AAPL Trades

5/16/13 - Finally, some buyers stepped in when AAPL made a DIRECT HIT on my Bear 180 T2 target...as usual, my analytics are SPOT ON!

When I saw that, I loaded up on all my fishing plays and banked some HUGE gains today!

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5/15/13 - Wow, markets take off, GOOG breaks above $900 and AAPL gets dumped? Very peculiar; however, the bulk of the drop today was due to a popular hedge fund manager announced they are OUT OF AAPL. That news brought AAPL down to the 21MA as I predicted and it almost hit T2! I sold at $425.00. I expected a bounce today and got whacked so my Naked Puts are taking a beating right now, but I have a month, so I am just sitting on them ready to take delivery of AAPL if it keeps dropping.

I jumped on some Lotto 450 calls today and I plan on fishing for some more White Whale Calls tomorrow.

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AAPL dropped right into $444 today and slipped under to close at $443.86. I am ready to close out my Bear 180 play if it trades to $445.00 in pre market tomorrow.

My fishing order on the June Naked puts was hit and I am now long the Naked puts. I am more than happy to take ownership of AAPL stock so let's see how this one plays out.

I also bought the $450 Lotto Calls and will be looking for AAPL to rebound the rest of the week. I may be early, but with the markets continuing to drive higher, I am hopeful AAPL will bounce here. I will follow the Calls close and take profits if AAPL does not get back over the SGB at $450.

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5/13/13 - Last weeks chart turned into a SGB!!! This has been proven to be a SHORT signal for AAPL!

However, the last two SGB's resulted in much higher prices, so we need to be cautious now because we know AAPL has a 50 BILLION dollar share buy back in progress and that means this stock will be systematically bought at technical levels. It will be very difficult to make big gains with options, so I recommend you only buy ITM options or just sell premium spreads. For me, I will fish for my entry prices 55% blow the current ask so I can get better fill and have the implied volatility work for me instead of against me.

AAPL had a quiet day holding onto the 89MA on the daily chart. We have reached T1 on the Bear 180 play and if the selling kicks in, I expect a drop back to the 21MA. I do not expect to get to T2 so I will take profits at the 21 if I get them. I have a profit stop in at $460.00

If AAPL does move higher off this test of the 89MA, then get ready for $480 - $500 in the future. I do not think it can get there this week, but anything can happen. I would be a seller of Bull Put Spreads if AAPL holds $450 tomorrow; otherwise, I am still looking for $444 to be tested.

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5/9/13 - Today was the dividend payout and AAPL was basically quiet most of the trading day. Tomorrow will be the sign to look for. If AAPL does not get back over $465.00 I think we are in for some profit taking back to $444. I shorted yesterday off my Bear 180 with a stop in at $466.00. I almost got down to T1 today so if AAPL does head lower, I am putting my stop at T1 and looking for $444.00 as I do not think it will drop to T2; on the other hand, if AAPL takes off tomorrow, then the race is on for $500!

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5/7/13 - Took profits on Mini-calls. Looking to short 100 shares tomorrow for the Bear 180 with a profit target at T1 or better ONLY if AAPL stays under $460.

I did not get filled on my WW trades so I am cancelling them and will see how AAPL trades into Thurs for a Friday fishing trip.

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5/6/13 - The next couple of days should keep some buy pressure going as AAPL nears it's quarterly Ex dividend pay out on 5/9/13. As I have said in previous commentary, this stock is back on the radar and with AAPL buying back $60 billion in shares, there will be NO big sell off in this stock for some time into the future. It can have dips, which is expected, but any and all dips will be bought with enthusiasm, so I am going to start fishing for calls and puts as the stock moves around now that it has reached T3 on the Bull 180 chart. I am going fishing for some cheap put entries starting tomorrow. I have standing orders in for $450 and $460 MayWk2 puts at $0.10 cents. I believe this stock will take a break once the Ex-dividend date has been reached so I am hopeful it will make modest profit taking pull back—once that happens, then I will fish for calls. Tomorrow is the 13th day in the current Bear 180 setup, and when we get the next red bar, then I expect AAPL to only pull back to T2.

