Option Plays for – TSLA
The trades below are for educational purposes only.
They are not recommendations to purchase any particular stock or options contract.
Note: they are suggested entry and exit points! disclaimer
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Stock Information Updated 1/19/19 |
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Stats since last update:
Earnings: 10/31/18 After
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TSLA Commentary
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OMG! Moby Dick showed up Friday on TSLA and the potential for a 6-Figure winner was there (I hope some of my subscribers/students) had TSLA as a "go to" stock this year as you are VERY HAPPY this weekend if you did!
Although I did not have any trade ideas posted to the site, I want to use this opportunity to show you the Lotto Trade strategy WORKS and this scenario WILL happen again!!
Ok, so here is another TEXTBOOK lesson of what my strategy can and WILL do for us in the future on ANY stock (especially the high beta ones like: FB, NFLX, AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, CMG, POT STOCKS, so you need to be educated on this PROVEN Lotto Trade strategy and READY to place your orders every week this entire year!!
If you have the bankroll to do multiple stocks every week, then you will dramatically increase your odds of connecting with a Lotto Trade; and also hook onto a Moby Dick several times this year; however, if you have limited capital, you can pick any TWO high beta stocks and you should catch moves similar to TSLA in 2019...then you can open up your universe of stocks and/or follow the trade ideas I post to this site. Either way, the formula works and you just have to apply it every week to your stocks!!!
When you are hunting for your Moby Dick's you want to pay very close attention to the SGB zones because they are proven to be the KEYS to the profits kingdom so you want to target your strikes you buy there. The best thing to do is get strikes just above the bottom of the zones for PUTS and just under the top of zones for CALLS.
When calculating your anticipated move, go up to 15% OTM for PUTS and 10% OTM for CALLS and if the strikes are in the ZONE and less than $0.10 that is where you speculate with wild card LARGE contract loads.
Based on the Lotto Trade formula, the strikes to fish/buy on TSLA would have been the 335 / 330 / 325 and the 310's for the wildcard. When I am Lotto Trade fishing, I like to stick to $0.20 or lower; and if the options are already prices right; I just BUY in at that price; otherwise, I put in GTC orders daily and adjust if not filled.
With TSLA, they were already prices perfectly, so you would have just bought your contracts on the spot!
Here was the potential when stocks get whacked like TSLA did...and it WILL happen again on TSLA or any stock!
Look at it like this.
If you are fishing orders at $0.20 per contract every week, then you are placing bets for $20.00 (plus commission) per contract per stock. The more stocks you can follow, the better your odds of connecting with a Moby Dick Lotto Trade and CASH IN!
If you do not have the bankroll to follow several stocks every week, then you pick 2, and over the next 52 weeks, you WILL hook onto a Moby Dick and multiple Lotto Trades!!—just one of these Moby Dicks trades as you can see above will make you enough profits to keep fishing for 1 - 2 more years on a single stock or several months on multiple stocks.
The goal here is NOT swinging for the fences on a single trade or strike price (been there done that and it just does not work often enough), but building your contract size with winners so you can expand your strikes, stocks and more size once the profits kick in!
Over the past 5 years, I have posted HUNDREDS of winning Lotto Trades for my subscribers, and the one constant I can point to is you MUST be diligent and consistent in laying those orders every week on your chosen universe of stocks. If you are just "picking" some of my posted trade ideas randomly, then you will have a very long road of ups and downs.
If you want a faster track to the land of profitability, then you pick your "go to" stocks and consistently place your orders every week whether I post trade ideas or not.
I do not cover too many stocks on the site, but if you review the previous model portfolios, you will discover that any SINGLE stock I have covered have ALL made huge profits as you compounded your contract size AFTER each winning trade—even starting at simply 1 (ONE) contract because this strategy works over the long haul!
Get ready to start hooking onto more Moby Dick Lotto Trades in 2019 and I will do my best to find several opportunities I can point out for you!!!!
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10/14/18 - TSLA appears to have found a triple bottom as the markets were taking a beating this week. Friday, the stock put in a SGB which gives us a nice pivot point to make trading decision; and with this weekends non-antagonistic tweets from CEO Musk could start a potential comeback if the markets hold ground too. The line in the sand for me will be the 200MA on the weekly chart, but any upside action I will view as very short-term opportunities as I am sure many big money investors are in a wait-n-see mode until the Model 3 sales figures roll out in 2019. Still, this is a "cult" stock and it sure loves to move around so when you are laying orders for Lotto Trades, but be sure to always put in lower offers to get better fills. What I plan to do is sell some ATM Bull Put spreads and buy some $295 CALLS.
What I plan to do is sell some ATM Bull Put spreads and buy some $295 CALLS then I will fish the 225 Puts at $0.25.
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10/10/18 - Markets are in "crash" mode and TSLA is actually one of the stronger stocks today indicating the Bears are fully invested and looking to take profits soon; however, will the Bulls start to test the waters again or are they still recovering from the cattle prodding they took this month? In after hours, there were more TWEETS from Mr. Musk debunking the Chair Seat will NOT be taken by James Murdoch—which has the stock trading down another (-4.68) in after hours.
The fate of this stock pretty much hangs on the next COB, and if he/she is not a dream weaver for the cult-Bulls, then the Bears will wake up from their dream catcher fantasies and slam this stock BELOW the SEC bottom at $252.25. If you were not already invested in PUTS, then the IV is pumped up way too much to get in now; however, you could sell some credit spreads and continue to fish wild-card Lotto Trade Calls just in case Mr. Musk actually comes through with a legitimate buyout offer—I wonder if Mr. Musk's favorite song is "Dream Weaver"
I am still fishing for wild card Lotto Calls on strikes up to 20% OTM and will keep on selling credit spreads in the direction of momentum to fund them because once the toxic dust settles, this stock is either going to make short seller history of bear meat for the next two decades.
=================================================================================================================== 10/7/18 - The Bears managed to claw TSLA back down to their post-pot breakdown level because Mr. Musk just can't keep his fingers off the twitter keyboard...I think he saw a puddy-SPLAT this time with his stock...roflmao
Is Mr. Musk playing a cat-mouse game with the shorts or has he just lost his mind as many are beginning to believe and his beloved company will implode making short sellers history? Only time can tell the end of this story but we have to be diligent to capitalize on the movements. I was "close" to hooking us into a Moby Dick this week, and if you were closely following those 275 puts I posted and you had the potential to get in them for a second time only way cheaper with a massive profit. I know I was amazed at the move and even I missed out on this one...but I LEARN something new every time I do and so should you! This type of scenario will repeat in similar fashion again in either TSLA or any stock, so you have to REMEMBER this and prepare for it again so I/we can get the rewards in our trading future!
I am confident that TSLA will give us a lot more opportunities and so I am adding this as one of my "go to" stocks and will be applying my Lotto Trade formula each week.
Now let's think about something for a moment. Either Mr. Musk is just an eccentric personality who is "Lost in space-X" looking for a planet Earth exit; or he is very calculated playing a massive cat-n-mouse type chess game with his detractors. I mean, who or what CEO would do the behaviors of this guy unless they are just whacked out? If Mr. Musk's devotees wake up and lose faith, then this stock is definitely going to become another doldrums "car" stock and probably knows that which is why I think he "floated" the idea of a buyout and is indeed in talks with investors to just buy the company out. I for one, do not think he has "lost" his mind and is indeed playing a high stakes game to CRUSH his detractors (short sellers) who are keeping this stock from already being a $1,000 or more per share phenomenon. Ok, so if the latter is the truth, then we need to be keeping wildcard Lotto Calls in place every week and selling some ITM Bull Put Spreads to pay for them. Then we continue to play weekly Lotto Trades in the direction of momentum and SGB's. Since he tweeted a price of $420, I want to always have my CALL strikes under $420 and will load when I can get option strikes around $400 for $0.05.
This week we can get the $380's for $0.06 and next weeks $400's are $0.01 so I am going to be placing fishing orders at $0.05 and will add at lower strikes if the stock continues to drop. To help me pay for these I will be selling credit spreads a month into the future inside a 15% move up or down.
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10/4/18 - TSLA sticks it to the shorts for a day and then the shorts stick it to the bulls the rest of the week. What a roller coaster this stock has been and a VERY difficult one to trade. Elon Musk is at it gain with his tweets (and rightly so in my opinion) mocking the SEC.
Just days after announcing a settlement with the SEC that would cost him $20 million and his spot as chairman of the board, this afternoon Elon Musk tweeted "Just want to that the Shortseller Enrichment Commission is doing incredible work. Just want to that the Shortseller Enrichment Commission
That did not please investors and they headed for the doors dropping the stock another -4.40% today; however, the options barely doubled because the IV is sooo pumped up in this stock the Market Makers will NOT let you make a windfall profit.
It is looking now like the shorts will continue to win since the markets are also in a SGB downward spiral, but you just never know with this stock which way the winds will blow and that can make for some nice Lotto Trades.
The plan is to keep fishing for opportunities and try to get in cheap. My thinking is Elon does have a buyer out there and is setting up the shorts for a total kick in the nutz with a "real" buyout of the company in the future. I just do not think this man is a dolt as so many imply and he is definitely playing a masterful chess game with his detractors. So, what if that "$420" price quote is indeed accurate? Then the shorts will get their heads chopped off and you and I could land a potential MILLION DOLLAR Moby Dick Lotto Trade by keeping some wild card Calls in place every week.
My plan is to keep trading in the direction of momentum, but buying those wild card calls as I make profits along the way with this stock.
=========================================================================================================== 10/1/18 - TSLA CEO Elon Musk has cut a deal with the SEC and will pay a hefty $20M fine and remain as CEO; however, he will step down as Chairman of the Board for three years and that has the stock ready to open up over $300 a share—and that may just be the beginning!
I picked up some PUTS but did not get any CALLS on Friday nor did I buy any for this week; which I am sorely regretting that right now. My plan is to sell some Bull Put Spreads a month into the future at the 290 - 300 strikes and will be day trading TSLA stock as there will be a ton of volatility today. If you plan to place any CALL options trades, you must fish for lower prices at least 25% below the current BIDS or you will just pay too much and get chopped up in the IV squeeze.
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9/27/18 - TSLA is getting CRUSHED in after hours trading from the news that the SEC is suing CEO Elon Musk for fraud...maybe they drop the next hammer and pursue criminal charges too...wow.
If TSLA is one of your "go to" stocks; and you were doing the Lotto Trade formula; then you will be waking up to HUGE profits like these are looking to be at the moment in my model portfolio!!!
If you missed out this time no worries because THERE IS ANOTHER ONE COMING with TSLA; and you can bet there will be plenty of Lotto Trades coming!!!
So, where is the technical bottom in this stock? That would be at the 200MA on a WEEKLY chart because that was where the SQUEEZE indicator appeared and was triggered three weeks ago.
The question is:
For tomorrow, the play is to WW fish for CALL strikes 10% above the pre-market low because if you are not already in PUTS; then you missed the boat on the downside; however, once the stampede dust settles, we should see some really good opportunities in the coming weeks leading up to earnings.
If you still think TSLA will just get crushed from here, then you may want to speculate for next week on the 200-205 PUT strikes or selling Bear Call Spreads if there is an initial bounce that fails to take out 55% of the after hours range.
Remember, this is a "cult" stock and Musk has millions of adorning (investing) fans, so they could come to his rescue and show solidarity by hitting the BUY BUY BUY button now that all the naysayers are going to come out in droves to tout their genius in shorting this stock. Fundamentally, they are RIGHT, but in this crazy market...might makes right...and it will take months for this SEC lawsuit to play out, so we will have PLENTY OF VOLATILITY in this stock to make LOTTO TRADE PROFITS UP!
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8/4/18 - This stock is looking ripe for a BIG DROP and today Goldman Sachs (GS) "downgraded" the stock to a price target of $210. Whenever I see (GS) announcing Upgrades or Downgrades that is usually the top or bottom and you do the opposite of what they suggest...lol. This time, there is a lot of turmoil and additional negative news that they missed August production goals. I know they are in manufacturing hell as they continue to accelerate into the massive demand, but I think the fairy tale story is wearing off as they start selling the model 3's—buy the rumor sell the news comes to mind.
The daily chart strongly suggests a short play is higher odds, but when you are dealing with a "cult" stock, you can and must be prepared to have zombies come to life and take your head off at any time, so any capital you put into shorting this stock must be money spent...and you hold on for that BIGGER payoff.
With this current news, the stock is only down (-1.81%) in pre-market, so it is hardly effecting the long investors resolve at this time. Now if there is a pile-on situation, then we could see a nice 10% or higher drop this week, so I am going to see how the stock opens today and then start selling some ITM Bear Call Spreads and buying some 255 Puts if I can get in under $0.40 cents.
