict stop below Friday's low.

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5/22/13 - Touch down on the 200MA and this could be the beginning of the melt-down or melt-up. I bought some protective puts ($24.50) yesterday and good thing I did because it's looking like FB will indeed move back to $20 if the 200 MA is taken out.

FB blew right by T3 and that makes me nervous with my Jun $28 naked puts being ITM. If my puts make me enough money to break even this trade, I will buy them back and sell a lower strike price to re-collect the premium I was shooting for.

As for my long shares, I plan on holding them for the long haul.

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5/21/13 - FB is touched down right on my T3 target. Will it make the bounce here or just keep on dropping? Well, with three SGB's showing, I am not getting a good feeling about any upside, but that can change in a day with any news because this stock is always on the potential run with future compelling news. I will stick with my naked puts and long shares for now.

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5/15/13 - FB is getting close to the Bear 180 T3 and so any green bar on the daily chart and I am long again. So far, it's holding ground at the lower SGB so if it can stay above it, there is a good chance it will make the journey back to $30. Any long positions started will have a strict stop at the bottom of the SGB $25.70

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5/15/13 - Not looking too good lately, but I am optimistic it will find some love soon. Right now, the money is going into GOOG, so when the market gets ready to take profits, FB will be a place to run the money into. The Bear 180 is still technically in tact and FB may get down to T3. The Bull 180 setup is now a Level 1 so I am just sticking with my long shares and Naked Puts for now until FB can get back over the SGB from 4/29/13.

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5/9/13 - Positive comments on CNBC today started a nice rally, but it was heavily sold off all day ending in a perfect DOJI with a very long wick on the topside. This will be interesting to see how it plays out tomorrow. I jumped on long shares and sold a Naked put and now I am not felling all that great about it as I saw a nice profit dwindle to a break even by the close. When FB failed at $29, it turned in to a perfect Bear 180 play with a perfect stop at T2.

If FB moves back up tomorrow, then we now have a Level 2 Bull 180.

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5/3/13 - No follow through on a market wide rally. I was profit stopped out of my calls and now I am flat. I am waiting for a pull back to $27.00 and I will sell some naked puts. When the 8ma and the 89ma merge FB should find support.

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5/2/13 - Dang, the stock takes off this morning stopping me out of every thing except my call play from a last month. I have had a very tough time trading FB. I am going to leave this stock alone and sell some naked puts on the next pull back when the premium is pumped up.

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5/1/30 - Earnings beat but not a blowout. Conference call was low key and they are still spending billions on development that will or won't manifest into earnings for the future. They keep gaining subscriber base world wide and mobile revenue is growing, so once the company can bring in more money in mobile than they are spending in expansion, then this stock will find itself at $100 or more. For the short-term it will just be stuck under the IPO price. I suspect the Bear 180 setup will hold tomorrow so I sold my long shares and shorted in after hours.

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4/30/13 - Earnings are tomorrow and FB is looking like it wants to make a move. Question is, what will that move be? If we look at the daily chart, we have two SGB events that have, so far, been ignored. This indicates FB has a lot of momentum behind it and if the earnings, particularly in mobile, are a blow out like the last two quarters, then we should see FB head higher...I am just cautions when there are SGB's involved.

We also have a strong Bear 180 setup; however, the next red bar will be earnings based and most likely a big one. That means you would have to speculate by tomorrow if you were to short the stock. I am long shares for the long haul so I cannot get short stock. If FB fails then I will just manage with covered calls.

Two day's ago FB was looking like it put in a Shooting Start Doji—which is a 90% SHORT. Today, the stock is attempting to attack the high of that wick. With the 89MA rolling over, there is plenty of resistance and that is what make for explosive moves if the stock surprises.

Current short interest in FB is only:

Since there is such a low short interest, it would have to be lifted higher (more than 10%) by institutional buyers which is usually done over longer time frames.

The expected move so far is only $2.01 which is less than 10%.

