Option Plays for - TWTR
The trades below are for educational purposes only.
They are not recommendations to purchase any particular stock or options contract.
Note: they are suggested entry and exit points! disclaimer
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Stock Information Updated 4/21/18 |
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Company Name: Twitter Inc. Stock ticker symbol: TWTR
Current Price: $17.09 Change: -0.14 (-0.81%)
Weekly IV: 147.23% MMM +/- 2.03
52-week high: $52.22 52-week low: $13.91
Earnings: 4/25/18 Before) |
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Trade Bias: Cautiously Bullish |
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Trade Type: Lotto Calls Bull Spreads Covered Calls |
TWTR Commentary
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4/21/18 - Wow I can't believe it's been two years since I last commented on TWTR. A lot has happed in the stock over the past two years and the last time I mentioned the stock was nearly cut in half; this time it has nearly doubled from my last comments. If you were a buy-and-hold investor in the stock, then you are feeling pretty good right about now— with several quarters in his belt, CEO (Jack Dorsey) has proven his worth, and the stock has made him, the company and millions of investors a very tidy profit! I have placed several trades on TWTR over the past couple of years; and now I am paying very close attention to it since the stock put in that huge SGB back in Feb 2018. On Friday we got another SGB exactly in the middle of the big one; and now I am ready to pounce on TWTR like Sylvester looking for a nice profit meal!
This stock is still a high probability takeover candidate so you need to keep some Wild Card Lotto Calls in play if this is one o your "go to" stocks. With earnings coming out Wed before the bell; we could see a couple of days of good momentum post release; and so I am fishing for CALL strikes up to 15% OTM; and will buy some puts on Tuesday 10% OTM because the IV is really pumped up now at 133%.
=========================================================================================================== 4/25/16 - It has been a while since I commented on TWTR and since that time the stock has been nearly cut in half. Way back then, the rumors of a buyout were high and they still are talking about that scenario. However, as you can see, those rumors were more like pipe-dreams to keep the Bull buying into the funds selling. Of course, it is always easy to see what results are AFTER they are played out. The real magic is figuring it out before it happens; and then placing your bets on the correct side. Not that the stock is trading on it's low's, it is more of a takeover candidate than ever, so upside surprises are very probable. The focus this time will be on how many subscribers they have gained since the new CEO (Jack Dorsey) took over the reigns. This will be the second quarter under his leadership, so I am sure big fund managers are interested to see if this CEO is Superman or Aquaman. TWTR has more than 300 million users; however, that is small compared to FB and Instragram users but if they report lower user growth, or worse, lower users, then we can see this stock get cut in half; and maybe never get a buyout deal. Social networks are full of fickle users, and when they think their "thang" is not popular, they will flock to the one that is. It is hard to think that TWTR will fade away since it is so entwined in the internet world, but who even remembers or talks about MySpace anymore? For now, I will be speculating with DOTM calls and playing some short term puts for earnings this week.
Option sentiment still bullish
Big bets placed today on puts
Short interest:
====================================================================================================================== 10/26/15 - Are we going to get a nice treat from TWTR for Halloween week? New CEO in place but he is running two companies? Must be a big red S hidden under his shirt...lol. This stock is more of a buyout play over the longer haul so I am going to keep some OTM calls going on this stock for a while and then day trade shares around my positions to finance it and with IV pumped up it's a good time to sell some premium too.
============================================================================================================ 7/28/15 - Icarus, you are flying too close to the sun...but dad, I Taut I Taw a Puddy Tat!
Unfortunately for Twitter, the cats claw reached up and dragged it DOWN in after hours trading today. My short shares are banking in after hours trading and if the deluge continues, the puts are going to make some very nice gains too.
============================================================================================================== 7/27/15 - Tomorrow is earning for TWTR and analysts and investors will get a look at how the new CEO is handing things as the company tries to find its wings again and soar...or is that...sorely grounded...lol. Will this company find that fund love again or are they just wafting for it to get sucked up by another firm (maybe FB??) in the coming months. Only time is goingm to tell that tale so I am proactive in holding onto my short shares and keeping my Lotto Calls in place week-to-week for the surprise buyout.