If and when TSLA gets down to the 200MA at $260, then I will be looking at CALLS 10% OTM.
Bias is neutral
====================================================================================================== 8/26/18 - The fix is in or the slam on the shorts is turning into a traffic jam for TSLA CEO Elon Musk. Over the weekend, he announced that the company will NOT go private and remain a public company. This is good news to shareholders as they are "believers" in this modern day Tony Stark and want to be able to cash in on the future as they roll out the Model 3 and beyond. There are a lot of reason to like and hate this stock, but the one thing you can't do is effectively short it. There will no doubt be some strong volatility this week, so if you plan on trading in the stock, the best (safest) way is to do spreads but you MUST shop for a better price. I am sure that Mr. Musk will have his legal hands full with class action lawsuits from disgruntled shorts, but really? If you short a stock, you full well know you are taking on big risk, so how can the shorts cry over spilled milk when stocks get news that jams them higher; and potentially beyond redemption when a buyout of a company comes? (e.g. LNKD...where were the lawsuits on that one by the shorts?)—whether a buyout happens or does not, I just do not see how these lawsuits will stand in the courts...caveat venditor!
I expect an initial downside reaction at the open; and if the lows are not breached, we could see a massive rally, so I am fishing for ITM Bull Put Spreads at the bottom of the last SGB which is $340 for this week and also for September expiration.
============================================================================================================================= 8/20/18 - The Bears are having their day with TSLA as the stock got whacked on Friday a whopping -8% and now in pre-market it is getting smacked down even more as the negative news, downgrades and CEO comments continue to create an environment of deluge.
This stock is very unpredictable, but it sure sounds and looks like that $420 buyout tweet was a blunder and now the plunder is coming.
If Mr. Musk is delusional, then his stock will be severely pummeled; however, if he actually comes through with a private buyout at that price, then you have your upside so selling ITM credit spreads at the $410 or lower strikes are the way to go for longs and fishing for some puts is a must have if you are a momentum trader—I whish the best for him and his endeavors...he is the modern day real life Tony Stark to many adoring fans.
With this news hitting over the weekend and this morning, the options IV will be PUMPED way up at the open, so you have to FISH for better fills on the Call side at the 310/320 strikes and/or buy some wildcard puts/calls 20% OTM with a all-or-nothing mentality.
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8/12/18 Really BIG news this week was a tweet from TSLA CEO Elon Musk saying he plans to take his company private at $420 per share.
That tweet rocked the investing world all week and gave the shorts a really big gut-check blow causing a multi-day squeeze—I am sure Mr. Musk was laughing his hinny off as he was typing out that tweet, but he knows it would also bring a lot of angst from the shorts who are calling for the scrutiny of regulators.
Mr. Musk has a long history of sticking it to the shorts of his stock, so they are just going to have to keep grimacing and bear it...pun intended.
Post tweet, the shorts certainly continue to claw at this stock; which fell back into an old SGB zone this week; and gives us a good pivot point for our trade bias. If Mr. Musk is bluffing about this, then it could give the Bears all the fuel they need to plunder this stock; however, if he does get that $420 buyout, it's game over for a great Lotto Trading stock just like we saw with LNKD.
As for trading TSLA going forward, we will have a lot less opportunities because the IV is now going to be massively increased in either direction, so if you want in on the potential action, you MUST FISH for better entry prices and have the mentality of all-or-nothing. Since we know the top is $420, we can fish up to 30% OTM on the PUTS; because if Musk cannot secure that buyout, the stock could easily get cut in half as his cult investors lose their faith.
What is next for the company is class action lawsuits; and there was one already filed in San Francisco by plaintiff Kalman Issacs last week. This will bring a lot of uncertainty in the stock and that usually means lower prices to come; however, you have to know Mr. Musk is either a very intelligent man or losing his grip on reality. I think he leans to the intelligent side, but does sometimes make idiot savant moves, tweets and comments—there is a fine line between genius and madness..lol.
A couple links I found interesting:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3381841-shareholder-sues-tesla-fraud-class-action
Bias is still CALLS but need to keep watching this and see if there is a marked shift.
No BIG bets placed Friday
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7/31/18 - Tomorrow we find out if TSLA is still the champ of the imaginations of investors love affair with the company and eccentric CEO or if analysts are still just a bunch of chumps to Mr. Musk. Last quarter, there was a surprise record loss (well, actually the loss that was lower than analysts expected so the stock rallied...HUH? Yeah, I know, it's a crazy world we have when company's just LOSE money, but have ridiculous stock prices anyway), but a bit of a controversy over disparaging comments CEO Elon Musk made towards an analyst in the conference call. Well, this time, things may change his tuning fork into a spear if the company surprises again, but if they miss, well, the "bonehead" analysts may turn into head-hunters and attempt to skewer Mr. Musk; which could cause investors to reconsider his way over valued stock and head for the exits...nah, TSLA is a cult stock, so either way, this roller coaster will continue to take an iron stomach to short-term trade it.
Looking over the charts, there is definitely a change in optimism going on as the stock has given back ALL of its last quarterly gains; and is currently trading UNDER the 200MA. This gives us some good opportunities when momentum kicks in, so we want to keep some wildcard Lotto Trade CALLS up to 20% OTM. The problem here is the IV is so pumped up at 120% buying those calls is just too expensive; therefore, buying Debit Calls Spreads or selling DITM Bull Put Spreads can get you for less—when IV is really pumped up, doing OTM spreads can be a better risk/reward as the IV is crushed no matter what direction the stock takes. The only time I do DITM credit spreads is over earnings announcement because I need the wildcard effect to get the stock past my sold strikes; otherwise, the trade loses the difference from the spread value and the credit received PLUS assignment fees.
Many times just buying the debit spread gets you in cheaper without the assignment fees; and is a better deal than a DITM credit spread; however, you are expending cash at the initiation of a trade vs. taking in cash so depending on your account size, liquidity needs and margin requirements, selling vs. buying can be a good way to go. Also, when things go against you, there is always the "rolling out" feature which keeps cash in your account for long periods of time.
For example:
The MMM is +/-23.52 so that puts the stock at approximately $321.00 by Friday.
If you do a DITM Bull Put Credit Spread 320/315
You can make a maximum of $342.00 for every $158 you risk if TSLA closes above $320.00 on Friday.
If you do a Call Debit Spread 315/320
Then you make $361.00 for every $139.00 invested if TSLA closes above $320 on Friday.
If the stock does not make it there, then you lose on both strategies; however, you pay an assignment fee on the Credit Spread, so in this scenario, the DEBIT spread is cheaper than the CREDIT spread.
I was already filled on my Credit Spreads, so if you have not done any of those trades, then you may want to change over to Debit Spreads; unless you are trading at TastyWorks which charges only 5.00 for assignment.
Investor bias is to the short side which give rise for a squeeze on surprise news.
No big directional bets
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6/25/18 - The interesting news this week was on TSLA which filed a lawsuit against a former employee who allegedly "hacked" TSLA computers and transferred proprietary data to undisclosed third parties. This news started a bit of a sell off on Friday when it was reported an inside person said Musk was hiding information etc. from investors.
You had to be quick on the trigger to get in on the PUT action; which turned into some really nice White Whale trades.
I jumped on it an shorted shares and bought some 345 puts for some quick profits as I scaled out in the morning session.
I also loaded up on some 6/25/18 $300 Puts, and have some good profits building so far, so I will see if the stock continues to get whacked this week and I can cash in!
The company has had a lot of turmoil in the past few weeks; which leads to some uncertainty and increased volatility; so keep your fishing orders in place and get ready to catch some BIG MOVES in this stock as we approach the earnings quarterly release. I started a play on some 6/29 300 Puts Friday and was scalping all day Friday when I heard the news. I am hopeful this will have a couple more days of selling pressure on the stock but anytime this sucker drops anywhere close to 10%, it gets met with buyers, but this time it dropped right past the last SGB zone; and the next one is at $317; then it's sub $300; which is where I am hoping it goes this week so I can cash in! If the stock continues to plummet, you want to be fishing the $340 call strikes, because if the 200MA at $322 holds the line, we could easily see TSLA snap back to the SGB zone at $340. With Elon cutting back on 3,500 non-essential jobs as part of a company wide restructuring should reduces expenses to devote to ramping up production to accommodate the massive demand; however, a failure to make the grade could finally give the Bears a catalyst to push the stock way down. But, you have to remember, this stock is the most shorted stock out there and that translate into buying pressure as shorts either take profits or get caught in a squeeze. I know there are and have been several big time fund managers who are long-term-short-sellers, but until that doomsday they want happens, the world at large is in love with Mr. Musk and his inventions, intentions and desirers to change the world on many fronts—oh, and let's not forget, Mr. Musk loves to use TWTR as lamentations of his warnings of the ramifications to those who would keep shorting his stock and ideas...Pain...Pain...Pain! Ok, so can Mr. Musk cover the losses by cutting jobs? NOPE! But what he does have is the ability to keep raising capital on all his fronts; and one of them being SpaceX (which is not a public company) and is flush with cash from what I have read; plus there are plenty of investors clamoring to get in on the action; so if need be, he may be able to just use that cash cow to prop up Tesla Motors until the production surpasses the demand and his dreams will all come true right? If the time comes that TSLA reports an actual quarterly profit, you can bet your bottom dollar the stock is going to skyrocket just like his real rockets take to the stars, Mars and beyond—oh and did we forget, Mr. Musk is the epitome of the lyrics in Elton John's song Rocket Man: And I think it's gonna be a long long time, 'Till touch down brings me round again to find, I'm not the man they think I am at home, Oh no no no, I'm a rocket man...rocket man, burning out his fuse up here alone!
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11/1/17 - TSLA loses (of course) more money than analyst expectations and bottlenecks in model 3 production caused a stampede for the exits in post trading taking the stock well under the 200MA. This time Musk may not get a pass with big investors and the stock could be well on its way to sub $200 if the Bears have anything to say or do about it. Of course, there is the "love affair" with the public and that can cause a nice squeeze as has happened in the past, but I am feeling this stock has topped out and until the actual model 3's roll off the line, this stock has seen it's high days for now—my bias is to short any rally that does not take out the SGB zone at $350 and lower. Hopefully the puts I posted catch some momentum the rest of the week and we can cash in. I plan to do some WW fishing in the morning and Friday too.
A full retracement of 2017 and this stock drop s back to $220 which makes for some nice profits selling Bear Call Spreads and Lean-n-Sleeps.
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10/31/17 - Looks like the treats came early on TSLA, so tomorrow may be the trick or the kick in the ass or the sugar high if the bulls did not get enough TSLA candy today...lol. The IV has been pumped up some more so now ALL the calls are going to be expensive. I am going to sell the ICU spread at $340 x 5 and then buy some wild card Calls and Puts tomorrow.
Bullish bias today as calls advanced over puts
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10/30/17 - TSLA earnings are coming Wednesday after the bell and this should be a game changer for the stocks direction for the next couple of quarters. With the release of the new model underway, all concerns will be on production delays and/or bottlenecks. Will they be able to meet the overwhelming demand? Most likely NOT but who cares, the public LOVES this stock and the CEO so he will get the proverbial PASS just like AMZN; however, the big funds may not buy in this time and if the charts say anything, they say the big money has left the building. With the stock touching down on the 200MA the past two trading days, you can bet there is going to be some movement, so a surprise and the pump higher can easily move like AMZN and an unexpected miss the drop should easy drop under $300. Options are PUMPED up with IV at 82% so I am going to sell a ICU at the MMM strike and buy some wild card lotto calls and puts 15% OTM.
ICU Trades - Fishing for $9.00 credit. It is best to do this the day of earnings so you get the correct strike and best possible credit. .
Puts beat out calls so shorts will be forced to cover on a surprise.
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7/30/17 - Here we are again at another earnings announcement; and they will most likely report a miss, but who cares if they keep losing money right? After all, the CEO is loved and crowned the King of the electric car world in many investors eyes. Oh, and lets not forget he is considered the "rocket man" too. Ah, but like the song says, could Musk be "burning out his fuse up here alone?" Well, he is not alone because the other stock that loses bazillions and is ignored (AMZN) has its CEO shooting for the start too. These stocks are loved by so many speculators the shorts just keep getting crushed as these CEO's take stage, burn stages and reach for the stars. On the 28th TSLA handed over the first round of Model 3 keys to 30 customers. The rest of the 500k reservations will not get their hands on the prized possession until 2018 so that number can definitely change if negative news breaks their hopes and dreams. In the past, every time the company released a car, the stock was whacked (buy the rumor sell the news) by investors—who were probably taking profits so they could pay cash for one...lol.