Ok, so what else can we look at for clues? Option Open Interest! It's looking like investors are placing bets on the calls at $28 so if you want to gamble on a "beat" then I would not go any further OTM then $31.00

I am moderately bullish on FB in the LONG TERM, but for this week, I am going to gamble on OTM calls and puts because the last earnings report, FB beat estimates by a wide margin (.17 actual vs. .11 est.) and the stock was dumped for 9 days. The quarter before that, it was another big beat (.12 actual vs. .06 est.) and the stock initially sold off was launched nearly 45% in three weeks. This sucker is trades in extremes...perfect for options traders!

I am going with a couple Lotto Trade OTM since I already have my other trades working.

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25/13 - So far so good, but with that SGB back on Tuesday, FB could fail and make a power drop so I am ready to sell a covered call under $25.75

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4/22/13 - A tough week for FB longs but it's appears the stock wants to hold price at the 200MA. I rolled out my May puts and I am still waiting to sell some more if FB drops under $25 and shows signs of rebounding.

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4/18/13 - Ah the pull back I was hoping for finally kicked in and FB touch down at the 200MA. My 28 puts are now in profit territory but with the bounce off the 200MA FB may put on a rally tomorrow. If FB continues to drop, I will be rolling out my $25 Naked Puts into May and collecting more premium.

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4/17/13 - FB is finding some support at the 21MA but it needs to get back over the 8MA to keep the Bull motivated. I need it to get some momentum and pull back to $25.50 by Friday to make my $26 Puts profitable. My $28 puts are almost back to a break even so I am ready to take profits or put in a stop loss at what I paid if they get a move on.

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4/16/13 - No new plays today, just looking for my 28 puts to make some profits but so far, it's not looking too good.

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4/15/13 - I jumped on more puts today and will look to take profits by Wed as I think this is a short term pull back.

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4/13/13 - Slapped back down but not taken out yet. The 8 and 21ma on the daily are holding, and with the 200MA still pointing down, that will make it difficult for FB to hold onto any gains until the earnings are released on 5/1/13. There will be lots of volatility as this will be a heavy week of earnings with several big names reporting. If GOOG does well and reports increased or decreased mobile revenue that should lift or depress FB so be ready for that. The 89MA is proving to be the roof for this stock for now, so I would be a buyer if it moves to take it out or we get a drop back to the 21ma.

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4/11/13 - Another strong day for FB that was stopped dead at the 89MA. We need another shot in the news arm department to keep the momentum going. This means the rallies are not driven by enthusiasm and more driven by short covering. Since the short interest is pretty low (38.9M) the covering survives only one to two days. I think the stock could have made more headway, but the latest news is Zuck is becoming a political activist for immigration instead of keeping his head in the running of his business. This news has to be digested and played out so investors are taking a pause for now. Earnings are coming 5/1/13 so we should have some more volatility as the day approaches. If FB does break out over the 89MA I will add my pending positions tomorrow. On the other hand, if the markets turn ugly and FB fails at the 89MA I will do a Friday Lotto Play.

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4/10/13 - Upgrades and all the markets going vertical is taking FB up up and away! With upgrades and news that GM is going to do some test advertising on FB mobile is getting this stock into rally mode.

If FB gets over the 89MA I am going to buy some May calls and speculate on some weekly calls tomorrow.

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4/8/13 - No follow through on last weeks upside indicating the news of their phone app is not that exciting. Of course that can change once its implemented and the public has a chance to use it. So far, the tech press pundits have declared the app a "compelling product" if you are a heavy user of Facebook.

I am still long the stock with the Bull180 in full swing. My long stock has profits building and I will stop out at $26.50. My Apr13 25 Naked puts can be bought back for .09 but I am going to stick with the trade until I can buy them back for .05 or less. My Apr13 26 puts are there for a hedge on my long play.

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4/4/13 - The news event/announcement of a new android app today produced a flurry of buying with more in after hours too. Is this the event to propel FB back into the $30's and beyond? Well only EARNINGS will tell that story. My Bull 180 on the weekly chart executed perfectly and we are well on our way to target 2. I have a hard stop in and will trail it up to lock in profits.—If FB decides the news is just not enough, then I will buy back my naked puts tomorrow.

