Here is how I
categorize my plays:
= SPECULATION - The ONLY time I recommend you take a shot on
these is during options expiration week or ahead of a very big news
event or earnings announcement. If you do them during expiration
week, you have practically zero time premium decay; therefore, any
movement in the stock gives you the best possible profit
opportunity. Occasionally I do them earlier in the month if I
anticipate a big earnings announcement or news event that could
potentially move the stock 10% or more.
=
UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY - These can be played anytime. You should
buy at least one month of time if you have less than two weeks to
expiration, or purchase the strike that is receiving the volume.
These are not for the buy and hold mentality. You have to be ready
to take a quick profit; and that can happen as fast as the very next
day, but typically within a few days. I recommend, if you cannot
watch it during the trading day, to put in a profit sell order (make
sure to tell your broker it's a GTC order—good til cancelled) at a
minimum of 30% over your purchase price; however, you have to decide
how much risk you are willing to take.
=
SPLIT - These are typically played a week to just a few days before
the split. If the stock is popular and has a tendency to move on
"news events", you can hold some of your profitable
play beyond the split date but more often than not, a split stock
will take a dip after that fact.
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