The daily chart shows me TSLA put in a SGB on Friday; which will serve as the pivot point for long or short position entry strikes. The weekly chart is where I will focus on short bias if TSLA falls into it at the $308 - $303 range. I will be looking for some wildcard puts and stand ready to sell some longer term Naked Put / Bull Put Spread premium post earnings if the stock surprises.
Looks like some big bets on OTM puts were placed question is were they bought or sold. (Most likely sold puts in my estimation.)
======================================================================================================================================= 5/7/17 - TSLA reports a miss and guides lower so you can expect the Bears to wake up and attempt to claw down the stellar ride this stock has been on. The drop post earnings was non existent and Friday they pumped up the stock setting up the longs for a potential take-down. With the Model 3 coming, there will no doubt be a lot of speculation buyers hanging around but that is months away so profit taking is the likely path below the SGB zone at $297.00—this is where I will be setting up shorts, naked calls and bear call spreads. If the stock gets a squeeze going over the SGB zone then I am looking at selling some Naked Puts and will gladly take on shares should they get put to me. If you cannot do Naked Premium Selling then you simply do spreads and with the intent of capturing 25% of the premium value sold and moving onto the next trade. As always, continue to fish for Lotto Trades as there will be PLENTY of opportunity to catch a White Whale with this stock.
========================================================================================================================== 5/2/17 - What a rocket fueled ride TSLA has been on since my last commentary over a year ago. I cannot believe I have not talked about this stock for over a year now, hmmm, maybe I was not plugged in and ran out of "I can't believe it" power. Oh well, I will just have to take a gasp of spaceXtra light helium and talk like Mickey Mouse for a while...lol.
Ok, so what is one to make of this stellar ride TSLA has been on? Those who bought the E-lon-ticket are making a lot of dough right now; and that means they have a LOT TO PROTECT, so if the stock misses estimates again, it will most likely have NO impact because the company is about to start selling the much anticipated Model 3 later this year. In fact, any news that is good, bad or indifferent will probably rally it even higher; however, if we do get a dip, it will be bought by the masses who did not get in on the last dip back in Feb.
The weekly chart has the stock up for 8-weeks with a SGB close last week, so that is my pivot point for long/short entries.
IV is pumped up pretty high at 76% with a +/-18.39, so buying calls is too expensive; therefore, I am going to go with some wildcard puts 2x the MMM.
On thing to note is the closing price today was 318.89 (89 is a Fibonacci number)...and the countdown has begun!
No real conviction for long or short bias
No BIG bets placed either.
=================================================================================================== 2/10/16 - TSLA misses reporting its fourth-quarter net loss that nearly tripled to $320.4 million as the costs of launching its Model X sport-utility vehicle led to an 11th consecutive quarterly loss and the freaking stock rallies? Well, it was because investors were squeezed and forced to cover once the stock did not plummet like LNKD did.
In fact, this kind of miss should have easily dropped the stock down twice the MMM, but it was not to be (for now anyway) and investors just gave up and ran like a scared stampede of wild buffalo.
Once the conference call got under way, nothing was said to motivate buyers so the stock sold back down a little bit holding above the 34% retracement of the post earnings move. This could be a bullish scenario, but we will have to see what the pre-market shows us; and if TSLA cannot get back over $161; and then take out the post earnings high at $165; I would be shorting shares in the morning because I think this will become a "sell-the-news" event and TSLA will fail the Bull180 setup and slide lower. What is going to be painful is all the puts we bought are not going to pay off on this one and most likely the calls are not either, so it will be make up strategies to get that money back over time.
Remember, this is a love story stock and investors are betting on the future; and that future appears to still be bright for TSLA; so it may very well take off higher tomorrow.
There is plenty of short interest and 7+ days to cover it so since TSLA is in the makings of a Bull180, my bias is long on a green starting candle that holds above the 200MA on the weekly chart; otherwise I will reverse position and short shares after the open.
=============================================================================================================== 2/9/16 - Tomorrow is the big day for TSLA and if SCTY is any indication, investors are showing no love for a Musk company because SCTY was whacked in after hours. Can we get another shot like we did or missed with LNKD? It is a mystery indeed so you place your bets and see what you get. Today I bought in on a total wild card put play with the MarWk3 50 puts because I noticed they were dirt cheap at $0.16 so I picked up some. Depending on what happens tomorrow, I will be looking for some more at a higher strike as my Swing trade and then getting some closer Calls in case we have a big surprise because the short squeeze would be HUGE should that happen.
There was some news that the new 3 series will be priced at $35k before additions so that caused a little bit of a rally in the stock that was sold back down all day closing TSLA at a very slight gain of $0.26.
Ok, so this particular trade is one of those you decide to just spend the money and hope you are rewarded so my plan is to also do a Multi-Lotto play tomorrow on both sides with the intent of just breaking even or cashing in.
Somebody spent a fortune on deep in-the-money puts today: $17.4 and 31.5 Million. Typically if you are buying DOTM puts, you are usually hedging your stock and you want big Delta working for you if you feel the short term is going to be very bad. These are HUGE buys for a relatively short time frame so if the stock gets squeezed that is a big bite out of their pocketbook, but if it gets crushed they saved their ass against otherwise total disaster.
======================================================================================================================== 2/6/16 - We have earnings coming on TSLA and this one could be a game changer for the company's stock price. If they miss, they could very well get cut in half like LNKD did so I am definitely fishing for some wild card Lotto Trades on this one.
There was some big Call bets placed on Friday so sentiment could be bullish but puts have more open interest at this time. If they beat estimates we could possibly get the reverse effect on TSLA so I will also have some wild card Lotto calls in place too.
Friday's action was SELL EVERYTHING and TSLA was no exception. The stock dropped down to the 200MA on the weekly charts and found some support so I am sure fund managers are deciding this weekend what they will do and technical buyers are probably nervous in the light of current market sentiment. This stock is loved but it trades at a ridiculous multiple and still loses money every quarter. People are buying on the "future" but with oil prices cheap, how long will the public be in love with the idea of electric cars if filling up a tank of gas is going to be cheap for a long time. HA HA HA that won't last for long because on Friday President Obama announced he was going to propose (a hidden tax yet again) a $10.00 per barrel levy on oil and (allegedly) use that money to invest into clean energy projects—Hmmm seems like a piker move to drive oil prices down some more because we know the oil companies don't give a crap about it, they will just raise gasoline prices to pay for it which means WE PAY for it!—anyway, should this BS hidden TAX get implemented, maybe TSLA could be a recipient of some of future subsidies and that may keep the Bulls interested if the earnings are positive.
This stock is already down over 24% from it's 12/31/15 high; and if the news is bad, along with more market selling pressure, it could easily cut TSLA in half and recast to a new multiple trading price. The number the bulls will be looking for is how many deliveries and/or orders are placed for the Model S ($70k starting price) and when the new Model X and 3 will be available; also what the completion date of the Gigafactory will be and of course the all important guidance. Their future projections are for 500k cars to be sold in the year 2020, but that is almost an eternity away when making buying decision on this stock today with the current market trend. I think that even if there is government support/subsidizing of the industry, this stock can easily get cut in half for this year if they miss bigger than expected—oh, and do not forget, completion is coming on strong with the major's and now we have autonomous cars being developed by GOOGL and AAPL and maybe TSLA ends up getting bought out by GOOGL or AAPL in the future.
With the crushing of LNKD you can bet investors are looking for the next one; and so are the Market Makers because I am sure even they got caught off guard on how bad LNKD was whacked and on Friday the stock could not even produce a bounce off the post earnings lows which caused me some pain because my White Whale calls never had a chance... :-(
So, will TSLA be the next hammer to drop or will it be a slight dump-n-pump? Either way, DOTM option prices are going to be more expensive than they were on LNKD, but the ROI will still be great should we get that beating.
Daily and Weekly charts show extreme bearish conditions; however, the stock did find some support on Friday at the 200MA. If we do get a bigger miss than anticipated along with lower guidance, then that should drive this stock down a lot more...maybe under $100.
The monthly chart gives us a lot of insight as to where the stock could be headed in the coming weeks and months.
Currently the $100 puts are trading at $1.16 and I expect them to be even higher on Monday because they were pumped up quite a bit on Friday (+233%) and that will most likely be a popular strike with investors if they are thinking like I am. So, my plan is to buy a Multi-Lotto play on both Puts and Calls, then a wild card Lotto trade on the puts because I expect a large move one way or the other and down is the path of least resistance.
The current option buys on Friday suggest this stock will be going higher than $195 before June 2016, but even that buyer could be wrong—$5.1 Million reasons wrong or an inside move by maybe...hmmm...Mr. Musk?
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11/2/15 - Strong day for the bulls as they load up ahead of earnings in anticipation the company will surprise and create a big move back to old highs. The charts strongly suggest this rally is more of a pump-n-dump but remember, we are dealing with a loved company and CEO so any positive news and the enthusiasm to buy is always strong. Bad news again and the fear will kick in and drive this stock right under $200. How do you play it when the IV (95.98%) is pumped up? You can either speculate and pick your spot or do credit spreads with capped downside and also upside. The puts were filled and now I have to adjust the call strike up; and will buy some tomorrow by the end of the day. Depending on the outcome of earnings, I will be selling some naked premium the next day in the direction of the trend.
Option Stats have the stock in a neutral position with investors:
A decent bet to the upside today with 500 contracts:
==================================================================================================================== 11/1/15 - Since my last comments, investors attempted to rally off that DOJI / SGB zone and then the stock was slammed just under the 200MA in one day taking out the SGB zone. If you were monitoring it, then you got a the benefit of a very nice short and now the stock is poise to make another bigger move if they disappoint at earnings time this week. Because of the volatility and love investors have for this stock you have to have calls in play but the bias is still to short it under the SGB's. IV is already pumped up to 94% and I expect that to increase all week so getting in on Monday should produce some appreciation on either side. Last quarter the stock fell over $24.00 and this time it could be even bigger in either direction. The market correction back in August drove TSLA to a low of $195 so there is likely some more buyers around there and definitely stops just under it.
Short interest very strong so a big beat or surprise and we get a nice pop on short covering.
Option stats show investors are pretty neutral
Big bets are spreads but I am watching this week to see if we get some big directional trades placed.
========================================================================================================================= 10/11/15 - Wow, the selling was NOT over in TSLA as the stock was still dumped into the end of trading week settling down to the bottom of the SGB zone back in August and closing the daily chart as a perfect DOJI. This means TSLA is about to make another directional move and I am sure the majority of investors are thinking that move be higher. After all, we are dealing with a love story stock and when they get beat down, all investors think is that it's now a bargain. I am sure there will be some news forthcoming from CEO Elon Musk and you know that talking heads are always ready to jump on AFTER the move to tell you how great they are/were at predicting it. All I know is that we can predict there will be a move and then we trade what the stock gives us. Since TSLA is currently is a very vulnerable spot, I am looking for a move over or under the SGB zone and with earnings way out to NOV I am sure capital will be looking to move into other names this week like AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, LVS before it goes into TSLA in bulk. My trades are going to be mainly credit spreads and some day trading if I see a solid Bull/Bear 180. Looking over daily chart, I see that TSLA has pulled back exactly 55% of that huge reversal bull elephant bar the week of August 28 and it must hold here to get a snap back rally to the upper SGB zone at $235 - $240. On the longer term quarterly charts, I see some potential for TSLA to fall under $200 if earnings are weak and the markets sell down and that is most likely where the big fund technicians are sitting with buy orders too.
The quarterly chart gives is some longer term insight as to what direction TSLA can move in the coming months and if earnings are weak next month, then I see the stock easily heading well under $200.
=========================================================================================================================================== 10/7/15 - What a nice beating down TSLA did the past two days locking in some massive gains for short sellers. Now that it has landed and closed directly on the 200MA there technical buyers should be nibbling here; however, the stock is now between two SGB zones and those were bottom events so if it can hook up to the electro-juice bar from here, we can get a nice bounce but if it cannot get the jolt it needs, well, it's going to be lights out for the short term and we see it fall right through the SGB at $224.00.
I sold my spreads and covered shares so now I am going to do some lotto call plays for this week and some Bear Call Spreads into Oct Wk5 but fishing for a higher strike and entry point in case we get that rally first. .
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10/5/15 - Since my last comments this stock did make the drop off that DOJI and Bearish engulfing candle and then we get the SGB exactly in the same spot as the last one. This time, it dropped all the way down to the older SGB zone so if you have been studying my SGB training, then you should have been making some great short trades in TSLA. Ok, so now we have another attempt to test the SGB zone and today the stock failed it giving us a short entry trigger. This stock is quite the wild card and with Musk always making comments and building his erector set life, the investing public has quite the fascination with him so this stock will get a lot of grace until the hard numbers come out on the new Model X sales next year. Shorting it is the bias for now, but I will keep some OTM calls in place just in case.