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4/3/13 - FB is attempting to rise off the weekly Bull 180 setup. This particular set up is not a textbook play, but if FB can get over $26.50 then I would be looking for it to move up to $29.00 now that target 1 has been taken out.

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4/2/13 - FB attempted to make a move today but those pesky sellers are still sitting in the low $26.00 range.

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4/1/13 - As we start the first trading day of Q2 FB took the day off closing basically flat on the day. The 15 minute chart has some interesting patterns in it indicating FB wants to go lower, but we know this stock can and will move higher on any "newsy" story. That is why I am more interested in selling premium for now vs. putting direct capital into a trade direction. I am still waiting to add more NP positions.

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3/28/13 - What a good news story gives, gravity can take away. At least FB managed to hold just above a 55% retracement from yesterday's high and the 200MA on the daily chart. This is a positive sign that yesterdays buyers are still confident they made a good decision. The daily chart suggests FB may have found it's bottom, but the big challenge is the weekly chart completed with another red bar and this one is a long tailed doji. This means a bigger move is on the way; and with the overall markets showing continued resistance to going down, FB might finally rise with the tide. Now if the stock does manage to dive back under the 200MA, then I suspect there will be a power move lower or a capitulation event to clear out all of the sellers and force the shorts to cover.

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3/27/13 - No bounce...just a launch is more like it. As I said, if FB caught a bid the shorts would run for cover and that is what I think happened today. In pre-market FB was heading lower until a couple of news stories hit the wires causing a rapid rise in the first 15 minutes of trading. Once that happened, there was no looking back today and off to the races until if found some resistance at $25.80. After lunch trading, FB powered higher indicating buyers were now stepping in. Tomorrow is the final day of trading for the quarter and this pop rally could be portfolio shuffling which means big money is rolling into this stock for next month. The MarWk5 27's are not going to make it into the land of profitability unless FB puts on an even bigger move than it did today—in after hours trading FB was flat.

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3/26/13 - Still no love for FB. Now that the stock is trading under it's 200MA it is vulnerable to ever greater selling. With the markets still making new all time highs daily, FB is capable of catching a bid and if that happens, the shorts will cover. The best upside target I can predict is the 20 MA at $27.00 unless there is a big news event. Downside support is still at $24.00. As for the Level 2 Bull 180 setup, its now a Level 1 for me until FB can put in a wide range bar to the downside. Since the multi day topping out at $32.00, FB in now in it's 8th week of reversal and the 8th red bar on the weekly chart, so I suspect we are very close to a bounce. What we need is a nice capitulation day to blow out all the stop losses and give the bears the profits they want to take. Then we can jump in with bigger size for a rebound rally.

For now, I am still in my positions looking for an opportunity to add more shares as I make profits.

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3/23/13 - FB is still selling off and testing it's 200MA on the daily chart. The volume is still light so I would be looking for a capitulation day if we continue to fall back. Support is at $24.00 for a bigger drop and then at $22.00. FB is now in the middle of the gap zone from Aug 2012 so you know the technical investors are watching close for any signs of life. I suspect a measured move is close so if you like this stock for the long haul, just keep selling naked puts and collect as much rent as you can. FB does like to sell off in 3-4 week chunks, so there is a high probability of going lower this week. Of course, any "good" news and FB will snap back with a vengeance. Just look how much is has moved in the previous weeks off good news.

When FB gets a good news story, it will make nice moves higher in a weeks time. So if next week starts out with a green bar, get long because this stock has pulled back for 8 weeks (Fib number) and this is looking like a decent Level 2 Bull 180 setup to me. I would prefer to have seen last weeks bar longer, but if FB starts the week off in the green, I will sell some more naked puts and/or a bull put spread since I already have shares long.

When FB does move it tends to make up to a $4.00 move in a week so I am going to also pick up some Weekly 27 Calls as a lotto play just in case FB catches a bid this week.

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3/19/13 - So far, FB is holding Monday's opening low, and as long as it can keep doing that, there is upside potential. Not much news going on with the company so we are just in the waiting zone for now. When a stock is stagnate, you can just sell premium with Iron Condor's or Strangles.

