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Option
Trading College
Subject:
A month in the life of a
put
option |
Entry is Key...Exit is Everything! TM |
Session 1
There are many places on the internet to get options information, advice, suggested plays and a whole lot of sizzle, but hey...where's the steak?
Well, my trading friends, I have decided to give you a daily view of the life of an option contract. Each day I will post the opening and closing prices of four options: ITM, ATM, OTM and DOTM. We will watch how the option price is effected by the stocks movements throughout the month. I will also ad comments as we go along. I know this will open your eyes and bring home the need for you to really consider buying ONLY options that are ITM for short-term trades.
I am going to pick a very hot and volatile stock as our example. You will get to see how it reacts to the year end rally and how the options react to their earnings announcement...this is going to be fun!
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Session 2
Have you ever wondered how a front-month call option reacts to day-to-day changes in the price of the underlying stock? I would venture to say you, like most options traders, have never followed the life of an option for an entire month. Most of the time we are playing a guessing game and gambling for a big score, only hoping we made a correct choice before our option expires. I get asked multiple questions all the time like: How does an option price change? What makes it change so much? When would I know it's a good time to take a profit or cut a loss? In my other training modules I have often referred to the GREEKS, commonly called: Delta, Theta, Vega, Gamma, RHO. Each plays a pivotal point in the life of an options price movement, but you need a masters degree in abstract mathematics to figure them out on the fly. In fact, it takes a very sophisticated calculator to work out the probabilities of future prices in an options life, but that can be changed in a split second by unforeseen market forces...and greedy market makers!
So, my trading enthusiasts, I am going to keep track (for educational amusement) of the life of four call options, for the front month, from one expiration day to the next. I am going to pick a beloved stock that has a ton of volatility (Vega) and show you just how much time decay (Theta) can effect your profits and or losses. What you will find even more amazing is how much the price of the option will fluctuate (Delta) based on how much sun it gets...better known as "Gamma" radiation...lol. Now lets not forget about the horse race name RHO. Rho is the change in the options price given a one percentage point change in the risk-free interest rate. HA! There is certainly no "risk-free" opportunity when it comes to options trading. And that is what makes it so much fun...that is, if you are on the right side of the trade ;-)
Google is one of the hottest stocks over the past two years. It has very wide swings in price movement and reacts wildly to negative news, as well as positive news. The stock is extremely expensive, so millions of small investors use options to get their piece of this pie. What many/most of those investors do not realize is how dangerous trading a stock like Google can be. I like to play Puts more than Calls because the volatility of a Put will gain bigger profits than a call. When stocks get knocked down, the Put options get fat with profits quickly!
We are going to experience the wild price swings of this stock as it approaches earnings. This year (Jan 08) they are announcing in the middle of an expiration cycle so it's going to be interesting to see what they say and what happens next. I hope you learn valuable insight and save thousands of dollars from this great example. |
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We are going to pick four options to watch. I want you to see the swings in different options prices: ITM (safest) ATM (most expensive) OTM (gambling) DOTM (deep out of the money – Lottery plays)
Here are all the results for quick viewing, but be sure to look below for commentary and charts to show what really happened.
Below is a breakdown of the daily activity of these options:
Notice the open interest of these puts compared to the calls as we start this process. There are less speculators placing bets on DOTM puts than they are on the calls. This gives you some insight as to the sentiment and potential move. What we may find as we progress, what you see is actually NOT what you will get. Even though we see the calls are stacking up with more gambling it will go higher, often we know that the "crowd" is wrong more than they are right. This is going to a great learning lesson for you...I am very excited! |
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Google Inc (GOOG)Jan 21st, 2008 Close
The markets were closed today for Martin Luther King Jr.'s birthday. |
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Google Inc (GOOG)Jan 22nd, 2008 Close
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WOW! We could not get a better market to show the power of volatility than this one. Today, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a whopping .75 basis points. This sent the markets into a tail spin opening nearly 500 points down before rebounding nearly all of it on massive short covering and bargain hunting. Will this be the bottom for 2008? That remains to be seen. After the bell Apple announced earnings and made a hefty profit, but investors took it to the woodshed and spanked the crap out of the stock in after hours trading. I am sure this favorite will spring back as time marches on. The Apple news caused Google to slip lower in after hours. Take note the DOTM puts were up over 200% at the open!
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Google Inc (GOOG)Jan 23rd , 2008 Close
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Another day of deluge as Google gets decimated in early market trading. Once the bottom was put in place in the overall markets, Google and others had quite a snapback rally erasing most of the losses on the day but the stock is still down a hefty amount of points heading into earnings. As you can see from the wide price swings in these calls options, you have to have an iron stomach if you trade Google.
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Google Inc (GOOG)Jan 24th , 2008 Close
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After yesterday's roller coaster ride, Google showed some love and moved back over the 200 day moving average. This is a key support area for any stock, especially a heavy weight like Google. As earnings approach next week on the 31st, many investors are starting to place their bets. There are a lot more call DOTM speculators than put buyers.