============================================================================================================================ 9/27/15 - A lot of interesting action last week with TSLA and now we have the perfect long/short signal to trade off of with that huge tailed DOJI.
=================================================================================================================== 9/20/15 - Since my last post TSLA found some buyers and never triggered my SGB short and instead triggered my long entry point but only for a short trade. Now we have to see if it can hold the 89MA and if it enters back into the SGB zone then I get on some shorts trades. I want to see it move back over $264 now before I do any aggressive longs.
============================================================================================================================= 9/14/15 - We are up against the top of a SGB zone and the 89MA. If the markets make a turn for the worse, I expect TSLA to fail here and test the 200MA. Positive FOMC markets and TSLA should be a runner up to all time highs over the next couple of months.
====================================================================================================================== 8/30/15 - We are up against multiple SGB zones so if TSLA pulls back under $245.00 I am going to put on some puts and other bearish strategies.
================================================================================================================== 8/17/15 - TSLA was upgraded by Morgan Stanley early this morning with a new price target set at $465.00 per share from $280 and the stock has shot up over $13.00 in pre-market. This upgrade seems a little fishy to me since TSLA put in a big SGB on Friday. I am looking for a pump-n-dump until TSLA can take out $265.00. To be sure, there will be plenty of volatility so if you cannot stomach it, then sell premium spread with more time.
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8/8/15 - The final outcome for TSLA post earnings was actually a positive day when you look at the post earnings lows and this gives us insight for pivot entry/exit plays going forward. If TSLA moves under $236 I will look to short and over $245 I will look to get long with caution and until TSLA can take out $265 I will not be aggressive on any long; however, I will be looking for Lotto Trade call opportunities because this stock is still a loved company, CEO and future growth favorite.
Looking over the Daily and Weekly charts we see TSLA is in a battle between SGB zones. The upper SGB on the daily chart is the sell zone that started way back on 2/14/14 and should be respected. That means for me, if TSLA cannot take out that SGB, I am sticking to my short bias.
Here is what happened when TSLA failed at the SGB zone above back in 2014.
Big option Activity on Friday indicating someone out there is gambling TSLA will get crushed or explode higher next week—is it one of my subscriber/students doing a Lotto Trade?
================================================================================================================= 8/5/15 - TSLA beats estimates but cannot hold initial gains in post trading and slips lower close the MMM. Part of the lack of enthusiasm was the announcement they expect to deliver 50,000 to 55,000 cars in 2015 vs. the previously expected 55,000 units. Other comments was how the strong dollar was affecting them too. If we have a down market tomorrow, the likely drop in TSLA is going to be the posted low in after hours at $245. Since the stock could not find any real buyers during the conference call, I will be watching pre market trading for a potential bounce and pounce White Whale 245 put trade and if we end up getting the drop then I hope to see a pop so I want to look at the 265 calls.
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8/4/15 - Tomorrow we have the big earnings announcement for the week with TSLA and PCLN and things are looking ready for TSLA to make a solid move up or down. I certainly do not want a repeat of FB but we have to be ready for the contingency too. Current weekly IV is 101% so there is some juicy premium to collect if you are selling spreads or naked positions, but naked is a bit of a gut check with this stock no matter what side you are on.
There are more bullish bets with some heavy concentration at 290 and 300 strikes on the calls and 235 & 240 on the puts
Not really big trades today and this one is a strangle with some extra time on the puts side so they are figuring for a pop and drop.
I see TSLA either blasting off from here to new $300+ all time highs or a nice drop tot he 200MA so there is where I am targeting my plays.
We did not get enough pull back the last couple of day to get those 290 calls on the cheap so now you have to decide to pay the IV or sit it out. There is not much of a Lotto Trade opportunity since we cannot get anything inside a 10% move for under $1.00 per contract, so, if I am going to trade long or short, I am going to buy more time.
The double abandoned baby doji is a very ominous pivot in this stock and makes for the perfect long stop and short entry point going forward.
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8/2/15 - This week we have earnings on TSLA and maybe we will get some MOVEMENT unlike the major dud FB turned out to be. The expected MMM is currently suggesting +/- $18.63 and TSLA is more than capable of hitting them number and higher/lower. The daily chart has the stock trading in between two SGB zones and I have outlined the SGB that was a top back 2/26/14 so for me, a move under $247.34 is a strong weekly short.
The company is geared up to release the Model X in early 2016 so this should keep the stock propped up even if the earnings are not a blowout. Current sales trends for the company have been as follows: 2012: 2,653 2013: 22,450 2014: 31,655 2015: 50,000+ estimated
The company believes it is on track to reach 500k units per year by 2020 once the Model 3 is released at a much lower price point.
My longer term plan is to start selling some longer term LEAPS Naked Puts after this earnings announcement if the stock performs well.
============================================================================================================= 7/13/15 - No love for TSLA when the markets fade. We had that nice breakout move over my T-1 Line but if you were watching the charts, that move was based on market events. The day before the breakout, TSLA put in a SGB and as you can see, it was sold and now the stock has broken down again putting in back to back SGB's. This is our pivot point going forward. The weekly chart shows us a bearish engulfing candle indicating a big change is in the works. Notice how this one is the BIGGEST one since the last one 14 weeks ago. Shorting this stock has not been a good bet, but we want to definitely keep fishing because when the big money gets out, the stock will make a HUGE drop in a very short time. So, for me, any move under $258 I am short bias with fishing calls and above $262 I am long bias with fishing puts.
======================================================================================================================== 6/28/15 - Wow, do you see the POWER of my T-Zones! TSLA squeeze right up to T-1 and is now ready to make the next measured move. I am looking for this stock to hold the red sell zone and those two DOJI's. I want to see if it can get over $274.55 and then I am looking for this stock to kick into high gear and attempt a run at $300. I think it will take some more uplifting news and a very positive earnings report though. I am speculating to the upside for now as long as this stock holds ground here.
============================================================================================================= 6/21/15 - As I predicted, we did get that measured move and it was, of course, to the upside in the face of a downside short SGB signal. TSLA is now poised to make a BIGGER measured move with two DOJI candles last week as we finished out June option trading. Earnings are still way out there and not sechduled to be released until 7/29/15 so we have plenty of time to position ourselves in front of some good trades. I am going to see how the stock trades this week and if it falls back tot he SGB I will make some trade decisions at that time. Now if we get some "news" related movement, then I will have to see which of my strategies I want to go with
=========================================================================================================== 6/15/15 - We have a SGB in play along with a very tall wick DOJI on the weekly chart indicating a measured move is coming and that move is biased to the down side. As you know by now, the SGB is a definite short signal, but not always accurate so you have to be prepared to trade around them especially on a hot stock like TSLA that can launch higher on any news. We are also in the June expiration week so there is sure to be some action on one of these high beta stocks this week.
================================================================================================================ 6/9/15 - This stock has been moving steadily higher since my last post and SGB zone. It is now testing the upper range where is sold down way back in 2/2014. That high was $265 and then the next week $260 so you can anticipate this stock will be testing those numbers again; and most likely keep right on going if there is any positive news released. If you look over the weekly chart, you can see back then there were back-to-back selling events that resulted in very large topping tails. This time the stock has been methodically moving higher into that range with out any large topping tails, so you can anticipate a continuation as long as it holds $255.00—ok, so now that I have laid out the bullish sentiment, bet the farm on the short side...lol. I have my short entry point set at $248 so I plan to fish for some puts if the stock fails $265.
============================================================================================================= 5/31/15 - A quiet week as TSLA enters the last big sell zone where is pulled back sharply. With news out that Musk's private spaceX company is going to get to bid on military contracts could lead to some enthusiastic buying this week in TSLA so a move over Friday's high is a good long signal to sell some BPS if you are not already in the current one.
======================================================================================================================================= 5/23/15 - TSLA is looking like it may want to take off again and so I am going to do some fishing on the $255 strike. If this stock pulls back and hold the last SGB zone, it's on for the upside.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5/17/15 - If you took the long side once TSLA moved over the SGB then you have enjoyed some good profits. We now have a perfect stop point for longs and Friday's action is looking very bullish. The stock has entered a RED zone of selling so I am looking for a first test of $255 then $260, but if news breaks momentum will kick in. When everything is looking UP, that is when you want to fish on puts while you are making money on the upside, because we can only speculate on how far a stock might rise, but we know for sure profits will be taken along the way.
============================================================================================================================ 5/10/15 - DUD trade on TSLA. The drop was not enough to pay off the puts and it was immediately bought up by investors. All of the action was in post market and they the stock launched higher at the open trading pretty much flat the whole day. This was nothing more than a complete money grab by MM on all the pumped up premium. This particular earnings round would have been a solid bet to sell naked strangles and collect premium. In fact, that is pretty much a good bet on all stocks over earnings with IV ranked better than 100%; however, that takes a good sized account and the profits are fixed unlike our massive winning Lotto Trades!. Just remember, we cannot get a multi-thousand ROI winner on every trade, so you have to do them all as an aggregate to the the HUGE results over time!
We have a very large SGB and the stock stopped DEAD ON the upper end of the candle on Friday. This is the perfect pivot point for us to trade off of so take your positions accordingly but if you do call options, be sure to buy MORE TIME. I am going with my SGB signal and fishing for some puts anticipating the stock will gap up and crap out.
=============================================================================================== 5/5/15 - TSLA had a decent up day for a Cinco de Mayo, but the overall markets has a sink-o-d'casho today. Is this the beginning of the cycle of "sell in May and go away?" Well, if TSLA disappoints tomorrow after the bell , we could be in for a HUGE drop and today we got a BIG SGB indicating that is what will happen. Now if today's selling is just a head fake, then I expect TSLA will take off higher on a strong report, but that has to be backed up by even stronger guidance. With the company recently announcing they are getting into consumer home battery development, it seems to me they are looking for other revenue streams to take up the slack on weak car sales and with Musk saying things like, "I might love batteries more than cars." you have to be on guard for a bad quarter. But maybe he is sandbagging with comments like that and we get a huge surprise. We have to be aware this company is on a path to the future and the CEO is very well liked and looked at as a modern day Edison, da Vinci and of course next generation Nikola Tesla so any positive news will be met with buyers and for us as traders, well, we take both sides of the action and hope to get a huge move to cash in on!$!—my bias is to the downside with those SGB's in play.
Weekly IV%
Expected MMM Move:
Big Trades:
Bias to calls with investors
====================================================================================================== 4/19/15 - Time for TSLA to make a move and it can be up or down from here. The history of this stock is to pop and drop, so any moves that do not take out $214 and I am looking for short entries at first. The markets seem to be never coming down so a rising tide raises all ships and TSLA is one of the future leaders in the minds of investors. A move back under the longer term SGB zone at $202 and I get more aggressive on shorting with initial targets at $180.00.
===================================================================================================================== 4/12/15 - Well, we had a short lived SGB short signal as I suspected and the stock gapped up the next day on more news. You know this stock is a hard one to short because of all the future compelling news, so you are better off to just fish for lower entry prices on long plays until earnings come and then we fish for puts because if they miss again, I think the story has been told and profit taking will start an avalanche effect and drive this stock down the rest of the year. Of course this is a story stock, so any kind of news will continually have a postive effect and that is why I am cautious on size for the short plays for now.
========================================================================================================================================== 4/4/15 - SGB short signal is still on so start or keep fishing for puts, BCS or shares on Monday if the stock gaps higher and falls back UNDER the 21MA on the daily chart or stays under the 8MA on the weekly chart. There is always the high probability that news from Musk, analysts or industry will get this stock heated up, but the trend is definitely DOWN for now so keep the short bias in place and manage your trades. When I posted the last chart there was a clear SGB from the open; however, it turned into a red candle because the stock closed lower than the previous day. This can be interpreted as a potential false SGB since it day did not result in an actual SGB so we have to be a little cautious with size for now.
========================================================================================================= 3/31/15 - Today TSLA put in a SGB for month end and now we have a short entry candidate. I am going for more puts and bearish plays. Once the stock move under the SGB I will add more Bear Call Spreads as I look for the stock to fall to $175 or lower. The last two times the stock took a multi-week tumble, it dropped over $80 bucks so we can easily see it drop $50 points if momentum and panic set in.
3/30/15 - Correct about the drop, early to the punch, but kicked in some HUGE LOTTO PROFITS once the stock failed the SGB zone with a perfect abandoned baby DOJI candle pattern. Today's rally had the stock doing the typical short covering rebound, but now this stock is in decline mode, so rallies are shorts for now. If we get a move anywhere close to $195, then I will get some more short plays on.