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3/17/13 - With the markets moving higher and higher and the S&P ready to take out it's all time high, FB seems to have lost its way with investors. Every time this stock gets a news boost, it's met with consistent selling for multiple days. That indicates big money is very leery to invest in this stock until there is a solid news story backed up by solid earnings in mobile.

Looking over the chart, you can make a strong case this stock is definitely a "Don't-Wanter" with investors—when no body wants it, that is when you should be getting interested. I continue to be optimistic that FB will rise to its IPO price and beyond, but that can literally take years to happen. Who has time to wait when we are traders in the now...for the most part. I do recommend you just buy shares and hold onto them for the future adding with every profit you make trading the short-term moves and selling premium against your shares when pops in price fail.

For us short-term traders, FB is a hard stock to short because every time there is a news story released, the stock powers higher in a quick and volatile reaction. That makes for big profits if you have speculation call plays in place and ince FB has been selling off for several weeks now, the calls have had most of their implied volatility deflated, so now is the time to start speculating for the next upswing.

Based on the chart history, FB will move 10% - 35% over a one to three week time span when positive news surfaces. My plan is to sell premium in the direction of the stock and accumulate OTM calls for the news story jumps in price.

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3/14/13 - This week has been  a steady decline in the share price of FB and as I suspected it was a short, that turned out to be the case. If you jumped on when I indicated it below then you are making a very nice profit. Tomorrow is March expiration and I suspect there will be some more movement in FB as investors jockey for position heading into April.

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3/10/13 - FB had their event and the new "news page" was received with mixed response. The stock sold off on Friday and now has to prove itself this week for the bulls to get on board. The bias is higher ground for most of the talking heads, so go with the trend and take your positions.

The daily chart just started showing the 200MA and currently it's indicating a Short, but if you want to be sure, then you just need to wait it out for at least a week before you can trust it. So far, the 100MA has a strong bias to the upside and that is where I plan to trade.

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3/5/13 - Markets at all time highs and FB trading lower today?? What's up with that? I thought every growth stock would be on the move to new heights—heck, even GRPN was trading higher today.

Someday, we hope to see FB trading at GOOG prices, well, I would be happy to see it trading at LNKD prices. If today's action is any indication, this stock is just flat out being left behind by the big money buyers. I guess until this stock make a serious profit over a couple of consecutive quarts, there will not be any real love for this stock. Cramer was touting it today on his show as a long term buy with a move well over $35.00  as for my current plays, we just may feel some short term pain for a longer term gain so If that be the case, I will just add more shares by selling some premium.

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3/2/13 - FB put on a strong move Friday on news the company is releasing a new "News Feed" technology on 3/7/13. This will keep buying pressure on the stock until the full announcement. I jumped on on that green bar reversal I was looking for and my stop is blow the wick of Thursday's low and FB needs to hold $27.00 to keep the bull buying.

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2/21/13 - Today almost started a fire sale and FB is looking like its still on sale. I was hopeful it would be a rotation winner, but so far, it's not looking good. I am now looking for a drop back to the daily 100MA. I do not expect it to make any moves higher tomorrow, but anything can happen when markets trade at all time highs. There is a lot of confusion and what if's so you have to be ready to act fast if you are a day trader. If not, then pick your spots and buy more time.

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2/20/13 - Breaking down with the markets...maybe. When the markets tend to sell off, some stocks actually go up and FB could be one where investors want to put some of their profits to work. Generally, when big cap stocks start selling off due to profit taking, money rotates to other stocks. If FB holds ground at $28.00 I would say its time to get more long positions. I sold my MarWk1 when everything turned the corner today but will get back into Mar monthly options if FB holds $28. If it fails, then I am looking at the 100MA on the daily as my next solid entry point.

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2/19/13 - FB had a decent day today reaching my $29 strike price and putting in some profits. The volume was below average so that does not make for a really strong upside continuation. I would love to see it blast off this week and take out $30 giving me a very nice profit but if the stock does not get moving higher tomorrow I will take what I can get tomorrow and look at selling some premium.

