NFLX Commentary

12/11/16 - The move is on for December and rumors still out there for a buyout of this stock. Will it happen before 2016 is over? I hardly think so, but you never know so I am going to just keep buying my Lotto Calls up to 15% OTM; however, this time I am going to buy some JanWk1 expiration since we are winding up for 2016 and most likely there will be very little movement in NFLX the rest of the year without a buyout announcement. This stock did make a nice move off the SGB bottom and if it can hold onto $120 then I will be day trading some long shares and under $118 I will look at some shorts; however, with a buyout looming, I will not be shorting very many shares. If we do get a good drop back to the SGB zone, then I will look at selling some Naked Puts and Put spreads.

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11/24/16 - The SGB became support; however, this week we had two DOJI SGB's and that tells me NFLX is ready for a measured move as we get going into December trading. There is always a buyout speculation but I am not excepting anything to be announced until we know how the Trump administration is going to deal with repatriation. Still, I plan to always have my Lotto calls in place and then day trade around the stocks movements to pay off my calls plays and add more because if that event happens, I want to wake up to a solid high 6-figure profit! I am going to buy a couple 112 puts tomorrow if NFLX opens lower or fails to hold over $118.50 in anticipation these SGB's will kick in next week.

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11/17/16 - Interesting week as NFLX is holding onto the support buyers from Monday and did not complete the DSW; however, Tuesday was a SGB, so we have a potential larger move down to a full gap fill. News today that AMZN is launching a global streaming business caused a little bit of a dip in NFLX and ended the day as a perfect DOJI inside the SGB wick range. I have been chasing NFLX for a long time as a buyout candidate and I still believe it will happen in 2017 but I know the power of SGB's as short signals so my bias is about change to bearish if this SGB is taken out; however, I will continue to fish for Lotto calls because the cheaper NFLX price becomes the more likely it is a buyout candidate. The weekly chart is now becoming a DSW setup so get ready for some action next week.

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11/13/16 - Tune it and watch because the next 4 years are going to be potentially VERY bullish for NFLX and others. Initial reactions to the Trump upset was a panic sell on anything tech, but you know that will be short lived if he actually does (when it comes to taxes) what he promised in his campaign and debates. What I am particularly looking for is the corporate tax cuts and repatriation of capital. You have to believe if he makes those moves, then trillions of dollars are coming back and NFLX is definitely on the table to be bought out so KEEP FISHING for lotto calls and lets see if we get paid off in the coming months.

The current daily chart finished the week with multiple DOJI's and we are looking like a strong DOJI Sandwich (DSW) setup will start tomorrow. If NFLX does open down, then I expect the move to be equal to Thursday's drop putting the stock around $105 which is going to intersect with the 89MA and a SGB zone. If we do not get the drop, then a move over $117 that holds for at least 15 minutes is a long for me.

I will continue to fish for wild card lotto trades 15-20% OTM on NFLX every week and I will work other trades and sell premium to finance them. My goal is go make enough profits scalping and premium selling to build contract loads to 100 or more because if this stock gets a buyout, I want to make a fortune on it.

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11/6/16 - The resulting direction was to the downside as investors begin to lighten their bullish enthusiasm on a buyout in NFLX's future; however, the selling is hardly a run-for-the-exits and volume has been very light so I am still looking for long entry points until NFLX can drop below 55% ($111.34) of the post earnings rally. If we get a post election rally, I am confident the NFLX will be a leader of the pack so I am buying some Lotto calls for this weeks election volatility play. Once NFLX can make the move over $129 I am still looking to sell put premium. I did not sell any Bear Call Spreads last week but I will be picking up some puts tomorrow.

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10/30/16 - Sideways trading all week has NFLX ready for the next move. As time marches on, buyout speculators can lose heart and that is opportunity for us. With the company doing well in subscriber growth and content development, these two things will always be wildcards for investors' to place their bets on. Looking over the daily chart we have a total of 5 topping tails with Friday being a tombstone DOJI of sorts. So, if NFLX moves over $129 I will be there selling put premium; and a move under $124.50 that sticks I will be selling some bear call credit spreads and continue fishing for Lotto calls up to 20% OTM.

Looking over the weekly chart, we have a nice post earnings $26+ point move and if it is to hold on any pull back, then it must hold above a 55% retracement or $111.40 which is also a previous high on the weekly charts back 4/15/16. The all time high is still at $133.27 and if you recall the stock split 7:1 last year so that high was actually $932.89 post split and if the stock does continue higher then my upside target is $142.89 and my low side is $73.13.

Remember to keep fishing for weekly WW trades on Thurs/Fri as NFLX will continue to give us some great volatility in the coming months.

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10/24/16 - What a JACKPOT on the 120 calls by the end of trading of Friday if you held onto it all the way...congratulations!!

And if you were doing some White Whale fishing on Friday like I suggested, then you hooked a Moby Dick when the news hit that ATT (T) was buying TWX. This caused a short squeeze in NFLX driving up the stock all day over $127.50 per share$$!!$$

This is to illustrate to you the possibilities if you were to focus on my WW strategy on Friday expiration days. The challenge is these BIG ONES do not come along very often, so you have to be on the hunt and lay orders every Friday on stocks like NFLX, FB, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, CMG because you never know when we could hook another Moby Dick—keep fishing my trading friends...you know I am!

As for the future of NFLX, it appears they are on the way to new all time highs with this very strong quarter and a still looming buyout possibility. We may just get an announcement this week from AAPL or GOOGL or?? so upside pressure is still on but will fade quickly if nothing is announced in the next couple of days—probably not likely now that the stock is well over $100 per share. If you decide to fade this stock, you MUST have Lotto Calls in place because you never know what can happen and you do not want to miss out on a potential trade that will set you straight for year(s).

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10/17/16 - A surprise beat and guidance higher launched the stock over 20% in post market trading. No mention of buyouts on the call and with the great quarter, it appears the price will be too steep now for a takeover at this time but you never know what a company like DIS or AAPL is willing to do—NFLX is becoming a juggernaut in the on-demand-media world. If we get some continuation tomorrow, we just may see NFLX attempt an attack at all time highs of $133...wow...that would be HUGE for the Lotto trades. During the call I heard an analyst belabor the question of subscriber price increases and when the grandfather discounts will subside. The answers giving by the management were met with some buying in after our as investors must interrupt that customers will have NO problem paying up for quality entertainment—heck you can't go out and see a movie now for less than $25.00 with concessions so why wouldn't you pay up a few bucks more for on-demand 24/7?—times they are a cha-chinging for NFLX and that means HIGHER stock prices in their future.

As for the rest of this week, no buyout gives rise to profit taking with such a huge move so I will be fishing in the morning for WW trades and see what I can catch!

I will be doing some White Whale fishing in the morning around my T-Levels depending on what I see in pre-market. If NFLX is higher than the $121.28 bubble high I will fish for the 113 Puts and if it is around T2 then I will fish for the 120 - 125 call strikes. Remember, if you are not filled in the first 5 minutes of trading you cancel the order.

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10/16/16 - Tomorrow is the big day for NFLX shareholders as the company is sent to report earnings after the bell. Will they surprise or announce a buyout? Friday trading saw a nice push higher into the close and some large call option contracts (4,000 Oct21 107C) traded but appears to be Covered Calls since they are a BuyWrite trade. There is heavy bullish sentiment at 95k calls to 52k puts so a miss will be a big disappointment and the SGB zone below should easily be taken out. As for upside, the MMM is currently +/- $10 and if they do not surprise, I think we will see the move in that range; however, if there is a buyout announced, we could see a very large move over $120 to ??. Ok, so I was filled on my Lotto plays Friday and will be looking to add some more puts tomorrow before the close of trading. With the election coming next month, I do not see any reason for investors to put large capital to work on any positive earnings that are not a complete surprise and any upset in political circles will have a much larger negative impact so having some puts in play is a necessity.

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10/13/16 - Earnings are Monday after the bell which is exciting but also a bit of a bummer for Lotto trades because the cost will be a lot higher than I prefer to pay; however, we are dealing with NFLX and it can really move big this time around. The buyout speculation has diminished the past few days which could be the quiet before the storm—I am hoping I wake up to a huge winner tomorrow, but most likely that will not be the case so I am preparing for my trades into next week.

Today the stock triggered a Bull 180, but that is a Level 1 at best with earnings Monday. Looking over the chart, I see the pull back last week had the stock trading into the multi SGB zone and we now have the last topping SGB back on 5/26/16 to take out at the $104 price level. Until the stock can do that, aggressive longs are not recommended. If there is no buyout announced tomorrow and they disappoint on Monday, we could see a very nice drop back to the previous lows under $90 so I am doing to have some puts on for sure.

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10/09/16 - No buyout out yet, but the chatter and speculation continues to give lift to NFLX. Will it happen? I certainly think it is a high probability this company will be bought in the future and I certainly hope it happens this week or next, but if it does not, I will continue to buy weekly OTM puts up to the $125 strike price.

If you were watching the news wires on Friday then you heard that the Reed Hastings the CEO of NFLX made some negative comments about China growth at a conference. This instantly caused the stock to plunge 5% in pre-market trading; however, with merger madness going on, investors ignored, what should have been total devastation all day, and bought the stock moving it back up to the previous days closing price.

Ok, it is all well and good to be the ultimate optimist on NFLX (and I certainly have been for months now), but we know investors are a fickle bunch and fund managers are a controlling bunch, so if the stock was plunged to $100.06 in pre-market; who do you think caused the reversal and subsequent squeeze up all day? You have to know that the individual investors out there (even if they were all in unison) would never be able to drive a stock up like this; so it was a "controlled" group that was doing it—hedge funds and algorithm trading firms.

What we have to figure out from Friday's action is if there is conviction in this control group or were they manipulating price so they could get out; because if there is NO merger/buyout announced; then you can bet your bottom dollar this stock is going to go a lot lower than $100; especially if CEO Reed Hastings keeps talking about growth issues oversees. It seems he likes to create volatility in the stock because he has made many statements like this in the past that have cratered the stock.

My game plan is to continue to buy Lotto Calls on dips down to the last SGB zone at $97.50 and if there is no announcement tomorrow, then I will be looking to short shares and buying some $95 puts too.

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9/30/16 - Chatter that DIS may bid up to $130 for NFLX so I am on Lotto Calls for next week.

9/11/16 - Big sell off Friday market wide which took NFLX down from a triple touch of the 200MA. There is still the possibility of a buyout in their future, but that will most likely not be until 2016 after the elections are over. If the markets do not rebound in the next couple of days, then I am expecting a lot more selling to kick in and that will of course take NFLX lower. The next SGB zone is down to $93.55 so there is where I will be fishing for some long plays and if it fails then I will day trade some shorts. I will maintain my week-to-week Lotto buys up to 15% OTM now that the stock has shown weakness at the 200MA because puts will get the pumped up IV and calls will get cheaper so we can get closer to the money.

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8/21/16 - Still no buyout but interesting movement since my last comments on NFLX. This past week, the stock has been trading at the SGB zone highs holding onto the 8MA but as time marches forward and there is now buyout announced, the stock become more vulnerable to some profit taking so if NFLX falls into the SGB zone, I will do some day trading short strategies and will maintain my Lotto Calls up to 20% OTM.

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8/7/16 - News on Friday that BABA is putting together a buyout offer for NFLX caused a quick spike and then a sold move all day for the stock. I have been looking for a buyout on NFLX for a while now, but from BABA?? During Fast Baloney halftime report, they did not even mention the news so it could be just a Friday piker play; however, it will be interesting to see what they offer, but I am not thinking NFLX would sell to them not to mention the massive restrictions China has on content delivery etc. Also, for an alleged buyout offer, the move was not very much all things considered. If there is no official offer on the table this week, we will most likely see the stock pull back, but look for that as opportunity to get on some more Lotto Calls because there is definitely some interest in NFLX and maybe AAPL or CMCSA tries to jump in front of BABA. As long as NFLX holds over the double SGB zone on the daily chart I will trade bullish strategies and under it I will look at some bearish; however, I will continue to be long Lotto Calls up to 20% OTM week-to-week.

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7/31/16 - As the week played out on the but insider buy news, NFLX has begun to show signs of weakness but do not let that fool you, just keep buying those OTM Lotto Calls my trading friends. As for short term trades, I will just continue to fish for DoubleUp! trades and sell some put premium on dips for now.

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7/25/16 - Looking like the post earnings selling has subsided. News out that NFLX insider Director Jay Hoag has bought 600k shares at $86.43 per share. Maybe he knows they are going to bet bought out....hmmmmm? Keep your DOTM Lotto trades on and we may wake up to a nice 6-Figure day in the near future.

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7/19/16 - BIG miss, lower revenue and subscribers leaving produced a trifecta dumping of the stock post earnings. I hope you figured out the typo on the puts play and bought those July Wk4 86 puts or at least go the Aug Wk1 put on. The calls were a total bust but now we are looking for the potential buyout in the future as the stock has gotten a lot cheaper and will most likely slide lower in the coming months unless there is so very good news in the future. My strategy is to continue fishing for Lotto Calls every week at 20-25% OTM and if the stock keeps dropping lower, I will go as much at 30% depending on what strike I can get for $0.05 or lower. Tomorrow will be a critical point in the stocks future and I will be trading short looking for a test of the post earnings low at $81.84. Below that, the next major support is the weekly 200MA around $67 - $70. NFLX has been down this road many many times in its history, but now this exodus of subscribers for a couple of bucks a month is a tell that NFLX is losing it's luster with their customers and many competitors are chipping away at market share. The bears are definitely out in force saying it's "over" for the streaming giant and they are on the slow growth now with uncertainty in Europe etc. My bias has changed to Neutral but optimistic for a potential buyout in the future.

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7/17/16 - Tomorrow is NFLX after the close and this should be a significant release as to the longer term trend for this stock. There is still speculation out there that they are a takeover candidate with with recent moves made by Comcast, they may very well be the one to buy NFLX vs AAPL or maybe even AMZN. We will never really know if or when so we just have to always have some DOTM Lotto calls on for that future event. In the interim, we want to trade what the market shows us as the best possible trend and right now it has been very mixed with regards to NFLX.

If they meet the expectation of analysts, then the move higher will be muted and probably not even make it past the expected MMM of $9.77. This will make premium sellers very happy since the current IV is pumped up at 102.82% but for this stock, I have seen it much higher in the past. The biggest concern for this stock is how much subscriber growth can they have in Europe and now the other 300 plus countries they are streaming to. The U.S. is pretty much saturated in the eyes of analysts so it will take continued success in original programming and some future increases in the membership.

The company has already increased membership fees in the last quarter, so this quarter will show if there was a negative impact. There are plenty of Bearish pundits out there and some are saying the stock will easily get cut in half, so buying some longer term Puts are not a bad bet. Now if they do miss and have lost subscribers, that will definitely dive the stock and make it MORE ATTRACTIVE for a buyout.

So, for me, I am continuing with my 20% OTM Lotto Calls and will pick ups some Swing Trade Puts tomorrow. After earnings are out, I will definitely be looking for a White Whale trade the next day.

Option stats have sentiment Bullish almost 2:1 on Calls vs. Puts and on Friday I saw some large contracts bought for Jul 105 and Aug/Sep.

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7/10/16 - As we kick off earnings season, I expect investors will bid up NFLX on any good news with earnings only two weeks out. Last week the stock tested the bottom of my SGB zone three times and so there is where my battle lines are draw. Above 94 is long and strong and below $93 I switch to short side trading; however, I will always have my Lotto calls on.

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7/7/16 - No buyout announced but news hit that Comcast will allow NFLX to stream on their cable box and that lifted the stock for a short term day trade. There were upgrades and downgrades which has investors confused so NFLX pulled back to the SGB zone. After tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll is released, and if NFLX drops under the SGB zone, then I will do some shorting with shares and continue to buy Lotto calls up to 20% OTM for next week.

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7/2/16 - What a week we have had since the Brexit drop when investors were caught off guard. Once the news was digested, the bargain hunters and shorts were forced to cover and we saw a huge rally in NFLX begin. Then on Thursday, LGF announced they were buying STRZA for 4.4 Billion and that caused a huge rally in NFLX as speculators (me being one of them) are now looking for NFLX to be bought out by maybe AAPL? My plan is to keep buying DOTM Lotto Calls (20% or less) on NFLX for the next 52 weeks in anticipation we do get a bid like MSFT did on LNKD.

Currently the options 20% out are less than $0.10, so I will keep buying some Tuesday and fishing for lower prices on Wed - Fri for next weeks (Jul 8) expiration. Typically these announcements happen on "Merger Monday" but I suspect that a NFLX buyout would be done on a Wed/Thu so the MM's that facilitate the deal can capitalize on weekly options. Of course this could never happen so you have to be willing to lose 100% of what you put in each week, but for me, I will be on this for the next 52 weeks. I will sell premium to finance it and also do some day trading on GE to make easy money to pay for my Lotto Calls—I plan on buying at least 100 and up to 500 contracts per week.

The interesting thing about the LGF deal is they own the hit show Orange is the New Black that is played on NFLX. This may have a negative impact next week once analysts digest the news as investors may fear that NFLX is going to LOSE dominance in the streaming field if LGF were to "pull" this show from NFLX. So, if there is no buyout deals in the near future, we may see some lower prices on NFLX after the next earnings release.

The daily chart has NFLX trading over the SGB zone so a move back into those SGB's is a short trigger (ONLY Day-to-Day) but that is extreme risk so if you do plan to short be sure to heavily overweight the Lotto Calls.

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6/27/16 - After a confirmed SGB zone drop, we get the Brexit-pummel to knock the lights out of NFLX and put it on the mat for the count. If you were shorting from the SGB zone, then you have made some HUGE gains. As for me, well, I have been working the stock to the long side bias in anticipation of a surprise merger/buyout, so that is where I have been and will continue to shoot for; however, the shooting lately has been in my feet.

Ok, so the Brexit news is out, the markets have reacted and NFLX is looking really weak so now you have to be thinking the buyout rumors can rally get going because the stock is getting cheaper as it falls. The weekly chart has a classic "M" pattern showing; with a completion around $80 (which is where I anticipated the stock could fall to), so if that fails to hold, I expect NFLX to start a drop-run to the 200MA especially if they show NO growth in European countries, (particularly in the UK/Britain) this earnings release; then a really big drop is in the House of NFLX Cards—the hidden caveat is when people are feeling down, they tend to cocoon and binge watch, so it may actually help NFLX.

There is some speculation that NFLX will cut a new content deal with CW which could spark a nice short covering rally in the near future. The short interest is growing with approximately 4.0 days to cover so when a stock gets around 5-7 days they tend to find support and shoot up. There has not been any big option buys lately , so I will be watching for Open Interest changes daily.

For now, I am going to continue to fish for cheap weekly Lotto Calls up to 20% OTM speculating they may get a buyout offer in the future. If the "M" pattern confirms around $80, then I will start some shorts and spreads. With earnings season about to begin, I am excited about the potential Lotto Trades we will have in stock strike NFLX this earnings season.

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6/15/16 - Nothing exciting from AAPL and WWDC so investors are back to usual bias on NFLX and today the FOMC cause a lat day drop taking everything down with it EXCEPT NFLX which actually closed slightly in the GREEN! This is a good sign and if we get a nice rally going the rest of this expiration week, we may get some good Lotto action going with NFLX.

The daily chart has a very interesting double SGB with a DOJI in the middle so I am expecting a very nice move to start any day now. With buyout speculation still out there, shorting shares is risky business so I will buy puts and only be long when I want to get shares on. I will continue to fish up to 20% OTM on Lotto calls every week. These SGB's are at the bottom of a nice sell off from the last one and typically that is the bullish signal so I am looking for a bounce into next week. If it turns into the usual Bearish trigger, then I want to get short term puts no further than 3% OTM.

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6/12/16 - NO buyout announced and investors gave up on the speculation and sold off the stock all week. This week is the AAPL WWDC and who knows, they may announce a merger with NFLX or a crushing blow with their own version of competition to NFLX with AppleTV. Industry news about cable companies making changes to programming choices may be a good thing for NFLX; however, investors dumped the stock in light of that and now the downside path to much lower prices is looking like the outcome. The stock dropped right into and through the SGB zone so this stock is a bearish bias until it gets back over $99.00.

Now that NFLX blew right through the 89MA, I am still fishing for Lotto calls week-to-week because I know this stock has great potential to surprise or get bought out. In the short term, I will fish for some credit spreads and maybe try some short shares looking for a sub $90 target on a continuation to the downside.

If AAPL delivers a crushing blow this week, we could see NFLX nosedive and the next major support is the 200MA on the weekly chart which is way down at $60.00-65.00 depending on how fast it can get there—that is a lot of pain for the Bulls so we need to do some put side Wild Card speculations.

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6/5/16 - Lack luster week of trading in the short week but certainly some excitement. NFLX could not get any momentum and pulled back but is holding above the 55% line from the previous weeks strong gains and that is what we want to see. If we do get some green started this week, then long plays are on and I am still looking for a future buyout of the company so I will just keep on adding in some Wild Card Lotto Calls. Overhead resistance at the 200MA on the daily chart produced a SGB so we have a bias to the downside for now since the stock failed to hold on Wed and has now dead stopped on the top of the previous larger SGB zone from 3/11/16. This stock is a wild card mover and shaker, so taking sides is always a gut tester and not for the fearful trader. You have to remember, the Lotto strategy is a marathon aggregate so keep investing in the low cost plays and one day in the future you WILL wake up to a HUGE profit!!

The daily chart SGB produced the result of a Bear 180, but it was a Level 1 at best, so now I am looking for a move back over $100 or a drop to the 89MA around $95.00 before I put on some more trades.

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5/30/16 - Per my last comments, if you bought that 89MA Bull 180 back on 5/21, then you are sitting very nicely in some strong profits with this impressive rally in the last half of May that has NFLX trading back over the century mark! News came out that they cut a content deal with DIS and continued rumors that maybe AAPL just buys the company has investors ramping up in speculation plays. Thursday the stock put in a potential Abandoned Baby SGB DOJI but I would be very cautious shorting. I am in some Lotto Calls speculating the company may just get bought out or benefit from another merger of TWX may be the media company AAPL will snap up. I will continue to buy dips on NFLX and sell premium.

With the current Bull 180 on the weekly chart in full momentum, I am looking for NFLX to reach T3 this week and maybe even explode higher on takeover news.

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5/1/16 - Is the selling over starting in May or will NFLX suffer from the potential "sell in May and go away" syndrome? So far the stock has found NO love with investors, but I see the beginnings of a Bull 180 setting up so I would like to see one more large red candle close the the size of the on on 4/19. If we get that followed by a green candle the next day, I will get aggressive on long term Naked Puts and buy some weekly calls no further out than 3%.

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4/24/16 - It is looking like the major selling is over, but NFLX is still vulnerable to market wide drops so caution on long plays is advised. If you want to get into longs, ALWAYS fish for lower prices and take profits until the stock can clear out the overhead SGB zone at $100.00. If the stock suffers more down side pressure, then I would be looking for a bounce at the 89MA or T4 on the weekly chart.