================================================================================================================== 3/22/15 - A wee bit frustrating for me Friday when TSLA failed to drop back under $195. I was holding quite a number of those 190 puts and to say the least, it was not a good day of trading for me. I still have a Bear Call Spread in play and some 195 puts. When the stock tested and fell back under the SGB zone, I was getting very excited about the potential for a big drop; however, I am sure the Market Makers knew full well millions of investors were lining up to short so they squeezed them out by Friday. I suspect the stock will make a move lower, and I would prefer a gap up and crap out so I can get a cheaper entry point on some puts this week. Until the stock closes over $205, I am still looking for bearish plays.
==================================================================================================================== 3/19/15 - CEO Tweets and news conferences are NOT holding up this stock. TSLA moved right back up to the SGB zone and REVERSED today. The shorts are on and I am looking for the stock to take out the major support at $190. If it manages to move back up then I will go long over $201. It is hard to trade this stock in any direction because news announcements always seem to hit at inopportune times so you have to have tolerance to draw down—that is why you must fish around for better entry points.
================================================================================================================ 3/16/15 - Almost had TSLA under the ropes and today CEO Musk puts out tweets to spark a short covering rally in my opinion. Yes, you know he watches AND TRADES his stock so you have to be aware there will be some nudging at major pivot points. If today's rally fails, this stock is going to take a big hit. We need a capitulation day on the selling side before TSLA can resume its rise back to prominence. With two missed earnings quarters, oil getting much cheaper and China layoffs, this stock is going to be on the skids until it can be jolted back to life. I am sure there will be lots of volatility so you just have to FISH for better entry prices than I post and take profits continually because the moves are controlled and the spreads are wide. If the short covering has legs this week, I expect a test of the SGB zone above and there is where I will be looking for some more SHORT opportunities.
======================================================================================================================================= 3/10/15 - Those Bull Elephant bars turned into a pile of crapola...lol. News always affects everything, especially this loved stock. Last week it was announced they would be delaying their gigafactory build and they were going to lay off 30 percent of their China workforce due to lack of sales. This did not bode well for longs and the stock was quickly reversed. Once it fell back into the SGB zone, I shorted it and now its sitting on a major psychological support level at $190. I have been trading it the past couple of days and now I am looking for my next short entries and then fishing for rebound longs. The future is not so bright at the moment, and once investors realize the big money has left the room, this stock will plummet. I have short term price target at $171.21 and a longer term target short price at $149.48 if things get really ugly. We also have the markets about to give up the bull ghost so if that materializes, then get ready for a lot of downside trading opportunities. I am fishing and buy short trades at first; then I want to fish for a few calls further into the future looking for a first bounce at $170.
=============================================================================================================== 2/22/15 - Dual Bull Elephant bars on the daily has TSLA looking ready to go higher; however, it still has a lot of overhead resistance at $220. Since we had that failed SGB at $200, the next one to take out is at $230, so we have a good trading range to pick our entry/exit points. I think this recent upside move is more short covering than strong buying, but this stock has that love fest thing going for it which makes it difficult to short. The company will release the new Model X in 2016, so that will definitely keep buying pressure on this stock all year and we should be looking at pull backs as opportunities to get long for now.
================================================================================================================== 2/11/15 - As I predicted, the stock dropped and popped back up giving us a nice White Whale trade if you were there to fish for it, but you had to take profits. I was hoping for a little more retracement, but the stock could not get over my T2 so that is BEARISH to me.
Here was my White Whale Trade
Since the stock rallied in the morning session, it had not follow through we should start to see the it slide lower for a few weeks to months. Of course there can always be a news story to disrupt things, but the bias for now is down, so selling Bear Call Spreads is a good bet. As for tomorrow (Friday the 13th) , we could still see some White Whale action, so I will fish again. If the stock does no pop and drop, then I will look to add more puts on a move under $200. I will also be looking to add some more Bear Call Spreads with March expiration too.
=================================================================================================================== 2/11/15 - TSLA missed estimates posted a $108 million quarterly loss. Will they rebound after the selling in after hours? I think the stock will as long as it holds above $198. The inside info we need to look at is the soaring revenue. The company reported a 56% jump to $956.7 million and 59% to $3.2 billion for the years. They also missed on delivered vehicles; however, they estimate 55k Model S to be delivered this year, so this will initially scare off short term investors, but if you are a long term buyer, then the future looks bright for the company. As they get the Gigafactory on line, that will only increase the bottom line in the longer horizon. For now, we will see some volatility tomorrow and into next week, so I am looking for a White Whale trade tomorrow. The consensus on TV today is the stock will be heading lower, so watch out for the drop and pop and if that happens, I expect the shorts to cover ALL DAY. As for the current Lotto plays, we definitely will not see any profits on the call side, and we need to see more selling in the pre-market to get those 195 puts to kick in so if you get profits at the open, take some or all off the table. Remember, you cannot go broke taking profits and there is ALWAYS another HUGE lotto trade coming so build contract size with profits.
============================================================================================================================= /10/15: Earnings are tomorrow after the bell and this time we could see some good moves with TSLA. There are some interesting things to take notice of so lets dig into the charts and see what could be the possibilities. The first thing I want to point out is the MMM is currently set at +/- $16.51 and IV is pretty high at 97% on the weekly options.
TSLA has not been a big post earnings mover for the last two quarters and this time could be a bigger one. The 5/14 quarter the stock moved $23 down the next day, and since we are at the beginning of the year, we may just get a double of the MMM if they surprise and/or really disappoint. May 2014 Jul 2014 Nov 2014
Notable option volume yesterday:
Typically a Buy Write is when someone buys long shares and sells a covered call. Whoever put on this trade is looking for some premium collection and not necessarily looking to get called out. Either way, they placed around a $21 Million dollar bet with a $710k rent check, so it's hard to gauge where their motivation lies, but with that much money involved, you have to believe it was a huge fund or maybe TSLA themselves placing that order. The other trade, in my estimation, is a very deep OTM Leap play and I have to assume they are "selling" naked puts. Both of these plays can be hypothesized as BULLISH bets and you should take that into consideration. There are 27k outstanding contracts in puts and 17k in calls which means if TSLA surprises, we get a pretty good chance of a strong multi-day rally. Of course on a miss, we could see double the MMM down. Short interest is currently at 25 Million shares and takes 4.6 days to cover, so this give us a good setup for a big squeeze if things go good for earnings. The charts have a double pattern going on right now so that adds more to a fire for both the Bears and Bulls. First we get the big sell off and bounce with a "W" pattern (typically bullish) and now we have a "M" pattern forming (typically bearish) so you have a real head scratcher here as to what the final outcome will be. My short term bias has been bearish and long term I am bullish, so over earnings I have been leaning to the put side; however, I have had difficulty trading TSLA to the short side—it is always tough shorting popular stocks, but when they fall, they fall hard. If you look at the daily chart below, you can see TSLA put in a very big SGB back in Oct 2014 that failed at first and took a couple of months before it was confirmed. Once the stock rallied back, it stopped EXACTLY at the low of the SGB and sold down again putting in a LOWER LOW. Now the current rebound has stopped with a LOWER HIGH under the SGB zone which, again, is a bearish setup. So, we have heavy selling for months now, a SGB that has been tested and proved, and two strong trading patterns, are you as confused right about now as me?...lol When everything looks strong to one side, you should consider trading the opposite because the heard mentality is mostly WRONG about BOTH directions. The challenge is how much capital do you put into a single trade? My advice is NEVER LOAD THE BOAT on any single trade idea because there is ALWAYS another trade opportunity coming!!! When stocks are in this type of flux, I prefer to trade straddles/strangles and sell premium spreads with longer time frames; and then I can speculate with a few OTM weekly options with less stress knowing I have time on my side for the stock to make a bigger move.
The Monthly chart shows us the stock has been FAILING for 6 months and is currently finding support at T2. A failure of this key level ($200) and I predict TSLA is a short down to T3. My upside prediction is a test of the two Doji's at $240 which could happen this week..
==================================================================================================================== 11/22/14: The stock was dumped on Friday and the candle is a very bearish engulfing one. Until TSLA takes out the previous weeks Bull Elephant bar, it can still reverse but that is not likely going to be the case. I am flat for now because I have too many positions to manage and keep track of. If you short this stock, stick to my T-Levels for entry and exit points.
============================================================================================================= 11/20/14: Attempted to rally to T2 but it was dumped and now back testing T3. The drop is not enough to get the BCS any profits so I will roll out to Dec once I see how the stock trades tomorrow. Maybe the bears were just on a food gathering break and are not ready to hibernate, they are ready to EAT!
================================================================================================================= 11/15/14: Bears must be heading into hibernation? The SGB's were ignored and TSLA took off this week with two powerful days of advancement. I am still suspect on this higher move, but you cannot find the trend so my plan is to fish for a Bear Call Spread at T2 and I will get some long calls if the stock falls back and HOLDS on a close above $250 or the 89MA on the daily chart. I was filled on both BCS and I have the BPS in play so I am hedged for the time being and plan to take profits on the BPS if TSLA advances next week to T2.
================================================================================================================ 11/9/14: Now that earnings season is over, investors will be looking for value and growth stocks and TSLA is more a growth stock; however, it is over valued so if the SGB's from last week hold up, I will move to bearish strategies until the stock is trading back over $250.00.
========================================================================================================= 11/5/14: TSLA beats estimates, and stock takes off in post trading. Initially, the volatility was all over the place swinging around up to $20 at a times. If you were long in after hours, you had a heck of a time sticking to your position. I know, because I waited for the initial pull back and then jumped in only to have my patience tested with immediate draw downs over $1k on 200 shares before the stock finally found a footing and moved higher. Once the conference call started, Investors found confidence and kept on pushing the stock higher closing close the the after hours highs. Hopefully things will hold up tomorrow but the earnings report was not a total success. The company did lower guidance on the expected car deliveries of 35,000 and said they plan to deliver 33,000 cars due to constraints of hardware but demand is still there. Still, that is an impressive number and may entice investors to keep a vigilant candle of speculation going. We will see how the 280 Calls play out and this time, we have a little more time on our side. The Bull Put Spared will most likely need to be rolled out later in the month. I plan to do some WW fishing tomorrow and Friday. This stock can easily be considered way over valued and who could argue with that? I think the Cinderella story is turning the page with investors and the stock will most likely find its way back down to a reasonable multiple in the future. As that happens, TSLA will give us plenty of long term opportunities to make profits, so we just keep fishing around pivot points and SGB's going forward.
============================================================================================== 11/4/14: Earnings are tomorrow and the charts say TSLA is going DOWN. The tweet from CEO Musk has played out and we are looking at two DOJI SGB's which means a big move is about to happen. The path of least resistance is down, but TSLA has a proven track record of squeezing the crap out of shorts. I am still looking to overweight short side action but I will definitely have some Bull Put Spreads in place just in case. The expected MMM is currently at +/- 19.05 and weekly IV is a whopping 114%. Unusual option activity is a 1,000 contract spread:
Short interest is 22M shares with 2.9 days to cover. Upside moves can go up to 2x MMM which could put TSLA potentially over T2 or under T4.
============================================================================================================= 10/29/14: Earnings are next week on Wednesday and they should be a mover for the stock in light of recent events. I do think some of the steam has been taken out of the shorts sails since the Musk tweet, so it's going to take a big surprise to get this stock moving in a bigger way. Currently the MMM expected move is $20 but that will definitely change in the next couple of days. Aside from any other news prior to earnings, I think the 89MA may have the breaks on for TSLA. If the stock does not make a bigger move higher tomorrow, than it did on Friday, we may just be able to get some cheaper lotto calls/puts on. If they do not surprise, I think the selling will continue so we want to look for longer term puts at earnings.
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============================================================================================================= 10/29/14: TSLA was beginning to melt down and then a tweet from CEO Elon Musk cause quite the short covering spike that was sold off today. This could be just a little profit taking due to the Fed announcment so we need to see how the stock plays out the rest of the week. Above the SGB it's a cautious long and below a decided short.
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10/21/14: After hours Daimler announced they are SELLING their 4% stake in TSLA. The stock initially dropped sharply and quickly recovered but once the news filters out I suspect investors will join and start to take profits. We know this is a high probability because we have a BIG SGB short signal. So, if the stock moves back into the SGB zone get your shorts ON!
====================================================================================================================== 10/19/14: With earnings not coming until 11/4/14, TSLA is vulnerable to the SGB short signal, but with the 200MA and T4 being tested, it may be a short lived drop. The likely target if this happens would be at the 55MA on the weekly chart around $205.00. If you want to speculate this SGB will produce a short, then buy the Oct4 220 puts to assure you have the best probability of being ITM if that price target hits.