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2/18/13 - I read an interesting article today on Seeking Alpha about the fate of FB. I find sites like these, hard to trust because they post just about any opinion and the articles make strong points on both sides of the trade. It makes things very difficult for the inexperienced trader to make a correct decision. Well, if you like to use these sites you just may want to consider taking your money to Vegas. My take on this type of news and commentary is to do the opposite of the majority opinion. I have found through my 15+ years of hard trading experience that "talking heads" have basically NO clue and just like to write articles. I am a trader and I trade every single day. I make good decisions and I make bad ones. The way to trade successfully is summed up with my tagline: Entry is Key and Exit is Everything!

The best way to get a key entry is using known chart patterns that represent a clear directional move is coming and then managing that trade with proper money management so you can exit with everything you wanted to get out of the trade—your investment capital risked and then a profit.

So, with FB, this stock is just one that you have to speculate on because it will ALWAYS have supporters and detractors until it finds it's core base of investors and more importantly, fund manager backers. This is why we want to be on the lookout for Bull or Bear Elephant bars to confirm the moves in this stock.

Looking at the daily chart below, you can make a strong case that this stock has more potential to head LOWER. The up days are eclipsed in ATR by the down days indicating the big money is getting out of the stock. The new battle ground for upside potential is $30 - $32 and I suspect that will only be taken out by a gap up or a sold Bull Elephant bar.

Looking at the weekly chart and you get the opposite. The weekly up bars are larger than the down bars and that indicates to me this stock has a lot of potential to really make a strong move higher once it trades over $33.00. If you want to accumulate a position in FB, just get started and then add on 5% pull backs. If you plan on building a large position then you need to carry insurance puts if FB does not hold $25.00

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2/13/13- Just when I was getting excited my puts were going to make a profit this week, FB gets a kick in the ass and starts to move higher all day. A popular hedge fund manager announced he dumped AAPL and bought 3 MILLION shares of FB today. Well, that put in a strong bounce off $27.10. At this point, I do not think I am going to get below $27 unless the market melts down, so I bought some MarWk1 29 calls.

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2/11/13 - FB is losing momentum and looking to move lower. Long term there is a lot of potential especially with the massive move of LNKD last week. It's going to take a couple of quarters for FB to find itself in the minds of fund managers, so until that happens we need to watch how the volume kicks in on rebounds from dips. I need FB to get moving down if my Lotto Puts are going to make me any money. The calls are definitely going to expire worthless ;-(

With the after hours downgrade of FB to a price target of $27.00? Hmm, seems fishy to me but the stock is trading lower in post market so I will gladly take it in stride and hope this gets some momentum behind it tomorrow and drops the stock below $27.00

There will be plenty of trading opportunities with this stock future!

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2/6/13 - So far the week has been showing support  at old resistance  is holding. I do not think FB will move enough to make my calls come back to life but if the markets sell of next week, I could still see the puts make some money.

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2/1/13 - For the first day of Feb trading, FB was a pump and dump. There was no love shown even with the DJ-30 breaking out over 14,000. Next week will be a pivotal moment for FB to find its new direction for the next couple of months, and so far, it's looking like $25.00 is the target vs. $45.00 which I had hoped was going to be the case. I still have two weeks and anything can happen, so for now I will trade the direction of the stock which is SHORT under $32.00

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1/31/13 - FB beats estimates and then gets beat down only to find a bid and short cover all day killing my trades....arrgggg. Will it continue to rise into new heights in Feb or just flounder around the upper 20's. Well, I need a sharp move under $29 tomorrow or a big move over $40 by Feb expiration to make up for my trades that did not work out the past two days. As I said below about multiple upgrades, start looking for shorts and that is what I did, however, there are now multiple downgrades and the stock finds a bottom today???? Hopefully the final half hour of trading may be the sell off I need and if the non-farm payroll report is a disaster, the markets just might take a turn for the worse and I will be a potential happy trader tomorrow. If things will not go my anticipated way then I will just have to grind my way back over the next few months.

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1/30/13 - Times they are a changing and FB beat estimates and improved on mobile touting it as the next full time phase of their growth. In early post market trading the stock beat down 7% but recovered ahead of the conference call. There was not any major developments so the stock sold back down to $30 the rest of the session. The stock may finally be on the road to growth stardom that propels a stocks price well beyond its value; however, FB still has hurdles to overcome in the near term. The move is certainly not a spectacular one but we still have two days for the weekly's and I have two weeks for the rest to find a profit. In the meantime I will continue to day trade the stock for profits and build my long term position.