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4/18/16 - NFLX beats expectations, subscriber gains; however, revenue was a slight miss at 1.8B vs. 1.9B estimates. This slammed the stock over 13% in after hours, but most of that was recovered so we may get a nice rally going tomorrow if the stock can hold over $100.00. That AMZN news really killed the deal with NFLX and it is looking like we may not get enough of a move in the puts to pay off but we still have the entire week to see how things play out. If the stock fails to get back over $100 then I will be looking to short shares and buy some longer term puts if the stock does not hold onto T1.

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4/17/16 - NFLX has been on a very nice pre-earnings run and looks good for even more heights on a strong quarterly report or will it be the typical "sell-the-news" event. We are certainly going to find out after the bell tomorrow. The news has been mixed the past week with upgrades, price targets and the usual naysayers on the stocks lofty valuation price. You have to remember, this stock was split 7:1 which means it is currently trading at $780.57 in the minds of those types of analysts and investors. That means the stock could get seriously whacked on a bad report. The focus will be on foreign subscriber growth but not a concern this quarter since they only announced last quarter the massive expansion into multiple countries. It will take years before those countries are even up to speed with internet access so I think fund managers will be very interested in how the company is doing domestically in light of the recent price increase. Will they lose more customers than they gain?

I think the price increase is going to be well received and I expect some new content deals in the works too. My bias is still bullish but I will definitely have some puts on just in case. The stock closed above the T-3 level on the weekly Bull 180 so now we have the pivot point and targets. Upside $125.92 and downside $89.24. The MMM is currently at +/- 9.59 and if the stock dropped double that, then $92.00 is the likely target or the 89MA on the weekly chart.

Prime Video was previously offered as a value-add to Amazon's $99/year Prime membership, which offers free two-day shipping on products. Now, the retail giant is undercutting Netflix prices with plans to offer customers a separate purchase for $8.99/month, a dollar less than Netflix's recently raised price for its most popular plan.

Along with stand-alone video, Amazon is also offering full Prime membership on a monthly basis, rather than the annual payment. Customers can join in for $10.99/month with no annual commitment, meaning they can still save 25% by paying for the full year at once.

Hulu -- co-owned by Disney (NYSE:DIS), Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Fox (FOX, FOXA) -- offers its limited commercials plan for $7.99/month, and a no-commercials plan for $11.99/month.

This may add some pressure to NFLX tomorrow, but there is also rumors floating that the company is a possible takeover candidate by DIS; and since DIS is the co-owner of Hulu, well, that may just happen in NFLX's future.

Another thing to consider is the "pie-in-the-sky" valuation the stock trades at which is currently valued at 393x its 2015 earnings of $122.64m (p/e ratio) with a 1.8% net margin so, putting all that together, you have NFLX only earning 1.8% on all of its 2015 revenues as net profits. This is still a massive growth company which gives way to lofty valuation models, but if you get too filled up on that slice of pie, you may get very sick if the stock gets Jacked if the big funds pull out their investing thumbs.

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4/14/16 - Monday is the big day for NFLX and with the price increase, rumored buyouts and projections now they may be even bigger the cable TV by 1019 has this stock poised to explode higher next week. IV is now pumped up pretty good and I am sure it will just keep rising into Monday. The best strategy now is to fish for lower entry points tomorrow and on Monday we go for some Wild Card Lotto Puts and Calls. 20% OTM in both directions. I am expecting the stock to gap higher tomorrow but find resistance at a double SGB zone capping the action at $115 if it finds momentum.

On the weekly chart we have NFLX in a solid Bull 180 retracement and today it closed just over T3. This has been a very nice 10 week rally and there is still T4 up at $125.92. Typically when this stock runs this much into earnings and they are a big beat, it just keep right on going. Watching the quarterly chart, I can see NFLX just explode to new closing highs above T4 on a great quarter so will definitely have those Wild Card Lotto plays in place.

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4/12/16 - Bulls are winning as NFLX mad a sharp rebound today and closed above the 200MA. The coming price increase has no doubt enthused big fund managers and the buying stepped up. There are a few rumors circling that NFLX may be a bought by DIS in its future. That does have some merit since the two companies have a large content deal that started to play on demand this year. Now that the 200MA is being taken out, that will be the support going forward so I plan to keep my finger on the call trigger and also selling some Naked Puts and Spreads. All we need to do now is see it clear the overhead SGB zone at $107.81 - 110.10 and its on for a run to the all time highs.

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4/10/16 - Testing the resolve of the Bulls and Bears as NFLX decides how they will handle the 200MA. With a solid Bull 180 that has now retraced to just under T3 will give us an explosive move on great earnings and a nice solid drop on negative news. What is creating a potential perfect storm is the company will be raising prices again and that can have a negative impact on subscriber loss or maybe an extremely positive impact but we won't know this quarter so speculation is the name of the game. If the stock moves over the 200MA technical buyers will stop in and under it the stock is very vulnerable to big funds dropping out especially if this quarter shows a decline in subscribers. The play here is bias to the long side with Lotto Puts 20% under the 200MA or 85.00

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4/7/16 - What started to be a SGB short was cut short the next day when news and upgrades hit the wires creating a nice two-day move in the stock. Today the stock rose right to the 200MA before some technical profit taking kicked in, but I am expecting NFLX to keep moving higher beyond the 200MA into the earnings release. If they beat expectations it will be the subscriber growth and guidance that will lift or kill this stock. I maintain my bullish bias and will keep working trades in that direction. Of course I will have some puts in place at earnings too.

The weekly chart has been a perfect Bull 180 and with continued market support, I expect a test of T3 at or near $109.51. Any dips back to T2 at 99.34 and I am buying some more calls unless the news is negative.

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3/27/16 - NFLX has had very little movement for 4 weeks now and not much on the news front either. The current large SGB zone was tested and triggered my short entry. A move back over $100 will be viewed as very bullish and a move under the SGB a solid short with a profit taking target at the 89MA on the weekly chart around $84.00. I am still very bullish biased on NFLX so any dips to that 89MA and I get long strategies going. Earnings are expected on 4/18/16 so I will also be looking for a spark to start an earnings run in the next week or two.

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3/19/16 - The SGB zone turned bullish so now we have our short entry in place and we stick to longs. I am looking for a move to the 200/89 MA on the daily chart with a positive market this week as we head into the earnings season again. A move back to the SGB zone and I short shares but will look to buy calls on the cheap up to 3% OTM should that happen.

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3/13/16 - Tough week for NFLX ending Friday with a big SGB! This gives is the perfect pivot to trade off of going forward so move over $100 is a long and below $96 is a short. Upside is the 200/89 MA at $106 and down side is back to T1 on the current Bull 180 at $89.12. With the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, there should be some good movement in all the markets and NFLX will travel with the trend. Last week was the 5th up week from the Bull 180 and is now looking like a triggered Bear 180 since NFLX stalled at T3 and close right on it Friday as a SGB. I am still bullish biased on this stock so any shorts are with caution and taking profits quickly. As for the SGB on Friday, I will short shares under $95.89 and cover at T2 or $90.00-91.00. If I get filled, then my stop will be at 100.21.

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3/616 - Nice moves higher since my last comments. NFLX dead stopped at the big SGB zone back on 8/215/15 and that will be the test this week. If we start a move lower on Monday then shorting strategies are the way to go and we do not do aggressive longs until it can take out the entire zone so a move over $107.89 is the target; however, I am still looking at long plays above T2 (99.32) on the weekly chart. If the stock surges higher, the expected initial target is the 200MA at or near $105.21 which will also be converging with the 89MA on the daily chart.

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2/28/16 - Friday NFLX touched on T3 and pulled back closing the day as a SGB so we are a pivot point going forward. If the stock opens higher on Monday, then I will place my stops at Friday's low and if we continue to move higher after the first 15 minutes, then I will take profits if the stock makes it to the 200 MA on the daily chart.

If Friday's SGB results in a lower open, then I will look for short term shorts under $97.19; however, I am still biased to long plays for 2016 and will keep my DOTM calls in place week-to-week.

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2/21/16 - The Bull 180 was off to the races and then it fell short of T2 closing the week exactly on T1 on the weekly chart. We are still in a Bull 180 setup so the bias is still long plays for now. I am anticipating a move over T2 and then it has potential for the 200MA on the daily chart; otherwise, if we fail the current SGB on the daily chart then look out below.

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2/17/16 - Finally getting some movement in NFLX on this Bull 180. The stock blew right through T1 and is looking good for an attack of T2 tomorrow. If you have long shares then move the stop up and take some profits tomorrow if it does not hold over T2. The stock still has a couple SGB zones that will put upside pressure on it without any news catalyst to propel it higher. If there is any upset in the overall markets then NFLX will surely drop back quickly so I am going to start fishing on some puts as I am making profits on my longs.

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2/14/16 - NFLX is still holding ground on the Bull180 so we stick with longs for now.

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2/9/16 - Yesterday NFLX began to rise and today the weekly chart turned into a triggered Bull 180 so time to test some long shares and sell some premium. We still have the FOMC meetings to get through and that can certainly kill the momentum, but if its a positive event, then NFLX should continue up to the SGB zone at $102 or higher.

Choose your timeframe and sell at the T-levels represented. Strict stop at the bottom of this weeks green bar $79.89.

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2/7/16 - Friday was a sell it all day and NFLX was dropped over 7% with some acceleration into the end of the trading. This stock has been in a downward spiral for 9 weeks now and it has me a little bit perplexed, but when the big funds are in dump mode it matter not what anyone thinks because until they say enough is enough, this stock could just keep on dropping all the way to the weekly 200MA and that is down around $57.00. Now do I think it can get there? I certainly do but I am also aware that we are in a bit of a bear market at the moment so I am just backing off a lot on my aggressive trades and will just keep fishing no further than 3% OTM.

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2/4/16 - Still no upgrade buyers in sight but we may be near the bottom—and it could start tomorrow. I was stopped out of my long shares Bull180 play, but I have a buy stop in place at 92.55 if it rallies and the current weekly bar turns green again. This stock has been beaten down for 9 weeks now and I am looking for a bounce to start, but it still can drop below $85.00 so caution is the best play here. I will start with smaller size on my long plays and start to sell some premium if it dips under $85 or moves back over 92.55.

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2/2/16 - Another day of selling even after an upgrade? Hmmm, probably announced to sucker in buyers so the big fund manager at Piper Jaffray could DUMP their shares. We are about to get stooped out of the Bull180 on the weekly chart but if it turns green again I am right back in my long shares. When this selling is over, NFLX will be a nice runner once again and/or maybe just bought out by say AAPL or GOOGL since they are in a neck-n-neck battle for largest market cap companies.

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2/1/16 - A good start for Feb as NFLX took to the higher road. We started this week with a green bar and now the Bull 180 is in play with a stop at $88.00 and an upside initial target to the SGB zone at $102.00. Fast money talking heads think NFLX is a short at $100 and there is not enough momentum in the space to get it going. Rumors still kicking around that they may be bought up by AAPL but those were more likely piker announcements to day to get investors buying into big funds selling etc. If NFLX does not get back over today's high, then we could very well see this Bull 180 on both the daily and weekly charts fail; however, I am still a buyer of OTM Lotto calls and will mitigate with day trading tactics.

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1/28/16 - Stated the day green which triggered the Bull 180 so I am long with stops at 89.00. In after hours the stock slipped lower which is not a great sign but I am sticking with it and should I get stopped out, I will just get back in over $92.50.

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1/27/16 - What a beating NFLX has been taking since earnings and I think its over as we are not in a very good Bull 180 setup. If we get a green bar started tomorrow, I am long some shares and a couple calls. Then if it holds on Friday, I will start selling some naked puts since this is the 8th week of selling. If we get a capitulation to the 89MA on the weekly chart, then I will get aggressive on naked puts.

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1/24/16 - No love for NFLX as investors and the big funds have definitely been DUMPING this stock. The 200MA bounce was just a suckers rally and until it can close over the 200MA it's still going to suffer more selling. I am bullish even though the stock is getting beat up right now, but I am looking for some long plays because I think the growth story is still there and the stocks price is still very attractive to the small investors. I am not stubborn and will trade what I see and for now I see more selling if the stock cannot get over the 200MA this week. I think a lot of the selling is funds freeing up capital to move into other stocks like FB, GOOGL and AMZN for earnings so for now NFLX is taking a bench seat.

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1/20/16 - We started to get a decent open and then the beating began plunging the stock down under the 200MA before investors bought that discount and piled in driving the stock all way the way back to a flat close...wow!

I was fishing for a WW trade and when it did not open up as much as I expected, I jumped on since the price was whacked down to $1.00 making for a nice WW trade if you took profits. This type of post earnings move is usually followed up with more upside but with a close EXACTLY on the high side of the SGB zone it will be interesting to see if we have conviction the rest of the week. A positive open I will get long shares and sell some naked puts. I will remain bullish so long as NFLX holds the 200MA on the daily chart.

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1/19/16 - BIG BEAT on EPS but slight miss on revenue and stock jumps nearly 10% in after hours! The challenge is this is probably not going to be enough to overcome the huge IV pump and make the OTM options very profitable. Depending on what happens in pre-market tomorrow (and the overall markets) we may just see NFLX do a pop-n-drop so I am fishing for a White Whale trade tomorrow since they missed on revenue. In after hours the stock made a very nice rise to $123.04 which is a dead stop at the upper SGB zone, so now we need to see NFLX take out take out and hold over $126.00 to set the trend for continued all time highs going forward.

Many of the talking heads and analysts are saying this stock has peaked and revenue growth is going to be minimal compared to costs of delivery and customer acquisition; however the company added an impressive 5.5M new subscribers which is most likely why the stock jumped up sharply in after hours. Ok, so if they missed slightly on revenue, will that be the case in future quarters when they start the roll out into all the new countries? This will be what's on the mind of fund managers going forward if they will have rapid revenue growth or long term growth. One interesting thing to note is NFLX has raised prices on their premium streaming service to $12.00 for customers wanting the new 4K Ultra HD. This will have future revenue growth but it will take a long time and it will be even longer to get the new 4K technology into all those countries they are expanding into so that will not have a significant impact on revenue growth the rest of this year.

So, what are we left with? The upside appears to be solid, but there are certainly cracks in the foundation as competition keeps chipping away at their massive lead; and we have to remember, they do NOT own their distribution channels so that means costs to deliver their content will always be a major expense which also impacts revenue growth—I am still bullish in this stock, but not aggressive until I can see it take out last years all time high at $133.50.

The weekly chart has triggered a Bull 180 and now we want to see it clear out over the top SGB zone or I will be looking for a failure and drop back to test the lower SGB under 110 and then $100.00 if things get really bad.

With the after hours activity, NFLX is currently just under T3 so I am looking for a solid open over T3 and if it cannot take out T4 and the top of the SGB zone, then I will be shorting shares.

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1/17/16 - This week is earnings for NFLX and it should be a rocket ride of a move. The IV is already pumped way the heck up so making a big gain is going to be difficult and with tomorrow a holiday and earnings on Tuesday after the bell, there will still be a lot of that IV pumped in if not even more. All last week the stock was hammered down with the markets and analysts comments as the expansion news was digested and picked apart. There are all kinds of opinions and for now the bearish bias has been winning. Once the company announces earnings, we will get a price and direction set probably for the rest of the year and the future looks very promising for NFLX with all the content deals with Disney kicking in this year. I am a bull on this stock but if it cannot get back over $125 after earnings, then I may have to change my bias to neutral and trade with OTM Lotto puts. The close of trading this week put NFLX right on it's 200MA and the bounce was not impressive like they usually are so without some strong market sentiment and news, we may see a breach of the 200MA initially.

I plan to do some fishing on the $100 strike Tuesday morning and then I will get some calls 10% OTM for earnings and a couple of Jan wk5 puts as my hedge. I will be adjusting positions once I see how the stock and the markets are trading on Tuesday.

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1/14/16 - What started out good was quickly whacked down yesterday and then today the bounce comes off the 200MA but a close under the top of the SGB zone is still suspect. I think the 200MA will hold as long as the markets don't tank but the weekly chart is looking EXTREMELY bearish with the currently engulfing bearish candle. Until NFLX can get back over $115.00 it's a cautious long but my bullish bias is still in tact until the next earnings release.

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1/11/16 - Earnings $ea$on has begun and I am expecting NFLX to make some decent moves ahead of theirs. The charts are full of SGB zones so it's kind of a crap shoot but we should see some nice potential lotto trades coming up. The weekly chart has NFLX in a Bull 180 pattern. This week the naysayers came out with all kinds of negative points of view and that has investors cautious but I think this stock wants to go higher. I am still a bull this year and will trade with that bias for now. I plan on having puts in place over earnings and I will continue to fish for lower entry points on most of my trades. I do day trade a lot in this stock so it will give me insight to help my subscribers capitalize on as we move through the year.

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1/7/16 - THE IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON WW AND LOTTO TRADES IS TO TAKE A PROFIT! If you did not take profits this morning then your trade is most likely busted by tomorrow unless we get that miracle rebound rally off the China market crash. My student who caught that massive MOBY DICK was up as much at 75,000% at the open so I am hoping he took profits; otherwise what was a massive gift bit off the hook and swam away—he may get some luck tomorrow and get another chance, but a Moby In The Boat is better than two on the the hook; especially if you are up 75,000% WOW.

I cannot stress enough that you MUST TAKE PROFITS and then you can compound into the next trade with bigger size.

If the markets were in rally mode I know NFLX would have just kept on going higher, but things just did not work out that way and even NFLX had to finally succumb to the selling pressures. Notice on the chart it stalled almost exactly at the base of the SGB zone and then stopped selling at the top of the lower SGB zone. If we do get a massive rally going tomorrow, NFLX is sure to be a leader but it does not matter because you must take profits if you want to build your account to 7 figures—THERE IS ALWAYS ANOTHER TRADE COMING!

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1/6/16 - NFLX is BACK! What a day and if you were fishing you have now hooked a Moby Dick. Now we just have to reel em in and we are bank rolled into earnings!$$!

Today was the opening of the CES show here in Las Vegas, and NFLX CEO Reed Hastings was the keynote speaker. He made a HUGE announcement at the end of his speech that while he was talking, his company turned on services in 130 countries! WOW, that is going to add BILLIONS in revenue and the stock EXPLODED Higher. As I was fishing for trades, one of my subscribers was actually fishing for multiple strikes and he was fishing for JanWk2 115 Calls for $0.05

and he actually got filled at $0.01!!!! He bought 10 contracts for $10.00 and now they are worth $3,660.00!!

Here is the actual LIVE MONEY fill at $0.01 (One Penny) What a White Whale we hooked onto today!

The 120 Calls and 110 Naked Puts were easily filled this morning and are now up nicely so if we get the anticipated follow through tomorrow those are going to be a LOTTO Winner too!

With this news, I expect NFLX to just keep on moving higher and ultimately reaching $142.85 which is actually $1,000.00 pre split.

(Note: I cannot post all my trades I do on this site, nobody could follow me, but you can see there are several that I do and they make profits for you).

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1/3/16 - Will NFLX be the king of on demand media in 2016? It is gong to be an amazing year as we get ready for trades that can make us RICH, so get ready and keep placing Lotto Trade orders with me!

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12/30/15 - Up a little, down a little and not much news so investors are just taking some year end profits. I was so hoping for a year end rally to the highs but the bounce off the SGB zone only produced a modest $5 move. What killed the momentum was news on AMZN gaining large ground on Prime subscribers. Also, AMZN has been cutting content deals and also producing up and coming original programs which is heating up competition for eyeballs and subscribers. Of course NFLX has the muscle and the advantage of being the "brand" but if they slip (even a little bit) on subscriber growth, that will definitely kill this stocks price. So, for 2016 I am bullish and NFLX is one of my go to stocks so I will be playing every move I can exploit and fishing for a Moby White Whale here and there.

Here is an interesting thought, maybe AAPL will work out with the government a deal to bring back billions of over seas profits for a hefty tax cut so long as they use the money to build jobs etc. here. Hmmm, maybe they will just BUY NFLX since they did not announce a direct competitive product with Apple TV. I do find it interesting that NFLX did the same split 7:1 that AAPL did this last years, so there certainly could be a strong coincidence afoot here.

My plans are to continue buying Lotto Calls 10% OTM week-to-week and play the trends and SGB's as they come in 2016!

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12/20/15 - Tough week of trading with FOMC and now the raising of the interest rates. NFLX is on the growth path and that is where money will be flowing in 2016 so I am a buyer on any dips and long strategies are what I am looking for. If we get a reversal started tomorrow, I will be jumping into long shares and selling naked puts.

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12/15/15 - Well, what do you know, that Bull Elephant was crushed by a Woolly Mammoth Bear Elephant bar the next day and down we go under the SGB zone. This sell off is definitley FOMC related and until that is finalized tomorrow, NFLX will no doubt be a big mover. I am bullish on this stock so I just look for pull backs to buy long trades and we are getting a very good one here. I am definitely fishing for some calls post announcement and will buy some Lotto Puts at the open tomorrow.

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12/6/15 - SGB zone held and now we have a engulfing bull elephant bar on the daily but I prefer to have seen it take out the last two days of wicks which indicates sellers were present. The weekly chart has the stock in a strong bullish move however that move needed to be over 55% of the previous larger move so we can still see a retreat and if that were to happen then I would be looking for some short term puts or shorts. NFLX is still a favored long play for 2016 and I fully expect volatility to increase and opportunities to come so I am looking for continued DOTM lotto calls.

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11/2915 - Final month of trading for 2015 and NFLX is looking like it wants to go higher but it has to clear out the current SGB zone and it tested it this last Friday. If we get a gap open Monday that holds after 15 minutes, then I am long shares and will start selling some put premium spreads. If the stock fails to hold here, then I want to get in on some short strategies down to the lower SGB zone at $115.00. I am a long term bull so any shorts I do place, I will take profits quickly and continue to buy OTM calls at a 10% move every week all of 2016.

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11/15/15 - The power of the SGB is just too good of a SHORT ALL OF THEM signal. NFLX began to descend two days after my last post and then it gets a strong reversal that became another SGB and DOWN WE GO! Although I did not have any shorts posted to the site, I hope you were still able to get some shorts on and catch some nice profits this week. I will be looking for the next entry points and as I said before, I still keep some OTM calls in play every week with this stock. I am expecting the stock to full test the current largest SGB this week, and any positive news will be bought as investors really like this stock but maybe institutions don't have a very large appetite for NFLX shares at the moment due to some ramblings that GOOGL and others may be launching a streaming video business in the coming months. We know NFLX is currently the KING but they are also spent to the hilt and that can either be a lift like it has been for AMZN or a dead weight that will take them down if competition dilutes the content wars so for now I am still a long term bull on NFLX, but I will trade the direction / trend from week-to-week.

