LOTTO PLAYS COMMENTARY FOR GOOG 

 

LAST UPDATE: 1/21/11

 

 

1/21/11 - Google banked some nice earnings and even launched some $40 bucks in post market, however, there was a shake up in management and it soon killed the excitement and thus, the continued rise in the stock price today. This play did not work out this time. That's the way it goes, but we know for a FACT there WILL be a whopper of a winning trade in the future.

 

 

 

 

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1/20/11 - Earnings are today after the close so I am putting on a straddle with Jan options that expire tomorrow. If they knock it out of the park, the stock typically rises 10% or more so I am going with the 680's and if they miss I am looking for a drop as low at $560 so I am taking a shot with $600 puts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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We did get a nice move down but it was not enough for this lotto play. If you jumped on some puts closer to the money yesterday, you certainly received a massive reward today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Google earnings fair as profits rise 23%, but CEO said he would not participate in future conference calls. They also said they will continue to spend searching for the best talent. This had investors dumping shares in after hours trading. Our call play was looking really good had they made their numbers but tomorrow they will expire worthless; however, if there is any price left in them at the open I am taking it. Not too confident the puts will make any ground so this round of Lotto Plays did not come in for us but rest assured, there will be a whopper of a winner in the future!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Here we go, with our Lotto Play on Google. I am going to do a straddle this time because I suspect this particular earnings could have some fireworks. Since GOOG had some interesting news with the possible China pullout and this is the first quarter report for their Android cellular phone. We are heading into the summer doldrums, so this is typically the last push for Google. This time a year ago, GOOG was trading around $400, and after their earnings release (see chart below) they did not do much in the way of price movement.

 

There was a bit of volatility heading into the beginning of summer, but once the doldrums were over, Google put on a very nice uptrend heading back to it's all time highs. With the overall markets being at 52 week high's, we could see a nice sell off once all the earnings for this quarter are out. Of course time will tell us what will happen, but for me I am speculating they will have a great quarter and hoping the announce a stock split too!—wouldn't that be grand....like maybe a hundred grand ;-)

Of course, we do these Lotto plays with no regard to actually picking a winner. We do them for the surprise effect and the massive profits just one can bring.

Let's go fishing!

The options I am going with are:

Remember, these expire on Friday.

 

 

 

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3/26/10 - GOOG is about to start its usual earnings run. The next release is scheduled for Thursday April 14th the day before April Options Expiration. Recently, Google has some price hiccups due to news they may be pulling out of China. Although  this could be damaging, I think they will more likely cut a deal with China and continue a modified business model there. After all, their competition is going to be there, and if they want to maintain their "king of the hill" status, they have to keep the brand in front of as many eyeballs as they can. Ok, with that said, I believe GOOG could make a run at the all time high of $747. This earnings release will be a highly anticipated one with their new smart phone in full swing. If they are indeed gaining market share, this will bring a rush of buyers into the stock prepping it to take out the $620 range and filling the gap breakdown back in Jan of this year. Now if Google were to say, announce a stock split, the skies the limit with this stock. If they disappoint, the first major support is the 100 day moving average around $455.00

 

Below is a monthly chart of Google showing the typical 13 bar moves down from the all time high and then the ride back up. As you can see, we are in a profit taking

 

 

 

 

Profits Up!

The donFranko

 

 

 

 

 

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