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WEDNESDAY
– 4/21/21 6:40 AM PST – UPDATES
Lotto Trade Ideas for NFLX
Greetings Lotto Traders!
I was filled on the
following:
Sold my Put Spread
Filled on my White Whale
Trade lookin for a minimum 300% ROI on the 550 CALLS.
Holding on the 470 PUTS
Profits UP!
===========================================================================================
TUESDAY
– 4/20/21 11:50 AM PST – UPDATES
Lotto Trade Ideas for NFLX
Greetings Lotto Traders!
NFLX beats earnings
estimates but disappoints on subscriber growth by a wide
margin compared to the previous quarter:
Netflix
shares fell as much as 11% in after-hours trading after
reporting a large miss in subscriber numbers in its
first-quarter earnings report.
The
streaming giant on Tuesday reported 3.98 million net new
paid subscribers in the first quarter, down from 8.5
million reported in the previous quarter and well below
the 6 million the company predicted three months ago. In
the same quarter a year ago, Netflix reported the
addition of a record 15.77 million paid subscribers
(https://
www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-adds-more-than-15-million-new-subscribers-stock-rockets-higher-2020-04-21).
So, depending on how the
markets are trading at the open, NFLX could find buyers
at current levels and possibly get squeezed back to the
SGB zone at $550.
My plan is to put in a
White Whale fishing order on the 550 CALL strike for
$1.00 and see if I can get filled; maybe catch a short
squeeze back up to $550 by expiration.
On the other hand, if the
stock continues to sell off and opens below $500, then I
will be looking to take profits on the PUT spread;
however, if you do not take profits on the spread, then
you need NFLX to close at $505 or lower by Friday to
lock in the full value of the spread—since I have the
470 PUTS I will take what I can get out of the spread.
Now if the the stock holds
ground at current levels, and does not make enough of a
move either way, then I will salvage what I can on the
spread and work on selling more credit spreads over the
next couple of months to recoup as much of the
expenditures from these trades.
There are a lot more
earnings releases coming up and there is sure to be some
BIG winners too!
Profits UP!
Frank
The don-Franko
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TUESDAY
– 4/20/21 10:37 AM PST – NEW LOTTO
TRADE IDEAS for NFLX
Greetings Lotto Traders!
Today
is NFLX earnings release (after the close) and we could
see some good movement because there is a good sized SGB
ZONE on the daily chart, and the stock has wicked down
today under the zone.
Last quarter, I had a nice
540% WINNER on the CALL side with a sold $93 move the
next day!
The MMM is +/- 35.00, and
NFLX is more than capable of moving 2x that, so if the
stock gets whacked, wild card Lotto Trade PUTS at 455 or
higher (since we will have a couple days to expiration
and the markets are already in a selling mode) and I
want some Bear Put Spreads at or just above the expected
MMM move.
Now if they surpirse
again, then it could easily move 2x the MMM higher, and
could also be the catalyst to get the markets back on
track for higher ground, so I want to have CALL SPREADS
strikes no further out than the MMM range and wild card
CALLS at 2x MMM or lower.
When stocks drop or pop
post earnings, they tend to gravitate to a whole or half
number, and with NFLX currently trading around $450 (the
half), you can target your strikes at the whole (500 or
600) when speculating the move—especially when 2X the
MMM is in that range, then you have a lot of potential
the stock can make it to the whole/half price points.
Of course, there is always
the possibility it does not make any move, so you can
NEVER bet the farm on these Lotto Trades!—the strategy
is best traded in the aggregate (over a years time) with
compounding of contract loads AFTER winning Lotto
Trades!
Here are my trade Ideas:
Spreads:
BUY 515 PUT / SELL 505
PUT (1.85 DEBIT) MAX profit is $819.00 (440%) if
NFLX drops below 505.00 by expiration.