As we come to the end of 2015 trading, I expect some volatility to pick up in NFLX, and there is a LOT of profit in this stock annual investors will want to protect by the end of this year. If you look at the monthly chart, NFLX started last year out at $49.15 ($344.05) and at the 52 week high, NFLX hit $129.29 ($905.03) which was a 163% gain; and now with the stock at $103.65 ($725.58) that gain has shrunk to a $110.89%. My thinking is all those annual type investors will definitely be looking to lock in at or near a 100% ROI for this year if they have not already sold out this past week. With that said, we can see NFLX go down to around $98.00 015—which happens to be just under the huge SGB we are currently trading in with final support where buyers stepped on the gas three times at $95, so if those buyers are not still there, then they will dump this year too but I fully expect NFLX to hold up at the 200MA should the selling get really bad by the end of 2015 trading.

This week is November expiration and we are heading into the holiday shopping season, so I expect some action to develop in several stocks as well as NFLX so I want to be on the hunt to see what we can catch!

Here was the big option action Friday with a huge 1,774 contract PUT buy at the ask.

Puts are edging ahead of calls which still shows a lot of bullish intent because with the stock pulling back pretty hard this week there has not been that much of an increase in the Put/Call ratio.

I will be watching the IV for the rest of the year to see how the final weeks change as volatility picks up.

Finally, the gains on Friday move down produced some good ROI if you were shorting.

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11/5/15 - NFLX topped out today just above the SGB and then pulled back closing right in the middle. If we get profit taking tomorrow on a down day, then I will be looking for NFLX to vall back to $110 and a rally it's on for $120. There is always the wild card announcements so I will keep OTM calls on tap every week even if I do not post them to the site because NFLX is my horse to ride for the next year.

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11/4/15 - Momentum picked up today after news in the industry about changes to content delivery has competitors like Time Warner and Comcast scrambling for position in the new on-demand world. All this information had NFLX pushing higher and when it hit the news wires there was an initial pull back but investors just stepped on the gas even more driving the stock to it's high of the day. One thing to note is the stock closed at the top of the double SGB range so a move over is a bullish play and a failure to take out $117 is a bearish short term. We may get a nice WW trade tomorrow or Friday so I am going to do some fishing at the 110 put strike if the SGB's hold the stock back.

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11/2/15 - Since the earnings miss, NFLX made a decent pull back and then rallied again topping out today at the top of a previous SGB zone. The stock looks to be pulling back on possible concern that the just released Apple TV will become more of a competitor than a collaborator and that will have some investors thinking harder about putting in big capital. With two high side SGB's and the big one it resting on, we could get a nice short going here; however, you need to have OTM calls going for that upside surprise announcement. I am a long term bull on NFLX but I play the direction the markets and charts give me too.

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10/14/15 - NFLX missed by $0.01 cent on estimates and lower revenue; however, over seas subscription were stronger and the stock initially was dumped to a bubble low of 93.55 when the buyers stepped on the gas and just drove the stock all the way back in after hours trading. The conference call was excellent and comments on a future deal with AAPL may give us a solid move tomorrow. With that astronomical IV I am sure the MM want to keep a lid on this stock the rest of the week so they can just suck up all that money. We should get a rally good White Whale trade opportunity tomorrow so let's go fishing!

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10/13/15 - Get ready, we are on for a move and hopefully it will be a HUGE move well beyond the MMM of +/- 15.18; however, the IV is now pumped up to astronomical proportions at 192% so actually , selling OTM premium is the way to go at this point on this weeks expiration and buying more time if you are looking to speculate. I already have long shares so now I am going to sell the Oct Wk3 110 covered calls to 80% of my shares. Since I have NO problem owning shares of NFLX I am also selling OTM naked puts too.

Ok, so now we look at the charts to see that we had a SGB yesterday and today the stock sells off primarily due to comments made on the early morning show Squawk Box with the guests talking about the amazing turn in NFLX and the future of the company. This may have caused some selling pressure on the stock today, but all things said, it looks like NFLX is in for a decent move and unfortunately the option are massively over priced so hard to say if we get a Mega Lotto trade.

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10/11/15 - Earnings this week should produce a very nice move in NFLX. Since they are raising prices, that means more profits and higher valuations for this very popular stock. New projections are coming in at $140 so I am sure there will be a slew of upgrades hitting the news wires this week. The IV is a massive 143% so buying any calls is a total crap shoot and selling premium is the best bet but we know NFLX can CRUSH you if you sell naked calls. Since this stock has so much upside probabilities and future growth I would ONLY sell naked puts because I have no problem owning shares at these price levels.

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10/8/15 - Well, NFLX was on the way back into the SGB zone today and then they announced in afternoon trading they are raising prices again on the DVD service for new subscribers. The stock EXPLODED higher and never looked back taking options higher in a White Whale fashion. If you were on your game today, then you should have picked up on it and made some huge gains. In after hours the rise continued with closing trades at $116.35. It's looking good for a big move again tomorrow as the news gets out so I am looking to sell some BPS spreads because the Calls are now pumped up with huge IV. If you do jump on calls, then you need to be sure to take profits tomorrow on your trades because the MM will no doubt be looking to pick pockets all over the place with huge spreads and IV moves. Earnings are next Wednesday so we may very well see NFLX blast off to new all time highs over $127.00. Remember, this stock just split 7:1 so unadjusted it is actually trading at $804.00 per share and if they do beat, the the rise in prices will only FUEL this rocket taking it to $1,000.00 or $142.85. If they miss, I think the raising of prices will keep the downside capped because I am sure there will be NO backlash from customers. We also have huge content deals in the works and 2016 is going to be the release of Disney content plus more will be coming for sure.

I have the 116 calls listed which are up HUGE today if you were fishing for lower prices like I teach. If NFLX holds after hours pricing, then these will open up strong so be sure to take some profits off if you are in them since they expire tomorrow.

The monthly chart is now very bullish and with more revenue coming in and content deals abound, we should see NFLX take off to attack that $1,000 pre split price point. If things go bad, then the SGB zone is the short range under $108 so you want to have some BCS in November just in case, but my bias is BULLISH.

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10/4/15 - Markets rally and NFLX participates but not a big move compared to others. There is still some caution in investors minds but as earnings start and news comes out, I am sure NFLX will be a nice runner once it can clear out the current SGB zone it is trading in. I am looking for a move over $108 to get aggressive on the long plays and any dips back to $100 I will shop for some more long plays. I am long term bullish on this stock for now and will continue to keep Lotto calls 10% OTM every week.

Last week I did a multi-call play fishing for cheaper prices and it worked! We had two expire worthless and two that made enough profits to pay those off and lock in some great gains!

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9/27/15 - NFLX took a good dip after my last comments and it was bought up as bargain shoppers look for bigger moves in the future. The company is aggressively expanding in multiple countries and that is the linchpin that can strengthen or break the chain of events for them. The battle for content will no doubt be very tough in the US as AMZN, GOOLG and AAPL begin to encroach on NFLX territory with on-demand programming. Since Apple did not directly offer streaming content with AppleTV that could leave room for a possibly collaboration or maybe even a merger with NFLX in the future. All I know is I am biased to the bullish side and will trade what I get as things move forward. We have a very large SGB range to clear and once the stock can move over $108, then I will get more aggressive on long strategies always keeping something on the short side going. If we do get a move back under $100 this week, then I expect a battle one more time at $95.00 which can be a triple bottom and that can prove to be very solid base for the stock to climb significantly higher.

I am looking for NFLX to hold the line on this SGB zone so I want to do some Multi-strike fishing this week to see how things can work out.

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9/20/15 - The move higher pre FOMC was nothing more than short covering as investors sold NFLX on the news and closed it at the bottom of a very large SGB zone. This will be our pivot for long/short plays; however, I remain a bullish bias and will keep some OTM Lotto calls on continually for the next 52 weeks because if they do get the massive infusion of positive news, I believe the stock has a lot of upside positional and I do not want to miss out. I will be day trading shares along the way to pay for my speculation and selling some premium spreads too. If NFLX cannot hold $100 then I will get some short term puts but I will always have MORE calls on tap than I trade short.

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9/16/15 - FINALLY we get some movement in NFLX and with the FOMC tomorrow it seems strange to me that a stock that has been beat down so much in the face of a moving market all of a sudden catches a bid in front of probably the most pivotal news event wave had in well over a year with regards to the FOMC decision on interest rates. I am a strong bull on this stock, but I also think this may be a pump and then a HUGE DUMP if things go negative. Keep in mind that today's action has NFLX exactly retraced 55% of the SGB zone so we MUST have some puts in place tomorrow.

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9/13/15 - NFLX traded sideways all week testing the SGB zone and there was no big moves down which means we may have a bottom forming here and with market support, positive FOMC news and any stock news we will see NFLX making moves. My plans are to keep fishing calls up to 10% OTM and holding some puts just in case things get really bad so long as NFLX is trading under the entire range of the current SGB zone.

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9/6/15 - NFLX slid lower and is now firmly UNDER the SGB zone; however, I do not think it will stay down there too long so I am looking for long opportunities. If the markets are strong this week, I fully expect NFLX to test the top of the SGB zone and any positive news it will definitely find buyers and short will have to cover. This stock has a lot of future compelling news and growth ahead of it so aggressive shorting is risky business.

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9/2/15 - NFLX was whacked this week right down the SGB zone bouncing right off the 89MA. All the stocks rallied today except NFLX until the very end of the day when it started to come back to life; however, I was watching time and sales and I saw several 5,000 block trades go through in the last hour of trading. If the markets turn and drop tomorrow, I expect NFLX to take out the 89MA and start to test the blowout lows; however, if it can trade back over the current SGB zone them I am looking for more long plays.

I was thinking about this stock today and what they may be up to with the canceling of the Epix content. I certainly do not think they company can't pay the bill so I am of the opinion they are going to announce an even better content deal. You may remember they signed a content deal with Disney content that starts in 2016; and isn't it kind of strange they did a 7:1 stock split like AAPL? You may also remember, it is expected that AAPL will launch AppleTV streaming service in the future and AAPL is also entrenched with PIxar/Disney, so it stands to reason that maybe NFLX and AAPL could possible merge (that is AAPL buys out NFLX) in the future. Well, that could be a really big deal; however, it could be a lousy one for us as we may lose a work horse of massive profits in the future.

I plan to just keep on buying OTM calls every week in this stock managing my spending with spreads and day trades. Whether or not my speculation is correct, I believe NFLX will be on the rise in the future so get ready to cash in!

Netflix's eagerness to sign a deal under which the best content is not available until 2016 and the Disney deal is still the best news Netflix has received in a while. In October, notorious corporate raider Carl Icahn bought a nearly 10% stake in Netflix and said the company is a prime takeover target for tech giants....

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8/30/15 - There was a news article today stating the NFLX is letting its contract with Epix lapse in September which means some premium content will no longer be available. This will most likely negatively impact the stock in the short term; however, there may be an even BETTER announcement coming so you can't stick to aggressive shorts, just scalp some profits here and there but keep long calls in play all the time.

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8/19/15 - Today NFLX slipped under the SGB so if you want to short it then stops are at $126.00 but you have to keep some OTM calls going on this stock because it can move quickly on any positive news.

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8/17/15 - No big news last week after the slight rally and NFLX fails to take out the SGB so if we get a move under it, I am shorting for only a day trade but keeping lotto calls in play at all times. Downside target is T2 and maybe T3, but that is where I would be a buyer.

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8/13/15 - Industry news started to lift NFLX but, the current SGB is proving to be a lid on upside action and I stuck with my short and will be looking for NFLX to slide lower tomorrow. Of course, it wants to go higher so I have calls in play. Once NFLX can take out the entire SGB zone at $129.29, then I will get aggressively bullish again. There is the pending expansion into China, and even if it's not a long term winner, it should definitely be a short term event to give this stock a nice move higher.

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8/12/15 - So far the short under the SGB is making money, but I am looking to take profits if the stock does not open down tomorrow. I have lotto calls in place because Thur/Fri are the days a surprise announcement can be released and we explode higher. Should the stock continue to slide lower, I am looking for a test of the 21MA on the daily chart.

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8/8/15 - Now that the split is over and the stock has had a very impressive move higher, we get a SGB in place last week that is looking like it will hold. This stock has very strong momentum, popularity and future compelling news, so you cannot get aggressive on shorts. I plan to short under the SGB but will be keeping some Lotto Calls in play at all times.

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7/17/15 11:30PM - Final day of trading and investors took a break but did NOT take profits; they were too busy making more in GOOGL...WHAT A WEEK!

NFLX opened to a SGB and trickled down all day so now we have our pivot points in place going forward. We had some HUGE Lotto trade on NFLX, GOOGL and FB so can we get even MORE? I certainly expect to with this much momentum built into the earnings season so far.

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7/16/15 11:30PM - Another HUGE LOTTO WINNER. Can you believe NFLX took off another 15 today? That's basically a $107.00 pre split move...WOW!$$! When GOOGL announce earnings and exploded +80, NFLX took off again and hit $118.65. We just might see this stock take out $120 tomorrow too. I hope you took some profits off the table today because this stock could easily fall taking away a lot of the gains you could have had today. Tomorrow I will do another White Whale fishing trip in anticipate of another big move for Friday expiration.

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7/15/15 8:30PM - Well they beat estimates, surprised with much better subscriber growth, but costs are rising and NO announcement of China expansion yet. Most likely this huge reaction in post market will resolve to profit taking, but NFLX has historically just kept on driving higher the next day so we have to see. I certainly want to see it put on another $10 tomorrow making the Lotto Calls and BPS a success, but if the stock cannot get over $110 in the first 15 minutes, I will be looking for some short plays into next week's expiration.

This after hours move puts the stock at $755.58 pre-split which is a FIBONACCI price point (55), so we will see if NFLX can't drive 55 or it get's pulled over by the profit taking police...lol

7/15/15 8:50AM - Now that the stock has split, the confusion is probably very high and with earnings coming out tonight, how much more can this stock move up or down is the big question. So far, it's sticking around at $100 a share and most likely will the entire day so if you are not already in any trades, then I would be looking to buy MORE time. I am beginning to suspect there will not be a very big move and so my OTM BCS are most likely going to expire worthless with 100% of the premium collected.

The split adjusted chart shows us the SGB from 7/11 is till there, so that is my pivot point going forward. As for getting into any new positions today, I would not be looking any further than 5% OTM on calls that expire this week and up to 10% OTM on puts that expire next week or the end of the month.

Whoever bought those 541- 103.93 calls invested a huge sum of money betting the stock will be trading (in pre split dollars) over $727.51 by Friday.

So if the MMM is accurate, then (based on the current price) they stand to be approximately $3.83 ITM; which means a max net gain of $1.52 after you take out what they paid. That is not a very good risk/reward trade if you ask me—we like to get LOTTO PAID and that is not looking like it will happen this time with NFLX.

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7/13/15 - Nice rally today in NFLX ahead of tomorrow's 7:1 split and now the options are packed with 99%IV so its a really bad bet to get long calls. Even with today's big rally, the options across the board rose a paltry 25-40% so the game plan here is to sell OTM premium spreads. We definitely got filled on our puts, but no way on the calls. After the impressive rally at the open, the stock pulled back all day and I am expecting it to attempt a peg at $700 tomorrow for the split, but anything can happen when it comes to stocks like NFLX; and with the stock at all time highs, popularity and tons of future compelling news, investors could very well just keep piling in looking for that split action. NOTE: if you have a large account you can sell Naked Calls but you need to go DOTM to be sure you have a lot of protection so I am selling the 800 strike that expires this week but be warned, NFLX could make some huge announcement and may just explode higher.

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7/11/15 - After a quiet week of trading, NFLX investors jumped in on Friday with a nice gap up; however, it was quickly met with sellers and turned into a DOJI SGB. I do not think that SGB is by any means a short signal at this time, I just wanted to point it out to you. Ok, so how can we play the split? Well, they are splitting the stock on the 14th and on the 15th they report earnings. Hmmm, this is a bit out of the ordinary for a company to split first then report the very next day. In fact, I can't recall ever having this happen and I have been trading for over 17 years. So, why do you think they would be doing it? I mean, it seems obvious to me they plan to BEAT and SURPRISE because it would look really stupid for them to do this unorthodox move and disappoint right? The last big split event was AAPL and that turned out to be total DUD at first, so maybe NFLX will show the trading world how it is done...lol.

Of course, options are priced to the max with a 90% IV, so if you have a small account, you need to only take on a small position or just wait until the split and earrings are over before you take on any trades because there will be plenty of trade opportunities in the future. For me, I will speculate to the call side with weekly options and buy some longer term puts. That way, if they do surprise, we bank a potentially huge lotto trade, and if they disappoint, we have time on our side to get the call money back and/or profit to the downside.

Recent upgrade ramblings are calling for a $740 price target and ultimate goal of $900+—there is no right trade this week, so you just have to pick your spot and see what you get by the end of the week.

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7/6/15 - The Icahn departure has played out and NFLX is showing signs of a potential split run but how much higher will it go? I think the upside is limited until post split because millions of small investors will most likely be waiting until then to get in. It psychologically fits better to buy 100 shares for around $10k than buying only 10 shares now even though you get basically the same result. This stock has more reason to pull back now than go up but over time, it will play out. The big question is will it move like it has in the past? There is no doubt in my mind that NFLX is going to continue to grow and expand content, especially now that they will have huge quantities of shares to leverage into buyouts and acquisitions etc. For now there is really not great trade opportunities on the long side because IV is pumped up at 65% so selling some premium could be a good opportunity; however, selling premium into a split is not a good idea for many reason. I am going to wait it out on any size until post split.

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6/28/15 - We are finishing up June trading and getting ready for earnings season. The coming split in NFLX now has mixed emotions for investors since Carl Icahn announced he was SELLING all of his shares. What really stinks, is the company announced a split way BEFORE earnings—which are not going to be released until July 20th!—what the heck?@#!? Had they done it after earnings, we could have seen a massive pay day and now we get SQUAT!!

Could they be telegraphing something to us? Could they be sandbagging a HUGE news release post earnings and they wanted the stock so cheap it could literally DOUBLE in days to weeks? What we do know is this stock emerged from near collapse back in 2012 and now it rides the heights and popularity of AAPL in their space with no signs of slowing down—NFLX is a part of our culture now.

Typically a stock will run up into a split, but figuring out weather NFLX will do it in light of Icahn dumping his shares will only be known after the fact; however, we are speculators and only trade "what is" every day and NFLX can still give us a TON of profits on either side of the action. As for the Icahn exit, will it really have a major impact? Hardly! In in my opinion, his departure has already been played out and we just need to focus on price movement and Lotto trades because NFLX as the split approaches.

Ok, so what are others saying about the stock and its current price levels? Well, Citigroup recently announced a downgrade to "neutral" and others have said the stock is "priced to perfection" with price targets back to as low as $585.00—$83.57 post split which is the price range it took of from back in 2012.

The other interesting thing to note is the CEO sold off nearly 300k shares raking in close to $200 million bucks! I have to say, the goal in trading is to buy low and sell high; and you have to agree that NFLX has been one of the BEST trades for the buy/hold crowd for three years now—if all of the high profile investors are jumping ship, we have to consider that into our trade models and build strategies around it.

Ok, so what is my plan for NFLX? Same plan I always have, look for cheap Lotto trades and trade around earnings events; however, the current environment in NFLX will most likely not produce those massive multi-thousand percent ROI trades for now, so we just need to concentrate on vertical spread type strategies to finance our lotto trades.

What do the charts tell me? They tell me a lot, so lets dig in and see what I can point out to you.

When a stock is going through a split cycle, I like to look at monthly charts to see what impact a split may have on price; and with NFLX having detractors and high profile profit takers; we have to try and figure out the best possible BUY points—even though they are taking profits, it does not mean the stock is going to die, it's just going to adjust it trade price so it's perceived a a cheap value investment in the future. Think about it, if you bought in at $60 like Icahn did and rode it to these heights, wouldn't you be taking profits too?—this is a normal timing of events and should be expected.

Drilling down to the weekly chart we get a better picture on how the selling of Icahn the CEO and downgrades have impacted what should have been a MASSIVE lotto trade had they just waited until earnings.

Finally, I look at the monthly charts when splits are coming to try and guage where the buy points can be in the future.

So, for the long term, my assessment is NFLX will continue to be a great investment and I think it will get a LOT more movement post split than AAPL because it will not have as many outstanding shares so it takes less volume overall to move the stock around.

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6/23/15 - The expected split announcement was released today—a massive 7:1—and that SUCKS because it was not done with earnings which would have made the stock EXPLODE higher. Instead, we get a mini-move in after hours today compared to what it could have been over earnings. Well, as Murphy's Law would have it, I did not have anything posted to the site because I was wafting until Wednesday to do some more lotto trades. Now if you were diligent in buying those OTM calls, then you should have a very good day of profits tomorrow.

In after hours trading today, the stock launched higher but not as much as I would have expected on a huge announcement like this. That indicates the big money is not all that motivated at these lofty levels, or they too were just caught by surprise too. One thing I want you to take note of the posted high at $705.34. I have always said it is NOT coincidence closing prices are pegged at Fibonacci numbers; and you should use them as entry/exit points.

The best way to get on the action the rest of this week is to sell Bull Put Spreads and continue to fish with OTM calls, but now you have to keep your strikes closer to a 3% move. I am confident the stock will continue to drive higher in the coming weeks with this big of a split announced, so get in and hold on if you buy calls with more time.

I am hopeful we get a dip in the morning, but it may not happen and NFLX continues to explode higher the rest of the week. Once the news is heard around the world, investors will most likely be coming in droves to get in on the action, plus, it seems strange they announced this early ahead of earnings, so maybe there is even more news coming soon.

Here is today's call action and it will be interesting to see how much return these calls will get tomorrow.

Here was the volume activity today. Notice a ton of 680, 690 and 700 calls were bought.

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6/21/15 - Nice moves since my last comments and it was met with strong selling on HUGE volume and now we have an engulfing bearish candle for Friday June Expiration. Are the big money managers taking a break as we start the summer doldrums? The past weeks trading action certainly suggest that but remember, we have a lot of future compelling news out there, so I want to look at any dips as opportunities to get on some Lotto Calls at a cheap price.

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6/10/15 - Investors hit the gas this morning and the stock shot up to almost $700 a share...wow! If you bought the 690/700 calls then you had to get in quick and the profits were HUGE for a day trade but if you held on they were crushed by the end of the day so that is why you MUST take some off the table if you get a 300%-500% move! NFLX is the HOT stock for 2015 and it is not looking like its going to stop moving up. Any dips will be bought so keep fishing for good entry points in the 3-5% down moves and get keep fishing for Lotto Calls because the news stores are going to keep coming now that the stock has billions of shares to use.

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6/9/15 - Today shareholders approved the company to issue more shares to the tune of 5BILLION. This is a very strong indicator a split is going to be pursued in "due course," stated CEO Reed Hastings at the annual shareholder meeting. It most likely will not be this week so anticipate a possible "sell the news" event since the stock was dead stopped at $649 and the IV is very low for NFLX.

When they do announce a split, this stock can easily mover over 20%, so you have to KEEP fishing for those OTM call because I believe they will announce in the future on a Wed-Thurs for a Friday EXPLOSION of PROFITS!!!!

For now we need to just keep fishing for calls on pull backs and selling premium spreads to finance the action because it WILL PAY OFF in the future!!$$!!