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1/29/13 - Tomorrow is another much anticipated earnings report from FB and shares have been rallying in recent months after hitting a low near $17. Facebook has been on a sustained climb reaching a recent high of $32.51. In after hours trading FB has pressed higher giving bulls a belief the stock was going higher today. Well, that was not the case. Interestingly enough, FB hit a high in pre market of $32.69 and then the selling started and continu ed ALL DAY. I believe that price points with respect to reversals in stocks are more like secret code than happenstance. Looking at the topped out price, the signal is in the cents of .69 as in longs are getting screwed...lol. Well, it makes sense seeing that the stock was whacked back down today.

Ok, so what are the "guru" analysts saying:

• Raymond James upgraded Facebook to Outperform from Market Perform with a $38 price target.
• Bank of America maintained its Buy rating and $35 price target.
• JPMorgan reiterated its Overweight rating and $35 price target.
• Sterne Agee reiterated its Buy rating and $37 price target.

You know I always say that when multiple analysts from big brokerages start touting a stocks price you better start looking for SHORT opportunities. This time, we just might get lucky and FB may blow out the quarter and pull a NFLX type event—I certainly hope so for my trading accounts sake.

We know that FB has support buyers at $20 and we know that millions of investors are just "hoping" this stock catches a bid and takes off above $45.00 The big problem is in order for that to happen, FB must have institutional investment money pouring into it. Well, if all those "institution" types above like the stock, then maybe we should too.

For me, FB is a long-term buy and hold investment, but I will trade the short-term moves with weekly stocks and take what I can get from week to week. My bias is to go long because the downside is known and the upside is unlimited...per say ;-)

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1/28/13 - The race is on and FB is roaring up to resistance from Jun 2012 at $33.45. If they blow out expectations and make an unexpected announcement, we could very well see this stock move 20% or more like NFLX did...maybe even blow right by the IPO high at $45.00! Now that would make for one heck of an options LOTTO trade.

I am building a long position for the future as well as speculation on the Weekly options. Of course if they disappoint, then you know this stock will be dumped massively and head back to sub $20.00 so OTM puts are definitely on the table. I am overweighting calls and will pick up Feb13 puts as well as a couple of Weekly puts too.

Today the stock moved higher and kept right on going in post market trading on strong daily volume.

The FebWk1 options show strong volume at $30 - $34.00 and $36.00 on the calls and for the puts there are is a lot of action at $29.00

The Feb13 monthly options show heavy 60,000 contract volume on the 35 calls and strong open interest at the 30 puts

Longer term, there is low volume so many investors are not that bullish on this stock a few months into the future and that makes for an opportunity.

Of course if you by the 40's like I am, you are 100% gambling so you need to be ready to accept a 100% loss or just stay at $35 or lower—but hey, I am looking for the .10 cents to $40 returns!!!

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1/25/13 -

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1/22/13 - Nice day to be long FB with a solid move closing over $1.07 higher! With GOOG having a good quarter, we may get the same with FB and start the long term run to higher ground. Trading in FB today was off to the races at the open, but once the excitement wore off, the stock pretty much traded sideways the rest of the day; however, the last 15 minutes was a strong push higher after selling off for 45 minutes. I would have liked to see FB actually rally back over the high of the day; however, it did that in after hours off GOOG's good earnings report. This should make things even more interesting for FB the rest of the week, but if AAPL knocks it out of the park will the big money run back to AAPL?

Option open interest is pegging FB at $34 with 59,222 contracts on the FebWk1 calls and FebWk2 calls have 52,660 too. For March there are 20,740 at the $35.00 strike which means FB has a ton of resistance to get over.

So, if they miss and disappoint, you can expect a drop back to sub $25 and there you will find 31,052 open interest at the Mar 25's.

