Play Recommendations: Play 23

Lotto Weekly Options:

NovWk5 570 C (SOLD)

NovWk5 610 C (Expired)

NovWk5 585P (Expired)

NovWk5 ATM straddle on Friday morning $0.10 - .20 options - No trade

Monthly Options:

Next week will be the beginning of December trading and the hope for a Santa Clause Rally. Will it bring us lots of cash goodies is yet to be seen, but the volatility will no doubt be there to keep us on our toes.

I plan on keeping weekly OTM calls going all month just in case AAPL makes a surprise special dividend announcement like other have already done. If that happens, you know this stock will go absolutely ballistic.

Chart shows a most interesting pattern this past week of trading and any move should be a measured one when it breaks above either of my lines.

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11/29/12 - Another interesting day today trading AAPL. What started out as a gap up rally, was quickly sold off and the bounce was also sold off keeping AAPL under VWAP all day on the 15 minute chart. There was brief attempt to get over it after the Fiscal Cliff news of the day played out, but AAPL could not manage a comeback and traded flat the last hour of the day. In after hours it slipped lower, but that may be an intentional fake out for tomorrow. As you may know, tomorrow is the last trading day of November and there will no doubt be a lot of portfolio shuffling getting ready to take sides for the final month of trading for 2012. Will AAPL get polished and rise with seeds of greatness or will gravity be the catalyst and pluck this sucker down into a free fall testing the $505 bottom? Well, you could not get a better chart set up than today to make your case for either direction. The daily chart put in a perfect Doji signaling a change is a coming.

I am the ultimate PUTomist, but I definitely like the future upside for the next two months as we start the Santa-Clause-hope-we-rally. The problem is this year brings all kinds of road blocks, scary world ending propaganda and even scarier TV watching all the crazy looking political nut balls spewing all day about fiscal, schmiscal, dismal, criminal bumblings we have to put up with. It just makes me sicker than a dog eating his vomit listening to all this bull rap.

Bottom line, these leaches are going to make sure you and I get thoroughly screwed with future revenue collections and so that means we better get ready for a hell of a ride to povertyville. 

Ok, so where does that leave us when it comes to trading the big AAPL? Well, today I bought the 610 calls at the close and I will be ready to jump on the direction of the day tomorrow once trading starts. I will be looking for $0.10-20 cent options tomorrow and hope we get a measured move to round out the months trading. The rumblings in the news wires is a hope-call for AAPL to jump on the "special" year end dividend like LVS, COST and others have announced. If this were to happen, then AAPL will jump better than10% in a single day so I I am going to keep a call option going for the entire month just in case.

As for a potential end of year trade opportunity, Crame says AAPL is the best of breed and you can buy, buy, buy. I suggest you take that with a handful of salt but he may be right this time.

Either way, I am a day trader so I just want this stock to make big moves and I will continue to make BIG BUCKS!.

Weekly Options show more bulls on board for tomorrow

Dec options show heavy resistance at $600 so if AAPL clears it, then watch for a measured moved higher.

Not much short interest to cover, and that means bulls are in charge of this stock and when that is the case, a stock can drop very hard and fast so keep a running put going and get ready to exploit the next measured move!

Profits Up!

The donFranko

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11/28/12 - Oh the weather outside if frightful, and the congressional-children aren't so delightful, so the market has nowhere to go...let the cash flow flow flow ;-)

Did you hear the rumblings from our prez today? They were more like bumblings, but with a little childish contempt for his constituents on the "hill". Once all of today's con-grass-smokers-ass-oh-I-c-nothin news played out, the markets staged a strong rally; and that lifted AAPL from what was begging to be another leg down. This may just be the final bottom based on today's trading action, but I am not bullish until AAPL is firmly over $600 or above the 200MA on the daily chart. 

I will be on the hunt for a Lotto Play on Friday with AAPL and GOOG

Profits Up!