There are touts this stock will DOUBLE from here, so now that the future compelling news is out, expect this massive MOMENTUM to kick in!!

Get ready, because NFLX could very well make you a MILLIONAIRE in the next 12 months with my LOTTO PLAYS.

Note in after hours the stock took out $650 but stopped short of hitting $655 and you know how I like to pay attention to movement

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5/31/15 - Is it time for NFLX to take a break as we enter the summer trading cycle? The next earnings report is scheduled for July 20th so we have a lot of time and if now news breaks this week, we could definitely see some profit taking. Thursday was a DOJI-SGB so any move under that DOJI and you could try some BCS or a couple of puts no further OTM than 3% and be ready to take profits. My strategy is to keep fishing for DOTM calls in the expectation they will announce opening in China and I expect the stock to explode over 20% higher on that news.

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5/23/15 - No action on NFLX or the markets in general as traders prepared for the long Memorial Day weekend. The China news has probably played out and now the stock is most likely to pull back a little bit if no other news breaks. Our strategy is to just keep fishing for those Lotto trades and selling BPS to collect rent to finance our speculation and rest assured, we will cash in on NFLX in the future!$$!

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5/16/15 - If you had the straddle or the long plays on as I suggested below then you woke up Friday to a MASSIVE winner...WOW!$!

NFLX announced it was opening up in China and the stock gapped up in the morning giving the OTM options multi-thousand percent ROI over night!

Netflix stock surged to a record high Friday on reports that the subscription

Internet television service is negotiating with partners to launch in China.

Take a look at what you could have made on the OTM calls if you were doing some Lotto Trade fishing:

What is a real bummer is I did have a straddle in place, but I was not paying attention to NFLX this week and, well, missed out on—what would have been—one of the biggest Mega Lotto trades so far this year !@#$!

I still managed to make a really good profit on my 20 contract straddle, but I sure do wish I has some of those calls above going..

So, I may have missed out this time, but be assured there will continue to be PLENTY of trade opportunities in NFLX and this stock is definitely going to move a lot higher in the future if they indeed close the deal to launch in China because the subscriber growth in China will easily eclipse the growth in the US.

The biggest challenge is what content will they be able to provide over there, heck, you still can't search on GOOGL in China, so what will NFLX be allowed to stream to the billions of Chinese citizens?

It has also been reported that Netflix has already spoken with the Shanghai-based BesTV New Media and Wasu Media. What is interesting to point out here is that Alibaba (BABA) has an ownership stake in these companies, so this news will boost the share price in BABA too if NFLX gets government approval so we want to also start fishing in BABA going forward.

I am moving NFLX into my Compounder Lotto trade status and will start laying multiple orders each week—I do not want to miss out on another MEGA LOTTO TRADE in the future!

Looking over the chart, we can see that NFLX is in a very powerful bull elephant move that will ultimately go parabolic in the future, so you just have to be IN this stock. If your account is small, then keep selling Bull Put Spreads (BPS) and fish for those Mega Lotto trades each Wed/Thur because that day will come when they do start streaming in China and the move will easily be 10% higher!!$$$!!.

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4/29/15 - As we wind down to the last day of trading will we see the infamous sell in May and go away? So far NFLX has been holding all that ground and now that the Fed has indicated it will NOT be raising rates in June, this could be time investors just take a break from all this upside action and let the stocks that have run pull back for a rest. I plan to start a straddle to test the waters and then I will add to the side that gets the momentum.

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4/19/15 - What a stock NFLX is for option traders. If you held onto some of your calls into Friday, you were rewarded with more profits. This stock has caught yet another parabolic fever which means shorting potential is coming, but it will be difficult and painful if you are not good at taking profits. There are MILLIONS of investors just beside themselves for not getting on board, and they will be looking for ANY pullbacks to get in. I am pretty confident this stock will bounce around is a wide range which makes for some good premium selling opportunities. The IV% has normalized now that the news is out so we need to fish for entry points to capture some profits as this stock moves around. This week has some good earnings coming up with CMG, FB and AMZN so I am sure money will flow out of NFLX in the hopes of the other high beta stocks will have similar results. I expect the stock to attempt to take a stab at $580 so there is where I will be looking to test some puts. If the stock sells down immediately on Monday, then I will be looking for a buy opportunity at a 55% retracement of Thursdays move.

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4/16/15 - When the Bulls run out of steam the Bears take up the slack with short covering and so we had a massive up day over $90 at one point. My Lotto Calls and BPS made some very nice gains if you were in them!! Now we have to figure out if this is the first leg in a longer trend higher or will investors take immediate profits? The stock was upgraded several times with price targets upwards of $900 per share. Typically this is a SUCKER PUNCH initially. I mean, really, where were these brilliant analysts with their ridiculous price targets BEFORE the earnings release. Don't get me wrong, this stock could easily power on higher and most likely will so we just need to look for pull back entry points to get in with size. The best way to get started is with premium spreads so you your downside is capped, and when things are going your way, then you jump in with shorter term lotto trades. If you were watching the IV last night, you saw that it was pumped up over 150% and by the end of today they crushed it down to 42% taking away a lot of the profits.

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4/15/15 (1:30pm) - They beat, added more than expected subscribers in US and abroad, and they are talking about splitting the stock. All that excitement and the stock explodes over $67 higher in after hours. Depending on how the conference calls goes we could get a very good White Whale trade opportunity tomorrow morning. This stock has been quite a rocket ride and now it's just kicked in the booster rockets and busted through the atmosphere to new all time highs. We need the CEO to confirm they will split the stock to keep things going higher tomorrow; however, I am sure the MM want to definitely push this stock back down to suck up all the inflated call premiums so if the stock cannot move back over the post trading high at %542.00 we could see a very good White Whale trade opportunity so for me, I am going to fish the $505 Puts expecting the stock to fall back UNDER $500 by Friday if this move has exhausted the bulls.

If prices hold up here tomorrow morning the Lotto Calls and BPS will make some very nice gains!

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TOS shows the stock needs to trade above 541 or below 523 by this Friday to be profitable.

Most likely this was a hedge fund SELLING PREMIUM expecting the stock to NOT make a move in either direction greater the $42.00 so they can capture that huge IV.

4/15/15 (9:00am) - Getting a little pull back this morning which is usually what happens as investors make final decision on what they want to do.

The whisper number is $0.76 which is $.07 cents above analysts expectations so that number is considered a "lucky" number to some so it is going to be an interesting ride tomorrow after we get the news.

Someone placed a pretty large order this morning on May4 Puts and Apr15 calls both deep ITM

The $500 strike is where all the action is today so that will be the strongest resistance in after hours trading. If the stock beats and moves the expected MMM that would initially put it around $513.

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4/14/15 - Is NFLX sitting on a powder keg or what? The stock exploded higher yesterday up over $30 at one point. If the Bulls are not exhausted by now, they are going to be after tomorrow. The MMM is currently set at +/- 41.76 so that would put NFLX well over $500 and new all time highs if they beat. Now if they miss again, we could easily see this stock get crushed over twice the MMM by Friday so we definitely need to fish for puts and do premium spreads to the upside. The IV has now been pumped up to 119%, so that is just too juicy not to sell premium at the expected MMM. Today's action did not take out yesterday's highs indicating the Bulls have had enough and we also have a SGB in place, so get ready for a potential WHITE WHALE. Do NOT bet the farm on this and practice disciplined money management. There will be plenty of opportunities this earnings season, so rather than try to get every dollar out of one trade, take 50% of your profits and parlay them into more trades; and you have the potential to make over 6 figures in the next couple of weeks!

Not much short interest at 4.9 million shares and 2.2 days to cover. I prefer to see 4+ day to cover to get a big squeeze going.

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4/12/15 - Earnings are coming on Wednesday and we should see some explosive action. The stock has been on a major bullish move all last week, so the bulls are most likely going to be exhausted; and if they miss again, look out below—we may very well see more than a 10% drop!. My plan is to fish at the 410 puts and will look for a couple lotto calls the day of earnings. The biggest challenge is the IV is already at 98% so any calls are going to be very over prices. Make sure you fish for entry prices at least 34% below current bids if you plan on picking up some calls.

Remember, this company is very entrenched in the US and expanding rapidly in other parts of the world, so a first quarter beat and the race is on for higher prices. I will be selling some Bull Put Spreads with May expiration.

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3/22/15 - So far NFLX bounced off the 200MA but Friday it put in a small SGB DOJI so a move is coming very soon and if the stock falls back under the 200MA I am shorting again. If the stock moves back up, I will watch how it trades at $444 which is a significant price that has been a stopping point for the stock—plus there is another SGB zone up there too.

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3/1915 - Pivoting on the 200MA is expected and if the markets turn south, NFLX is going DOWN unless there is strong news. You have to be prepared for that to happen when a stock trades at the 200MA, so I am always keeping a few calls in play but my bias is to short it when it trades under $420. I am looking for a strong move down to the $400 and if selling gets going, this stock is going to fill 55% of that massive earnings gap.

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3/16/15 - NFLX investors stepped on the selling gas today after a downgrade to a sell hit the new wires and the stock was whacked close to $20 today. The stock touched down on the 200MA which is a major pivot point and if it gaps down tomorrow below it, we could see it easily reach $400 before the technical buyers step up to the plate. If you have not taken profits off the table now is a good time and then again at or near the 89MA on the daily chart. Any bounce from here that does not take out $434 and I will get aggressively short again. There is a huge gap to be filled from earnings two quarters back so there will be a battle at the $400 price which is a SGB. A move below the SGB and we could see NFLX drop back to a possible full gap fill but that will take some negative news and market meltdown support.

This stock is still a strong growing company, but unknown major changes are coming from Net Neutrality and competition from AMZN, BABA, GOOGL, AAPL and others is always at the door, so for now, this stock is definitely a bearish bias; however, I would keep some OTM calls on tap because the market makers will definitely make the shorts feels some anxiety if they can.

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3/7/15 - Are the cards starting to crumble down for NFLX? It appears the 3rd season of their game changing series, House of Cards, has been tagged as a flop. Friday, investors began to dump the stock kicking in a (13.53) drop; however, the selling stopped right at the top of a previous SGB. If the stock gaps down Monday, I am hoping for a bounce back to the SGB and then the let the cards FALL where they may! Look out for new announcements, deals and of course, the deluge of analysts downgrades way after the fact. Earnings are coming up in a few weeks, so I am looking for NFLX to drop back to maybe the 200MA and the last earnings gap/SGB; and then a potential earnings run up back to the SGB.

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3/3/15 - Market conditions, Fed news, net neutrality cannot seem to get NFLX to head higher; however, sellers are not present either. The charts are showing signs of weakness but it will take a market event to really get a panic selling started so trading spreads is the likely strategy for now. I will keep some OTM Lotto plays going because once this stock starts to heat up again, the moves are typically quick and explosive.

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2/22/15 - Approaching all time highs so it's going to make a move again, and there is a LOT more downside possibility than upside. I am speculation on some Lotto Puts and selling some BPS because if the stock makes a break for higher ground, $500 is the magnet price.

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1/21/15 - Every now and then we get a trade that can make your entire YEAR and today it was NFLX. I know it may not have in many accounts per say, but you can now SEE the potential of your future if you just keep sticking with my PROVEN Lotto strategy and build your contract size!! It was an amazing sight to see the stock up another $18 in pre market and actually HOLD higher than the post market close....WOW!

With today's action, it's looking very good for NFLX to just keep on moving higher and now with solid gains, upgrades and nothing but positive reaction across the board, who can argue with that? Any potential dips WILL BE BOUGHT, of course, this is what is most likely expected and that could make for some interesting moves in the next couple of days, so get ready to sell some Bull Put Spreads and fish for some more Lotto Calls tomorrow or Friday!! Congrats if you followed me on the trade ideas.

1/20/15 - NFLX beats by a wide margin and the stock exploded higher!! The longs are looking very good right now with the stock trading at $405 in after hours. It will be quite a roller coaster ride tomorrow and we need the stock to open over $400 to get maximum results. We have 3 days to expiration so it is possible the stock could go even higher like it has in the past.

I will be taking 50% off the table on all positions at the open because the IV was pumped up 143%, so depending on how the stock trades in pre-market, there may be little to no profits on the OTM calls, so if there is, I want to lock up some of it and let the rest ride.

Tomorrow we fish for a White Whale trade!! I will be looking for a WW trade on the Jan4 400 puts.

Ok, since NFLX has ridiculous IV of 150% by the close, it will be interesting to see how the call options play out. Here are the closing prices and we will compare them tomorrow. This will be a good lesson for you to see how, even though you may be ITM on the 400's at the open, the relatively low price we paid may very well still result in a loss; especially if the stock is trading anywhere near 400. Now if it happens to gap up to $410+, well, then, we will have ourselves yet another winning LOTTO TRADE here at OptionRadio!

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1/18/15 - It's earnings time again and another shot at making LOTTO TICKET profits!!! Last quarter we had a massive Lotto Trade and it can very well happen again!! This time around, we have some very interesting things going on with the charts that can make for a very big move to the downside should they MISS AGAIN! If you have been following the stock this past week, then you know it was upgraded a couple of times with 12 month price targets as high as $600 or lows to $245.00

The interesting upgrade to me was the one that happened Thursday from a firm I have not heard about and that caused the stock to rally all day?...hmm...why is it these upgrades from relatively obscure firms always seem to come around just before an earnings event. How come they don't com out a lot sooner so you can get in on the momentum? Well, the simple answer is price manipulation via pump-n-dump tactics of the big money analysts getting the dumb public to buy in as they sell to them as they get all enthused that NFLX will go to the moon this upcoming week—it can happen, but with the SGB's in play, we have a high probability another BIG drop is definitely possibly if they miss.

If you have been following me for a long time (particularly with NFLX) then you have had multiple opportunities to make WHITE WHALE profits!

Looking over the charts, we can see clearly there are THREE SGB's and we know that is a very strong short signal.

The stock gave back ALL of 2014's impressive gains dropping some 89% and is now showing two DOJI's on the monthly chart.

I am suspect of these upgrades, but I know NFLX can counter trend common sense and catch you by surprise, so you just have to pick your spots and close your eyes. The challenge this quarter is NFLX announces on Tuesday, so the IV is cranked sky high and that means we will not get the LOTTO profits we did last time (initially). There will be plenty of opportunities to make huge profits once we get the news, so trade conservatively pre-announcement and wait for the next round of trade ideas post earnings—a White Whale trade!

There were no BIG bets placed on Friday, so that indicates the options are very over priced.

What this means is that if you were to just do an ATM straddle, you would be paying so much premium, it will take better than a 10% just to break even.

This type of IV hype gives you a better chance to make some money if you simply sell some vertical spreads.

The last earnings report produced a whopping $119.98 point drop (27%) from peak to trough. Can it happen again? Can it be even bigger? The answer is unequivocally YES! So, we can fish for some Lotto profits and then sell some premium spreads to mitigate any losses.

When trading stocks like NFLX, you want to overweight your speculation with puts, especially when we have SGB's because the drops are always more dramatic than the rise; however, NFLX can make multi-day moves higher if the news is much better than expected, so I plan to sell some OTM Bull Put Spreads into FEB and then do some JanWk 4 puts, so depending on your capital tolerance, you need to spread your orders around and sell some premium to help finance the direction trades.

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10/21/14 - Looking like the rebound suckers are not showing up like they usually do. If the stock rallies anywhere close to 380's I will get some aggressive Bear Call Spreads on. I am still fishing for my current trade ideas.

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10/19/14 - NFLX is attempting to rebound from the serious whacking it took, but I think there is still more downside momentum to come. Bottom line, they are growing, but competion is at the door and as consumers have more choices, NFLX will suffer on the growth side and this is the ONLY thing that justifies stocks trading at extreme multiples. So, as long as the stock is trading under the 200MA on the daily chat, it is a SHORT on rallies. We had a HUGE winner this earnings season and there will be more on this stock in the future so be patient and wait for another fishing tip—for the short term, I plan to do some credit spreads under T2 on the weekly chart.

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10/16/14 - Another massive Lotto WINNER here at OptionRadio.com!!!!! We still have tomorrow for the stock to find legs or collapse further, so my WW fills still have a day to catch some profits, but I am not confident that will happen—I am ok with that since I made 3,500% on the puts and I hope you made some huge profits too!

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10/16/14 - PREMARKET action in NFLX is still biased to continue DOWN!! Will we get that typical post earnings bounce? Sentiment in the markets say NO, but the key factor here is how the stock trades in the first 15 minutes today. The post earnings deluge on a 15 min. chart gives us clues that $345 was the initial bounce resistance and the stock failed it three times in after hours trading. The interesting thing to me is the stock traded around $333 (remember, the number "33" has significance) the rest of the after hours session.

Now we have a pre-market test of the lows that is looking like it will not hold, so I am watching how the 380's open up and will add some 350 WW calls if the stock holds onto the first 15 minutes. If we do get continued selling, I am looking for NFLX to go sub 300 and the next major support for me is my T3 on the monthly chart!

Any attempt to rally, and we want strike prices UNDER the 15 min. VWAP so I will adjust for that if the stock does attempt to rally back over $345.00; otherwise, I am looking for a complete blowout, lights out drop under $300 by tomorrow.

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10/15/14 - NFLX was absolutely CRUSHED!!!!!!! in after hours today for a total drop of $125!!! We are going to make BANK tomorrow if this holds, and it looks like it will so far!!

Now we fish for a WW trade opportunity in the morning. I will be looking for a potential rebound failure so I want to shoot for the 330 puts on a rebound and the 350-380 calls depending on how the stock is trading in pre-market.

I was watching a video tonight and CEO Reed Hastings looks like he has aged quite a bit from the last time I saw him. He has definitely dropped some weight and has a lot grayer hair too. I am sure the stress of running this company is quite the task master on him, but he sure was upbeat and excited about the future.

Once investors sort out all the details, I am sure the company will find a solid support area (I hope that is another $100 lower) and try to shrug off this shellacking its taking at the moment.

10/15/14 - News out this morning that Time Warner will add streaming content from HBO in 2015 and that has caused NFLX to get beat down today ahead of earnings. This can be a game changer for NFLX if HBO offers better content titles. This type of news has legs and if another content provider jumps in, then NFLX is going to get whacked. If they miss earnings tonight, we will see a HUGE drop in my estimation so I am adding PUTS before the close. Many times, I have seen news like this effect NFLX, but it usually gets shrugged off and the stock recovers. This time, the stock is trading at massive highs so there is definitely more downside than upside, so if they do not beat by a wide margin, guide higher and increase subscriptions by a larger number than expected, then we will see a "sell the news" event. I am going to shoot for a 20% drop, so I am not risking that much; and if I am correct, my reward can be very large. I am taking off my Strangle play and only selling the Calls; however, do not do naked calls if you do not have a very high risk tolerance—do bear call spreads instead.

We should get a very good WW trade opportunity tomorrow after earnings are released!

10/14/14 - Earnings are tomorrow after the bell and so far NFLX has been holding up well in the recent markets deluge. The anticipation of continued growth is what keeps investors interested and so it should. The company has had a fantastic rise from near destruction and it has grown in subscriptions despite a price hike. I recently reactivated my streaming subscription and have noticed the content is still light on popular titles but definitely growing in choices. As I type this I am watching some original Start Trek TV series and the quality is excellent. There is some lagging but I think that is more due to my other activities and slower bandwidth from my cable company. Taking into account the Ebola scare going on, more people will definitely be staying home and that means more use of services like Netflix. This can also translate into more subscriber growth and thus higher prices. I do not think this sort of speculation will have any immediate impact but it may next quarter so if they beat, investors may take that into consideration.

Looking over the monthly chart, NFLX has a very big tumble back in March and overall it's been 7 full months with us being in the 8th month. The stock is actually in a perfect DOJI with a close today almost exactly at the point it was pummeled back then—these situation are NOT coincidence.

The strategy for tomorrow is to play for a surprise and overweight calls. If you want to cover yourself then consider a straddle at the 450 strike but buy Nov expiration to assure you have enough time to work it out since premiums are extremely pumped up for short term options.

The expected MMM is currently at: +/- 28.70 and the IV for this weeks options is 89.75% (+/- 30.412) This gives us a lot of premium for MM to collapse, but it's always a white knuckle ride to do a strangle on stocks like NFLX because they can move beyond the MMM, so if you were to do one, only do with small contract size.

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10/12/14 - Closing out my Bear Put Spread and getting ready for earnings on Wed. With the stock testing the 89MA and SGB we should see a good move over earnings so a longer term straddle will be my first choice and some Lotto calls and puts for this week.

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10/5/14 - Positive news has moved the stock back into breakout range over the 89/55MA's so that is the line in the sand for bullish plays. Any pull backs, I will buy some calls but a move back under the 89MA and I looks for puts again.

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9/28/14 - NFLX has been riding the 89MA and testing the 8MA all week. Friday it topped out EXACTLY on my T3 line so a move over it is very bullish and continued moves under the 89MA is very bearish for me.

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9/21/14 - NFLX sold off pretty strongly but managed a decent rebound this week indicating the selling was most likely money being raised for the BABA IPO. If that was the case, then we will see NFLX move back over my T1/T2 combo lines but with that huge Bear Elephant candle, I am looking for short entries until it has been taken out.

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9/14/14 - NFLX is testing the resolve of the SGB and if it holds true, we will get a very nice sell off that can easily drop to the 89MA T3. I have added updated Monthly T-Levels for reference. This stock is very popular with massive future compelling news, so shorting it aggressively is very risky. I plan on shorting under the last SGB but will maintain some OTM calls along the way.

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9/7/14 - Cracks in the floor on NFLX and we have another SGB so it's a short until that SGB is taken out; however, there is the potential buyout/take over bid out there, and this stock is still on fire so you have to have some Lotto calls in play too and as the stock pulls back we want to fish for cheap entry points.

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8/30/14 - Starting to show cracks in the floor but it still has a lot of future compelling news support and with continued expansion into other countries, the buyers will keep looking for reason to get in on any dips. What a recovery story this stock has had but all good things come to an end eventually especially when competition comes to town and AMZN is on their heels. Cramer keeps saying this company should be bought out by someone like AAPL and that could very well happen in the future so we have to be in there fishing if we want to catch.

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8/26/14 - SGB in place, time to try shorts. I was ahead of the curve and got filled early, but I plan to add more contracts if NFLX opens lower. If the weekly SGB turns back into a open Green Bar, then I will put on some long spreads.

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8/21/14 - More upside action has taken NFLX to its 52 week high and now investors have to decide if they are taking it to $500 or higher. All the signals on the charts suggest that is exactly what will happen so the trend is your friend right? If things change, this stock will drop quickly in a short period of time so buy longs by fishing for better entry points and carry some OTM puts 5% away for the inevitable melt down.

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8/17/14 - Once NFLX broke out above my T1 line, the bulls were in charge. The gap from July has been filled and so long as NFLX hold over $455 it has upside to test the all time highs. With market momentum, we should see the stock make an attempt to reach $500 in the coming weeks so I will be looking for any opportunity to get long on pull back as long as the stock remains above T1 and the SGB zone at $445.00. I am going to fish for a couple of Bear Call Spreads since my last one was assigned over the weekend. I have to make up a $0.50 cent debit and will do so over the next couple of trades.