========================================================================================================== 10/12/14: We have a nice profit on the Lotto Play so far. Now that the stock confirmed the SGB and with that huge gap down on Friday, TSLA is technically damaged goods and very vulnerable to testing the 200 MA on the daily chart.
======================================================================================================= 10/5/14: Testing the SGB zones and about to get filled on my Lotto Puts. I am still fishing for the Bear Call Spread, but now that the stock bounced off the 89MA and is trading above the 55MA on the daily chart, we still have the potential for a continuation to the upside; however, until that huge Bear Elephant bar is take out, I will maintain my bearish stance on TSLA.
========================================================================================================== 9/28/14: TSLA is looking ready to take another dip lower, but that is usually the time you want to get long. Well, for me, any move higher is just a better short entry point so until TSLA take out my double SGB zones on the daily chart, my bias will remain bearish.
============================================================================================================= 9/23/14: Nice gap down on Monday that was tested today so this gives us the perfect short entry point. If TSLA fails the 55 MA and heads back under it then I will get more shorts on with an initial target at the 89MA. If the recent selling in the markets continue, TSLA is going down. With that huge Bear elephant bar on the daily, any rallies are short opportunities until TSLA takes it out. I have been fishing for a rebound to get a short play on, but I needed TSLA to rebound higher to get my price on the 250's so I am still going to fish; however, if TSLA make a break lower, then I will jump on a couple puts under the 55MA.
==================================================================================================== 9/21/14: Trading back under the SGB zone could prove to be the turning point for the Bears. The likely target is T3 and then the 89MA; however, a move back over the SGB's and I get aggressively long. Took profits on some trades, took losses on Lotto Trades this round.
============================================================================================================================== 9/19/14: Trading over the SGB zone so long plays until it trades back under $260 then short plays. This stock jumps around a lot so you have to fish for better entry points and stomach the volatility.
=================================================================================================== 9/13/14: Still fishing for my next entry point as I manage my current positions. TSLA has been consolidating for the past two weeks and the pattern is a classic Flag/Pennant which is typically bullish, so any positive news and up we go but I am hoping for a dip so I can get my fishing trades filled. If the stock makes a move over $282.50 then I will jump in and adjust my some of my Bull Put Spread entry points. If you want to fish for an upside surprise Lotto trade, then go with the $297.50 strike because this stick will make a move for $300 once my T1 line is taken out. If the stock moves lower on Monday, then I will lower my strike at the same move the stock makes.
===================================================================================================== 9/9/14: Slipping lower today and I am suspecting it will test the 21MA / SGB zone in the coming days. This stock is bullish with lots of future compelling news, so initial dips will be bought up by investors looking for a discount entry point. I moved up the strike month on my 270 Calls
====================================================================================================================== 9/7/14: What goes up must come down, but by the comments of the companies own CEO? Once again, Elon Musk makes comments that he thinks the stocks price is way too high if you are a shot term trader, but a value if you are a long term trader. The last time he made comments like that on CNBC back on Aug 22, 2013, the stock actually when higher! This time, the news gave me a very good day trade with puts; and I am just itching to get into some more bearish plays on any rebound that does not take out $290! If we do not get a rebound on Monday, then the most likely drop will be the last SGB's around $260.00. I plan to try a butterfly spread on the $260 strike. I am sure investors will view this as an opportunity to get in at a discount, so watch or try entries around the 89MA or T3 if the stock really starts to take a turn for the worse. Looking over the charts for T-Levels I have calculated them based on the Daily chart first and then the monthly chart.
=================================================================================================================== 8/30/14: Big news on a deal with China and TSLA blasts off! I expect this stock to make it's way to $300 if the markets also blast off in September. Today's news was exciting, but investors took profits when the stock hit $272 indicating big money was not willing to commit....just yet. This is a typical scenario for TSLA, so we need to look for the next opportunity to get on the rocket ride with Musk and company. If you want to buy in, just pick up 1 entry and fish for lower prices. Sell Bull Put Spreads at $260 or higher. Since this stock is in momentum phase, you can sell DOTM Bull Put Spreads no more than 5% above current price and do a month of time to make sure you increase odds of getting there.
====================================================================================================================== 8/27/14: Every news story about Musk lifts TSLA higher and higher weather its good, bad or indifferent! The stock has now powered through the SGB's yesterday, so a continued close above is a long and below is a short. Big upside price target and upgrades will have investors chomping at the bit to buy any and all dips so be careful on shorts. Better to just sell premium spreads with defined risk and speculate with OTM Lotto calls and puts. I moved up my Sep put strike and will continue to fish for lower entry points. You have to let TSLA come to you vs. jumping in because the Market Makers will gladly TAKE your money.
======================================================================================================================= 8/24/14: A little support Friday but if TSLA slips under $255 then I am going to put on some short positions with a couple OTM lotto calls in play.
==================================================================================================================== 8/21/14: LOL, that "higher" move I was looking for was nothing more than an opportunity to get SHORT and that is exactly what investors did. Now that TSLA is trading UNDER the recent SGB's it dead stopped today on the old SGB zone that took it down from $256.00 to 188.00. I do not think that will happen again, but you just never know so we trade what the stock gives us and make our profits along the way. With the stock closing under my T4, I am looking for T3 to be the likely low side target. Now we know TSLA is a much loved stock with massive upside potential. The future compelling news is extremely strong and that will keep optimistic investors chomping at the bit to buy any and all dips. The first short term target will be the 21MA on the daily chart and/or the 8MA on the weekly chart. If TSLA does manage a move back over T4, then I am looking for long plays over $260.00. I have been fishing for the 250 puts, but it only came down to $5.15 so I have not gotten filled yet.
============================================================================================================== 8/17/14: Poised to make a measured move and most likely that will be higher based on momentum and future compelling news. Still, we have to be ready to short as we KNOW the SGB's are excellent short signals. My play is to cash in on the Bull Put spreads and straddle, and if TSLA does rally up to around $272.00 then I will put on some Bear Call Spreads. As for puts, I want to carry some monthly OTM puts above the 21 MA and fish for some puts just under the 8MA on weekly options once I see how the stock reacts in the next couple of day. Barring any bad news or big market wide sell off, I think TSLA investors want to see this stock race past $300. An interesting observation is TSLA Market Makers currently do not offer any October options. Big options contract activity:
=========================================================================================================== 8/14/14: Ah yes, we get the infamous SGB's heading into expiration and now it's decision time. We have old SGB zones that proved to be strong short signals and now we have two more back to back SGB's above that old zone which is the pivot point for me. This stock is hot, loved, and the future is extremely promising for TSLA. Picking spots is the hard part of trading but with options, you have the opportunity to pick both directions. The only thing is, you need the stock to move far enough to cover the losing side and TSLA certainly can do that. The other way to play is sell premium spreads and define your risk. I plan on testing these SGB with some weekly options on both sides. I am going to fish for some Sep puts if TSLA breaks to the higher side.
=============================================================================================================================== 8/12/14: Looking like higher prices are on deck now that TSLA moved back over T4 and the SGB zone. With today's rally off T4 this afternoon, I was forced to cover my puts and now it appears the stock will be heading higher tomorrow. There is the last SGB zone back at the previous all time highs that proved to be the top, so we have to consider it could be that way again; however, there have been upgrades and price targets to $360 plus they did beat earnings by a wide margin too. In addition to that, there was some harsh reviews from Consumer Reports about mechanical problems, manufacturing defects etc. and that could not bring the stock down as investors shrugged it off and the shorts (me being one of them) were forced to cover. Now that could be considered very bullish; and with August expiration in two more days, we should see some volatility for sure. I plan on buying some calls over $265 and if the stock fails the SGB zone I will will get aggressive on puts.
==================================================================================================================== 8/10/14: No fills on the 250 calls so I cancelled the trade. I was filled on the Bull Put Spread and with Friday's sharp pull back, not so confident TSLA will make a move back over $255 this week. As I suspected, that "upgrade" was a sucker punch and TSLA was met will strong selling (profit taking) on Friday. I am looking for a pull back down to the 8MA on the daily chart before I get in on some long plays again, but if the stock does make a play for higher ground this week, then I will put on some more Bullish spreads.
========================================================================================================== 8/6/14: Investors, turn on your engines! TSLA is on the move and a new all time high is definitely the next finish line. I am not so sure it will get there by Friday, but anything can and has happened trading this stock. There was an upgrade today with a price target of $316 which is an odd number to me, so I am always leery when stocks get "upgrades" a week AFTER earnings reports. I am bullish on this stock, so I will put on some longer term bullish plays just in case today was a sucker punch rally and we get a profit taking pull back that WILL be bought by investors.
=========================================================================================================== 8/5/14: Looking for TSLA to move up to my T4 or at least $250 to be hit over the next week or two so long as we do not see a SGB.
========================================================================================================= 8/4/14: A little bit of oomph to the share price but not enough to make the trades any profits this round; however, the Strangle and Bull Put Spreads were a 100% success! We still have the Aug positions so we will see what the stock brings us this week.
========================================================================================================================== 7/31/14: TSLA beats but the earnings outlook for the current period fell short and the stock was left for dead in after hours ending the day a little lower than the close. Initially the stock was attempting to rally higher, but sellers were just waiting to exit and stopped the action. In pre-market its looking like the selling may continue today unless the employment report saves the day and we get a market wide rally. Of course all the potential was overshadowed by the DOW getting crushed today, so we need a catalyst to get things back on the upside track. As this company moves forward, they are making extensive capital investments in infrastructure and that is what is lagging the upside action. There were upgrades with price targets to $275, so any dips to $200 will most likely be bought. We should get a nice profit on the strangle as the IV is collapsed at the open, but the calls will be a bust. If the selling does kick in tomorrow, the puts should have profits. I am going to fish for a call WW trade on the AugWk1 230 Calls.
================================================================================================ 7/30/14: Tomorrow is the big day for TSLA and whatever the outcome get ready for some action on Friday! Expected MMM is higher now at +/- 17.04 and the IV on the weekly options is a whipping 126% so selling spreads outside the MMM is a good bet. I got a better entry on the calls at the open, but the puts did not move down enough even though TSLA moved up, so so that indicates to me the stock has a higher probability of moving a lot lower if they miss.
Big bests placed on both sides as spread trades:
===================================================================================================== 7/29/14: Earnings are Thursday and I am hoping for a surprise beat or miss to make this stock move more than the MMM move of +/- 15.54 There is a strong short interest so if they surprise we could definitely see TSLA double the MMM move. Things have been very quite on the news front so that could add fuel to the fire (no pun intended) and get TESLA burning up the road of profits for us. My plan is to speculate on the calls and buy some protective ATM puts. If they miss and or disappoint with guidance it's an easy drop to $200 and move lower too. IV is at 100% which give us a lot of premium selling opportunities; however, I have been stung several times on TSLA so I am not doing any large size on spreads. Since IV is so high I am definitely fishing for lower entry points on the posted positions and will decide on Thursday what I will just buck up and buy.
Moderate contract buys today:
=================================================================================================== 7/28/14: Filled on the Bull Put Spread on a better price than posted! ==================================================================================================== 7/27/14: Successful Bull Put Spread and now time to sell another one as TSLA looks ready to push higher as earnings approach.
================================================================================================================ 7/20/14: Second test of the 89MA held, and if the markets rally off strong earnings reports this week, TSLA is poised to make some moves back to the SGB zone at $230.00. IF the stock falls back to the 89MA I will do some Bear Call Spreads.
======================================================================================== 7/14/14: TSLA is back in the news again and the stock is on the move. I am looking for a pull back so I can get a Bull Put Spread on.
============================================================================================================= 6/29/14: I cannot seem to get a handle on trading TSLA right now so I am flat and will wait until we get closer to earnings. ==================================================================================================================== 6/24/14: TSLA is losing some momentum today but until it takes out the SGB it is still a good candidate to keep moving higher. I just do not want to aggressive short this stock as I have been burned too many times in the past year. I am sure I will have my day on the short side, but when a stock is loved, you just have to fish for long plays on dips. As long as TSLA has the moving averages in upward momentum I look for long plays on dips and quick short trades on spikes or wait a couple of days after a news event to get some inflated profit taking. I am still fishing for the extreme dip so I can get a cheap price on long calls.
================================================================================================================= 6/19/14: As I suspected, it was a short squeeze off the news and investors hit the sell button today. I jumped off my Jul calls locking up a nice profit, and now I am fishing for some more once TSLA makes a nice 5% pull back in the next couple of trading days. I certainly hope it's tomorrow because I jumped on some some Lotto 220 puts today because I am not confident TSLA will get down low enough to make my 195 puts any profits. After hours the stock is lower so you may not be able to get in on the 220's at the open so DO NOT CHASE. You may want to fish for some Jun Wk 4 210 Puts because if the selling continues market wide into next week, TSLA is a very high probability trade for a nice bout of profit taking.