BUY 590 CALL / SELL 600
CALL APR 23
expiration for (1.50 DEBIT) MAX profit is $850 (567%) if
NFLX rises to $600 or higher by expiration
Wild Card Lotto Trades at
2x the MMM:
BUY 470 PUT APR 23
expiration for: 0.55 MAX
BUY 620 CALL APR 23
expiration for: $1.40 or lower
Here are my fills:
(note: trade only the
size/direction you are prepared to lose 100% of the
money invested)
The other way to play
earnings is wait until tomorrow and fish for White Whale
trades after you see the reaction in post and pre
markets.
Any questions, review the
Lotto Trade training module or email me.
Profits UP!
Frank
thedonFranko
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SATURDAY
– 1/30/21 3:30 PM PST –
What a crazy
week of trading we have had, and, unfortunately, this
round of earnings Lotto Trades are going to fail except
for SBUX due to
the massive short squeezes that caused major sell off's
on all the top stocks. Well, those are now at a bargain
in comparison and should start to see some upward
momentum. Once I see the get back over their SGB zones,
then I will start selling some credit spreads to get
back the losses on the Lotto Trades.
===================================================================================================================================
FRIDAY
– 1/29/21 7:30 AM PST –
What a crazy
week of trading we have had, and, unfortunately, this
round of earnings Lotto Trades are going to fail due to
the massive short squeezes that caused major sell off's in
stocks as fund managers/investors had to most likely raise capital to cover and/or chase stocks
like: GME, AMC etc.
Also, the news from the Fed on
Wednesday was not very motivating, and PBJ has been a
busy beaver playing King-of-the-Hill with his
unprecedented executive orders!
All this
crazy action, combined with a Full Moon cycle, has
created a massive storm of confusion installing fear
with investors that has practically KILLED off the long
bias momentum as many stocks I am looking at are all
about to break down through their bullish channels.
As much as it
pains me to see multiple losing Lotto Trades at the same
time, I know
that in the aggregate, we will catch more than enough to
wipe out ALL the losing trades and advance our accounts.
Although we
had some great earnings reports from AAPL, MSFT, FB and
TSLA, they all sold off initially, and appear to be
losing some more ground as we close out the first month
of 2021 trading.
As you can see, they ALL had SGB's in play and until
those are taken out, the bias is Bearish strategies;
however, I do expect some good week-to-week Lotto Trade
action, so I will be keeping a close eye on all of these
stocks and placing orders on Thur/Fri.
Once we start to get a bounce move over the SGB zones,
then I will be selling credit spreads to get back
the money I spent on the earnings trades.
Remember: Lotto Trades are "speculation" and most
of them fail and cost money to start, but when the
winners come (and they do) you will wipe out ALL losses
over time. If you do not have the capital to expend,
then stick to the Stimulus-Compounder strategy and soon
you will have plenty of speculation capital to lay
multiple Lotto Trade orders and catch some Moby Dick 5+
figure winners!!
Have a great weekend!
Profits UP!
Frank
===================================================================================================================================
TUESDAY
– 1/26/21 11:30 PM PST –
I was filled
today on everything but the TSLA CALL spread and will
get that on tomorrow.
MSFT had a
great quarter and the stock launched nearly 1.5x the
MMM, so if this hold up tomorrow, the spread should be
close to full value and I will take my profits on this
one. On the other hand, SBUX is a DUD but we have until
Friday to maybe salvage something from the trades.
SBUX did beat estimates
and the stock was sold off but not even close to the MMM
expectation so it will most likely result in a zero sum
gain... will just need to sell some credit in the coming
months to get the money back.
The real excitement was GME when Elon Musk tweeted
something in after hours about the stock and the shorts
were absolutely decimated as the stock squeezed up to
$248.90... OMG—this is probably NOT over yet and we
could very well see this stock go even higher tomorrow.
GameStop shares,
already on a historic tear, spiked in after-hours
trading after a one-word tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
"Gamestonk!!" Musk
tweeted Tuesday afternoon, linking to the Reddit threat
r/WallStreetBets.
We will see, and if you are trading it, ONLY put in what
you are 100% willing to lose, because eventually (if not
tomorrow), they will wipe out the BULLS even faster than
they are wiping out the BEARS.