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8/12/14 - The weekly chart is resolving to a SGB and I am looking for NFLX to give up $444.00 which is my pivot price point. No way NFLX is dropping below 405 by expiration, so I am rolling out my Bear Call Spread to AugWk5 and a higher strike price.

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8/10/14 - I am looking for NFLX to take a break and pull back under my T1 line so I am attempting another round of puts this week. I am still longer term bullish and if NFLX should take off this week and get back over $455, then I will consider ITM Bull Put Spreads.

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8/6/14 - NFLX put on a rally today in connection with the Time Warner and Comcast deal falling apart. As you know, NFLX was not in support of that merger so investors took this as a positive sign that battles over content traffic will not be impeded or monopolized by their largest service provider. What NFLX did do was stop short (well EXACTLY) on my T1 line. The stock is still in a massive W pattern that is showing weakness so I am looking for a solid move in the coming days. I have all my positions in place and will look at adding a couple more on Friday for next week.

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8/4/14 - Sticking under T1 so I am going to start speculating on the puts tomorrow and pick up a couple calls just in case, but I think this stock is headed lower in August if no news comes out to change current trends.

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7/27/14 - Continued weakness and any bounce to T1 that fails I get aggressively short. If NFLX gaps down on Monday, I will look for a 15min bounce and a failure I get short.

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7/22/14 - As I predicted, $444 was the sign to SHORT this stock and that is what I did today. With a close below my T1 line I am looking for NFLX to continue to sell off the rest of the week but it's highly unlikely to get a devastating blow as long as the markets are strong. After all, the company made record profits and has a ton of future compelling news to keep investors interested after they take profits. I see strong support at $400 or just above the 89MA. Also, the 200MA is converging with the 89MA and if that crosses over, that is very bullish to technicians.

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7/21/14 - NFLX profits double and the the stock barely moves higher in after hours...what? You would think it would have exploded higher like CMG did, but apparently the BIG money is just not willing to buck up for the ridiculous multiple this stock trades at. The main reason for the lack of enthusiasm is the company said it "may" raise prices in the U.S. by $1 per month so that most likely scared off the big money investors since they are all about earnings and it's an unknown if the price hike will cause a customer stampeded out the door. We know this company has been looking to raise prices for a while and when they tried a couple of years ago, investors DUMPED the shares so that pain is no doubt still in the minds of every investor. Like I pointed out last night that the $444 close is most likely "code" today's after hours close is another interesting number at 455 which is a Fibonacci number (55). I know it may be a bit tinfoil head stuff for you, but I have traded for 17+ years and let me assure you, closing numbers MEAN THINGS and I pay special attention to Fibonacci, unusual combination numbers like 555, 666, 444 and 33.

Taking a look at today's charts and we have a perfect DOJI close on both the daily and weekly, so that is MORE confirmation NFLX is showing WEAKNESS. The expected MMM move was set at +/- $30.15 and NFLX is NOT even close to hitting that on the upside, so that leaves the downside as the likely target if selling kicks in tomorrow.

The company's profit rose to $71 million, or $1.15 per share, from $29.5 million, or 49 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose to $1.34 billion from $1.07 billion.

Analysts on average had expected $1.16 per share in profit on revenue of $1.34 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Netflix also repeated its opposition to the planned merger of Comcast Corp and Time Warner Cable Inc. The company called on regulators to block the merger or place a condition that would prevent the combined company from charging interconnection fees to deliver video over their broadband networks.

Stocks that do NOT meet expectations often get DUMPED after earnings reports, and since they had no "new" or "exciting" announcements on the conference call, the probability of a "sell the news" event is more likely to happen this week.

Even though the company has a corner on the market for content and subscribers, they do NOT have a monopoly on the distribution of their content...this is the Achilles' heel of this stock; and if they are looking to regulators to curb a merger from their biggest content delivery channel, then you have to figure that has the potential to be a very BIG negative impact; and since investors have a ton of profits since the last quarterly report, they have a lot to protect.

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7/20/14 - Time for earnings tomorrow and NFLX is looking ready to make a good move; however, like all the other stocks this cycle, the IV is massively pumped up and NFLX has 80% IV which is the highest I have seen in a while. That indicates Market Makers are very nervous about this stocks potential so they have a ton of protection priced in. Of course, that translates to FREE money for premium selling if the stock fails to move beyond the MMM move of +/- 30.57. So, we look to sell Bull Put and Bear Call spreads one strike outside that move and have a 80% chance of making money!

The daily and weekly charts have been hugging my T1 line (I know, I am a technical calculating genius) and Friday's close was pegged at $444.17, which I have mentioned several times to watch the $444 level!

As you may know, the number 4 represents DEATH in Chinese lore so is that "code" the market makers are about to KILL this stock? Well the monthly chart currently has my infamous SGB short signal and so does the Quarterly chart!

I am sure analysts will be eager to hear how the recent price hike from Q2 has worked out. If that has no negative impace, and earnings and more importantly subscriptions increased, then we will most likely see NFLX rise to new all time highs.

If the stock fails the Cup-n-Handle pattern, it's highly likely it will entry a bearish cycle.

In my 17+ years of trading experience, I have learned that when the crowd can easily recognize patterns that are widely taught to confirm a bias, that is the time to do the OPPOSITE!

We need to look for more clues in the options volume and open interest to help us determine how to overweight a bias.

What are the headlines saying, most seem to be leery the stock can keep going higher.

There is MORE reason for this stock to go DOWN than UP so a miss and LOOK OUT BELOW.

I am fishing on the $410 Puts at the open and if NFLX goes up, I will wait until later in the day and buy a higher strike.

I am anticipating some big volatility after earnings so lets hope we get a White Whale trade on Tuesday.

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7/14/14 - OOPS, my bad, I had the wrong strike on the 400 puts so I am hoping you figured it out based on the current price posted and realized its JulWk4 so we are NOT filled yet and NFLX had a a stellar day today too. I am changing my entry price on the $405 to $2.00. Since NFLX took off out of the gate today, my $440 fishing price was never going to happen so I cancelled most of my trades and I am going to wait until earnings to make a lotto play.

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7/13/14 - I was NOT filled on my fishing orders so I cancelled them and will start looking for my next entry points as we get closer to earnings. This week is July expiration so there will be more volatility than usual.

This past week, NFLX tested my T1 (Monthly Chart) line and there is also a Bear 180 setup which makes for interesting trade opportunities. With earnings coming next Monday the 21st, we should see NFLX attempt to stick around the current pricing level unless some upsetting or exciting news hits the wires early this week.

As you know from several WINNING NFLX plays posted to this site, this stock has the potential to make your YEAR on earnings reports; and with the stock making all time highs and then falling immediately back under previous all time highs, we have HUGE volatility which makes for even BIGGER LOTTO TRADES!!!

Lately a couple of upgrades have been rolling in with the latest from Raymond James on Friday with a new price target of $500 from $450. That could be a sucker punch upgrade since it came in AFTER the stock makes new all time highs and sharply pulled back, so it's SUSPECT to me.

As for others, Barclays initiated an UNDERWEIGHT rating while Evercore upgraded from Equal to Overweight according to Yahoo Finance upgrade/downgrade history, Evercore (EVR) has not initiated coverage on NFLX in the past, so it most likely will have no significant impact on investors minds; however, these firms are by no means stock movers, but it shows you some divergence in opinions and that always makes for more volatility. Oh, and do not forget, on July 1st, GS upgraded NFLX with a price target of $590, but we know from past experience, when GS speaks, SHORT...lol.

I decided to take a deeper look at what Barclays track record has been to see if they have any upgrade/downgrade weight with investors and their track record shows they are decidedly WRONG more than they are right in my opinion....that is why you subscribe to hear what I have to say...I am definitely MORE accurate than just about everyone out there so stick with me and it's PROFITS UP!!!!

As for other news, Carl Icahn is saying he is becoming very cautious; and that most likely led to the BIG reversal in NFLX last week since he has/had a very large share stake in the company. The key to NFLX's upside is if the stock can CLOSE back over the previous all time high of $458 set back in Feb 2014, but if they do not report MUCH BETTER than analyst expectations, get ready to make some MONEY on the puts; however, this stock has so much potential to move big in either direction, you can have a straddle in play over earnings and then speculate on a couple Lotto Plays—the only bummer is the earnings are on a Monday and that means all the option strikes will be expensive.

Next, I want to keep an eye on the options volume this week to see if there are some large buys on Calls or Puts, and so far, there is a lot more activity on the calls side indicating the heard is bullish, so a miss gives us a much bigger profit opportunity on the put side.

For this week, I am looking for a couple day trade scalps here and there, so I plan on fishing for some $440 calls if we get an initial dip on Monday/Tue and if we get an immediate rise, then I will sell a few Bull Put Spreads and try to capture some premium.

Next week we buy some Lotto Calls/Puts the day of earnings and then fish for a White Whale after we see how the stock reacts to earnings in after hours—hope we catch a Moby Dick White Whale!!!

The monthly chart shows us this stock has been on a rocket ride higher for the past 21 months! Now that can certainly continue but there is definitely a lot more room to come crashing back down in the short term, and that is what happened a couple of quarters back for a total of 158 points. Heck, just in the past week, the stock dropped $48.00 bucks!

The daily and weekly charts show us we are in the midst of a Bear 180 pull back and with Friday's SGB, NFLX needs to get back over the $444 price I pointed out in past commentary. If the stock fails the monthly T1 line or it's definitely ready to fall to the 89/200MA on a bad earnings report. My Bear 180 target is a test of T2 and then if it can hold, the stock has big potential to make an earnings run back to the B180 T1 price range.

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7/9/14 - Sinking sand is what appears to be the case for NFLX, but if my T1 line holds, and the markets get a move on from here, I expect NFLX to hold the line and start to edge higher. I moved down my Bull Put Spread strike and and time frame.

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7/7/14 - No continuation today with last weeks huge rally which indicates that it was NOT a rally but rather more like short covering. The test will be if NFLX can hold last weeks gap and with earnings coming, I suspect investors will not be all to eager to invest ahead of them since the stock is already up $150 from the last quarter. All time highs that are taken out on "upgrade" news, are ALWAYS suspect so selling premium spreads is a safe way to speculate. My plans are to fish on $.10 cent options DITM and DOTM as we approach earnings and I am anticipating a HUGE Lotto / White Whale play when that day comes!

We are getting close to a fill on the Jul Wk2 Bull Put Spread so if we get a gap down tomorrow that should happen, and maybe at a better price! If the stock takes off over $470, then sell the Bull Put Spread or get long Calls.

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7/1/14 - What the heck? DANG! I was one day too late. I knew this stock was ready to make a huge move and today was a BIG one. Now the question is will it be the TOP and drop since Goldman Sachs was the firm that upgraded the stock? Typically, when GS gets in with a buy rating, that is the TOP...lol

I cancelled my Bear Call Spread this morning and obviously not filled on the Bull Put Spread, so now I am looking for the next opportunity to get in on the action.

We have earnings coming and I have no doubt this one will give us a HUGE White Whale opportunity in the near future. As for the rest of the week, well, you just cannot fight a stock that takes out all time highs on strong volume; however, we may get an exhaustion gap and sharp pull back tomorrow, so get ready to fish for some Lotto trades.

It PAYS to fish for OTM options each week on stocks like NFLX. Just look at the %Change today...WOW

Many times a stock of this caliber, will rally for two to three days on positive news, and you can anticipate at least a 10% move, so that means NFLX still has the potential to rise to $485-490 by Thursday if the markets continue to rally higher this week. Remember, the markets are CLOSED on Friday for 4th of July.

There is a MASSIVE amount of premium packed into these calls that I am sure the market makers would love nothing more than to crush that back into their coffers, so the best bet on a gap up tomorrow would be to sell the 480's Naked or 480/485 Jul Wk1 Bear Call Spread as those will most likely expire worthless on Thursday. If we get a gap down, and it holds in the first 5-15 minutes, then any shorts from today will freak and COVER most likely driving NFLX to peg $480.00 or $485.00.

A sure bet for next week would be to sell some OTM Bull Put Spreads under $460 but FISH for a much better entry price because IV is PUMPED up everywhere on this stock right now.

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6/30/14 - This stock is getting ready to make the next move and with earnings coming in three weeks I am anticipating a little bit of a run to the all time high at $458, maybe vent test $460.00. I have been watching how the stock has been trading around $444.00 and so far that has been keeping the bulls at bay. This stock has been a tare the past two months and is very close to taking out it's all time high 450.82. It will take a big news event or strong earnings to get NFLX into new territory but we know that can easily happen. Of course, if markets and news turns worse, NFLX is poised to drop a lot more than it can go up in the short term so we need to keep some OTM puts on tap because any drop will happen way too fast for us to get in on the juicy action. I am going to start with some DITM Bull Put and Bear Call Spreads tomorrow, and then fish for some Lotto / White Whale trades on Wed for Thursday pre holiday trading.

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Total slaughter after earnings just like CMG. This stock is in a lot of trouble and has a LONG WAY TO DROP. Watch for a rebound to test the 200MA if the markets are strong and if that fails, short aggressively. If we get more selling tomorrow, I will look for a bounce at my T3 Level.

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4/23/14 - Investors hit the sell button on news that HBO was going to make their content available to the competition! My White Whale trade is BANKING...HOOKED another one. With the AAPL news, pretty sure all investors will be lining up to get in on that action which means dump city on other stuff to free up capital. NFLX may very well continue to slide to the 200MA before finding buyers again.

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4/22/14 - Not much follow through today and we have a nice gap up SGB. If the stock cannot take out the 89MA its very subject to a reversal of fortune over the next three days of trading. Now if AAPL and FB earnings coming out tomorrow strong, NFLX may just trend higher on their good news; and if they are bad, we could very well see NFLX counter trend and go higher still but I do not think that will be the case so long as the 89MA is not taken out. I was excited to see my WW puts get crushed and I added more contracts at a massive discount. If NFLX starts to slip lower in early trading, I will sell a couple of ITM 350/355 Bear Call Spreads for May.

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4/21/14 - NFLX beats estimates, gains on revenue and is raising prices on new subscribers = higher prices in after hours trading. Will it hold or will we get investor fall out? Well, CMG is raising prices and gets crushed, but NFLX gets a pass in post market trading indicating investors are happy and expected it to happen so NFLX is poised to continue the rise tomorrow up to $400. NOw depending on the pre market action, I will be fishing for some WW puts; however, the prices of the options are so over inflated, this is definitely not a tradition pennies on the dollar trade. The other way to play is just sell bear call credit spreads if NFLX fails to hold over $375 tomorrow.

The weekly chart has NFLX in a full on Level 2 Bull 180 so if we get a continuation higher, I fully expect this stock to reach into the last SGB zone around $405.00

After hours action was strong once the initial read on earnings worked out, but not much follow through during the conference call so tomorrow we look for the pop and drop.

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4/20/14 - The big day for NFLX is tomorrow and we are in for some fireworks no doubt. NFLX has been a great trade opportunity at earnings for years, and this time around, we may have a massive White Whale trade opportunity! Last week the stock was upgraded by a small firm with a 12 month price target of $500 so the stock rallied on that news. Hmmm, could it be the classic pump-n-dump? The stock is beat down over 20% so it's expected to be heading higher since it moved back over the 200MA right? Well, that really depends on the conference call and revenue projections on Tuesday.

and options are fully pumped up with premium ahead of this move so it's difficult to make the big bucks unless the stock goes super sonic like it has in the past.

As for tomorrow, I will trade a small straddle tomorrow. I will also do a Bull Call Spread.

My plan for post earnings is to play for the White Whale pop and drop depending on the after hours trading activity, so I will be fishing for puts inside 5% out of the money on Tuesday morning because if NFLX disappoints, this stock will drop well under the 200MA next week.

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4/12/14 - The 200MA failed to hold giving the bears some ammunition for next week; however, the continued selling was light so I do not think investors are in panic mode yet. If NFLX opens back over the 200MA I will sell a small Bull Put Spread position just to test the waters. Now if NFLX fails the rise over the 200MA I will buy some 300 Puts.

We now have a 5 week drop and if we get green bar started on Monday then you can go for a small Level 2 Bull 180 setup. but a strict stop at $320 if I get filled at the open.

I am still fishing for my straddle play and if NFLX gaps down on Monday, then I will cancel and wait to see if it gets down to T2

I did not get filled on my two white whale trades. Earnings season is starting next week so get ready to catch some BIG WHALES!!

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4/10/14 - This NFLX is now resting on the daily 200MA and tomorrow will be the test that looks like it will fail to hold if the markets continue to slide lower. The moves in this stock and the markets today indicate this stock is getting DUMPED. If NFLX does not move back over $340 tomorrow, I am going with Bear Call Spreads and Puts and shorting the stock. There was an analyst on Fast Money today saying this stock is headed to $250 or lower based on valuation to earnings gong forward. We know this stock was massively hyped up last year with Icahn and others, but in the long run, competition is only going to eat away at margins. Now if and until NFLX raises prices, this stock will see continued pressure. I think they can get away with a price increase this time since AMZN raised prices and the stock was not pummeled on the initial news. With that being said, you have to pick your side and buy protection to the upside deep OTM calls.

The close tomorrow is going to be critical to the future direction, and if the stock manages a reversal, we have the making of a Level 2 Bull 180 in play, but long term, I see continued slide under my T3 line.

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3/30/14 - The meltdown in NFLX was HUGE and now it's right at my T2 so I expect some rebound movement this week if the markets are favorable. If not, I am looking for a test of the 200MA.

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3/20/14 - NFLX finally has an up day that was met with sellers closing the stock below the 8MA on the weekly chart. With one more day to trade, we will see if there is any follow through. I took my profits on my BPS and will look for another entry point. With the stock getting dumped for the past 11 days, it will take some positive news to lift this one back up over $450. Now if AAPL makes the big announcement and treads into video on demand, NFLX will get crushed at first. If you want to play this one, you have to do straddles. The selling was controlled indicating institutional money was not dumping the stock most likely.

I have not been filled on my fishing Puts yet and now that the stock has pulled back, I will cancel that order for now. My other plays are not going to do well this week. Earnings season is going to kick in soon so the volatility will be back in the stock and we will make some HUGE Profits!

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3/16/14 - Profit takers all week have brought NFLX down to the 8MA on the weekly chart which must hold to keep dip buyers interested. With AAPL news pending on new products and a possible announcement they are getting into the streaming business, that should keep some pressure on NFLX; however, with the markets selling of pretty good this past week, NFLX has not really dropped like it can if investors panic. This is a potential opportunity for us to make some good profits when unexpected news hits and panic sets in, so we need to fish for some DOTM puts at key levels like the 89MA on the daily and T2. If the overall markets fail current key support levels, I think NFLX will accelerate downward and test $400 which where I believe bargain shoppers are waiting, but if the drop is dramatic, those bids will easily be cancelled and NFLX head to my T2 target. If the stock can get back over my T1 level, then I will sell some Bull Put Spreads to finance some OTM calls plays.

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3/9/14 - Chart looking weak. NFLX has now completed 8 trading days of sideways action and I am expecting some movement this week so I am still fishing for some bearish plays

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3/5/14 - Still not getting any earth shattering news out of AAPL or NFLX but investors are bidding up this stock with the markets rebound and we are close to taking out the all time high. Of course, this means another potential bust for my put plays this week, but I will just keep fishing until I connect with a winner.

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3/2/14 - No big news out of the AAPL shareholder meeting means no moves in NFLX. We did get a selling day, but we needed a meltdown to cash in on the lotto tickets. This is why we never bet the house money on these trades as they are 100% speculation with a 95% failure rate. What we do now is keep fishing but now we have to fish on both sides with a bias to the short side when we get the next SGB signal.

I have adjusted my T-Levels and will have my puts in play about 8% OTM with an initial profit target at T2 on the Monthly Chart. As you know, I use certain Fibonacci numbers to layer my entry and exit points and we have good setups on all time frames. To me, that means NFLX is ready for the next measured move and for now, that bias is still to the upside. This is when I like to be the contrarian when everything says one direction is the way; however, we need an event to trigger the contrarian entry points and that is the looming news to effect negative change for NFLX is that AAPL will step into the streaming space in a big way. I was looking for that news to be released on Friday, and so was just about everyone else, but the CEO did not announce and so AAPL pulled back. What is interesting, is NFLX continued to slide lower so that tells me there is still speculation interest that NFLX will be impacted.

I am going to continue to fish for some puts on NFLX and do some Bull Put Spreads to help finance everything. If NFLX does start the week higher, then I will continue to sell more Bull Put Spreads.

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2/27/14 - I am filled and in for the duration. Hope to cash in a Lotto Ticket but if not, I will attempt this again next week.

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2/26/14 - There is something about to happen that could make us a BAZILLION BUCKS! I know it's pure speculation but that is what make the BIGGEST WHITE WHALE MEGA LOTTO plays.

NOTE: DO NOT BET THE HOUSE ON THIS...THERE WILL ALWAYS BE MORE IN THE FUTURE...but the risk reward is good enough to get in the game!

My speculation is that AAPL will announce they are going to get into the streaming biz this Friday at the conference. Now if that happens, I expect the stock to explode higher and NFLX to get crushed.

However, I am buying one Mar Wk 1 call just in cast AAPL actually buys NFLX. We have the slightly OTM puts and the heavy contract load to clean up if we get that massive drop.

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1/29/14 - Cha-ching! I was profit stopped out today on my NFLX 400 Jan Wk5 calls!!! Now that NFLX has broke out over $400 and closed above it today, it has to close above it the rest of the week or I see a full retest of $380. I will be looking for another entry point soon.

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1/27/14 - Not a big enough bounce but my calls were filled and doubled but I am holding on to see what the week brings.

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1/25/14 - Bummer on that $400+ print which would have happened had not the entire market crashed for the week. Considering the massive 318 point drop on the DOW, Netflix held ground very nicely indicating it will head to $400 if this is not the turn and burn for the markets. We did not get any White Whale opportunities on Friday but there will be another opportunity in the future on NFLX.

For next week, I am still looking for NFLX to make a play for $400 since it held strong in the face of the market getting crushed Friday. For so long, every time the Dow took a dip it was bought. I am not so sure this will be the case this year, but where else can you put your money to work? Until the FED actually does tapper, I think the markets are going to just take an occasional breather and that is what appears to be going on now. Do you think if Friday's drop really had teeth, big money would be dumping NFLX after a 17% pop on strong earnings? Well, if this week is the beginning of the end for the Bulls, there is no doubt in my mind NFLX can and will drop in price but if this is just business as usual, NFLX is a sure bet to move on beyond $400. What we need is some confirmation and that is why I am looking for a move back over $393.00 to get aggressive on long plays.

I will be fishing for a few JanWk5 $400's on Monday just to test the waters but we really can't judge the overall markets until we finish up Jan 2014 trading.

