TLRY Stock Information

Updated 2/13/19

 Stats since last update: 

Next Earnings: 3/18/19 AFTER

Trade Type:

Lotto Calls

Bull Put Spreads

Bear Call Spreads

3/24/19 -  The sector looks to be headed in to a quiet period which means any news can make moves so keeping those wildcard CALL in play 20% OTM could have you waking up to some massive profits. The company beat on sales and will continue to grow their market share. With all the new research being done on CBD oil etc. any positive news will only fuel the fire of the bulls and drive prices higher and HIGHER.

I am adding CGC to my go to list and will also be monitoring several of the cannabis stocks going forward.

MMNFF

ACRGF

HYDF

ABBV

CGC

GWPH

MJ

ACB

CRON

I plan to fish for DoubleUP! Trades and will keep laying my Lotto Trades on these stocks 20% OTM.

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3/14/19 - The buzz wore off quickly as investors could not move the stock in the morning session and now we have a huge bearish engulfing SGB zone candle. Maybe we get a nice drop the rest of the week to salvage the trades on the PUTS. My plan is to continue with my speculation wild card Lotto Trade CALLS 20%-25% OTM and hope to wake up to a Moby Dick on de criminalization news.

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3/13/19 - This stock is being watched closely by every investor in the sector and if they surprise, well, we could see a massive move similar to the parabolic one last year. The stock is currently valued at "high flying" multiples and all the naysayers are clamoring its too expensive; which makes for even more volatility and Lotto Trading opportunities!

The current IV is pumped up at 114% with a MMM of +/- 6.48 so we want to be looking at puts 2x the MMM; however, since it is Monday, the options are going to be expensive so if you cannot afford a direct buy, you could do some Debit or Credit spreads to get in on the coming action. 

The opinions are the company will report in line with estimates, but the speculation is they will not make the grade as demand has outstripped their ability to grow enough to supply that demand; which means they have to outsource production and that creates margin compression. Analysts are projecting between $12.2 million and $18.8 million, with an average estimate of nearly $14.5 million give or take. Now if Tilray hits this average estimate, it would reflect a 45% increase from the previous quarter which makes for an impressive quarter of sorts, but that is not what speculators want...they want the increase to be much higher so they can cash in like a dealer!—long term, the sector is poised to be an absolute goldmine in the greedy minds of speculators, and that will generally keep a solid "bid" under these pot-stocks.

If we get a big dip in TLRY post earnings, the target strikes are the previous gaps; because we know that "all-gaps-get-filled"...eventually.

The interesting thing to notice here is the stock ended yesterday with a SGB parallel to the last one that preceded a massive move over $100. Can this stock see that kind of action again? You bet it can, so I will be playing some wildcard Lotto Calls and will add to my trades post earnings.

The other thing I plan to do is White Whale fishing after we see the earnings reaction. The best strikes to target are the closing price and if the stock gets whacked down, then we are hoping it gets short squeezed like we saw with EA and GRUB a couple weeks back.

Sympathy plays would be in CGC, ACB, CRON, HEXO

There is a big shift coming in the industry as it is expected the Federal government will de-criminalize marijuana; and that will explode the industry higher because banking will be introduced and spawn massive opportunities for investors.

Also, we have a FULL MOON coming this week so I will be expecting some stocks to make a move or the overall markets (SPY, QQQ) to see some action.

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2/13/19 - The stock has been chill trading in a tight range since those two SGB's from the big sell off. There has not been much news in the sector so investors are probably looking for earnings results from CGC this week and I for news to hit the sector. There has been some chatter from some con-grass-smokers-association members to "legalize" Mary Jane in the US and if/when that day comes, there will no doubt be a massive rally in all pot stocks. I am keeping a speculation wildcard CALL in play week-to-week and will continue to sell some credit spreads to help finance them.

I am also keeping an eye on CGC and CRON which is the other big cannabis stocks. CGC is reporting earnings tomorrow after the bell and their earnings report could put some pressure or a catalyst on TLRY which reports earnings on 2/27/19, so I plan to have a straddle in place on CGC.