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Google Inc (GOOG)Jan 25th , 2008 Close
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==================================================================================== What a week of volatility we had and what an awesome example of how options can swing wildly on a stock like Google! As you can see, if you were put buyer last week, you are a very happy camper right now and most likely should have bagged some profits! If you bought calls it's lick your wounds time and hope that this stock will get a move on next week into earnings. If you look at the DOTM puts vs. calls the call buyers are banking over 3:1 that Google pulls a rabbit out of its hat. We will see next week! Recent News:
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Google Inc (GOOG)Jan 28th , 2008 Close
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Not much action today but showing no love going into earnings this week. Volume was light and in after hours it traded down which does not bode well for call players at the moment. Put players just keep getting richer with this stock. |
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Google Inc (GOOG)Jan 29th , 2008 Close
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Great lesson on what happens to DOTM options. Even though Google went down today, these options actually lost money? Huh? That's right, they lost because they have zero intrinsic value and the MM can do whatever he pleases with the price. Even though the open interest increased the price still ended down for the day.
So far, Google is looking weaker heading into earnings. If they disappoint like Yahoo did, this stock could take a serious beating and our puts would catapult to new highs. I find it suspect these DOTM puts actually showed weakness today...hmmm...could be a sign to GET IN! |
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Google Inc (GOOG)Jan 30th , 2008 Close
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Tomorrow is the big day when Google announces earnings after the close. There are more puts being bought than calls which could mean a surprise and massive short covering rally. Now that the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates .500, things could get exciting tomorrow and Friday. Tomorrow is month end and I am suspect that Google will beat and the shorts will cover massively. We shall see. |
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Google Inc (GOOG)Jan 31st , 2008 Close
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Google announced earnings and missed analysts expectations. The stock was rocking during the day then plummeted nearly $60 bucks into the close and after earnings were announced. Tomorrow will be pivotal for the next few months as the stock finds bargain hunters or it continues the wholesale slaughter in its share price. Should the stock drop, the puts will BANK and we still have two weeks to expiration!
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Google Inc (GOOG)Feb 1st , 2008 Close
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MONSTER HOME RUNS ON THE PUTS - Notice the wide price swings, but still a huge winning day for the down side and we still have two weeks to go until expiration.
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Google Inc (GOOG)Feb 4th , 2008 Close
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The deluge keeps coming as Micro-softie flexes some muscle and puts in a bid for Yahoo. With their megabucks, Google can now face some tough competition in the future, and a high flying stocks price is solely based on future earnings power. The puts are BANKING now, but will we get a bargain hunting reversal starting tomorrow? |
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Google Inc (GOOG)Feb 5th , 2008 Close
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As I suspected last night, Google managed a snap back rally (albeit a small one) today putting on some green in the midst of a really red day on both indices. This could be shorts taking some profits and if yesterdays low does not hold it's going to be UGLY for the longs and SWEET for the puts!
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Google Inc (GOOG)Feb 6th , 2008 Close
sellers step back in as more selling pressure hits the markets. The big loser today was the CME which dropped over $100 bucks today! WOW - The DOTM puts banked today!
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Google Inc (GOOG)Feb 7th , 2008 Close
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Bouncing around at the $500 support area but with very little conviction. Notice the large swings in the opitons prices intra-day. As I said in my commentary, you have to have an iron stomach when you play options, even if they are in the money.
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Google Inc (GOOG)Feb 8th , 2008 Close
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Google moved on up today as the $500 support areas continues to hold ground. The stock closed near the highs of the day which could be a good thing heading into option expiration next week. Notice how the DOTM puts where cut literally in half today. It will be interesting to see how these play out next week.
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Google Inc (GOOG)Feb 8th , 2008 Close
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Nothing going on today. It's shaping up to be a very boring expiration week but anything can happen so time will tell as we watch the action develop.
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Google Inc (GOOG)Feb 12th , 2008 Close
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====================================================================================== Slipping into expiration and these calls will be expiring worthless. These puts are FAT with profit s and should stay that way!
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Google Inc (GOOG)Feb 13th , 2008 Close
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Nice day in the markets lifted Google from the basement of a big sell off. Notice now the DOTM puts were shellacked.
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Google Inc (GOOG)Feb 14th , 2008 Close
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===================================================================================== As the expiration comes Google slips and notice how the DOTM puts actually go down?? Open interest grew too as speculators jockey for position in hopes that Google will miraculously drop over $32 bucks and give them a profit....it could happen right?
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Google Inc (GOOG)Feb 15th , 2008 Close OPTION EXPIRATION DAY
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Expiration brings this training to a close. We had a very good run on the put side, and 3 out of 4 of the plays finished very profitable! Did you notice how the DOTM puts expired worthless? Even when things go your way, if you are too far from the action, you can still lose everything! Timing is critical when trading opitons, and as I always say, "Entry is Key....Exit is Everything!TM"
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Profits Up!
The donFranko
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