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1/23/14 - Cashed in on another successful Lotto Trade!! Keeping one on for tomorrow just in case the stock takes off and takes out $400. Loaded up on some White Whale Calls and looking to fish for some more tomorrow in anticipation of NFLX taking out $400.

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I expect to see this stock easily take out $400 tomorrow especially if it holds $380.00 on any potential profit taking. Ok, so if you are long the calls you will have a very nice profit at the open so be sure to lock up at least 50% of your position and let the rest ride into Friday if NFLX does get over $403.00 in early trading and holds over $400 after the first 30 - 60 minutes.

We will have to see how things look in pre-market and hope we get a nice White Whale trade opportunity filled. I am expecting this stock to make a move over $400 in pre-market; however, I would prefer an initial profit taking drop no more than $10 and then the move is on for plus $400 into Friday. If you recall below, I said that the only way this stock will explode is if they raise subscription prices right? Well, if you read between the lines, that is exactly what they are doing with a very well placed tier plan. What a beautiful way to ultimately raise the prices without scaring off the sheeple subscribers (yahhh-hhh-hhh) and that my trading friends is why NFLX is up dang near 18% in after hours—IT'S ON FOR $1,000 a share in the future.

Below are the closing prices for this weeks options so we will be able to see how much ROI would be made across several strikes tomorrow when I post the results.

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1/19/14 - New year and new opportunities with a lot of high beta stocks and NFLX has been on FIRE almost taking out $400 but failed to do do it TWICE! To me, this means big money (including Carl Icahn) has left the building and without them, this stock is poised to get crushed. If you recall, activist investor Carl Icahn did say he unloaded half his position back on the last earning quarter and the stock was heavily sold off that week. Heck, even the CEO chimed in the stocks price was unusually high. After that initial dump. the big money just pumped and forced a strong short covering rally that sustained itself and almost erased the entire drop. I haven't been doing any trading in NFLX since my last post back in November because I wanted to let thing settle out and see if this stock has any more legs. I did not see any topping tails form so why bother. I think this stock has run it's course in 2013 and now it has to prove itself with some REAL growth and expansion.

The biggest boost this stock could get will be an increase in its monthly rates. That would take this stock to $1,000 per share but if you recall the last time they tried to shake up the subscriptions, the stock was decimated dang near to BK. Now that they have gained so much momentum and favor with the public, I think the could actually get away with a price increase especially if they announce a stronger more relevant streaming line up. This company is pretty much fully ingrained in the minds of everyone as the source for on demand entertainment, and they are just about fully integrated in every device on the market so I do not see them going anywhere soon but UP but we know how that can change on a dime so never get married to an opinion...we are traders!

Get ready for the upcoming earnings release on Wednesday because NFLX has been heavily sold off the past four weeks and if they announce a surprise the shorts are going to cover in mass. I have recalculated my T-Targets and the stock made a perfect bounce on T1 which is the pivot point for my entry points. If they disappoint, you can bet your bottom dollar this stock will not find massive support until the 200 MA which is where I know whales like Icahn are waiting to start buying gain. My upside targets are $345-355 and the 200 MA or more likely T2. We have a real trade opportunity here because they report on Wed. and we get two days until expiration so I am sure this stock is going to be the one in play with the big money out there.

I will fishing for a White Whale trade on Thursday and Friday this week so get ready and let's hope to bag another Moby Dick!

The quarterly chart is the one I am using for gauging the long term direction for NFLX.

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11/4/13 - Bulls are still optimistic that NFLX is going to erase that HUGE reversal bar. We are now firmly in the gap zone and until NFLX can close over a 55% Fibonacci Retracement, it will be vulnerable to a reversal of fortune. Remember, Icahn has said he liquidated 50% of his holdings but that does not mean he has not been dumping the rest right now. The clues to more seller will be any topping tails that develop tomorrow and on the weekly chart at $345.00.

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10/29/13 - The selling was stopped today as the markets bounced and NFLX took off. Tomorrow is the FOMC meeting and if there is not an upset, this market is ready to just keep right on moving higher. I am not so sure NFLX or other higher flyers like AAPL, GOOG, AMZN etc, will also take off too. Usually stocks tend to slow down ahead of the FOMC, but today, they all took off. This could be a pump and dump scenario but I will trade what I get.

This stock has one HUGE reversal bar to take out, but that is the kind of mountain investors like to climb if this stock can get back over $333.50. NFLX still has to clear out the gaps at $350 to assure the bulls this rebound is here to says so until then, any rally attempt is suspect and some puts should be added.

I had a few Nov Wk 1 320 puts and apparently I did not have a stop in place this morning so my nice sized profit was wiped out and it's not looking good for them to get back to even a break even. I will have to just adjust and pick ups some spreads to pay for this botched trade.

If NFLX does get back over $330 tomorrow, then I will sell a Nov 13 310 Naked Put and maybe a couple Bull Put spreads if I can get some juicy enough premium.

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10/23/13 - No drop and pop, but the stock did tack on a nice $7.72 rebound. I sold the puts at the open for a small gain and traded calls during the day. GOOG caught a bid and took off to new all time highs today and that no doubt lifted NFLX in its wake so we may very well see this stock regain all of yesterdays Icahn profit taking. The key level to get the party going is a move over $333.50 and a close over $340.

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10/22/13 - NFLX beats earnings but gets crushed today primarily due to the comments the CEO made about the stocks overly high valuation and we also found out that Carl dumped 3 million shares. Dang! I was right about my $333 speculation, I was just wrong about the day it was going to get the big crush! Once I saw the stock was not going to take out $400 I started to short stock and buy puts but I was stopped out multiple times on several trades due to the extreme volatility. I am a bit ticked off I had my WW puts in way too high but I did not expect the stock to give back ALL the gains. I will be diligent next time and ready to pounce. This day should have been a $250k day for my account with the $330 and $350 puts. Sometimes you just get caught up in the action and forget about the goal. My STRONG advice for you is trade off 15 minute charts. Had I done that, I would have easily seen the stock was failing and then bought the appropriate shorts positions and banked a lot better than I did. I am short some 310 puts going into tomorrow and I am looking for some more selling to kick in. Hopefully it will be a gap down and drop to $290 then the stock finds buyers and we get a massive rally. Then again, I would be very happy to see this stock drop all the way back to $250 this week.

Get ready to fish for some WW trades in the morning and speculate on the OTM puts and calls again. I bought some Nov Wk 1 400 calls just in case all this selling was way overdone and the stock finds buyers again. I will also be picking up some more OTM puts tomorrow if the stock fails to move higher after the first 15 minutes of trading.

Carl did tweet in after hours he sold off half his shares but still thinks the stock is under valued so we could get an initial drop and then a nice pop-run tomorrow now that his chips are off the table many investors will view this as a great BUY opportunity. Remember, the company did beat estimates and is gaining ground; has the love of the public again; and that is what the big money buyers look for, so NFLX is definitely going to find a bottom soon and start a move back into new heights if the markets support higher ground.

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10/21/13 - NFLX kills earnings and the stock stops just short of $400 in after hours trading! Well, I guess that magic number $333.50 is going to just be unlucky for the shorts tomorrow. Of course, we still have pre-market to get NFLX over $400 which is what I am looking for in pre=market tomorrow, heck, we may just see NFLX ramp up to $444.50 this week.

The conference call went well and the stock responded with a sold gain for the last hour of post market trading. This is very bullish indeed; however, I would have much preferred this stock reached the initial high or took it out tonight. So, what can we anticipate for tomorrow? Well, remember, there is a huge activist investor out there (Carl Icahn who has said he has NOT sold any shares YET; but if he was starting to take profits tonight—and he should be with over 150 million from just today alone—then that could be the reason the stock was not moving beyond $400. There was definitely sellers so we need to be vigilant in our trading discipline tomorrow. There should be a slew of upgrades kicking in tomorrow, and as you know, analysts are ALWAYS late to the party...lol.

Ok, my plan is to take profits on my long calls and fish for a WW trade on some puts. If NFLX holds ground after the first 15 minutes of trading, then I will get long again with more calls. The future for NFLX is definitely super bright now and everyone is in love with this stock so it's got a lot of staying power for the rest of the year—just keep some puts in place just in case the overall markets take a turn for the worse.

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10/19/13 - NFLX earnings are Monday after the bell and this is going to be a HUGE quarterly report for the company. The monthly chart is going parabolic so a surprise beat/announcement can send this stock straight to $400 a share. Then again, a miss and you know what is going to happen here. Unfortunately, this is a Monday so all the options are EXPENSIVE and this may not be for everyone so if you have a small account, then wait for the news and fish for a WW trade the next morning. I am going to take a long shot on some Oct Wk 4 $425 calls and some NovWk1 250 puts.

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9/26/13 - NFLX attempted to take out my $315 trigger price today and if the markets rally tomorrow, I expect that is what will happen. I am going to do some WW fishing on this one tomorrow because I do not like the Three Crows but they are split apart (they have more weight when they are three consecutive days in a row) and then it was followed by a Bear Elephant bar. I am not that confident NFLX can get back over $320 with all this bearish chatter but this market and most stocks have totally IGNORED all bear signals and continued to drive higher in spite of common sense. What we need is a parabolic rise so until I see that, I will keep buying calls and hedging with OTM puts because if and when the drop comes, it will be HUGE.

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9/18/13 - I am looking for the next setup and so far, this pattern is looking ready to make a big move. The weekly and monthly chart is still very bullish so that is my bias

The monthly chart still has NFLX in full Bull Mode and approaching parbolic proportions. The only thing missing is huge volume? If we see a spike higher then volume will have to really kick in. Lower with heavy volume them GET SHORT

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9/15/13 - NFLX stopped just under the upper wick of yesterday's DOJI indicating big money is looking for more confirmation. If NFLX does not get back over $310 then I will be looking for short plays down to T1.

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9/12/13 - The downgrade sell momentum picked up today as NFLX gapped down and headed lower finding support at the 8MA and closing as a long legged DOJI. If tomorrow is a spooky Friday the 13th, we may get a scary drop and then pop but I am expecting a gap and crap. If the SGB is taken out, profit taking will accelerate. Today's range is the pivot point for me on longs vs. shorts.

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9/11/13 - NFLX has arrived at record all time highs despite a downgrade. Will that downgrade carry more weight going forward, or will NFLX investors shrug it off and keep on buying? Well, last time NFLX was this high you can see it was severely crushed. That devastating started off with a bad quarter and no content deals. This time they have tons of content deals emerging but still, the company basically looses money and the business model is vulnerable to major upset with customers if they cannot deliver that content. This company will always be in volatile waters becuase they do not own the distribution of their content. For now that does not matter and this stock is one of the top success Kings of 2013. There could still be some oomph left in this week so I will be looking for trade opportunities during the day.

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9/10/13 - BAM! News story hits and NFLX takes off to all time closing highs!! WOW! I bought some calls this morning and banked the profits. I also day traded shares for some profits too. I am looking for a retracement tomorrow but I expect up to a 10% move higher before things change. The momentum is amazing to say the least. Just be ready for the drops becuase the profits are HUGE and most investors are going to be eager but greedy so we want to see that parabolic capitulation event in the future.

My puts most likely don't stand a chance so I will manage those losses into other trades in the future.

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9/9/13 - That SGB is going to make or break NFLX this week. I suspect that if we get a continuation of today's rally, NFLX will rise with the tide and if things go negative, this stock has more reason to go down now that up for the time being. You know investors (small and novice) are eager to see this stock close at record all time highs, but it's just going to need the support of the institutional money to get it there...I think they want to see it too.

I bought the 280 puts since I got a much cheaper price by the end of the day, I added more contracts. I am still fishing on the call side..

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9/8/13 - War news killed the potential of a +$300 rally, so my White Whale trades did not go as planned. I was filled at the open on the 300's at .05 cents and they were trading as high as $0.10 cents but once the president started talking everything died. I dumped them for $0.40 cents and let the 310's go.

Now that the SGB has resulted in a confirmed bear signal, NFLX is vulnerable to more selling until that SGB is taken out. It could easily be done on Monday with a market wide rally so getting aggressively short is not that enticing to me. I know that if NFLX does take out $300 it should easily reach a new all time high on a closing basis so I will continue to speculate on $305 - $310 OTM calls on any bounce. I am also going to start accumulating puts above T1.

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NFLX stopped just short of $300. I was hoping for a blow up and out, but not happening yet...maybe tomorrow for expiration. I took profits on my WW and Lotto trades. I am holding on a couple of others.

I am going fishing tomorrow for another WW trade tomorrow morning anticipating a breakout over $300. I am going for a BIG pay off and will hold on for the day if NFLX gets over $300 just in case it catches a bid and really takes off. NOTE: THIS PARTICULAR TRADE WILL BE ALL OR NOTHING FOR ME on the calls.

I am going to look for a continuation breakout over $300 tomorrow and if it fails to hold over $300 or fills this gap, then I will pick up some more Sep13 Puts.

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9/3/13 - September kicks off with a rally and NFLX joins showing strength and closing in on $300! I suspect this stock will get there this week if not tomorrow and there is more than likely some strong selling resistance around that benchmark price. All sings are pointing to much higher prices and if the markets do not get crushed then NFLX is a leader for top stock of 2013.

The monthly chart has NFLX in a very STRONG momentum phase and this is the 12th month of solid upside which shows no signs of stopping; however, anything can happen and looking at the last time were were up here the results were devastating for long players. History does repeat itself so be ready to act if I give the signal ...wink wink...lol.

If NFLX goes parabolic, I expect that move to be up to a 15% move so my upside target from here is $333.00 - $350.00

A failure to take out the All Time Intra Day high then NFLX is an easy drop to T2

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8/29/13 - It's looking like NFLX wants to rip the top off and touch the sky...lol

Pretty soon my theme song for this stock is going to be Lenny Kravitz' song: Fly Away unless your an oldie but goodie like Ichan, then most likely it will be Sinatra: Fly Me To The Moon...lol

My 270 calls are packed with profits and with tomorrow being expiration I am hoping for a gap up so I can cash in with BIG gains.

We know this stock has the ability to get CRUSHED, so if the turn comes, it will be loud and clear in the charts and that is what I am looking for. What a ride if you were on this one from the Icahn beginning. We have had 4 weeks of solid upside and it's looking like 5 is a lock. The war speculation is not having any effect on this stock so if we do go to war, this one could very well be one the big money parks their money into. Heck, it's on the rise for a great future and a whole heck of a lot cheaper than AAPL, PCLN, GOOG so it's only logical this stock has the probabilities to be the strongest of the bunch in a negative environment. Of course, it can and most likely will pull back, but I expect any pull back to be met with opportunity buyers who are kicking them selves (me being one of them) for not getting aggressively long a couple of months back. I am not willing to be a chaser of missed opportunities, but I am willing to accumulate on opportunities wherever I can.

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8/27/13 - Topping out or topping off? As I said before, this stock wants to head to higher HIGH ground, but it will trade in the direction of the markets and or now, that is to the downside. But when the markets find a bottom/support, NFLX will be a leader to rise again so watch for this stock to reach the 8MA and/or the 21MA on the daily chart for your next long entry positions.

The markets are getting pretty shaky right now and NFLX has HUGE profits to protect so I am not going long aggressively until NFLX closes back over T1 and takes out yesterdays high.

My $270 calls may very well get profit stopped out this week so I am ready for that and planning my next moves.

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8/25/13 - This stock is looking for new all time highs and it's going to get there if the markets keep moving higher. NFLX is well within striking distance of $300 so get ready for some action. If it fails to hold $270 then look out below.

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8/22/13 - SGB is now the support as NFLX powered on through it making an impressive run off new content news and overall Icahn euphoria. Today test of the all time highs and it's looking very good for NFLX to keep right on pushing higher taking out the all time high at $304.79...wow.

The charts are in no way suggesting otherwise, but you have to ready for anything because if this stock falls from grace again, well, just look at the drop last time and you can get a good idea of the PROFITS to be made. I remember way back then, I told my subscribers NFLX was a SHORT so be ready when I say it is again.

For now, we are looking for this stock to definitely reach $300 plus in the next couple of weeks to month as we kick off back to school and the final quarter of 2013.

I picked up and sold my $270 calls. Looking for my next trade opportunity tomorrow.

Speaking of final quarters, the quarterly chart looks amazing for the bulls, but take notice that this would be considered a parabolic move and those are not sustainable without some support.

We still have a month of trading to complete the quarter, so NFLX needs to stay above $260 to have a very strong probability of making a new ALL TIME Closing high and so far, that is what it looks like to me.

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8/16/13 - So far, this top SGB is showing its strength to keep a lid on NFLX. Thursday was a sharp decline and Friday expiration could be the kiss goodbye if NFLX does not get back over the range this week. So far, these past two weeks have retraced over 55% of that Bear Elephant bar, so if it does fail here, the drop back to the bottom SGB trifecta is likely. This stock is still in massive bullish momentum so short with a very short time frame and profit target in mind.

If NFLX opens over and hold above the SGB, then I am jumping on some Weekly Lotto 270 calls.

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8/14/13 - A rising Icahn tide lifts all his stocks...lol. With AAPL moving higher today, NFLX had to join in too. After all, Carl Icahn is "the man" right now, and any stocks he is involved with, investors want to be in too. NFLX is now over the high SGB and as long as it stays over it, NFLX is capable of moving back to new heights and if it falls back under, I would be looking for a test of T1 again, maybe even lower but my current bias is long just like Icahn.

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8/13/13 - NFLX is moving and shaking...the resolves of shorts. Today, the stock moved into the top range of the SGB Trifecta and this will be the test for future direction of this stock. I closed out my Naked puts for a tidy profit. Because this is Aug expiration, I expect some more volatility to continue and I am going to pick up some Lotto Puts tomorrow if NFLX gaps up and craps out. I will be fishing for a WW trade on Friday morning too.

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8/11/13 - The daily chart now has a SGB Trifecta which gives me a heads up in my gut this stock is about to make another move. Common sense would say down but NFLX does not necessarily trade in favor of common sense...lol.

I think this stock could easily fall farther than it can go up so my bias will be shorting opportunities on any rallies. I have my Aug naked puts that I plan to buy back tomorrow and roll out to Sep once I see how NFLX trades this week.

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8/7/13 - What started to be a rally is becoming a another failed attempt as NFLX has now test the higher SGB twice and pulled back sharply today. I am keeping my Naked put fully willing to own NFLX.

With NFLX trading between two SGB's, there is a lot of confusion on price direction, but my short term bias is a move lower; however, this stock is prone to large short covering rallies on any positive news, so if you short it, invest what you are fully prepared to lose and take profits when you have them; or put in a hard stop at a 20% ROI and let it ride if you are so inclined.

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8/1/13 - SGB tested and NFLX starts off the Aug month heading back higher. I am going to sell some Naked Puts tomorrow if the markets head higher.

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7/25/13 - Attempting to rebound but it needs to take out and close back over $250. Now that earnings are out and fully digested, Investors have to decide if tey want to stick around for the rest of the summer. I think we can take the idea of a buyout off the table for now. The future share price appreciation will now be based on hard revenue and subscriber numbers going forward. There is nothing else to push this stock higher, so I suspect it may start a selling cycle if it cannot take out both SGB's on the daily chart. If there is any news the Icahn is selling look out below. Going forward, I am still modestly bullish but I plan to have running OTM weekly puts as I trade around this stock. For tomorrow, I want to see if NFLX can take out $250 and if it fails, I will grab a few $240 JulWk4 puts that expire tomorrow as a morning Lotto play. These will most likely expire so follow at your own risk mamagement.

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7/24/13 - Some much needed profit taking today pushed NFLX back under the last SGB zone. I expect this to be tested tomorrow for a bounce and move back to $250. I will be looking for a couple of Lotto Plays tomorrow and Friday.

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7/23/13 - Another round of successful White Whale trades!!! NFLX did the classic drop and pop then failed and sold off all day. Once the WW calls were filled and profits taken, I was also filled on two puts and rode them down to a nice profit too!

I sold my naked calls and closed them out for a nice profit as well. I do not think NFLX will make it anywhere near $200 by Friday but those puts are more than paid for now.

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7/22/13 - NFLX beats estimates but no surprises, stock trades lower in after hours. Once the conference call started, the stock firmed up and retraced over half the initial drop. Will this continue into tomorrow? Well, for me, based on the call, I was not all that motivated to buy and hold into the open. I scalped some profits in after hours and will fish for some WW trades in the morning. The company is firing on all cylinders and this conference call seemed to me business as usual. Their future sounds bright, but in the end of the analysis, they are still "working" on growth. That means they are aggressively spending capital and taking on debt to expand, expand and expand. I think this stock has more reasons to pull back than advance this week; however, this company has a substantial amount of momentum and I think any pull backs will be modest and buyable. I do not see NFLX dropping below $200 anytime soon so you can sell some naked puts or spreads after it pulls back and collect some premium—only do this on a bounce above $200.

As I look the options over for WW trade entry targets, I can see they are massively over priced. Since the stock has not been trading wildly in after hours trading, I do not see NFLX making any big price swings tomorrow, so I do not expect to get a low fill price on a WW trade tomorrow. That being said, go with small contracts and let a few ride for the entire week—I am leaning on the puts because this stock has more reason to go down now than up.

If NFLX can hold ground above the recent SGB, I am going to sell some naked puts and collect premium.

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7/21/13 - Get ready for another shot at catching a white whale! The biggest challenge is we are starting off on Monday so all the options age going to be very expensive. I will have a few contracts at my regular entry points and then I will have some low ball bids and offers in case we get a really big move. If NFLX blows out the numbers (expected) the stock should easily take out it's all time highs by the end of the trading week. If they disappoint, we stand a very good chance of making a massive profit. I do not expect this stock to flounder around so get ready I will have trades posted tomorrow night!

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7/18/13 - No one is looking to sell based on yesterdays comments by Carl Icahn, but with GOOG missing, NFLX did pull back slightly but I do not think that will have much of an effect. Since GOOG was beat down and if it continues to be sold off, all the money will be heading to other stocks and which candidates do you think are going to benefit? NFLX, TSLA, LNKD, CMG, PCLN etc.

Any pull back to the top of the W is buyable. I will be loading up on my Lotto plays Monday so stay tuned.

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7/17/13 - SGB ignored and $300 in sight. Today Carl Icahn was interviewed on CNBC and confirmed he still has 100% of his shares in NFLX. That announcement did not move the stock in after hours, but his comments may move it tomorrow and into Monday before earnings are announced. If this bullish sentiment is still hanging around, then NFLX should easily gap over $270 tomorrow. All I know is if they miss earnings, the drop should be a big one so I will have some Lotto puts for sure.

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7/16/13 - So far another SGB is being ignored but that can change in a second...see TSLA.

I am looking for a white whale trade. Anytime you want to trade this stock, I would be fishing for a lower entry point.

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7/15/13 - Today finished as an SGB so any higher moves are cautious one as earnings are next Monday. I am fishing for more day trades as the volatility should remain strong all week. If today's SGB holds, I am looking for longs and if it fails I will look for shorts. I stopped out of my long shares

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7/14/13 - NFLX is poised to make a nice earnings run so I am hoping for an initial drop and pop tomorrow, but if that is not the case, I will fish for a cheaper price on the $270's. This is the highest strike I want to buy right now for calls and will look to Friday or next Monday for a Lotto play ahead of earnings.