==================================================================================================================== 6/16/14: Got news? Get squeezed is the theme for TSLA. Today they announced the new SUV and it looks AWESOME. Oh, and Musk is giving away his patents so the world car manufacturers can increase electric car production? What? Free?? Hmm, either he is the ultimate philanthropist or maybe his technology will have ZERO value as the big automakers come on line to compete. In the sales world, we say, if you can't change it...feature it! Whatever the motive, you just have to give a hearty kudos's to Mr. Musk! However, at the end of the trading day, you have to look at fundamental and valuation to consider an investment in this stock and with the company trading over 150 times earnings, how can you justify higher prices? LOL, you don't when a stock is rising on popularity—JUST GET IN and hope the ride is not over yet. There are analysts touting $400 price targets and beyond; and as the stock continues to amaze the technical heads, the speculators like us just get in to make the FAST MONEY! My fishing order on the 195 puts was filled at the end of the day but I do not expect them to profit tomorrow because TSLA tends to run 2 - 3 days off news like this. The bear call spread did not get filled but I jumped on long calls instead. If you did not get in on the action, DO NOT CHASE. This is a SHORT SQUEEZE today and you may be able to get in at a much better price later in the week. TSLA is till in a SGB zone so it must hold over $220 to keep the bullish pressure on. Upside potential would be $255, but I am not so convinced today's action will be enough to carry the stock that high and it's likely we get a sharp pull back Wed/Thur ahead of June expiration. Many times, big money runs a stock like this sharply higher to sucker in everyone and then cancels the bids and lets it drop like a rock back to major support.
If you had your finger on the trigger this morning when the news broke, then you could have broke the bank with OTM calls...WOW
The sweet spot was the 225 Calls
============================================================================================================= 6/13/14: Got the pull back to the 21MA but the options only dropped to $5.06 low and I was not filled nor am I willing to pay up for it. We now have two SGB's so the speculation is on the put side but do not be 100% committed because this stock has massive investor love and any good news will definitely lift it higher, so I plan to have some Calls on tap 10% OTM. I am going to fish for some Jun 14 195 Puts on Monday.
Here is a risk/reward spread to consider for the upside surprise:
================================================================================================= 6/3/14: Getting some pull back as I expected, but not as much as I would like so I can get a really cheap entry price on the July 210 Calls. I am still fishing so we will see how thing progress this week. I am upping my entry target to $4.00 or the 21MA depending on how the stock and markets are reacting when that level is reached.
========================================================================================================== 5/31/14 11:00 PM: Summer is about to begin and TSLA could be a stock that gets some movement. I have heard that the company is in the works to get relaxed regulatory standards in certain state that will allow them to expand sales. If this happens, it can be the beginning a real game changer and that type of news should bring buyers of the stock in droves. Since TSLA has rallied steadily for the month of may, it certainly is subject to profit taking so I am going to go with a straddle just in case that does happens. I have been watching this stock for a while now and it's one of the best performers this year. If you bought shares on Jan 2, 2014 you are currently up an impressive 38%! For me, as long as TSLA holds over 34%, I am long biased and a drop back to 21% (about $180) I am a buyer. Looking over the daily chart, there are quite a bit of SGB's in play between $190.00 - $225.00 so that can keep upside pressure on the stock until a big news event changes things. This weeks candle patterns are suggesting TSLA is about to slip lower, but if the news gets released that I am anticipating, shorts will cover rapidly and drive this stock price up sharply. Based on the chart, I am anticipating an initial pull back so I will be fishing for a much lower entry on the Jun 215 Calls.
============================================================================================================ 5/8/14 11:00 PM: Caught another White Whale!! I took profits this morning and by the end of the day, TSLA rolled over and dropped even lower. If you are sill in you may very well pick up some HUGE gains tomorrow. I plan on doing some more fishing in the morning now that TSLA has NO buyer interest after today's reversal. The 170 puts are currently trading at $0.50 so if we do get a continuation tomorrow, I am looking for those to build profits too. The OTM Bull Call Spread will expire worthless as TSLA will never make it above $250. I Sold the Puts on my straddle for a fat profit and I have the calls long, but since TSLA failed to climb higher, those will also expire worthless; however, the puts more than paid for them.
Here is a chart of the 175 Puts. It's amazing that I was filled at the open well below the ask but that is what happens when you are a liquidity provider and somebody is market ordered stopped out. The computer just hunts for the first available buyer and matches you up.
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5/7/14 11:00 PM: Tesla Loses $49.8. Million; Higher Costs Are Blamed
Stock sold off in after hours and
looks like it will continue to slide tomorrow. What we want is
an initial pop and then drop so we can catch a White Whale trade
opportunity The 200MA on the daily chart is the likely target tomorrow on a continuation, but that could be accelerated by market support so get ready for some volatility. Investors really like this company and there will be plenty of bargain shopper at major MA's and/or notable price points such at $150.
5/7/14 10:52 AM: TSLA is being dumped ahead of today's earnings release. I added some OTM Lotto Puts for the upset and if they miss, we could get a very strong drop tomorrow. I will be looking for a White Whale play tomorrow as well.
====================================================================================================== 5/5/14 - So far investors are hitting the long button on TSLA but we have to be aware of the SGB zone above us which will most likely be the stopping point by earnings if this stock cotinues to climb higher. I put on a 215 Straddle today and plan on adding some Lotto Puts and Calls on earnings day before the close.
=============================================================================================================== 5/4/14 - This week is a big earnings release for TSLA and we need to be ready to catch some big profits! Current MMM has TSLA at +/- $20.29 and of course the options are priced with a ton of implied volatile. In fact, the IV is currently at 112.83% for this week alone.
With this much juice, the ATM calls are currently at $12.25. The puts are priced oat $11.35 with a clear bias to the long side, we have an opportunity to make some big bucks if they disappoint again. So, the strategy for me is to put on a straddle after the first 15 minutes of trading tomorrow. I am looking to get filled around a $20 debit. Since the bias is heavily waited to the call side, I will be looking for calls at the expected move. The best scenario is an initial drop tomorrow so we can get a cheaper entry price. Just remember to fish for better pricing because the IV is stacked against you. ===================================================================================================================== 4/10/14 - We are now in my SGB zones with downside support at $192 or the 89MA on the daily chart. I suspect TSLA will test $200 tomorrow for sure and it it can hold over that by the end of trading, then we will see a rally next week if the markets also turn up again. I am looking for my next entry points over the weekend but if you want to jump in with a small test position, I would go with a BPS if TSLA gets under $200 tomorrow.
======================================================================================================= 4/6/14 - Entering the SGB zones and with continued selling in the broad markets we should see TSLA test under $200, so any possible attempt at a retracement back to the SGB at $222 - $225 and I get some aggressive shorts on.
======================================================================================================================= 3/30/14 - I am expecting a rally this week so I sold some ITM Bull Put Spreads with minimal downside; however, TSLA must move higher into my strikes to make a profit. With TSLA closing into the last SGB zone the resulted in a very large gap move higher last time we have to be cautious here. Friday's close resulted in a SGB Doji and this will be a test of will for the Bulls and salivating opportunity for the Bears—this makes for a volatile movement any day now. I like the Bulls more than the Bears point of view, but that does not mean I am right. In fact, I am usually wrong more than I am ever right, it's just the way we handle things when we are wrong that makes us a professional vs. novice trader. When option trading, you have to be able to make decisions and counter moves to survive the dynamics of unforeseen changes, unexpected news events and the two most important factors a trader must conquer: FEAR and GREED! One of the ways to mitigate all of these factors is limiting risk with spreads vs. directional trading. With TSLA in a heavy selling mode, the shorts have picked up momentum and now stand at 33.92% or 28.6 million shares estimated to take 3.4 days to cover. This is what we look for because any positive news will cause those investors who are short to cover rapidly driving pirce higher in a very quick timeframe. Since we do not have earnings coming out until May, the movement in TSLA might be around 3 - 5% on a market rally. On the downside, I see TSLA not finding major support until $174 - $180 so if we start down this week, I will buy some APR 180 Puts to hedge my Naked Puts, but I am fully willing to take ownership of TSLA at $200.
==================================================================================================== 3/23/14 - This week will be pivotal for TSLA as we closed at the bottom of the gap range. I was filled on my swing trade on the 235 Calls and if the stock give this gap up tomorrow morning, I am looking for a test of the SGB and will have fishing orders in place on the $225 calls. If TSLA holds ground here and heads higher, I will sell some Bull Put Spreads.
========================================================================================================== 3/20/14 - Time to make a stand for investors to decide if we can get a pull back to test the gap or will they pile in early. I am looking for TSLA to test the gap since we have a full month before earnings come out again. If TSLA moves down next week or maybe even starts tomorrow and takes out last weeks low then I am looking to buy on a bounce off the SGB at $212.00. I am still fishing for my 235 calls for next week.
======================================================================================================== 3/16/14 - The SGB's strike again! Now that TSLA has begun to pull back, it managed to barely hold onto the last earnings gap, so if that fails, I fully expect this stock to test the next SGB down at T2 or as low as $200.00 - $215.00. Now if we get a market rally this week, TSLA is a favorite to find upside action if this current gap holds so I am looking for some calls on a test of T2 and puts on a failure of the gap support.
================================================================================================== 3/9/14 - Two more SGB's and the beginning of the profit taking is beginning, but, this stock is loved and any positive news shorts will cover so do not get too aggressive just yet because we have way too much momentum and there is nothing on the horizon but upside for this stock. The best way to play this one is with spreads and some low ball fishing orders looking for the dip buyers to step in. I am targeting calls 5% ITM and 89% of their current price.
=========================================================================================================== 3/2/14 - The SGB short signal proved to be an accurate signal once again on TSLA. The last one produced only one down day and now we have two. I will be watching how the markets move tomorrow, and if TSLA does rally, I will be looking for a test of the SGB high. On the downside, fully expect buyers to step in on any weakness so I am not going to aggresively short this stock.
=========================================================================================================== 2/27/14 - This stock is just too hot to get short. I am on the hunt for a pull back if I can get one and will do long strategies above T1. My Calls banked a huge win to pay for my puts that did not work out on the last SGB. I am going to watch yesterday's as the line in the sand, but not to short, just to fish for a low entry price until TSLA takes out T1.
==================================================================================================================== 2/23/14 - TSLA earnings were excellent and the stock made an impressive gap higher, but this one resulted in a third SGB short signal; and on Friday, traders began taking some profits. If TSLA opens lower on Monday and /or fails the high of the post earnings SGB, I will start doing some bearish short term strategies. For now, this stock is running strong on all cylinders, so any dips will be viewed as buying opportunities; therefore, we cannot get married to any successful short strategies—that means TAKE PROFITS at the 20% level or if you get bigger ones, make sure you put in profit stops at 20% or higher—pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered! TSLA has completed 13 weeks of trading since the last multi-week downturn, so I am looking for a test of $200 if the SGB proves to be the short signal, and if we get below that, I fully expect heavy bargain hunters at T2 or the 21MA. So, if you take on short strategies, then be sure to lock up any profits if you have them; otherwise, your strategy should be to fish for long entry points as TSLA pulls back on potential continued profit taking. The Mar 250 calls were filled so I am in for the duration on these and will add if TSLA moves back over last Thursdays SGB high on a closing basis. Remember to always FISH for a better entry price because the call options will be pumped up with plenty IV.
============================================================================================================== 2/18/14 - It's earnings time and TSLA is on fire despite cars burning to the ground. The love affair investors have for CEO Musk is just the same they had for Jobs...he is the new poster boy for innovation and bringing childhood dreams to reality. Now we have been trading in this stock for a long time and although I have left it alone for a month, I have not forgotten about it; I just wanted to find a great trade and catch a White Whale. Well, we have quite the opportunity in the next couple of days so let's get out our fishing poles and harpoons mates! Ok, the charts have an extremely bullish bias in spite of several failed SGB short signals, BUT, we have the makings of a very large move with a DOUBLE SGB setup on the Daily and confirmed with another SGB on the weekly. Now if the stock meets, or disappoints, I am fully expect a complete breakdown and pull back to my T3 target. I do not expect it to fall all that way in one day (it can happen) but I know it will get there especially if the markets also roll over again. If they beat, which is fully expected, then I expect this stock to rocket beyond $250. The play for me is to bias long and lay put nets for the upset.