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1/15/19 - TLRY tumbles over 17% as selling pressure begins from the post-IPO lockup period ending today, allowing early investors to cash in on their investments. Now that the selling has begun, are there more "new" buyers than sellers to slow the stocks decline? Typically, stocks with parabolic moves and/or euphoric cult status continue to trade lower post lockup; and to become price-tied to earnings; however, with this stock, there could be a whole  lotta hippie style lovn' going on Woodstock style with investors.

If you are a speculator, then picking strike prices up to 20% OTM are the way to bet but you must put in GTC fishing orders fully expecting to get filled win-lose-or-draw.

If the selling continues to drive the price below the SGB zone at $68.00 then my bias shifts to bearish with wildcard calls.

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1/14/19 - A continuation day in the cannabis stocks as more news came out on CGC:

Canopy Growth Corp. (CGC) said Monday it was granted a license by New York state to process and produce hemp.

This lifted TLRY another 4.32% today and could be just the beginning of a much larger trend higher once it can clear out the two SGB zones; however, with the end of the lock up period coming tomorrow, there will be some initial pressure on the stock...or so it may seem. Typically when a fresh or popular IPO stock reaches the lock up expiration, pre-IPO shareholders tend to "cash in" and with TLRY that is a substantial profit since it IPO'd at $17.00 and millions of shares were sold below that. The valuation is sky high on this stock, and it is not unreasonable to think this stock could tumble back down over 50%, so the plan would be selling the Bear Call Spreads if the stock fails the current SGB zones between $105 - $120.

Tilray still has one of the highest valuations in the sector despite having no deal for

(potentially) high-margin cannabis drinks, lower production capacity, higher costs,

and less cash than competitors.

Investors should know that, on January 15, 2019, the lock-up on ~80M shares will

expire, giving insiders a chance to become billionaires at the expense of retail investors.

This being said, TLRY looks like an obvious short, but you better be diligent at picking your spots (SGB zones) and being ready to take advantage day to day moves this stock can bring.

If we do get that crushing drop, you know there are plenty of bottom feeders ready to hash out a position and hold for the long-ride...lol

Options are always going to be price-whacked and have large spreads, so hunting lower entry prices on strikes up to 20% OTM on Wed, Thur and Fri makes for some nice Lotto Trade possibilities! Other than that selling credit spreads is a predictable way to capture some profits to fund Lotto Trades.

100

A couple of HOT topic stocks in the past that have come and gone after the lockup are: KKD, GPRO but with cannabis in infancy stages, there is a lot of potential...especially if the Federal Government disbands the apartheid draconian laws on Marijuana possession, consumption and distribution et. al. After all, over 50% of the State governments have legalized Marijuana in one form or another so the Feds strangle hold (keeping banks from doing business in this sector) will be up in smoke in the future—and when that day comes, TLRY, CGC and others will go parabolic!!

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1/13/19 - As we start a new week of trading, TLRY is poised to make another impressive move in either direction. There is a massive "bid" under all cannabis stocks and as the US government backs off draconian laws, this industry is just going to explode HIGHER!!

The move on Friday was off news that majority shareholder Peter Thiel will NOT sell after the lock up period ends

Private-equity backer Privateer Holdings reveals it won’t unload stock in the first half of 2019, removing a major source of uncertainty about the shares.

This stock is massively overvalued, but that means nothing to the frenzy motivated investing public so Market Makers are more than willing to manipulate this stock and cash in. What I will be doing all year is FISH for options up to 20% OTM every day and hope to catch another Moby Dick opportunity like what happened last week and make 6-figures in a day or two.

1/11/19 -  I normally do not follow TLRY, but I am going to follow and trade it for all of 2019!  WOW what a Moby Dick trade these turned into today...and there WILL BE ANOTHER ONE COMING!!

The game plan is to start laying fishing orders Wed and Thur on strikes up to 20% OTM on 4 strikes below that at $0.05 - $0.20 and see what we can get filled on.