There is a battle on for subscriber growth and NFLX faces a plethora of competitors at cheaper prices. There is no doubt right now that NFLX is king of the hill, but if they are forced to lower prices to compete, that will KILL this stocks ridiculous and lofty prices so KEEP some OTM puts on tap every week. If they miss earnings it will be a MEGA LOTTO TICKET we cash in! In the meantime, we trade the volatility and direction and this is higher for right now...buy the dips and take the ride.

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7/12/13 - What a day to be long NFLX. Bummer my WW Puts were filled and expired. It happens once in while but I had calls that more than compensated for it....whew! There should be some continued enthusiasm with a nice move like today. If NFLX keeps heading higher into next week as the earnings run, then we should see it reach $270 and find a lot of resistance until the new release. A big quarter and it's new all time highs, wow, a miss and we are going to get RICH on puts!

With the last two weeks being quite bullish, put premium has become very cheap. Earnings are reporting on 7/22/13 so we need to be looking at JulWk4 positions. This upcoming week is July expiration so I expect some WW trade opportunities in NFLX so lets start fishing!

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7/11/13 - What happened to NFLX today? Wow, markets launch to new all time closing high's; just about every stock I follow closed higher; but NFLX takes a break? What?? Dang! I was really bummed out we did not get a huge move UP in NFLX today. What we did get was a White Whale trade when NFLX gapped up and crapped out! The bummer is I usually have three strikes and two entry targets and yesterday I decided to cut back to only 1 entry targets. Of course, the day I decide that I would have hooked three white whales...lol. No worries, I still had a successful trade and that is all that matters!

The action in NFLX was a head scratcher in deed as I attempted to trade around it all day and pretty much got my ass kicked thinking it was going to take out $250. When it failed with an SGB, I jumped on the short side, but there was not enough continuation down to make big profits. I managed to salvage my day with some aggressive option trading, but it was not the spectacular day I was expecting on NFLX.

I bought some JulyWk2 250 calls and I still have my long shares that I was almost stopped out on today. I hope that is not the case tomorrow and this was a manipulation attempt to get investors to dump their stock...very unusual trading for NFLX. Maybe Carl Icahn was dumping it ahead of earnings? All I know is I am going to keep adding OTM calls and puts because something is not kosher with this stock right now.

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7/10/13 - Another content deal and NFLX takes off with a large Bull Elephant bar that was STEPPED ON today. Usually you see moves like this continue the next day but this one was sold off most of the day until short covering came in at the end of trading. I shorted shares and closed out some Naked puts picking up some nice gains. At the close I bought a straddle Lotto speculation in anticipation of a reaction to Uncle Ben's comments after the markets close.

So far, we are in for a nice rally tomorrow and NFLX is ready to bust out over $250 so here we go.

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7/8/13 - Trading in the gap zone on the daily chart is a crap shoot, so keep your positions small so the stress of wide price swings does not give you the traders poison pill...fear of loss. Just work your way into a larger position on pull backs, because NFLX is going parabolic and most likely it will make another gap up attempt to test the highs of my double gap zone. It can still fail until the entire wick of the weekly SGB is taken out, but that will most likely need another stronger news release or a very big surprise when earning are come out in a couple of weeks.

Based on the charts, it is looking like NFLX wants to move higher. If the quarterly char is you guide, then NFLX is still a long above $215, but must take out $250 to keep the tech-bulls in charge.

I am going to add some more weekly Lotto Puts if NFLX keeps moving higher with my lowest strike price at $200.

I am going to do some WW fishing tomorrow since NFLX has moved up pretty good today, maybe we get a nice gap and crap.

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7/5/13 - Not a very big up day compared to Monday's action and NFLX closed just under the weekly SGB high. Depending on how earnings season kicks off, I suspect NFLX will be struggling to head much higher until it gets close to earnings. Of course, any news released will have a positive impact so speculate all you want to. I have a couple naked puts sold and will look to add some more if NFLX gets above that SGB on the weekly chart.

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7/4/13 - Quiet day of trading heading into the 4th of July. Let's see if Friday can bring the fireworks show for NFLX and others!

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7/2/13 - No follow through on yesterdays rally shows investors are growing weary of the NFLX hype. After a while, content deals news gets old and investors will begin to focus on the real reason to buy a stock, PROFITS! Until NFLX monetizes all these new deals, this stock is becoming more vulnerable to profit taking. If the next quarter is not another massive blowout, we may have an awesome short opportunity. For now, NFLX is failing to take out the weekly SGB and the 15min chart has two identical DOJI patterns . A tombstone at the open and a dragonfly at the close. Maybe it's a glitch on my chart, as I have never seen this before.

I am going to start accumulating longer term puts because if the head-and-shoulders pattern plays out NFLX is going DOWN.

I am moving NFLX to my secondary trades so I can focus on AAPL and GOOG for day to day. I will keep looking for WW trades but on Thurs for Fridays trading.

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7/1/13 - More content deals lifted the stock 6% today! LOL, just when I thought it could not make any more measured moves....bam! We get one today!!

Ok, so will this be a move with legs or a nice couple day short opportunity starting tomorrow? Looking over the daily and weekly chart, I see that NFLX dead stopped at my T1 on the Bear 180 monthly chart and the weekly SGB. Until NFLX takes out last months high of $235.88 it is still a Bear 180 setup. Well, that is still another $10 of upside, so if NFLX makes a move over T1 and fails it again, then I will sell some Call premium and short some stock.

Any rise over T1 could prove to be very bullish and it's off to the races to attack the May high at $248.85. I do not expect NFLX to attempt a new all time high until earnings are released. This stock has massive momentum on the monthly chart and can easily keep on moving higher, so if you want to speculate on the short side, take profits early or buy calls at 2:1 the shares you plan on trading, that way, if there is yet another news story, you can break even while you are getting stopped out.

I will be watching to see how NFLX trades in pre-market and it if fails at today's high of $225 or T1, then I will try a small short or sell some call spread premium. I do not recommend you ever sell naked call premium on NFLX.

As I make profits, I will start accumulating some JulyWk4 OTM call options and when we get to earnings, I will set up a Lotto play too.

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6/28/13 - NFLX was unable to stage a rally today and that could be the sign this H&S is going to break the neck line. I added some JulyWk1 puts in anticipation that will be the case, but I am ready to sell some put credit spreads if next week starts out strong. No WW fills today.

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6/26/13 - NFLX started the day shrugging off the downgrade but that is not necessarily a good thing. When a stock gets a downgrade, usually there is some over reactive selling and then a strong rally that continues the trend. Well, the current trend for NFLX is consolidated selling and today was more of the same.

The stock attempted to make new moves but stopped short at the 21ma and closed just under the 55MA while the markets were screaming BUY BUY BUY all day. This may very well be the beginnings of a gap test for NFLX. The only thing propping this stock up is Icahn ownership, potential buyout ramblings and the hype of future content delivery and subscriber growth. Hype and speculation can last for months...see TSLA, but when the euphoria wears off, the drops are dramatic. I am sticking to my commentary below, but becoming less optimistic for the short term that NFLX can make some measured moves higher or lower until earnings come out. I am not adding anything more other than WW fishing for now.

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6/25/13 - The Analysts are circling NFLX again with downgrades. Every time I start hearing downgrades, I want to get LONG, and upgrades, I want to get short. If you take that approach, over time, you WILL have more winning trades than losing ones. Purported "guru" analysts are not paid to inform you, they are paid to make money for their firms. Sure, a few of them give good advice and insight, but for the most part, they do not even own the very stocks they are beating down or touting to go higher.

I don't know if you remember the good ol' days in the 90's when it was upgrade after upgrade, and then when the CRASH came, CNBlahC started a policy that guest analysts had to actually disclose if they actually owned the stocks they were pitching (after all CNBlahC has your back right?). Ironically, most of them would have NO shares of the very stocks they said were a good buy or bad one. Huh? Well, that "policy" has pretty much been shelved because I barely hear the talking heads asking their guests if they actually own the companies they are talking about—so much for accountability right?

Anyway, whether this analysts is right or wrong did not affect NFLX as much as it could have today since it was already being dumped for the past 4 trading days. Hmm, how come these bozo's can't seem to downgrade a stock BEFORE it takes a bath? I put my neck on the line win or lose every day on this site with my analysis...BEFORE the stocks move...oh, it must be my luck or maybe I have nothing to gain out of the publics wallets by waiting for the obvious so I can take the other side...we call those people piker's.

I know this stock is ridiculously over bought and jacked up on hype, so anyone can make cackling statement that it's too expensive and should be sold, but you better be on guard when it comes across the TV screen, especially when it's obvious to just about anyone.

For me, when I hear that Carl Icahn has left the building, then I will believe this stock is an aggressive short. Until that happens, I will be fishing for WW trades and welcome B/S downgrades or upgrades, that makes for volatility, and that is exactly what we need to catch a white whale of a trade!

Oh, by the way, that analysts "downgrade" price target is $180...lol My T2 target is 182.72...let's see who is more accurate if NLFX gets down there...lol.

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6/24/13 - Markets continue to sell down but NFLX holds ground with a slightly lower close! That tells me there are no BIG sellers getting out, but with last weeks SGB, that can change if this market does not finds solid support over the next couple of days. Even though we have a Level 1 Bull 180 setup, you should NOT get long unless or until NLFX shows us a green bar on the daily chart—there is currently a higher probability of lower prices in the near term.

The action in NFLX today was pretty volatile with an initial large gap down and great rebound rally! Unfortunately, the gap down was not quite enough to connect with my WW entry points but that is ok, I will keep fishing until I do catch one.

When we get close to being filled and the stock starts to move back up, I prefer to sell naked premium or spreads. If you have enough capital you can always jump on shares too.

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6/21/13 - Great day to be SHORT NFLX!! BIG profits on the WW puts today!! This weeks trading chart ended as a big SGB but also can be considered a level 1 Bull 180 setup too. I know from previous experience, the SGB is a much better short signal, so being cautious on any Bull 180 plays is definitely needed. If you do get long off this Level 1 B180, be sure to have a STRICT stop in place at $210.

I suggest you just go with some July call options with money you are 100% prepared to part with and see what happens. There is still a lot of speculation momentum in this stock and until news breaks the Carl Icahn has sold shares, there should be continued buy interest on any pull backs. Plus, NFLX has already pulled back considerably from hits highs, so any more selling pressure should be met with strong buyers around $200.

My plan for this upcoming week is to nibble on long shares and OTM calls if NFLX gets down to $200, and if the stock takes off Monday, then I would be a seller of some Bull Put Spreads.

The monthly chart has us in a perfect BEAR 180 setup, so I suspect that will play the stronger roll down to the 89MA and $200. I am currently getting beat up on my long shares, but I made more than enough on the WW trades Friday to cover that so I am not at all concerned. If things get ugly at $200 then I will start selling covered calls on those shares.

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6/20/13 - Market melt down taking everyone with it. NFLX did not drop as much as it could have so we could see a nice snap back tomorrow and a hopefull WW trade set up! I still have my Monday WW puts and glad to see some selling today which brought back some life in these. If NFLX takes another dive tomorrow then these could make some decent profits. I am fishing for more tomorrow morning too.

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6/19/13 - Another news story released about expansion into the Netherlands lifted NFLX up most of the day and even with the Fed announcement and maket gyrations, NFLX still pulled off a positive close. I was day trading this sucker all day today and it had a ton of volatility! I bought some Lotto calls Jun13 255's so if we get a big rally into expiration, maybe NFLX will blast off with another announcement. I am free rolling on this trade so I do not mind if it does not work out.

Now that NFLX has some volatility pumped into it, I am looking for a fill on a WW trade this week!

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6/18/13 - No follow through today but no dumping either. That means those invested are overly confident NFLX will be heading higher. My target is up to $240 if there is no more "news" and the Fed meeting is positive. If things turn sour in the markets, then NFLX should resume its slide back to the 21ma on the weekly chart. I am sticking with my positions above and will do some day trading when I see opportunities.

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6/17/13 - News story out NFLX takes off! NFLX cuts a new content deal with DreamWorks and the stock takes off all day making it to a high of $230.50 before pulling back a little. NFLX has entered a major gap zone that can take the stock up to $240. Will that happen? Won't know for sure, but I was filled on my T-2 puts and they pretty much held ground all day which indicates today's big rally is ONLY news related. I am sticking with my puts and fishing for T-1 entries tomorrow should NFLX gap up and then crap out the rest of the week.

I originally shorted some shares and finally covered for a slight loss. Then I went long 300 shares in the afternoon trading and sold a July covered call picking up some fat premium which I will use to do some day trades with directional options during the trading day.

If there is another content deal announced, NFLX will keep heading higher, but if the rest of the week has no news, this rally will most likely run out of steam around $235. I am hoping for a gap up tomorrow so I can get some more WW puts and then a nice crap out back to $220 would be just what the trade doctor ordered—until NFLX takes out $248.85, the Bear 180 on the monthly chart is in play

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6/16/13 - This week should make some moves in NFLX. Last week it tested the 55MA on the daily and that must hold this week. This stock is itching for a reason to continue higher so that makes it difficult to short because you have to endure a lot of pain until the selling kicks in. Every day we get closer to earnings I suspect the anticipation of some big announcement will keep buyers interested. If there is ANY news that Carl Icahn is or has sold shares, BUY PUTS. Otherwise, keep speculating with some OTM calls under $240.

The weekly chart has been pulling back steadily which means controlled selling and the only way I know for that to happen is when there are plenty of buyers. This is the 5th week so if we get a green bar starting and if NFLX can take out T1 you can get long with a strict stop under Friday's low.

Let's hope for some volatility so we can get a WW trade filled! If I do get some Calls filled, I will keep some on all week just in case NFLX get's what everyone is hoping for.

Remember, NFLX is still in Bear 180 mode on the monthly chart so keep an eye on it as we progress through the rest of June.

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6/13/13 - Nice day in NFLX! I bought two of my WW trades and sold out at the end of the day!! I will fish for more tomorrow. I picked up some speculation JuneWk2 235 calls just in case there is a surprise announcement tomorrow. The other two call strikes missed my entry points and I did not chase them, but wow, nice returns there too. My T-entry targets are suggested based on extremes so we get filled at a really cheap price and have the potential for multi-thousand percent ROI's, so you have to decide how much wiggle room you want to give on your entry price and risk tolerance. Just remember that if you pay more, take profits sooner and compound your contract size on the next one.

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NFLX is on the way down these past two days and should make an effort to hold up at $200. Maybe by Friday's close. You may want to try a Put Butterfly at $200. The debit today is $0.87 and if NFLX closes at or near $200 on Friday then you can make about 3:1 which is a nice risk/reward ratio.

I am still keeping some calls in play because this stock has the short jitters and any upside news will result in a big move higher. I shorted some shares today to test the waters, and I was fighting to get a profit going so there is still buyers out there as NFLX pulls back. What I am looking for is a bounce and fail with accelerated selling or one more day of selling with a capitulation drop and pop by Friday. If NFLX plummets to T2 I would be looking for long positions there.

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The best suitor (AAPL) to buy up NFLX had no surprises to announcement today. NFLX is still hanging around but today we have an SGB on the daily which means lower prices are likely to happen. Plus, NFLX is still in Bear 180 mode on the monthly chart, so if the selling starts tomorrow, I would be looking for NFLX to make a multi-day drop to the 55MA on the daily and T2 on the weekly. I will fish for some WW trades and put on a small Put trade in the stock does not make any moves higher tomorrow.

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6/9/13 - The monthly chart has a red bar and if you did not get short last week and still want to go with this Bear 180, then do so if NFLX does not take out T1 tomorrow. Using the monthly chart as your guide, the stop should be strict at $229.

Because there are speculation rumors and possible buyouts of this stock, any shorts you have should be hedged with OTM calls because if an event happens, NFLX can gap up $50 form here. Also, the Bear 180 is based on the monthly chart, so you would have to buy your puts as June or July to give enough time for any pull back to work out—I would target OTM puts at $190 which is above T2.

I will keep fishing for WW trades and if I get filled tomorrow, I will hold on for the week to see how things progress with the stock.

There was a lot of put activity on Friday for the Jun13 options. Question is where those buys or sell?

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6/5/13 - Barely dropped today as the markets are in correction mode...there is definitely something coming in this stock—NO big money is selling it...yet!

NFLX joins the S&P 100 tomorrow and that would explain the strong showing today as funds have to buy in and I do not think they will be dumping it anytime soon.

I am looking over Option volume and Open Interest and there has been some pretty strong volume on the call side today in Weekly as well as June and July.

I added some more calls plays. If NFLX moves back over $230 or drops down around $200 I will be adding some more long plays.

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6/4/13 - Shorted 100 shares with strict stop at yesterdays high. Filled on my June13 185 puts No WW fills today.

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6/3/13 - NO big moves today and no WW fills either. I am just going to continue to fish for a WW trade.

The monthly chart has NFLX starting out as a Bear 180 Play, so you can short shares tomorrow if NFLX does not take out today's high. I would place a strict stop $5.00 above T1 (see chart below). If you want to speculate with options then buy Jun13 one strike above T2 or the $185 puts.

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6/2/13 - One of the few stocks that closed positive on my watch list. This could be a clue that there is definitely some positive news waiting to be released. When the markets turn, investors typically run to solid stocks with strong earnings, balance sheets and dividends. The big money managers typically dump the speculative stocks, over valued and high p/e etc. Well, what do you suppose is going on with NFLX? I was having dinner with a friend on Friday and we were discussing the future of NFLX. I was telling him we need to be a detective and figure out what the next move is so we can try and get in front of it and profit in a very big way. My gut is telling me there is definitely some surprises in the future of NFLX so you better keep a running tab on OTM calls.

Here is what I am thinking. This stock was severely whacked from its all time highs back in 2011-2012 when it fell from investors grace and had bad earnings quarters, slow subscriber growth and dumbass moves by a zealous CEO. Once the deluge was over, NFLX found a short term boost back in Jan of 2012 which was whacked back down for the rest of the year; then the turn in opinion and love for this stock began to return in late 2012. It took a couple of quarters of improving subscriber base with new expansions world wide, contracts with content providers and infiltration into every TV, Blu-Ray player and other devices. This began the bull run in the stock that was accelerated into hyper speed once activist investor Carl Icahn jumped into the stock. Once that happened, everyone was on board. Then the crème de la crème was Jan 2013 earnings when NFLX surpassed all expectations and made history by rising close to 75% in two days—making it the darling of Wall Street once again.

Since that glorious rise, NFLX has maintained it's massive price increase and hit stage 2 thrusters with the next quarterly release. Since there, that has been more new content deals, rumors of buyouts and continued world wide expansion making this stock one of the best investments of 2013 to date. Now comes the final trading days of May and NFLX finds support, advances in price and holds the sell off—there is BIG MONEY at work in this stock.

My thinking here is NFLX has a high probability of being bought out in the near future. So, if that is the case, who is the likely candidate to do this? Who has enough reason and CASH to take on this company? Who has the public opinion to accept the buyout of this company? Who has the consumer strength to expand on this companies current subscriber base? For me, the answer is APPLE!

If you are a watcher of CNBlahC then you know Jim Cramer was touting a few weeks back that MSFT or AAPL should just buyout NFLX. That line of thinking has been "floated" and it has been accepted as a "good move" for either company.

They both have BILLIONS of dollars in cash reserves and could snap up NFLX with little impact to their bottom line; however, AAPL has been involved in the entertainment content a lot longer than MSFT. AAPL has several innovative products out or in development like: iWatch, new iPhone and iPads, iMacs etc. giving this company lots of room to run for years into the future. On the other hand, MSFT has been playing catch up with AAPL for years and is not having much success.

The one priceless thing AAPL has over MSFT is the unconditional LOVE of millions around the world who would gladly accept such a merger if they bought NFLX.

Ok, so how would it benefit them if they did this? Well, AAPL is rumored to be developing Apple TV. If they were to buy NFLX, then they would have an instant audience to offer content to. So what type of content do they have? They have the BEST content...CONNECTIONS. If you recall, AAPL used to own PIXAR and that company was recently bought out by DIS. Last quarter, NFLX announced a new content deal with DIS that starts in 2016. Hmmm, do you think, maybe, DIS knows something about AAPL or AAPL knows something about DIS with regards to this shift in ownership? If you think about it, if you were looking to the future (years or decades) and you wanted to expand into entertainment media via movies, TV, music, radio etc. which would you find easier to expand your company into new horizons, starting from scratch or acquire what others have built and may be mismanaging?

NFLX has always been run as a mud-on-the-wall company and some of that mud eventually stuck. The company has had tremendous growth along with a few blunders, but it has been a great success story none the less...congrats to the CEO and management team!

Once a company achieves massive success, the biggest obstacle is to keep it; and more importantly expand on it. The biggest challenge that NFLX has is they do NOT control their content, and until recently, they have ventured into producing their own content—a very expensive venture for a company that has restricted revenue streams. The bigger issue with expanding a company is the bottom line...cash flow. NFLX makes SMALL money off subscribers and then spends well over 80% of it on content deals and marketing for more subscribers. Eventually this model will fail because they will saturate their markets, and if they have not sandbagged billions like AAPL, they will be vulnerable to takeovers; which is where they are at right now in my estimation.

I look at what is presented to me and then I discern what is NOT being told. In the sales world we have a saying, if you cannot change it, feature it. So, in the case of NFLX, they have to constantly feature their growth with content. The biggest problem is they have NO control over 99% of that content and with ever increasing competition, they are running out of road.

The likely solution is this company is snapped up by a whale of a company with enough cash to carry it well into the future and that is either AAPL or MSFT.

When companies get bought up by other companies, often times it does not turn out well in the long run unless the acquiring company has the management, resources and will to keep the new blood mixing well with the old blood. MSFT is old school looking for innovation; whereas, AAPL is still creating new innovation.

The other killer of acquisitions is public opinion. If your customers become hostile to the way things are run under the new banner, then they LEAVE! Take the missteps that the NFLX CEO made in the recent past. In fact, if you ask most people who they would rather have own NFLX I would say the overwhelming majority will say AAPL.

Public opinion of MSFT is very mixed to say the least. They are still struggling to find their place in the tech-products world; they are always playing catch up with AAPL on innovation; the company has been hated by its customer base for a very long time; the stock has been DOA for a decade; and they lack the talent to innovate compared to AAPL. The current CEO is viewed as "old school" and if they bought NFLX, it would be viewed by consumers as another bloated company adding more weight to their sinking ship.

Another interesting clue I picked up on is when AAPL CEO Tim Cook went to Washington D.C. pitching congress on relaxing corporate tax law so they can bring their BILLIONS back to the US without getting whacked with taxes. Of course it was presented to the public as Congress was summoning a "big bad wolf" trying to cheat those little pigs out of their sustenance...other people's money!