==================================================================================================================================
TUESDAY
– 1/26/21 2:30 AM PST –
BIG
earnings releases this week with AAPL, FB, TSLA, MCD and
there is sure to be a BIG mover in one of them. Also,
GOOGLE is setting up for a very big move with triple
SGB's the past three trading sessions.
When trading Lotto Trades at earnings, we are
SPECULATING hoping for the parabolic move like we just
had on NFLX last week. Many times these trades end up
going bust, so you MUST have a high tolerance to draw
down and PROFITS capital to stay in the game long enough
to catch and then start compounding!
Typically, I prefer to get in on Lotto Trades for less
than $1.00 per contract, but with the current IV Pumps
in all stocks, that will be more difficult; therefore,
you may have to consider spreads to get you in the game
under $1.00 per contract—although spreads do cap your
upside, they offer you an opportunity to get in much
cheaper.
The
challenge is what strike do you sell to assure the best
odds of cashing out at the full value? This is where I
say, "let the DAILY chart SGB zones be your guide." I
always want my sold strike just below for CALLS and at
or just above for PUTS on the closest previous SGB zone.
That way, when a stock hits that zone, you are at the
full value of the spread and can maximize your profit
potential.
Here are my
trade ideas for this week earnings plays:
MSFT -
Last quarter, they beat but the stock still sold off and
then took off post earnings. This time, the stock is at
all-time-highs, so upside is unknown, and since the MMM
is +/- 9.23, your CALL strikes should be no further than
$15.00 above in case the stock goes parabolic and hits
the $250 psychological lever and the PUTS strikes the
SGB zones at $215.00 or higher.
Here are the BULL CALL and BEAR PUT Spread examples:
BUY 242.50
CALL x SELL 250
CALL
$75.00 Debit
Profit up to $675.00 (900%) if MSFT surprise beats and
hits the psychological $250 level.
BUY 217.50
PUT
x SELL 210
PUT
$76.00 Debit
Profit up to $674.00 (880%) if MSFT falls to the SGB
zone.
=====================================================================================================
SBUX -
Investors appear to
have some caffeine jitters with SBUX as the stock has
been trending sideways in a triggered squeeze for the
past couple of weeks. If they disappoint, all signals
indicate a BIG drop is eminent. The likely first target
is the SGB zone at $95.00. However, I think it will take
a surprise beat to launch the stock to all-time-highs so
I am going with a wild card Lotto Trade CALL on this
one.
BUY 110.00
CALL
Debit $60.00
Profit UNLIMITED
BUY 100.00
PUT
Debit $87.00
Profit UNLIMITED
OR
BUY 99.50
PUT
x SELL 95
PUT
$54.00 Debit
Profit up to $396 (730%) if SBUX falls 2X MMM WHICH IS
THE SGB ZONE.
=====================================================================================================
HERE ARE MY THOUGHTS ON
WEDNESDAY EARNINGS.
NOTE: THE SPREADS ARE
EXAMPLES AND WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE ADJUSTED ON
WEDNESDAY.
AAPL -
The
stock broke out today closing as a DSW at new
all-time-highs. Expectations are high and analysts are
most likely looking for growth numbers on the company's
services vs. iPhone sales. For many years, it was
believed they were a one-trick-pony only selling
equipment; however, the company reinvented itself and
moved aggressively into services, entertainment and
maybe even EV and Smart Homes in the coming years;
especially since the new PBJ is gung-ho for ZERO
emissions and willing to spend BILLIONS to get that ball
rolling. The skies the limit and since the company is
the largest market cap in the stock market, EVERY
investment fund, manager and anybody trading wants a
piece of the APPL pie. Any dips have always been bought,
so I have not doubt that even if they disappoint, the
stock has a permanent bid under it. In fact, today, the
markets took a tumble after PBJ spoke and AAPL snapped
right back moving in a $10 range! WOW now that is some
BULLISH conviction.
The
daily chart has a triggered squeeze to the upside and
the 200MA is clearly trending higher with converging
8/21 MA's, so all signs say UP is the path of least
resistance; however, with today's Dragonfly DOJI
candle, you have to be ready for an upset and buy some
wild card PUTS too.