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5/3/13 - Big market rally day and AAPL stalls giving us another SGB in 11 trading days. Next week will be the test if AAPL can take out the 89MA. If the stock moves down, I am shorting my Bear 180 play. I made a very nice profit on the 420 calls! Looking over the daily and weekly charts, what we have are in the final moves of a multi Bull 180 run, so next week is going to be interesting.

Looking over the current Bull 180 in progress, we can see AAPL is getting very close to T3 and should find resistance any day now. I suspect any rise in the price next week will be stopped by the 21MA on the weekly around $455.

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5/2/13 - My Bear 180 stopped out. I will wait to see if AAPL falls back under $444 tomorrow and get in again. It's looking like AAPL will attempt to hit $460 if the markets take off tomorrow.

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5/1/13 - The earnings euphoria might be wearing off for the rest of this week, but with the dividend coming, I think AAPL will just keep finding buyers on any dips. We currently have a nice Bear 180 in play so if you get short, be sure to stick to a strict stop and take profits at T1 or T2 because I really do not think AAPL will fall to T3. Because opinion has shifted on AAPL to bullish bias, I will start fishing for lotto trades each week because I know that I will catch a few pull back days that pop a nice rebound rally.

On the horizon, GOOG will be releasing a new phone in the future and Google glass which will have impact on AAPL as competition heats up, but that is what makes for great trading opportunities so BRING IT!

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4/30/13 - As I predicted...AAPL rises to $444.00 before pulling back. I did not get a big enough dip this morning so my Lotto plays failed to get filled. I will adjust and try again. What I did do was place a Vertical Bear Call spread anticipating a pull back tomorrow; however, we could get another May Day rally and AAPL could easily head to $450 so if that does happen, then I will put on a $440 Put Butterfly.

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4/29/13 - AAPL is BACK and now the support is $420 with the next target at $444. With the next dividend payout coming on 5/9/13 there should be continued buying pressure, so any dips you should get some calls. I am putting in orders 89% below the closing prices of 1 OTM, 1 ATM, 1 ITM strike prices tomorrow to see if I can get picked up for a bargain price.

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4/26/13 - All my butterfly spreads expired worthless but my White Whale trade has more than paid for all my losses so I am not concerned. I will keep looking for more trade opportunities to make all that money back. Now that earnings are out and AAPL has a massive buy back, this should prop up the stock and any pull backs will be short lived so buy the dips and sell the rallies. As I said below, I think the current SGB could be the one that does not reverse the stock. I will stick to that bias until AAPL takes out the ORC.

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4/25/13 - I scalped another trade on the $420 calls today and now I am short the AprWk4 $400 puts for tomorrow. If AAPL moves higher tomorrow morning, I will add some more in anticipation of a drop back to $400 or lower. Today AAPL put in another SGB and so far that has been a 100% SHORT signal. Maybe this time it will be the opposite since it was preceded by an open red candle ORC.

If AAPL does move higher and holds over $416 then I will buy a MayWk1 call to test the upside and also but a Bull Put Spread to collect some rent.

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AAPL is down under $400 in pre market!!! Just what I was hoping to see. I will be placing my orders for the $410, $415 and 420 strikes with the anticipation this pullback will wear off and AAPL will catch a bid and rally back to yesterday's after hours high of $430. Looking for prices UNDER $1.00 hope to get filled in the .05 - .10 cent range on some too.

If the stock rallies up early today, I will also buy some $380 - 390 Wk4 and puts if I can get any of those for less than $1.00. That is where the 200MA is which is the next major support for AAPL where the stock should bounce back up from. Remember, AAPL announced an increase in their stock BUY BACK so that will keep it from diving in price once the initial move this week has played out.

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4/23/13 - AAPL beats estimates by a small margin, but gross margins shrank. When trading resumed everything appeared to be going gangbusters as the stock made a move to $430. Once the conference call started, the buyers headed for the exits and now it's getting crushed back down to $400. THIS IS THE MAKINGS OF A WHITE WHALE TRADE TOMORROW!!!!!!!!