BIG BET placed today that TWTR will indeed fly again in the future. This person or fund sent a whopping $4.5 MILLION bucks on these Jan17 calls so they have a very long time for the trade to pan out.
The stock has very bullish sentiment so another miss or perceived weakness in the new management and we could get a crushing blow tomorrow.
======================================================================================================================= 7/20/15 - There was some activity in TWTR last week that may be a clue to future price movement. The stock shot up to $39 and was immediately slammed back down and then put in two practically identical down days with today being a DOJI. TWTR announces earnings on 7/28/15 which happens to be the day before FB so things are definitely going to be interesting for the social media space. Maybe FB and TWTR do a merge or AAPL buys TWTR. I have short shares on TWTR and I keep doing Wild Card Lotto calls every week, so I am adding new positions tomorrow.
There was a pretty big call buy today
=============================================================================================================== 7/12/15 - This stock has more reason to keep falling and only a buyout to go up in the short term. With the new CEO at the helm, and there is no buyout, it will take a few quarters to entice big money investors back in this stock so we stay short shares and long lotto calls.
================================================================================================================= 7/6/15 - The latest attempt to rally was cut short by the last SGB and investors sold last week and again today. There is a see change in this stock and investors vs. speculators are going to have to see who comes out on top. I plan to short shares and fish lotto calls 10% OTM on a consistent basis because I believe this stock is a takeover sure bet but it most likely has to get a lot cheaper before that happens.
=================================================================================================================== 6/28/15 - TWTR has been holding ground in the mid 30's; which could be a good thing for us as any positive news will cause short sellers to cover so we need to just keep fishing for Lotto Calls and hold a few Bear Call Spreads in the event the stock takes a turn for the worse again. However, news this last week that another executive (Rishi Garg) is leaving the company put another cats claw in the Twitter; and until the new CEO has a couple of quarters under his tutelage; big money investing in TWTR will not be happening. What we do have is the continued speculation the company will be snapped up by a bigger putty-tat on the prowl so I want to be holding onto OTM Lotto Calls in the hopes it happens...sooner than later too! We still have that big SGB zone and I think the only way this stock gets over all of it with with a knee-jerk reaction by short sellers or that buyout I am waiting for. As for short sellers, there are currently only 25M shares short equating to 1.2 days to cover, so that is by no means an extreme. IV is still pumped up at 43% but that is also low for this stock which can be even more fuel for our fire if we get that announcement.
========================================================================================================================================== 6/21/15 - What? Dick Costolo is stepping down and the stock actually drops on the news?? That was market maker manipulation to whack all those investors how jumped on the band wagon. The selling appears to be brief and now the stock is on a potential rebound. Watch for analysts coming out with "upgrade" ramblings because that could be another suckers punch to completely get OUT of this stock. As you know, I have been fishing for a buyout trade, and you have to know it will happen eventually if the new CEO cannot get innovation going in a much bigger way. I plan to keep an eye on the big SGB and on the news if the stock fails this zone, I will look for more short term bearish trades, but I plan to keep on fishing with DOTM calls.
====================================================================================================================== 6/9/15 - This stock is ready to get murdered on the weekly chart and the only thing to save it is that buyout speculation I have holding onto but for that to happen, I think it has to get a lot cheaper so shorting is the bias with lotto calls.
============================================================================================================ 5/31/15 - Just stick to my buyout speculation trades for now.
================================================================================================================ 5/23/15 - Is it over for TWTR? I am looking for the buyout opportunity and will continue to fish for lotto calls, but now I am going to try on some lotto puts because if this stock drops down to $34 there will be a test of the lows at $30. Any company looking to buy TWTR will want to get it at a bargain so we could be for a very sharp move down and then back up.
=================================================================================================== 5/10/15 - I am continuing my lotto fishing for a buyout in the future.
=================================================================================================================== 5/5/15 - Another SGB today making this chart VERY bearish so that is when MM look to SQUEEZE shorts so if you do short, you better have some OTM calls in play just in case that buyout announcement hits the news in the future.