Twice the MMM puts the
stock at $130 which happens to be the SGB zone so that
is where my PUT strikes will be waiting.
BUY 148.00
CALL x SELL 155.00
CALL
$161.00 Debit (IV is pumped up and CALLS are expensive)
Profit up to $539. (330%) if AAPL rises twice the MMM
and hits the $155 Fibonacci level.
BUY 217.50
PUT
x SELL 210
PUT
$45.00 Debit
Profit up to $955. (2,100%) if AAPL drops twice
the MMM.
=====================================================================================================
FB
-
The
all-time-high on FB is 304.67 set back in 8/2020 and put
in a SGB two days later that was tested on 11/5
confirming that was indeed the top for FB. Today the
stock dipped with the mini-market crash and was quickly
bought and closed at a Dragonfly DOJI EXACTLY in both a
weekly and daily SGB zone. The last quarter, FB beat
estimates by a wide margin but the stock barely moved
higher and ended up selling down a couple days so BIG
money could get in cheaper. I have always had difficulty
trading FB at earnings and I am sure this time will be
no different. The weekly chart has been in a long term
triggered squeeze with the stock basically trading in a
sideways range for most of it. If they beat again by a
higher margin, then I anticipate the stock will easily
test all-time-highs so my strikes will be at $310. If
they disappoint, the drop cold be a dramatic drop to the
200MA at $250. Because FB tends to be fickle at
earnings, you may want to consider buying an extra week
of time.
IV is pumped up so there are NO cheap Lotto Trades here
and if you have a small account... sit this one out
because my win ratio with FB is pretty LOW.
Also, we may get an opportunity post earnings with a
White Whale trade on Friday.
BUY 292.50
CALL x SELL 302.50.00
CALL
$200.00 Debit
Profit up to $800.00 (400%) if FB rises 1.5x the
MMM and hits the $305 all-time-highs.
OR — the Wild Card
CALL BUTTERFLY
$190.00.00 Debit
Profit up to $4,810.00 (2,500%) if FB rises 2x the
MMM and hits NEW all-time-highs.
BUY 255 / 250 / 245
PUT
BUTTERFLY
$220.00 Debit
(10-Contracts)
Profit up to
$4,780.00 (2,100%) if FB drops 2x the MMM>
OR
BUY 265
PUT
x SELL 257.50
PUT
BUY $188.00 Debit
Profit up to $562.00 (298%) if FB drops the MMM.
=====================================================================================================
TSLA -
ALWAYS
the wild card stock and VERY
expensive to play... even for Lotto Trades, but when you
catch on this monster, you EAT like a KING! and with
PBJ's proclamations for 100% EV government spending, you
can bet that TSLA will play a HUGE role in getting a lot
(if not most) of that money spend.
The
stock topped out at $900 today and then it was slammed
with the markets down to $840, but recovered only half
that drop by the close indicating a possible buyers
fatigue.
There is just no way to give any solid technical
analysis on this stock, and you just have to spend ONLY
what you are 100% willing to lose if you trade it at
earnings. If they surprise, then I do not see any
reason for the stock not to hit that $1,000
psychological barrier; which actually puts the stock
price at $5,000 per share pre-split... BONKERS right?—in
fact, they split this stock 5:1, and in less than 3
months, it more than Doubles????
Where can this stock go is anybody's guess, but looking
at the WEEKLY chart, we have some clues with previous
SGB zones from the DAILY chart before the
split.
The current DAILY
chart shows a SGB zone at $850 and then 683; which
happens to be at the T4 of my Bear 180 reversal if the
stock gets whacked.
NOTE: THIS STOCK IS TOO EXPENSIVE FOR SMALL ACCOUNTS AND
SHOULD NOT BE TRADED DUE TO THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF 100%
LOSS.
THESE SPREADS ARE SUGGESTED AND DEPENDS ON TOMORROW
WHICH WILL ADJUST THE STRIKES HIGHER OR LOWER TO
MAINTAIN THE THE BUY PRICE RANGES.