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1/17/13 - The past few days of selling are due to a pathetic announcement about some new "search" capabilities, and it has put a bit of a scare or doubt into the minds of investors wondering if FB will beat earnings. Well, if they do not beat, in a big way, this is a 100% SHORT; and if they do beat, I still think it's going to be a "sell the news" event, but a very good long-term investment.

The only thing, in my mind, to launch the stock higher in the short-term would be an unexpected announcement like they are buying NFLX or??  Still, this is a long-term buy and hold stock, but if you want to speculate, then you really need to buy more time or be able to sit on your computer and scalp it.

There are plenty of trades to be made and yesterday I caught a textbook Bull 180 play on the 15 minute chart and made some nice profits!!

I also sold my calls yesterday and will be looking for my next trade ahead of earnings in two weeks on the 30th. I am hoping for a pull back to $27.50-$28.00 area and will buy some more shares, but if FB takes off next week, then I will get long over $30.00.

You definitely want to get some OTM FEB puts the day of earnings to protect any long shares you have. Some day in the future this stock has the potential to trade as high as GOOG and AAPL, so you should just start investing in shares and hold onto them for years to come.

For now, since FB has pulled back, I am picking up Calls on Tuesday because they are cheap!

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Jan 30 Calls

1/10/13

Bought these back today - profit=$1.15

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1/15/13 - Profits taken ahead of upcoming new tomorrow that will definitely move the stock. When earnings are released next week, and if they miss expectations, this stock will get whacked and puts are the play to make a lot of money on. You need to just get into a straddle position and see what the market will bring you.

Long term this stock is looking like the new poster child for growth speculation so get some shares and just hold on to them because you may never see this price again if the company kicks butt on earnings and revenue growth projections. Who knows, they may make a bid to buy NFLX this year.

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1/10/13 - The game is getting GOOD!

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1/6/13 - It's time to put on your game face-book!

Friday, FB tested its recent highs and closed above the last high's close which typically means higher prices are about to happen! I am optimistic these last round of upgrade accolades are going to actually play out because AAPL was dumped while FB was pumped! I am thinking big money is looking at FB as the next growth stock of 2013; and if they have a blowout quarter, then get ready to take a ride beyond the IPO price. Of course, if they miss, you better have PUTS in place because you are going to make a ton of money there too!

As I have said in the past, FB is a buy and hold type investment so that means you get long stock or long LEAPS. We can trade weekly options around the volatility so get ready for a very profitable year trading FB!

Profits Up!

The donFranko

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1/3/2013 - A couple of days of euphoria is wearing off fast and FB is showing signs of topping out for the third time. There were a couple of upgrades and buy ratings, but that may be the sucker punch offer while the big holders of the shares dump to the uninformed traders. I am always leery of upgrades especially when stocks are popular and trading at failed highs.

There is still a ridiculous amount of optimism in this stock, so any short traders are always going be ready to cover and that makes for a lot of volatility. I know I have tried several times to trade this stock, and to date, I am not profitable with it yet, so I am eager to find a couple of lotto trades to take care of that for me and this earnings season will be one of the best opportunities to make a ton of money for 2013!—I will be looking for my next trade opportunity as we get close so stay tuned.

Profits Up!

The donFranko

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12/28/12 - FB is losing a lot of its positive momentum as we head into the final day of trading for 2012. With the fall off the Fiscal Cliff almost a lock, there could be even more selling on Monday, but if we get that expected (hopeful) rally deal, then short covering will be massive and FB will no doubt make a very strong move higher. The next earnings released is scheduled for 1/23/12 and this particular one will be an important benchmark for the company with regards to the future of their stock price. If the company surprises, then the race is definitely on for the IPO highs; however, if they disappoint, then you can and will see this stock fall and stay down for months. So, you just have to play a straddle and hope for a big move in either direction on the short term. As I have said in the past, FB is more of very long term investment you buy and just forget about for 5+ years.

For the short-term trader, FB gives us some pretty good volatility to make some profits with. Looking over the chart, I want to see this stock get back over $27 by expiration so I can must collect the premium on my Naked Puts but if I end up getting assigned the stock then I will just sell covered calls for Feb and I will have some puts over earnings just in case they get crushed.

Profits Up!

The donFranko