The movement in AAPL is subjective to interpretation of the fund managers that buy and sell in millions of shares. Even though AAPL reported a “good” quarter, they showed lower projected revenue in the future—the company's gross margin shrank to 37.5 percent compared to 47.4 percent a year earlier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-earnings-beat-forecasts-company-210540870.html

Apple (AAPL) shares surged in after-hours trading after it beat earnings forecasts and doubled the amount of cash it will return to shareholders. However, its outlook fell short of expectations. Apple reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $10.09 a share on revenue of $43.60 billion versus $12.30 a share on $39.19 billion a year earlier.

Analysts had expected the tech giant to report earnings excluding items of $10.00 per share on revenue of $42.33 billion, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters.

When stocks only meet or slightly beat the “estimate” that is not necessarily a good thing. Surprise beats of earnings estimates, split announcements, dividends etc., is the key to sustained higher prices the next day. That is why I prefer puts over earnings because even slightly bad news can cause a stock to drop 10% or more the next day.

Even though AAPL beat estimates and also increased its dividend 15 percent to $3.05 a share; and said it will expand its share repurchase program to $60 billion from the $10 billion level announced last year and that is most likely being viewed (by analysts and pundits) as an act of desperation to prop up the stocks share price—too much too late.

All stocks are priced on future earnings not past, so when a stock only meets or slightly beats, that is already priced in on the future. Billion dollar fund managers have to move large capital; and that takes time to load up on shares, but for AAPL, they have been dumping it for several months; the price action in after hours confirms there is NO BIG MONEY ready to step on the buy button and that is why the stock is selling of right now—this can change by tomorrow.

The good news is that AAPL rallied showing us the target resistance; and now that it is selling off in after hours, we have a chance to pick up the the 425 calls for a White Whale trade. We want to pick a strike price inside the movement of tonight’s action so we have the best chance of being ITM if big money investors decide this news is a buying opportunity and lifts the stock back to $430 or higher by Friday.

On the other hand, if the stock gaps up in the morning, then the $390 puts are the target in anticipation the rest of the big money investors decide this stock is DOA and dumps it the rest of the week.

I have started doing Butterfly spreads because the risk is so low compared to the reward; however, the stock has to hit your target zone to make profits, and so far, both of my Butterfly spreads are not looking like they will make any profits.

I am going fishing tomorrow for a White Whale trade and hope that AAPL dips in the morning testing $400, then takers off back to $430 by the end of the week; so I am looking to get in on the $420 or 425’s, and hopefully I can pick them up for less than $1.00 per contract.

If AAPL gaps up, then I will try for the $380 or $390 puts if I can get them for $1 or less.

If you are looking for a better odds play to make some profits, then consider selling spreads outside the expected moves and try to collect premium others pay to speculate a large move—the risk is capped but so is the reward.

Profits Up!

The donFranko

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That puts AAPL potentially at $428 or $378, so the lotto trade strike for the best opportunity of being ITM tomorrow would be the 425 Calls and/or the $380 puts

As you can see, they are quite EXPENSIVE so if you did a straddle then your break even would be:

This is just too much expense for my liking; however, we have the rest of the week for this to work out. Since it's widely expected they will miss, I feel the low end is pretty much already priced in so I am going to do a Put Butterfly at the expected move because that is where the 200MA is sitting at $380.00

I am going to speculate on the 440 and 455 call side because if AAPL surprises and/or announces something new, the shorts will cover and UP we go.

Tomorrow I will fish for the White Whale trade opportunity after I see what the reaction to the earnings is.

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4/22/13 - AAPL attempted to surface above $400 but slipped back under in anticipation of tomorrow earnings release. NFLX blew the doors off and exploded in after hours trading but that did give any rise to AAPL. It is widely expected that AAPL will report another miss so if they do beat, and make a huge announcement like another special dividend or product, this stock will catch on fire again so be ready.

Now if they miss, that is expected, so most likely the stock will drop the expected move unless it's a really bad miss and forward projections. There are so many ways to trade this stock so you have to decide on how you want to approach your risk.