==================================================================================================================== 5/3/15 - With this much selling, there is sure to be margin calls over the weekend which means the opportunity for more downside is strong; however, not that the stock is trading below it's ipo price, it could become a potential attractive takeover candidate by another company, maybe GOOGL? I am going to keep some DOTM calls running on this one in the hopes they will bet a buyout offer. Thursday we got my accurate short signal SGB so now we have a solid pivot point to place long/shot plays on; however, I am not a fan of shorting at the moment because bargain hunters are definitely hanging around at these price levels.
4/29/15 - The deluge continued today as investors gave up all hope of a rebound. The stock is holding ground at previous support, but now that this much damage has been done, Investors are not so easily going to jump back in until they see how May stats off. The company did beat estimates, it was the guidance the threw a wrench into the mix. There was also a very suspect pre earnings release before the market closed and that was some definite manipulation that should be investigated. Today the CEO was on CNBC talking about the future and his frustrations with how the earnings report was sabotaged but he did mention something interesting to me. He reiterated that they were in partnership with GOOGL and search is going to get stronger in the future. He was also lamenting on how everyone thinks he is the bad guy in the room and how he runs things up/down/sideway and just flat out wrong, but he is willing to take any and all flaming arrows and continue at the helm. The wild card would be for GOOGL to just buy the company out; and if that were to happen, we would see a very sharp spike higher; so if you are into speculation, and I am, I would suggest you keep some DOTM calls running on this stock.
4/28/15 - They did see a Puddy Tat and he is taking TWTR apart today. I had a bias to the upside; however, the puts saved the day and banked a big enough profit to cover everything...whew.
All my TWTR trades
================================================================================================================= 4/27/15 - Earnings are tomorrow and the action is ready to begin. IV is cranked up to 120% so selling premium is a good bet; however, since AAPL did not take off and FB was a dud, maybe TWTR will be the first one out the gate this week and take off. The carts are looking bullish but the all time highs on this stock is way up there at $75 so it would take an amazing quarter and some huge announcement to get this stock anywhere close to that price point. There is not any real big bets placed but someone is speculating with weekly 53.50 calls and May 15 39.50 puts. Investors are decidedly bullish with call at 2:1 over puts so a miss would give us a good drop opportunity.
====================================================================================================================== 11/22/14 - Just fishing for a a while.
11/20/14 - Looking like it wants to slide lower so I am not fighting the trend and will cash in on my BCS tomorrow. I have a fishing order in for Dec Calls.
======================================================================================================== 11/16/14 - So far the stock has filled the huge gap from Aug earnings and it stopped just above my T4 line? Huh? I'm the technical genius and that pisses me off the stock hovered just above my line!! Well, that would only be the case with a stock that is named like a Tweety Bird...lol. Ok, that does not mean it will not hit my line, and if that happens, I think it will just plunge right through it...lol. I day traded the stock last week during the analyst meeting and it felt like it wants to move higher so if it does get back to flying, it will have to soar past the 200MA to get the big money technical buyers back on board but for me, it has to take out the SGB from that gap. A continued move higher this week is suspect, and should be traded as such if you go long.
==================================================================================================================== 11/2/14 - Awe the Twitter bird was whacked by the Puddy Tat and now it's flying with a broken wing. I am sure there will be some bargain shopper looking for a new entry point so get some orders in at T4 and see if this bird can fly again.
============================================================================================== 10/29/14 - They met earnings, but guidance was not positive, so the stock was whacked and continued lower prices are the most likely result. Twitter, like FB is fully entrenched in everyone's lives across the internet so it still has a ton of growth potential and that means bargain hunters are lurking below to buy, buy ,buy. Look for that buying speculation at 8 - 12% moves lower. I will be looking for a bounce under T4.
====================================================================================================================== 10/26/14 - Tomorrow is earnings for TWTR and with three SGB's last week, this stock is ready for a measured move in my estimation! I adjusted my T-Levels for the Weekly Bear 180. As you can see, my T2 target was spot on and if TWTR misses earnings then look for a drop to T3 and move to T4. A big beat again, and I expect a rally to T1 and/or new heights. We know from experience, the SGB's are biased to the SHORT side so overweight puts. The expected MMM is currently at +/- 6.30 which is a greater than 10% move. Big contract buys on Friday all the way out into Jan2015 and Mar 2015 as spreads so not big directional bets so far.