The donFranko

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11/27/12 - No follow through from yesterday. See, I told you when Citi gets on board with upgrades, it's time to start looking for shorts—probably not the case, but just my suspicious nature at work...lol

Ok, so what is in store for the AAPL? Everyone says it's a screaming buy, but some are still saying it's only a relief rally and there is more reason to go DOWN in the short term....a technical chart reason. Stocks like AAPL tend to buck the chart trends for a while in the short-term, and with month end coming Friday, I suspect AAPL will take a breather the rest of the week and then get it's mojo on for the hopeful Santa Clause Rally. Only this time, there is a real "Fiscal-Clause" in the future for the markets. It's the Fiscal Cliff and if things do not get fixed before year end, we could see old Santa getting stuck in the north pole vs. brining us lots of gifts, goodies and Apple treats!

What I did notice today is AAPL did not move higher at the open and started to immediately sell off for the first 15 minutes. It did rally right back and eventually touched on $590 before selling off the rest of the afternoon. What was interesting to me is the stock traded the entire day inside the first 15 minute bar and closed right at that 15 minute bars closing price too. I am still bearish tomorrow since AAPL closed the day under VWAP.

We could still see a rally in the stock back to $600-610 if the markets rally, so I will be looking for a Lotto Play on Friday with this stock.

Profits Up!

The donFranko

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11/26/12 - More apple pie and some Citi-cream on top! Upgrades, accolades and happy days are here with AAPL. What a rally off my target zone bottom. Today, AAPL traded right into my target zone retracement and is poised to take out $600 tomorrow. But will it be able to? Whenever I start hearing more and more upgrades coming, especially when Citi-Group jumps on, I start looking for SHORT opportunities. At the very least, I would protect what you have gained with tighter stops. If AAPL gaps up tomorrow and holds the first 15 minutes, then go long with a strict stop just under the first 15 minute low. If it fails, then go with puts and look for a re-test of $555.00. Upside target this week is $605.00 - $635.00

If you have shares of this stock and are still feeling the sting of a margin call, then you better have a strict stop in at $570 or puts at 2:1 of your shares held. If you are trading with more than 2:1 margin overnight, you are playing with FIRE. I am still very bullish on this stock so I would like to see a gap and crap tomorrow so I can short with Puts and grab a quick $10.00 profit. If the rally continues, I am going with calls but following with tight stops.

If I get the sell off and a test of $555.00 holds (if it happens this week) I will go full throttle and get long calls. I anticipate AAPL making a run back to $650 and higher into December and beyond for the earnings run in Jan. If they miss earnings estimates again, it's going to be a massive beating and permanent correction.

Profits Up!

The donFranko

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11/20/12 - As I suspected, today stated out up but was quickly sold off and never looked back. Each rally attempt was sold off lower until AAPL touched down at $555. A pivot point I have talked about in past plays (see archives). This is a short trading week, so any bias you may have cannot carry a lot of weight until next week when Congress is back in the seat and the propaganda machine starts us towards the Fiscal Cliff fiascos. AAPL is still capable of dropping back to last Friday's low, so if the stock fails to hold my prices points below, you better have puts to protect your shares or just buy puts and catch a nice ride down.

Profits Up!

The donFranko

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11/19/12 - The Steam Rollin' rally is moving forward with AAPL leading the way. Will it continue is the big question. This is going to be a shortened trading week due to the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday and the markets will be closed Thursday and Friday will be a short day so trading is usually bullish and that is exactly what we had today. Let's just hope this rally is not a "bull in a china shop" and we just keep power driving right back to $700 by Jan 2013 earnings.

If you were long at the open you were very nicely rewarded today. I know millions of investors are THANKFUL that AAPL found, what appears to be, a solid bottom and many just missed more margin calls. This is what you look for as a day-trader, the dreaded margin calls that create the capitulation event like we had last Friday.

Technically, AAPL has now retraced a whopping 11.8% off Friday's low of $505.75 and 30% of the massive $199.00 drop from its all time high. This will be subject to a pause in the action and a proof of life that AAPL is in deed back on track to keep moving higher. If the stock does not hold $540 then it must hold $520.

Profits Up!

The donFranko