So, do you think they will get off the tax hook as a profiteer or do you think they will ONLY get that money back here if they use the bulk of it (the taxed part) for expansion and jobs here in the US? Remember, a politician is a leach by nature, and if a leach sucks its host dry, it dies. Since politicians are interested in two things, money and power, what do you think they are doing behind closed doors?

Another interesting thing is, according to CNBC, Carl Icahn said he has NOT sold ANY of his shares in NFLX. I know you may be thinking there is NO Way he can have "insider info" after all, that would be illegal right? Well, not if you are a member of the con-grass-smokers-association...insider trading is legal!!

All the pieces of my puzzle are adding up to a buyout and my gut is telling me that will be AAPL as the most likely candidate to step up to the plate.

I am going to keep a running tab of OTM calls on NFLX and then trade the stock week to week like I always do.

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5/30/13 - The expected bounce off T4 closing just under T3 and at the anomaly price of $222.66. I was NOT filled on my WW fishing orders but I am anticipating getting a WW on the hook tomorrow!! I bought some June 190 puts at the close today.

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Today the CEO was on CNBC talking about the future and the stock immediately sold off after his comments. There was nothing said to motivate big money to buy in so we could see a nice test of $200 tomorrow. Unfortunately I was stopped out of my 200 puts at the open, so I will have to fish tomorrow and hope we get a gap up and melt down!

If NFLX takes out $205 I suspect it will most likely move down to the 89MA and fill the gap from April. I will pick up some Jun13 puts tomorrow if we get a failed attempt to move higher.

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5/28/13 - HOOKED ANOTHER ONE!!!!! Wow, perfect White Whale trade today on NFLX. We had the gap up and then the melt down all day! I am expecting NFLX to make a bounce but from the looks of things, we could see it fall to T4 before that happens.

Tomorrow we could get another White Whale trade on the call side!!! Get Ready!!!

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5/27/13 - NFLX tested the 21MA on Thursday last week and moved up slightly on Friday. the zone for NFLX to get back over is now a double gap which can be difficult unless there is some compelling news. As you can see from the daily chart, the recent selling was pretty strong; however, the volume was light indicating there are no BIG sellers present at this time.

I was not filled on my WW fishing orders and I will continue to fish every day until I catch one.

The daily chart shows a direct hit on T3 and if this holds, I am expecting NFLX to make an attempt to take out the double gap zone. This can be difficult unless NFLX gets some spectacular news that will cause another gap over it. If that does happen, think we could be on for a run to its all time highs. If Icahn has indeed not sold any of his shares, then hold on for the next wave of short covering to begin. I am fishing for WW trades daily and will also pick up some OTM monthly calls.

The range to beat is $220 - $244 and that makes it difficult for options plays because there is plenty of premium packed in if you are a buyer. My play is to speculate outside the range because once NFLX makes a move in either direction, then it will be a measured move.

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5/23/13 - A nice gap down this morning and I took my profits on the rest of my $225.00 puts for $4.00. I am still waiting for NFLX to gap up and fail VWAP on a 15 minute chart before I short the stock.

I was not filled on the WW fishing trades so I have adjusted my next set of entry targets.

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5/22/13 - The result for NFLX was a BIG move down today and I was on it with PUTS! I have WW fishing orders in for tomorrow.

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5/16/13 - The BEARISH ENGULFING candle developed today as NFLX failed to take out $250. Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day for the markets and NFLX should move around a bit too.

The 15 minute chart gave us the Short Signal SGB candle and with the failure to take out $250 and it was time to JUMP ON. I bought the 240's banking a nice profit today. I also got filled on my Butterfly positions

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5/15/13 - Another gap and jump higher, This is becoming a blow off top setup so get ready for some profit taking when it gets to $250.00 - $255.00. I am fishing for some White Whale puts tomorrow if NFLX moves higher at the open. If it moves down immediately, then I will sell a Bear Call Spread.

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5/14/13 - Making moves with the markets. I did not get filled on the 230 or 250 calls at the open, so I cancelled the trades and now I am fishing for puts.

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5/13/13 - NFLX is back on my radar screen. What a glorious ride this stock has been since late Jan 2013. According to news reports, Carl Icahn has NOT sold any of his stake in the company and that is definitely driving this stock higher. Now, that may be the news story he wanted played out so he could indeed DUMP his shares. Too many times I have seen, heard and been the sucker to this very situation so all I can say is be cautious at this point if you have not been in this massive winner. At the end of the day, this company's stock price is up HUGE on future expectations. If you break down the guts of the storyline, then you have to scratch your head in amazement. The daily chart is definitely going parabolic so we should be looking for a blow off top signal soon. I was watching it trade around $230 all day and it could not get over this price. In fact the "high of the day" was pegged at $229.69 As you know, I am an observer of anomaly prices because I am convinced they are "insider" code. I am thinking this price point was pegged to say, "hey...we are about to screw everyone so DO NOT GET LONG BOYS...wink wink!" We will know if I am right in the next few trading days.

If you think this is a signal to get LONG then place orders 34% - 55% UNDER current prices...DO NOT CHASE because the implied volatility in these options are ridiculous. For example, the ATM 230 Weekly calls are currently priced at $4.90. That means NLFX has to trade at $235.00 by Friday to guarantee you break even. Sure, it could go up another $11 bucks tomorrow or this week, but if NFLX does not move higher from minute one tomorrow, the market makers will wipe out this premium and TAKE YOUR MONEY!

Ok, so what is the trade? Vegas baby! That is what you are doing at this point. If you want to get on this bullet train.

Friday is May Options Expiration and with the markets in full BULL monde, I suspect NFLX should continue to power higher this week. So, if you want to get in this move, then you need to fish for a better price. I am jumping on the May 13 250's tomorrow if NFLX give me a chance to, and if NFLX pulls back in the morning session, I want to fish for a cheaper price on the 230's.

Looking at this monthly chart as a Bear 180 setup, we can get a better idea of the potential pull back if NFLX takes a dive from this stellar rise back to it's previous glory. We are in the 8th month since NLFX found a bottom and that means we still have three weeks for this to fully play out it it does become a Bear 180. The caveat here is this Friday is May options expiration and I suspect the current parabolic move in NFLX will be pushed to it's limits this week. We may even see it blast right past $250 but I think that would take a buyout news story.

This has been and will continue to be an exciting and gut wrenching stock to trade so work on your order entry with FISHING prices. You can also sell premium to collect some nice rent too.

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4/25/13 - NFLX is looking ready to start a profit taking dip and I hope it gets to $205 tomorrow or takes out $200 making me profits on both my Butterfly and Puts.

If NFLX moves higher in the morning, I will fish for some $205 puts and see if I can catch another White Whale trade.

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4/23/13 - No follow through on yesterdays awesome move as NFLX was sold off short of $225.00. We now have a long tailed doji indicating more selling uncertainty than buying conviction. It will take a day or two for the profits to be digested as many investors are looking for a pull back on profit taking this week before making more long term buying decisions. Remember, even though this stock is HOT HOT HOT again, it has appreciated over 140% since its last earnings release. Any long entries at these heights will have to be based on long-term holdings and no concern for volatility every now and then. As for us options traders, we are not interested in that, we want volatility so we can exploit it for as many profits as we can. Ok, so what is the play then? For me, it's selling premium because the volatility is still in high and that makes for good rent collection.

I currently have a $205 butterfly going this week and I am hopeful NFLX will slip lower by Friday. I may put on a 210 and 200 tomorrow to make sure I have a better chance to make an overall profit.

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I did not get any fills on my White Whale trades but I am still looking for one the rest of the week. If NFLX does not head higher tomorrow, I will be looking to add to my 200 puts in anticipation it will pull back to test that area.

Not enough movement to make the calls or puts cheap. I cancelled my White Whale orders for this one...bummer.

So far pre-market open is indicating NFLX may sell off. If it does, I am looking to get the $220 or $215's as cheap as I can for a potential rally into the rest of the week.

6:21 AM - NFLX is holding price so far. I am looking for a move higher that fails so I can buy the 210 Puts or a move lower to $200 that hold and I can buy the 220 Calls. Not looking like I will get cheap pricing so I will have to adjust my contract size down quite a bit.

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4/22/13 - NFLX beats by a wide margin and the stock LAUNCHED!!! If current post market prices hold up, we will have another massive WINNER!!!

Now that earnings were a blow out and NLFX went well beyond the estimated move of +$24.92, I have cancelled my open orders on the 195 calls and the 155 puts—I will look for a new entry strikes in the morning once I see how the stock is trading in pre-market.

I suspect NFLX will pull back on profit taking tomorrow morning and should fall back to the projected move around $200-$205.

I am hoping the stock actually gaps up at the open so I can buy the 210 or 205 puts for less than $0.10 cents with the expectation that NFLX will indeed fall back to around $200 by the end of the week...maybe even lower!

If NFLX pulls back in pre-market, then I will be looking at jumping on the $220 calls in anticipation the stock catches a bid and takes off again surpassing the $222 high it made in after hours trading today. We have the rest of the week for NFLX to do this, so the calls could work out to be a very profitable White Whale trade!

I will put in my LIMIT orders before the market opens once I see how the stock is trading. DO NOT PUT IN MARKET ORDERS, you will definitley get a bad fill. This is a fishing expedition so use limit orders. You can try and stagger your contracts loads with different prices like I have at .01, .05 .10 with your biggest contract size at the lowest price. We have the entire week for these to work out if we get a fill—DO NOT CHASE YOUR ENTRY.

NOTE: DO NOT PUT IN ANY MONEY YOU ARE NOT WILLING TO LOSE AS THESE EXPIRE ON FRIDAY AND WE ARE SPECULATING.

I also placed a 205 Butterfly spread and was filled for a $0.17 debit.

Tomorrow is AAPL earnings so be sure to check out my current plays for that one too!.

Profits Up!

The donFranko

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4/22/13 - NFLX is up $10+ so far today, so I am putting in my White Whale orders for tomorrow.

If earnings are a blow out, it's highly anticipated NFLX will reach $200, so I am looking for a nice profit in the calls because NFLX could very well move higher.

NFLX was upgraded today and in my experience, when a stock gets upgraded the day of earnings, you better start looking for PUTS so it's going to an exciting day tomorrow if they miss because that is NOT expected.

I will also be placing additional Lotto Put trades at the end of today's session since NFLX is up so strongly the put options are getting cheaper...just the way I like it!

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4/21/13 - Tomorrow is NFLX earnings and I expect a large move off the news. If they miss, it could be a huge drop! So far, those two SGB I have been talking about have proven to be sell signals. The past three weeks of trading NFLX has consistently sold off indicating a lot of big money investors headed for the door. Get ready for a potential roller coaster rise with this one on Tuesday!.

I will also be putting in my White Whale trades in the last half our of trading tomorrow so I will do my best to update you with my actual strike prices and hope we get some fills.

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4/17/13 - Selling continues today as the SGB and tombstone doji are proving to be accurate. Earnings are coming next week, so if GOOG has a strong quarter, NFLX can move in sympathy. I am loaded and hedged so I just need a big move. I will be adding some more positions on the 22nd.

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4/16/13 - There is another move coming in NFLX...the chart is showing ominous signs. I added some more calls and puts.

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4/15/13 - NFLX attempted to put on a strong day even in the face of a total meltdown in the metals markets that dragged the indexes with it; however, the close today shows a potential tombstone doji that is inside the SGB and combined, we have the makings of a strong move coming.

I bought back my Apr13 190 puts and almost at a break even...I love selling premium on volatile stocks because the market makers collapse price with small moves in the stocks price. I sold the May 175 Naked Puts and took in a fat $16.00 in premium!

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4/13/13 - A potential rally off the double bottom support at $162 has begun, but Friday NFLX has another solid green bar on the daily and that indicates more downside is likely. This is the third SGB and this time it was produced on a bounce from a recent multi-day sell off. The other interesting note is the high failed at the 21MA which give us more reason to get short. If NFLX fails the support at $162 then you can bet your bottom dollar it will fall to the 89MA.

Earnings are a week away so that can keep some pressure on the stock. What we need to do is figure out if that is buying or selling pressure. I look at the options open interest and volume to help me gain an edge on future movement—173I like to look at the action 10% away or less or strong benchmark prices such as $200, $100, the 50's. for the short term, there is a lot of open interest on the $200 calls and for the long term the OI is spread accross 185 - 200. I will be watching this week to see where the bets are being placed. The bummer is earnings are going to be on Monday so we will be forced to pay a lot of implied volatility premium. This may be a better time to buy weekly options and sell May OTM options because that premium will be collapsed if NFLX goes up or down.

On my 190 Naked Puts I have a predicament that needs to be managed. I am fully willing to take delivery of this stock, but not happy about paying $190 a share at the current time so what can I do?

When I sold the Naked Put I received a credit of $7.90 per share. This reduced my cost basis down to $182.10 per share. I am 100% at risk of being assigned on Friday so I am going to roll out to May.

I have to buy back my Apr 130's for $25.10 and if I sell the same strike for May I can collect $26.35 which actually increased my overall credit by $1.25 per share further reducing my cost basis upon assignment to $180.85

1. Roll out and take in the extra premium fully ready to own this stock at $180.85

2. Roll out and sell a lower strike price using the credit(s) I have received to lower my cost basis if I am assigned.

5. If I have enough money and I really love the stock at any price, I can roll out to the next month but sell MORE contract at a lower strike to collect more premium.

My plan is to do #2: roll out to next month and sell a lower strike using up my original credit and lowering my cost basis if I get assigned.

To further cover my ass since I was not looking to own it, I will buy some puts at my new assignment strike next Monday before earnings are released just in case the stock melts down.

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4/11/13 - A new content deal with Hasbro, CEO announcement of 4B hours watched, more access to mobile devices and iPad etc. and the stock gets the kiss of death nod from Goldman Sachs...lol. All I know is when GS gets on board with upgrades it's time to SHORT, well, maybe not this time. I am on both sides of this stock and will continue to be as the volatility will be with us for some time to come. I find it to coincidental that when a stock starts to sell off suddenly, the analyst upgrades and news stories follow the next day to prop up the stock. It seems to me the timing is just too close and more often than not, the stock will give up all the new gains and then some more in a few days. Lets see if this reversal has some legs tomorrow, but we need to be watching how the stock reacts to the solid green bar in the next couple of trading sessions.

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4/10/13 - NFLX started to make moves lower this morning and then bounced back only to fail twice at yesterdays close. I dumped my B180 stock and bought some puts because all the markets were in bull rally mode and the S&P has finally made a new all time high yet NFLX sold off today. This shows you the stock is WEAK and it's lofty price is "news driven" and caused by short covering. I suspect that all the whale investors have already bought in, so I am looking for NFLX to pull back from there this week. I am still cautiously bullish, but for the short term I am speculating I can pick up some profits on the short side.

Remember there are thousands of investors getting short and frothing at the mouth (me being one of them) and that makes for a lot of volatility, fear and greed. If NFLX should resume to the upside, I will not be worried unless it takes out both the solid green bars on the daily chart below circled in orange.—I still have my Lotto Calls in place.

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4/9/13 - The Bull 180 is on! Stop at $165.00 with a trailing stop at $1.00. I am looking for the stock to move up to the 21MA on the daily chart. If this B180 fails, I see NFLX testing the 21MA on the weekly chart around $145.00 which is where I am now looking to start accumulating some May puts and will add more as the stock moves up or down.

Earnings are coming 4/22/13 and if they miss we could see a nice drop. I will have some puts in place as well as calls for the straddle play because I anticipate NFLX will move enough to make either side profitable.

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4/8/13 - What an UGLY chart we have on the daily. This stock is looking very damaged and today was the 8th down day. Looking over the charts, we see there is a lot of volatility in the past 4 days based on the large wicks. 4 days ago shows you where the support buyers were waiting just under the 50% Fib retracement (typical) but more importantly is the lack of buyers after that bounce. In fact, Friday's wick shows there was a lot more sellers stepping on the exit gas and today they were were well on their way until the last of the technical bottom feeders jumped on at the 38.2% retracement. If this level does not hold, NFLX is a strong candidate to test the 21MA on the weekly chart and the 89MA on the daily chart. Either way, we are looking at a target of $140 -$145. This stock packs a ton of excitement so if you have the stomach for the swings you stand a chance to make a boat load of loot. For me, I prefer to sell premium and speculate on OTM weekly calls because if they happen to get a buyout offer, the shorts will cover faster than they did last time and this stock will LAUNCH over $200 in 1 - 2 days.

The first Bull 180 setup failed, so we have now entered into the 2nd set up with this being the 8th down day in a row. Tomorrow has the potential for a bounce if the markets support it. I am looking to get long stock tomorrow if the stock stays above today's low in pre-market and also opens above today's low. I will keep a strict stop .55 cents below today's low.

As for options, I plan on selling put spreads and/or naked puts. I have long 200 calls and I will pick up some 190's. For a lotto trade, I will be buying some $140 puts. I am definitely going to get my naked put shares assigned unless I roll out to the next month which is what I plan to do by the end of this week.

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4/3/13 - Cha-CHING!!! Another Lotto / Compounder trade success!! NFLX slipped under $175 which was major support and a downgrade also kicked in along with an overall market sell off and WHAMO!

I suspect if NFLX does not rebound tomorrow, the selling will accelerate down to $155 and maybe even a little lower by Friday. I will be ready to jump on some more AprWk1 Puts tomorrow!

Now that NFLX is selling off, we will start looking for a Bull 180 setup starting tomorrow or Friday. I think NFLX may try to rally again soon since earnings are coming in less than three weeks; plus, NFLX has not had more than 1 week of selling since it launched from the last earnings release. Technically this is the 5th down week out of 9 weeks, so we are definitely vulnerable for a continuation into next week. If that does happen, the logical support will be at the 21MA on the weekly chart right around $145 - $150. I am going to speculate with some APRWk1 155-160's and pick up some APRW2 155-160's tomorrow if NFLX gaps up and fails in the first 15 minutes of trading.

The challenge is now that NFLX has made such a dramatic drop in the past 5 trading days, all of the puts are now packed with a ton of implied volatility. If you did not get on the 165 put trade I posted last week, then you may want to buy ITM options for the rest of this week to make sure you have enough delta to offset the IV and gamble on the AprWk2 150-155's for next week.

If NFLX turns into a Bull 180 tomorrow, I am going to buy some APR13 190 calls because there is still possibility of a buyout. Jim Cramer keeps harping on it so maybe he is telegraphing something to us because he keeps brining up AAPL and MSFT as likely buyers. If either one of these companies were to buy NFLX, that would launch the stock well over $200 faster than it took off last quarter—you just have to have some calls hanging around like we did the puts.

My 200 calls are all but wiped out so I am definitely wanting a B180 / buyout in the next week or two. I will be managing my trades in this stock daily and start accumulating OTM calls as I make money trading puts.

Jim Cramer changed gears today and now thinks MSFT would be the better suitor to snap up NFLX. He even mentioned a tender offer at $220 per share...hmmm...is he "hoping" or does he know something? For me, I will just keep a running tap on OTM calls up to the $210-$215 strikes; and if NLFX sells off more, I will be able to buy lower strikes too.

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4/2/13 - More selling and it accelerated in the afternoon session. This indicates there was definitely a big seller the past few weeks and now the stock is vulnerable to a much larger dip until earnings. My Lotto puts are up 100% so far and if today's selling accelerates into the rest of the week, these puts can become a massive success...at least that is what I am anticipating.

Now that NFLX has closed below both solid green bars on the daily, it can easily fall 10% on any negative news; however, this stock still has a lot of ability to rise rapidly on positive news stories, so I am just going to continue to sell premium and speculate on weekly put options.

As I make profits I will accumulate OTM calls for the upside surprise potential. I know shorts are getting very excited; and if NFLX does drop under $175; then the 21MA on the weekly chart is where I suspect the technical buyers will be wafting. This stock is back on the radar of fund managers, speculators and analysts so shorting it is risky business—sell premium.

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4/1/13 - OUCH! NFLX was whacked today :-( I suspected there was a big time seller and if it turns out to be Icahn, this stock will drop as fast as it went up. I have the 190 Naked Puts that are now at risk of being put to me at any time. I will take assignment of the shares if that happens and sell a covered call upon assignment. If they do not get put to me by expiration, then I will roll out to the next month and collect more premium.

I jumped on some APRWk1 165 Puts just in case this selling event turns into a melt down.

In the meantime, I will be looking for a day trade or two; and if NFLX sells off again tomorrow, I will sell some Bear Call Spreads and collect some more premium. It's looking like my Apr 200 calls are going to expire worthless for now, but I paid for them with the premium I took in on the Naked Puts—I may pick up some $190's if NFLX holds $170.00

I suspect the rumor of a buyout is off the table (unless maybe AAPL buys them...lol) and the selling will now continue up to a 12% drop. The only thing that will propel this stock over $200 is another earnings blowout; and we will not know about that until 4/22/13.

Last night on Mad Money, Cramer was very bullish on this stock saying its a good buy based on future compelling news; and still touts the best outcome for this stock would be a buyout from AAPL or MSFT.

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3/28/13 - Not much action today but I managed a day trade and picked up some profits to pay for my losing lotto trades. I am now entering the risk zone on my April naked puts but I have time and cushion so I will just keep watching it. Depending on how the stock behaves, I may roll out to the next month when we get closer to expiration. For now I will let the premium bounce around and time decay. I am more than happy to get assigned the shares if that happens.

My current trades although I do NOT recommend you follow me on these with size. I am just speculating for now and will get serious next week. We need the earnings catalyst to move this stock in a big way.

3/27/13 - What happened? NFLX should have taken out $200 today off the news stories that hit, but nooooo there was a pesky SELLER. Hmmm, could it be Icahn is exiting with his massive profit? Well, if you look over the weekly chart you can see there is definitely a seller because NFLX will not trade over $198.

Typically, once a seller clears out, a stock will drive higher, but with NFLX already being up 100% this year, I suspect it may retreat until earnings are released. With tomorrow being the final trading day of the week and quarter, NFLX was definitely hit with portfolio reshuffling. So how do we figure out where this stock is headed next? Well, the best way I do that is looking over option volume and open interest.

Today the MarWk5 195 calls traded a whopping 15,213 contracts while the puts only traded 3k - 8k

Looking further into the future, there was a large amount of the Apr 185 Puts and 2200 195 calls. It looks like there are still more bulls interested than bears in the future.

The charts below must have the Bears wiping the saliva off the side of their mouths. As I have said before, I think the only way NFLX will take out $200 is with a gap over it; and I do not think there is really any more "news" that can be played out until earnings are announced on 4/22/13.

This stock is still capable of moving by leaps and bounds higher, but short interest is a lot lower, so it will definitely take a massive beat to make it a lasting rally beyond $200. With only 2 days to cover, that will not make a lasting rally on news stories like today's.

I know short sellers are just itching to get some revenge trading in this stock; and that can be a real bite in the ass if you get too aggressive. Still, if you are a gambler, the odds of a big pay off to the downside are pretty high based on the charts, so just pick your put options above the Fibo retracements to assure you are ITM on any sudden drops with weekly option plays—175, 170, 165 and long shot puts 155.

Entry is Key...Exit is Everything! TM

Entry is Key...Exit is Everything! ^TM