More Calls 67,303 than Puts 41,258 IV on the OctWk 5 options is currently at 130%, so selling premium OUTSIDE the expected MMM is a pretty good bet. Last quarter the company surprised with a profit of $0.02 vs. expected loss (0.28) and the stock shot up over 25% or $10! Since that was a very big surprise, the stock was sold off immediately becoming an isolated SGB at that time. When it bottomed out a week later, we got two back-to-back SGB's that were bought and then a very nice rally. Now comes tomorrow and we have to figure out what the next moves is so looking over the charts, there are more Bear Elephant Bars that Bull Elephant Bars and we know that only institutional activity can make these happen. With institutions holding 51.50% of the outstanding shares, that is still enough to cause quite a short squeeze if they beat again; however, since last quarter was a surprise beat, this quarter analysts are still expecting an even bigger loss (-0.266). The current short interest is a staggering 3.6 million and estimated days to cover is 26.1...WOW. So, if they do beat with an even bigger number than last quarter, expect new all time highs in the coming week(s). Since we are dealing with a media social network company, there is always high potential for counter moves to the SGB's, but I still overweight puts because I make better profits over time. I am buying weekly puts and picking up some monthly OTM calls and Bull Put Spreads.
====================================================================================================================== 10/19/14 - Time for TWTR to fly or die with this SGB in play. With earnings a week away we will have a good trade opportunity with this stock. Investors are always looking for growth companies and TWTR is a popular one with lots of potential. The last earning report was excellent and the stock gapped up strongly, so the expectations for another move like that is fresh in the minds of investors. Friday the stock put in a SGB that amazingly lined up with the one it put in after the earnings release and then immediately sold off. We know these are very reliable short signals but trading on them ahead of earnings is a bit of a gamble. If the company kills it again, we could easily see it take out the all time highs providing it does not slip lower this week and if it's a total bust, then I expect the stock to fill last quarters gap. Not that it will happen the next day, but you just can't predict it—well, maybe I can get close...lol.
============================================================================================================= 10/12/14 - Market declines and Ebola scare has investors taking profits on high flying over valued stocks like TWTR. IF Friday's bear elephant bar has legs, the selling is about to accelerate with an easy first target at T2 and ugly target at T3. My 50 puts are about to start kicking in some profits so we will see how things get going. The calls were stopped out for a nice profit.
============================================================================================================= 10/5/14 - Looks like the TWTR is back to flying new heights as the strong employment report created a gap in the markets and this stock. Now that October is underway, this marks the 5th month that GPRO has been steadily rising so what I am looking for is a complete retracement to T4; however, if the stock moves back under T3 then it's a short opportunity back to T2.
============================================================================================================================ 9/28/14 - Time for TWTR to make a move or break a wing. My T3 line has proven to be the top of this impressive retracement from the lows. I know this is a loved stock, so common sense trading is pretty much useless for now. I am going to try a couple of puts on this week, but if the stockmoves over $53.50 I am back into long plays.
================================================================================================================= 9/21/14 - Is this stock drinking from the fountain of youth or cool-aid? No sooner than I wrote we are in play for higher ground, TWTR get's whacked down tot he 200MA; however, investors just looked at that as a bargain and snapped the stock back over my T3 line! This week will be the test for the Bulls and Bears and if the stock fails or passes, we will get a nice move in either direction This is a good time to put on a straddle with a long time line.
============================================================================================================= 9/14/14 - As I predicted, TWTR erased the bearish engulfing candle, took out T3 and is now sitting EXACTLY on my T3 line...wow...what can I say other than, I am the man! lol Ok, so what should we expect in the coming weeks? More of the same so long as good news keeps coming out. The thing to notice is TWTR stopped right at the base of the last super sell off, so investors who were wiped out have not recovered all that pain if there bought at or near the bottom. On the other hand, it they have held on (most do) then "luck" kicked in and they have most of their money back. What would you be doing right about now? I think most would be hopeful of taking out the all time highs, but definitely ready to cut and run on any perceived failure. What I will be looking for is another big SGB before I look for aggressive short plays; so until then, I will be looking for more long strategies but fishing for better entry points.