I plan on doing both a call and put butterfly as well as DOTM Iron Condor and then I will speculate on some standard calls and puts. For the following day I will have my White Whale order standing ready once I see how the stock reacts in post market and pre market trading.

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4/20/13 - The USS Apple Sub is still in dive mode. My $400 Butterfly pegged its full profit target when AAPL topped out at $399.47 so I closed it and locked in those profits. Unfortunately the rest of my trades did not do as well. Next week is the big earnings day for AAPL and I am confident there will be a big move the next day.

I was watching the price action in AAPL and managed my Butterfly trade. I also did some day trades and made some more profits; however, my lotto trades from

Going forward, I am still placing some Lotto trades on Thursdays, but I will start fishing for dips and gaps up in the morning session with standing orders one to two strikes under the previous days close.

My goal is to catch a cheap option trade and turn that into a massive winning trade if the stock makes a large move by the end of the trading day. See the GOOG commentary.

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The trading today was a steady stream of selling pressure but when AAPL broke down under $400, it did not freefall indicating we are near a bottom or the big sellers are now out of the stock—that is good news if it turns out to be true!

With earnings coming next week, all eyes will be on this stock with great anticipation. The consensus is they will miss and since the stock has plunged $40 in the past week, there may not be that big of a move next week. Those $400 puts banked for a second time today hitting a massive high of $11.45...WOW.

Tomorrow I am hoping AAPL makes a move back to $400 because I am testing out a Butterfly spread that I placed at the close. If AAPL pegs $400 then this Butterfly will pay me out $450.00; otherwise, I lose the $74.00 I spent. Not a bad risk reward ratio. If this works out, I will start adding more of these to my current plays.

The charts show the next probably target will be the 200MA on the weekly if AAPL does not get back over $400 before earnings (a major psychological price). Now if earnings are indeed a bust, the next major support is $325.00

If you count the red bars on the weekly chart from the beginning of the downturn you will see AAPL is currently in its 20th down week indicating we have 1 more down week to go. There have been a total of 10 up weeks brining the total to 30 weeks of disastrous selling. Using the Fibonacci sequence, we have 1 more week of selling and 4 more weeks of downside; however, next week is the 21st week and we have earnings coming out which have a way of changing everything, so get ready for the next measured move.

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4/17/13 - BAM! Did you get in this morning at the breakdown? Sure hope so. If not, there will be another massive winner coming rest assured and I will find it for you!

If you jumped on these puts yesterday then you BANKED but even today was an awesome trade!!

I jumped on some Calls and more puts for the rest of the weeks in anticipation of a move off the GOOG earnings tomorrow.

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4/16/13 - AAPL still testing that big time support again today and so far it held putting in a decent +6.39 rise. The stock still needs to get over the 8MA and most likely will be quiet this week until GOOG earnings. I suspect the GOOG earnings will move AAPL around in support or sympathy so you may want to start some mini calls like I have. If AAPL does break down under $419 I am ready to get on some puts as well as selling some Bear Call Spreads.

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4/15/13 - Nothing boring about AAPL today. The Bull 180 completely failed but I took profits on Friday. Apple did a dead stop at the last gasp of support so if we get a bounce in the market tomorrow, I suspect AAPL will head back up. I bought a couple of Mini Calls and will be ready to jump on some regular calls if we get the rebound tomorrow. If AAPL breaks $419 there should be a pretty strong initial drop so I am picking up some $400 puts if AAPL does not open under $419; and fails the first 15 minutes of any upward movement tomorrow.

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4/13/13 - Another boring day in AAPL but the fireworks are about to begin with earnings coming up on the 22nd. The 8ma on the weekly stopped AAPL for the second time and that makes it tough for me to get long but I know that when AAPL does make a move over this it will most likely gap over it so I am going to pick up a couple of the May13 450 calls because this stock will test the 21MA on a rebound, so I want to have enough time for it to get there. I took a small profit on my B180 trade and will look for the next B180 setup in the future.

