LOTTO Plays - 2012
These are the results from trades suggested on our "Current Plays" list.
Note: they are suggested entry and exit points! disclaimer Profits Up!!
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LAST UPDATE:
4/25/12
AAPL Lotto Play 6
4/25/12 - Banked a very nice profit today!!!
======================================================================================== AAPL BEATS by a wide margin! Stock launched in post market and looks good for more price improvement tomorrow!! My options will make some nice BANK tomorrow!!!
Here are my trades for AAPL
=================================================================================== 2/23/12 - Tomorrow is the BIG DAY for Apple! The stock sold off a little today and held the gap from the March earnings quarter. Today, the candle pattern is a Hammer Doji indicating the selling is over. In addition to that, the pattern is also another Bull 180 so if they beat earnings it's looking like a massive move to the upside is eminent. I will take my positions tomorrow.
===================================================================================================== 4/20/12 - AAPL now in Correction Territory Selling continued today and picked up speed after lunch. I was watching and trading it all day but I could not get a solid foothold to make a big profit; however, I got a good feel for the stock and if AAPL beats earnings the shorts are going to get squeezed big time. With the VZ news that iPhone activations were way down, the stock just sold off all week. In my experience, this type of situation tends to be a good buying opportunity. After all, this stock is massively loved and supported. The company has a great product line and more coming with Apple TV, iPhone 5 and other things in the pipeline. The anticipation is the major factor keeping this stock up. This particular quarter is going to be a pivotal point for price action until the December quarter, so AAPL must beat and beat handily. We started a new options expiration month on Monday, but you will have lower priced options with the weekly. You can definitely do a straddle on this one because AAPL should move more than enough to make you money. I would do the straddle on the May expiration and gamble on the weekly puts because if they miss, the fall will be hard and fast. I am sure there are plenty of fund managers just hoping for a big dip so they can buy buy buy. Be sure to keep your put strikes above the 100 MA to assure you are in position to get the best shot at being ITM if the stock falls
Ok, so how else can you play AAPL and make some money if you really want to own the stock, but not sure you want the risk of a big drop in price if they miss earnings. Well, the best way to "test" the water on a highly volatile stock is to sell a Naked Put on it. We know AAPL is a very loved stock with lots of upside potential; however, we just do not know if the current price is worth the risk to jump in on the long side before a big anticipated earnings announcement. So, the best way to get in the game is to collect some FREE rent by selling a Naked Put. That way, you will get paid to buy the stock on a dip. Of course if the earnings are good then you might be saying to yourself, dang, I missed out...not so fast because we know we want to own the stock, so I would just take that premium you were paid and buy calls. That way, you do not miss out and you get a chance to buy the stock cheaper without all the risk—WIN WIN Trading. Typically, a stock will move approximately 10% on good news, but it can drop well over that on bad; however, with this particular stock, a miss is not a disaster, so you just need to decide at what price you would love to own this stock. Since the stock has fallen nearly 11% from its record high, you could just add on another 10% drop from here and you, like just about every technical fund manger, would think that is a real bargain to pick up this stock. Ok, looking over the options, you could sell the $505 Naked Puts today and collect $6.20 in premium. That is to say, if AAPL closes below $505 by expiration, you will have to buy the stock for $505.00 per share. Now if they do not close below this price, you keep the premium and you did not have to layer the risk for just buying the stock ahead of earnings. That's some easy money in your pocket, but I am not looking for the easy money, I want the BIG FAT PAYDAY money, so I am willing to own this stock at any price above $500 and I would sell a few strike prices to collect some higher premium. Lets assume you have the money to buy 1,000 shares of this stock, so here is what I would do: Sell 5 of the May $505 for $11 = $3,100.00 Sell 2 of the May $520 for $9.10 = $1,840.00 Sell 3 of the May $550 for $18.35 = $5,505.00 Total Premium Collected: $10,445.00 Now I would take 50% and buy the $600 Weekly Calls and the other 50% I would buy the May 620's. Buy 5 AprWk4 600 Calls = 11.00 or $5,500.00 Buy 5 May 620 Calls = 12.90 or $5,160 Remember, I am not looking to pocket the premium, I am hoping the stock actually launches so I can make far more money in profits on the options vs. buy the shares outright at the current price.
Want to really take a gamble? Investors are willing to take a super long short and are buying way deep OTM May calls
============================================================================= 4/19/12 - Wow, this stock has been on one wild ride since last earnings quarter. You just need to buy calls and hold on. Upgrade after upgrade has been handed out along with accolades and love from analysts, news talking heads, customers and even my Grandma...lol Everyone wants a piece of the Apple Pie. Today, this stock took a hit in price action due to VZ saying that iPhone activations were down sharply from previous quarters. This could be the beginning of the end for this tech giant for the short term. I certainly know they will keep heading higher because the momentum is just too great, so any dip or drop will be met with lots of buyers. They report earnings next Tuesday after the bell, and it's going to be explosive no doubt. Last earnings they announced a dividend and beat estimates handily. Now that Christmas buying is long gone, will there be enough iPad buying to keep the confidence going? If VZ has lower iPhone activation, then the chink in the armor is quite visible so they have to really beat earnings estimates to keep the magic going. Hey, maybe they will announce another stock split; however, if they do, it would have to be a traditional one unlike GOOG. Otherwise, its going to be lights out in the short term. I shorted the stock today and made a nice gain so I picked up Puts and Calls and will buy more on Monday and/or Tuesday. The selling was pretty solid on heavy volume the past couple of week, so if they beat, I am confident the short covering will be extensive. Here are my current option trades:
These expire tomorrow, so I need a good gap down first then a nice rally. I plan on selling the puts at the open and going long more calls on any strength off the first 15 minutes of trading.
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