==================================================================================================================== 9/7/14 - Am I a chart/tech genius or what? TWTR flew right up to my T3 line and pulled back to the 8MA. and so long as TWTR rides the 8-Train, I am bullish; and if it makes a move over that big red bar (technically called a bearish engulfing candle), we are off to higher ground and testing of the all time highs.
======================================================================================================================== 8/30/14 - From up here I can see all the Puddy Tat's and I have no plans to come down...lol is what investors must be thinking right now. The likely target next week is my T3 line at $52.00 and after that, the skies the only limit for Tweety Twitters. Any dips will be bought so get on board and just buy more time if you are selling premium, then sell more time so you get some fattened up IV to melt into your account.
================================================================================================================ 8/26/14 - SGB's ignored as strong news hits the wires and so goes TWTR flying to new heights. Of course the SGB's are not 100%, but when they fail, they become PERFECT pivot points, so we move into long bias until TWTR falls under the big one on the daily chart. Dan on Fast Money thinks there is new momentum and if TWTR takes out $50 the skies the limit. I plan to put on some Bull spreads, sells some naked puts and speculate with some OTM longer term calls—my first target is T3. If you plan on getting some longs on, I would buy some at the open and FISH for better entry points after that.
===================================================================================================== 8/21/14 - Took profits in my Bull Put Spread and filled on the Sep 40 puts for a lot better price. Looking for some selling to kick in.
================================================================================================ 8/17/14 - Still finding some diehard bulls but failed at the SGB and if the stock does not take out that SGB, it's a short.
============================================================================================================= 8/12/14 - The last two days both produced SGB's and if those fail, along with T2, we are in for a strong move lower. This is still a popular stock, so any news and short will stampede. I am going to pick up some 40 Sep puts and a few Lotto $41.50 puts for this week.
================================================================================================================== 8/10/14 - A little more slippage under the T2 line but any market wide rally, and TWTR is on the move again. If we do get some more selling, I am a buyer anywhere around the 21MA on the daily chart.
=========================================================================================================== 8/6/14 - A DOJI test in play today so we have a definite directional moving coming. There was movement in FB that fell apart but TWTR managed to hold ground EXACTLY on my T2 line. I am a chart "master" lol...I know it's hard to believe sometimes, but I assure you I did NOT move my line to make a point, the stock found my line like a magnet finds metal! ;-) Remember, they beat earnings and has a huge quarter so investors are digesting the news and deciding if this media company will get the goods to the table and monetize their subscriber base in a much bigger way. Bottom line, this stock is good for at least two more quarters of upside speculation so get your longs on and hold on for the ride—just buy more time!
========================================================================================================= 8/4/14 - Sitting EXACTLY on my T2 line today and AI think this stock will bounce around here so I am selling some Bull Put Spreads
==================================================================================================================== 7/30/14 - CHA-CHING!! Cashed in on my Lotto and Rent plays today!!! Looking for the next setup. We have a SGB today to guide us, but I would not short this stock under the SGB, I am looking to get long if that happens.
================================================================================================= 7/29/14 - Earnings blow out and this sucker SOARS +35% in after hours!! WOW nice to be on the long side tomorrow!! TWTR is here to stay and say they are kicking ass and taking names in 148 characters or less!! The Bull Put Spread and Calls should be in big profit territory tomorrow if the stock can hold over $50 at the open tomorrow!!
===================================================================================================== 7/28/14 - Tomorrow is earnings and there is a lot of speculation this company will fly or die so you have to play both sides because the moves can be large enough to make you profits; however, you have to buy MORE TIME. With the recent IPO and enthusiastic run up in price, it appears investors were not convinced the stock could change the world one tweet at a time. Currently it trades BELOW the IPO high so if they do beat the shorts will cover and UP we go. This stock, like FB, is a long term play so if you just want to invest in shares, then hold them for years to come because the stock will go higher or be bought out in the future, they have way too many users and are entrenched in everything on the internet.
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