The daily chart has a consolidation pattern that must hold the 8MA or this stock is vulnerable to a sharp decline and if they miss earnings it's going to be a big move in my opinion. The high in the last down trending channel and the low is the measured move from the double bottom low (up to -50 points or $370.00) that you can base your option strikes on. If AAPL beats, then the 89MA is your first target to the upside. As this week starts out, I will be looking to enter some weekly mini contracts for a hopeful earnings run, but will not get my full lotto plays on until 4/22/13.

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4/11/13 - Lackluster day that started out to the downside. The late morning rally lost momentum and now the stock has close with an open red bar doji I have not seen for a long time. I am looking for AAPL to attempt a run to $440 but the weekly chart indicates the 8ma proving to be strong resistance. Tomorrow will be a pivotal day for the future of AAPL trading. I attempted some puts this morning and took a hit so I added some calls anticipating a rally tomorrow. If AAPL fails to make a move higher, I will jump back on some puts. I sold my weekly mini-calls today for a nice profit and bought some Lotto calls for tomorrow.

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4/10/13 - Cancel crash as AAPL took off today on very strong volume confirming the Bull180 is back in action. Target one was take out yesterday and now we are looking for target 2. I placed my stop at target 1.

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4/8/13- The Bull180 is trying to start up again, so this time I just bought a mini-contract to test the waters before I jump in with bigger capital. AAPL needs to stay above $420 which is a psychological level for many technical traders.

Applying my Bear 180 formula to AAPL gives me these targets if AAPL fails the Bull 180 Setup.

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4/3/13 - Down we go is the call today. Only saving grace now will be an explosive employment report and broad market rally. That might not even do it for AAPL. This stock is getting despised by investors; and if things get ugly tomorrow, then AAPL WILL go down! I bought 1 APRWK1 420 put today and will add more tomorrow if AAPL heads lower.—Cancel B180.

I am ready to get in tomorrow with a Lotto play and I will also pick up some APRWk2 OTM options in the prevailing direction of the stock tomorrow by the close.

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4/3/13 - Another attempt to kick off a B180 and it failed for a second day. This time I took my profits off the table on the stock and will keep looking for an options play for Friday. The nice thing is AAPL held up with a positive close even with the markets taking a big sell off. If we get a rebound tomorrow in the markets, AAPL should take off and move $8-15 bucks higher by Friday.

4/2/13 - We had the bears against the ropes today but not down for the count...at least not yet anyway. As I suggested, AAPL is forming a very nice Bull 180 and if you jumped in today then you may be feeling some pain because the rally failed to sustain itself in the afternoon session. We are not stopped out yet, but today's failure definitely indicates big money is still exiting this stock; and if AAPL does not reverse back tot he upside tomorrow; then you can start looking for $400 to best the next support test. I jumped on another weekly mini in the morning and when I looked at my position in the afternoon I was really bummed out. Not to worry, I will just keep looking for another opportunity to get some more and average out at a profit.

Tomorrow should be a pivot day for AAPL and if the selling continues, then I am definitely looking for it to be a capitulation day. If this happens, we want to get long on the next green opening daily bar as the full Bull 180 will be set up. What we have to be cautious of is if the selling is supported by a downturn in all of the markets too. That could cause AAPL to slip into another multi-day drop putting us into the next B180 setup 8 bars down. Remember, the Bull 180 is a pattern trade and the stop MUST be kept. It's a very tough pattern to trade options with because you have to overcome the spread and implied volatility so do not buy large contract loads. I prefer to just trade the stock with these, but since the drop has been very large the ATR is $8 - $20 which gives us enough potential movement to make options plays profitable.

If AAPL does make the move be sure to take lock in a profits stop on stock plays and take profits on options plays if you buy OTM because any pull back will wipe out your profits faster than you made them.

As you can see, the stock started out strong and failed to keep moving higher. The OTM options were up almost 100% and actually ended the day lower than they started. This is why you have to take profits when trading options based on the Bull 180 pattern—at least take 50% off to lock in a break even should the pattern fail.