We need to look for clues in the Open Interest and volume of the options and today there was a 1,000 contract trade on the Feb 14 200 Calls. It appears to be a spread, but I do not see the other side of this trade. Using my gut feel and expert analysis, I am thinking this was a big bet they will beat and the stock takes off on Thursday. There was also a massive 4,000 contracts on the Jan 2015 50 Puts so you have to figure those were Naked Puts a hedge fund or whale of a trader is fishing for.
The expected MMM move is $21 and Currently this stock is HTB (Hard to Borrow) at my Brokerage, and that will create a massive short squeeze if the company beats. ============================================================================================================= 1/22/14 - Nice profits going on the calls! Stop in place and will just keep looking for the next one. TSLA is about to take out my next SGB and it that happens, it's cleared to make new highs in the near future. Remember, this stock has a love affair with the public and the CEO going on so optimism will keep buying pressure on for a while. All the profit takers have been cleard out and now the value buyers are in. I suspect stops will be at $168-170 so long is the play above this.
========================================================================================================== 1/18/14 - Filled on all pending but the Jan Wk4 165 Calls at $5.50 - ================================================================================================================= 1/16/14 - Oops, had my dates crossed on TSLA earnings. They are not until Feb 17th. Still, we had a great week of trading but did not get the pull back I was hoping for. However, yesterday's trading resulted in a very big SGB, so we have our line in the sand—above stay long, below stop out or buy the dips on any bounce to the 89, 21, or 8 MA's.—this stock is going higher! I have no doubts that this stock will be very volatile all year so get ready for some MORE money making opportunities like we had this week. Just keep fishing for entry prices and start making some big gains going forward. I moved my strike up 1 but still fishing for a better entry point for next week.
============================================================================================== 1/14/14 - Wow the shorts were SQUEEZED HARD today off news stories and the beginnings of the electric car wars. With earnings on Friday, there could be a HUGE opportunity, especially if they miss! I am fishing for a pull back tomorrow and I will buy some puts too now that they are dirt cheap. If you jumped on some calls from my last comments, then you are VERY happy today! I hope you took some profits off the table if you did. Too bad earnings are not on Thursday so we could have a WW trade, but there will still be plenty of profits to made next week.
===================================================================================================== 1/12/14 - Time for earnings and the next major move for TSLA. Will 2014 be a continuation of the investor love affair? Well the will depend on how they buy into the next earnings release this Friday. I am looking for some big moves and will start fishing for a position in the next couple of days. The only bummer is they announce on a Friday so we will be forced into more expensive weekly options which will no doubt be heavily packed in extra premium—if you are a seller of premium, that will definitely be a bonus.
======================================================================================================== 12/22/13 - I am flat for now. ================================================================================================================ 12/18/13 - A whole lotta action in TSLA since my last post. TSLA held ground at T1 then rallied and held ground at T2 as a Bull 180. If the markets continue to rally off the Fed news today, then I expect TSLA to participate and reach T3. As Bull 180 play, T3 is a 100% take profit target but if you want to continue to hang on, then be sure to take some profits off the table and fish for another entry at T2 if we get one.
==================================================================================================== 12/713 - So far TSLA has pulled back to my T1 target and held. If the recent rally has any legs, then we need to see TSLA move higher on Monday and it will test that weekly high in the future. I plan on selling some Bull Put Spreads on Monday unless there is another news story to give this stock some more momentum. Any drop back under $135 and the bears will begin to believe this rally was nothing more than short covering off a news story and the slide back down will resume. This stock has huge resistance at $144 so it will take a lot more than a news story to get big money investors back on board but if that happens, then I see TSLA making a move back to at least $160. This stock still has a lot of love out there and any more dips will be viewed as a buy opportunity. The weekly chart shows us in a Level 2 Bull 180 with a perfect test of T2 so TSLA needs to hold T1 to keep this bullish play in tact.
========================================================================================================= 12/3/13 - Wow, what a HUGE day for TSLA! Shorts were covering all day as the news broke that Germans clear the Model S in fires. Looks like the love affair has been rekindled. Other related news was the launch of a rocket from Elon Musk's SpaceX company. With today's big move, I expect there to be some more even if the stock pulls back with the markets because investors will be looking for companies to put money into and TSLA just has way too much "future" going for it so people just want to get in the next rocket ride! I jumped all over some calls this morning when I saw the price action at the open and what a nice day if you were already fishing based on my comments below. The stock took out my T2 price level and the next milestone will be the 89MA on the daily chart at $159.00. If this momentum hold T2, then I expect TSLA to reach T4 over the next month or two. There will be a battle at the next SGB zone for sure, but I do think this stock will eventually reach $200+ a share if there are no more car fires and/or negative news releases. If we get any dip tomorrow that holds a 55% retracement of today's range, then I plan on selling some Dec 13 140 Bull Put Spreads and buying some more Dec 145 calls.
============================================================================================================= 11/30/13 - TSLA managed to have a decent week and it felt like old times with this stock. I did not get filled on my fishing orders and I was not going to chase it because the tone of this stock has changes and you cannot rely on the "just get in" type trades so we keep fishing for the right price. Your reward in trading is when you buy, not when you sell. Remember, "Entry is Key...Exit is everything" but first you have to get the correct entry to get the perfect exit! Friday's trading resulted in a SGB and the last three have resulted in quite a bit of selling so if TSLA fails to hold above Friday's then I full expect the stock to head right to the 200MA. Now if it can hold over Friday's low on Monday, then short will begin to believe the selling has subsided for now and start to cover. The upside resistance will be $160.00 and apart from some unexpecte4d news, I do not expect TSLA to get anywhere close to that price until next year after the next earnings release. TSLA has been in sell mode now for 8 weeks so I expect some kind of a bounce to start this week. The weekly chart is showing me a Level 1 Bull 180 so do not get too aggressive if you decide to buy some calls and T1 is NOT breached.
========================================================================================================= 11/26/13 - So far TSLA is holding ground, but any move under $120 an I will look for a test of the 200MA on the daily chart. Any positive news and I expect shorts to cover rapidly so I will start nibbling on some 140 calls but I am still bearish until TSLA gets down to T3. I have not gotten filled on my puts yet so I am still fishing for a cheap entry point because if TSLA does get a short covering boost, then I do not want to take a huge hit.
================================================================================================================= 11/25/13 - No action today but the chart is looking weak and I will add to my shorts if TSLA drops and holds under $120 tomorrow which is my last SGB zone.
=========================================================================================================== 11/19/13 - TSLA was taken to the woodshed and slammed down on Monday and today the bounce was dead stopped at a 55% retracement. If the stock cannot take out today's high tomorrow in the first 30 minutes and hold it, then the bears will be stepping on the GAS and I will be looking for TSLA to head to the 200MA on the daily chart this week. If TSLA manages to find support here and rises, then I will be looking to short it at T2.
================================================================================================================= 11/17/13 - That bounce produced squat. There is NO love for this stock for the time being. The latest SGB is a good short signal so there is where your stop should be at if you go short.
===================================================================================================== 11/11/13 - The bounce that will produce the next DROP has begun. Hope to see TSLA get back to $155.00 so I can short it for a drop back to $100
============================================================================================================= 11/6/13 - Cha-Ching!! Nice day to be SHORT TSLA!!! Caught a WW trade this morning too! I still have some puts on and will be looking for some more opportunities to get shot if the stock can manage a decent bounce but the chart is massively damaged and TSLA was unable to close back over the 89ma on the daily so we may just keep on driving down to T3.
================================================================================================== 11/5/13 - TSLA beats estimates but falls short on whisper numbers and unit distributions. Investors started a rally but quickly killed it and hit the sell button most of the after hours session. I could not get any shares to short so I missed out on some nice moves down. I attempted to scalp the long side but that was futile and cost me some coin. I have puts in place for the week and month, so if TSLA, which has crashed, burns, then I will be making some nice bucks to make up my losses on the call side. I am looking for a WW trade in the morning expecting this stock to pop and drop or drop and pop. The stock traded well below T1 and should see T2 easily if the selling accelerates this week. We will see if investors still have undying love for Musk and his ability to electrify them, but I think clearer heads are starting to catch on and this stock is ready for a sold return to a reasonable valuation around $100. There is technical support at $140 and there will no doubt be bargain shoppers looking to test the stocks resolve so be aware of that if you are shorting. If the stock does not rally tomorrow, I will sell some Bear Call Spreads.
Here was the action after hours and it's looking like we are headed much lower over the next few weeks.
============================================================================================= 11/4/13 - Earnings tomorrow and today was explosive as TSLA drives higher on hopes of a beat. This is a classic pump and dump scenario but we are not dealing with the usual stock and chart patterns, we are dealing with TSLA which counter trends to everything logical. This company gets a pass on valuation because investors are enamored with Elon Musk and until that changes, this stock will just keep driving higher until it literally crashes and burns like a couple of the cars have. When that crash comes, investors are going to get scorched beyond repair, but for now the shorts are getting singed. Ok, so can TSLA break over $200? You better believe it can and will if they blow out earnings. If today's action is any indication, then this stock could very well see $200 before earnings are released. Now if they miss (not likely) then the selling will be twice the distance of the recent pullback so you have to have put in place for sure. My plan is to buy some puts in the after noon session if the stock races up in the morning and then I want to sell some OTM Call spreads. Expected MMM is currently priced in at $17.79 so if TSLA does what is expected, then the stock would be trading at $197-$200 depending on how it closes tomorrow. In post market trading, TSLA continued to rise another $1.78 so it still has plenty of bullish sentiment continuing.
Here is what the weekly options did today. There are plenty of speculators on both sides of this stock so expect some strong moves on this announcement. Since FB was a bit of a bust, the speculators are looking for a reason to move in to a stock and TSLA is definitely the last one of this earnings season to deliver some huge gains.
Calls
Puts
==================================================================================================== 10/29/13 - Another model S fire and the stock gets crushed. When it found support at the 89 MA I cashed in my short plays today. With earnings coming next week, and this perfect technical bounce, we should see TSLA make a strong move higher this week if it can get back over $165. I fully expect T1 to be reached which is a full test of the M pattern as outlined below. If they miss earnings then this stock could be on its way back to a real valuation price level over the next couple of months. There are still tons of buy ratings and price targets of $200 plus. I put on another small put position at the close just in case today's 89MA bounce fails, but if TSLA makes it back over $165 and holds in the morning then I will buy some calls and sell some Bull Put spreads. I full expect some stock fireworks at earnings. The weekly chart is showing massive selling has been going on so in the long run, I think TSLA will definitely make us a lot of money on the short side if earnings are a bust.
==================================================================================================================== 10/21/13 - Is TSLA about to take a real dive? Today was the biggest drop this stock has seen all year. I do not think this stock has fallen as much as it can and until the next earnings release, I suspect it will find support this week around $160. For me, I want to see it hold above T1 for longs and below I would be cautious about shorting because this stock has a long history of squeezing shorts. If T1 fails, then I see it falling to at least $160 or the 89MA for the next support bounce. I sold some Nov 13 200 Naked Calls today.
============================================================================================== 10/17/13 - Markets at all time highs again and TSLA is NOT participating...yet. The chart is looking VERY bearish and if TSLA does not take out the current SGB it is a SHORT until it does.
======================================================================================================= 10/16/13 - Government shut down kicked down the road, DOW rallies 200 points and TSLA closed DOWN? Huh?? Wow, you would of expected this stock to be up at least twice the percent gain of the DOW today. We have a very interesting candle pattern in play and all the signs are pointing to a decline in this stock is about to begin. Of course every time investors have attempted to short this stock, they get whacked, but this time the candle patterns are telling a very strong story for the bears. Just remember, if you short this stock and it does not work out, GET OUT. There will be plenty of opportunities in the future for shorting. I would say you are better off just selling some call spreads for now since TSLA is still well above my T1 target.
Saw some HEAVY volume on the Nov 13 155 puts today—that was me...just kidding...but I am going to buy some tomorrow.
===================================================================================================================== 10/13/13 - What a week of ups and downs and UPS again. I am not so sure these past few trading days are euphoria buyers looking for a bargain. I am more of the mind the markets are being manipulated to sucker in buyers while the big money is exiting. Of course, that can be a complete and utter disaster if that be the case, and if not, a new frontier of upside is on the way. Either way, you have to lower your exposure or increase your insurance until the government shut down drama is over. Earnings season is kicking off again, so all eyes are definitely on the high flyers and TSLA is going to be a pivotal one. If they miss, along with market disaster, I do not think investors are going to give this stock a pass like they have done with AMZN for so many years. If the the markets are in full recovery of the bull run, then TSLA will definitely get that pass and keep right on rising. Either way, you must be straddled on this one. I plan on keeping some DOTM fishing puts on deck all the way into earnings which is currently scheduled to be released on 11/6/13.
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