BUY 950
CALL x SELL 1,000.00
CALL
$780.00 Debit (IV is pumped up and CALLS are EXTREMELY
expensive)
Profit up to $4,220.00 (540%) if TSLA hits the $1,000
psychological level
BUY 800
PUT
x SELL 765
PUT
$538.00 Debit
Profit up to $2962.00 (550%) if TSLA drops 1.5x
the MMM.
=============================================================================================================================
THURSDAY
– 1/21/21 4:30 PM PST –
I
closed my first LOTTO
TRADE for 2021 with a HUGE ProfitsUP!!!
If you did
the spread, you made a nice 400-500% ROI but if you did
just the CALLS those made over 1,300% ROI...WOW!!!
Not to worry
if you missed out on that one because there will be
plenty more and once you start compounding your contract
loads, then you can "layer" strikes and entry prices and
always have some contracts in the game to catch ALL the
potential!!
I did the 540 / 555 CALL SPREAD
If you just bought the CALLS then you caught White Whale
profits!!!
===================================================================================================================================
Updated: 1/19/21 1:15 PM PST
NFLX has a BIG earnings
release and stock is up nicely in after hours. If this
holds up tomorrow, we should see a nice WIN with the
Bull Call Spread Lotto Trade.
Of course, the PUTS will
be worthless, but once we cash in on the Call Spread, I
will assess the over p/l and sell some credit spreads
going forward to get it all back over time.
Next week is several HOT
stocks and so the Lotto trade journey continues!
Updated: 1/19/21 10:30 AM PST
Here are my fills for
NFLX:
These are 100%
SPECULATION and typically expire worth less several
times until we catch so limit your size and capital
expenditure.
Below are my NFLX Lotto
Trades; however, the cost to enter is much higher than
usual so either do SPREADS or wait until tomorrow and
see if we can catch a White Whale opportunity.
NOTE:
DO NOT FOLLOW MY SIZE unless you have a lot of capital
to tolerate initial draw downs. You should start with
ONE (1) contract loads and compound with profits.
Updated:
1/18/21 9:30 PM PST
Get ready to catch some LOTTO TRADES! as earnings season
kicks off for 2021. Up first will be NFLX tomorrow and
the stock is poised to make some moves, but could be
stifled by the presidential inauguration the next day, so
control your size before and lets see what happens
after.
Next week will be AAPL, AMZN, TSLA and there is
sure to be some great opportunities there too.
This year, I am applying the compounding methods from
the Stimulus-Compounder strategy to my Lotto Trades, and
when we catch some winners, the contracts are going to
build rapidly as the profits go parabolic!
Get
ready to have some 6-Figure days in 2021!$$!
Here is the Daily Chart for NFLX and it looks like the
stock has topped out. They missed estimates last
quarter, and with a potential economy startup coming,
this stock has to post well above estimates this time or
I think we see a sell-the-news event. The first likely
stop is the SGB zone at 440 and potentially even lower.
On the other hand, if they beat, surprise or give the
Bulls a big carrot to gnaw on, the upside is 540-560.
Since we are trading this tomorrow, I recommend doing
SPREADS to get in a lot cheaper.
The weekly chart paints a different picture with a
triggered Squeeze indicating a larger move in either
direction is imminent.
Last quarter the company missed estimates and dropped
about $40 in after hours trading.
Before earnings the stock had TWO SGB's and those proved
to be excellent SHORT setup opportunities.
This time there is another SGB in play but they are DOJI
candles so I expect some reaction for sure.
At 10% drop will put the stock directly in the big SGB
zone and that is where you want your strikes to be at or
slightly above.
My target strikes:
Premiums are pumped up so Spreads can get you in
cheaper:
Bearish Bias:
PUTS: 440/410 Bear Put Spread. Jan 22 Expiration
Wild Card PUTS 415/400 Bear Put Spread. Jan 22
Expiration
Bullish Bias:
CALLS: 540 and/or 540/555 Bull Call Spread. Jan 22
Expiration
Profits UP!
Frank
The don Franko
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