This Bull 180 pattern is failing so unless AAPL gaps up in the morning, I will be stopped out. If the stock manages to close in the green tomorrow, I will get long again at $430 with another strict stop $1.00 under today's low.

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4/1/13 - April sucker punched today and AAPL is NOT fooling around. My mini option contract I bought on Thursday was whacked today collapsing 70% with a -3.11% move in the stock—this is a classic example why you want to be a "seller" of premium vs. a buyer.

I was going to double down when AAPL hung around $433.00, but I suspected the selling was going to continue into the close—and I was right. I will wait to see what it does tomorrow before I add more contracts to average into this trade. The nice thing is the capital commitment is so small I can experiment before I jump in with bigger money.

Looking over the charts, I am getting very excited as AAPL is setting up for a very powerful Bull 180 reversal! Each of the last 4 red bars has been getting larger with AAPL putting in very nice wide range bar today.

I am hoping tomorrow is the blowout with the biggest volume of the group and we get a nice GREEN entry opportunity on Wed. If AAPL closes off at the lows of it range tomorrow, I will buy a couple more Mini calls and wait for the next day to go for a larger position.

So far the range is at $40.00 with the ATR at $8.00 and a 55% retracement of the range can be up to a $22.00 move! Because AAPL is getting whacked right now. the call options are priced with a lot less implied volatility. This allows us to buy a little further OTM so we can get more contracts and make more profits because once this stock snaps back, the market makers will pack in premium on those OTM strikes.

AAPL is still in a very bearish correction mode, so this trade will be risky on the long side. I would not commit large capital on this stock until it gets back over $444.00.

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3/28/13 - Can I call it or can I call it. AAPL dropped right down to $444 today and finally moved under it closing right at the 21MA on the daily chart.) on the day. I bought a mini AprWk1 440 call today just to see how they work with 3 days of time decay because I think AAPL will bounce off the 21MA next week.

I jumped on some puts and calls today making some pretty good day trade profits.

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3/27/13 - What happened to AAPL today? I suspect it was quarterly portfolio shuffling along with a couple of negative news stories. Once the stock gapped down, I closed my long position immediately and will wait for next week to start any new positions. The daily chart is confirms yet again the solid green bar is a definite short signal. If this sell off has legs into next week, I would be looking for AAPL to definitely test $444.00. Also, if you look at the chart more closely, you will see this stock is putting in very similar patterns indicating AAPL could very well be heading down for the count until earnings and if they miss, well, AAPL will be pulverized into applesauce for the foreseeable future. If AAPL returns to the channel, you can anticipate a blowout drop under $400 and down to the 200MA where plenty of buyers are anxiously waiting.

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3/26/13 - Making moves higher since my last comments; however, yesterday put in a slight shooting start Doji that was also a solid green bar and with today's gap and crap, it appears AAPL is selling off as the DOW continues to make new all time highs. What is about to cross the line is the SPX and if it holds, then AAPL WILL head higher with a rising tide. If the SPX fails to hold then it's a 80% sure bet AAPL will pull back and test the recent upswing. Without any big time announcements from AAPL I think this stock is just going to bounce around in a 10% range for a long time. That is PERFECT for us as savvy options traders because we can do Straddle and Strangles or Iron Condors and collect premium!!!

3/19/13 - Gap and crap today on AAPL. What started to be a nice move higher lost all it's steam most of the day. The stock did manage to put on some rebounding in the final hour of trading; and closed just over VWAP on the 15min chart indicating to me it wants to move higher. I did not get long any options this morning when it failed the first 15 minute bar. Today's action was most likely based on the anniversary of their first dividend announcement and since there was not another one, the stock pulled back. I am sure AAPL has something up their sleeves, but that remains to be seen. Of course with looming news, it makes it hard to get short so I am just going to go with some Bull Put Spreads and OTM calls. If AAPL fails to hold $444 then I will get short.

The daily chart shows that AAPL stopped right at gap down support from Jan and if it cannot get moving over $460 it is vulnerable to selling back to $420.

The weekly chart shows AAPL is still in correction mode and if this week turns into a red bar the selling will kick in.

3/15/13 - Nice day today with AAPL as it gapped up and powered higher all day! My Naked Puts expired with a 100% profit and my long stock position is looking good for now. What seems like CODE to me is the high of the day at $444.23. If you remember a couple of months back, I commented about AAPL making changes around interesting price prints. In the past few months, AAPL has posted prices like: $555 on 1/2/13 , 666 on 9/28/12, 655.55 on 10/4/12 etc. Every time I have seen AAPL post unusual prices, the stock makes measured moves shortly after. So, does the high of $444 mean we found the bottom? Well that depends on your interpretation. If you are from the Orient, the number 4 is UNLUCKY and means DEATH, so that may be the case with $444 as the high today. Maybe you could say its code that the Samsung phone is DOA and AAPL is back on the upswing. Of course only time will tell going forward, but you want to remember this price today and get SHORT if AAPL falls back under it or stays under it next week.

On another note, tomorrow the CBOE will start trading mini-options on AAPL, GOOG, GLD, AMZN and SPDR S&P 500. You can now trade options on AAPL in lots of 10 shares. This will add more liquidity and that means more action in either direction the stock is trading. I suspect that tomorrow will be a continuation day from Friday's stellar rally, and now you can jump in immediately at the open with mini options for a cheap price and once things are heading your way, add more regular options if you like.

3/14/13 - Tomorrow is March expiration and I suspect that something is up with AAPL and its getting ready to make a move. Question is, what direction and how much of a move can you anticipate? My bias is cautiously bullish and that is where I have made my plays. I bought the stock and have naked puts fully willing to take ownership of more shares. My plan is to make a Lotto trade tomorrow in the direction the stock shows after the first 15 minutes of trading. I would prefer to see a gap up or down and if that gap holds I will get long the opposite side of that gap looking for the measured move for the day. The SPX will most definitely take out it's all time high at the open, and I suspect it's going to just keep right on going higher. Now that the DOW has closed up for 10 consecutive days you have to note that it's actually been moving higher since the last major down day for 13 days—which is a very strong Fibonacci REVERSAL point. As for the weekly chart, it's been 11 weeks since the last large down day so we can still be in for two more weeks of upside. Because the Dow closed on the high of its range today, I am still cautious and would not commit large capital going forward. Then again, I am a "gambler" and if you can't shove your chips in when the cards are strong, you better play the penny slots...lol.

Looking over AAPL's charts you would say it's a definite SHORT. Both the daily and weekly chart look U.G.L.Y! All moving averages are clearly pointing down and if the markets turn for the worse, investors are almost assured this stock will drop under $400. The weekly chart shows the 200MA at approximately $380 and that is where fund manger are most likely waiting to jump on with big money.

This last weeks trading had some news events, rumors and speculation that AAPL will have a new special dividend, stock buy back, acquisition of maybe NFLX, and new products in the future. Well, that is all future compelling news and that is what makes stocks rise...the hopeful unknown.

With a couple of downgrades that really did not effect the stock, AAPL is showing strong resilient behavior to move higher. So, how do you play this one without getting hurt? You buy OTM under a 10% move and add to it when you start to see a profit.

Long puts 1 strike OTM and long calls 4 strikes OTM. I will overweight my calls and use the puts as my hedge. Once the stock shows its clear direction over $435 or under $425 then I will do an OTM spread too in the direction of the stock.

NOTE: AAPL is in the 8th (Fibonacci) day of sideways trading on the daily chart.

3/12/13 - AAPL is downgraded again, no wait, it's down again, but hey it was just up, then again this could just be the warm up...all I know is I am getting see-sic—monkey see, monkey do.

As more analysts jump on, I am getting more bullish because I know from past experience the crowds and analysts are always on the wrong side of their opinion; and when it seems nobody wants this stock, that is when the smart money puts their bets on; and when it proves to be right, they go all in. There is definitely some news coming from AAPL management, and typically, they announce things in April. The current rumors are a special dividend or possible large stock buy back. Who knows, they may even go for another split; just get ready to rumble, because once they do make an announcement, we should see 2 - 3 days of upside—I will start accumulating weekly options 10% out of the money.

Start with contract size you are 100% prepared to lose and add more each week, because one this stocks finds a bid, you WILL make a profit.

3/11/13 - Downgrade resulted in an upgrade on the stocks price. So many times I have heard nefarious downgrade/upgrade calls on stocks only to see them do the exact opposite. If you ask me, I think these analysts are full of BS and looking to MANIPULATE a stock with their learned calls to: buy, sell, hold, neutral, strong sell, strong buy, and on and on. Sure they could be right over a longer time line, but more often than not, I see stocks make reversal moves typically in a day to a week of the announcements. Well, today was one of those days when AAPL quickly headed down in early trading and then a news story hits that there could be a special dividend and that was all she wrote. I suspect that downgrade was pure bullpucky meant to do nothing more than get the stock dumped this morning so these "insider analysts" could LOAD UP.—just too much of a coincidence for me.

When I heard this downgrade, I immediately bought the Mar13 445 calls and made a tidy profit today for my compounder portfolio. I also sold the Apr13 400 naked puts to collect some premium fully ready to take ownership if AAPL were to head lower, but now that AAPL has kicked that downgrade out the window, we may be in for a nice rally back to the good old days...all aboard!

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3/10/13 - The AAPL train is still at the station loading passengers for the next ride. The challenges is do you want to take the chance or wait to jump on the caboose? That is what makes trading so exciting and/or frustrating. This stock likes to make moves and that is what option traders need because premium in these options are stacked against you. This is a very hard stock to trade so you just have to pick your spots and invest with confidence. Because the premium packed into the options pricing is so volatile, it's very difficult to put in stops as you will have them taken out way more than you want them to. The best way to make money in this stock is to sell premium, but if you have a small account, that is very hard to do because AAPL options are priced in $5 increments. This means that you still have a lot of risk if the spreads do not work out, so you just cannot get greedy and play spreads close to the money. With the stock still in correction mode, you must be willing to accept the risk of sharp drops when trading Bull Put Spreads. I would not do Bear Call Spreads because when this stock makes a move to the upside, it will be quick and potentially large. My strategy is to focus on Bull Put Spreads and speculate on OTM calls. I will start this week with a Naked Put with 1 contract fully ready to take ownership of the shares.

Currently AAPL is trading UNDER the 8 and 20MA on the daily charts and any failure from here can easily send this stock down to the 200MA on the weekly charts at $370.00. Does that mean you just jump on puts tomorrow if AAPL opens down? Sure, but you better be willing to lose any money you put on that trade because the premium packed in the weekly options is quite expensive so I would buy ITM puts and take profits with trailing stops once you have them. You will get stopped out if they are too close, so keep them at 55% below the price you paid for the options once you have profits.

If AAPL opens up and fails at $435.00 then get the puts started and if it opens down, wait for the first 15 minute bar and trade ITM puts.

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3/5/13 - The stock of the century is back on my radar screen. I have been waiting for AAPL to show signs of life again and today it finally rolled higher with the markets. Typically when a stock gets beat down you want to see it countertrend higher when the markets are going lower, that way, when the markets give support, the stock moves up in a bigger way. Well, any move higher with AAPL on market support is a good sign for me to consider a long position. However, I am very cautious because this stock is still in correction mode territory until it proves a bottom is in place. That takes more than a single up day, it takes a weeks worth of sideways trading support.

For the short-term, AAPL is capable of making some big moves higher if the shorts fear today's action is the bottom so get ready for some action.

My plans for this week are to see how the stock trades in pre-market and so long as it holds above the pre-market high, then I will get long stock with a strict stop just under the pre-market low. If I happen to get stopped out then I will sell 1 Mar13 400 Naked put ready to take ownership again of the stock.

On Friday morning, I will be watching for a hopeful gap and then I will look for the option strike opposite that gap that dips down to .05 cents or less for a Friday Lotto Trade.

Entry is Key...Exit is Everything! TM

Entry is Key...Exit is Everything! ^TM